Oath of the Gatewatch protour Top 8 had 6h. Copies of Eldrazi in it, and 2 Affinity. When you got to top 16, the diversity is a little better... but not by much, 50% Eldrazi rather than 75%.
This fact, along with its continued success has raised concern in our community more than any other ban or time since I've been a mod here on mtg salvation. Coupled with the people "giving up on modern" decreased price of modern staples, and overall low feeling for the modern community, I have decided this is an important topic that should be discussed. More over, the hope is that Wizards of the Coast, who has been keeping an eye on community reaction, could hopefully find this thread helpful to gauge the overall feel of our community. MTGsalvation is the highest viewed site for modern on the whole of the internet, so this would be the place to look.
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To start off, here is some data I've been collecting. Below are the meta's of Twin's ban to the Protour and the meta from the protour til now. The links are "dynamic" which means when I update them daily, the pie charts change. so the links are always accurate.
An unrefined version that, by virtue of timing, didn't take advantage of the new oath low cost eldrazi was 13%, at or higher than twins share when it was banned. Then the influx of new cards in theme and pro refinement has pushed it to over 40%.
I still fail to see a valid reason for the lack of an emergency ban.
A fair number of the individuals with stats to back it up and a long history in the game appear to be of the opinion that this is a rather unprecedented occurrence. As such it only makes sense that the action is of a similar proportion to the bizarre success of the deck. In my opinion the "safest" course of action (taking current Eldrazi players as well as the rest of the meta into consideration) would be to allow it to play out for a month or two and monitor the meta shift. If the entire meta moves towards prison/attrition/resource denial decks aimed at stopping Eldrazi from even hitting the board I'd say the meta would be in an unwatchable and unenjoyable space that would need to be addressed quickly.
While it might be fine for players who have the resources to play multiple decks or who could buy into Eldrazi, there are a lot of players that will probably avoid the format until they know they're at least going to be able to enjoy an average FNM of modern rather than crossing their fingers and hoping to dodge the 40%+ Eldrazi field.
The prevalence and statistical data on MTGO is probably far more concerning than the paper buyouts and panic spikes in the secondary market though.
Yeah theoretically they can have some insane first few turns, but I haven't lost a match to them yet as it doesn't seem to happen all that often in practice. Their late game isn't great so we just need to survive those early punches somehow... Adapt!
I really, really think a ban is needed, but which card to ban and why is the real discussion.
I think that even if the metagame adapts to this situation, it would be like the standard affinity where the decks where: Affinity > Fair Decks > Lame decks who pack a lot of Affinity hate > Affinity; and I think it wouldn't be a fun format to play.
I live in a place with a small LGS, but my current plan is to keep playing till some folks get their hands into this degenerate strategy, from there, I'll just watch what technologies or bans emerge with the time to solve this issue.
Most cards in the core of the recent Eldrazi decks are pure value. In the B/x versions going: T1 - Eye of Ugin, Eldrazi Mimic T2 - Urborg, Tomb of Yawgmoth, Thought-Knot Seer and swinging for 4 is insane (this is a best case scenario. but still).
Don't know if there's going to be an emergency ban but I don't think SOI will bring the needed answers.
EDIT - Best case scenario you drop 4 Eldrazi Mimics T1.
This scenario does not work, as you need at least one colorless source to cast Thought-Knot Seer. You would need Eldrazi Temple as the turn 2 land drop.
The deck does currently have some insane openers.
I do feel though, that one of the reasons why the Channel Fireball version did so well was that Simian Spirit Guide into Chalice actually negated some of the worst matchups for the deck by largely blowing out affinity and infect. Without that tech you would have only seen the UR version and Lepore's processors in the top 8. Which is a very different framework.
The issue also with Pro Tour results are twofold. (and for my money, with this Pro Tour, threefold)
Firstly, it is a very insular metagame with only a limited number of players, meaning that there will naturally be less diversity because…
…Secondly, the Teams tend to swarm to one strategy (25 players on the exact same deck is going to post some numbers, for sure) this segues into the fact that…
…Thirdly, the shake up to the metagame in the pre-tour bannings created an environment where the teams cracked the code and made a deck that the metagame was completely unprepared for (and not particularly stable either), additionally in this point, both decks that were banned would have handily kept the Eldrazi decks down, though at the expense of themselves showing to be more oppressive.
