I'll need to finish crunching all the numbers to be sure, but just doing some back-of-the-napkin math from the various Top 8s and Day 2s, Modern is looking very linear. Lots of Affinity, Burn, Infect, Death's Shadow, and Valakut. No Jeskai to speak of, very few blue decks overall despite Grixis Delver winning Guangzhou and UW Control getting T8 at Lille, and some Jund but nothing amazing given their Day 2 to Top 8/16 conversion numbers. Overall, it's not my favorite situation for Modern and things appear to have regressed some since the last Grand Prix weekend.
I'm not sure how this plays out from a banlist perspective because the previous GP weekend wasn't this bad. My guess is Wizards will process this and wait and see what to do in January or April.
I'll need to finish crunching all the numbers to be sure, but just doing some back-of-the-napkin math from the various Top 8s and Day 2s, Modern is looking very linear. Lots of Affinity, Burn, Infect, Death's Shadow, and Valakut. No Jeskai to speak of, very few blue decks overall despite Grixis Delver winning Guangzhou and UW Control getting T8 at Lille, and some Jund but nothing amazing given their Day 2 to Top 8/16 conversion numbers. Overall, it's not my favorite situation for Modern and things appear to have regressed some since the last Grand Prix weekend.
I'm not sure how this plays out from a banlist perspective because the previous GP weekend wasn't this bad. My guess is Wizards will process this and wait and see what to do in January or April.
Im not against a twin unban, but I think there's more to it than that.
I'll need to finish crunching all the numbers to be sure, but just doing some back-of-the-napkin math from the various Top 8s and Day 2s, Modern is looking very linear. Lots of Affinity, Burn, Infect, Death's Shadow, and Valakut. No Jeskai to speak of, very few blue decks overall despite Grixis Delver winning Guangzhou and UW Control getting T8 at Lille, and some Jund but nothing amazing given their Day 2 to Top 8/16 conversion numbers. Overall, it's not my favorite situation for Modern and things appear to have regressed some since the last Grand Prix weekend.
I'm not sure how this plays out from a banlist perspective because the previous GP weekend wasn't this bad. My guess is Wizards will process this and wait and see what to do in January or April.
shocking! i thought you'd have changed your mind by now!
just checked the Top8s myself not remotely as bad as i thought they'd be from posts like this, so we have:
we also have another 2 GPs which are awsome but you prefer to pretend they never happened and a number of SCG opens which were all awsome as well
so pretty much everything is normal, meta is a bit more linear the whiners by trade are doing what they're good at with cfusion's rants (now fully visualized) spearheading the assualt, for a moment i thought i'd see something totally terrible but no, just 2 good Top8s and a bad one...
The top 16s and top 32s are more important in aggregate than just top8s. The top16s and top32s in aggregate (apparently) are far less pretty than just the top8s.
so pretty much everything is normal, meta is a bit more linear the whiners by trade are doing what they're good at with cfusion's rants (now fully visualized) spearheading the assualt, for a moment i thought i'd see something totally terrible but no, just 2 good Top8s and a bad one...
Yeah, it's not that bad overall, but it's also not where I wanted to see it evolve since the spring. Death's Shadow Zoo in particular is the kind of deck which should make format watchdogs worried in the long-term. In particular, I'm nervous that the GP Indy results will receive more coverage and notice than the others, shifting the format more heavily to linear options instead of stuff like Grixis or Jeskai Thing. I'm similarly nervous that the big dogs at Indy are more proven and reliable options than upstart Tier 2-3 players like Jeskai Thing, Delver, and UW Control. Finally, I do NOT like those Top 16s/32s, although I know they get less weight than the Top 8s. All of that has me cautious but not outright worried for the next few months, and none of it moves me to consider unbans or bans yet. I hope Wizards feels similarly.
so pretty much everything is normal, meta is a bit more linear the whiners by trade are doing what they're good at with cfusion's rants (now fully visualized) spearheading the assualt, for a moment i thought i'd see something totally terrible but no, just 2 good Top8s and a bad one...
