For those who are concerned that pro players will now have an increased edge with the data changes, the author the the Jund is Dead article addressed that point in the comments:
"David Ernenwein says:
July 11, 2017 at 1:55 pm
Your first paragraph is almost certainly correct. Such is the nature of the internet.
I sympathize, I’m in the same boat, but I actually think Pros are worse off than the common player. Without this data to check expectations and results it is much easier for the superteams to get their testing wrong. The best example I know of is from Pro Tour Philadelphia 2005. Kai Budde had a German superteam (for the time) around him to tackle the Champion/Betrayers of Kamigawa Block Constructed format. They came up with BW Journeyer’s Kite, a deck that crushed their expected metagame filled with Gx ramp decks. What they missed because at the time the data was not available was their vulnerability to White Weenie and how much better Gifts Ungiven was against Gx ramp. Since then the Star City Tour and MTGO data have prevented Pros from making those kind of bad reads. Because everyone is working from the same data set everyone is drawing similar conclusions and while each team isn’t inbred, I’d argue that the Pro Tour decks have become samey and uninspired. There’s less chance of wildly different rogue decks appearing now than before. As a result I think the pros will be forced to approach new metas the same way we mere mortals do, which will hurt the data crunchy superteams more than the rest of us."
I think this is accurate, I really doubt the pros are happy about this change, and they really would be if it was giving them a competitive edge (just speculation)
p.s. the first paragraph that David says is "almost certainly correct" :
"Modern seems awesome now, if incredibly different than it was a year ago. Maybe that’s part of why there are still some people voicing negative opinions: many top decks have been pushed out in favor of brand new ones"
"Modern seems awesome now, if incredibly different than it was a year ago. Maybe that’s part of why there are still some people voicing negative opinions: many top decks have been pushed out in favor of brand new ones"
Which is fairly disconcerting for a format that is supposed to be "non-rotating."
"Modern seems awesome now, if incredibly different than it was a year ago. Maybe that’s part of why there are still some people voicing negative opinions: many top decks have been pushed out in favor of brand new ones"
Which is fairly disconcerting for a format that is supposed to be "non-rotating."
Jund never "rotated out." It became unfavourable in the meta. Or are you once again alluding to the t-word? Because I don't think the context of this comment has anything to do with bans and I'd appreciate you not hijacking my point with your paraliptic twin spam.
"Modern seems awesome now, if incredibly different than it was a year ago. Maybe that’s part of why there are still some people voicing negative opinions: many top decks have been pushed out in favor of brand new ones"
Which is fairly disconcerting for a format that is supposed to be "non-rotating."
Jund never "rotated out." It became unfavourable in the meta. Or are you once again alluding to the t-word? Because I don't think the context of this comment has anything to do with bans and I'd appreciate you not hijacking my point with your paraliptic twin spam.
Who said anything about Twin? Nearly all Tier 1 decks that used to exist in Tier 1 for years are gone from relevance, either as a result of bans or because of the Eldrazi. That Nexus article really puts into spotlight the shifts we've had in the top decks and perhaps the leading cause behind it. We have a really weird looking Modern right now, mostly dominated by fast decks and big mana. It would be nice to have the aggro/midrange/ramp/combo/control blend we used to have represented in our top decks.
The Eldrazi are an issue, I think if not for the broken mana situation they can leverage, we would have Jund still rocking with Burn and Affinity, other than Twin, who's gone from Tier 1?
I don't think (outside twin) we are seeing any tier rotations, just movement in the meta, and that's a good thing.
Well, it's clear to me this thread has degnerated to the point that it's not even possible for people who want to talk about the state of Modern to do so here. Not sure what the solution is, but this thread probably needs to just die and be replaced by a new more inclusive on-topic thread and create a separate thread for the ad infinitum WotC bashers to go nuts.
its also funny how people on here see there pet deck doing well, and dont care about the health of the format or the fun of others. and say modern is fine! zero problems!
there are several sides to this argument, yours isnt the only one that exists.