As it stands now, I do not believe an emergency ban is warranted as you make the decision before the metagame has had an opportunity to correct itself. This will take a little time, but it’s entirely possible.
Now. Should the metagame roll forwards and the presence of the various flavours of Eldrazi deck (be they the colourless stompy aggro, the blue-red, the black base processors or whatever) are so oppressive that they are forcing people to play decks that are designed only to beat the Eldrazi, or wipe out huge chunks of previously competitive archetypes, then I think we have a legitimate basis for a banning.
I feel the metagame needs to be given the chance to breathe though, otherwise we never actually get to know whether the metagame can handle it, and two or three months of information is preferable to banning a brand new archetype that (even if it does, on the basis of one, very insular event) appears to be at first sight, oppressive.
TL:DR version.
No Emergency Ban.
Let the Format breathe.
Review in 2 ish months.
Be prepared to ban if self-correction is not forthcoming.
TL:DR version.
No Emergency Ban.
Let the Format breathe.
Review in 2 ish months.
Be prepared to ban if self-correction is not forthcoming.
Issue resolved. Thread closed.
More seriously, that's where I am too. Anything else is premature and potentially much more damaging to Modern in the long-term than Eldrazi could possibly be in the short-term.
I'm playing the PT Gauntlet right now on MTGO and I was gifted Colorless Eldrazi. I can say that having never played the deck before, and having made several errors or mistakes in play, I simply crushed my first Blue Moon opponent 2-0. Game 1 was won through a Blood Moon as well. The deck is absolutely bonkers. Waiting for Match 2 to start.
So, here's my analysis of how this occurred, and why I think the problem is overblown:
1: A new viable deck is introduced to Modern via BfZ. Most people don't realize its potential immediately, and while it sees some successes, it isn't really given the metagame consideration it deserves besides a few excited murmurs amongst brewers.
2: A major, format-defining deck is essentially banned out of existence. The metagame scrambles to react to this, primarily by focusing on extremely linear strategies that are powerful, but not difficult to hate out.
3: A larger number of viable cards for the new deck are released simultaneously, but pull it in a pretty different direction, leaving two new powerful archetypes that, while very similar, take different tools to combat.
4: While the broader metagame does not have time to adapt to this change, multiple professional players do. Noting a lack of effective hate to the new strategy, and a very predictable metagame, they enter the Pro Tour with decks that are all-in on vomiting out Eldrazi, with little interaction outside of one extremely powerful hate card that takes out most of the linear decks that had just overtaken the meta.
5: This strategy works for these pros, and for the few others who picked up the deck. The community notes that said strategy works, and, quite honestly, is both a cool deck designed around playing big nasty aliens, and very fresh in a Modern meta that is otherwise hard to break into. It thus sees huge amounts of play and price-spiking, in a rather intense flavor-of-the-month effect.
This might be wrong, but I don't really think so. Eldrazi is a powerful new strategy, but it is nothing above what Modern has historically dealt with. The metagame will adapt. It may be somewhat slow to do so, due to the sheer amount of fear and hype around the deck, but I strongly believe that it will.
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TL:DR version.
No Emergency Ban.
Let the Format breathe.
Review in 2 ish months.
Be prepared to ban if self-correction is not forthcoming.
Issue resolved. Thread closed.
More seriously, that's where I am too. Anything else is premature and potentially much more damaging to Modern in the long-term than Eldrazi could possibly be in the short-term.
Anything else would essentially cause a purge of Modern and player trust more than it already has. An emergency ban would be what "kills" the format.
EDIT: I like the way Pat Chapin basically summed up this thread:
"First, let's make sure we're all on the same page about this whole “Eldrazi” thing. The Eldrazi Aggro strategy dominated at historic levels this past weekend at Pro Tour Oath of the Gatewatch. There isn't going to be any emergency ban, so let's just get that out of the way. That's not even remotely an option, nor useful to argue about. Modern is a big format. Maybe Eldrazi can't be beaten, but there's absolutely no reason to not let the world try for at least three months."
I'm playing the PT Gauntlet right now on MTGO and I was gifted Colorless Eldrazi. I can say that having never played the deck before, and having made several errors or mistakes in play, I simply crushed my first Blue Moon opponent 2-0. Game 1 was won through a Blood Moon as well. The deck is absolutely bonkers. Waiting for Match 2 to start.
