How is it clear it wasnt the worst choice? Every other version of Twin was as, or in the case of pure UR, more successful?
Twin didnt die on the backs of URx Twin decks, it died, because of the consistent performance of UR.
EDIT: And in the same post you claim 'years of experience mean nothing'.
I think we are either talking past eachother, or hitting some misunderstanding impasse because if we cannot look at where UR was historically, then why is the supposed rise of UWR kept as a data point, when we can look back JUST A FEW MONTHS at a deck that was supposedly THE GREATEST MODERN DECK SINCE ELDRAZI WINTER, and now its what, Tier 2/3?
None of us know anything, that much is true. If we throw out historical performance, we REALLY know nothing.
Jeskai Twin was not the worst choice clearly, it's just that Bianchi saw that splashing white mainly for path to exile and not lightning Helix as people thought was the thing to do.
Jeskai Twin was a "sleeper" sub-archetype that skyrocketed and was on its way to become Tier 1 and surpass Ur and Grixis for a brief period of time in a BGx infested meta(then fall a bit again) and that's what Bianchi is saying actually.
It really wasn't. Lots of people tried playing it and many of them had mediocre-to-poor results. The deck was not a deeply kept secret, it was something that naturally trended down because it was generally worse than at least 2 or 3 other similar, better options.
I dont man, UWR was never top of the Twin pile, because it was too far spread out, for too little gain in the mirror, and adding AV and SFM would further dilute it.
It wouldnt be a BAD deck, but I dont believe it would be a better deck for adding those cards, and my point with you saying 'but it won a GP!' well, lots of decks have, that doesnt mean they are flat out world beaters.
Remember when like, 2 months ago, DS Jund was going to 100% take over Modern and stop any other deck from seeing play?
Yeah, I do, where is it now?
stil here in grixis shadow. Selfdamage, big creatures.
Exactly, it changed. To the point where if you had a choice between the 2, right now there is zero point in playing Jund instead of Grixis versions.
Yet, again, there was near universal agreement and panic that DSJ was not just the best deck in the format, but it was fundamentally unstoppable.
We, as players, can make educated guesses, but not even the pro's that both didnt see DSJ coming and then claimed it was insurmountably good, are doing the exact same thing we are.
Jeskai Twin was not the worst choice clearly, it's just that Bianchi saw that splashing white mainly for path to exile and not lightning Helix as people thought was the thing to do.
Jeskai Twin was a "sleeper" sub-archetype that skyrocketed and was on its way to become Tier 1 and surpass Ur and Grixis for a brief period of time in a BGx infested meta(then fall a bit again) and that's what Bianchi is saying actually.
I mean, it wasn't a bad deck, I think that much is clear, but it was widely considered to be the weakest Twin build by pretty much everyone who played Twin. The reason is that it was trying to improve the grind game over the UR build, but it just wasn't as good at that as the Grixis build. Basically, if you were playing Jeskai Twin, you had to ask yourself why you weren't just playing Grixis Twin instead, since it had the same goal but was better. That feeling was backed up by MTGGoldfish's publication of match results in mid 2015, where Jeskai Twin's overall win percentage came in waaaaay lower than UR or Grixis. It was about 15% lower than UR and 12% lower than Grixis. And that was with almost 600 matches played on the deck, which is a decent sample size.
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Modern UBR Grixis Shadow UBR UR Izzet Phoenix UR UW UW Control UW GB GB Rock GB
Commander BG Meren of Clan Nel Toth BG BGUW Atraxa, Praetor's Voice BGUW
Yet, again, there was near universal agreement and panic that DSJ was not just the best deck in the format, but it was fundamentally unstoppable.
We, as players, can make educated guesses, but not even the pro's that both didnt see DSJ coming and then claimed it was insurmountably good, are doing the exact same thing we are.
This is one of the biggest problems I have with the pro community and some of the content writers out there. They like to drive narratives, and because they're good players a lot of people will listen to them and accept their opinions as basically fact. But a lot of these people have no clue what the hell they're talking about. Many of them don't play enough Modern to actually have a clue. There were pros saying that AV and SotM were way too powerful for Modern for years before their unbanning, and many pros still say that SFM is too powerful, which is a joke to anyone who plays a lot of Modern. Those who actually do play Modern often have their judgement completely clouded by bias, like when Todd Stevens said on a stream that Grixis Shadow was favored against UW Control. That's just laughably wrong.
