Due to the increased usage of burn and other aggressive strategies Mr. Greatness Dark Confidant has not seen the type of play that he usually does. Is this the end for Bob? Will he return if the aggro decks lessen?
Private Mod Note
():
Rollback Post to RevisionRollBack
On mtgsalvation people don't want to discuss ideas, so I give people something else to discuss: my controversial opinions.
Due to the increased usage of burn and other aggressive strategies Mr. Greatness Dark Confidant has not seen the type of play that he usually does. Is this the end for Bob? Will he return if the aggro decks lessen?
Don't count him out. The only reason why he has fallen is because of the Abzan strategy of Rhino and Tasigur.If he was in the strategy they would die a turn earlier. You will see more decks of him, but only when he drops greatly in price. I've always valued him as a $20 creature at most yet he is always at ridiculous prices.
Private Mod Note
():
Rollback Post to RevisionRollBack
Modern: U Merfolk | GR Tron | WUR Jeskai Control | WBG Abzan Company
In some metagames that are absent of Burn, Dark Confidant will shine. I know it's hard to believe that a deck with a 9% share can be nearly absent from some metagames, but it happens. He is still an amazing card and always will be.
But in an unknown metagame, Dark Confidant will always be a fairly risky card because people consider Burn easy to build, easy and consistent to win with, and easy to play (which is definitely not true, but usually seen this way). But if you think about a deck that you may play and the decks that you have to dodge to do well, trying to dodge Burn may not be the toughest thing to do.
Private Mod Note
():
Rollback Post to RevisionRollBack
Legacy - Sneak Show, BR Reanimator, Miracles, UW Stoneblade
Premodern - Trix, RecSur, Enchantress, Reanimator, Elves https://www.facebook.com/groups/PremodernUSA/ Modern - Neobrand, Hogaak Vine, Elves
Standard - Mono Red (6-2 and 5-3 in 2 McQ)
Draft - (I wish I had more time for limited...)
Commander - Norin the Wary, Grimgrin, Adun Oakenshield (taking forever to build) (dead format for me)
In some metagames that are absent of Burn, Dark Confidant will shine. I know it's hard to believe that a deck with a 9% share can be nearly absent from some metagames, but it happens. He is still an amazing card and always will be.
But in an unknown metagame, Dark Confidant will always be a fairly risky card because people consider Burn easy to build, easy and consistent to win with, and easy to play (which is definitely not true, but usually seen this way). But if you think about a deck that you may play and the decks that you have to dodge to do well, trying to dodge Burn may not be the toughest thing to do.
Sure but even on MTGO people play with Dark Confidant in Jund and Burn is most played deck there.
Context is everything. Dark Confidant is just worse in a higher-curve deck like Abzan. A playset of Lingering Souls, Liliana of the Veil and Siege Rhino along with a more painful mana-base will make sure that you take a ton of damage from him.
Jund doesn't have that problem to the same extent.
I think the larger issue is that Dark Confidant is at it's best when there are no other creatures being played (as you'll then also see fewer removal spells, making Bob more likely to draw you cards)... and modern is getting more, not less, creature heavy as time passes.
There's also the issue that one of the strenghts of BGx is that their creatures are all bolt-proof. Unless your opponent is playing 40 of them and they're pointed at your face, Junk really doesn't care about the card. Bob undermines that strenght.
That's not to say he's bad; he's still one of the best creatures ever printed. But it is going to take a large change in the meta (less burn, fewer removal spells) for him to shine again.
Yes, this is a good point. Junk does have a higher curve than Jund. Still if I played in a metagame without Burn or other quick Aggro deck, I personally would play some Dark Confidant in Junk. Maybe it's wrong though; I'm not the Junk expert by any means, but I am very used to playing decks that can do gobs of damage to oneself.
Private Mod Note
():
Rollback Post to RevisionRollBack
Legacy - Sneak Show, BR Reanimator, Miracles, UW Stoneblade
Premodern - Trix, RecSur, Enchantress, Reanimator, Elves https://www.facebook.com/groups/PremodernUSA/ Modern - Neobrand, Hogaak Vine, Elves
Standard - Mono Red (6-2 and 5-3 in 2 McQ)
Draft - (I wish I had more time for limited...)