Yeah, it's not that bad overall, but it's also not where I wanted to see it evolve since the spring. Death's Shadow Zoo in particular is the kind of deck which should make format watchdogs worried in the long-term. In particular, I'm nervous that the GP Indy results will receive more coverage and notice than the others, shifting the format more heavily to linear options instead of stuff like Grixis or Jeskai Thing. I'm similarly nervous that the big dogs at Indy are more proven and reliable options than upstart Tier 2-3 players like Jeskai Thing, Delver, and UW Control. Finally, I do NOT like those Top 16s/32s, although I know they get less weight than the Top 8s. All of that has me cautious but not outright worried for the next few months, and none of it moves me to consider unbans or bans yet. I hope Wizards feels similarly.
Maybe they setup the Modern GP schedules like this on purpose. That way they really don't have to react to anything unless it is a clear problem across all events and they receive tons of negative feedback all at once. If we're given a slow trickle of events throughout the year and people complain every single one, they would be more pressured into making changes. This way, as long as they're not all catastrophic failures, they can point to parts of one of them and say "See? Things are fine." Maybe I'm giving Wizards too much credit on this.
No Dredge is goddamn spectacular. I thought it would give a better showing but people were definitely prepared for it (and now I don't have to sell my deck).
I really didn't expect cfusion to say 'unban Twin' again.
No Dredge is goddamn spectacular. I thought it would give a better showing but people were definitely prepared for it (and now I don't have to sell my deck).
I really didn't expect cfusion to say 'unban Twin' again.
At this point I just accept being the meme. LOL. Honestly though, once I stopped trying to play that horridly boring Nahiri deck, I have been greatly enjoying Grixis Delver/Control. Would I play Twin immediately if unbanned? Sure. Is it an absolute #1 priority? Probably not. But I do think many people greatly underestimated the impact removing it would have on the format.
I really enjoyed the GP and I wish the other 2 GP's were live as well. I think the format is looking good on diversity, you can really play all that you want.
Well sort of. You can do well if:
A) You can kill your opponent faster than they can kill you.
B) You can kill your opponent through the hate they bring in against you.
- B.1) Your opponent never draws their hate.
C) Your opponent has no idea what you're doing.
- C.1) Your opponent doesn't sideboard properly.
- C.2) Your opponent doesn't have good or proper cards to deal with you at all.
D) You get really lucky with dice rolls, draws, matchups, mulligans, and variance.
This kind of seems to be where Modern is at right now.
After watching the gp/seeing the top 32's, im even more convinced we should unban sfm
if the complaint is that the format is too linear and not interactive enough then sfm is one of the worst possible unban targets. All it does is give interactive decks a way to play past their opponents. The fix to uninteractivity is more interactivity, not less.
I really enjoyed the GP and I wish the other 2 GP's were live as well. I think the format is looking good on diversity, you can really play all that you want.
Blue based control decks may be on a bit of a downfall. At this point I would be fine by BBE + a blue card being unbanned. Of Course Preordain will further help control decks like Grishoalbrand or Ad Nauseam, and then blue mages will be asking for Jace, so a couple of new prints would be awesome.
Edit: I think we can now start talking about Jace, The Mind Sculptor. This does not mean I want it unban. Just have a talk about it(even if we had already one after Niall started the conversation)
Jace doesn't solve the linearity problem, it only further helps blue be grindy, which it doesn't need help with.
I would actually be totally cool with ad nauseam getting powered up, its a combo deck, an endangered species in modern, that doesn't win before t4
We both know preordain is not enough for Jeskai or Grixis to become a thing again. Diversity and too many angles of attack is killing those decks and they need a more reliable win con just like Twin was or better catch all answers that are not coming through because they have to pass through type 2 first. We can not really wait a Counterspell kind of effect to go through type 2.
I actually disgree about the second part of the statement. Aside from force of will, the biggest difference between fair legacy decks and modern decks is good card selection. When your card selection is good, you find the answers you need more frequently and are more likely to draw your sideboard cards. The answers in modern are fine, finding them on time can be tricky. Other than force, what generic answers are in legacy that aren't in modern? Swords? We have path. Flusterstorm? Wouldn't even be that Good in modern and there isn't much need to hose storm more. Other than that, Abrupt decay, mana leak, k command and bolt are all great catch alls to name a few.