These pros really do drive the direction of the meta at times with these narratives. Like iDsurge mentioned, they were saying that Jund Shadow was by far the best deck for months, until its vulnerabilities were exposed and the Grixis version emerged as possibly the better build. So now they're saying the Grixis version is too strong, despite the continuous stream of results both on mtgo and in paper that show that the deck is not hurting diversity or dominating the format. But because these pros are very vocal, I wouldn't be surprised if WotC makes a ban decision despite the data just because the pro narrative has stirred up a lot of ban-mania. I really wish people like LSV and even the TCC Professor from youtube would be more responsible with their ban talk, because it's not healthy for the format.
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Modern UBR Grixis Shadow UBR UR Izzet Phoenix UR UW UW Control UW GB GB Rock GB
Commander BG Meren of Clan Nel Toth BG BGUW Atraxa, Praetor's Voice BGUW
The nice thing about Grixis death's shadow being the best deck is you can play a lot of decks that have a good matchup against it, like Death and Taxes, BW tokens, or burn.
The better it does, the more those other decks will rise, which should keep it in check.
I just don't understand any claims for a ban in the deck. I do however, believe that some unbans like BBE would be good now.
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Modern
JundBGR
RW Blood MoonRW
Pauper
Delver U
Elves G
Control B
Commander
Edgar Markov BRW
Captain Sisay GW
Niv-Mizzet, Parun UR
Tymna and Ravos WB
Yet, again, there was near universal agreement and panic that DSJ was not just the best deck in the format, but it was fundamentally unstoppable.
We, as players, can make educated guesses, but not even the pro's that both didnt see DSJ coming and then claimed it was insurmountably good, are doing the exact same thing we are.
This is one of the biggest problems I have with the pro community and some of the content writers out there. They like to drive narratives, and because they're good players a lot of people will listen to them and accept their opinions as basically fact. But a lot of these people have no clue what the hell they're talking about. Many of them don't play enough Modern to actually have a clue. There were pros saying that AV and SotM were way too powerful for Modern for years before their unbanning, and many pros still say that SFM is too powerful, which is a joke to anyone who plays a lot of Modern. Those who actually do play Modern often have their judgement completely clouded by bias, like when Todd Stevens said on a stream that Grixis Shadow was favored against UW Control. That's just laughably wrong.
These pros really do drive the direction of the meta at times with these narratives. Like iDsurge mentioned, they were saying that Jund Shadow was by far the best deck for months, until its vulnerabilities were exposed and the Grixis version emerged as possibly the better build. So now they're saying the Grixis version is too strong, despite the continuous stream of results both on mtgo and in paper that show that the deck is not hurting diversity or dominating the format. But because these pros are very vocal, I wouldn't be surprised if WotC makes a ban decision despite the data just because the pro narrative has stirred up a lot of ban-mania. I really wish people like LSV and even the TCC Professor from youtube would be more responsible with their ban talk, because it's not healthy for the format.
or people are playing the deck not because it is too powerful but because it is the best option for bgx and urx against big mana...
in a different meta death shadow would not be as strong. in fact it wasn't before. its just a good meta call right now because big mana is literally 1/3 of the top 8..
a good fix to this is to give us a proactive non shadow wincon to diversify bgx and urx a bit more(sfm). and see if that helps.
Gkourou, I have to stop you here. You are totally changing your tune here, you never had these opinions about Jeskai Twin two years ago, not anywhere close to this
You're seriously grasping at straws here, one tournament by Bianci and you're claiming it was on its way to skyrocketing to tier 1? This sounds incredibly biased, uninformed and with no data to back it up. The deck had close to no results, people played it for fun, playing with tap-lands was usually a serious handicap for Twin. In fact, wasn't Grixis Twin barely clinging to tier 1 at the time of the ban?
Patrick Dickman was a beast with Temur Twin, it doesn't mean it was a tier 1 deck.
The others are right, decks like Skred have won major tournaments, it doesn't mean it's a top tier deck--it's incredibly weird you're taking this stance now. Do I believe Jeskai Twin could have some potential now? Sure. But it's also possible the SFM package and AV would dilute the deck too much. The AV would probably be in the board.
I imagine there won't be any changes come August. If we are simply going off whats available to the public, modern is looking very diverse. I mean, MTGO could literally show Shadow is a beyond broken, but that isn't something we can see
Based off what seems public, the deck actually seems good for the meta.
