Jace also does a better job guaranteeing the late game than Nahiri. But the key point isn't really how good Jace necessarily is against fast and linear decks... he's not, really, though he does seal things up if you manage to hold them off. The key point is that Jace makes you better against the other decks so you can tune the rest of your deck to better beat those fast decks.
You realize what this means, though, right? That the only fair interactive deck will be Jace.dec. Jace.dec will have more in-deck space to dedicate to fighting linear decks, making it the favorite of all the interactive decks in those matchups, and will walk all over the non-Jace fair decks with Jace.
How does it instantly make it the favorite of all interactive decks? The favorite right now against those decks is, and has been for a long time, Jund. Jace makes it so the non-Jund interactive decks can have the chances Jund does against the fast decks.
How does jace help Blue decks against fast decks exactly?
Jace also does a better job guaranteeing the late game than Nahiri. But the key point isn't really how good Jace necessarily is against fast and linear decks... he's not, really, though he does seal things up if you manage to hold them off. The key point is that Jace makes you better against the other decks so you can tune the rest of your deck to better beat those fast decks.
You realize what this means, though, right? That the only fair interactive deck will be Jace.dec. Jace.dec will have more in-deck space to dedicate to fighting linear decks, making it the favorite of all the interactive decks in those matchups, and will walk all over the non-Jace fair decks with Jace.
How does it instantly make it the favorite of all interactive decks? The favorite right now against those decks is, and has been for a long time, Jund. Jace makes it so the non-Jund interactive decks can have the chances Jund does against the fast decks.
You said it yourself. If I follow your logic correctly, and to its natural conclusion:
- The idea: Jace unban has the goal of creating a new "police deck" that can load up on interaction to defeat linear strategies because it doesn't need to dedicate too many slots to its own win condition (i.e. 4 Delver, 3 Tasigur, 2 Young Pyro); it can just play 4 Jace instead
Wait, Delver? Young Pyromancer? Those decks wouldn't run Jace. The point is Jace could go into the slower control decks. People don't drop Delver of Secrets in order to run Jace because Jace goes in a totally different kind of deck.
- My read: Assuming this works, Jace.dec joins Jund as a deck that can hold its own against linear strategies because it has so much interaction
- Jace.dec is even better than Jund vs. linear strategies because it is able to run more interaction
How does it make it better than Jund vs. linear strategies? Because it's better than it used to be? How does "it's better than it used to be" instantly mean "it's better than this other deck"? I don't know if it'd even make it as good as Jund; but it'd be better than it is now, which is the point.
- Jace.dec naturally wrecks Jund/other interactive strategies because it has 4x Jace and 4x Snap in it
Actually, in my experience, Jund-like decks tend to be pretty good against Jace decks. Cards like Dark Confidant and Liliana are highly effective.
Admittedly, Jund lacks Bloodbraid Elf, but if Jund falls off as a result then that could be unbanned anyway.
- Jace.dec becomes the only playable interactive deck
Even if this does become the case... right now that statement kind of describes Jund, so it wouldn't make the problem any worse even in this supposed worst case scenario.
Jace also does a better job guaranteeing the late game than Nahiri. But the key point isn't really how good Jace necessarily is against fast and linear decks... he's not, really, though he does seal things up if you manage to hold them off. The key point is that Jace makes you better against the other decks so you can tune the rest of your deck to better beat those fast decks.
You realize what this means, though, right? That the only fair interactive deck will be Jace.dec. Jace.dec will have more in-deck space to dedicate to fighting linear decks, making it the favorite of all the interactive decks in those matchups, and will walk all over the non-Jace fair decks with Jace.
How does it instantly make it the favorite of all interactive decks? The favorite right now against those decks is, and has been for a long time, Jund. Jace makes it so the non-Jund interactive decks can have the chances Jund does against the fast decks.
How does jace help Blue decks against fast decks exactly?
Well, if you had read my original post--which is included in the quote--perhaps you would get you wouldn't need to ask that question.
How is that different from nahiri? I dont think ive ever looked at a jeskai list that wasnt 23ish lands, 4 snap, 5 wincons, 28 pieces of interaction. Same goes for burkharts grixis list, i really dont see any merit to this claim
Jace also does a better job guaranteeing the late game than Nahiri. But the key point isn't really how good Jace necessarily is against fast and linear decks... he's not, really, though he does seal things up if you manage to hold them off. The key point is that Jace makes you better against the other decks so you can tune the rest of your deck to better beat those fast decks.
You realize what this means, though, right? That the only fair interactive deck will be Jace.dec. Jace.dec will have more in-deck space to dedicate to fighting linear decks, making it the favorite of all the interactive decks in those matchups, and will walk all over the non-Jace fair decks with Jace.
How does it instantly make it the favorite of all interactive decks? The favorite right now against those decks is, and has been for a long time, Jund. Jace makes it so the non-Jund interactive decks can have the chances Jund does against the fast decks.
You said it yourself. If I follow your logic correctly, and to its natural conclusion:
- The idea: Jace unban has the goal of creating a new "police deck" that can load up on interaction to defeat linear strategies because it doesn't need to dedicate too many slots to its own win condition (i.e. 4 Delver, 3 Tasigur, 2 Young Pyro); it can just play 4 Jace instead
Wait, Delver? Young Pyromancer? Those decks wouldn't run Jace. The point is Jace could go into the slower control decks. People don't drop Delver of Secrets in order to run Jace because Jace goes in a totally different kind of deck.
What I'm saying is that interactive blue decks need to run a bunch of cards to actually win the game with in addition to interaction. One such example is Grixis Delver. Add Jace to the picture and the Bolt/Snapcaster decks can cut the chaff.
- My read: Assuming this works, Jace.dec joins Jund as a deck that can hold its own against linear strategies because it has so much interaction
- Jace.dec is even better than Jund vs. linear strategies because it is able to run more interaction
How does it make it better than Jund vs. linear strategies? Because it's better than it used to be? How does "it's better than it used to be" instantly mean "it's better than this other deck"? I don't know if it'd even make it as good as Jund; but it'd be better than it is now, which is the point.
Because it can play more interaction instead of diluting with a multi-card win condition.
- Jace.dec naturally wrecks Jund/other interactive strategies because it has 4x Jace and 4x Snap in it
Actually, in my experience, Jund-like decks tend to be pretty good against Jace decks. Cards like Dark Confidant and Liliana are highly effective.
