Grixis is more capable of handling it than jund though, for sure. I think if Grixis has to, it can configure it's 75 and not be that bothered by souls. I think jund's going to have to make the most changes. Kalitas is just flat out worse now.
Both of the cards are pretty weak right now, granted, but on the whole, they're fine cards to play. If abzan becomes the deck to beat post revolt, then playing remands and electrolyzes is a fine place to be.
Leak > snap >leak is also not the weakest play to make. You're trading 2 cards to beat their one and get a 2/1.
I do agree with your jund comments.
The "blue jund" grixis lists are usually better against eldrazi, but still struggles against tron, in my experience.
It is important to remember that abzan will just be one deck at around 6-7% of the field. This is incredibly unlikely to affect jund/grixis shares, numbers that low can very easily be dodged even at a gp level event. If grixis is the better push deck, it wont be affected by abzan (incoming exaggeration to illustrate) since grixis would have a good matchup vs the other 92-94% of the field. Now, this requires grixis to actually be the better push deck to be true obviously, and it requires push to be good enough to make a large enough splash to (ban pun incoming) "push" up decks that are otherwise struggling currently
On stoneforge: i still think this card needs to come off, it does everything we want in modern, evidence shows it most likely wont be warping, and white needs something good in its life
On jtms: i really hope they dont unban him
On dredge: i made a post yesterday, it doesnt need a ban
It is important to remember that abzan will just be one deck at around 6-7% of the field. This is incredibly unlikely to affect jund/grixis shares, numbers that low can very easily be dodged even at a gp level event. If grixis is the better push deck, it wont be affected by abzan (incoming exaggeration to illustrate) since grixis would have a good matchup vs the other 92-94% of the field. Now, this requires grixis to actually be the better push deck to be true obviously, and it requires push to be good enough to make a large enough splash to (ban pun incoming) "push" up decks that are otherwise struggling currently
92-94% of the field? What universe is this where Abzan is the deck's worst and only bad matchup?
the card itself really isn't worth the card board its printed on...does it serve a purpose? Sure its a blue 1 drop that might not be a 1/1. I would not put it in a list and expect to win a PTQ or GP though.
It is important to remember that abzan will just be one deck at around 6-7% of the field. This is incredibly unlikely to affect jund/grixis shares, numbers that low can very easily be dodged even at a gp level event. If grixis is the better push deck, it wont be affected by abzan (incoming exaggeration to illustrate) since grixis would have a good matchup vs the other 92-94% of the field. Now, this requires grixis to actually be the better push deck to be true obviously, and it requires push to be good enough to make a large enough splash to (ban pun incoming) "push" up decks that are otherwise struggling currently
On stoneforge: i still think this card needs to come off, it does everything we want in modern, evidence shows it most likely wont be warping, and white needs something good in its life
On jtms: i really hope they dont unban him
On dredge: i made a post yesterday, it doesnt need a ban
If Junk/Abzan as a deck sees a big boost its likely a bad sign for Jund. Junk has always been better in the BG/x mirror lingering souls, path, and push...The real question will be does push change enough of Abzans other match ups to warrant selecting it over Jund against the rest of the Meta. Historically Junk has only been great when Jund has achieved a really heavy representation in the meta since the entire point is to prey on BG/x mirrors and would eventually be driven off by aggro decks that it had slightly less than favorable match up against. So will Push shift this paradigm or will the old conventional wisdom hold true. If FP gives Junk enough of a positive gain in its aggro match ups I could see Jund taking a more semi-permanent dip. If they unban SFM imo it would be a nail in the coffin of Jund and it might be justifiable to start looking at a BBE unban.
I disagree with you statements regarding SFM needing to come off the list. Could it come off sure I don't think it would break the format but I don't think it does anything to solve complaints people make regarding the format being to bent toward aggro atm it just gives white based mid-range and control decks a trump card against other mid-range and control decks.