I am a little surprised how well Eldrazi/Tron is doing, I'm also shocked 1/3rd of the top decks are big mana, that's literally an unplayable meta for GBx decks, not even sure how they're posting any results.
Eldrazi Tron - hits expedition map and maybe relic. (4-6 cards)
Mono white death and taxes - Aether Vial, Thraben Inspector, Path to Exile (12 cards)
Jund/Rock/Abzan - Thoughtseize, Inquisition, Path to Exile, Fatal Push (varies, but probably around 12. More if Traverse is involved)
UR Gifts Storm - Serum Visions and Sleight of hand (8 cards)
Burn - Lightning Bolt, Swiftspear, Goblin Guide, Lava Spike (16+)
Affinity - Signal Pest, Springleaf Drum (8)
Kiki Chord - Path, Birds of Paradise (8)
RG Tron - Maps, Stars + Spheres, Ancient Stirrings, maybe relics (16-18)
Dredge - Insolent Neonate + Faithless Looting (8)
Jeskai Control - Lightning Bolt, Path, Serum Visions (12)
R/W Prison - Usually none because it plays Chalice
Breach Titan - Sometimes zero in the mainboard, otherwise Fatal Push or Bolts
Amulet Titan - Visions, Stirings, Amulet, Sakura-Tribe Scout (16)
So it turns out Mental Misstep really does have plenty of targets, only falling short against Eldrazi Tron, Valakut decks, RW Prison, and affinity
The decks with the most targets are Grixis Shadow, Burn, Amulet, and the non-Eldrazi Tron.
Would this be enough for the card to see mainboard play? Most certainly.
Would it warp the meta too much or force every deck to mainboard 4 Missteps? I don't think so. Too many archetypes would be diluted by needlessly playing Misstep.
In the end there is only one way to find out, but I like that the card improves the Tron and Burn matchups for control. It could always be re-banned, and it's only an uncommon. This isn't Jace we are talking about here
Misstep is only good against a few of the top decks but would help out Ux control immensely, and elf would help revitalize the dying Jund archetype
You know there's nothing going on in Modern ban/unban land when Misstep is on someone's radar. The card is super duper busted and disproportionately helps unfair strategies. What do all the following Modern regulatory spells have in common: Push, Path, Thoughtseize, Inquisition of Kozilek, and Bolt. Yeah, I'll pass on Misstep. I swear, people who suggest this don't seem to have experienced that card in action.
It's a doubly perplexing suggestion with DS doing so well. Can you even imagine the DS mirror when 50% of the format is playing Misstep DS decks? Dear god. I'd rather we go back to the Twin conversation than entertain Misstep conversation.
You know...these MTGO stats have me checking the size on my tin foil hat....
We know they don't release all 5-0?
We know they cherry pick or (at best) it's random?
Is it too far to think that with Wizards hiding data from MTGO, and not releasing all the info...are they trying to shape meta perceptions?
Thats why i can only assume the meta looks good on perception, they could be hiding that Shadow decks are 2/3rds of the 5-0 records on MTGO, which would point to a deck thats beyond broken
I'm only making assumptions on public available records
I wish WOTC wouldn't hide all of this
They want people to stop net decking, but screw them, people will copy the innovators and will tweak or optimize from the pioneers, thats how it works in evert type of competitive game.
Jesus Christ, I just looked on mtggoldfish for the top 12 decks, it's an absolute nightmare meta for GBx decks, it doesn't even see a positive matchup ratio until UR Storm, maybe Company depending on how the 75 is built
Holy hell, Grixis Shadow looked like the only viable midrange deck
If UW Control can dodge the big mana matchups, it looks like a favorable deck choice.
The meta is diverse, but it looks so bad for midrange decks to handle
Poor Jund, it looks super not viable outside of an FNM
Jesus Christ, I just looked on mtggoldfish for the top 12 decks, it's an absolute nightmare meta for GBx decks, it doesn't even see a positive matchup ratio until UR Storm, maybe Company depending on how the 75 is built
Holy hell, Grixis Shadow looked like the only viable midrange deck
If UW Control can dodge the big mana matchups, it looks like a favorable deck choice.
The meta is diverse, but it looks so bad for midrange decks to handle
Poor Jund, it looks super not viable outside of an FNM
If UW Control can dodge the big mana matchups, it looks like a favorable deck choice.