Admittedly, Jund lacks Bloodbraid Elf, but if Jund falls off as a result then that could be unbanned anyway.
Your experience is radically different from mine. I have never seen Bob, Goyf, and Lili decks line up very well against Path/Bolt/Snap/Jace decks (in my limited NBL testing).
- Jace.dec becomes the only playable interactive deck
Even if this does become the case... right now that statement kind of describes Jund, so it wouldn't make the problem any worse even in this supposed worst case scenario.
I agree to an extent, but if we can argue that Jace.dec would take over Jund's meta shares, it's also safe to assume that Jace.dec's stranglehold over interactive options in Modern would far outweigh Jund's current stranglehold over interaction options in Modern. Realistically though I wish Wizards would do something to make non-Jund interactive decks better than they are. I just don't think unbanning Twin or Jace are good answers to this problem, since I think they'll exacerbate it in the opposite direction.
the card itself really isn't worth the card board its printed on...does it serve a purpose? Sure its a blue 1 drop that might not be a 1/1. I would not put it in a list and expect to win a PTQ or GP though.
People keep complaining about "turn 3" aggro decks in here, and i find this entire complaint unwarranted. First of all, if they were indeed "turn 3" decks, they would be banned. My own personal research showed infect, in my opinion the fastest of the pump spell aggro decks, to indeed not be a turn 4 violator. So, unless someone has data that i dont, could we stop the hyperbole please?
Next, both goldfish and mtgtop8 show the pump spell aggro decks to be around 12-15% of the format. Incidentally, both of these sites show BGx to be 12% and URx to be 7%. So yes, these styles of decks are SLIGHTLY overrepresented compared to fair strategies, but nothing close to what you would come to believe reading this thread. How the hell is this a "turn 3" format when the decks capable of doing that are literally 12% of the decks you expect to see, and will only win on t3 12% of the time??
The speed of a format isn't determined by the average kill turn, but by the kill turn of the fastest decks in the format. Right now, we have several decks capable of turn 2 or 3 kills. Speaking for Suicide Bloo, that deck can goldfish a turn 3 kill probably about 30% of the time. I think h0lydiva said her actual turn 3 kill data was somewhere in the teens. Death Shadow and Infect are both a little faster than Bloo, so they'll both be at least in the mid to upper teens on actual turn 3 kills. Dredge can produce virtual turn 2 or 3 kills, where they set up an unbeatable board presence in the first couple turns with good dredges. They might not actually finish you off until turn 4 or 5, but some games are effectively over on turns 2 or 3.
Again, you say that your data showed Infect to not be a turn 4 violator, but the truth is that we don't know where WotC draws the line. Infect, along with these other decks, absolutely does kill before turn 4 a nontrivial amount of the time. It definitely does violate the turn 4 rule, but maybe just not often enough to get it banned.
Another factor at play is that we have multiple decks doing this, as I mentioned earlier. Maybe Infect alone doesn't kill before turn 4 often enough, but maybe all the decks that are killing before turn 4 added together produce numbers that WotC will want to act on. Remember this snippet from the Jan. 2016 banning announcement:
When a format becomes imbalanced, or too many games are not interactive, we examine the cause.
Maybe there's not one deck with 25% turn 3 kills, but maybe they see 4 decks with 15% turn 3 kills and decide to make a move to rectify this situation.
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Modern UBR Grixis Shadow UBR UR Izzet Phoenix UR UW UW Control UW GB GB Rock GB
Commander BG Meren of Clan Nel Toth BG BGUW Atraxa, Praetor's Voice BGUW
Oh god no that's a gross idea. Don't ban probe. It's one of the most interesting cards in the format and spell based combo has already taken enough of a beating. Wizards needs to stop printing hyper-efficient creatures in absence of low-mana efficient answers. It's that simple.
Stop printing such busted creatures?
Start print more efficient answers?
You don't even have to do both at the same time, just one or the other. The problem is multi-axis. And too often I see people on here acting like isn't(I've lurked a long time, modern has gotten so bad I just could no longer hold my tongue). But if they do choose one or the other they need to do it FAST.
Also... Interestingly enough. The answer to the current super speed aggro fest we currently find ourselves in lies in a card named Doomed Traveler.
I built the silly Abzan Aristocrats deck recently knowing it was bad but also knowing it was fun. And I was pleasently suprised at it's ability to take advantage of the current meta game. Plop a turn one Doomed Traveler and it's amazing at how well it can make an infect player cry. If they don't have a Blighted Agent they have to waste two pump spells keeping their infect creatures alive and that's assuming you haven't drawn one of your four paths. And even if they have a Noble to exalt into a blocker the blocker just comes back from the graveyard multiple times of through Abzan Ascendency. The matchup is an unexpected thing of beauty.
And much of what goes for that also goes for the other pump based aggro decks. Your Blood Artists can even hep put you out of range!
Unfortunatly the deck just eats it too hard to eldrazi, combo, tron, and valakut to ever be teir 1. But it also has an amazing Jund/Abzan matchup. Abzan Ascendency, Lingering Souls, and a ton of other cards do work against midrange like you wouldn't believe.
People keep complaining about "turn 3" aggro decks in here, and i find this entire complaint unwarranted. First of all, if they were indeed "turn 3" decks, they would be banned. My own personal research showed infect, in my opinion the fastest of the pump spell aggro decks, to indeed not be a turn 4 violator. So, unless someone has data that i dont, could we stop the hyperbole please?
Next, both goldfish and mtgtop8 show the pump spell aggro decks to be around 12-15% of the format. Incidentally, both of these sites show BGx to be 12% and URx to be 7%. So yes, these styles of decks are SLIGHTLY overrepresented compared to fair strategies, but nothing close to what you would come to believe reading this thread. How the hell is this a "turn 3" format when the decks capable of doing that are literally 12% of the decks you expect to see, and will only win on t3 12% of the time??
The speed of a format isn't determined by the average kill turn, but by the kill turn of the fastest decks in the format. Right now, we have several decks capable of turn 2 or 3 kills. Speaking for Suicide Bloo, that deck can goldfish a turn 3 kill probably about 30% of the time. I think h0lydiva said her actual turn 3 kill data was somewhere in the teens. Death Shadow and Infect are both a little faster than Bloo, so they'll both be at least in the mid to upper teens on actual turn 3 kills. Dredge can produce virtual turn 2 or 3 kills, where they set up an unbeatable board presence in the first couple turns with good dredges. They might not actually finish you off until turn 4 or 5, but some games are effectively over on turns 2 or 3.