It is important to remember that abzan will just be one deck at around 6-7% of the field. This is incredibly unlikely to affect jund/grixis shares, numbers that low can very easily be dodged even at a gp level event. If grixis is the better push deck, it wont be affected by abzan (incoming exaggeration to illustrate) since grixis would have a good matchup vs the other 92-94% of the field. Now, this requires grixis to actually be the better push deck to be true obviously, and it requires push to be good enough to make a large enough splash to (ban pun incoming) "push" up decks that are otherwise struggling currently
On stoneforge: i still think this card needs to come off, it does everything we want in modern, evidence shows it most likely wont be warping, and white needs something good in its life
On jtms: i really hope they dont unban him
On dredge: i made a post yesterday, it doesnt need a ban
If Junk/Abzan as a deck sees a big boost its likely a bad sign for Jund. Junk has always been better in the BG/x mirror lingering souls, path, and push...The real question will be does push change enough of Abzans other match ups to warrant selecting it over Jund against the rest of the Meta. Historically Junk has only been great when Jund has achieved a really heavy representation in the meta since the entire point is to prey on BG/x mirrors and would eventually be driven off by aggro decks that it had slightly less than favorable match up against. So will Push shift this paradigm or will the old conventional wisdom hold true. If FP gives Junk enough of a positive gain in its aggro match ups I could see Jund taking a more semi-permanent dip. If they unban SFM imo it would be a nail in the coffin of Jund and it might be justifiable to start looking at a BBE unban.
I disagree with you statements regarding SFM needing to come off the list. Could it come off sure I don't think it would break the format but I don't think it does anything to solve complaints people make regarding the format being to bent toward aggro atm it just gives white based mid-range and control decks a trump card against other mid-range and control decks.
agree with everything else
No, it also hurts aggro decks and forces interaction. SFM doesn't stop combo decks, she's definitely a bomb against a majority of archetypes
It is important to remember that abzan will just be one deck at around 6-7% of the field. This is incredibly unlikely to affect jund/grixis shares, numbers that low can very easily be dodged even at a gp level event. If grixis is the better push deck, it wont be affected by abzan (incoming exaggeration to illustrate) since grixis would have a good matchup vs the other 92-94% of the field. Now, this requires grixis to actually be the better push deck to be true obviously, and it requires push to be good enough to make a large enough splash to (ban pun incoming) "push" up decks that are otherwise struggling currently
On stoneforge: i still think this card needs to come off, it does everything we want in modern, evidence shows it most likely wont be warping, and white needs something good in its life
On jtms: i really hope they dont unban him
On dredge: i made a post yesterday, it doesnt need a ban
If Junk/Abzan as a deck sees a big boost its likely a bad sign for Jund. Junk has always been better in the BG/x mirror lingering souls, path, and push...The real question will be does push change enough of Abzans other match ups to warrant selecting it over Jund against the rest of the Meta. Historically Junk has only been great when Jund has achieved a really heavy representation in the meta since the entire point is to prey on BG/x mirrors and would eventually be driven off by aggro decks that it had slightly less than favorable match up against. So will Push shift this paradigm or will the old conventional wisdom hold true. If FP gives Junk enough of a positive gain in its aggro match ups I could see Jund taking a more semi-permanent dip. If they unban SFM imo it would be a nail in the coffin of Jund and it might be justifiable to start looking at a BBE unban.
I disagree with you statements regarding SFM needing to come off the list. Could it come off sure I don't think it would break the format but I don't think it does anything to solve complaints people make regarding the format being to bent toward aggro atm it just gives white based mid-range and control decks a trump card against other mid-range and control decks.
agree with everything else
No, it also hurts aggro decks and forces interaction. SFM doesn't stop combo decks, she's definitely a bomb against a majority of archetypes
I see the mid-range control match ups being improved by her but really the turn 3-4 decks in modern likely will not really care much about her as they are just to fast. burn has searing blaze and all of their anti-life gain affects already common in the decks. Infect doesn't care if you are trying to slam a big life linker t3, DSzoo runs alot of discard and URprowess can just kill through it with its main game plan TBR combo.
If anything I could see it being included into a SB burn package for grindy match ups, searching up soWar and Peace or Fire and Ice. But I don't see it forcing any real interaction against low end aggro and would imagine it would be SB'ed out more often because it a bit to slow.