On the other hand, i agree that Preordain isnt enough to create sustainable t1 jeskai/grixis, although i believe driver would put up a Serious fight. But if we arent getting counterspell/innocent blood/swords to plowshares, we gotta ask for what we can get
I really enjoyed the GP and I wish the other 2 GP's were live as well. I think the format is looking good on diversity, you can really play all that you want.
Well sort of. You can do well if:
A) You can kill your opponent faster than they can kill you.
B) You can kill your opponent through the hate they bring in against you.
- B.1) Your opponent never draws their hate.
C) Your opponent has no idea what you're doing.
- C.1) Your opponent doesn't sideboard properly.
- C.2) Your opponent doesn't have good or proper cards to deal with you at all.
D) You get really lucky with dice rolls, draws, matchups, mulligans, and variance.
This kind of seems to be where Modern is at right now.
That's where Modern has always been though. Lets not kid ourselves here that Modern was any different than this at any point.
Id go ahead and say thats how MAGIC has always been. He basically said, if your deck is good and executes its gameplan, and your opponent's gameplan doesnt directly counter yours/win faster than yours, you win. Last i checked, thats how 99% of magics games ever have happened
This is the big problem with unbans, and furthermore the reason why right now unbans are not the answer to linear issues.
I have to give credit to WOTC, right now the banlist seems fine, the only card that COULD come off would be BBE and it's really not necesary because of what i just said, no fixing whatsoever of linearity.
Let's face it, the cards that one could consider a hit for linear strategies would be:Splinter Twin, SFM,some cantrip?(that one is risky it could cause more problems), DTT and that's it. All those tools just make the format more homogene, no diversity and a real possible push for the midrange decks of the format out of it.
Bans are more considerable. Some pro's suggested Nacatl, Becomme Immense, Gitaxian Probe.
I think, ultimately, a new card has to enter the format via printing not banlist managing. They have managed the banlist pretty well this far.
They have to think of a way to stop linear decks in their second biggest constructed format some way or another.
I really enjoyed the GP and I wish the other 2 GP's were live as well. I think the format is looking good on diversity, you can really play all that you want.
Well sort of. You can do well if:
A) You can kill your opponent faster than they can kill you.
B) You can kill your opponent through the hate they bring in against you.
- B.1) Your opponent never draws their hate.
C) Your opponent has no idea what you're doing.
- C.1) Your opponent doesn't sideboard properly.
- C.2) Your opponent doesn't have good or proper cards to deal with you at all.
D) You get really lucky with dice rolls, draws, matchups, mulligans, and variance.
This kind of seems to be where Modern is at right now.
And when Twin was legal, you could do well if:
A) You can kill your opponent faster than they can kill you.
B) You can kill your opponent through the hate they bring in against you.
- B.1) Your opponent never draws their hate.
C) Your opponent has no idea what you're doing.
- C.1) Your opponent doesn't sideboard properly.
- C.2) Your opponent doesn't have good or proper cards to deal with you at all.
D) You get really lucky with dice rolls, draws, matchups, mulligans, and variance.
Funny... those lists look really similar...
Private Mod Note
():
Rollback Post to RevisionRollBack
Level 1 Judge
"I hope to have such a death... lying in triumph atop the broken bodies of those who slew me..."
You don't call "dying to removal" if the removal is more expensive in resources than the creature. If you have to spend BG (Abrupt Decay), or W + basic land (PtE) to remove a 1G, that is not "dying to removal". Strictly speaking Goyf dies to removal, but actually your removal is dying to Goyf.
Twin is not the answer. Unbanning it would be a huge mistake. Banning twin simply shined a light on the problems that the format has always had. Now that they're obvious we finally get a shot at fixing them instead of just sweeping them under the rug, which is all that twin ever did.
I agree. People tend to forget how much were we arguing last December about linearity and how much most of the people were saying Modern is a "two ships passing in the night" format.
People did complain some about linearity, but linearity is different than "two ships passing in the night." The latter is when two decks basically ignore each other and try to do their own thing. The former is when decks have the same basic strategy each time.
