So idk about a Jace the mindsculpter unban but I think SFM would be fine. It maybe gives Abzan a leg up against jund but since Jund already got a leg up w/ new Lili etc. I think that would just put them back in the arm wrestling match they've been in for years than make Abzan significantly better. What I mainly think is that SFM would make fringe decks like Equipment, white weenie, and maybe titan control a very powerful new tool to work with. I know SFM into Batterskull is good but between md K-commands and everyone and their mother playing artifact hate anyway to hit affinity I don't feel SFM would be oppressive.
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My Decks:
UG Merfolk RG 8-Whack BWG Abzan midrange GRB Living End UWB Spirit Control
GU Kruphix's "Hug Assassin" RW Kalemne's "Play Fatties and Hope for the Best!" BUGW Atraxa's "All counters, all the time"
but besides that:
Not only Stoneforge Mystic and Jace, The Mind Sculptor suffer in WOTC's eyes from the same problems that Splinter Twin was suffering from(auto-include as win cons into all of fair decks and reducing diversity amongst fair decks, meaning we would have Grixis jace, Jeskai jace, Esper Jace, just like we had UR Twin, Grixis Twin, Jeskai Twin or Abzanblade, EsperBlade, JeskaiBlade etc) but those cards could potentially be disastrous for another, fairer meta.
The problem with this logic is currently like every fair deck can be classified like this, since fair decks are just piles of the best cards, not individually weak cards made strong through synergy. Like, we currently have jund goyf, abzan goyf, temur goyf, jeskai nahiri, mardu nahiri, grixis snapcaster, jeskai snapcaster, esper snapcaster, etc. Should we ban those cards too?
the results thus far, 80 games in. recorded specific decks and overall win rate out of my own curiousity, but figured those numbers might be interesting as well
edit: i chose to be selective on scooping. one of them was a tron player scooping to t2 blighted agent, which i counted since the infet player had him dead in hand. the other was a burn player who scooped on his own turn 3 on the play due to mana screw. he was not deaad in hand. i counted the tron game but not the burn game
What events are included here? PTs and GPs only? Or also SCG Opens?
I just really don't buy the whole "SFM would just go in every white deck" argument. There are always going to be powerful cards in each color that get played in almost every deck that plays that color. Blue has Snapcaster Mage, red has Lightning Bolt, green has Tarmogoyf, etc. Should these cards be banned because they "reduce diversity?" No, that's ridiculous. So why are we so scared of white decks playing SFM? I think it would be cool to have equipment become relevant in the format.
Not only Stoneforge Mystic and Jace, The Mind Sculptor suffer in WOTC's eyes from the same problems that Splinter Twin was suffering from(auto-include as win cons into all of fair decks and reducing diversity amongst fair decks, meaning we would have Grixis jace, Jeskai jace, Esper Jace, just like we had UR Twin, Grixis Twin, Jeskai Twin or Abzanblade, EsperBlade, JeskaiBlade etc) but those cards could potentially be disastrous for another, fairer meta.
Do we call it Jund Liliana, Abzan Liliana, or Mardu Liliana? No. Nobody has a problem with all the black midrange decks playing Liliana, why do you have a problem with blue midrange and control decks potentially playing Jace? How are these two things any different?
SFM + equipment is a "package," but Snapcaster + instants and sorceries isn't? At least with Snapcaster, he's synergizing with something you would be doing anyway. There's a reason nobody plays equipment in Modern. SFM just makes equipment playable, but if she dies before you get to untap with her, you're sitting there with a 5 mana equipment in your hand that you might die before you can even cast. And even when you do cast it, there's a good chance it won't be enough to save you. And I don't think a deck could get away with SFM as their only wincon, Jund would be an unwinnable matchup if you did. In my testing of SFM, I never got to untap with one against Jund in like 15 games played. Even in games where I got to just hard cast the Batterskull, it usually wasn't good enough by itself. You're trying to play a 5 mana 4/4 Vigilance Lifelink while your opponent is playing 2 mana 6/7s.
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Modern UBR Grixis Shadow UBR UR Izzet Phoenix UR UW UW Control UW GB GB Rock GB
Commander BG Meren of Clan Nel Toth BG BGUW Atraxa, Praetor's Voice BGUW
SCG modern open placement -- clearly the benchmark for modern success. I'm not trying to be overly flip but if you look at the decks that place in SCG opens it tells the entire story of why it's ridiculous to look exclusively at those as a metric.
First off, we don't know what percentage of the field is specifically in the inbred field that is SCG opens. You'd need to do that first.
Secondly, the meta is as I said so ridiculous and inbred I would really hesitate to draw any conclusions based on it.
SCG Opens are inbred? What are you smoking? These events are open to the public and each one gets literally hundreds of players from all over the country; it's not like the pro tour where it's a small, exclusive group of people, many of whom build and playtest with each other. Also, SCG releases day 2 meta statistics, so it should be easy to see if there's a difference between them and say MTGO.
The truth of SCG Opens is actually somewhere between what you and Pokken are saying. They're not "inbred" like PTs and Worlds are. That much seems obvious. But they're basically just a regionals tournament plus a group of a specific 20 people or so who go to them wherever they are in the hopes of making the Player's Championship. So the metas are actually fairly predictable. If you know what those 20 players gravitate toward, which you do, then you just need to figure out the local scene.
Despite going to a 2-day format and 15 rounds plus top 8, the competition level at SCG Opens are still closer to PPTQs than they are to GPs. GPs are what you describe - hundreds of people traveling over the world to get there.
To my knowledge, all the SCG Opens typically have a minimum of 300-400 players at them, often more than that, and you're saying that 20 players is enough to determine the meta? That's literally less than 1% of the field. Granted, they aren't quite as big as a GP, but it's way bigger than a PPTQ, which is usually around the 50 mark. I play in usually ~3 Opens per year, and I'm always meeting people who drove like 10 hours to get there - they are a lot bigger than you would expect.
SFM could possibly be control finisher in a deck with colonnades, snaps, and possibly either lingering souls or some other token producer (say 4-drop Gideon or Sorin or something).
Those decks would have Sphinx's revelation and cryptic as anti-Jund trump cards, and probably be able to get there. I'm not 100% sure Esper/UW control would want a win package that takes up so many slots though it is nice for it to be so mana efficient.
Typically a UW control or Esper control deck will run 3-4 colonnades and then 2-4 planeswalkers as wincons, and while that is a lot denser than 6-7 card stoneforge package, the Stoneforge package has the benefit of being a lot better from a tempo perspective (letting you play at instant speed more and also requiring less up front mana investment).