Again, you say that your data showed Infect to not be a turn 4 violator, but the truth is that we don't know where WotC draws the line. Infect, along with these other decks, absolutely does kill before turn 4 a nontrivial amount of the time. It definitely does violate the turn 4 rule, but maybe just not often enough to get it banned.
Another factor at play is that we have multiple decks doing this, as I mentioned earlier. Maybe Infect alone doesn't kill before turn 4 often enough, but maybe all the decks that are killing before turn 4 added together produce numbers that WotC will want to act on. Remember this snippet from the Jan. 2016 banning announcement:
When a format becomes imbalanced, or too many games are not interactive, we examine the cause.
Maybe there's not one deck with 25% turn 3 kills, but maybe they see 4 decks with 15% turn 3 kills and decide to make a move to rectify this situation.
Theres is no such thing as being a t4 violator that doesn't violate it often enough. Part of the t4 rule is that it needs to do it often enough in actual games. This has been stated by wizards literally every time they have banned under this rule. Saying we don't know where they draw the line is technically correct, but horribly misleading. We know that previous decks have been banned for winning pre t4 no less than 23% of the time, so it is pretty safe to guess that the line is drawn somewhere between 20-25%. Hence why sheldon was able to accurately predict the summer bloom banning before the announcement, and why we havent seen an affinity ban throughout moderns history. Yes, affinity can kill t3, but it happens infrequently enough that the deck is not considered a violator. Not a "partial violator", just straight out not a violator.
In addition, the speed of the format is ABSOLUTELY NOT defined by the fastest possible kill. If all it is based on is the fastest possible kill, modern is a t1 format and legacy is a t0 format. In fact, the very reason legacy is called a t3 format and modern a t4 format is because of wizards predefined rules for what is acceptable in those respective formats, it has nothing to do with any decks present in them. Modern is a turn 4 format because top tier decks that win before turn 4 around 25% of the time receive bans. Wizards has NEVER shown to be relaxed on this criteria, they ban t4 violators with no remorse. People claiming that modern is anything other than a t4 format are being hyperbolic to form a narrative that fits their agenda, nothing more nothing less
People keep complaining about "turn 3" aggro decks in here, and i find this entire complaint unwarranted. First of all, if they were indeed "turn 3" decks, they would be banned. My own personal research showed infect, in my opinion the fastest of the pump spell aggro decks, to indeed not be a turn 4 violator. So, unless someone has data that i dont, could we stop the hyperbole please?
Next, both goldfish and mtgtop8 show the pump spell aggro decks to be around 12-15% of the format. Incidentally, both of these sites show BGx to be 12% and URx to be 7%. So yes, these styles of decks are SLIGHTLY overrepresented compared to fair strategies, but nothing close to what you would come to believe reading this thread. How the hell is this a "turn 3" format when the decks capable of doing that are literally 12% of the decks you expect to see, and will only win on t3 12% of the time??
The speed of a format isn't determined by the average kill turn, but by the kill turn of the fastest decks in the format. Right now, we have several decks capable of turn 2 or 3 kills. Speaking for Suicide Bloo, that deck can goldfish a turn 3 kill probably about 30% of the time. I think h0lydiva said her actual turn 3 kill data was somewhere in the teens. Death Shadow and Infect are both a little faster than Bloo, so they'll both be at least in the mid to upper teens on actual turn 3 kills. Dredge can produce virtual turn 2 or 3 kills, where they set up an unbeatable board presence in the first couple turns with good dredges. They might not actually finish you off until turn 4 or 5, but some games are effectively over on turns 2 or 3.
Again, you say that your data showed Infect to not be a turn 4 violator, but the truth is that we don't know where WotC draws the line. Infect, along with these other decks, absolutely does kill before turn 4 a nontrivial amount of the time. It definitely does violate the turn 4 rule, but maybe just not often enough to get it banned.
Another factor at play is that we have multiple decks doing this, as I mentioned earlier. Maybe Infect alone doesn't kill before turn 4 often enough, but maybe all the decks that are killing before turn 4 added together produce numbers that WotC will want to act on. Remember this snippet from the Jan. 2016 banning announcement:
When a format becomes imbalanced, or too many games are not interactive, we examine the cause.
Maybe there's not one deck with 25% turn 3 kills, but maybe they see 4 decks with 15% turn 3 kills and decide to make a move to rectify this situation.
Theres is no such thing as being a t4 violator that doesn't violate it often enough. Part of the t4 rule is that it needs to do it often enough in actual games. This has been stated by wizards literally every time they have banned under this rule. Saying we don't know where they draw the line is technically correct, but horribly misleading. We know that previous decks have been banned for winning pre t4 no less than 23% of the time, so it is pretty safe to guess that the line is drawn somewhere between 20-25%. Hence why sheldon was able to accurately predict the summer bloom banning before the announcement, and why we havent seen an affinity ban throughout moderns history. Yes, affinity can kill t3, but it happens infrequently enough that the deck is not considered a violator. Not a "partial violator", just straight out not a violator.
In addition, the speed of the format is ABSOLUTELY NOT defined by the fastest possible kill. If all it is based on is the fastest possible kill, modern is a t1 format and legacy is a t0 format. In fact, the very reason legacy is called a t3 format and modern a t4 format is because of wizards predefined rules for what is acceptable in those respective formats, it has nothing to do with any decks present in them. Modern is a turn 4 format because top tier decks that win before turn 4 around 25% of the time receive bans. Wizards has NEVER shown to be relaxed on this criteria, they ban t4 violators with no remorse. People claiming that modern is anything other than a t4 format are being hyperbolic to form a narrative that fits their agenda, nothing more nothing less
the card itself really isn't worth the card board its printed on...does it serve a purpose? Sure its a blue 1 drop that might not be a 1/1. I would not put it in a list and expect to win a PTQ or GP though.
I havent posted my thoughts on bans in a while but here i go.
If anything in Infect or other pump spell decks has to go its going to be one of the following.
Gitaxian Probe
I like the card but it kinda does everything you want from a cantrip in the decks that run it. It draws, triggers prowess, feeds Delve, gives valuable information and the life loss isnt even a drawback in some of these decks. Feels the most likely to me if anything from the deck gets the ax but i dont think Infect is on the chopping block this time.