I can't see Wizards unbanning SFM until they see what happens to Junk with Push in the format. With Junk potentially getting their bolt-esc early removal, it just doesn't make sense for SFM to come off of the list right now. They've kept BBE on the list for a similar principle, not to potentially strengthen up a Tier 1 deck. I don't think anyone can suggest that Junk isn't a Tier 1 deck now, it's already been putting up as many results as Jund, in the current metagame, without Push in the format.
I really don't think that will factor in to much. They were aware that the new Eldrazi might be to good in eternal formats and it didn't prevent them from making format reshaping bans just prior to its introduction to the format. I don't think the potential shifting of the format is going to alter their up coming announcements. I don't think that Junk is really a Tier 1, has it been putting up better results lately yes but I haven't seen anything reporting a larger share of the meta-game being occupied by Abzan, after all the construct of "tier" ranking decks mostly amounts to a popularity contest and doesn't by default represent if a deck is actually a great strategy for the current field.
It is important to remember that abzan will just be one deck at around 6-7% of the field. This is incredibly unlikely to affect jund/grixis shares, numbers that low can very easily be dodged even at a gp level event. If grixis is the better push deck, it wont be affected by abzan (incoming exaggeration to illustrate) since grixis would have a good matchup vs the other 92-94% of the field. Now, this requires grixis to actually be the better push deck to be true obviously, and it requires push to be good enough to make a large enough splash to (ban pun incoming) "push" up decks that are otherwise struggling currently
On stoneforge: i still think this card needs to come off, it does everything we want in modern, evidence shows it most likely wont be warping, and white needs something good in its life
On jtms: i really hope they dont unban him
On dredge: i made a post yesterday, it doesnt need a ban
If Junk/Abzan as a deck sees a big boost its likely a bad sign for Jund. Junk has always been better in the BG/x mirror lingering souls, path, and push...The real question will be does push change enough of Abzans other match ups to warrant selecting it over Jund against the rest of the Meta. Historically Junk has only been great when Jund has achieved a really heavy representation in the meta since the entire point is to prey on BG/x mirrors and would eventually be driven off by aggro decks that it had slightly less than favorable match up against. So will Push shift this paradigm or will the old conventional wisdom hold true. If FP gives Junk enough of a positive gain in its aggro match ups I could see Jund taking a more semi-permanent dip. If they unban SFM imo it would be a nail in the coffin of Jund and it might be justifiable to start looking at a BBE unban.
I disagree with you statements regarding SFM needing to come off the list. Could it come off sure I don't think it would break the format but I don't think it does anything to solve complaints people make regarding the format being to bent toward aggro atm it just gives white based mid-range and control decks a trump card against other mid-range and control decks.
agree with everything else
No, it also hurts aggro decks and forces interaction. SFM doesn't stop combo decks, she's definitely a bomb against a majority of archetypes
I see the mid-range control match ups being improved by her but really the turn 3-4 decks in modern likely will not really care much about her as they are just to fast. burn has searing blaze and all of their anti-life gain affects already common in the decks. Infect doesn't care if you are trying to slam a big life linker t3, DSzoo runs alot of discard and URprowess can just kill through it with its main game plan TBR combo.
If anything I could see it being included into a SB burn package for grindy match ups, searching up soWar and Peace or Fire and Ice. But I don't see it forcing any real interaction against low end aggro and would imagine it would be SB'ed out more often because it a bit to slow.
I feel like outside of you mentioning searing blaze everything in that post was incorrect
I can't see Wizards unbanning SFM until they see what happens to Junk with Push in the format. With Junk potentially getting their bolt-esc early removal, it just doesn't make sense for SFM to come off of the list right now. They've kept BBE on the list for a similar principle, not to potentially strengthen up a Tier 1 deck. I don't think anyone can suggest that Junk isn't a Tier 1 deck now, it's already been putting up as many results as Jund, in the current metagame, without Push in the format.
That was my thought of thinking, too.
At the same time, she powers blue cards not abzan, too.
The more I think about it, the more I see Wotc not Unbanning anything next week.