I agree with you, I actually think Eldrazi Tron is warping modern more than realized.
I'm not calling for a temple ban or anything, but it is very much an observation I've been making, and only felt more confident in after reading yesterdays Modern Nexus article.
I think maybe it's not healthy that we're seeing a ton of decks cheating out big creatures with fast mana or delve/shadows for 1 mana.
I also agree Etron is a warping deck currently, but in that article both
"This trend was reinforced by the rise of Grixis Shadow. Bolt hits exactly Snapcaster Mage and Bolting a Shadow player is a dicey strategy. Inquistion is decent, but all the delve creatures hurt. The bottom line is that with two very good decks having a natural advantage over it, there was little chance for Jund to hold onto its traditional place in Tier 1."
and
"This is good for Shadow decks because Jund grinds well thanks to Terminate, Scavenging Ooze, and Kalitas, Traitor of Ghet, which gave it an edge on Shadow."
are both stated in the same paragraph? Which is it?
Why is having tier 1 Jund inherently better than tier 1 Eldatron? If you're going to argue linearity please keep in mind GDS and UW are non-linear and are both beneficiaries of the current meta.
The Eldrazi are an issue, I think if not for the broken mana situation they can leverage, we would have Jund still rocking with Burn and Affinity, other than Twin, who's gone from Tier 1?
I don't think (outside twin) we are seeing any tier rotations, just movement in the meta, and that's a good thing.
In addition to Twin, Infect comes to mind (which was in there basically until Probe's ban), traditional Gx Tron and all GBx midrange decks, as pointed out by the article, and usually a rotation of flavor-of-the-month reactive blue decks.
And instead, we have ETron, Dredge, Shadow, Valakut, Burn, and Affinity.
How much backlash would there be if there was a Temple ban? Would all the (non-titan) Eldrazi instantly become unplayable, or would there remain a reason to play them based on the abilities of Thought-Knot Seer, Reality Smasher, Matter Reshaper, Drowner of Hope, and Eldrazi Displacer?
Because if the existing Eldrazi archetypes could survive a Temple ban (like how dredge survived Troll ban) I would be much less opposed to the idea than if a ban would make the decks obsolete and current eldrazi players would need to build completely new decks.
How much backlash would there be if there was a Temple ban? Would all the (non-titan) Eldrazi instantly become unplayable, or would there remain a reason to play them based on the abilities of Thought-Knot Seer, Reality Smasher, Matter Reshaper, Drowner of Hope, and Eldrazi Displacer?
Because if the existing Eldrazi archetypes could survive a Temple ban (like how dredge survived Troll ban) I would be much less opposed to the idea than if a ban would make the decks obsolete and current eldrazi players would need to build completely new decks.
Replace the temple with additional mana dorks or other "fair" ramp. Having a pain-free 2-mana land with no meaningful drawback is totally unreasonable. Temple MIGHT be fine if they took off the first line of text and required the land only be used to cast Eldrazi creatures.
How much backlash would there be if there was a Temple ban? Would all the (non-titan) Eldrazi instantly become unplayable, or would there remain a reason to play them based on the abilities of Thought-Knot Seer, Reality Smasher, Matter Reshaper, Drowner of Hope, and Eldrazi Displacer?
Because if the existing Eldrazi archetypes could survive a Temple ban (like how dredge survived Troll ban) I would be much less opposed to the idea than if a ban would make the decks obsolete and current eldrazi players would need to build completely new decks.
I honestly think all eldrazi decks disappear overnight. Bant eldrazi already isn't top tier. E-tron probably just reverts to Gx Tron.
The thing with dredge it was so clearly way ahead of the curve, eldrazi are quite subtle in that most players think it is shadow doing damage to the format.
I honestly hate bans and would rather see unbans to compensate. Also ceremonious rejections is a house against that deck as is. I do feel that we're only a few cards away from a near perfectly balanced format.
Edit - Just been considering a comparison, I think removing temple would be similar to removing mox opal from affinity.
