As a Twin player, I understand their mentality completely. I don't like it, but they're exactly right. Why would I play a UR control or tempo shell, when I could just play Twin? Why play Grixis control when I could just play Grixis Twin? Why play Jeskai Tempo when I could play Jeskai Twin? It DOES limit the strategy choices for anything running blue and red as primary colors, because it's usually just objectively better to run Twin than whatever other alternative wincon.
It's worth pointing out this was pretty much the same rationale used for the Wild Nacatl ban.
Now I just have to search out and see what I want to move my Twin deck into. The UR shell is now open to a lot more options, even if those options aren't as good or powerful.
And, much like Wild Nacatl, we'll probably see that the reason those weren't seeing play was because they weren't good or powerful enough.
As a Twin player, I understand their mentality completely. I don't like it, but they're exactly right. Why would I play a UR control or tempo shell, when I could just play Twin? Why play Grixis control when I could just play Grixis Twin? Why play Jeskai Tempo when I could play Jeskai Twin? It DOES limit the strategy choices for anything running blue and red as primary colors, because it's usually just objectively better to run Twin than whatever other alternative wincon.
It's worth pointing out this was pretty much the same rationale used for the Wild Nacatl ban.
Now I just have to search out and see what I want to move my Twin deck into. The UR shell is now open to a lot more options, even if those options aren't as good or powerful.
And, much like Wild Nacatl, we'll probably see that the reason those weren't seeing play was because they weren't good or powerful enough.
Yes this has been proven time and time again.
The ban wasnt for the health of the format. It was for "diversity" and often when they ban for diversity, it doesn't help the same shell magically turn into something else thats just as strong. It's meta share will be eaten up by different decks.
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Currently Playing:
Modern: UWUW TronUW
Legacy: WDeath N TaxesW CEldrazi C
If you couldn't tell I hate greedy blue decks.
As a Twin player, I understand their mentality completely. I don't like it, but they're exactly right. Why would I play a UR control or tempo shell, when I could just play Twin? Why play Grixis control when I could just play Grixis Twin? Why play Jeskai Tempo when I could play Jeskai Twin? It DOES limit the strategy choices for anything running blue and red as primary colors, because it's usually just objectively better to run Twin than whatever other alternative wincon.
It's worth pointing out this was pretty much the same rationale used for the Wild Nacatl ban.
Now I just have to search out and see what I want to move my Twin deck into. The UR shell is now open to a lot more options, even if those options aren't as good or powerful.
And, much like Wild Nacatl, we'll probably see that the reason those weren't seeing play was because they weren't good or powerful enough.
Yes this has been proven time and time again.
The ban wasnt for the health of the format. It was for "diversity" and often when they ban for diversity, it doesn't help the same shell magically turn into something else thats just as strong. It's meta share will be eaten up by different decks.
Except when pod/BBE were banned we had the flowering of different archetypes/decks.
I have to say I was shocked by the ban of Twin but I've seen one reasoning that, for me, completely explained/justified the ban: when the combo is so good that you are literally throwing it into any old deck as a reliable back up "oops I won" condition that says volumes about the combo even if I wouldn't have probably banned it myself.
Ah, yes, literally any old deck. That's why we see Tron playing Twin, Jund playing Twin, Junk playing Twin, Infect playing Twin, Affinity playing Twin... oh wait, we aren't. So much for that claim.
Even if we don't take the word "literally" literally, your argument here is still nonsensical. What "any old deck" has Twin been put into? There was Living End, sure. And... that's it. And it's worth pointing out that Living Twin doesn't even see that much play anymore; people have largely gone back into the Twin-less versions of Living End (for example, the Living End deck that got Top 8 at GP Porto Alegre was not running the Twin combo). So where are all of these decks that are throwing it into them? Because they don't seem to exist.
Unless you're referring to UWR/RUG/Grixis Twin, which is possibly even sillier because that's not Twin being put into any old deck, that's just Twin splashing a color.
So I think the question we need to be asking is what exactly is the void left by these 2 bans, and what decks are poised to take advantage of that vacuum? In other words, what decks had absolutely horrible matchups against twin, but decent matchups against most everything else?
As far as twin's position;
1 - Twin was the only tier 1 deck that played counterspells. So now the only form of permission that you'll find in tier 1 decks is proactive stuff like Lightning Bolts and Discard.
2 - Twin was the only tier 1 deck that played Blood Moon. Jund/Junk/Burn could technically play it, but for the BGx at least, that's not really that great of an option.