It is important to remember that abzan will just be one deck at around 6-7% of the field. This is incredibly unlikely to affect jund/grixis shares, numbers that low can very easily be dodged even at a gp level event. If grixis is the better push deck, it wont be affected by abzan (incoming exaggeration to illustrate) since grixis would have a good matchup vs the other 92-94% of the field. Now, this requires grixis to actually be the better push deck to be true obviously, and it requires push to be good enough to make a large enough splash to (ban pun incoming) "push" up decks that are otherwise struggling currently
On stoneforge: i still think this card needs to come off, it does everything we want in modern, evidence shows it most likely wont be warping, and white needs something good in its life
On jtms: i really hope they dont unban him
On dredge: i made a post yesterday, it doesnt need a ban
If Junk/Abzan as a deck sees a big boost its likely a bad sign for Jund. Junk has always been better in the BG/x mirror lingering souls, path, and push...The real question will be does push change enough of Abzans other match ups to warrant selecting it over Jund against the rest of the Meta. Historically Junk has only been great when Jund has achieved a really heavy representation in the meta since the entire point is to prey on BG/x mirrors and would eventually be driven off by aggro decks that it had slightly less than favorable match up against. So will Push shift this paradigm or will the old conventional wisdom hold true. If FP gives Junk enough of a positive gain in its aggro match ups I could see Jund taking a more semi-permanent dip. If they unban SFM imo it would be a nail in the coffin of Jund and it might be justifiable to start looking at a BBE unban.
I disagree with you statements regarding SFM needing to come off the list. Could it come off sure I don't think it would break the format but I don't think it does anything to solve complaints people make regarding the format being to bent toward aggro atm it just gives white based mid-range and control decks a trump card against other mid-range and control decks.
agree with everything else
No, it also hurts aggro decks and forces interaction. SFM doesn't stop combo decks, she's definitely a bomb against a majority of archetypes
I see the mid-range control match ups being improved by her but really the turn 3-4 decks in modern likely will not really care much about her as they are just to fast. burn has searing blaze and all of their anti-life gain affects already common in the decks. Infect doesn't care if you are trying to slam a big life linker t3, DSzoo runs alot of discard and URprowess can just kill through it with its main game plan TBR combo.
If anything I could see it being included into a SB burn package for grindy match ups, searching up soWar and Peace or Fire and Ice. But I don't see it forcing any real interaction against low end aggro and would imagine it would be SB'ed out more often because it a bit to slow.
I feel like outside of you mentioning searing blaze everything in that post was incorrect
How does SFM really do anything to slow down any of the super fast aggro-combo decks? most of them have built in methods of ignoring whatever creatures you have on board, I've been killed by URprowess and DSzoo through blockers with bigger buts than a x/2
I think the heavy testing from Modern Nexus points to Stoneforge Mystic being as safe for an unban as say Thopter Foundry was. But I also think that WotC is going to be leery of unbanning her with having just printed the most Modern-relevant card likely since the format's inception in Fatal Push.
Given the "Gut feelings and a little testing" formula that WotC uses for Modern unbans, I think it's very likely that they'd give some weight to the MN testing as a kind of professional crowdsourcing. Along with that, consider that:
Wizards likes highly interactive formats, and SFM encourages interaction while being easy to interact with (more than ever now, with Push and K-Command)
Wizards dislikes metas full of fast, linear decks, which SFM helps curtail (even if in Abzan specially it only really shores up the Burn matchup), either by adding a roadblock or by encouraging linear decks to run more interaction while also being completely possible to play around
Wizards has stated that a diversity of decks is one of their goals, and at present white sees very poor Modern representation while Equipment hardly exists outside Cranial Plating
Wizards has stated that they want to have the smallest possible banlist
Taking all that into consideration, I'd see it as more likely than not that she comes off the banlist at some point. But I can also see them wanting to wait on account of Fatal Push.
Which incidentally means how about that Preordain, eh eh? (Although personally I'm expecting no unbans January and a bombshell April 2017.)
Private Mod Note
():
Rollback Post to RevisionRollBack
Playing UX Mana Denial until Modern gets the answers it needs.