Commander - Norin the Wary, Grimgrin, Adun Oakenshield (taking forever to build) (dead format for me)
Eh, meta shifts happen. Since his printing Bob has been the best card advantage engine on a body in magic. That will continue to be the case. Time will tell but I think it's far to early to religate Bob to the bargain bin.
Private Mod Note
():
Rollback Post to RevisionRollBack
Modern GB Rock U Flooding Merfolk RUG Delver Midrange WU Monks UW Tempo Geist GW Bogle GW Liege UR Tron B Vampires
Affinity Legacy
Fish
Goblins
Burn
Reanimator
Dredge
Affinity EDH W Akroma GBW Ghave BRU Thrax GR Ruric I advocate for the elimination of the combo archetype in Modern. I believe it is degenerate and unfun by its very nature and will always limit design space and cause unnecessary bans.
Eh, meta shifts happen. Since his printing Bob has been the best card advantage engine on a body in magic. That will continue to be the case. Time will tell but I think it's far to early to religate Bob to the bargain bin.
I don't think that he will ever be that bad. I do find it odd that Dark Confidant and Vendilion Clique haven't been very good as of late.
Private Mod Note
():
Rollback Post to RevisionRollBack
On mtgsalvation people don't want to discuss ideas, so I give people something else to discuss: my controversial opinions.
Eh, meta shifts happen. Since his printing Bob has been the best card advantage engine on a body in magic. That will continue to be the case. Time will tell but I think it's far to early to religate Bob to the bargain bin.
I don't think that he will ever be that bad. I do find it odd that Dark Confidant and Vendilion Clique haven't been very good as of late.
Well Vendilion Clique kinda sucks against Lingering Souls and the ETB isn't so good that you can justify playing more of them.
It's great against solitaire Combo decks where it's disruption and clock packed into one. But you will notice that the meta doesn't really have those kind of decks.
I usually don't play tasigur/murderous cut in my bg/x decks, so I usually still play him. Even against burn he at least block things...and if they don't attack you're probably okay with that. Of course, in games 2 and 3 you just side him out. For aggro strategies, bob is amazing. The only reason you don't see him in grixis delver is because they employ tasigur and murderous cut which hedge out the deck's weakness of being comprised of mostly X/1's.
... because people consider Burn easy to build, easy and consistent to win with, and easy to play (which is definitely not true, but usually seen this way).
Completely off topic but I must take the bait on this one. I'm sorry, but it definitely is true. Not going to go into reasons here, but I adamantly believe that burn is all of the above.
He is amazing in combo heavy metas. At my local game shop, where Splinter Twin, Infect and friends reign supreme, I would not dare to play a deck without him. Incidentally, these matchups are also where Siege Rhino and Tasigur are at their worst, thus they are not an auto-includes. The high mana cost of these anti-aggro, anti-midrange cards is the other thing keeping Bob back. If the general meta shifts more towards combo he will make a comeback.
Speculation: The reason for the popularity of Burn & Co. is price. It is easy to buy into these decks, they are competitive, and it does not require too much practice to play them reasonably well. Thus, these decks are more popular than you would expect from a sheer perspective of power-level. If decks like Splinter Twin became cheaper to build Dark Confidant would rise again. Maybe Modern Masters 2 will be enough to do it (though I do not expect it, as Twin is a mythic). Infect will probably rise in popularity as the super-expensive cards will be reprinted soon. Bob is a good turn 2 play against Infect, after T1 Thoughseize to make sure you won't die immediately.
I wouldn't be so sure of Infects share rising. Not only has it been gradually dropping for a while already, Abzan Company decks are on the rise and they are known for running maindeck Melira, Sylvok Outcast as some number of Spellskites in the main and side with the ability to search them up.
Something to keep in mind.