3 - Twin wrecked non-interactive decks. Bloom isn't a thing anymore, but Tron still definitely is. There are also tons of linear combo decks whose power levels are in the tier 2 range that could be pushed up by the lack of twin.
So for the hole created by a twin ban:
Linear combo decks get a little more powerful. Linear decks in general got a lot more powerful.
Decks that really don't want to see blood moon got a little more powerful.
Decks that preyed on Twin kept their relative power level, but will likely be playing more decks that aren't as favorable matchups.
Overall, I have a sinking feeling in my stomach that this is what is going to lead to Boggles being a tier 1 deck. Boggles have hexproof so once they hit they stick usually, and since Twin was the only tier 1 deck that played remands/counterspells in general, the only tier-1-permission that Boggles is up against now is discard and sacrifice effects.
As for the summer bloom ban, I really don't understand the logic. I mean, I do understand it entirely, but it's not like Amulet Bloom was the only deck that wins frequently by turn 2/3. If I was an Infect player, i'd be seriously considering selling my deck right now.
Next banlist prediction: Inkmoth Nexus. With Twin gone, Affinity will surely rise in power. Infect hits that turn 2-3 criteria for WoTC, as does Affinity for that matter, and Inkmoth is in both. Without Inkmoth, Affinity really doesn't have many ways to win turn 3 short of a nut draw, and it would probably ding the consistency of Infect enough to stop it from being a frequent turn 2-3 win. An alternate for just Infect could be Vines of Vastwood or maybe Mutagenic Growth, and Cranial Plating maybe for Affinity.
The ban is going to do exactly what Wotc wants in the coming months. We are going to see different decks winning and in top 8s. Those with local metas dominated by Twin now will have a refreshing change.
Everyone thinks this is the death of blue decks, I think just the opposite. Now that Twin is gone, other blue decks should pop up. Maybe a resurgence of Blue Moon or Jeskai midrange/control decks. Maybe something that has not even bee seen before. Time will tell.
The bans are going to give decks like Eldrazi (whatever build), Lantern control, and some lesser played decks a chance to make it to top tables.
I think Scapesift may be the deck that gets the biggest boost, but again we will see.
I am one who is happy Wotc is not treating Modern like other older formats so this announcement is fine in my eyes. It wont kill the format, and with the recent proxy announcement Legacy and Vintage events are going to be farther and fewer between, leaving Modern as the go to format in most areas.
I'm a long time lurker and posts like these make it look you don't play Modern at all. Playing other U decks was only really possible because they beat Twin; there's so little reason to play them in a big mana based format. I'm not sure what you want Magic to look like besides removing the color blue. Also, WotC just posted that they only care about proxies in sanctioned events.
If banning twin makes the color blue not viable I think that is an indication of a much bigger problem in modern. Thankfully I'm very sure this is not the case.
Mmm, that person brings up an interesting point? What is the point of playing blue in Modern now? I mean white's already pretty poor, so I guess it needed a buddy.
As a Twin player, I understand their mentality completely. I don't like it, but they're exactly right. Why would I play a UR control or tempo shell, when I could just play Twin? Why play Grixis control when I could just play Grixis Twin? Why play Jeskai Tempo when I could play Jeskai Twin? It DOES limit the strategy choices for anything running blue and red as primary colors, because it's usually just objectively better to run Twin than whatever other alternative wincon.
It's worth pointing out this was pretty much the same rationale used for the Wild Nacatl ban.
Now I just have to search out and see what I want to move my Twin deck into. The UR shell is now open to a lot more options, even if those options aren't as good or powerful.
And, much like Wild Nacatl, we'll probably see that the reason those weren't seeing play was because they weren't good or powerful enough.
Yes this has been proven time and time again.
The ban wasnt for the health of the format. It was for "diversity" and often when they ban for diversity, it doesn't help the same shell magically turn into something else thats just as strong. It's meta share will be eaten up by different decks.
Except when pod/BBE were banned we had the flowering of different archetypes/decks.
When Bloodbraid Elf was banned, we didn't have a flowering of different archetypes/decks. We had the same decks, it's just that instead of Jund, you got to choose between different variations of BGx. Which I guess is something, but it's not that much of an improvement. It wasn't until Deathrite Shaman got banned that things improved.
But more importantly, neither Birthing Pod nor Bloodbraid Elf were banned for "diversity" in the way Twin supposedly is (i.e. it's so good that similar decks can't get played!). They were banned because their respective decks were extremely dominant, far more so than Twin was at the time of its banning. Their problem wasn't that they were better versions of decks that didn't see play, it was that they were so good if you couldn't beat them your deck was toast because you'd play them so often. In contrast, for a deck that (according to Wizards of the Coast) pushes out decks that have poor matchups against it, Twin did... surprisingly little of that. Tron is Tier 1, and it's weak against Twin. Amulet Bloom was even worse against Twin and was considered so good it received a banning. Clearly, Twin was not keeping decks it was good against down. When you have two Tier 1 decks that are bad against the deck that's supposedly pushing out decks, perhaps it's time to reconsider how much that deck is actually pushing decks out.