WUBRG Humans BRW Mardu Pyromancer UW UW "Control" UR Blue Moon
Junk is definitely tier 1 deck, results clearly show this and I assume it will be even better when Fatal Push becomes legal. Lightning Bolt equivalent removal is what Junk lacked and now it got it. Now it's as good against aggro as Jund but better against other grindy decks due to lingering souls. It's only real weakness are ramp decks (Tron, Eldrazi, RG Breach,...) and heavily gy based deck such as Living End and Dredge.
If Wizards don't want to unban card that could potentially help tier 1 decks, which I believe is their goal, then SFM shouldn't be unbanned. Another problem is that she's only good against aggro and midrange decks while being useless against combo and ramp decks and these (Eldrazi, Tron) are already good enough and will become even better with Fatal Push and expecting rise of midrange decks. So SFM would only hurt midrange decks which isn't necessary since the aren't too powerful and too dominant and faster aggressive decks which will already take a hit by Fatal Push.
I don't think SFM should come off ever and if already does at some point (which I doubt) this time is certainly not now. We need to wait and see how Fatal Push will handle decks that SFM would be also good against. If it doesn't help enough then we can start talking about SFM, till then it doesn't make sense.
I feel like you're only thinking of SFM as if she's an Abzan card only. She'd give other blue decks what they need to stem aggro
There's a chance it doesn't say anything about modern and only says, "Emrakul is banned, she's ******* up standard", followed by a Gideon, Ally of Zendikar spike
I can't see Wizards unbanning SFM until they see what happens to Junk with Push in the format. With Junk potentially getting their bolt-esc early removal, it just doesn't make sense for SFM to come off of the list right now. They've kept BBE on the list for a similar principle, not to potentially strengthen up a Tier 1 deck. I don't think anyone can suggest that Junk isn't a Tier 1 deck now, it's already been putting up as many results as Jund, in the current metagame, without Push in the format.
I really don't think that will factor in to much. They were aware that the new Eldrazi might be to good in eternal formats and it didn't prevent them from making format reshaping bans just prior to its introduction to the format. I don't think the potential shifting of the format is going to alter their up coming announcements. I don't think that Junk is really a Tier 1, has it been putting up better results lately yes but I haven't seen anything reporting a larger share of the meta-game being occupied by Abzan, after all the construct of "tier" ranking decks mostly amounts to a popularity contest and doesn't by default represent if a deck is actually a great strategy for the current field.
If Junk isn't currently Tier 1 then neither is Jund. From the results I've seen it's been putting up at least equal, if not slightly more, top 8 results to Jund - which is reflected by the metagame breakdowns of the main websites too. While I agree that Tiers are, in general, a popularity contest, Junk is really well positioned in the current meta with backbreaking main deck answers to many top tier decks and great SB options versus many others. With Push it's likely to further increase its metashare and be a solid Tier 1 deck. While I'm not for or against a SFM unban I do think WotC would be stupid to not "wait and see" what effect Push has on the format before they go ahead and release her.
I agree with your assessment of Junk currently but I think a fundamental part of what puts something in Tier 1 status is sustained prevalence. Lots of Tier 1.5 running around currently like Abzan and Grixis(which I regularly play) fall short when it comes to the sustaining a meta-share. I think if Dredge maintains as Tier 1 deck than Junk will likely also, if its hated out of Tier 1 then Junk probably goes back down with it. Imo that match up is the main reason to be on Junk over Jund and without it Jund stays on top as the Best BG/x deck. Personally I think FPush will likely make bigger splashes in Mardu than Abzan and might push a Mardu deck into Tier 1.5 or higher status the deck will have access to the best creature removal in the format and has a better long game than most realize.
On that note I don't think it will make BUG or Fairies a T1.5+ deck, I think Grixis stand to gain a lot from it given that they are the only mid-range deck thats threats don't just get crushed by this on average. Esper I think stands to gain a good bit also but that is a deck that has always just barely not been good enough so I reserve my opinion somewhat because it just seems to never make it.