2-0 against Blue Moon, 2-0 against Abzan Company. I don't even know what I'm doing or if I'm playing optimal lines. Never touched the deck before today; only watched some of the PT. Deck is extremely robust and powerful.
I'm playing the PT Gauntlet right now on MTGO and I was gifted Colorless Eldrazi. I can say that having never played the deck before, and having made several errors or mistakes in play, I simply crushed my first Blue Moon opponent 2-0. Game 1 was won through a Blood Moon as well. The deck is absolutely bonkers. Waiting for Match 2 to start.
2-0 against Blue Moon, 2-0 against Abzan Company. I don't even know what I'm doing or if I'm playing optimal lines. Never touched the deck before today; only watched some of the PT. Deck is extremely robust and powerful.
I dunno if the Gauntlet is the best reference point.
I mean, getting a taste of what it would be like to field Diamond Stompy at the PT, that's one thing, but I don't think it actually reflects the metagame state where people are aware of the deck and tweaked to account for it.
I'm playing the PT Gauntlet right now on MTGO and I was gifted Colorless Eldrazi. I can say that having never played the deck before, and having made several errors or mistakes in play, I simply crushed my first Blue Moon opponent 2-0. Game 1 was won through a Blood Moon as well. The deck is absolutely bonkers. Waiting for Match 2 to start.
2-0 against Blue Moon, 2-0 against Abzan Company. I don't even know what I'm doing or if I'm playing optimal lines. Never touched the deck before today; only watched some of the PT. Deck is extremely robust and powerful.
Have you encountered any sideboard cards against your deck?
I think the problem with blue moon is that even after dropping moon and slowing you down, they dont have a way to quickly close out the game. By the time they get to batterskull, You already have the natural mana for Thought-Knot Seer. And thats bad enough. Blue moon also lacks removal to deal with really big threats (out of bolt range).
I belive the question is not "are there ways to beat the deck" because there are. The question is "can enough established/new decks run the means to beat eldrazi without losing their identity and efficiency".
This really sums it up perfectly, thank you. The other big issue isn't if a deck can beat Eldrazi, but how does it stand against the rest of the field.
Trying to dodge Eldrazi at 40% meta share with your deck is one thing. Trying to dodge the other 60% with your anti Eldrazi deck is another, and neither are the solutions we need.
For people in the more data range, what's your opinion on MTGO data? At least in my opinion, sufficiently ridiculous MTGO results should count as additional data, and the MTGO information is almost as bad as the Pro Tour.
In the First PTQ Sunday, Eldrazi was 4/6 of the undefeated decks, 6/14 of the 5-1 decks, and 0/12 in the 4-2 decks (There's one deck listed as Eldrazi, but it's the outdated list without Mimic). So the players who bought into Eldrazi all did great, none doing as "poorly" as 4-2.
In the published results, Eldrazi has consistently been 40-50% of the winners metagame.
There's someone out there tracking MTGO match results and matchups. I won't link them so WOTC doesn't shut them down like they did MTGGoldfish, but over the past week the two variations of Eldrazi have 67% and 66% MWP against the field. For comparison, Burn is 64% against Tron, and Affinity is 64% against Merfolk. So Eldrazi is better against the field than two of the most lopsided matchups in Modern, and that's a field that's probably over 30% mirrors! The non-mirror MWP is probably over 70%.
Those numbers are both unprecedented and ridiculously stupid, and why I'm not worried about "adaptation". You can't just tweak some slots and sideboard cards to fix a 30-70 matchup, so the adaptation is going to look like most of the current meta being unplayable, which will lead to a ban anyway. I don't think Wizards will emergency ban now, but after this and Cruise I think they'll want a better way to deal with eternal "oopsies", like moving the B&R announcement to ~1 month after the set release.
For people in the more data range, what's your opinion on MTGO data? At least in my opinion, sufficiently ridiculous MTGO results should count as additional data, and the MTGO information is almost as bad as the Pro Tour.
In the First PTQ Sunday, Eldrazi was 4/6 of the undefeated decks, 6/14 of the 5-1 decks, and 0/12 in the 4-2 decks (There's one deck listed as Eldrazi, but it's the outdated list without Mimic). So the players who bought into Eldrazi all did great, none doing as "poorly" as 4-2.
In the published results, Eldrazi has consistently been 40-50% of the winners metagame.