So assuming this change doesn’t get reverted, what’s going to happen? People aren’t going to magically decide to become innovative. Sorry, it doesn’t work like that. Instead we’ll see an even stricter adherence to the "This Top 8'd a Pro Tour/Grand Prix, so I'm going to jam this." Those are the most useful data points remaining, so all you do is emphasize them more. I sure hope we never have an awkward Top 8 consisting of seven of the same deck or it’d be really easy to build a misleading narrative...
Speaking of building narratives, the secondary result of this is that people who are interested in the bleeding edge technology are going to rely on content creators. Who better to give you at least some idea than the people battling a ton of Magic? What about Magic Online grinders who, while not able to give you a big picture, can at least track their matches over hundreds of games? Anecdotal evidence is the big winner here and the same goes for anyone who wants to push a certain deck or version of a deck.
Refined decks will become a thing of the past, as our ability to see mutations in the core of decks will be limited at best.
How to Fix It
Release all the data. You want a cut off? Release all the 5-0 and 4-1 decks, and let people figure it out for themselves. Letting us see the 4-1s might actually let rogue decks gain more of a foothold.
At a bare minimum, roll back this change for every non-Standard format. Standard is the only format we should be worrying about becoming outright solved. With Modern and Legacy it becomes blatantly obvious what the problem cards are over a long enough time frame. You aren’t helping anyone by limiting that data, just making it worse for the enthusiasts of those formats.
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Modern UBR Grixis Shadow UBR UR Izzet Phoenix UR UW UW Control UW GB GB Rock GB
Commander BG Meren of Clan Nel Toth BG BGUW Atraxa, Praetor's Voice BGUW
The idea that Jund is any less warping than Eldrazi Tron is silly to me. ANY deck that is doing well in the Modern meta will warp the meta around it, and Jund is no exception. The only difference is that Jund has been a "key player" or "pillar" of Modern for as long as Modern has existed such that most people have become accustomed to it and accustomed to making the necessary deckbuilding choices mitigate that warping.
Turn 1 Thoughtseize or Inquisition into turn 2 efficient threat into turn 3 Liliana is no less warping than the possibility of turn 2 Thought Knot Seer.
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Well, I can saw a woman in two, but you won't wanna look in the box when I'm through.
People missing the impact of constant iteration, good times.
When you can literally grind 24/7 (or until you have a heart attack from the energy drinks) thats going to refine a deck.
I have this feeling most people dont understand or respect the impact of online play, in anything. People can grind for hours on end. Thats a lot more than just playing FNM and getting 4 games in.
The idea that Jund is any less warping than Eldrazi Tron is silly to me. ANY deck that is doing well in the Modern meta will warp the meta around it, and Jund is no exception. The only difference is that Jund has been a "key player" or "pillar" of Modern for as long as Modern has existed such that most people have become accustomed to it and accustomed to making the necessary deckbuilding choices mitigate that warping.
Turn 1 Thoughtseize or Inquisition into turn 2 efficient threat into turn 3 Liliana is no less warping than the possibility of turn 2 Thought Knot Seer.
Completely untrue.
TKS and Realitysmasher, 'on curve' are way more efficient than Discard, Goyf, Lilly.
The first, was the basis of breaking the format and is Tier 1.
The second, was just part of the meta, tier 1, but 'fair' and not even close to the same as the invalidation of any number of cards as those 2 eldrazi alone. Its the 2 for 1 nature of these cards, on top of pushed bodies, in COMBO with broken mana...like come on its not even close to the same thing.
The idea that Jund is any less warping than Eldrazi Tron is silly to me. ANY deck that is doing well in the Modern meta will warp the meta around it, and Jund is no exception. The only difference is that Jund has been a "key player" or "pillar" of Modern for as long as Modern has existed such that most people have become accustomed to it and accustomed to making the necessary deckbuilding choices mitigate that warping.
Turn 1 Thoughtseize or Inquisition into turn 2 efficient threat into turn 3 Liliana is no less warping than the possibility of turn 2 Thought Knot Seer.
Completely untrue.