UW does not lose to the big mana decks except maybe Titanshift, which I haven't played enough to have much of an opinion on. Amulet Titan is also dicey once Cavern is online, but that's barely Tier 3. Ceremonious Rejection has totally changed the Tron matchups though, especially with 4 Seas and your Tec Edge/Quarter split. You really can just counter everything Gx Tron does while simultaneously shutting down their lands. E-Tron is closer but feels around 45-55, with that -5% edge going to E-Tron when they get nutty Temple openers.
Misstep is only good against a few of the top decks but would help out Ux control immensely, and elf would help revitalize the dying Jund archetype
You know there's nothing going on in Modern ban/unban land when Misstep is on someone's radar. The card is super duper busted and disproportionately helps unfair strategies. What do all the following Modern regulatory spells have in common: Push, Path, Thoughtseize, Inquisition of Kozilek, and Bolt. Yeah, I'll pass on Misstep. I swear, people who suggest this don't seem to have experienced that card in action.
It's a doubly perplexing suggestion with DS doing so well. Can you even imagine the DS mirror when 50% of the format is playing Misstep DS decks? Dear god. I'd rather we go back to the Twin conversation than entertain Misstep conversation.
I normally agree with just about everything you say, but in this case I am going to have to respectfully disagree. I think you are overestimating the card.
DS mirrors with Misstep would play out more or less the same as these mirrors already do with players trading resources via Thoughtseize, Inquisition, Fatal Push, ect. The main difference is that turn 1 Thoughtseize can now be countered on the draw. Is this really that much different?
Also please tell me which unfair strategies would run Misstep? Here are the decks that would most likely not play it: Burn, Affinity, UR Storm, Counters Company, Goryo's Vengeance, Cheerios, Gx Tron, Eldrazi Tron, Dredge, Ironworks Combo, Infect, RW Prison
Remember in legacy Misstep actually pushed combo out of the format. The decks that ran it were mostly aggro-control or pure control strategies.
So please back up your argument that it would "disproportionately helps unfair strategies" when in legacy it actually did the opposite.
If UW Control can dodge the big mana matchups, it looks like a favorable deck choice.
UW does not lose to the big mana decks except maybe Titanshift, which I haven't played enough to have much of an opinion on. Amulet Titan is also dicey once Cavern is online, but that's barely Tier 3. Ceremonious Rejection has totally changed the Tron matchups though, especially with 4 Seas and your Tec Edge/Quarter split. You really can just counter everything Gx Tron does while simultaneously shutting down their lands. E-Tron is closer but feels around 45-55, with that -5% edge going to E-Tron when they get nutty Temple openers.
I always forget that UW Control beats up on Eldrazi, especially with supreme verdict
I imagine the traditional tron matchups are still bad, unless rejection is a huge boon there, too
Ok, good, I'm glad from your experience that Rejection actually changed that matchup. Thank god, if blue fair decks can at least not fold to Tron I feel better.
I wonder if midrange decks without blue are being left behind in the meta for now. It happens, and I'm not complaining, it does made me sad though; fulminators is still garbage that's obligated to run
Rejection has been fantastic in testing, countering so much of the format with 1 mana and then flashing it back with snaps feels good. Stubborn denial being so easy to activate has really shown how much a cheap counter helps blue out; yes, it's a 1 mana counter as opposed to 2, but man, it's so relevant throughout most of a game in Shadow.
So please back up your argument that it would "disproportionately helps unfair strategies" when in legacy it actually did the opposite.
Right now, it would help DS decks before all else and Grixis DS would be Tier 0. After MM forced Wizards to ban at least one card from DS, then it would switch to helping unfair decks. The Legacy comparison doesn't work at all because Legacy has far more policing cards in the format that are already encouraging fair play; Wasteland, Daze, and FoW just to name the big three. MM even synergized with FoW which was yet another reason it did so much for fairer Legacy decks. None of that applies to Modern.
Eventually, I'm sure MM Modern would reach an equilibrium of fair decks and unfair decks where everyone was playing MM and there would be no reason for the majority of decks not to play the card. MM Storm and MM Infect sound particularly enjoyable, but then you'd also have MM Delver decks and some MM midrange and control. Sure, you'd get some decks that wouldn't run MM (Eldrazi wouldn't), but basically everyone else would. It would be super polarizing and completely rampant. That's exactly why it was banned in the first place in all the formats where it is illegal, and Wizards definitely won't want to risk it here.
As is always the case, the burden of proof rests with the unban camp. If you have any evidence about why you think it's fair, I'd love to see it. Until then, I'm going to defer to the extensive history of MM being problematic in basically every format it touched.