There's someone out there tracking MTGO match results and matchups. I won't link them so WOTC doesn't shut them down like they did MTGGoldfish, but over the past week the two variations of Eldrazi have 67% and 66% MWP against the field. For comparison, Burn is 64% against Tron, and Affinity is 64% against Merfolk. So Eldrazi is better against the field than two of the most lopsided matchups in Modern, and that's a field that's probably over 30% mirrors! The non-mirror MWP is probably over 70%.
Those numbers are both unprecedented and ridiculously stupid, and why I'm not worried about "adaptation". You can't just tweak some slots and sideboard cards to fix a 30-70 matchup, so the adaptation is going to look like most of the current meta being unplayable, which will lead to a ban anyway. I don't think Wizards will emergency ban now, but after this and Cruise I think they'll want a better way to deal with eternal "oopsies", like moving the B&R announcement to ~1 month after the set release.
The deck is a complete monster. I've basically been playing nothing but bolts and snapcasters since I started playing modern. Never played stompy creature decks and have very little knowledge of their ins and outs. The Eldrazi deck I played is so much more objectively powerful than anything I have played, I was in awe. Multiple free 2/2s on turn 1? Thoughtsiezing 4/4 on turn 2? A 1 mana 3/2 that gives you stuff? A 3 mana 5/5 hastey trampler that requires a discard to deal with? Spellskites for protection, Chalice to shut down fast decks, and just enough disruption to keep your opponent off their game? This is lunacy. If I had these cards myself I would not be playing anything else. I would play this over Splinter Twin ANY DAY EVERY DAY. This deck is unbelievably good.
There are decks that straight out beat Eldrazi. Some of them are current Tier 2 decks that a lot of people are not playing. Give it time it will work out.
If a ban is needed Eldrazi Mimic is the way to go. Mimic gives the deck its busted draws that are unwinnable from the other side of the table. I don't think there is a deck in the format that can handle that draw. This will allow the deck to keep its strong starting draws but not get the free wins it gets now.
Those numbers are both unprecedented and ridiculously stupid, and why I'm not worried about "adaptation". You can't just tweak some slots and sideboard cards to fix a 30-70 matchup, so the adaptation is going to look like most of the current meta being unplayable, which will lead to a ban anyway. I don't think Wizards will emergency ban now, but after this and Cruise I think they'll want a better way to deal with eternal "oopsies", like moving the B&R announcement to ~1 month after the set release.
I agree with everything your saying.
However. If I had to guess, sales numbers for Magic sets are probably like sales for movies and music. They are high the first couple of weeks and drop off precipitously after that. So there is a strong business case for why there is not immediate / emergency ban options. That needs to be weighed against health of the eternal formats. I would guess no action on this for 3 months minimum (or whenever ban updates usually take place).
As a merfolk player, who basically gives up on the affinity matchup, those Eldrazi vs. field numbers are sobering.
There are decks that straight out beat Eldrazi. Some of them are current Tier 2 decks that a lot of people are not playing. Give it time it will work out.
If a ban is needed Eldrazi Mimic is the way to go. Mimic gives the deck its busted draws that are unwinnable from the other side of the table. I don't think there is a deck in the format that can handle that draw. This will allow the deck to keep its strong starting draws but not get the free wins it gets now.
Mimics are not the problem at all. The problems are putting two 3/2s on turn 2 that put free things on the battlefield. 3 mana 5/5s with haste, trample, and card advantage. Turn 2 Thoughtsieze with a 4/4 body. Mimics make for fun explosive starts, but are a compliment to a completely busted machine, not the catalyst.
I didn't believe that until I played with it. The deck is bonkers at just about every level and top-decks as good (or better) than Jund. Everything is relevant at all stages of the game.
Owen Turtenwald's latest article for CFB is an interesting read in light of the recent PT's results, especially the first part of the article. For reference:
The part about the significance of mulligans, to my mind, more or less demonstrates exactly what is wrong with the format at this point. The eldrazi onslaught only made sure we see those problems written in a bigger letters. To fix this issue is to fix Modern as a format.
How can this be accomplished?
For one thing, bans alone clearly don't cut it. What's worse, the last ban clearly showed that WotC is quite willing to make changes to the list which aren't motivated by the health of the format but rather other interests that exist not just outside of the format but outside of the game of Magic as we know it. This practice needs to stop, especially if they wish to persist with the policy that the ban list is the only way they plan to regulate the format.