I always felt it was rough to have to tap out for Elspeth or Gideon in my UW control deck and would definitely try out SFM.
But would it be busted? Eh. Those decks already beat Jund handily. Ask any Jund player what his win rate is against Esper control, it's probably like 30-40% at best.
The concern would be whether SFM gives control decks too much of an edge vs. aggro or big mana, and I doubt that is the case.
The other potential for concern is whether SFM decks dominate in non-control midrange brawls, and I think we've seen plenty in legacy to say that they likely do not -- SFM is good in midrange grinds, but it doesn't keep Jund and Merfolk from being really difficult matchups.
SCG Opens are inbred? What are you smoking? These events are open to the public and each one gets literally hundreds of players from all over the country; it's not like the pro tour where it's a small, exclusive group of people, many of whom build and playtest with each other. Also, SCG releases day 2 meta statistics, so it should be easy to see if there's a difference between them and say MTGO.
The truth of SCG Opens is actually somewhere between what you and Pokken are saying. They're not "inbred" like PTs and Worlds are. That much seems obvious. But they're basically just a regionals tournament plus a group of a specific 20 people or so who go to them wherever they are in the hopes of making the Player's Championship. So the metas are actually fairly predictable. If you know what those 20 players gravitate toward, which you do, then you just need to figure out the local scene.
Despite going to a 2-day format and 15 rounds plus top 8, the competition level at SCG Opens are still closer to PPTQs than they are to GPs. GPs are what you describe - hundreds of people traveling over the world to get there.
To my knowledge, all the SCG Opens typically have a minimum of 300-400 players at them, often more than that, and you're saying that 20 players is enough to determine the meta? That's literally less than 1% of the field. Granted, they aren't quite as big as a GP, but it's way bigger than a PPTQ, which is usually around the 50 mark. I play in usually ~3 Opens per year, and I'm always meeting people who drove like 10 hours to get there - they are a lot bigger than you would expect.
that is not what I said. Please read it again.
How exactly do you figure out the meta for an event that people (who mostly don't know/play with each other) travel to from numerous states? I don't think that makes the meta any more or less predictable than anywhere else. And I disagree on the PPTQ - Open - GP scale; I've played in all of those event types and the competition level between an Open and a GP isn't all that different.
No matter what event you go to you never know exactly what you'll be paired against, but you can certainly metagame for anything. With SCG Opens, you really don't get many people traveling. The players in the Open whose names we all know travel, but other than that people don't typically drive more than just a few hours to get to them. So like I said earlier, which you somehow misinterpreted, you know what the players whose names we know will be on (with fairly good confidence - Tom Ross is usually on Infect, though he went with 8-Rack this last time, so it's not infallible). So the next step is to figure out the regional metagame. In the Chicago/Michigan area there isn't a whole lot of Affinity, so if you're light on SB slots you might shave there. Of course that doesn't mean there won't be Affinity in the room, but you can expect less of it. In New England people will either play Control or the de-facto best deck.
People "travel" to SCGs but not even remotely close to the way they do for GPs. The level of competition between SCGs and GPs are ENORMOUSLY different. You may have played in each of them, but if you were oblivious to the differences then you're probably not accustomed to higher level play and/or not at the winning tables.
the results thus far, 80 games in. recorded specific decks and overall win rate out of my own curiousity, but figured those numbers might be interesting as well
edit: i chose to be selective on scooping. one of them was a tron player scooping to t2 blighted agent, which i counted since the infet player had him dead in hand. the other was a burn player who scooped on his own turn 3 on the play due to mana screw. he was not deaad in hand. i counted the tron game but not the burn game
What events are included here? PTs and GPs only? Or also SCG Opens?
Pt ogw, gp la, gp indy, scg opens, and a youtube series by owen turtenwald
Go look at the recent top 32 at the SCG Open. 1 Jund list and 2 Jeskai lists in a sea of linearity. Face the facts: the format is ultra linear right now.
Tiers indicate prevalence in the metagame, not tournament results or chances of success. People will stubbornly continue to play interactive decks like Jund in spite of the fact that they are not good choices for spiking an event.
Wizards- "We broke these decks as planned, good we can ban something in them now"
Ban - Grave troll dredge is bonkers now
- mutigenic growth or become immense- infect has become harder to intract with or race, and has top 8ed to many times.
And hopefully unbans to shake things up next time around
Infect has had 4 top 8's since march, jund has had much more than that, do you think jund needs the axe too?
Infect has put 7 pilots into the top 8s of SCG Opens since March 1st. Jund has placed 6 pilots (see the attached picture) into the top 8s of SCG Opens during the same time frame. Jund has more than twice as many pilots. Infect is, in no uncertain terms, a better deck than Jund.
Really? Is this why Infect has been at times at tier 2? Is that why Jund has +4% meta share? Is this why Jund has terrific day 2 metashares(even if it does not win that easily)?
Infect is running good, because the Control decks are on the decline now. If the meta was more Jund-ish/Controll-ish, the Infect deck could go back to tier 2. Jund is more of a "safe bet" for being best deck, although it is not.
Infect is, by no means, a better deck than Jund. Neither is Jund a better deck than Infect. The meta has no best deck at the moment. It has 5-6 good decks. Plus, everybody believes there is a different "best deck". IMO, Bant Eldrazi may be the best deck in Modern atm. Maybe.
No, that's not even remotely true. The Infect deck can consistently kill on T3-T4 through hand disruption. It wont ever be tier two based on the current card pool. It got even better with a new pump spell in Kaladesh which "does it all" for 2 mana.
Wizards- "We broke these decks as planned, good we can ban something in them now"
Ban - Grave troll dredge is bonkers now
- mutigenic growth or become immense- infect has become harder to intract with or race, and has top 8ed to many times.
And hopefully unbans to shake things up next time around
Infect has had 4 top 8's since march, jund has had much more than that, do you think jund needs the axe too?
Infect has put 7 pilots into the top 8s of SCG Opens since March 1st. Jund has placed 6 pilots (see the attached picture) into the top 8s of SCG Opens during the same time frame. Jund has more than twice as many pilots. Infect is, in no uncertain terms, a better deck than Jund.
Really? Is this why Infect has been at times at tier 2? Is that why Jund has +4% meta share? Is this why Jund has terrific day 2 metashares(even if it does not win that easily)?
Infect is running good, because the Control decks are on the decline now. If the meta was more Jund-ish/Controll-ish, the Infect deck could go back to tier 2. Jund is more of a "safe bet" for being best deck, although it is not.