Or, tl;dr, like TheDasuri said, those bans were for the health of the format. Twin was banned for just "diversity." Bans for the health of the format (Pod, Bloodbraid Elf) make sense. Banning to try to just go for artificial diversity does not work as well.
And there you go. Any further justifications, hand wringing or moaning are useless. WE THE PLAYERS can try and justify it, but its pointless. Because Modern is on the Pro Tour, Wizards thinks they need to ban things to shake it up.
How has no one brought up that Affinity is the most successful deck in all of modern? Affinity has won more major tournaments than any deck. Seriously, all throughout this Summer Affinity's top 8 were off the charts. It's also the most played deck in the meta right now
Now That twitter by Aaron says they're pressured to shake things up because of the pro tour? **** YOU, Wizards of the Coast. Modern was supposed to be a non-rotating format, you "shaking things" up is just like standard, my things will dip in value or completely fall off. I just bought Twin on MTGO and am selling the deck, I lost 360 dollars this week on that alone. I'm pretty ******* furious
I understand POD, I understand Treasure Cruise/Dig, and even Bloom was an issue
I truly hope that RG Tron and Affinity dominate the Pro Tour, along with many other linear/combo decks. Knowing our luck, something like Abzan or Zoo will win
There was a quote, but unfortunately I can't find it. It was either by Mark Rosewater or Aaron Forsythe, but the quote stated that there was potential for Counterspell to be reprinted in Standard, as long as it was in the right environment. Whelp, here's hoping that it does get reprinted soon, because that would be the new police card for the format with Twin out of the picture, and that would especially keep Tron in check, preventing it from becoming the baddest most unstoppable deck in the format, which would subsequently incur a swift banning to one of its pieces. I don't want to see it banned. Tron is the only format that people can play with cool cards like Karn and Ugin and big Eldrazi. I want that deck to stay, but it needs to be policed. If it's not policed, something's gunna get banned from it, and then actual riots will start.
Counterspell seems like a good police card to enter the format.
He has since retracted that and said Counterspell is extremely unlikely.
That sucks. If we don't see a better, more "catch-all" type of counterspell, then yeah, I'm not sure what's going to police Tron and to an extent, Affinity.
We need to see that Inquisition of Kozilek style counterspell that's been floating around as an idea here on the forums. UU, Counter target spell with CMC 3 or less. If Black can do it for 1 mana, is it really that bad if Blue can do it for 2 mana? We kinda need something like that imo. It specifically gives blue an answer that stops all the relevant threats in most decks, i.e, Tron's search engine, everything in Affinity lol, Liliana, Goyf, Snap, etc.
That's the kind of thing we need to see for Modern that would make this whole "let's arbitrarily ban Splinter Twin for the lols and the shakeups" a little bit easier to take in. Cuz that would actually give players a reason to play Control. Wizards thinks players will play control now that Twin is gone...I don't see that happening really. I think people are gunna want to play Affinity and Tron now, especially Tron cuz that's the best Control deck in the format.
We have no evidence that suggests Wizards has even done any testing on a Meta without Twin. It seems like they are just "hoping" that players go and play control. And judging from Aaron Forsythe's tweets, it seems this move to ban Twin was just to make things interesting for a PT. So it's really, all things considered, just an arbitrary banning.
Unless of course, they have some cool new Blue counterspells that are being printed really soon. We shall soon see how much of a farce this will turn Modern into depending on what happens in Standard.
Seems most of us agree with this estimate. If I may be so humble, I would like to propose a course of action:
Boycott PT OGW.
The way I see it, if the whole point of the Twin ban was to get more people interested in the PT, the one sensible way of making it known that irrationally banning decks from the format isn't the way to pique our interest is to ignore an event that tries to gain traction through just such means. Hopefully a big enough boycott would force them to reconsider this arbitrary B&R policy, maybe unban some cards that the community generally feels are safe for the format or even abandon the Modern PT project altogether. Anyone of those three outcomes is a win for the Modern community.
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In my dream, the world had suffered a terrible disaster. A black haze shut out the sun, and the darkness was alive with the moans and screams of wounded people. Suddenly, a small light glowed. A candle flickered into life, symbol of hope for millions. A single tiny candle, shining in the ugly dark. I laughed and blew it out.