One thing that I feel absolutely needs to be done is that WotC needs to include Modern in their testing gauntlet for new sets much more then it did up to now. It only makes sense to make sure future sets have a desirable effect on a format that is part of the Pro Tour, is a (R)PTQ format and is played at the Player's Championship as well as multiple GP's throughout the year. Standard is only as good as it is now because significant time, effort and resources went into making sure it is so. What's the reason for not doing the same with Modern if you want to promote it at high profile events?
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I'm not extremely practiced against the deck, but as far as I can tell, the offensive power it represents simply outweighs the answers available in this format. Legacy has the kind of tools needed to answer a deck like this: Force of Will to handle an absurd play on turn 1 or turn 2 on the play, Wasteland to efficiently answer powerful land synergies, and the potential to win asymmetrically in a timely fashion. Modern's best removal, while a million miles past Standard's, still doesn't answer these threats to satisfaction, the countermagic and land destruction is probably a full turn or two too slow, and without Twin the main method of counterattacking along a different line is gone.
Emergency ban? Probably not. I won't claim to have a deep enough understanding of the format to say this warrants that treatment. But I am scared, and I do feel powerless. I want something like a creature-only Spell Pierce or an Innocent Blood reprint to push back against this level of power, and I can't imagine getting that any time soon...
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The problems isn't that Eldrazi is too powerful. The problem is people are unwilling to adapt to beat it. Cards like Ensnaring bridge give them fits. I find it interesting that my old RW lockdown deck AND 8Rack both have solid games against Eldrazi.
I don't think Wizards will emergency ban now, but after this and Cruise I think they'll want a better way to deal with eternal "oopsies", like moving the B&R announcement to ~1 month after the set release.
Just chiming in that this would not happen. There are several mechanisms here, but two are particularly important. WotC wants the ban before the tour so that things like this happen. I say 'things like this' because WotC doesn't want exactly what happened here. But, WotC does want the pros to shake-up the format and waiting until after the pro tour would just have the pro tour look like the previous format. The other issue preventing is the actual functionality. Changing the ban list at the same time as a new set becomes legal is logistically far simpler, both in paper and in MTGO.
An emergency ban is not going to happen for a simple reason: history. An emergency ban would only happen if tournament attendance was severely depressed (look at the only emergency ban, Memory Jar). However, Modern is not the majority of tournaments, so it would probably have to take a complete abandonment of Modern tournaments to reach the requisite level. Outside of that, Modern bannings are about the Modern metagame. WotC has talked several times about waiting to see how the metagame develops over several months. An emergency ban is just not in the toolbox for Modern.
Piloting lower tiered decks that auto-lose to Affinity is not a viable method of beating the metagame. Just because you find a deck that can beat Eldrazi doesn't mean you've solved the puzzle.
This fact, along with its continued success has raised concern in our community more than any other ban or time since I've been a mod here on mtg salvation. Coupled with the people "giving up on modern" decreased price of modern staples, and overall low feeling for the modern community, I have decided this is an important topic that should be discussed. More over, the hope is that Wizards of the Coast, who has been keeping an eye on community reaction, could hopefully find this thread helpful to gauge the overall feel of our community. MTGsalvation is the highest viewed site for modern on the whole of the internet, so this would be the place to look.
This thread is MTGsalvations OFFICIAL place to discuss the facts surrounding the Eldrazi deck, its unprecedented jump in success, its dominance in the online meta, and the future of Modern as a whole. We will be reinforcing these rules:
This is a heated topic, and these rules MUST be followed. If you dont think you can, please don't post here. The mod team will be watching this this thread like a Glint Hawk. Modern's community wanted a clean, intelligent thread, so as mods we've listened and this is our solution. We hope this can be a good place for discussing this topic in the best way possible.
To start off, here is some data I've been collecting. Below are the meta's of Twin's ban to the Protour and the meta from the protour til now. The links are "dynamic" which means when I update them daily, the pie charts change. so the links are always accurate.
Post Twin til Protour VS Protour til Now
I still fail to see a valid reason for the lack of an emergency ban.