I imagine the traditional tron matchups are still bad, unless rejection is a huge boon there, too
E-Tron is a tougher one. Traditional Tron is not at all; unless they nut draw you and you kept a bad hand, you really can counter everything and stop their mana development.
You know...these MTGO stats have me checking the size on my tin foil hat....
We know they don't release all 5-0?
We know they cherry pick or (at best) it's random?
Is it too far to think that with Wizards hiding data from MTGO, and not releasing all the info...are they trying to shape meta perceptions?
Thats why i can only assume the meta looks good on perception, they could be hiding that Shadow decks are 2/3rds of the 5-0 records on MTGO, which would point to a deck thats beyond broken
I'm pretty sure AF said recently that the published 5-0s are randomly selected. And a random selection, over a large enough sample size, will approximate the true data.
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Modern UBR Grixis Shadow UBR UR Izzet Phoenix UR UW UW Control UW GB GB Rock GB
Commander BG Meren of Clan Nel Toth BG BGUW Atraxa, Praetor's Voice BGUW
Mental Misstep again? Argh! I agree with Sheridan in everything basically.
About UW Control, after having watched ~3.000 games of Joarthus streaming the deck vs EldraTron or Tron, this matchup is at least even for UW Control. Basically as Sheridan said, except maybe Titanshift all of the other big mana matchups are either even or 55-45.
The deck only has 2 nightmare matchups basically: Dredge and Ad Nauseam.
Agree with all of the above, and the only time E-Tron is really problematic is when they are both on the play and have double Temple or full Tron openers AND you don't have Seas or Quarter. Otherwise, solidly in the 50-50 range.
Ad Naus sucks G1 and is merely unfavorable G2 and G3 once Dispel, Negate, Disenchant, and Rejection come in. Dredge sucks period and depends on aggressive mulligans.
Overall, I wouldn't need anything on the banlist to improve UW. I'd sure try SFM and would put in 2 JTMS in a heartbeat, but they aren't necessary.
People will literally say anything about stoneforge. Last week it was a danger if making coco decks tier zero.
No way does any ten build have room for sfm. Maybe as a sb package. Please learn to understand deck construction before making statements of certainty regarding deck building.
Because decks never change to accommodate new more powerful options. This is the same things people said about LotH, about Grim Flayer, about Baral, etc....
I'm not saying that SFM couldn't come off the list, I'm saying that this argument really has no founding in Magic. Newer more powerful options will always find room in a deck at the expense of the less powerful current options that is just a fundamental truth of Mtg. You seem to be advocating a position of non-deck building where lists are set in stone instead of reevaluated consistently and potentially consisting of very different counts and potentially cards included. Is it crazy to say that SFM would make CoCo decks T0? yes, but it isn't crazy to assume a card on the power level of SFM wouldn't find its way into almost every deck with access to W.
Ok, good, I'm glad from your experience that Rejection actually changed that matchup. Thank god, if blue fair decks can at least not fold to Tron I feel better.
I wonder if midrange decks without blue are being left behind in the meta for now. It happens, and I'm not complaining, it does made me sad though; fulminators is still garbage that's obligated to run
Rejection has been fantastic in testing, countering so much of the format with 1 mana and then flashing it back with snaps feels good. Stubborn denial being so easy to activate has really shown how much a cheap counter helps blue out; yes, it's a 1 mana counter as opposed to 2, but man, it's so relevant throughout most of a game in Shadow.
GDS is not a mid-range deck, its a aggro-control deck. It isn't looking to win in the mid-range of the game its looking to aggro the opponent out while protecting its threats with discard and denial. Can it win in the mid to late game yes, but so can Burn. Jund is a mid-range deck that has the potential to have more aggro-ish hands but it is looking to deploy its game winning threats in the mid-range of the game. Has mid-range become a hippish not just a phase of the game but a state of mind?
GDS is much closer to a traditional Sligh deck that favors discard over burn than a Jund style mid-range deck.
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Twin didnt die on the backs of URx Twin decks, it died, because of the consistent performance of UR.
EDIT: And in the same post you claim 'years of experience mean nothing'.
I think we are either talking past eachother, or hitting some misunderstanding impasse because if we cannot look at where UR was historically, then why is the supposed rise of UWR kept as a data point, when we can look back JUST A FEW MONTHS at a deck that was supposedly THE GREATEST MODERN DECK SINCE ELDRAZI WINTER, and now its what, Tier 2/3?