Infect is, by no means, a better deck than Jund. Neither is Jund a better deck than Infect. The meta has no best deck at the moment. It has 5-6 good decks. Plus, everybody believes there is a different "best deck". IMO, Bant Eldrazi may be the best deck in Modern atm. Maybe.
No, that's not even remotely true. The Infect deck can consistently kill on T3-T4 through hand disruption. It wont ever be tier two based on the current card pool. It got even better with a new pump spell in Kaladesh which "does it all" for 2 mana.
Are you referring to larger than life? Because that wont see play in infect
Infect has had 4 top 8's since march, jund has had much more than that, do you think jund needs the axe too?
Infect has put 7 pilots into the top 8s of SCG Opens since March 1st. Jund has placed 6 pilots (see the attached picture) into the top 8s of SCG Opens during the same time frame. Jund has more than twice as many pilots. Infect is, in no uncertain terms, a better deck than Jund.
Really? Is this why Infect has been at times at tier 2? Is that why Jund has +4% meta share? Is this why Jund has terrific day 2 metashares(even if it does not win that easily)?
Infect is running good, because the Control decks are on the decline now. If the meta was more Jund-ish/Controll-ish, the Infect deck could go back to tier 2. Jund is more of a "safe bet" for being best deck, although it is not.
Infect is, by no means, a better deck than Jund. Neither is Jund a better deck than Infect. The meta has no best deck at the moment. It has 5-6 good decks. Plus, everybody believes there is a different "best deck". IMO, Bant Eldrazi may be the best deck in Modern atm. Maybe.
No, that's not even remotely true. The Infect deck can consistently kill on T3-T4 through hand disruption. It wont ever be tier two based on the current card pool. It got even better with a new pump spell in Kaladesh which "does it all" for 2 mana.
Are you referring to larger than life? Because that wont see play in infect
No, I'm talking about Blossoming defenses which will likely be a two of in modern infect lists.
Really? Is this why Infect has been at times at tier 2? Is that why Jund has +4% meta share? Is this why Jund has terrific day 2 metashares(even if it does not win that easily)?
Infect is running good, because the Control decks are on the decline now. If the meta was more Jund-ish/Controll-ish, the Infect deck could go back to tier 2. Jund is more of a "safe bet" for being best deck, although it is not.
Infect is, by no means, a better deck than Jund. Neither is Jund a better deck than Infect. The meta has no best deck at the moment. It has 5-6 good decks. Plus, everybody believes there is a different "best deck". IMO, Bant Eldrazi may be the best deck in Modern atm. Maybe.
No, that's not even remotely true. The Infect deck can consistently kill on T3-T4 through hand disruption. It wont ever be tier two based on the current card pool. It got even better with a new pump spell in Kaladesh which "does it all" for 2 mana.
Are you referring to larger than life? Because that wont see play in infect
No, I'm talking about Blossoming defenses which will likely be a two of in modern infect lists.
This card is an upgrde, though not a strict one and not an auto-include. Ranger's Guile is a card that saw no play at all. I am testing the card and I like it, but its just an alternative and if you want to make room for it you have to take out Groundswell, and either Apostle's Blessing or Vines Of Vastwood. Taking out 1 Dismember leaves the deck more vulnerable to maindeck Meliras/Spellskites, etc. So, again, its a good card, we ll try to make room for it but its not like it will break the format.
But we are in the Banlist Thread. Do you have anything to suggest about any deck? Unban/Ban or something? And numbers/data to back it up please.
I was responding to erroneous information in thread which related to an unban discussion. And sure, Become Immense should not be a modern legal card. 1 mana for +6+6 at instant speed is not a reasonable effect and we've seen that the modern infect deck can play this card at one mana with trivial effort. It's also a trivial effort to play it at one mana in Suicide Zoo.
Infect has put 7 pilots into the top 8s of SCG Opens since March 1st. Jund has placed 6 pilots (see the attached picture) into the top 8s of SCG Opens during the same time frame. Jund has more than twice as many pilots. Infect is, in no uncertain terms, a better deck than Jund.
Really? Is this why Infect has been at times at tier 2? Is that why Jund has +4% meta share? Is this why Jund has terrific day 2 metashares(even if it does not win that easily)?
Infect is running good, because the Control decks are on the decline now. If the meta was more Jund-ish/Controll-ish, the Infect deck could go back to tier 2. Jund is more of a "safe bet" for being best deck, although it is not.
Infect is, by no means, a better deck than Jund. Neither is Jund a better deck than Infect. The meta has no best deck at the moment. It has 5-6 good decks. Plus, everybody believes there is a different "best deck". IMO, Bant Eldrazi may be the best deck in Modern atm. Maybe.
No, that's not even remotely true. The Infect deck can consistently kill on T3-T4 through hand disruption. It wont ever be tier two based on the current card pool. It got even better with a new pump spell in Kaladesh which "does it all" for 2 mana.
Are you referring to larger than life? Because that wont see play in infect
No, I'm talking about Blossoming defenses which will likely be a two of in modern infect lists.
Just to add another thought to the infect discussion
Zooacide is capable of turn three kills, although their creature base is obviously different there is some very common ground in their spell package.
When it boils down to it these decks are simply the modern equivalent of beserk stompy/ pump stompy in legacy.
That being said I think the results of the two should not be looked at in a vacuum separate of each other.
Logic Knot should be banned: having 6 card in the grave by turn 2 is apparently trivial, therefore it's a UU counterspell (and has the upside of being able to dodge Eidolon triggers!)
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"What's your plan?" Gideon asked.
"Are you serious?" Chandra replied.
You obviously did not read what I wrote, because what you ask have been already been answered by me, so go read it again. It's not about Jace. Jace is not coming back for a different reason. This is something I also said. SFM is the problem in WOTC's eyes. Please read more carefully my points next time. I said twice that this is not MY problem, but WOTC's problem.
WOTC does not want Splinter Twin package, because it's reducing diversity and if they do not want that it's natural for anyone to assume that they do not want a similar, and potentially problematic package in the game that has the exact same problems.
I read what you wrote, and you are completely missing the point with the problem WotC had with Twin and diversity. Twin wasn't just 4 cards slotting into URx decks, it was a 10 card package that completely changed the deck into a Twin strategy. SFM would be a 6-7 card package, but it's not fundamentally changing the decks it is going into, it's just another threat to add to their others. Jace would just be 4 cards (if even that many) that just goes into existing blue midrange and control shells and complements what they are already doing. It's not like people would stop playing Bant Eldrazi because Bant Stoneblade or Bant Jace control is just better. That was the problem they had with Twin.