Many thanks to HotP Studios. Special thanks to DNC for this great sig.
I'm gonna piss people off by saying some of this, and I know a lot of it is probably wrong, but bear with me.
I actually like the directions this recent announcement might be taking the format. I agree with the grounding reasons for the bans, the pre-turn 4 consistency issue and the slot into relevant colors most of the time problems.
As someone who likes blue, I always dreamed of nice unbans, reprints, and new cards for blue, but would then worry about what they could do to twin (or Snapcaster Mage, but I'd like to see that banned as well).
I also like brewing. But if you talked about brewing something with UR, you had better have a good reason why it wasn't playing twin or people will whine at you about it, because Twin was just better than most other things you could try to do. If you wanted to play a combo, you'd get asked, is it as good as twin though, why don't you just play twin instead?
But most of all, I think banning twin is going to lead to a ton of new bans I think would be good...
Twin was a police deck, but it warped the format in the above noted ways, and without the twin police, other decks with broken cards and combos will start destroying the metagame and finally get some well deserved bans, stuff that is broken but 'oh, it's needed to keep twin in check' or 'twin keeps it in check' can now start eating bans.
I'm also hopeful this will help drive down speculation and prices in Modern, as it scares out of the format people who only buy a single competitive deck, thinking of it as an 'investment' into the format, rather than seeing the format like I see it, a place to brew around with older cards that is fairer and more affordable than places like Legacy and Vintage. Keeping up the ban fears helps fight aggressive speculation of cards that might otherwise place in tournaments heavily due to being overpowered.
Ultimately, I want a super-diverse format, with all archetypes present, and no deck displaying more than 4% of the metagame. I want a policed metagame, rather than a self-policing one. One where overly efficient cards that out-perform most of the meta and thus reduce deck diversity and broken cards and overpowered combos and such get banned. One where you could find a fair deck in any 1, 2 or 3 color setup that works. One where there are fun and playable multiple options in all of the following archetypes: control, tempo, midrange, aggro, combo, ramp.
I want a format where the most expensive card (these prices might change with inflation/deflation) is $40 for a new printed only once mythic rare, $20 for a rare of similar printed once status, no more than $3 for an uncommon, and $1 for a common, and the separation of power level between tiers is thin enough that a budget version of a tier 2 deck you could pick up for $30 has potential to win a tournament if well piloted, and all the speculators avoid the format like the plague, for fear of big reprints and bannings, and because the metagame is too diverse to predict dominant decks/cards. A format where I could afford to pick up a new tier 2 budget brew every few months and still have fun and a decent win rate in local Modern events or in MTGO.
Some of the cards I most hope see bans in the long run, now that twin is gone, include in particular, Abrupt Decay, which is poison to blue based combo being playable due to being under-costed and un-counterable (being uncounterable is fine, but not at the same time as being undercosted, IMO), and Tarmogoyf, which slots into way too many green decks too easily, although I think things from ramp and linear decks that twin was policing will eat bans first.
I suspect some of the nearest upcoming ban targets will include some of the harder to stop earlier Tron win-cons and/or Tron consistency aids, and some things from infect, burn, and affinity, like Cranial Plating, Eidolon of the Great Revel, and Inkmoth Nexus.
I think cards like Collected Company being printed around the time of the Pod ban are a good sign for the format, that WotC is learning, and wants to enable archetypes, but only reasonable versions of them, not broken multi-archeptype super-decks.
Wizards doesnt care for the definition of diversity many Modern players embrace. Wizards cares about the rotation of decks like in Standard. Look at standard for how long now, jesus...THAT is what they want.
Wizards has now confirmed how they will treat Modern because of the Pro Tour. What we (many of us) think of as diversity counts for NOTHING.
There was a quote, but unfortunately I can't find it. It was either by Mark Rosewater or Aaron Forsythe, but the quote stated that there was potential for Counterspell to be reprinted in Standard, as long as it was in the right environment. Whelp, here's hoping that it does get reprinted soon, because that would be the new police card for the format with Twin out of the picture, and that would especially keep Tron in check, preventing it from becoming the baddest most unstoppable deck in the format, which would subsequently incur a swift banning to one of its pieces. I don't want to see it banned. Tron is the only format that people can play with cool cards like Karn and Ugin and big Eldrazi. I want that deck to stay, but it needs to be policed. If it's not policed, something's gunna get banned from it, and then actual riots will start.
Counterspell seems like a good police card to enter the format.
He has since retracted that and said Counterspell is extremely unlikely.