None of us know anything, that much is true. If we throw out historical performance, we REALLY know nothing.
Spirits
When you play three Celestial Colonnade, Wall of Omens, and Restoration Angel alongside the full four Path to Exile and backups of Elspeth, Sun's Champion with another half dozen SB cards, you are not "splashing" white. You are pretty firmly committed to white.
It really wasn't. Lots of people tried playing it and many of them had mediocre-to-poor results. The deck was not a deeply kept secret, it was something that naturally trended down because it was generally worse than at least 2 or 3 other similar, better options.
UR ....... WUBR ........... WB ............. RGW ........ UBR ....... WUB .... BGU
Spells / Blink & Combo / Token Grind / Dino Tribal / Draw Cards / Zombies / Reanimate
Exactly, it changed. To the point where if you had a choice between the 2, right now there is zero point in playing Jund instead of Grixis versions.
Yet, again, there was near universal agreement and panic that DSJ was not just the best deck in the format, but it was fundamentally unstoppable.
We, as players, can make educated guesses, but not even the pro's that both didnt see DSJ coming and then claimed it was insurmountably good, are doing the exact same thing we are.
Spirits
UBR Grixis Shadow UBR
UR Izzet Phoenix UR
UW UW Control UW
GB GB Rock GB
Commander
BG Meren of Clan Nel Toth BG
BGUW Atraxa, Praetor's Voice BGUW
These pros really do drive the direction of the meta at times with these narratives. Like iDsurge mentioned, they were saying that Jund Shadow was by far the best deck for months, until its vulnerabilities were exposed and the Grixis version emerged as possibly the better build. So now they're saying the Grixis version is too strong, despite the continuous stream of results both on mtgo and in paper that show that the deck is not hurting diversity or dominating the format. But because these pros are very vocal, I wouldn't be surprised if WotC makes a ban decision despite the data just because the pro narrative has stirred up a lot of ban-mania. I really wish people like LSV and even the TCC Professor from youtube would be more responsible with their ban talk, because it's not healthy for the format.
UBR Grixis Shadow UBR
UR Izzet Phoenix UR
UW UW Control UW
GB GB Rock GB
Commander
BG Meren of Clan Nel Toth BG
BGUW Atraxa, Praetor's Voice BGUW
The better it does, the more those other decks will rise, which should keep it in check.
I just don't understand any claims for a ban in the deck. I do however, believe that some unbans like BBE would be good now.
JundBGR
RW Blood MoonRW
Pauper
Delver U
Elves G
Control B
Commander
Edgar Markov BRW
Captain Sisay GW
Niv-Mizzet, Parun UR
Tymna and Ravos WB
I woudn't ban anything and I would unban Mental Misstep and Bloodbraid Elf
Misstep is only good against a few of the top decks but would help out Ux control immensely, and elf would help revitalize the dying Jund archetype
or people are playing the deck not because it is too powerful but because it is the best option for bgx and urx against big mana...
in a different meta death shadow would not be as strong. in fact it wasn't before. its just a good meta call right now because big mana is literally 1/3 of the top 8..
a good fix to this is to give us a proactive non shadow wincon to diversify bgx and urx a bit more(sfm). and see if that helps.
decks playing:
none
You always have the most uninformed and strangest opinions in every single post I've seen the past two years
That's not a personal attack or anything, I just...really don't like any of your opinions.
Sheridan and others have gone into detail on why mental mistep is not realistic and hopefully no one goes back to explain this one.
You're seriously grasping at straws here, one tournament by Bianci and you're claiming it was on its way to skyrocketing to tier 1? This sounds incredibly biased, uninformed and with no data to back it up. The deck had close to no results, people played it for fun, playing with tap-lands was usually a serious handicap for Twin. In fact, wasn't Grixis Twin barely clinging to tier 1 at the time of the ban?
Patrick Dickman was a beast with Temur Twin, it doesn't mean it was a tier 1 deck.
The others are right, decks like Skred have won major tournaments, it doesn't mean it's a top tier deck--it's incredibly weird you're taking this stance now. Do I believe Jeskai Twin could have some potential now? Sure. But it's also possible the SFM package and AV would dilute the deck too much. The AV would probably be in the board.
I imagine there won't be any changes come August. If we are simply going off whats available to the public, modern is looking very diverse. I mean, MTGO could literally show Shadow is a beyond broken, but that isn't something we can see
Based off what seems public, the deck actually seems good for the meta.