I agree with your post though. Price is definitely a reason why these decks see so much play. How would the meta look like if Abzan would be only 700-800 to build? Definitely not as it is looking now that's for sure.
Modern: RW R/W Burn WB B/W TokensXU MonuU Tron // UWX UW Tron R GoblinsW Soul SistersRWG Small ZooWUR WUR Geist/Control/Kiki-Resto Combo/NahiriUR Splinter Twin (90% Japanese)/ Grixis TwinRUB UR Delver / Grixis Delver UR Blue MoonBWU Ad NauseamWDeath and TaxesRUB Grixis ControlUMerfolksX Affinity RGB Living End UR Storm/PiF Combo RGX R/G TRON GWU Bant Eldrazi BW Eldrazi and Taxes RUBGoryos Vengeance UB Faeries Legacy:BRx Renimator Playing right now:Standard: Jeskai Control Modern; GoryosVengeance/UBFaeries/Affinity Legacy: BRx Reanimator Pauper: UR Drake (banned) Commander: Merieke Ri Berit Esper
I love good ole bobby, he's a card advantage engine that started the cycle of overpowered 2 drops. While he has dropped off the radar for now, its just due to the delve cards within the same decks he would rise in. I see him in a strong jund build every now and then, highest cmc is hunt master of the fells at 4, so he's good there. But until burn dies down, bob won't be seeing much play.
If decks like Splinter Twin became cheaper to build Dark Confidant would rise again. Maybe Modern Masters 2 will be enough to do it (though I do not expect it, as Twin is a mythic).
But Splinter Twin is a rare in MM2015? I do believe the price will definitely drop some, leading to more and more players playing the deck.
Private Mod Note
():
Rollback Post to RevisionRollBack
Modern Decks: B/W Tokens, Living End, R/W Lockdown (a.k.a. PillowFort)
Working on:G/W Hatebears, Mono Blue Tron, U/R Delver
Quote from TheDasuri:
First they came for the ghosts of past standards like Jace the Mindsculptor and artifact lands
And I did not speak out
Because I was not a filthy spike
Then they came for the cantrips
And I did not speak out
Because I was not a filthy blue player
Then they came for the Bloodbraid Elves
And I did not speak out
Because I was not a filthy midrange player
Then they came for the Seething Song
And I did not speak out
Because I was not a filthy combo player
Then they came for me
And there was no one left
I love good ole bobby, he's a card advantage engine that started the cycle of overpowered 2 drops. While he has dropped off the radar for now, its just due to the delve cards within the same decks he would rise in. I see him in a strong jund build every now and then, highest cmc is hunt master of the fells at 4, so he's good there. But until burn dies down, bob won't be seeing much play.
Delve is when I noticed Bob taper off, especially when Treasure Cruise rocked the game. I'm surprised he didn't bounce back after their banning.
I've been curious if Bob's being ousted in the circle of broken two drops because the rest of cycle sees abundant play in the formats where they're legally allowed to shine (which on a slight tangent, has also confirmed Young Pyromancer's place in the cycle on the grounds of sees so much play).
Private Mod Note
():
Rollback Post to RevisionRollBack
Vive, vale. Siquid novisti rectius istis,
candidus inperti; si nil, his utere mecum.
~~~~~
I feel young peezy is strong enough to be considered a member since he sees extensive vintage play, and bob is still worthy of the mantle of overpowered. A resolved bob that goes unanswered just wins games, just like snapcaster mage, stoneforge mystic, tarmogoyf, and young pyromancer. Its just the metagame either kills him on sight, or uses his lifeloss to their advantage.
I've won a ton of games with IOK, TS, Bob, Command, Bob. And yes there's games where you basically have to 'take' 3-4 removal spells to get him to stick and even then he is WORTH it.
The rumors of Bob's demise are greatly exaggerated.
According to mtggoldfish he's not even in the top 50 most popular creatures in Modern, and Deadshot Minotaur is more popular.