No, because Sam Stoddart states:
"Basically, people are naturally running cards that can interact with that deck, while we don't require that all decks have main deck answers to Storm."
Thus, he assumes/wants most people to run interaction for the game to be interactive and fun. Thus, you would play Mana Leak/Path To Exile and other counters or removals anyways. Snapcaster Mage just makes them better.
That quote is completely out of context and has nothing to do with how they feel about packages slotting into different decks, it's about how they feel about Infect being able to kill on turn 3.
Thanks. That's why I called it a "package". Just like you would not be playing a single Perstermite in your deck, you do not run Swords.
My point in the comparison of SFM to Snapcaster is that there is an opportunity cost to playing SFM. Snapcaster pairs with something you were going to do anyway, so it has a very low opportunity cost. This is not the case with SFM. You weren't going to play equipment without SFM, so playing her with the equipment means you're removing several cards from your deck that you would rather play over the equipment. This is not a trivial cost.
Secondly, if you play SFM and eats a Lightning Bolt you have the 1 off card in your hand that you would have to draw it otherwise. Plus you will have to deal with it finally. Plus he can Inquisition Of Kozilek/Thoughtseize you firstly and take Lightning Bolt/Kolaghan's Command. What does Grixis do then? Fold?
Plus the Abzan deck has Lingering Souls/Tarmogoyf/Liliana Of the veil/Siege Rhino. How can Jeskai Control or Grixis Control deal with them? Especially after a hand disrtuption? Even if you Kolaghan's Command for destroy artifact/2 damage to her, you would lose the discard you would use on him/the returning of your Tasigur/Tarmogoyf. Congtratulations, you got outtempod and you are about to be hit with another, devastating threat(like 4 1/1 fliers, or a Liliana). Good luck with that.
You've already been called out for this line of reasoning multiple times in this thread by other people. 2-for-1s exist in Modern, and that's totally fine. It's not a valid argument to insist against a card because it restores parity against another 2-for-1 card. And don't make it out like Abzan is currently running bad cards in the 2-drop slot. The deck already tries to hit you with haymakers every turn, SFM wouldn't change that strategy. If anything, it would only make it worse because you're wasting tempo on equipment, and if I answer your equipment you have a playset of vanilla 2 mana 1/2s in your deck.
- Want to help mainly Abzan Midrange most, and secondly Jeskai Control/Esper/D&T/other strategies and make Grixis control 0.1% of the meta? Sure, unban Stoneforge Mystic
- Want to make the format more linear? Sure, unban Jace, The Mind Sculptor.
Sorry, but nobody agrees with you on these points. The logic that SFM would make Kommand decks unplayable is laughable. Kommand is the perfect answer card to SFM, so it being legal would only increase the number of Kommands people were playing. Nobody says, "Well, Electrolyze is the only way for me to trade at parity with Lingering Souls, so guess I'm not playing any URx deck since Souls is legal." No, you play more Electrolyzes if you have a lot of Souls in your meta.
And Jace wouldn't make the format more linear. Most people are already trying to race each other even without Jace being legal. If anything, I think him being legal might draw some of the people playing linear aggro decks into trying blue midrange and control again, which would slow the format down. The speed of the format has a lot to do with the perception of where the power in the format is. Right now, the aggro decks are very powerful and have nothing stopping them, and the control decks are very weak. We also have Bant Eldrazi sitting on top of the other midrange and control decks, which is kind of a problem and a big reason why the format became so linear. If some of the power in the format shifts towards blue control so that it was back on top of Eldrazi, some aggro players might switch to the archetype, and the blue decks controlling Eldrazi would free up the GBx decks a little. Jace isn't a direct answer to aggro, but indirectly I think he would slow the format down.
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Modern UBR Grixis Shadow UBR UR Izzet Phoenix UR UW UW Control UW GB GB Rock GB
Commander BG Meren of Clan Nel Toth BG BGUW Atraxa, Praetor's Voice BGUW
- Want to help the format fight off the linear decks, but lower diversity as well. Unban Splinter Twin.
Blue interactive decks were more prevalent as a whole, more diverse, and each separate deck and archetype held a higher metagame percentage before the ban*. Diversity among all individual top decks is about the same now as it was before the ban, but diversity among archetypes is significantly worse than it was before the ban. I agree that unbanning Twin is the best solution to help, because banning it did nothing but hurt blue and hurt the format.
The following is an excerpt from Modern Nexus posted immediately after GP Pittsburg in November of 2015, where there were 3 copies of Twin in the top 8 (highest all year) as well as Jeskai Twin winning (http://modernnexus.com/twins-and-trends-at-gp-pittsburgh/) :
"Given all these linear options, why are most Modern events like Pittsburgh or Charlotte and not like Porto Alegre or Dallas? Thank URx Twin and BGx Midrange. That’s not “URx Twin or BGx Midrange”. It’s “and” because healthy metagames need both decks.
Inquisition of KozilekIt’s almost impossible for the assorted linear decks to punch through a metagame with both Twin and BGx. If you’re too deep on synergy, Thoughtseize and Inquisition of Kozilek will rip you apart. If you’re too light on interaction, an early Remand is guaranteed to keep the Twin player alive until the turn 4-5 combo. And if you’re too reliant on cheap creatures, there’s nothing like a Lightning Bolt to set you back, and there’s nothing like Twin and Jund when it comes to wielding Bolt efficiently. Linear decks can’t deal with these different policing angles and typically crumble over long tournaments. Pittsburgh showcased this effect throughout the weekend, especially in the finals where Jeskai Twin made textbook work of Affinity.
...
If you just look at small-event data, you tend to see more of the goldfish decks bullying their way to the finals. That’s not going to happen at a tournament where both Twin and Jund show up in force (or Abzan, depending on the BGx police flavor of the month). Of course, the second breakdown scenario is where one (or both) of the decks are absent. No Twin? Get ready for Affinity and Amulet to run over everything in sight. No BGx? Honesty, i can’t think of a time when there was no BGx at all, but I know that an absence of Jund sees big increases in Infect and other small-critter-based aggro.
At Pittsburgh, we saw both decks which is why the event was so healthy and such a return to old-school Modern. This is a critical observation because it shows us situations where the metagame can be broken (relatively speaking) and then self-correct just a month later. That’s important if you are playing (prepare for the correction or jump on board a policing deck), speculating (don’t play the long-game on spending on linear decks that might be here today and gone tomorrow), investing (Twin and BGx only go up because they are always here), or just trying to understand the format (we’ll always come back to these two decks no matter where the format is at any given moment). Pittsburgh should have been a faith-restoring event for all Modern players, and I am optimistic that we can keep seeing these forces in more events to come."