After reading WotC stating they knew the new Eldarzi could be dangerous in Modern etc... and not to preemptively ban highly risky oppressive deck out. I doubt it works in reverse, they are in a win-win situation really on the ban update if they unban something and it proves to wreck the format they it will just drive more players to standard until they can correct at the next B&R or its no big deal and players are currently happy.
So clearly something's getting the axe, and probably from Standard since the timing is probably to get it in ahead of PT. Of course they could also drop a Modern bomb; this doesn't preclude that.
On that note I don't think it will make BUG or Fairies a T1.5+ deck, I think Grixis stand to gain a lot from it given that they are the only mid-range deck thats threats don't just get crushed by this on average. Esper I think stands to gain a good bit also but that is a deck that has always just barely not been good enough so I reserve my opinion somewhat because it just seems to never make it.
IMO the biggest thing that holds Esper back is the lack of good 1-CMC creature removal. Outside that, their threat and disruption suite is almost identical to Grixis', which as you noted is already getting there. Plus you can add Celestial Colonnade into the mix. IMO the biggest things it misses are Bolt-Snap-Bolt to finish out games (a big deal, granted) and the value engine that is K-Command. But it also gets Lingering Souls, Path, and an extraordinary sideboard suite.
So I can see Esper making some big strides. Fatal Push doesn't fix all of its shortcomings, but it goes a long ways towards rectifying the biggest one.
It is important to remember that abzan will just be one deck at around 6-7% of the field. This is incredibly unlikely to affect jund/grixis shares, numbers that low can very easily be dodged even at a gp level event. If grixis is the better push deck, it wont be affected by abzan (incoming exaggeration to illustrate) since grixis would have a good matchup vs the other 92-94% of the field. Now, this requires grixis to actually be the better push deck to be true obviously, and it requires push to be good enough to make a large enough splash to (ban pun incoming) "push" up decks that are otherwise struggling currently
92-94% of the field? What universe is this where Abzan is the deck's worst and only bad matchup?
That is weird indeed. Grixis suffer from Tron, Dredge, Bant Eldrazi, Tokens, Bogles, RG Titanshift, Scapeshift, outside of Junk, and this card does not help in any of those matchups.
Cmon guys, reading is fundamental, i wrote "incoming exaggeration to illustrate" just to avoid this XD.
I wrote that very late at night for me, unfortunately it was poorly phrased. What i was saying is that it doesn't matter if abzan is a bad matchup for grixis, if grixis is good vs most of the rest of the field then it will do well, regardless of a t1 abzan. 6-8% decks do not affect the playability of other decks in the format
Mardu has the best removal suite in the entire format, push doesn't do a thing for the deck. It's lacking win cons. If a Goyf like creature could be played in Mardu, Jund and Junk would absolutely not be the better decks
Mardu needs more 2 CMC bombs, as of now Bob is their only great creature in the decks. They also can't play Flayer, so that also dodged the creatures they're starved for
Junk is not going to go down if dredge does. What is your reasoning for this? I'd rather be casting anger of fires all day.
There will be a Standard ban for sure. Timing probably moved up so PT players have more time to prepare for a new format. In fact, I'd bet Wizards cites that extra time as the reason for moving up the update.
It could also be that there's the beta leak and it always spoils things before they announce it anyway, that's what happened with Twin and Bloom last year
Something Emrakul related is getting banned in standard, I think, the format is doing very poorly and has come down to cheating Emrakul or dropping Gideon down. I imagine WOTC is unhappy reading all these articles about what a slump their most focused format is performing
Nightmare scenario, they didn't realize a twin combo would happen for standard and they're preemptively banning something. That's more a lolidoubt it scenario though.
I hope modern changes are being announced, I'll be very sad if no changes are announced
Both of the cards are pretty weak right now, granted, but on the whole, they're fine cards to play. If abzan becomes the deck to beat post revolt, then playing remands and electrolyzes is a fine place to be.
Leak > snap >leak is also not the weakest play to make. You're trading 2 cards to beat their one and get a 2/1.
I do agree with your jund comments.
The "blue jund" grixis lists are usually better against eldrazi, but still struggles against tron, in my experience.