Mutagenic Growth
This card screams unfair. If a deck is trying to kill you as quickly as it can then it is running a set. Some similarities with Probe in these decks. Just adds too much consistency and speed.
Become Immense
Only reason i even mention this card is they have already banned 2 other power Delve spells from that block. If they want to cripple Deaths Shadow and knock Infect down a peg (And really, it probably gets swapped with Groundswell). Doesnt take Probe away from the sometimes fair-ish blue decks running them. If they really want to hit the pump decks but without banning Probe or Growth (the consistency) then it makes sense they take away the payoff (the power).
That said, i love Infect as a deck and i have never had a problem with the deck. BUT i have been playing decks with either 4 Path, 4 Decay MD or 4 Bolt, 3 Terminate, 2 Decay, ect. forever. It feels like it makes fair decks good. Removal, counters, discard, there are a ton of ways to beat Infect if that is your goal. I dont think this is where the main problem in Modern is though is definitely contributing to the insane speed of the meta.
My gut tells me they will ban the deck that promotes linearity. The 2 decks that jump out at me the most are Dredge and Bant Eldrazi. They arent unbeatable but they are harder to beat with any sort of fair strategy. Infect, Burn, Affinity, they all get shut down easily with SB cards or a deck built with interaction. Dredge and Bant Drazi dont, they encourage going over or under them and in this case, speeding the format up with the pump decks, the uptick in Burn, and Lantern. In the case of going over, GW Tron. Dredge can fight through hate real well, Conflag adds a new level of power to the deck, and aside from Anger of the Gods, Relic, or Leyline of the Void, there isnt a great way to hate it. Their SB is dedicated to beating hate. Conflag just lets it win if it gets to dredge some Loams. Aside from hate, you can race Dredge with Burn or Infect. Eldrazi Temple was the land i thought would be banned during Eldrazi Winter. Combined with mana dorks and hyper efficient, above the curve plays, fair decks will not do their job.
The last time Chalice of the Void or Relic of Progenitus were considered viable MD options in the format was during TC Delver and PT Oath of the Gatewatch, it was because the format was in a serious hole. When most of the spells in the format that are being played are all 0, 1, and 2 mana, Chalice becomes real appealing.
I also doubt Wizards does nothing this go around. Its silly to see some cards on the ban list when we have Dredge putting half of its deck into the grave on turn 2, Eldrazi chaining Seers and Smasher's starting turn 2 and 3 respectively, and Infect (which is an unfair deck) is being considered the police deck of the format. Thats scary. Imagine if Amulet was considered a police deck, sure, every deck has to run some number of Blood Moon or go faster now. You have Rock, Paper, Scissors, and when Rock becomes an obsolete option, it kinda ruins the game doesnt it?
The format screams degeneracy. Taking a historical perspective on this format i cant see something not giving. If the format stays the same, or relatively, then viewers of GPs and Opens will get bored or upset after they see the same 4-12 decks (and most lists share some number of staples in Probe, Become Immense ect.) in the same matchups over and over. If the only changes to come to Modern come through Standard printings then, based on looking at the last 2 years worth of sets, i dont think we are in for a good time. I dont mind it, i will keep playing no matter what happens, i have had 4 decks banned from under me but i still have a half dozen sitting beside me, i will always find a deck to enjoy playing. I think this time around they will address Bant Eldrazi or Dredge through a banning. It might make viewers happy to see more interactive decks being promoted with their primary predator gone. I doubt they would do an unbanning right now considering how crazy the format is and banning something alone is likely enough to cause a stir for months. Infect is probably safe for now but its the deck to beat and historically that has been a scary thought.
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Active Modern Decks
U Tron GW Bogles RG Loam UR Blue Breach RBU Grixis Goryo BRU Grixis Delver GBR Jund GBW Junk
If Jace, was actually the complete bad guy in Modern, would it really be a horrible thing? I'd rather have people complaining about Jace the way everyone is currently complaining about Golgari Grave-Troll.
I havent posted my thoughts on bans in a while but here i go.
If anything in Infect or other pump spell decks has to go its going to be one of the following.
Gitaxian Probe
I like the card but it kinda does everything you want from a cantrip in the decks that run it. It draws, triggers prowess, feeds Delve, gives valuable information and the life loss isnt even a drawback in some of these decks. Feels the most likely to me if anything from the deck gets the ax but i dont think Infect is on the chopping block this time.
Mutagenic Growth
This card screams unfair. If a deck is trying to kill you as quickly as it can then it is running a set. Some similarities with Probe in these decks. Just adds too much consistency and speed.
Become Immense
Only reason i even mention this card is they have already banned 2 other power Delve spells from that block. If they want to cripple Deaths Shadow and knock Infect down a peg (And really, it probably gets swapped with Groundswell). Doesnt take Probe away from the sometimes fair-ish blue decks running them. If they really want to hit the pump decks but without banning Probe or Growth (the consistency) then it makes sense they take away the payoff (the power).
That said, i love Infect as a deck and i have never had a problem with the deck. BUT i have been playing decks with either 4 Path, 4 Decay MD or 4 Bolt, 3 Terminate, 2 Decay, ect. forever. It feels like it makes fair decks good. Removal, counters, discard, there are a ton of ways to beat Infect if that is your goal. I dont think this is where the main problem in Modern is though is definitely contributing to the insane speed of the meta.
My gut tells me they will ban the deck that promotes linearity. The 2 decks that jump out at me the most are Dredge and Bant Eldrazi. They arent unbeatable but they are harder to beat with any sort of fair strategy. Infect, Burn, Affinity, they all get shut down easily with SB cards or a deck built with interaction. Dredge and Bant Drazi dont, they encourage going over or under them and in this case, speeding the format up with the pump decks, the uptick in Burn, and Lantern. In the case of going over, GW Tron. Dredge can fight through hate real well, Conflag adds a new level of power to the deck, and aside from Anger of the Gods, Relic, or Leyline of the Void, there isnt a great way to hate it. Their SB is dedicated to beating hate. Conflag just lets it win if it gets to dredge some Loams. Aside from hate, you can race Dredge with Burn or Infect. Eldrazi Temple was the land i thought would be banned during Eldrazi Winter. Combined with mana dorks and hyper efficient, above the curve plays, fair decks will not do their job.
The last time Chalice of the Void or Relic of Progenitus were considered viable MD options in the format was during TC Delver and PT Oath of the Gatewatch, it was because the format was in a serious hole. When most of the spells in the format that are being played are all 0, 1, and 2 mana, Chalice becomes real appealing.