TKS and Realitysmasher, 'on curve' are way more efficient than Discard, Goyf, Lilly.
The first, was the basis of breaking the format and is Tier 1.
The second, was just part of the meta, tier 1, but 'fair' and not even close to the same as the invalidation of any number of cards as those 2 eldrazi alone. Its the 2 for 1 nature of these cards, on top of pushed bodies, in COMBO with broken mana...like come on its not even close to the same thing.
the card itself really isn't worth the card board its printed on...does it serve a purpose? Sure its a blue 1 drop that might not be a 1/1. I would not put it in a list and expect to win a PTQ or GP though.
Tron is just "casting a fatty" when they play Ulamog on turn 4, is that a fair play to you?
That's all they're doing? Tron must be super fair to allow you even a chance to recover from it's optimal turn 4 play - most modern decks would just kill you on turn 4 if you aren't going to interact with their best play.
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Modern Decks
KnightfallGWUR
Azorius Control UW
Burn RBG
The idea that Jund is any less warping than Eldrazi Tron is silly to me. ANY deck that is doing well in the Modern meta will warp the meta around it, and Jund is no exception. The only difference is that Jund has been a "key player" or "pillar" of Modern for as long as Modern has existed such that most people have become accustomed to it and accustomed to making the necessary deckbuilding choices mitigate that warping.
Turn 1 Thoughtseize or Inquisition into turn 2 efficient threat into turn 3 Liliana is no less warping than the possibility of turn 2 Thought Knot Seer.
Completely untrue.
TKS and Realitysmasher, 'on curve' are way more efficient than Discard, Goyf, Lilly.
The first, was the basis of breaking the format and is Tier 1.
The second, was just part of the meta, tier 1, but 'fair' and not even close to the same as the invalidation of any number of cards as those 2 eldrazi alone. Its the 2 for 1 nature of these cards, on top of pushed bodies, in COMBO with broken mana...like come on its not even close to the same thing.
>casting fatties
>unfair
i love this thread
Considering "casting fatties" was the basis for the entirety of Eldrazi Winter, then yeah, I'd say it can be unfair. It's especially unfair when the "fatty" is incredibly pushed with great stats and hugely impactful abilities stapled on at an undercosted rate and being powered out by an untapped land that makes 2 mana with no drawback.
the card itself really isn't worth the card board its printed on...does it serve a purpose? Sure its a blue 1 drop that might not be a 1/1. I would not put it in a list and expect to win a PTQ or GP though.
The idea that Jund is any less warping than Eldrazi Tron is silly to me. ANY deck that is doing well in the Modern meta will warp the meta around it, and Jund is no exception. The only difference is that Jund has been a "key player" or "pillar" of Modern for as long as Modern has existed such that most people have become accustomed to it and accustomed to making the necessary deckbuilding choices mitigate that warping.
Turn 1 Thoughtseize or Inquisition into turn 2 efficient threat into turn 3 Liliana is no less warping than the possibility of turn 2 Thought Knot Seer.
Completely untrue.
TKS and Realitysmasher, 'on curve' are way more efficient than Discard, Goyf, Lilly.
The first, was the basis of breaking the format and is Tier 1.
The second, was just part of the meta, tier 1, but 'fair' and not even close to the same as the invalidation of any number of cards as those 2 eldrazi alone. Its the 2 for 1 nature of these cards, on top of pushed bodies, in COMBO with broken mana...like come on its not even close to the same thing.
>casting fatties
>unfair
i love this thread
Casting Eldrazi way ahead of curve, using fast mana, these are not things which are fair, in any objective definition of the word within the context of Magic.
I enjoy that you get away with a fair bit of trolling around here since you are a minor celebrity and all, but Turn 2 TKS vs Turn 2 Scavenging Ooze is not comparable in terms of power and everyone who isnt trolling knows it.
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UW Spirits
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"David Ernenwein says:
July 11, 2017 at 1:55 pm
Your first paragraph is almost certainly correct. Such is the nature of the internet.