Standard: lol no
Modern: BG/x, UR/x, Burn, Merfolk, Zoo, Storm
Legacy: Shardless BUG, Delver (BUG, RUG, Grixis), Landstill, Depths Combo, Merfolk
Vintage: Dark Times, BUG Fish, Merfolk
EDH: Teysa, Orzhov Scion / Krenko, Mob Boss / Stonebrow, Krosan Hero
While it might be fine for players who have the resources to play multiple decks or who could buy into Eldrazi, there are a lot of players that will probably avoid the format until they know they're at least going to be able to enjoy an average FNM of modern rather than crossing their fingers and hoping to dodge the 40%+ Eldrazi field.
The prevalence and statistical data on MTGO is probably far more concerning than the paper buyouts and panic spikes in the secondary market though.
Abzan Traverse / Traverse Shadow / UR Kiki
http://modernnexus.com/on-banning-and-beating-eldrazi/
I really, really think a ban is needed, but which card to ban and why is the real discussion.
I think that even if the metagame adapts to this situation, it would be like the standard affinity where the decks where: Affinity > Fair Decks > Lame decks who pack a lot of Affinity hate > Affinity; and I think it wouldn't be a fun format to play.
I live in a place with a small LGS, but my current plan is to keep playing till some folks get their hands into this degenerate strategy, from there, I'll just watch what technologies or bans emerge with the time to solve this issue.
This scenario does not work, as you need at least one colorless source to cast Thought-Knot Seer. You would need Eldrazi Temple as the turn 2 land drop.
I do feel though, that one of the reasons why the Channel Fireball version did so well was that Simian Spirit Guide into Chalice actually negated some of the worst matchups for the deck by largely blowing out affinity and infect. Without that tech you would have only seen the UR version and Lepore's processors in the top 8. Which is a very different framework.
The issue also with Pro Tour results are twofold. (and for my money, with this Pro Tour, threefold)
Firstly, it is a very insular metagame with only a limited number of players, meaning that there will naturally be less diversity because…
…Secondly, the Teams tend to swarm to one strategy (25 players on the exact same deck is going to post some numbers, for sure) this segues into the fact that…
…Thirdly, the shake up to the metagame in the pre-tour bannings created an environment where the teams cracked the code and made a deck that the metagame was completely unprepared for (and not particularly stable either), additionally in this point, both decks that were banned would have handily kept the Eldrazi decks down, though at the expense of themselves showing to be more oppressive.
As it stands now, I do not believe an emergency ban is warranted as you make the decision before the metagame has had an opportunity to correct itself. This will take a little time, but it’s entirely possible.
Now. Should the metagame roll forwards and the presence of the various flavours of Eldrazi deck (be they the colourless stompy aggro, the blue-red, the black base processors or whatever) are so oppressive that they are forcing people to play decks that are designed only to beat the Eldrazi, or wipe out huge chunks of previously competitive archetypes, then I think we have a legitimate basis for a banning.
I feel the metagame needs to be given the chance to breathe though, otherwise we never actually get to know whether the metagame can handle it, and two or three months of information is preferable to banning a brand new archetype that (even if it does, on the basis of one, very insular event) appears to be at first sight, oppressive.
TL:DR version.
No Emergency Ban.
Let the Format breathe.
Review in 2 ish months.
Be prepared to ban if self-correction is not forthcoming.
Issue resolved. Thread closed.
More seriously, that's where I am too. Anything else is premature and potentially much more damaging to Modern in the long-term than Eldrazi could possibly be in the short-term.
UR ....... WUBR ........... WB ............. RGW ........ UBR ....... WUB .... BGU
Spells / Blink & Combo / Token Grind / Dino Tribal / Draw Cards / Zombies / Reanimate
1: A new viable deck is introduced to Modern via BfZ. Most people don't realize its potential immediately, and while it sees some successes, it isn't really given the metagame consideration it deserves besides a few excited murmurs amongst brewers.
2: A major, format-defining deck is essentially banned out of existence. The metagame scrambles to react to this, primarily by focusing on extremely linear strategies that are powerful, but not difficult to hate out.
3: A larger number of viable cards for the new deck are released simultaneously, but pull it in a pretty different direction, leaving two new powerful archetypes that, while very similar, take different tools to combat.
4: While the broader metagame does not have time to adapt to this change, multiple professional players do. Noting a lack of effective hate to the new strategy, and a very predictable metagame, they enter the Pro Tour with decks that are all-in on vomiting out Eldrazi, with little interaction outside of one extremely powerful hate card that takes out most of the linear decks that had just overtaken the meta.