On stoneforge: i still think this card needs to come off, it does everything we want in modern, evidence shows it most likely wont be warping, and white needs something good in its life
On jtms: i really hope they dont unban him
On dredge: i made a post yesterday, it doesnt need a ban
UWRjeskai nahiri UWR
UBRgrixis titi UBR
UBRgrixis delverUBR
UR ur kikimite UR
EDH
RUG Riku of Two Reflections RUG
UBR Marchesa, the Black Rose UBR
UBRGYidris, Maelstrom Wielder UBRG
UBRJeleva, Nephalia's ScourgeUBR
Counter-Cat
Colorless Eldrazi Stompy
If Junk/Abzan as a deck sees a big boost its likely a bad sign for Jund. Junk has always been better in the BG/x mirror lingering souls, path, and push...The real question will be does push change enough of Abzans other match ups to warrant selecting it over Jund against the rest of the Meta. Historically Junk has only been great when Jund has achieved a really heavy representation in the meta since the entire point is to prey on BG/x mirrors and would eventually be driven off by aggro decks that it had slightly less than favorable match up against. So will Push shift this paradigm or will the old conventional wisdom hold true. If FP gives Junk enough of a positive gain in its aggro match ups I could see Jund taking a more semi-permanent dip. If they unban SFM imo it would be a nail in the coffin of Jund and it might be justifiable to start looking at a BBE unban.
I disagree with you statements regarding SFM needing to come off the list. Could it come off sure I don't think it would break the format but I don't think it does anything to solve complaints people make regarding the format being to bent toward aggro atm it just gives white based mid-range and control decks a trump card against other mid-range and control decks.
agree with everything else
No, it also hurts aggro decks and forces interaction. SFM doesn't stop combo decks, she's definitely a bomb against a majority of archetypes
I see the mid-range control match ups being improved by her but really the turn 3-4 decks in modern likely will not really care much about her as they are just to fast. burn has searing blaze and all of their anti-life gain affects already common in the decks. Infect doesn't care if you are trying to slam a big life linker t3, DSzoo runs alot of discard and URprowess can just kill through it with its main game plan TBR combo.
If anything I could see it being included into a SB burn package for grindy match ups, searching up soWar and Peace or Fire and Ice. But I don't see it forcing any real interaction against low end aggro and would imagine it would be SB'ed out more often because it a bit to slow.
I really don't think that will factor in to much. They were aware that the new Eldrazi might be to good in eternal formats and it didn't prevent them from making format reshaping bans just prior to its introduction to the format. I don't think the potential shifting of the format is going to alter their up coming announcements. I don't think that Junk is really a Tier 1, has it been putting up better results lately yes but I haven't seen anything reporting a larger share of the meta-game being occupied by Abzan, after all the construct of "tier" ranking decks mostly amounts to a popularity contest and doesn't by default represent if a deck is actually a great strategy for the current field.
I feel like outside of you mentioning searing blaze everything in that post was incorrect
That was my thought of thinking, too.
At the same time, she powers blue cards not abzan, too.
The more I think about it, the more I see Wotc not Unbanning anything next week.
How does SFM really do anything to slow down any of the super fast aggro-combo decks? most of them have built in methods of ignoring whatever creatures you have on board, I've been killed by URprowess and DSzoo through blockers with bigger buts than a x/2
Given the "Gut feelings and a little testing" formula that WotC uses for Modern unbans, I think it's very likely that they'd give some weight to the MN testing as a kind of professional crowdsourcing. Along with that, consider that:
Which incidentally means how about that Preordain, eh eh? (Although personally I'm expecting no unbans January and a bombshell April 2017.)
WUBRG Humans
BRW Mardu Pyromancer
UW UW "Control"
UR Blue Moon
UWRjeskai nahiri UWR
UBRgrixis titi UBR
UBRgrixis delverUBR
UR ur kikimite UR
EDH
RUG Riku of Two Reflections RUG
UBR Marchesa, the Black Rose UBR
UBRGYidris, Maelstrom Wielder UBRG
UBRJeleva, Nephalia's ScourgeUBR
Could be changes in another format, but we'll see soon enough.