I sympathize, I’m in the same boat, but I actually think Pros are worse off than the common player. Without this data to check expectations and results it is much easier for the superteams to get their testing wrong. The best example I know of is from Pro Tour Philadelphia 2005. Kai Budde had a German superteam (for the time) around him to tackle the Champion/Betrayers of Kamigawa Block Constructed format. They came up with BW Journeyer’s Kite, a deck that crushed their expected metagame filled with Gx ramp decks. What they missed because at the time the data was not available was their vulnerability to White Weenie and how much better Gifts Ungiven was against Gx ramp. Since then the Star City Tour and MTGO data have prevented Pros from making those kind of bad reads. Because everyone is working from the same data set everyone is drawing similar conclusions and while each team isn’t inbred, I’d argue that the Pro Tour decks have become samey and uninspired. There’s less chance of wildly different rogue decks appearing now than before. As a result I think the pros will be forced to approach new metas the same way we mere mortals do, which will hurt the data crunchy superteams more than the rest of us."
I think this is accurate, I really doubt the pros are happy about this change, and they really would be if it was giving them a competitive edge (just speculation)
p.s. the first paragraph that David says is "almost certainly correct" :
"Modern seems awesome now, if incredibly different than it was a year ago. Maybe that’s part of why there are still some people voicing negative opinions: many top decks have been pushed out in favor of brand new ones"
fo sho imo
U Merfolk
UB Tezzerator
UB Mill
Which is fairly disconcerting for a format that is supposed to be "non-rotating."
UR ....... WUBR ........... WB ............. RGW ........ UBR ....... WUB .... BGU
Spells / Blink & Combo / Token Grind / Dino Tribal / Draw Cards / Zombies / Reanimate
Jund never "rotated out." It became unfavourable in the meta. Or are you once again alluding to the t-word? Because I don't think the context of this comment has anything to do with bans and I'd appreciate you not hijacking my point with your paraliptic twin spam.
edit: looked up the proper word
U Merfolk
UB Tezzerator
UB Mill
Who said anything about Twin? Nearly all Tier 1 decks that used to exist in Tier 1 for years are gone from relevance, either as a result of bans or because of the Eldrazi. That Nexus article really puts into spotlight the shifts we've had in the top decks and perhaps the leading cause behind it. We have a really weird looking Modern right now, mostly dominated by fast decks and big mana. It would be nice to have the aggro/midrange/ramp/combo/control blend we used to have represented in our top decks.
UR ....... WUBR ........... WB ............. RGW ........ UBR ....... WUB .... BGU
Spells / Blink & Combo / Token Grind / Dino Tribal / Draw Cards / Zombies / Reanimate
I don't think (outside twin) we are seeing any tier rotations, just movement in the meta, and that's a good thing.
Spirits
I also agree Etron is a warping deck currently, but in that article both
"This trend was reinforced by the rise of Grixis Shadow. Bolt hits exactly Snapcaster Mage and Bolting a Shadow player is a dicey strategy. Inquistion is decent, but all the delve creatures hurt. The bottom line is that with two very good decks having a natural advantage over it, there was little chance for Jund to hold onto its traditional place in Tier 1."
and
"This is good for Shadow decks because Jund grinds well thanks to Terminate, Scavenging Ooze, and Kalitas, Traitor of Ghet, which gave it an edge on Shadow."
are both stated in the same paragraph? Which is it?
U Merfolk
UB Tezzerator
UB Mill
Simple.
Spirits
In addition to Twin, Infect comes to mind (which was in there basically until Probe's ban), traditional Gx Tron and all GBx midrange decks, as pointed out by the article, and usually a rotation of flavor-of-the-month reactive blue decks.
And instead, we have ETron, Dredge, Shadow, Valakut, Burn, and Affinity.
UR ....... WUBR ........... WB ............. RGW ........ UBR ....... WUB .... BGU
Spells / Blink & Combo / Token Grind / Dino Tribal / Draw Cards / Zombies / Reanimate
Because if the existing Eldrazi archetypes could survive a Temple ban (like how dredge survived Troll ban) I would be much less opposed to the idea than if a ban would make the decks obsolete and current eldrazi players would need to build completely new decks.