5: This strategy works for these pros, and for the few others who picked up the deck. The community notes that said strategy works, and, quite honestly, is both a cool deck designed around playing big nasty aliens, and very fresh in a Modern meta that is otherwise hard to break into. It thus sees huge amounts of play and price-spiking, in a rather intense flavor-of-the-month effect.
This might be wrong, but I don't really think so. Eldrazi is a powerful new strategy, but it is nothing above what Modern has historically dealt with. The metagame will adapt. It may be somewhat slow to do so, due to the sheer amount of fear and hype around the deck, but I strongly believe that it will.
EDIT: I like the way Pat Chapin basically summed up this thread:
"First, let's make sure we're all on the same page about this whole “Eldrazi” thing. The Eldrazi Aggro strategy dominated at historic levels this past weekend at Pro Tour Oath of the Gatewatch. There isn't going to be any emergency ban, so let's just get that out of the way. That's not even remotely an option, nor useful to argue about. Modern is a big format. Maybe Eldrazi can't be beaten, but there's absolutely no reason to not let the world try for at least three months."
You can find his article here on SCG premium.
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My Primers ~ GWx Vizier Company ~ Knightfall ~ RG Eldrazi ~ Green's Sun's Zenith
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2-0 against Blue Moon, 2-0 against Abzan Company. I don't even know what I'm doing or if I'm playing optimal lines. Never touched the deck before today; only watched some of the PT. Deck is extremely robust and powerful.
UR ....... WUBR ........... WB ............. RGW ........ UBR ....... WUB .... BGU
Spells / Blink & Combo / Token Grind / Dino Tribal / Draw Cards / Zombies / Reanimate
I dunno if the Gauntlet is the best reference point.
I mean, getting a taste of what it would be like to field Diamond Stompy at the PT, that's one thing, but I don't think it actually reflects the metagame state where people are aware of the deck and tweaked to account for it.
Besides the Blood Moon, I saw Stony Silence out of both Abzan Company, and my third match Suicide Zoo (which I won 2-1). Shuts down Spellskite, but he's still a great blocker. Shuts down Ratchet Bomb, but does NOT shut down Chalice of the Void.
All in all, went 3-0 for the matches and 6-1 for games. Not bad for a deck I have never played with before.
UR ....... WUBR ........... WB ............. RGW ........ UBR ....... WUB .... BGU
Spells / Blink & Combo / Token Grind / Dino Tribal / Draw Cards / Zombies / Reanimate
This really sums it up perfectly, thank you. The other big issue isn't if a deck can beat Eldrazi, but how does it stand against the rest of the field.
Trying to dodge Eldrazi at 40% meta share with your deck is one thing. Trying to dodge the other 60% with your anti Eldrazi deck is another, and neither are the solutions we need.
In the First PTQ Sunday, Eldrazi was 4/6 of the undefeated decks, 6/14 of the 5-1 decks, and 0/12 in the 4-2 decks (There's one deck listed as Eldrazi, but it's the outdated list without Mimic). So the players who bought into Eldrazi all did great, none doing as "poorly" as 4-2.
In the published results, Eldrazi has consistently been 40-50% of the winners metagame.
There's someone out there tracking MTGO match results and matchups. I won't link them so WOTC doesn't shut them down like they did MTGGoldfish, but over the past week the two variations of Eldrazi have 67% and 66% MWP against the field. For comparison, Burn is 64% against Tron, and Affinity is 64% against Merfolk. So Eldrazi is better against the field than two of the most lopsided matchups in Modern, and that's a field that's probably over 30% mirrors! The non-mirror MWP is probably over 70%.
Those numbers are both unprecedented and ridiculously stupid, and why I'm not worried about "adaptation". You can't just tweak some slots and sideboard cards to fix a 30-70 matchup, so the adaptation is going to look like most of the current meta being unplayable, which will lead to a ban anyway. I don't think Wizards will emergency ban now, but after this and Cruise I think they'll want a better way to deal with eternal "oopsies", like moving the B&R announcement to ~1 month after the set release.