For example, aggro decks are pretty linear by definition. But if an aggro deck goes up against an aggro deck (as long as evasion isn't heavily involved), they're not "two ships passing in the night" because they are required to pay attention to each other in order to win. You have to maximize your offense while keeping up a defense.
I agree. People tend to forget how much were we arguing last December about linearity and how much most of the people were saying Modern is a "two ships passing in the night" format.
People did complain some about linearity, but linearity is different than "two ships passing in the night." The latter is when two decks basically ignore each other and try to do their own thing. The former is when decks have the same basic strategy each time.
This. The meta has shifted such that rather than try and stop or deal with opponents, the better strategy is to hope to be faster than them or simply play through them. I do not see this as "better." It's like compating lap times in a racing competition instead of actually racing against other drivers.
I agree. People tend to forget how much were we arguing last December about linearity and how much most of the people were saying Modern is a "two ships passing in the night" format.
People did complain some about linearity, but linearity is different than "two ships passing in the night." The latter is when two decks basically ignore each other and try to do their own thing. The former is when decks have the same basic strategy each time.
This. The meta has shifted such that rather than try and stop or deal with opponents, the better strategy is to hope to be faster than them or simply play through them. I do not see this as "better." It's like compating lap times in a racing competition instead of actually racing against other drivers.
And Twin would help this by... being a combo deck that barely cares if the opponent exists? Just because it cares about the opponent slightly more than Infect or Grishoalbrand does not make it an interactive deck.
Private Mod Note
():
Rollback Post to RevisionRollBack
Level 1 Judge
"I hope to have such a death... lying in triumph atop the broken bodies of those who slew me..."
You don't call "dying to removal" if the removal is more expensive in resources than the creature. If you have to spend BG (Abrupt Decay), or W + basic land (PtE) to remove a 1G, that is not "dying to removal". Strictly speaking Goyf dies to removal, but actually your removal is dying to Goyf.
I agree. People tend to forget how much were we arguing last December about linearity and how much most of the people were saying Modern is a "two ships passing in the night" format.
People did complain some about linearity, but linearity is different than "two ships passing in the night." The latter is when two decks basically ignore each other and try to do their own thing. The former is when decks have the same basic strategy each time.
This. The meta has shifted such that rather than try and stop or deal with opponents, the better strategy is to hope to be faster than them or simply play through them. I do not see this as "better." It's like compating lap times in a racing competition instead of actually racing against other drivers.
And Twin would help this by... being a combo deck that barely cares if the opponent exists? Just because it cares about the opponent slightly more than Infect or Grishoalbrand does not make it an interactive deck.
It can't win before turn 4 and forcesencourages people run normal forms of interaction (creature removal, discard, counterspells, etc). This is a bad thing?
I agree. People tend to forget how much were we arguing last December about linearity and how much most of the people were saying Modern is a "two ships passing in the night" format.
People did complain some about linearity, but linearity is different than "two ships passing in the night." The latter is when two decks basically ignore each other and try to do their own thing. The former is when decks have the same basic strategy each time.
This. The meta has shifted such that rather than try and stop or deal with opponents, the better strategy is to hope to be faster than them or simply play through them. I do not see this as "better." It's like compating lap times in a racing competition instead of actually racing against other drivers.
And Twin would help this by... being a combo deck that barely cares if the opponent exists? Just because it cares about the opponent slightly more than Infect or Grishoalbrand does not make it an interactive deck.
It can't win before turn 4 and forcesencourages people run normal forms of interaction (creature removal, discard, counterspells, etc). This is a bad thing?
Well you can make any deck win before turn 4 if you added Simian Spirit Guide or 1-mana dorks. What the format needs is a universal answer that's probably not gonna get printed in a Standard legal set.
They technically do with Disrupting Shoal. What Modern really needs is the 2nd free counter magic spell that Daze covers. In fact, I'll be even okay with Daze being modern legal.
I'll do this for both the whole 2016 (10 PT/GPs) first and then the post-Eye-ban period (6 GPs).