No, that's not even remotely true. The Infect deck can consistently kill on T3-T4 through hand disruption. It wont ever be tier two based on the current card pool. It got even better with a new pump spell in Kaladesh which "does it all" for 2 mana.
I was responding to erroneous information in thread which related to an unban discussion. And sure, Become Immense should not be a modern legal card. 1 mana for +6+6 at instant speed is not a reasonable effect and we've seen that the modern infect deck can play this card at one mana with trivial effort. It's also a trivial effort to play it at one mana in Suicide Zoo.
You clearly have never played with the deck yourself. Infect folds to a single discard much more often than "consistently killing turn 3-4" afterwards. Infect has also been relegated to tier 2 throughout this year, with exactly the same card pool.
Casting BE with trivial effort is also not true. You need a combination of fetches/probes/pumps/dead creatures etc, 5 cards is not trivial. Not to mention that having 2 Become Immense in hand makes both the task of filling the GY and subsequently casting the second one alot harder, drawing a third one is mostly a catastrophy except in long games. Death's Shadow is a different case, but that deck is filled with probably all the 0 cc re-draws available in modern.
Blossoming Defence is solid but I don't see where it'll slot in at the moment. If your meta has alot of interactive decks then it is a good choice, but in any case, it mostly adds to the resilience and not the explosiveness everyone is complaining about.
And Jace wouldn't make the format more linear. Most people are already trying to race each other even without Jace being legal. If anything, I think him being legal might draw some of the people playing linear aggro decks into trying blue midrange and control again, which would slow the format down. The speed of the format has a lot to do with the perception of where the power in the format is. Right now, the aggro decks are very powerful and have nothing stopping them, and the control decks are very weak. We also have Bant Eldrazi sitting on top of the other midrange and control decks, which is kind of a problem and a big reason why the format became so linear. If some of the power in the format shifts towards blue control so that it was back on top of Eldrazi, some aggro players might switch to the archetype, and the blue decks controlling Eldrazi would free up the GBx decks a little. Jace isn't a direct answer to aggro, but indirectly I think he would slow the format down.
Your guess at how the playerbase would react assumes that people want to be playing blue, but are right now playing linear decks. Whether this is true or not is divorced from the idea that Jace, The Mind Sculptor is a card best answered by trying to kill the opponent before it becomes relevant. So while the playerbase is free at any time to eschew their linear aggro decks, it's pure conjecture to suggest that there would be a notable increase in blue decks with Jace available - especially considering that the (consensus) best strategy to beat Jace is to stick to those linear decks.
I don't think we should value conjecture on how the playerbase might react as highly as easily identifiable real-game consequences of Jace being played.
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Modern Decks
KnightfallGWUR
Azorius Control UW
Burn RBG
Here's the summary if you can't get through the entire piece:
Quote from "David Ernenwein" »
So what does all this mean? If my results accurately model real Modern, then it is fair to say that Stoneforge Mystic would not have an absolutely warping effect on the metagame. It is a powerful card but not truly degenerate, and it ultimately advantages fair midrange decks against aggressive decks.
...
As a result, I would expect that in the wake of Stoneforge Mystic being unbanned there would in fact be a decrease in the total number of aggressive decks in Modern as Merfolk, Zoo, and Burn take a hit. This would slow things down as more players try slower decks with Mystic. However, after the initial slowdown, the format would accelerate as players notice that unfair decks aren’t affected. This will push players to play more Infect, Affinity, and combo decks and the aggro players will try to incorporate more unfair elements to fight back against Batterskull.
There is also the effect on other midrange decks to consider. The Jeskai results suggest that those decks that play Mystic will have an advantage over those that don’t. I suspect that had the Mystic deck run Painful Truths, Abzan would have been more strongly favored. The fact that Mystic still pushed it over Jeskai suggests that it would drive the format towards greater homogeneity. If you have to play Stoneforge to win, that does limit your deckbuilding options.
...
Based on the results of my testing Stoneforge Mystic in Junk Abzan I recommend against unbanning. My results partially prove the hypothesis true, but analysis of the impact suggests that over the long term it will have the opposite effect.
Hopefully this elevates the discussion around SFM through an injection of badly-needed data.
@WraithPK I prefer to focus on the Infect talk we have under way, rather to answer to your stupid "Sorry, but nobody agrees with you on these points." Those are the kind of lines that made poor Bill have enough of it. I am really really sorry for this unrespectful line.
You have your views, and I have mine. You seem to ask the same questions I already answered you. Literally if you re-read my text, all of your points will be answered.
On top of that, you are acting like I do not wish SFM to enter the format. I'm merely playing Devil's Advocate and you just can't answer to all of my points.
Cheers!
I've answered all your points, and you keep coming up with nonsensical arguments. Explain to me why it's a problem that Kommand decks "lose value," as you seem to think, when they kill a SFM and shatter the Batterskull. It's not lost value, it's an even trade, and the Kommand deck even comes out ahead on tempo by answering 4 mana with 3 mana. This is the argument you keep bringing up to argue against SFM (even if you think you're playing Devil's Advocate), but it doesn't hold water. And it doesn't make sense to say that with SFM, the Kommand deck loses value because they can't make you discard or regrow their Tasigur. That's like saying I lose value on my Lightning Bolt when I bolt your Bob because now I can't point it at your face.
I'm just waiting to hear an actual valid argument from you against SFM in Modern. I've actually done the testing, as you keep asking people to do in the case of Infect, and in my testing the card has been completely fine.
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I'm just waiting to hear an actual valid argument from you against SFM in Modern. I've actually done the testing, as you keep asking people to do in the case of Infect, and in my testing the card has been completely fine.
I just posted an article above which adds some hard data to the question in a very publicly accessible and auditable form. How do you respond to the author's conclusions?
The Modern Nexus article confirms the most intuitive ramifications of an SFM unban:
1) any creature deck, aggro or midrange, will face a new threat of the top order in the format. If you can't play past a 4/4 lifelinker on turn 3, you would lose some % against stoneblade decks.
2) with respect to number 1, unfair decks don't care.
Given that most people identify a problem with too many unfair decks in the format (I'm not endorsing that diagnosis), SFM is not an appropriate prescription.
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KnightfallGWUR
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I think the deck is tier 0.5 atm and very borderline.
For me some cards deserve à ban...