The deck is a complete monster. I've basically been playing nothing but bolts and snapcasters since I started playing modern. Never played stompy creature decks and have very little knowledge of their ins and outs. The Eldrazi deck I played is so much more objectively powerful than anything I have played, I was in awe. Multiple free 2/2s on turn 1? Thoughtsiezing 4/4 on turn 2? A 1 mana 3/2 that gives you stuff? A 3 mana 5/5 hastey trampler that requires a discard to deal with? Spellskites for protection, Chalice to shut down fast decks, and just enough disruption to keep your opponent off their game? This is lunacy. If I had these cards myself I would not be playing anything else. I would play this over Splinter Twin ANY DAY EVERY DAY. This deck is unbelievably good.
UR ....... WUBR ........... WB ............. RGW ........ UBR ....... WUB .... BGU
Spells / Blink & Combo / Token Grind / Dino Tribal / Draw Cards / Zombies / Reanimate
If a ban is needed Eldrazi Mimic is the way to go. Mimic gives the deck its busted draws that are unwinnable from the other side of the table. I don't think there is a deck in the format that can handle that draw. This will allow the deck to keep its strong starting draws but not get the free wins it gets now.
I agree with everything your saying.
However. If I had to guess, sales numbers for Magic sets are probably like sales for movies and music. They are high the first couple of weeks and drop off precipitously after that. So there is a strong business case for why there is not immediate / emergency ban options. That needs to be weighed against health of the eternal formats. I would guess no action on this for 3 months minimum (or whenever ban updates usually take place).
As a merfolk player, who basically gives up on the affinity matchup, those Eldrazi vs. field numbers are sobering.
G Elves
U Merfolk
Mimics are not the problem at all. The problems are putting two 3/2s on turn 2 that put free things on the battlefield. 3 mana 5/5s with haste, trample, and card advantage. Turn 2 Thoughtsieze with a 4/4 body. Mimics make for fun explosive starts, but are a compliment to a completely busted machine, not the catalyst.
I didn't believe that until I played with it. The deck is bonkers at just about every level and top-decks as good (or better) than Jund. Everything is relevant at all stages of the game.
UR ....... WUBR ........... WB ............. RGW ........ UBR ....... WUB .... BGU
Spells / Blink & Combo / Token Grind / Dino Tribal / Draw Cards / Zombies / Reanimate
http://www.channelfireball.com/articles/modern-shouldnt-be-a-pro-tour-format
The part about the significance of mulligans, to my mind, more or less demonstrates exactly what is wrong with the format at this point. The eldrazi onslaught only made sure we see those problems written in a bigger letters. To fix this issue is to fix Modern as a format.
How can this be accomplished?
For one thing, bans alone clearly don't cut it. What's worse, the last ban clearly showed that WotC is quite willing to make changes to the list which aren't motivated by the health of the format but rather other interests that exist not just outside of the format but outside of the game of Magic as we know it. This practice needs to stop, especially if they wish to persist with the policy that the ban list is the only way they plan to regulate the format.
One thing that I feel absolutely needs to be done is that WotC needs to include Modern in their testing gauntlet for new sets much more then it did up to now. It only makes sense to make sure future sets have a desirable effect on a format that is part of the Pro Tour, is a (R)PTQ format and is played at the Player's Championship as well as multiple GP's throughout the year. Standard is only as good as it is now because significant time, effort and resources went into making sure it is so. What's the reason for not doing the same with Modern if you want to promote it at high profile events?
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Emergency ban? Probably not. I won't claim to have a deep enough understanding of the format to say this warrants that treatment. But I am scared, and I do feel powerless. I want something like a creature-only Spell Pierce or an Innocent Blood reprint to push back against this level of power, and I can't imagine getting that any time soon...
8Rack vs Eldrazi 1
8Rack vs Eldrazi 2
The problems isn't that Eldrazi is too powerful. The problem is people are unwilling to adapt to beat it. Cards like Ensnaring bridge give them fits. I find it interesting that my old RW lockdown deck AND 8Rack both have solid games against Eldrazi.
An emergency ban is not going to happen for a simple reason: history. An emergency ban would only happen if tournament attendance was severely depressed (look at the only emergency ban, Memory Jar). However, Modern is not the majority of tournaments, so it would probably have to take a complete abandonment of Modern tournaments to reach the requisite level. Outside of that, Modern bannings are about the Modern metagame. WotC has talked several times about waiting to see how the metagame develops over several months. An emergency ban is just not in the toolbox for Modern.
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Modern: BG/x, UR/x, Burn, Merfolk, Zoo, Storm
Legacy: Shardless BUG, Delver (BUG, RUG, Grixis), Landstill, Depths Combo, Merfolk
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