Eldrazi - 28% Top8
Affinity - 10% Top8
Jund - 6% Top8
Living End - 6% Top8
Death's Shadow - 5% Top8
Affinity - 10% Top8
Jund - 10% Top8
Death's Shadow - 8% Top8
Burn - 6% Top8
Eldrazi - 6% Top8
RG Breach - 6% Top8
Twin's was the lowest "bannable" Top8 % so I'll take it as the threshold (18.75% exactly), which translates to 15/80 (whole year) and 9/48 (post-Eye period). Keep in mind GP Dallas is the only data point left before the first 2017 banlist announcement.
If we take the whole year, Affinity is the only deck that could reach Twin's threshold, but it would have to take a whopping 7 Top8 spots, which is highly unlikely.
On the other hand, if we only take the post-Eye data into account, Both Affinity and Jund would need 4 Top8 spots to reach Twin's threshold, while Death's Shadow would need 5. Again, this level of success would be really surprising and it is unlikely.
So, regarding competitive diversity bans, I expect No Bans for the early 2017 B&R announcement. And again, this is all assuming WotC doesn't change the modern ban policies now that it is no longer a Pro Tour format (got you covered there, Sheridan). I do want to express my disdain for multiple GP weekends, not only because we don't get full video coverage of the GPs, but also because I feel it seems to favor "breakout decks" and does not totally reflect the metagame shift that Modern develops over the months. (monthly GPs would be awesome).
UR ....... WUBR ........... WB ............. RGW ........ UBR ....... WUB .... BGU
Spells / Blink & Combo / Token Grind / Dino Tribal / Draw Cards / Zombies / Reanimate
decks playing:
none
I believe you and I have very different definitions of "awesome."
Also, KTK's thoughts reflect the events as a whole, in addition to the "awesome" Top 8s. Looking forward to a more detailed analysis on Nexus soon.
UR ....... WUBR ........... WB ............. RGW ........ UBR ....... WUB .... BGU
Spells / Blink & Combo / Token Grind / Dino Tribal / Draw Cards / Zombies / Reanimate
The top 16s and top 32s are more important in aggregate than just top8s. The top16s and top32s in aggregate (apparently) are far less pretty than just the top8s.
Yeah, it's not that bad overall, but it's also not where I wanted to see it evolve since the spring. Death's Shadow Zoo in particular is the kind of deck which should make format watchdogs worried in the long-term. In particular, I'm nervous that the GP Indy results will receive more coverage and notice than the others, shifting the format more heavily to linear options instead of stuff like Grixis or Jeskai Thing. I'm similarly nervous that the big dogs at Indy are more proven and reliable options than upstart Tier 2-3 players like Jeskai Thing, Delver, and UW Control. Finally, I do NOT like those Top 16s/32s, although I know they get less weight than the Top 8s. All of that has me cautious but not outright worried for the next few months, and none of it moves me to consider unbans or bans yet. I hope Wizards feels similarly.
Maybe they setup the Modern GP schedules like this on purpose. That way they really don't have to react to anything unless it is a clear problem across all events and they receive tons of negative feedback all at once. If we're given a slow trickle of events throughout the year and people complain every single one, they would be more pressured into making changes. This way, as long as they're not all catastrophic failures, they can point to parts of one of them and say "See? Things are fine." Maybe I'm giving Wizards too much credit on this.
UR ....... WUBR ........... WB ............. RGW ........ UBR ....... WUB .... BGU
Spells / Blink & Combo / Token Grind / Dino Tribal / Draw Cards / Zombies / Reanimate
I really didn't expect cfusion to say 'unban Twin' again.
At this point I just accept being the meme. LOL. Honestly though, once I stopped trying to play that horridly boring Nahiri deck, I have been greatly enjoying Grixis Delver/Control. Would I play Twin immediately if unbanned? Sure. Is it an absolute #1 priority? Probably not. But I do think many people greatly underestimated the impact removing it would have on the format.