Eldrazi creatures are already pure power engines. Each of them add huge value and have relevant body.
It's almost impossible to have a positive trade vs eldrazi. Cards like smasher are already a card advantage win as soon as the card hit the board. 5/5 haste trample is huge, add the discard effect and you are at 2 for 1... Same as tks or displacer. They Can win games alone.
Now add the temple for free ramp, and the broken ancien stirring with cavern of souls and some counterspell and you have a deck which is very consistent and impossible to trade with...
Banning eldrazi temple Will allow many decks to breath a little bit...
Ho and to talk about infect.
Infect has two things that let it in the check list.
Variance and counters.
While infect Can win the game fast, in some case the deck trolls you and you cant do anything.
And many modern decks play removal or just, you know, creatures.
Exept for the agent, you Can easily chump block infect creatures, or just look them. (You know, abrupt decay, terminate, path, modern things ). Or just blocks. You Can also disrupt the pump spells or counters them.
It's far more easy to win vs infect when you play à fair deck than decks like ad nauseam.
Imo, the deck is heavily played because he's a "cheap" t1 deck (no tarmo or lilly) and he's easy to play and understand. Playing very fast decks prevent you to makes huge mistakes and while i admit infect is not THAT easy to play, it's still easier than any grindy mid range decks.
No bans and unbans is probably the best outcome for the players that want a format where they just want to play their deck. I believe WOTC is catering to this group based on this announcement and not the extremely vocal pros. Maybe there were no bannings this time around because of the World Magic Cup with Team Unified Modern coming up. There would probably be a huge backlash from the participating countries if WOTC rocked the boat this time with bannings. The B/R announcement after Aether Revolt should paint a clearer picture of whether or not WOTC feels there is a problem with the format.
I'm just waiting to hear an actual valid argument from you against SFM in Modern. I've actually done the testing, as you keep asking people to do in the case of Infect, and in my testing the card has been completely fine.
I just posted an article above which adds some hard data to the question in a very publicly accessible and auditable form. How do you respond to the author's conclusions?
Sorry, I just got home from work. To put it bluntly, he can't draw the conclusions he infers at the end by his data. At all. My degree is in Physics and I have done a lot of work in labs and doing research, and a write up like this would not pass peer review. I'll do a longer review of why I'm saying that, but it'll take me a bit. To give a quick TL;DR before I even write it, the only valid conclusion he can draw from his data is that Abzan has a better game 1 matchup against Burn with SFM. Everything else was not statistically significant. But I know you have a background in statistics, so I assume you spotted that even before I did.
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Modern UBR Grixis Shadow UBR UR Izzet Phoenix UR UW UW Control UW GB GB Rock GB
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RG 8-Whack
BWG Abzan midrange
GRB Living End
UWB Spirit Control
GU Kruphix's "Hug Assassin"
RW Kalemne's "Play Fatties and Hope for the Best!"
BUGW Atraxa's "All counters, all the time"
The problem with this logic is currently like every fair deck can be classified like this, since fair decks are just piles of the best cards, not individually weak cards made strong through synergy. Like, we currently have jund goyf, abzan goyf, temur goyf, jeskai nahiri, mardu nahiri, grixis snapcaster, jeskai snapcaster, esper snapcaster, etc. Should we ban those cards too?
UWRjeskai nahiri UWR
UBRgrixis titi UBR
UBRgrixis delverUBR
UR ur kikimite UR
EDH
RUG Riku of Two Reflections RUG
UBR Marchesa, the Black Rose UBR
UBRGYidris, Maelstrom Wielder UBRG
UBRJeleva, Nephalia's ScourgeUBR
What events are included here? PTs and GPs only? Or also SCG Opens?
Do we call it Jund Liliana, Abzan Liliana, or Mardu Liliana? No. Nobody has a problem with all the black midrange decks playing Liliana, why do you have a problem with blue midrange and control decks potentially playing Jace? How are these two things any different?
SFM + equipment is a "package," but Snapcaster + instants and sorceries isn't? At least with Snapcaster, he's synergizing with something you would be doing anyway. There's a reason nobody plays equipment in Modern. SFM just makes equipment playable, but if she dies before you get to untap with her, you're sitting there with a 5 mana equipment in your hand that you might die before you can even cast. And even when you do cast it, there's a good chance it won't be enough to save you. And I don't think a deck could get away with SFM as their only wincon, Jund would be an unwinnable matchup if you did. In my testing of SFM, I never got to untap with one against Jund in like 15 games played. Even in games where I got to just hard cast the Batterskull, it usually wasn't good enough by itself. You're trying to play a 5 mana 4/4 Vigilance Lifelink while your opponent is playing 2 mana 6/7s.
UBR Grixis Shadow UBR
UR Izzet Phoenix UR
UW UW Control UW
GB GB Rock GB
Commander
BG Meren of Clan Nel Toth BG
BGUW Atraxa, Praetor's Voice BGUW
Standard: lol no
Modern: BG/x, UR/x, Burn, Merfolk, Zoo, Storm
Legacy: Shardless BUG, Delver (BUG, RUG, Grixis), Landstill, Depths Combo, Merfolk
Vintage: Dark Times, BUG Fish, Merfolk
EDH: Teysa, Orzhov Scion / Krenko, Mob Boss / Stonebrow, Krosan Hero
Those decks would have Sphinx's revelation and cryptic as anti-Jund trump cards, and probably be able to get there. I'm not 100% sure Esper/UW control would want a win package that takes up so many slots though it is nice for it to be so mana efficient.
Typically a UW control or Esper control deck will run 3-4 colonnades and then 2-4 planeswalkers as wincons, and while that is a lot denser than 6-7 card stoneforge package, the Stoneforge package has the benefit of being a lot better from a tempo perspective (letting you play at instant speed more and also requiring less up front mana investment).
I always felt it was rough to have to tap out for Elspeth or Gideon in my UW control deck and would definitely try out SFM.
But would it be busted? Eh. Those decks already beat Jund handily. Ask any Jund player what his win rate is against Esper control, it's probably like 30-40% at best.
The concern would be whether SFM gives control decks too much of an edge vs. aggro or big mana, and I doubt that is the case.
The other potential for concern is whether SFM decks dominate in non-control midrange brawls, and I think we've seen plenty in legacy to say that they likely do not -- SFM is good in midrange grinds, but it doesn't keep Jund and Merfolk from being really difficult matchups.