Let's remember that mtgogoldfish only looks at 4-0 decks and only looks at publicly published dailies. This is just a tiny subset of the metagame, so I wouldn't take any of their statistics (least of all their most-played cards) very seriously.
There are a few factors keeping Bob down. The big one is Burn, which should surprise absolutely no one and has been mentioned more than a few times. It's no coincidence that as Burn's share jumped since last summer, Bob's has declined (yeah yeah yeah, correlation and causation, but this is definitely one of the big 2-3 reasons why he's out of fashion).
The second one is Tasigur/Rhino. Neither card synergizes particularly well with Bob (Tas is just a disaster with him), and both cards incentivize players away from the traditional Jund colors where Bob is often strongest. We are seeing less of this these days as Jund keeps proving that you don't need either card to succeed. This change is partly because Bolt is way better than Path in this metagame, and partly because Souls is worse now than it was in February.
The third one, which is less of a factor now but is becoming more of a factor, is Bolt. The more you see Bolt, the less you see Bob. That's because Bolt is the only GOOD removal spell in Modern that trades with Bob under parity (as opposed to Decay/Terminate, which cost 2 to kill a 2 drop, or Path/Dismember, which trade resources for the kill). Bolt alone is never enough to keep Bob down, as evidenced by Bob's use during an earlier era of Jund and UWR Control prevalence. But Bolt's presence when combined with other factors can be more than enough to keep Bob away. Also, as an extension to this one, cheap and efficient Burn-based decks are also a disaster for Bob. Last season, UR Delver was running Electrolyze, Bolt, Forked Bolt, and a host of other cheap red spells that would happily eat Bob at a profit. Those kinds of decks also cause Bob to struggle.
I think Bob will always be a powerful card. If burn ever drops back to tier two, you will see him come back with a vengeance. I njst want him to stay cheap a little while longer so I can pick up a playset.
Decks I'm playing in Modern right now:
URB Grixis Reveler (http://www.mtgvault.com/supast4r7/decks/modern-grixis-reveler/)
UB Faeries (http://www.mtgvault.com/supast4r7/decks/ub-fae-2/)
UW Azorious Control (http://www.mtgvault.com/supast4r7/decks/modern-ojutai-control-2/)
Don't count him out. The only reason why he has fallen is because of the Abzan strategy of Rhino and Tasigur.If he was in the strategy they would die a turn earlier. You will see more decks of him, but only when he drops greatly in price. I've always valued him as a $20 creature at most yet he is always at ridiculous prices.
U Merfolk | GR Tron | WUR Jeskai Control | WBG Abzan Company
EDH:
G Ezuri, Renegade Leader, Fighting for Rivendell
WU Brago, King Eternal, Long Live the King
WUBRG Scion of the Ur-Dragon, Worship the Dragon
But in an unknown metagame, Dark Confidant will always be a fairly risky card because people consider Burn easy to build, easy and consistent to win with, and easy to play (which is definitely not true, but usually seen this way). But if you think about a deck that you may play and the decks that you have to dodge to do well, trying to dodge Burn may not be the toughest thing to do.
Premodern - Trix, RecSur, Enchantress, Reanimator, Elves https://www.facebook.com/groups/PremodernUSA/
Modern - Neobrand, Hogaak Vine, Elves
Standard - Mono Red (6-2 and 5-3 in 2 McQ)
Draft - (I wish I had more time for limited...)
Commander -
Norin the Wary, Grimgrin, Adun Oakenshield (taking forever to build)(dead format for me)Sure but even on MTGO people play with Dark Confidant in Jund and Burn is most played deck there.
Context is everything. Dark Confidant is just worse in a higher-curve deck like Abzan. A playset of Lingering Souls, Liliana of the Veil and Siege Rhino along with a more painful mana-base will make sure that you take a ton of damage from him.
Jund doesn't have that problem to the same extent.
There's also the issue that one of the strenghts of BGx is that their creatures are all bolt-proof. Unless your opponent is playing 40 of them and they're pointed at your face, Junk really doesn't care about the card. Bob undermines that strenght.