I don't think he ever retracted it, just restated what he said before: It could happen, but don't get your hopes up. He's compared it to Lightning Bolt in that it's a card that's so powerful it's unlikely to return but not powerful enough that it's impossible (as show by the fact Lightning Bolt did return for a while).
Doubt they'll do it while Silumgar's Scorn is legal, though.
Seems most of us agree with this estimate. If I may be so humble, I would like to propose a course of action:
Boycott PT OGW.
The way I see it, if the whole point of the Twin ban was to get more people interested in the PT, the one sensible way of making it known that irrationally banning decks from the format isn't the way to pique our interest is to ignore an event that tries to gain traction through just such means. Hopefully a big enough boycott would force them to reconsider this arbitrary B&R policy, maybe unban some cards that the community generally feels are safe for the format or even abandon the Modern PT project altogether. Anyone of those three outcomes is a win for the Modern community.
As much as I'd love a boycott, there's a lot of pro's that really depend on playing in these tournaments, it would hurt them too much financially, or if they write articles for MTG sites, etc. In my heart, I'd love this though
I applaud this decision. I don't play much Modern but reading Twin decklists for the past however many years was so boring. They may bring it back but I am glad to see the metagame shaken up a bit.
I just feel so bad for all the Twin players who put all that money and time into their favorite deck just to have it get banned because of such a superfluous reason. That had to be soul shattering to anyone who just bought into the deck.
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1. (Ravnica Allegiance): You can't keep a good esper control deck down... Or Wilderness Reclamation... or Gates...
2. (War of the Spark): Guys, I know what we need! We need a cycle of really idiotic flavor text victory cards! Jace's Triumph...
3. (War of the Spark): Lets make the format with control have even more control!
I'm gonna piss people off by saying some of this, and I know a lot of it is probably wrong, but bear with me.
I actually like the directions this recent announcement might be taking the format. I agree with the grounding reasons for the bans, the pre-turn 4 consistency issue and the slot into relevant colors most of the time problems.
As someone who likes blue, I always dreamed of nice unbans, reprints, and new cards for blue, but would then worry about what they could do to twin (or Snapcaster Mage, but I'd like to see that banned as well).
I also like brewing. But if you talked about brewing something with UR, you had better have a good reason why it wasn't playing twin or people will whine at you about it, because Twin was just better than most other things you could try to do. If you wanted to play a combo, you'd get asked, is it as good as twin though, why don't you just play twin instead?
But most of all, I think banning twin is going to lead to a ton of new bans I think would be good...
Twin was a police deck, but it warped the format in the above noted ways, and without the twin police, other decks with broken cards and combos will start destroying the metagame and finally get some well deserved bans, stuff that is broken but 'oh, it's needed to keep twin in check' or 'twin keeps it in check' can now start eating bans.
I'm also hopeful this will help drive down speculation and prices in Modern, as it scares out of the format people who only buy a single competitive deck, thinking of it as an 'investment' into the format, rather than seeing the format like I see it, a place to brew around with older cards that is fairer and more affordable than places like Legacy and Vintage. Keeping up the ban fears helps fight aggressive speculation of cards that might otherwise place in tournaments heavily due to being overpowered.
Ultimately, I want a super-diverse format, with all archetypes present, and no deck displaying more than 4% of the metagame. I want a policed metagame, rather than a self-policing one. One where overly efficient cards that out-perform most of the meta and thus reduce deck diversity and broken cards and overpowered combos and such get banned. One where you could find a fair deck in any 1, 2 or 3 color setup that works. One where there are fun and playable multiple options in all of the following archetypes: control, tempo, midrange, aggro, combo, ramp.
I want a format where the most expensive card (these prices might change with inflation/deflation) is $40 for a new printed only once mythic rare, $20 for a rare of similar printed once status, no more than $3 for an uncommon, and $1 for a common, and the separation of power level between tiers is thin enough that a budget version of a tier 2 deck you could pick up for $30 has potential to win a tournament if well piloted, and all the speculators avoid the format like the plague, for fear of big reprints and bannings, and because the metagame is too diverse to predict dominant decks/cards. A format where I could afford to pick up a new tier 2 budget brew every few months and still have fun and a decent win rate in local Modern events or in MTGO.
Some of the cards I most hope see bans in the long run, now that twin is gone, include in particular, Abrupt Decay, which is poison to blue based combo being playable due to being under-costed and un-counterable (being uncounterable is fine, but not at the same time as being undercosted, IMO), and Tarmogoyf, which slots into way too many green decks too easily, although I think things from ramp and linear decks that twin was policing will eat bans first.