WGUBR 5c Humans
GWR Naya Zoo
Legacy:
GW GW Maverick
R Goblins
I feel like you're only thinking of SFM as if she's an Abzan card only. She'd give other blue decks what they need to stem aggro
There's a chance it doesn't say anything about modern and only says, "Emrakul is banned, she's ******* up standard", followed by a Gideon, Ally of Zendikar spike
Blue and white also go well together, it powers up death and taxes, and white has been horrendous in comparison to the colors of modern.
White is still the only color without a good 2 cmc creature
I agree with your assessment of Junk currently but I think a fundamental part of what puts something in Tier 1 status is sustained prevalence. Lots of Tier 1.5 running around currently like Abzan and Grixis(which I regularly play) fall short when it comes to the sustaining a meta-share. I think if Dredge maintains as Tier 1 deck than Junk will likely also, if its hated out of Tier 1 then Junk probably goes back down with it. Imo that match up is the main reason to be on Junk over Jund and without it Jund stays on top as the Best BG/x deck. Personally I think FPush will likely make bigger splashes in Mardu than Abzan and might push a Mardu deck into Tier 1.5 or higher status the deck will have access to the best creature removal in the format and has a better long game than most realize.
On that note I don't think it will make BUG or Fairies a T1.5+ deck, I think Grixis stand to gain a lot from it given that they are the only mid-range deck thats threats don't just get crushed by this on average. Esper I think stands to gain a good bit also but that is a deck that has always just barely not been good enough so I reserve my opinion somewhat because it just seems to never make it.
After reading WotC stating they knew the new Eldarzi could be dangerous in Modern etc... and not to preemptively ban highly risky oppressive deck out. I doubt it works in reverse, they are in a win-win situation really on the ban update if they unban something and it proves to wreck the format they it will just drive more players to standard until they can correct at the next B&R or its no big deal and players are currently happy.
IMO the biggest thing that holds Esper back is the lack of good 1-CMC creature removal. Outside that, their threat and disruption suite is almost identical to Grixis', which as you noted is already getting there. Plus you can add Celestial Colonnade into the mix. IMO the biggest things it misses are Bolt-Snap-Bolt to finish out games (a big deal, granted) and the value engine that is K-Command. But it also gets Lingering Souls, Path, and an extraordinary sideboard suite.
So I can see Esper making some big strides. Fatal Push doesn't fix all of its shortcomings, but it goes a long ways towards rectifying the biggest one.
WUBRG Humans
BRW Mardu Pyromancer
UW UW "Control"
UR Blue Moon
Cmon guys, reading is fundamental, i wrote "incoming exaggeration to illustrate" just to avoid this XD.
I wrote that very late at night for me, unfortunately it was poorly phrased. What i was saying is that it doesn't matter if abzan is a bad matchup for grixis, if grixis is good vs most of the rest of the field then it will do well, regardless of a t1 abzan. 6-8% decks do not affect the playability of other decks in the format
UWRjeskai nahiri UWR
UBRgrixis titi UBR
UBRgrixis delverUBR
UR ur kikimite UR
EDH
RUG Riku of Two Reflections RUG
UBR Marchesa, the Black Rose UBR
UBRGYidris, Maelstrom Wielder UBRG
UBRJeleva, Nephalia's ScourgeUBR
Mardu needs more 2 CMC bombs, as of now Bob is their only great creature in the decks. They also can't play Flayer, so that also dodged the creatures they're starved for
Junk is not going to go down if dredge does. What is your reasoning for this? I'd rather be casting anger of fires all day.
Hopefully we get the Modern news too!
Something Emrakul related is getting banned in standard, I think, the format is doing very poorly and has come down to cheating Emrakul or dropping Gideon down. I imagine WOTC is unhappy reading all these articles about what a slump their most focused format is performing
Nightmare scenario, they didn't realize a twin combo would happen for standard and they're preemptively banning something. That's more a lolidoubt it scenario though.
I hope modern changes are being announced, I'll be very sad if no changes are announced
https://twitter.com/samstod/status/808572393346076676
There may be some Modern-related bans/unbans anyhow.
| Ad Nauseam
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Big Johnny.