I am a little surprised how well Eldrazi/Tron is doing, I'm also shocked 1/3rd of the top decks are big mana, that's literally an unplayable meta for GBx decks, not even sure how they're posting any results.
I agree Misstep hits a lot of cards out of Grixis Shadow
But what about the rest of the field?
Let's use these recent results as an example of "the field":
Eldrazi Tron - hits expedition map and maybe relic. (4-6 cards)
Mono white death and taxes - Aether Vial, Thraben Inspector, Path to Exile (12 cards)
Jund/Rock/Abzan - Thoughtseize, Inquisition, Path to Exile, Fatal Push (varies, but probably around 12. More if Traverse is involved)
UR Gifts Storm - Serum Visions and Sleight of hand (8 cards)
Burn - Lightning Bolt, Swiftspear, Goblin Guide, Lava Spike (16+)
Affinity - Signal Pest, Springleaf Drum (8)
Kiki Chord - Path, Birds of Paradise (8)
RG Tron - Maps, Stars + Spheres, Ancient Stirrings, maybe relics (16-18)
Dredge - Insolent Neonate + Faithless Looting (8)
Jeskai Control - Lightning Bolt, Path, Serum Visions (12)
R/W Prison - Usually none because it plays Chalice
Breach Titan - Sometimes zero in the mainboard, otherwise Fatal Push or Bolts
Amulet Titan - Visions, Stirings, Amulet, Sakura-Tribe Scout (16)
So it turns out Mental Misstep really does have plenty of targets, only falling short against Eldrazi Tron, Valakut decks, RW Prison, and affinity
The decks with the most targets are Grixis Shadow, Burn, Amulet, and the non-Eldrazi Tron.
Would this be enough for the card to see mainboard play? Most certainly.
Would it warp the meta too much or force every deck to mainboard 4 Missteps? I don't think so. Too many archetypes would be diluted by needlessly playing Misstep.
In the end there is only one way to find out, but I like that the card improves the Tron and Burn matchups for control. It could always be re-banned, and it's only an uncommon. This isn't Jace we are talking about here
We know they don't release all 5-0?
We know they cherry pick or (at best) it's random?
Is it too far to think that with Wizards hiding data from MTGO, and not releasing all the info...are they trying to shape meta perceptions?
Spirits
You know there's nothing going on in Modern ban/unban land when Misstep is on someone's radar. The card is super duper busted and disproportionately helps unfair strategies. What do all the following Modern regulatory spells have in common: Push, Path, Thoughtseize, Inquisition of Kozilek, and Bolt. Yeah, I'll pass on Misstep. I swear, people who suggest this don't seem to have experienced that card in action.
It's a doubly perplexing suggestion with DS doing so well. Can you even imagine the DS mirror when 50% of the format is playing Misstep DS decks? Dear god. I'd rather we go back to the Twin conversation than entertain Misstep conversation.
Thats why i can only assume the meta looks good on perception, they could be hiding that Shadow decks are 2/3rds of the 5-0 records on MTGO, which would point to a deck thats beyond broken
I'm only making assumptions on public available records
I wish WOTC wouldn't hide all of this
They want people to stop net decking, but screw them, people will copy the innovators and will tweak or optimize from the pioneers, thats how it works in evert type of competitive game.
Holy hell, Grixis Shadow looked like the only viable midrange deck
If UW Control can dodge the big mana matchups, it looks like a favorable deck choice.
The meta is diverse, but it looks so bad for midrange decks to handle
Poor Jund, it looks super not viable outside of an FNM
Yup more reason that Bloodbraid Elf can come back
UW does not lose to the big mana decks except maybe Titanshift, which I haven't played enough to have much of an opinion on. Amulet Titan is also dicey once Cavern is online, but that's barely Tier 3. Ceremonious Rejection has totally changed the Tron matchups though, especially with 4 Seas and your Tec Edge/Quarter split. You really can just counter everything Gx Tron does while simultaneously shutting down their lands. E-Tron is closer but feels around 45-55, with that -5% edge going to E-Tron when they get nutty Temple openers.
I normally agree with just about everything you say, but in this case I am going to have to respectfully disagree. I think you are overestimating the card.
DS mirrors with Misstep would play out more or less the same as these mirrors already do with players trading resources via Thoughtseize, Inquisition, Fatal Push, ect. The main difference is that turn 1 Thoughtseize can now be countered on the draw. Is this really that much different?