I suspect some of the nearest upcoming ban targets will include some of the harder to stop earlier Tron win-cons and/or Tron consistency aids, and some things from infect, burn, and affinity, like Cranial Plating, Eidolon of the Great Revel, and Inkmoth Nexus.
I think cards like Collected Company being printed around the time of the Pod ban are a good sign for the format, that WotC is learning, and wants to enable archetypes, but only reasonable versions of them, not broken multi-archeptype super-decks.
That's not how things work in any meta in any type of game
Even take video games with fighting characters. There is always a BEST, and there are always high shares. There has to be a dominating force in any game
You guys cheering for this are out of your bloody minds. Something will fill the void, and then it gets banned. Then something fills the void, and then it gets banned.
If the format cannot police itself, then your decks will never be safe.
I don't think he ever retracted it, just restated what he said before: It could happen, but don't get your hopes up. He's compared it to Lightning Bolt in that it's a card that's so powerful it's unlikely to return but not powerful enough that it's impossible (as show by the fact Lightning Bolt did return for a while).
Doubt they'll do it while Silumgar's Scorn is legal, though.
He did, but he has since moved away from that position and said it's very unlikely. Saying it was like Lightning Bolt was a couple years ago, the more recent stance is that it's too good for Standard.
Well I'm sure this wrecked most peoples weekends.
At the very least Aaron on twitter is literally being spammed by people regarding it. https://twitter.com/mtgaaron/with_replies
He even tries to casually ask how people are enjoying ogw and no one seems to really care, they just keep ranting about the ban
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In case there's any lingering doubt this is a PT-induced ban:
https://twitter.com/mtgaaron/status/688454987668557824
And, much like Wild Nacatl, we'll probably see that the reason those weren't seeing play was because they weren't good or powerful enough.
Yes this has been proven time and time again.
The ban wasnt for the health of the format. It was for "diversity" and often when they ban for diversity, it doesn't help the same shell magically turn into something else thats just as strong. It's meta share will be eaten up by different decks.
Modern:
UWUW TronUW
Legacy:
WDeath N TaxesW
CEldrazi C
If you couldn't tell I hate greedy blue decks.
Vintage
WWhite Trash
Except when pod/BBE were banned we had the flowering of different archetypes/decks.
Even if we don't take the word "literally" literally, your argument here is still nonsensical. What "any old deck" has Twin been put into? There was Living End, sure. And... that's it. And it's worth pointing out that Living Twin doesn't even see that much play anymore; people have largely gone back into the Twin-less versions of Living End (for example, the Living End deck that got Top 8 at GP Porto Alegre was not running the Twin combo). So where are all of these decks that are throwing it into them? Because they don't seem to exist.
Unless you're referring to UWR/RUG/Grixis Twin, which is possibly even sillier because that's not Twin being put into any old deck, that's just Twin splashing a color.
As far as twin's position;
1 - Twin was the only tier 1 deck that played counterspells. So now the only form of permission that you'll find in tier 1 decks is proactive stuff like Lightning Bolts and Discard.
2 - Twin was the only tier 1 deck that played Blood Moon. Jund/Junk/Burn could technically play it, but for the BGx at least, that's not really that great of an option.
3 - Twin wrecked non-interactive decks. Bloom isn't a thing anymore, but Tron still definitely is. There are also tons of linear combo decks whose power levels are in the tier 2 range that could be pushed up by the lack of twin.
So for the hole created by a twin ban:
Linear combo decks get a little more powerful. Linear decks in general got a lot more powerful.
Decks that really don't want to see blood moon got a little more powerful.
Decks that preyed on Twin kept their relative power level, but will likely be playing more decks that aren't as favorable matchups.
Overall, I have a sinking feeling in my stomach that this is what is going to lead to Boggles being a tier 1 deck. Boggles have hexproof so once they hit they stick usually, and since Twin was the only tier 1 deck that played remands/counterspells in general, the only tier-1-permission that Boggles is up against now is discard and sacrifice effects.
As for the summer bloom ban, I really don't understand the logic. I mean, I do understand it entirely, but it's not like Amulet Bloom was the only deck that wins frequently by turn 2/3. If I was an Infect player, i'd be seriously considering selling my deck right now.
Next banlist prediction: Inkmoth Nexus. With Twin gone, Affinity will surely rise in power. Infect hits that turn 2-3 criteria for WoTC, as does Affinity for that matter, and Inkmoth is in both. Without Inkmoth, Affinity really doesn't have many ways to win turn 3 short of a nut draw, and it would probably ding the consistency of Infect enough to stop it from being a frequent turn 2-3 win. An alternate for just Infect could be Vines of Vastwood or maybe Mutagenic Growth, and Cranial Plating maybe for Affinity.