UW Ephara Hatebears [Primer], GB Gitrog Lands, BRU Inalla Combo-Control, URG Maelstrom Wanderer Landfall
People "travel" to SCGs but not even remotely close to the way they do for GPs. The level of competition between SCGs and GPs are ENORMOUSLY different. You may have played in each of them, but if you were oblivious to the differences then you're probably not accustomed to higher level play and/or not at the winning tables.
Standard: lol no
Modern: BG/x, UR/x, Burn, Merfolk, Zoo, Storm
Legacy: Shardless BUG, Delver (BUG, RUG, Grixis), Landstill, Depths Combo, Merfolk
Vintage: Dark Times, BUG Fish, Merfolk
EDH: Teysa, Orzhov Scion / Krenko, Mob Boss / Stonebrow, Krosan Hero
Pt ogw, gp la, gp indy, scg opens, and a youtube series by owen turtenwald
UWRjeskai nahiri UWR
UBRgrixis titi UBR
UBRgrixis delverUBR
UR ur kikimite UR
EDH
RUG Riku of Two Reflections RUG
UBR Marchesa, the Black Rose UBR
UBRGYidris, Maelstrom Wielder UBRG
UBRJeleva, Nephalia's ScourgeUBR
No, that's not even remotely true. The Infect deck can consistently kill on T3-T4 through hand disruption. It wont ever be tier two based on the current card pool. It got even better with a new pump spell in Kaladesh which "does it all" for 2 mana.
Are you referring to larger than life? Because that wont see play in infect
UWRjeskai nahiri UWR
UBRgrixis titi UBR
UBRgrixis delverUBR
UR ur kikimite UR
EDH
RUG Riku of Two Reflections RUG
UBR Marchesa, the Black Rose UBR
UBRGYidris, Maelstrom Wielder UBRG
UBRJeleva, Nephalia's ScourgeUBR
I was responding to erroneous information in thread which related to an unban discussion. And sure, Become Immense should not be a modern legal card. 1 mana for +6+6 at instant speed is not a reasonable effect and we've seen that the modern infect deck can play this card at one mana with trivial effort. It's also a trivial effort to play it at one mana in Suicide Zoo.
Just to add another thought to the infect discussion
Zooacide is capable of turn three kills, although their creature base is obviously different there is some very common ground in their spell package.
When it boils down to it these decks are simply the modern equivalent of beserk stompy/ pump stompy in legacy.
That being said I think the results of the two should not be looked at in a vacuum separate of each other.
"Are you serious?" Chandra replied.
I read what you wrote, and you are completely missing the point with the problem WotC had with Twin and diversity. Twin wasn't just 4 cards slotting into URx decks, it was a 10 card package that completely changed the deck into a Twin strategy. SFM would be a 6-7 card package, but it's not fundamentally changing the decks it is going into, it's just another threat to add to their others. Jace would just be 4 cards (if even that many) that just goes into existing blue midrange and control shells and complements what they are already doing. It's not like people would stop playing Bant Eldrazi because Bant Stoneblade or Bant Jace control is just better. That was the problem they had with Twin.
That quote is completely out of context and has nothing to do with how they feel about packages slotting into different decks, it's about how they feel about Infect being able to kill on turn 3.
My point in the comparison of SFM to Snapcaster is that there is an opportunity cost to playing SFM. Snapcaster pairs with something you were going to do anyway, so it has a very low opportunity cost. This is not the case with SFM. You weren't going to play equipment without SFM, so playing her with the equipment means you're removing several cards from your deck that you would rather play over the equipment. This is not a trivial cost.
You've already been called out for this line of reasoning multiple times in this thread by other people. 2-for-1s exist in Modern, and that's totally fine. It's not a valid argument to insist against a card because it restores parity against another 2-for-1 card. And don't make it out like Abzan is currently running bad cards in the 2-drop slot. The deck already tries to hit you with haymakers every turn, SFM wouldn't change that strategy. If anything, it would only make it worse because you're wasting tempo on equipment, and if I answer your equipment you have a playset of vanilla 2 mana 1/2s in your deck.
Sorry, but nobody agrees with you on these points. The logic that SFM would make Kommand decks unplayable is laughable. Kommand is the perfect answer card to SFM, so it being legal would only increase the number of Kommands people were playing. Nobody says, "Well, Electrolyze is the only way for me to trade at parity with Lingering Souls, so guess I'm not playing any URx deck since Souls is legal." No, you play more Electrolyzes if you have a lot of Souls in your meta.
And Jace wouldn't make the format more linear. Most people are already trying to race each other even without Jace being legal. If anything, I think him being legal might draw some of the people playing linear aggro decks into trying blue midrange and control again, which would slow the format down. The speed of the format has a lot to do with the perception of where the power in the format is. Right now, the aggro decks are very powerful and have nothing stopping them, and the control decks are very weak. We also have Bant Eldrazi sitting on top of the other midrange and control decks, which is kind of a problem and a big reason why the format became so linear. If some of the power in the format shifts towards blue control so that it was back on top of Eldrazi, some aggro players might switch to the archetype, and the blue decks controlling Eldrazi would free up the GBx decks a little. Jace isn't a direct answer to aggro, but indirectly I think he would slow the format down.
UBR Grixis Shadow UBR
UR Izzet Phoenix UR
UW UW Control UW
GB GB Rock GB
Commander
BG Meren of Clan Nel Toth BG
BGUW Atraxa, Praetor's Voice BGUW
Blue interactive decks were more prevalent as a whole, more diverse, and each separate deck and archetype held a higher metagame percentage before the ban*. Diversity among all individual top decks is about the same now as it was before the ban, but diversity among archetypes is significantly worse than it was before the ban. I agree that unbanning Twin is the best solution to help, because banning it did nothing but hurt blue and hurt the format.
The following is an excerpt from Modern Nexus posted immediately after GP Pittsburg in November of 2015, where there were 3 copies of Twin in the top 8 (highest all year) as well as Jeskai Twin winning (http://modernnexus.com/twins-and-trends-at-gp-pittsburgh/) :
"Given all these linear options, why are most Modern events like Pittsburgh or Charlotte and not like Porto Alegre or Dallas? Thank URx Twin and BGx Midrange. That’s not “URx Twin or BGx Midrange”. It’s “and” because healthy metagames need both decks.
Inquisition of KozilekIt’s almost impossible for the assorted linear decks to punch through a metagame with both Twin and BGx. If you’re too deep on synergy, Thoughtseize and Inquisition of Kozilek will rip you apart. If you’re too light on interaction, an early Remand is guaranteed to keep the Twin player alive until the turn 4-5 combo. And if you’re too reliant on cheap creatures, there’s nothing like a Lightning Bolt to set you back, and there’s nothing like Twin and Jund when it comes to wielding Bolt efficiently. Linear decks can’t deal with these different policing angles and typically crumble over long tournaments. Pittsburgh showcased this effect throughout the weekend, especially in the finals where Jeskai Twin made textbook work of Affinity.