UR ....... WUBR ........... WB ............. RGW ........ UBR ....... WUB .... BGU
Spells / Blink & Combo / Token Grind / Dino Tribal / Draw Cards / Zombies / Reanimate
UWRjeskai nahiri UWR
UBRgrixis titi UBR
UBRgrixis delverUBR
UR ur kikimite UR
EDH
RUG Riku of Two Reflections RUG
UBR Marchesa, the Black Rose UBR
UBRGYidris, Maelstrom Wielder UBRG
UBRJeleva, Nephalia's ScourgeUBR
UWRjeskai nahiri UWR
UBRgrixis titi UBR
UBRgrixis delverUBR
UR ur kikimite UR
EDH
RUG Riku of Two Reflections RUG
UBR Marchesa, the Black Rose UBR
UBRGYidris, Maelstrom Wielder UBRG
UBRJeleva, Nephalia's ScourgeUBR
Well sort of. You can do well if:
A) You can kill your opponent faster than they can kill you.
B) You can kill your opponent through the hate they bring in against you.
- B.1) Your opponent never draws their hate.
C) Your opponent has no idea what you're doing.
- C.1) Your opponent doesn't sideboard properly.
- C.2) Your opponent doesn't have good or proper cards to deal with you at all.
D) You get really lucky with dice rolls, draws, matchups, mulligans, and variance.
This kind of seems to be where Modern is at right now.
UR ....... WUBR ........... WB ............. RGW ........ UBR ....... WUB .... BGU
Spells / Blink & Combo / Token Grind / Dino Tribal / Draw Cards / Zombies / Reanimate
Standard: lol no
Modern: BG/x, UR/x, Burn, Merfolk, Zoo, Storm
Legacy: Shardless BUG, Delver (BUG, RUG, Grixis), Landstill, Depths Combo, Merfolk
Vintage: Dark Times, BUG Fish, Merfolk
EDH: Teysa, Orzhov Scion / Krenko, Mob Boss / Stonebrow, Krosan Hero
decks playing:
none
I actually disgree about the second part of the statement. Aside from force of will, the biggest difference between fair legacy decks and modern decks is good card selection. When your card selection is good, you find the answers you need more frequently and are more likely to draw your sideboard cards. The answers in modern are fine, finding them on time can be tricky. Other than force, what generic answers are in legacy that aren't in modern? Swords? We have path. Flusterstorm? Wouldn't even be that Good in modern and there isn't much need to hose storm more. Other than that, Abrupt decay, mana leak, k command and bolt are all great catch alls to name a few.
On the other hand, i agree that Preordain isnt enough to create sustainable t1 jeskai/grixis, although i believe driver would put up a Serious fight. But if we arent getting counterspell/innocent blood/swords to plowshares, we gotta ask for what we can get
UWRjeskai nahiri UWR
UBRgrixis titi UBR
UBRgrixis delverUBR
UR ur kikimite UR
EDH
RUG Riku of Two Reflections RUG
UBR Marchesa, the Black Rose UBR
UBRGYidris, Maelstrom Wielder UBRG
UBRJeleva, Nephalia's ScourgeUBR
Id go ahead and say thats how MAGIC has always been. He basically said, if your deck is good and executes its gameplan, and your opponent's gameplan doesnt directly counter yours/win faster than yours, you win. Last i checked, thats how 99% of magics games ever have happened
UWRjeskai nahiri UWR
UBRgrixis titi UBR
UBRgrixis delverUBR
UR ur kikimite UR
EDH
RUG Riku of Two Reflections RUG
UBR Marchesa, the Black Rose UBR
UBRGYidris, Maelstrom Wielder UBRG
UBRJeleva, Nephalia's ScourgeUBR
I have to give credit to WOTC, right now the banlist seems fine, the only card that COULD come off would be BBE and it's really not necesary because of what i just said, no fixing whatsoever of linearity.
Let's face it, the cards that one could consider a hit for linear strategies would be:Splinter Twin, SFM,some cantrip?(that one is risky it could cause more problems), DTT and that's it. All those tools just make the format more homogene, no diversity and a real possible push for the midrange decks of the format out of it.
Bans are more considerable. Some pro's suggested Nacatl, Becomme Immense, Gitaxian Probe.
I think, ultimately, a new card has to enter the format via printing not banlist managing. They have managed the banlist pretty well this far.
They have to think of a way to stop linear decks in their second biggest constructed format some way or another.