BG Rock
Modern:
RW Sun & Moon
RBG Dredge
RWG Burn
Legacy:
W Death & Taxes
Mmm, that person brings up an interesting point? What is the point of playing blue in Modern now? I mean white's already pretty poor, so I guess it needed a buddy.
But more importantly, neither Birthing Pod nor Bloodbraid Elf were banned for "diversity" in the way Twin supposedly is (i.e. it's so good that similar decks can't get played!). They were banned because their respective decks were extremely dominant, far more so than Twin was at the time of its banning. Their problem wasn't that they were better versions of decks that didn't see play, it was that they were so good if you couldn't beat them your deck was toast because you'd play them so often. In contrast, for a deck that (according to Wizards of the Coast) pushes out decks that have poor matchups against it, Twin did... surprisingly little of that. Tron is Tier 1, and it's weak against Twin. Amulet Bloom was even worse against Twin and was considered so good it received a banning. Clearly, Twin was not keeping decks it was good against down. When you have two Tier 1 decks that are bad against the deck that's supposedly pushing out decks, perhaps it's time to reconsider how much that deck is actually pushing decks out.
Or, tl;dr, like TheDasuri said, those bans were for the health of the format. Twin was banned for just "diversity." Bans for the health of the format (Pod, Bloodbraid Elf) make sense. Banning to try to just go for artificial diversity does not work as well.
And there you go. Any further justifications, hand wringing or moaning are useless. WE THE PLAYERS can try and justify it, but its pointless. Because Modern is on the Pro Tour, Wizards thinks they need to ban things to shake it up.
Its right there.
I will NOT invest in this format further.
Spirits
Now That twitter by Aaron says they're pressured to shake things up because of the pro tour? **** YOU, Wizards of the Coast. Modern was supposed to be a non-rotating format, you "shaking things" up is just like standard, my things will dip in value or completely fall off. I just bought Twin on MTGO and am selling the deck, I lost 360 dollars this week on that alone. I'm pretty ******* furious
I understand POD, I understand Treasure Cruise/Dig, and even Bloom was an issue
I truly hope that RG Tron and Affinity dominate the Pro Tour, along with many other linear/combo decks. Knowing our luck, something like Abzan or Zoo will win
That sucks. If we don't see a better, more "catch-all" type of counterspell, then yeah, I'm not sure what's going to police Tron and to an extent, Affinity.
We need to see that Inquisition of Kozilek style counterspell that's been floating around as an idea here on the forums. UU, Counter target spell with CMC 3 or less. If Black can do it for 1 mana, is it really that bad if Blue can do it for 2 mana? We kinda need something like that imo. It specifically gives blue an answer that stops all the relevant threats in most decks, i.e, Tron's search engine, everything in Affinity lol, Liliana, Goyf, Snap, etc.
That's the kind of thing we need to see for Modern that would make this whole "let's arbitrarily ban Splinter Twin for the lols and the shakeups" a little bit easier to take in. Cuz that would actually give players a reason to play Control. Wizards thinks players will play control now that Twin is gone...I don't see that happening really. I think people are gunna want to play Affinity and Tron now, especially Tron cuz that's the best Control deck in the format.
We have no evidence that suggests Wizards has even done any testing on a Meta without Twin. It seems like they are just "hoping" that players go and play control. And judging from Aaron Forsythe's tweets, it seems this move to ban Twin was just to make things interesting for a PT. So it's really, all things considered, just an arbitrary banning.
Unless of course, they have some cool new Blue counterspells that are being printed really soon. We shall soon see how much of a farce this will turn Modern into depending on what happens in Standard.
I still cannot believe they didn't unban a major blue card. Control will NOT be a thing with all these hyper-aggro/linear combo decks dominating
Seems most of us agree with this estimate. If I may be so humble, I would like to propose a course of action:
Boycott PT OGW.
The way I see it, if the whole point of the Twin ban was to get more people interested in the PT, the one sensible way of making it known that irrationally banning decks from the format isn't the way to pique our interest is to ignore an event that tries to gain traction through just such means. Hopefully a big enough boycott would force them to reconsider this arbitrary B&R policy, maybe unban some cards that the community generally feels are safe for the format or even abandon the Modern PT project altogether. Anyone of those three outcomes is a win for the Modern community.
Many thanks to HotP Studios. Special thanks to DNC for this great sig.