I also doubt Wizards does nothing this go around. Its silly to see some cards on the ban list when we have Dredge putting half of its deck into the grave on turn 2, Eldrazi chaining Seers and Smasher's starting turn 2 and 3 respectively, and Infect (which is an unfair deck) is being considered the police deck of the format. Thats scary. Imagine if Amulet was considered a police deck, sure, every deck has to run some number of Blood Moon or go faster now. You have Rock, Paper, Scissors, and when Rock becomes an obsolete option, it kinda ruins the game doesnt it?
The format screams degeneracy. Taking a historical perspective on this format i cant see something not giving. If the format stays the same, or relatively, then viewers of GPs and Opens will get bored or upset after they see the same 4-12 decks (and most lists share some number of staples in Probe, Become Immense ect.) in the same matchups over and over. If the only changes to come to Modern come through Standard printings then, based on looking at the last 2 years worth of sets, i dont think we are in for a good time. I dont mind it, i will keep playing no matter what happens, i have had 4 decks banned from under me but i still have a half dozen sitting beside me, i will always find a deck to enjoy playing. I think this time around they will address Bant Eldrazi or Dredge through a banning. It might make viewers happy to see more interactive decks being promoted with their primary predator gone. I doubt they would do an unbanning right now considering how crazy the format is and banning something alone is likely enough to cause a stir for months. Infect is probably safe for now but its the deck to beat and historically that has been a scary thought.
Why in the world would the address Eldrazi in it's current form? It's completely fair right now.
I do find it very annoying that Gx Tron and Bant Eldrazi get Strictly Better Impulse while blue has to stick to Serum Visions.
It is as unfair as it gets. As a previous user said, Ancient Stirrings does not justifies a ban necessarily , but it's something that might be considered when thinking about possible actions to slow down the meta. We are at a certain point that Ponder and PreordainSHOULD both be unbanned, if Ancient Stirrings is acceptable. I am certain that the better green Impulse can stick after that, but as it stands it's totally embarrassing.
For better or worse, this isn't how the banlist works. If it were, then Eldrazi Temple would have been banned along with Eye because it's the only card in the entire format that does what it does ( where [1 card = 1 untapped land drop = 2 mana]). Instead of banning things "on principal," like what you're suggesting or what I'd love with E. Temple, WOTC bans pieces of entire decks that they feel break one or more of the stated "rules" of the format. They choose a card that either blatantly exacerbates the identified problem or that would neuter the deck while having the least amount of "splash damage" to other decks. Ancient Stirrings is in decks that don't violate any of the format's rules, and as I mentioned WOTC doesn't ban "on principal." I heavily doubt that they unban "on principal" either.
While I agree that they previously banned based on those principles or guidelines, since they removed the modern PT and restated there goals for modern I'm not sure what to expect anymore as the sample size is to small. I do understand though this is how hey use to do things...
Ill repeat again, Git Probe and Muta Growth are not offenders, and if WOTC banned these cards....well...Id say Modern would be in major trouble.
You are right, probe and growth fill the yard at the cost of 2 life....great. They feed delve....great. They feed delirium...great. They pump or give card draw.....great. What is wrong with these effects, exactly? Nothing! The fact that Becomme Immense abuses Moderns quickly filling graveyards, does not mean you ban the cards that fill those graveyards. I could make a kosher and obvious Holocaust reference here, but Im sure you are all smart enough to understand what Im trying to say.
Become Immense, IF ANYTHING, would be the ban target. Thats it. Lets not waste time talking about banning cards that will never be banned, or if were banned, would spell a dark, dark time for Modern.
Imo control doesn't need Counterspell. It needs a consistent draw engine that doesn't increase the speed of blue combo decks. This is incredibly difficult to do. Jace, the Mind Sculptor could be unbanned for a season, to see what happens. It may be slow enough for combo decks not to want it.
Sam Stoddart: Part of the reason that Ponder and Preordain are banned and Sleight of Hand and Serum Visions aren't, is that the latter two are just weaker and don't do as good of a job of letting people set up their draws quickly. The problem with putting too much card filtering in a format is that it drives too many of the games to play out exactly the same. There is some novelty in this, but I think it is less fun for a format that we want to be highly re-playable.
Ancient Stirrings breaks that semi-rule of them though. I guess RDSRedemption's opinion that WOTC could remove something from Bant Eldrazi, like Eldrazi Temple or Ancient Stirrings are based on this(and that Bant Eldrazi deck does not promote interaction as he said, and I am inclined to agree). This is not 100% clear though.
"Part of the reason..."
"weaker"
"as good of a job"
"too much card filtering"
"too many of the games"
"want to be highly re-playable"
These are not absolute statements. They're comparative. And they leave plenty of gray area. In my opinion, Ancient Stirrings actually doesn't come close to breaking Sam Stoddard's quote. Ancient Stirrings is a build-around card that requires a high density of lands, colorless cards, or both. It's currently used in only 2 archetypes that see a fair amount of play - Eldrazi and Tron. Those decks are a total of 9% of the metagame. That hardly breaks the "highly re-playable" or "too many of the games [...] play out the same way" rules that you've quoted. When only 1 out of 10 of your matches even includes the card, and it's only 4-of instead of what blue could do with 4 Preordain + 4 SV + 4 Sleight, the risk of things playing out the same way is tremendously reduced.
There's also a much higher bar for the blue cantrips to cross over in order to be safe as compared to a card like Ancient Stirrings. As mentioned, Stirrings requires you to build around it and will only ever fit into a couple of very specific decks. Ponder, Preordain, SV, Sleight, etc., require only blue mana and CAN fit (whether rightly or wrongly) in any and all decks running blue sources.
I still think that Preordain is a great unban choice, but in no way do I think Ponder is safe. I also see no reason at all to either ban Ancient Stirrings or even compare it to the cards currently on the ban list.
I don't ever play against Lantern so I forgot it was in that one too. I think my point still stands, though. A card that you can only have 4-of in a deck and which is in 14% of the meta, but in vastly different decks, does not create a situation where games are playing out the same way too often.
I don't ever play against Lantern so I forgot it was in that one too. I think my point still stands, though. A card that you can only have 4-of in a deck and which is in 14% of the meta, but in vastly different decks, does not create a situation where games are playing out the same way too often.