Replace the temple with additional mana dorks or other "fair" ramp. Having a pain-free 2-mana land with no meaningful drawback is totally unreasonable. Temple MIGHT be fine if they took off the first line of text and required the land only be used to cast Eldrazi creatures.
UR ....... WUBR ........... WB ............. RGW ........ UBR ....... WUB .... BGU
Spells / Blink & Combo / Token Grind / Dino Tribal / Draw Cards / Zombies / Reanimate
I honestly think all eldrazi decks disappear overnight. Bant eldrazi already isn't top tier. E-tron probably just reverts to Gx Tron.
The thing with dredge it was so clearly way ahead of the curve, eldrazi are quite subtle in that most players think it is shadow doing damage to the format.
I honestly hate bans and would rather see unbans to compensate. Also ceremonious rejections is a house against that deck as is. I do feel that we're only a few cards away from a near perfectly balanced format.
Edit - Just been considering a comparison, I think removing temple would be similar to removing mox opal from affinity.
Legacy - LED Dredge, ANT & WDnT
Here's an excerpt I think really nailed it:
UBR Grixis Shadow UBR
UR Izzet Phoenix UR
UW UW Control UW
GB GB Rock GB
Commander
BG Meren of Clan Nel Toth BG
BGUW Atraxa, Praetor's Voice BGUW
U Merfolk
UB Tezzerator
UB Mill
This isn't 1993
UR ....... WUBR ........... WB ............. RGW ........ UBR ....... WUB .... BGU
Spells / Blink & Combo / Token Grind / Dino Tribal / Draw Cards / Zombies / Reanimate
Turn 1 Thoughtseize or Inquisition into turn 2 efficient threat into turn 3 Liliana is no less warping than the possibility of turn 2 Thought Knot Seer.
When you can literally grind 24/7 (or until you have a heart attack from the energy drinks) thats going to refine a deck.
I have this feeling most people dont understand or respect the impact of online play, in anything. People can grind for hours on end. Thats a lot more than just playing FNM and getting 4 games in.
Spirits
Completely untrue.
TKS and Realitysmasher, 'on curve' are way more efficient than Discard, Goyf, Lilly.
The first, was the basis of breaking the format and is Tier 1.
The second, was just part of the meta, tier 1, but 'fair' and not even close to the same as the invalidation of any number of cards as those 2 eldrazi alone. Its the 2 for 1 nature of these cards, on top of pushed bodies, in COMBO with broken mana...like come on its not even close to the same thing.
Spirits
>unfair
i love this thread
Counter-Cat
Colorless Eldrazi Stompy
UBR Grixis Shadow UBR
UR Izzet Phoenix UR
UW UW Control UW
GB GB Rock GB
Commander
BG Meren of Clan Nel Toth BG
BGUW Atraxa, Praetor's Voice BGUW
KnightfallGWUR
Azorius Control UW
Burn RBG
Considering "casting fatties" was the basis for the entirety of Eldrazi Winter, then yeah, I'd say it can be unfair. It's especially unfair when the "fatty" is incredibly pushed with great stats and hugely impactful abilities stapled on at an undercosted rate and being powered out by an untapped land that makes 2 mana with no drawback.
UR ....... WUBR ........... WB ............. RGW ........ UBR ....... WUB .... BGU
Spells / Blink & Combo / Token Grind / Dino Tribal / Draw Cards / Zombies / Reanimate
See: Twin, Cruise Delver, UW Eldrazi, DRS Jund, etc.
Can you define unfair in a sentence?
Counter-Cat
Colorless Eldrazi Stompy
Casting Eldrazi way ahead of curve, using fast mana, these are not things which are fair, in any objective definition of the word within the context of Magic.
I enjoy that you get away with a fair bit of trolling around here since you are a minor celebrity and all, but Turn 2 TKS vs Turn 2 Scavenging Ooze is not comparable in terms of power and everyone who isnt trolling knows it.
Spirits