That's not to say he's bad; he's still one of the best creatures ever printed. But it is going to take a large change in the meta (less burn, fewer removal spells) for him to shine again.
Premodern - Trix, RecSur, Enchantress, Reanimator, Elves https://www.facebook.com/groups/PremodernUSA/
Modern - Neobrand, Hogaak Vine, Elves
Standard - Mono Red (6-2 and 5-3 in 2 McQ)
Draft - (I wish I had more time for limited...)
Commander -
Norin the Wary, Grimgrin, Adun Oakenshield (taking forever to build)(dead format for me)GB Rock
U Flooding Merfolk
RUG Delver Midrange
WU Monks
UW Tempo Geist
GW Bogle
GW Liege
UR Tron
B Vampires
Affinity
Legacy
Fish
Goblins
Burn
Reanimator
Dredge
Affinity
EDH
W Akroma
GBW Ghave
BRU Thrax
GR Ruric
I advocate for the elimination of the combo archetype in Modern. I believe it is degenerate and unfun by its very nature and will always limit design space and cause unnecessary bans.
I don't think that he will ever be that bad. I do find it odd that Dark Confidant and Vendilion Clique haven't been very good as of late.
Decks I'm playing in Modern right now:
URB Grixis Reveler (http://www.mtgvault.com/supast4r7/decks/modern-grixis-reveler/)
UB Faeries (http://www.mtgvault.com/supast4r7/decks/ub-fae-2/)
UW Azorious Control (http://www.mtgvault.com/supast4r7/decks/modern-ojutai-control-2/)
Well Vendilion Clique kinda sucks against Lingering Souls and the ETB isn't so good that you can justify playing more of them.
It's great against solitaire Combo decks where it's disruption and clock packed into one. But you will notice that the meta doesn't really have those kind of decks.
Completely off topic but I must take the bait on this one. I'm sorry, but it definitely is true. Not going to go into reasons here, but I adamantly believe that burn is all of the above.
Modern Junk Primer
Legacy ANT Primer
L1 Judge
Standard: lol no
Modern: BG/x, UR/x, Burn, Merfolk, Zoo, Storm
Legacy: Shardless BUG, Delver (BUG, RUG, Grixis), Landstill, Depths Combo, Merfolk
Vintage: Dark Times, BUG Fish, Merfolk
EDH: Teysa, Orzhov Scion / Krenko, Mob Boss / Stonebrow, Krosan Hero
According to mtggoldfish he's not even in the top 50 most popular creatures in Modern, and Deadshot Minotaur is more popular.
Modern : Huh?
EDH : UBGW Thrasios / Tymna Combo UBGW // GRW Mayael Big Stuff GRW // GU Edric Timewalkers GU
I wouldn't be so sure of Infects share rising. Not only has it been gradually dropping for a while already, Abzan Company decks are on the rise and they are known for running maindeck Melira, Sylvok Outcast as some number of Spellskites in the main and side with the ability to search them up.
Something to keep in mind.
I agree with your post though. Price is definitely a reason why these decks see so much play. How would the meta look like if Abzan would be only 700-800 to build? Definitely not as it is looking now that's for sure.
RW R/W Burn WB B/W TokensXU MonuU Tron // UWX UW Tron
R GoblinsW Soul SistersRWG Small ZooWUR WUR Geist/Control/Kiki-Resto Combo/NahiriUR Splinter Twin (90% Japanese)/ Grixis TwinRUB UR Delver / Grixis Delver UR Blue MoonBWU Ad NauseamWDeath and TaxesRUB Grixis ControlUMerfolksX Affinity RGB Living End UR Storm/PiF Combo RGX R/G TRON GWU Bant Eldrazi BW Eldrazi and Taxes RUBGoryos Vengeance UB Faeries
Legacy:BRx Renimator
Playing right now: Standard: Jeskai Control Modern; GoryosVengeance/UBFaeries/Affinity Legacy: BRx Reanimator Pauper: UR Drake (banned) Commander: Merieke Ri Berit Esper
On my tombstone, please write "Now his body fuels the Treasure Cruise"
Or you could Kommand him back...