Ok, I respect your opinion. I hope we are agreed on the main issue that is a 1)Dredge nerf and 2.an unban, at least Preordain, maybe Splinter Twin(I know you do not agree on this-stick with the Preordain suggestion).
Merry X-Mas to all of you!
haha yeah I definitely don't agree on the Twin unban. To me that's a move that requires a concession that they just don't care about the format any more and would require unbanning MANY cards and just letting Modern take over the space Legacy currently inhabits. Which I'd be fine with, except that it would mean Modern would die a slow and painful death.
I also don't agree with a Dredge ban. I have no love for that deck but I don't see it breaking any rules. And as someone who plays a lot of decks but Jund is my primary one, I definitely feel the Dredge --- Jund --- Eldrazi squeeze.
But yes, I definitely DO agree with unbanning Preordain. Tempo, Blue-Control, and Spell-based Combo all need help right now and it would, to various degrees, benefit all of them.
Regarding the phyrexian mana spells, the information Probe gives you in Infect, Zoo, and Thing decks is my reasoning for it being a target. 2 life and a card to draw isnt broken. But it lets the linear deck know if the coast is clear or not and helps them to play around interaction. I have seen Zoo drop 2 turn 1 and another on the following turn, providing very good and relevant information, while also being half of Become Immense's cost.
Growth only goes into the hyper aggressive decks and it probably shouldnt be banned, but if they want to slow the pump decks across the board then it isnt a bad option. Everytime i play Probe, the information tends to be the most valuable aspect of the card. I only bring up the Phyrexian mana spells because they are a very strong and consistent way to play multiple spells in the early turns of a game for little to NO downside. I dont think that they are the MOST deserving of a ban from the pump decks, however if Wizards wants to avoid banning Become Immense, these are the next 2 targets.
If you read my post you would see that i dont think any of those (Phyrexian mana) cards should get removed right now, rather after the format has been slowed down (through other potential bannings first). But my arguement is that if the Dredge or Drazi decks take a hit, then the format will shift towards midrange decks which will keep these pump spell decks under control. Then these Phyrexian spells wont need to be considered to slow it down.
I do think Eldrazi and Dredge are creating a hostile metagame. Locally, i dont have too many of either to deal with, however in larger events they warp the format. You have to play something to go over or under. You just cant try to play fair in any way against them, aside from maybe Blood Moon or Anger of the Gods against Dredge unless it gets Thoughtseized.
This all depends on what Wizards wants to do, ban the decks that potentially kill before turn 4 or ban the decks that prevent interactive decks from policing the hyper aggressive decks running a million pump spells. The second sounds like a better choice to me since i know the aggro decks can be beaten by a fair deck and a kill spell. But what beats Dredge and Eldrazi? Unfair, early, aggressive pump spell decks.
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How does jace help Blue decks against fast decks exactly?
UWRjeskai nahiri UWR
UBRgrixis titi UBR
UBRgrixis delverUBR
UR ur kikimite UR
EDH
RUG Riku of Two Reflections RUG
UBR Marchesa, the Black Rose UBR
UBRGYidris, Maelstrom Wielder UBRG
UBRJeleva, Nephalia's ScourgeUBR
RUG Temur Deprive Delver
BUG Sultai Deprive Delver
Wait, Delver? Young Pyromancer? Those decks wouldn't run Jace. The point is Jace could go into the slower control decks. People don't drop Delver of Secrets in order to run Jace because Jace goes in a totally different kind of deck.
How does it make it better than Jund vs. linear strategies? Because it's better than it used to be? How does "it's better than it used to be" instantly mean "it's better than this other deck"? I don't know if it'd even make it as good as Jund; but it'd be better than it is now, which is the point.
Actually, in my experience, Jund-like decks tend to be pretty good against Jace decks. Cards like Dark Confidant and Liliana are highly effective.
Admittedly, Jund lacks Bloodbraid Elf, but if Jund falls off as a result then that could be unbanned anyway.
Even if this does become the case... right now that statement kind of describes Jund, so it wouldn't make the problem any worse even in this supposed worst case scenario.
Well, if you had read my original post--which is included in the quote--perhaps you would get you wouldn't need to ask that question.
UWRjeskai nahiri UWR
UBRgrixis titi UBR
UBRgrixis delverUBR
UR ur kikimite UR
EDH
RUG Riku of Two Reflections RUG
UBR Marchesa, the Black Rose UBR
UBRGYidris, Maelstrom Wielder UBRG
UBRJeleva, Nephalia's ScourgeUBR
Counter-Cat
Colorless Eldrazi Stompy
The speed of a format isn't determined by the average kill turn, but by the kill turn of the fastest decks in the format. Right now, we have several decks capable of turn 2 or 3 kills. Speaking for Suicide Bloo, that deck can goldfish a turn 3 kill probably about 30% of the time. I think h0lydiva said her actual turn 3 kill data was somewhere in the teens. Death Shadow and Infect are both a little faster than Bloo, so they'll both be at least in the mid to upper teens on actual turn 3 kills. Dredge can produce virtual turn 2 or 3 kills, where they set up an unbeatable board presence in the first couple turns with good dredges. They might not actually finish you off until turn 4 or 5, but some games are effectively over on turns 2 or 3.
Again, you say that your data showed Infect to not be a turn 4 violator, but the truth is that we don't know where WotC draws the line. Infect, along with these other decks, absolutely does kill before turn 4 a nontrivial amount of the time. It definitely does violate the turn 4 rule, but maybe just not often enough to get it banned.
Another factor at play is that we have multiple decks doing this, as I mentioned earlier. Maybe Infect alone doesn't kill before turn 4 often enough, but maybe all the decks that are killing before turn 4 added together produce numbers that WotC will want to act on. Remember this snippet from the Jan. 2016 banning announcement:
Maybe there's not one deck with 25% turn 3 kills, but maybe they see 4 decks with 15% turn 3 kills and decide to make a move to rectify this situation.
UBR Grixis Shadow UBR
UR Izzet Phoenix UR
UW UW Control UW
GB GB Rock GB
Commander
BG Meren of Clan Nel Toth BG
BGUW Atraxa, Praetor's Voice BGUW
Stop printing such busted creatures?
Start print more efficient answers?
You don't even have to do both at the same time, just one or the other. The problem is multi-axis. And too often I see people on here acting like isn't(I've lurked a long time, modern has gotten so bad I just could no longer hold my tongue). But if they do choose one or the other they need to do it FAST.