And when Twin was legal, you could do well if:
A) You can kill your opponent faster than they can kill you.
B) You can kill your opponent through the hate they bring in against you.
- B.1) Your opponent never draws their hate.
C) Your opponent has no idea what you're doing.
- C.1) Your opponent doesn't sideboard properly.
- C.2) Your opponent doesn't have good or proper cards to deal with you at all.
D) You get really lucky with dice rolls, draws, matchups, mulligans, and variance.
Funny... those lists look really similar...
"I hope to have such a death... lying in triumph atop the broken bodies of those who slew me..."
Standard: lol no
Modern: BG/x, UR/x, Burn, Merfolk, Zoo, Storm
Legacy: Shardless BUG, Delver (BUG, RUG, Grixis), Landstill, Depths Combo, Merfolk
Vintage: Dark Times, BUG Fish, Merfolk
EDH: Teysa, Orzhov Scion / Krenko, Mob Boss / Stonebrow, Krosan Hero
For example, aggro decks are pretty linear by definition. But if an aggro deck goes up against an aggro deck (as long as evasion isn't heavily involved), they're not "two ships passing in the night" because they are required to pay attention to each other in order to win. You have to maximize your offense while keeping up a defense.
This. The meta has shifted such that rather than try and stop or deal with opponents, the better strategy is to hope to be faster than them or simply play through them. I do not see this as "better." It's like compating lap times in a racing competition instead of actually racing against other drivers.
UR ....... WUBR ........... WB ............. RGW ........ UBR ....... WUB .... BGU
Spells / Blink & Combo / Token Grind / Dino Tribal / Draw Cards / Zombies / Reanimate
And Twin would help this by... being a combo deck that barely cares if the opponent exists? Just because it cares about the opponent slightly more than Infect or Grishoalbrand does not make it an interactive deck.
"I hope to have such a death... lying in triumph atop the broken bodies of those who slew me..."
It can't win before turn 4 and
forcesencourages people run normal forms of interaction (creature removal, discard, counterspells, etc). This is a bad thing?UR ....... WUBR ........... WB ............. RGW ........ UBR ....... WUB .... BGU
Spells / Blink & Combo / Token Grind / Dino Tribal / Draw Cards / Zombies / Reanimate
Well you can make any deck win before turn 4 if you added Simian Spirit Guide or 1-mana dorks. What the format needs is a universal answer that's probably not gonna get printed in a Standard legal set.
Modern Tallowisp Spirits - A Modern Tallowisp Deck UW
Eldrazi Ninjas - Summoning Octopus Jutsu YYYYAAAHHHH!
STANDARD
Naban Wizards
- 2012 - Bloodbraid Elf - 22% Top8
- 2013 - Deathrite Shaman - 29% Top8
- 2014 - Birthing Pod - 22% Top8
- 2015 - Splinter Twin - 19% Top8
- 2016 - Eye of Ugin - 24% Top8
I'll do this for both the whole 2016 (10 PT/GPs) first and then the post-Eye-ban period (6 GPs).Twin's was the lowest "bannable" Top8 % so I'll take it as the threshold (18.75% exactly), which translates to 15/80 (whole year) and 9/48 (post-Eye period). Keep in mind GP Dallas is the only data point left before the first 2017 banlist announcement.
If we take the whole year, Affinity is the only deck that could reach Twin's threshold, but it would have to take a whopping 7 Top8 spots, which is highly unlikely.
On the other hand, if we only take the post-Eye data into account, Both Affinity and Jund would need 4 Top8 spots to reach Twin's threshold, while Death's Shadow would need 5. Again, this level of success would be really surprising and it is unlikely.
So, regarding competitive diversity bans, I expect No Bans for the early 2017 B&R announcement. And again, this is all assuming WotC doesn't change the modern ban policies now that it is no longer a Pro Tour format (got you covered there, Sheridan). I do want to express my disdain for multiple GP weekends, not only because we don't get full video coverage of the GPs, but also because I feel it seems to favor "breakout decks" and does not totally reflect the metagame shift that Modern develops over the months. (monthly GPs would be awesome).
*Edit: tags
Frontier: UBR Grixis Control | BRG Jund Delirium