I actually like the directions this recent announcement might be taking the format. I agree with the grounding reasons for the bans, the pre-turn 4 consistency issue and the slot into relevant colors most of the time problems.
As someone who likes blue, I always dreamed of nice unbans, reprints, and new cards for blue, but would then worry about what they could do to twin (or Snapcaster Mage, but I'd like to see that banned as well).
I also like brewing. But if you talked about brewing something with UR, you had better have a good reason why it wasn't playing twin or people will whine at you about it, because Twin was just better than most other things you could try to do. If you wanted to play a combo, you'd get asked, is it as good as twin though, why don't you just play twin instead?
But most of all, I think banning twin is going to lead to a ton of new bans I think would be good...
Twin was a police deck, but it warped the format in the above noted ways, and without the twin police, other decks with broken cards and combos will start destroying the metagame and finally get some well deserved bans, stuff that is broken but 'oh, it's needed to keep twin in check' or 'twin keeps it in check' can now start eating bans.
I'm also hopeful this will help drive down speculation and prices in Modern, as it scares out of the format people who only buy a single competitive deck, thinking of it as an 'investment' into the format, rather than seeing the format like I see it, a place to brew around with older cards that is fairer and more affordable than places like Legacy and Vintage. Keeping up the ban fears helps fight aggressive speculation of cards that might otherwise place in tournaments heavily due to being overpowered.
Ultimately, I want a super-diverse format, with all archetypes present, and no deck displaying more than 4% of the metagame. I want a policed metagame, rather than a self-policing one. One where overly efficient cards that out-perform most of the meta and thus reduce deck diversity and broken cards and overpowered combos and such get banned. One where you could find a fair deck in any 1, 2 or 3 color setup that works. One where there are fun and playable multiple options in all of the following archetypes: control, tempo, midrange, aggro, combo, ramp.
I want a format where the most expensive card (these prices might change with inflation/deflation) is $40 for a new printed only once mythic rare, $20 for a rare of similar printed once status, no more than $3 for an uncommon, and $1 for a common, and the separation of power level between tiers is thin enough that a budget version of a tier 2 deck you could pick up for $30 has potential to win a tournament if well piloted, and all the speculators avoid the format like the plague, for fear of big reprints and bannings, and because the metagame is too diverse to predict dominant decks/cards. A format where I could afford to pick up a new tier 2 budget brew every few months and still have fun and a decent win rate in local Modern events or in MTGO.
Some of the cards I most hope see bans in the long run, now that twin is gone, include in particular, Abrupt Decay, which is poison to blue based combo being playable due to being under-costed and un-counterable (being uncounterable is fine, but not at the same time as being undercosted, IMO), and Tarmogoyf, which slots into way too many green decks too easily, although I think things from ramp and linear decks that twin was policing will eat bans first.
I suspect some of the nearest upcoming ban targets will include some of the harder to stop earlier Tron win-cons and/or Tron consistency aids, and some things from infect, burn, and affinity, like Cranial Plating, Eidolon of the Great Revel, and Inkmoth Nexus.
I think cards like Collected Company being printed around the time of the Pod ban are a good sign for the format, that WotC is learning, and wants to enable archetypes, but only reasonable versions of them, not broken multi-archeptype super-decks.
https://twitter.com/mtgaaron/status/688461339027607552
Wizards has now confirmed how they will treat Modern because of the Pro Tour. What we (many of us) think of as diversity counts for NOTHING.
Embrace a degenerate format until the next bans.
Spirits
Doubt they'll do it while Silumgar's Scorn is legal, though.
Spirits
As much as I'd love a boycott, there's a lot of pro's that really depend on playing in these tournaments, it would hurt them too much financially, or if they write articles for MTG sites, etc. In my heart, I'd love this though
1. (Ravnica Allegiance): You can't keep a good esper control deck down... Or Wilderness Reclamation... or Gates...
2. (War of the Spark): Guys, I know what we need! We need a cycle of really idiotic flavor text victory cards! Jace's Triumph...
3. (War of the Spark): Lets make the format with control have even more control!
That's not how things work in any meta in any type of game
Even take video games with fighting characters. There is always a BEST, and there are always high shares. There has to be a dominating force in any game
If the format cannot police itself, then your decks will never be safe.
Enjoy?
Spirits
He did, but he has since moved away from that position and said it's very unlikely. Saying it was like Lightning Bolt was a couple years ago, the more recent stance is that it's too good for Standard.
At the very least Aaron on twitter is literally being spammed by people regarding it.
https://twitter.com/mtgaaron/with_replies
He even tries to casually ask how people are enjoying ogw and no one seems to really care, they just keep ranting about the ban