I built the silly Abzan Aristocrats deck recently knowing it was bad but also knowing it was fun. And I was pleasently suprised at it's ability to take advantage of the current meta game. Plop a turn one Doomed Traveler and it's amazing at how well it can make an infect player cry. If they don't have a Blighted Agent they have to waste two pump spells keeping their infect creatures alive and that's assuming you haven't drawn one of your four paths. And even if they have a Noble to exalt into a blocker the blocker just comes back from the graveyard multiple times of through Abzan Ascendency. The matchup is an unexpected thing of beauty.
And much of what goes for that also goes for the other pump based aggro decks. Your Blood Artists can even hep put you out of range!
Unfortunatly the deck just eats it too hard to eldrazi, combo, tron, and valakut to ever be teir 1. But it also has an amazing Jund/Abzan matchup. Abzan Ascendency, Lingering Souls, and a ton of other cards do work against midrange like you wouldn't believe.
Theres is no such thing as being a t4 violator that doesn't violate it often enough. Part of the t4 rule is that it needs to do it often enough in actual games. This has been stated by wizards literally every time they have banned under this rule. Saying we don't know where they draw the line is technically correct, but horribly misleading. We know that previous decks have been banned for winning pre t4 no less than 23% of the time, so it is pretty safe to guess that the line is drawn somewhere between 20-25%. Hence why sheldon was able to accurately predict the summer bloom banning before the announcement, and why we havent seen an affinity ban throughout moderns history. Yes, affinity can kill t3, but it happens infrequently enough that the deck is not considered a violator. Not a "partial violator", just straight out not a violator.
In addition, the speed of the format is ABSOLUTELY NOT defined by the fastest possible kill. If all it is based on is the fastest possible kill, modern is a t1 format and legacy is a t0 format. In fact, the very reason legacy is called a t3 format and modern a t4 format is because of wizards predefined rules for what is acceptable in those respective formats, it has nothing to do with any decks present in them. Modern is a turn 4 format because top tier decks that win before turn 4 around 25% of the time receive bans. Wizards has NEVER shown to be relaxed on this criteria, they ban t4 violators with no remorse. People claiming that modern is anything other than a t4 format are being hyperbolic to form a narrative that fits their agenda, nothing more nothing less
UWRjeskai nahiri UWR
UBRgrixis titi UBR
UBRgrixis delverUBR
UR ur kikimite UR
EDH
RUG Riku of Two Reflections RUG
UBR Marchesa, the Black Rose UBR
UBRGYidris, Maelstrom Wielder UBRG
UBRJeleva, Nephalia's ScourgeUBR
("sheldon" :/)
Counter-Cat
Colorless Eldrazi Stompy
If anything in Infect or other pump spell decks has to go its going to be one of the following.
Gitaxian Probe
I like the card but it kinda does everything you want from a cantrip in the decks that run it. It draws, triggers prowess, feeds Delve, gives valuable information and the life loss isnt even a drawback in some of these decks. Feels the most likely to me if anything from the deck gets the ax but i dont think Infect is on the chopping block this time.
Mutagenic Growth
This card screams unfair. If a deck is trying to kill you as quickly as it can then it is running a set. Some similarities with Probe in these decks. Just adds too much consistency and speed.
Become Immense
Only reason i even mention this card is they have already banned 2 other power Delve spells from that block. If they want to cripple Deaths Shadow and knock Infect down a peg (And really, it probably gets swapped with Groundswell). Doesnt take Probe away from the sometimes fair-ish blue decks running them. If they really want to hit the pump decks but without banning Probe or Growth (the consistency) then it makes sense they take away the payoff (the power).
That said, i love Infect as a deck and i have never had a problem with the deck. BUT i have been playing decks with either 4 Path, 4 Decay MD or 4 Bolt, 3 Terminate, 2 Decay, ect. forever. It feels like it makes fair decks good. Removal, counters, discard, there are a ton of ways to beat Infect if that is your goal. I dont think this is where the main problem in Modern is though is definitely contributing to the insane speed of the meta.
My gut tells me they will ban the deck that promotes linearity. The 2 decks that jump out at me the most are Dredge and Bant Eldrazi. They arent unbeatable but they are harder to beat with any sort of fair strategy. Infect, Burn, Affinity, they all get shut down easily with SB cards or a deck built with interaction. Dredge and Bant Drazi dont, they encourage going over or under them and in this case, speeding the format up with the pump decks, the uptick in Burn, and Lantern. In the case of going over, GW Tron. Dredge can fight through hate real well, Conflag adds a new level of power to the deck, and aside from Anger of the Gods, Relic, or Leyline of the Void, there isnt a great way to hate it. Their SB is dedicated to beating hate. Conflag just lets it win if it gets to dredge some Loams. Aside from hate, you can race Dredge with Burn or Infect. Eldrazi Temple was the land i thought would be banned during Eldrazi Winter. Combined with mana dorks and hyper efficient, above the curve plays, fair decks will not do their job.
The last time Chalice of the Void or Relic of Progenitus were considered viable MD options in the format was during TC Delver and PT Oath of the Gatewatch, it was because the format was in a serious hole. When most of the spells in the format that are being played are all 0, 1, and 2 mana, Chalice becomes real appealing.
If anything has to go from either deck, it would likely be the Conflagrate from Dredge and either Ancient Stirrings or Eldrazi Temple from Bant Drazi.
I also doubt Wizards does nothing this go around. Its silly to see some cards on the ban list when we have Dredge putting half of its deck into the grave on turn 2, Eldrazi chaining Seers and Smasher's starting turn 2 and 3 respectively, and Infect (which is an unfair deck) is being considered the police deck of the format. Thats scary. Imagine if Amulet was considered a police deck, sure, every deck has to run some number of Blood Moon or go faster now. You have Rock, Paper, Scissors, and when Rock becomes an obsolete option, it kinda ruins the game doesnt it?
The format screams degeneracy. Taking a historical perspective on this format i cant see something not giving. If the format stays the same, or relatively, then viewers of GPs and Opens will get bored or upset after they see the same 4-12 decks (and most lists share some number of staples in Probe, Become Immense ect.) in the same matchups over and over. If the only changes to come to Modern come through Standard printings then, based on looking at the last 2 years worth of sets, i dont think we are in for a good time. I dont mind it, i will keep playing no matter what happens, i have had 4 decks banned from under me but i still have a half dozen sitting beside me, i will always find a deck to enjoy playing. I think this time around they will address Bant Eldrazi or Dredge through a banning. It might make viewers happy to see more interactive decks being promoted with their primary predator gone. I doubt they would do an unbanning right now considering how crazy the format is and banning something alone is likely enough to cause a stir for months. Infect is probably safe for now but its the deck to beat and historically that has been a scary thought.