...
If you just look at small-event data, you tend to see more of the goldfish decks bullying their way to the finals. That’s not going to happen at a tournament where both Twin and Jund show up in force (or Abzan, depending on the BGx police flavor of the month). Of course, the second breakdown scenario is where one (or both) of the decks are absent. No Twin? Get ready for Affinity and Amulet to run over everything in sight. No BGx? Honesty, i can’t think of a time when there was no BGx at all, but I know that an absence of Jund sees big increases in Infect and other small-critter-based aggro.
At Pittsburgh, we saw both decks which is why the event was so healthy and such a return to old-school Modern. This is a critical observation because it shows us situations where the metagame can be broken (relatively speaking) and then self-correct just a month later. That’s important if you are playing (prepare for the correction or jump on board a policing deck), speculating (don’t play the long-game on spending on linear decks that might be here today and gone tomorrow), investing (Twin and BGx only go up because they are always here), or just trying to understand the format (we’ll always come back to these two decks no matter where the format is at any given moment). Pittsburgh should have been a faith-restoring event for all Modern players, and I am optimistic that we can keep seeing these forces in more events to come."
Twin was banned a month and a half later.
UR ....... WUBR ........... WB ............. RGW ........ UBR ....... WUB .... BGU
Spells / Blink & Combo / Token Grind / Dino Tribal / Draw Cards / Zombies / Reanimate
You clearly have never played with the deck yourself. Infect folds to a single discard much more often than "consistently killing turn 3-4" afterwards. Infect has also been relegated to tier 2 throughout this year, with exactly the same card pool.
Casting BE with trivial effort is also not true. You need a combination of fetches/probes/pumps/dead creatures etc, 5 cards is not trivial. Not to mention that having 2 Become Immense in hand makes both the task of filling the GY and subsequently casting the second one alot harder, drawing a third one is mostly a catastrophy except in long games. Death's Shadow is a different case, but that deck is filled with probably all the 0 cc re-draws available in modern.
Blossoming Defence is solid but I don't see where it'll slot in at the moment. If your meta has alot of interactive decks then it is a good choice, but in any case, it mostly adds to the resilience and not the explosiveness everyone is complaining about.
I don't think we should value conjecture on how the playerbase might react as highly as easily identifiable real-game consequences of Jace being played.
KnightfallGWUR
Azorius Control UW
Burn RBG
http://modernnexus.com/testing-stoneforge-mystic-part-two/
Here's the summary if you can't get through the entire piece:
Hopefully this elevates the discussion around SFM through an injection of badly-needed data.
I've answered all your points, and you keep coming up with nonsensical arguments. Explain to me why it's a problem that Kommand decks "lose value," as you seem to think, when they kill a SFM and shatter the Batterskull. It's not lost value, it's an even trade, and the Kommand deck even comes out ahead on tempo by answering 4 mana with 3 mana. This is the argument you keep bringing up to argue against SFM (even if you think you're playing Devil's Advocate), but it doesn't hold water. And it doesn't make sense to say that with SFM, the Kommand deck loses value because they can't make you discard or regrow their Tasigur. That's like saying I lose value on my Lightning Bolt when I bolt your Bob because now I can't point it at your face.
I'm just waiting to hear an actual valid argument from you against SFM in Modern. I've actually done the testing, as you keep asking people to do in the case of Infect, and in my testing the card has been completely fine.
UBR Grixis Shadow UBR
UR Izzet Phoenix UR
UW UW Control UW
GB GB Rock GB
Commander
BG Meren of Clan Nel Toth BG
BGUW Atraxa, Praetor's Voice BGUW
I just posted an article above which adds some hard data to the question in a very publicly accessible and auditable form. How do you respond to the author's conclusions?
1) any creature deck, aggro or midrange, will face a new threat of the top order in the format. If you can't play past a 4/4 lifelinker on turn 3, you would lose some % against stoneblade decks.
2) with respect to number 1, unfair decks don't care.
Given that most people identify a problem with too many unfair decks in the format (I'm not endorsing that diagnosis), SFM is not an appropriate prescription.
KnightfallGWUR
Azorius Control UW
Burn RBG
I think the deck is tier 0.5 atm and very borderline.
For me some cards deserve à ban...
Eldrazi creatures are already pure power engines. Each of them add huge value and have relevant body.
It's almost impossible to have a positive trade vs eldrazi. Cards like smasher are already a card advantage win as soon as the card hit the board. 5/5 haste trample is huge, add the discard effect and you are at 2 for 1... Same as tks or displacer. They Can win games alone.
Now add the temple for free ramp, and the broken ancien stirring with cavern of souls and some counterspell and you have a deck which is very consistent and impossible to trade with...
Banning eldrazi temple Will allow many decks to breath a little bit...
Ho and to talk about infect.
Infect has two things that let it in the check list.
Variance and counters.
While infect Can win the game fast, in some case the deck trolls you and you cant do anything.
And many modern decks play removal or just, you know, creatures.
Exept for the agent, you Can easily chump block infect creatures, or just look them. (You know, abrupt decay, terminate, path, modern things ). Or just blocks. You Can also disrupt the pump spells or counters them.
It's far more easy to win vs infect when you play à fair deck than decks like ad nauseam.
Imo, the deck is heavily played because he's a "cheap" t1 deck (no tarmo or lilly) and he's easy to play and understand. Playing very fast decks prevent you to makes huge mistakes and while i admit infect is not THAT easy to play, it's still easier than any grindy mid range decks.
Sorry, I just got home from work. To put it bluntly, he can't draw the conclusions he infers at the end by his data. At all. My degree is in Physics and I have done a lot of work in labs and doing research, and a write up like this would not pass peer review. I'll do a longer review of why I'm saying that, but it'll take me a bit. To give a quick TL;DR before I even write it, the only valid conclusion he can draw from his data is that Abzan has a better game 1 matchup against Burn with SFM. Everything else was not statistically significant. But I know you have a background in statistics, so I assume you spotted that even before I did.
UBR Grixis Shadow UBR
UR Izzet Phoenix UR
UW UW Control UW
GB GB Rock GB
Commander
BG Meren of Clan Nel Toth BG
BGUW Atraxa, Praetor's Voice BGUW