Also please tell me which unfair strategies would run Misstep? Here are the decks that would most likely not play it: Burn, Affinity, UR Storm, Counters Company, Goryo's Vengeance, Cheerios, Gx Tron, Eldrazi Tron, Dredge, Ironworks Combo, Infect, RW Prison
Remember in legacy Misstep actually pushed combo out of the format. The decks that ran it were mostly aggro-control or pure control strategies.
So please back up your argument that it would "disproportionately helps unfair strategies" when in legacy it actually did the opposite.
I always forget that UW Control beats up on Eldrazi, especially with supreme verdict
I imagine the traditional tron matchups are still bad, unless rejection is a huge boon there, too
I wonder if midrange decks without blue are being left behind in the meta for now. It happens, and I'm not complaining, it does made me sad though; fulminators is still garbage that's obligated to run
Rejection has been fantastic in testing, countering so much of the format with 1 mana and then flashing it back with snaps feels good. Stubborn denial being so easy to activate has really shown how much a cheap counter helps blue out; yes, it's a 1 mana counter as opposed to 2, but man, it's so relevant throughout most of a game in Shadow.
Right now, it would help DS decks before all else and Grixis DS would be Tier 0. After MM forced Wizards to ban at least one card from DS, then it would switch to helping unfair decks. The Legacy comparison doesn't work at all because Legacy has far more policing cards in the format that are already encouraging fair play; Wasteland, Daze, and FoW just to name the big three. MM even synergized with FoW which was yet another reason it did so much for fairer Legacy decks. None of that applies to Modern.
Eventually, I'm sure MM Modern would reach an equilibrium of fair decks and unfair decks where everyone was playing MM and there would be no reason for the majority of decks not to play the card. MM Storm and MM Infect sound particularly enjoyable, but then you'd also have MM Delver decks and some MM midrange and control. Sure, you'd get some decks that wouldn't run MM (Eldrazi wouldn't), but basically everyone else would. It would be super polarizing and completely rampant. That's exactly why it was banned in the first place in all the formats where it is illegal, and Wizards definitely won't want to risk it here.
As is always the case, the burden of proof rests with the unban camp. If you have any evidence about why you think it's fair, I'd love to see it. Until then, I'm going to defer to the extensive history of MM being problematic in basically every format it touched.
E-Tron is a tougher one. Traditional Tron is not at all; unless they nut draw you and you kept a bad hand, you really can counter everything and stop their mana development.
UBR Grixis Shadow UBR
UR Izzet Phoenix UR
UW UW Control UW
GB GB Rock GB
Commander
BG Meren of Clan Nel Toth BG
BGUW Atraxa, Praetor's Voice BGUW
Agree with all of the above, and the only time E-Tron is really problematic is when they are both on the play and have double Temple or full Tron openers AND you don't have Seas or Quarter. Otherwise, solidly in the 50-50 range.
Ad Naus sucks G1 and is merely unfavorable G2 and G3 once Dispel, Negate, Disenchant, and Rejection come in. Dredge sucks period and depends on aggressive mulligans.
Overall, I wouldn't need anything on the banlist to improve UW. I'd sure try SFM and would put in 2 JTMS in a heartbeat, but they aren't necessary.
Because decks never change to accommodate new more powerful options. This is the same things people said about LotH, about Grim Flayer, about Baral, etc....
I'm not saying that SFM couldn't come off the list, I'm saying that this argument really has no founding in Magic. Newer more powerful options will always find room in a deck at the expense of the less powerful current options that is just a fundamental truth of Mtg. You seem to be advocating a position of non-deck building where lists are set in stone instead of reevaluated consistently and potentially consisting of very different counts and potentially cards included. Is it crazy to say that SFM would make CoCo decks T0? yes, but it isn't crazy to assume a card on the power level of SFM wouldn't find its way into almost every deck with access to W.
GDS is not a mid-range deck, its a aggro-control deck. It isn't looking to win in the mid-range of the game its looking to aggro the opponent out while protecting its threats with discard and denial. Can it win in the mid to late game yes, but so can Burn. Jund is a mid-range deck that has the potential to have more aggro-ish hands but it is looking to deploy its game winning threats in the mid-range of the game. Has mid-range become a hippish not just a phase of the game but a state of mind?
GDS is much closer to a traditional Sligh deck that favors discard over burn than a Jund style mid-range deck.