Check out my Youtube Page for online Magic Content!
https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCcq-a5rTSNclFCS2o4_lVFw
Modern:
BURGrixis DelverRUB
URUR DelverRU
URBlue MoonRU
RIPURUR TwinRURIP
Legacy:
URBGrixis DelverBRU
RUBGrixis PyromancerRUB
Commander:
URMelek, Izzet ParagonRU
URBJeleva, Nephalia's ScourgeRUB
But Splinter Twin is a rare in MM2015? I do believe the price will definitely drop some, leading to more and more players playing the deck.
Working on:G/W Hatebears, Mono Blue Tron, U/R Delver
Quote from TheDasuri:
First they came for the ghosts of past standards like Jace the Mindsculptor and artifact lands
And I did not speak out
Because I was not a filthy spike
Then they came for the cantrips
And I did not speak out
Because I was not a filthy blue player
Then they came for the Bloodbraid Elves
And I did not speak out
Because I was not a filthy midrange player
Then they came for the Seething Song
And I did not speak out
Because I was not a filthy combo player
Then they came for me
And there was no one left
I've been curious if Bob's being ousted in the circle of broken two drops because the rest of cycle sees abundant play in the formats where they're legally allowed to shine (which on a slight tangent, has also confirmed Young Pyromancer's place in the cycle on the grounds of sees so much play).
candidus inperti; si nil, his utere mecum.
~~~~~
On my tombstone, please write "Now his body fuels the Treasure Cruise"
Or you could Kommand him back...
Check out my Youtube Page for online Magic Content!
https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCcq-a5rTSNclFCS2o4_lVFw
Modern:
BURGrixis DelverRUB
URUR DelverRU
URBlue MoonRU
RIPURUR TwinRURIP
Legacy:
URBGrixis DelverBRU
RUBGrixis PyromancerRUB
Commander:
URMelek, Izzet ParagonRU
URBJeleva, Nephalia's ScourgeRUB
I've won a ton of games with IOK, TS, Bob, Command, Bob. And yes there's games where you basically have to 'take' 3-4 removal spells to get him to stick and even then he is WORTH it.
Let's remember that mtgogoldfish only looks at 4-0 decks and only looks at publicly published dailies. This is just a tiny subset of the metagame, so I wouldn't take any of their statistics (least of all their most-played cards) very seriously.
There are a few factors keeping Bob down. The big one is Burn, which should surprise absolutely no one and has been mentioned more than a few times. It's no coincidence that as Burn's share jumped since last summer, Bob's has declined (yeah yeah yeah, correlation and causation, but this is definitely one of the big 2-3 reasons why he's out of fashion).
The second one is Tasigur/Rhino. Neither card synergizes particularly well with Bob (Tas is just a disaster with him), and both cards incentivize players away from the traditional Jund colors where Bob is often strongest. We are seeing less of this these days as Jund keeps proving that you don't need either card to succeed. This change is partly because Bolt is way better than Path in this metagame, and partly because Souls is worse now than it was in February.
The third one, which is less of a factor now but is becoming more of a factor, is Bolt. The more you see Bolt, the less you see Bob. That's because Bolt is the only GOOD removal spell in Modern that trades with Bob under parity (as opposed to Decay/Terminate, which cost 2 to kill a 2 drop, or Path/Dismember, which trade resources for the kill). Bolt alone is never enough to keep Bob down, as evidenced by Bob's use during an earlier era of Jund and UWR Control prevalence. But Bolt's presence when combined with other factors can be more than enough to keep Bob away. Also, as an extension to this one, cheap and efficient Burn-based decks are also a disaster for Bob. Last season, UR Delver was running Electrolyze, Bolt, Forked Bolt, and a host of other cheap red spells that would happily eat Bob at a profit. Those kinds of decks also cause Bob to struggle.
Cheeri0sXWU
Reid Duke's Level One
Who's the Beatdown
Alt+0198=Æ