U Tron
GW Bogles
RG Loam
UR Blue Breach
RBU Grixis Goryo
BRU Grixis Delver
GBR Jund
GBW Junk
Active Legacy Decks
BR Reanimator
Why in the world would the address Eldrazi in it's current form? It's completely fair right now.
Standard: lol no
Modern: BG/x, UR/x, Burn, Merfolk, Zoo, Storm
Legacy: Shardless BUG, Delver (BUG, RUG, Grixis), Landstill, Depths Combo, Merfolk
Vintage: Dark Times, BUG Fish, Merfolk
EDH: Teysa, Orzhov Scion / Krenko, Mob Boss / Stonebrow, Krosan Hero
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Big Johnny.
You are right, probe and growth fill the yard at the cost of 2 life....great. They feed delve....great. They feed delirium...great. They pump or give card draw.....great. What is wrong with these effects, exactly? Nothing! The fact that Becomme Immense abuses Moderns quickly filling graveyards, does not mean you ban the cards that fill those graveyards. I could make a kosher and obvious Holocaust reference here, but Im sure you are all smart enough to understand what Im trying to say.
Become Immense, IF ANYTHING, would be the ban target. Thats it. Lets not waste time talking about banning cards that will never be banned, or if were banned, would spell a dark, dark time for Modern.
RUG Temur Deprive Delver
BUG Sultai Deprive Delver
"weaker"
"as good of a job"
"too much card filtering"
"too many of the games"
"want to be highly re-playable"
These are not absolute statements. They're comparative. And they leave plenty of gray area. In my opinion, Ancient Stirrings actually doesn't come close to breaking Sam Stoddard's quote. Ancient Stirrings is a build-around card that requires a high density of lands, colorless cards, or both. It's currently used in only 2 archetypes that see a fair amount of play - Eldrazi and Tron. Those decks are a total of 9% of the metagame. That hardly breaks the "highly re-playable" or "too many of the games [...] play out the same way" rules that you've quoted. When only 1 out of 10 of your matches even includes the card, and it's only 4-of instead of what blue could do with 4 Preordain + 4 SV + 4 Sleight, the risk of things playing out the same way is tremendously reduced.
There's also a much higher bar for the blue cantrips to cross over in order to be safe as compared to a card like Ancient Stirrings. As mentioned, Stirrings requires you to build around it and will only ever fit into a couple of very specific decks. Ponder, Preordain, SV, Sleight, etc., require only blue mana and CAN fit (whether rightly or wrongly) in any and all decks running blue sources.
I still think that Preordain is a great unban choice, but in no way do I think Ponder is safe. I also see no reason at all to either ban Ancient Stirrings or even compare it to the cards currently on the ban list.
Standard: lol no
Modern: BG/x, UR/x, Burn, Merfolk, Zoo, Storm
Legacy: Shardless BUG, Delver (BUG, RUG, Grixis), Landstill, Depths Combo, Merfolk
Vintage: Dark Times, BUG Fish, Merfolk
EDH: Teysa, Orzhov Scion / Krenko, Mob Boss / Stonebrow, Krosan Hero
Standard: lol no
Modern: BG/x, UR/x, Burn, Merfolk, Zoo, Storm
Legacy: Shardless BUG, Delver (BUG, RUG, Grixis), Landstill, Depths Combo, Merfolk
Vintage: Dark Times, BUG Fish, Merfolk
EDH: Teysa, Orzhov Scion / Krenko, Mob Boss / Stonebrow, Krosan Hero
I also don't agree with a Dredge ban. I have no love for that deck but I don't see it breaking any rules. And as someone who plays a lot of decks but Jund is my primary one, I definitely feel the Dredge --- Jund --- Eldrazi squeeze.
But yes, I definitely DO agree with unbanning Preordain. Tempo, Blue-Control, and Spell-based Combo all need help right now and it would, to various degrees, benefit all of them.
Standard: lol no
Modern: BG/x, UR/x, Burn, Merfolk, Zoo, Storm
Legacy: Shardless BUG, Delver (BUG, RUG, Grixis), Landstill, Depths Combo, Merfolk
Vintage: Dark Times, BUG Fish, Merfolk
EDH: Teysa, Orzhov Scion / Krenko, Mob Boss / Stonebrow, Krosan Hero
Why would wizards unbanned a card they just banned because of issue last year. Twin will not be unbanned.
Truth, I don't think any cards deserve to be banned.
I also don't think anything we write matters.
Growth only goes into the hyper aggressive decks and it probably shouldnt be banned, but if they want to slow the pump decks across the board then it isnt a bad option. Everytime i play Probe, the information tends to be the most valuable aspect of the card. I only bring up the Phyrexian mana spells because they are a very strong and consistent way to play multiple spells in the early turns of a game for little to NO downside. I dont think that they are the MOST deserving of a ban from the pump decks, however if Wizards wants to avoid banning Become Immense, these are the next 2 targets.
If you read my post you would see that i dont think any of those (Phyrexian mana) cards should get removed right now, rather after the format has been slowed down (through other potential bannings first). But my arguement is that if the Dredge or Drazi decks take a hit, then the format will shift towards midrange decks which will keep these pump spell decks under control. Then these Phyrexian spells wont need to be considered to slow it down.
I do think Eldrazi and Dredge are creating a hostile metagame. Locally, i dont have too many of either to deal with, however in larger events they warp the format. You have to play something to go over or under. You just cant try to play fair in any way against them, aside from maybe Blood Moon or Anger of the Gods against Dredge unless it gets Thoughtseized.
This all depends on what Wizards wants to do, ban the decks that potentially kill before turn 4 or ban the decks that prevent interactive decks from policing the hyper aggressive decks running a million pump spells. The second sounds like a better choice to me since i know the aggro decks can be beaten by a fair deck and a kill spell. But what beats Dredge and Eldrazi? Unfair, early, aggressive pump spell decks.
U Tron
GW Bogles
RG Loam
UR Blue Breach
RBU Grixis Goryo
BRU Grixis Delver
GBR Jund
GBW Junk
Active Legacy Decks
BR Reanimator