So I feel you guys in general know more about the format than me. I'd like to here what you think about this:
What would happen if Umezawa's Jitte got unbanned? I love the card very much and find it fun to play with. It doesn't have Stoneforge Mystic to tutor for it. Would that bring it to a more balanced level? Without consistent ways to tutor for it, you'd have to play more copies than the normal 1-off in legacy, which could make it a poor draw when you already have one.
I'm not suggesting it come off the ban list mind you. I just adore the Jitte and I want to know what you guys think might happen if it came off. Speculate with me!
Personally I feel it's fine in this format with all the other broken cards and decks, I think the reason no one wants it around is because once it lands it acts as a Swiss Army knife and it makes aggro decks race to get it online. It's a good card, it generates value and provides interesting board states but is it really any more broken than any of the current swords or even Batterskull? I don't think so. I honestly don't think I would run it over Skull in most situations except in Zoo or Hatebears type decks.
I think it would be a safe unban but I think it's one of the cards that could be broken in a certain meta.
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Active Modern Decks
U Tron GW Bogles RG Loam UR Blue Breach RBU Grixis Goryo BRU Grixis Delver GBR Jund GBW Junk
So I feel you guys in general know more about the format than me. I'd like to here what you think about this:
What would happen if Umezawa's Jitte got unbanned? I love the card very much and find it fun to play with. It doesn't have Stoneforge Mystic to tutor for it. Would that bring it to a more balanced level? Without consistent ways to tutor for it, you'd have to play more copies than the normal 1-off in legacy, which could make it a poor draw when you already have one.
I'm not suggesting it come off the ban list mind you. I just adore the Jitte and I want to know what you guys think might happen if it came off. Speculate with me!
It would probably be fine in the right meta but right now midrange is plenty good enough already. Jitte would just make midrange decks even better than they need to be. There are also about 10 cards I would unban before I would unban Jitte
So, Junk is at 16% at the moment, so if it will stay like that for the next 3 months it will deserve a ban, right? I mean, ur and pod got it, why bgx wouldn't? Would be unfair! And burn is 10% so that's 26% of the meta! So i think it deserves a preventive ban ala dig through time right?
Yea im trolling
So, Junk is at 16% at the moment, so if it will stay like that for the next 3 months it will deserve a ban, right? I mean, ur and pod got it, why bgx wouldn't? Would be unfair! And burn is 10% so that's 26% of the meta! So i think it deserves a preventive ban ala dig through time right?
Yea im trolling
I'd be okay with a Lightning Bolt Ban if they printed this at the same time (with a different name of course):
Slow BoltR Sorcery
Slow Bolt deals 3 damage to target creature or player.
Basically, just take instant speed out of the equation and Bolt becomes a lot more fair for 1 cmc, and opens up some other 1 cmc burn spells to see more play, like Flame Slash if you are playing it for creature removal purposes, while leaving this new option for regular Burn decks, just with less options for when to play it.
Doing that would probably completely transform the format, due to screwing up the 'bolt test' issue, it would open up a lot more creatures to potential play.
I don't think WotC would do that of course, Lightning Bolt is super-iconic, but if they banned Goyf as well, it would indicate nothing is 'sacred' in Modern, and they could probably get away with such a transformative ban, although they'd piss off a ton of people who bought lots of Modern Masters 1 for Goyfs, or spent a lot on Goyfs after it was printed in Modern Masters 1, under the assumption that being in Modern Masters meant it was now a sacred cow of the format that was immune to bans, despite being dangerously above curve and overly efficient/resilient.
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i dont want a warning so ill not going to say a lot about my thoughts on brainstorm in modern, but i think that is a good card against the b/g shell and it wont broke anything (no more turn 3 decks or anything like that) if anyone wants to keep talking about this pm me
i really dont think that there's a solution to modern right now, because they wont ban something like liliana, to really hurt the best strategy in the format (they keep banning other strategies when bg x start to lose)
Personally I feel it's fine in this format with all the other broken cards and decks, I think the reason no one wants it around is because once it lands it acts as a Swiss Army knife and it makes aggro decks race to get it online. It's a good card, it generates value and provides interesting board states but is it really any more broken than any of the current swords or even Batterskull? I don't think so. I honestly don't think I would run it over Skull in most situations except in Zoo or Hatebears type decks.
I think it would be a safe unban but I think it's one of the cards that could be broken in a certain meta.
Writing this makes you look silly and makes people to not take you seriously.
Jitte is one of those obvious not to unban cards that no one talks about in here because it's so obvious it's better banned, specially when they are constantly resetting the power level back to the intended level via bans.
i dont want a warning so ill not going to say a lot about my thoughts on brainstorm in modern, but i think that is a good card against the b/g shell and it wont broke anything (no more turn 3 decks or anything like that) if anyone wants to keep talking about this pm me
i really dont think that there's a solution to modern right now, because they wont ban something like liliana, to really hurt the best strategy in the format (they keep banning other strategies when bg x start to lose)
I definitely don't want to see a Liliana ban, as that would basically kill all black based control decks.
Abrupt decay is the most obvious ban for me if bgx gets too strong, it's one of the cheaper cards and pretty much only played in Junk/Jund.
i dont want a warning so ill not going to say a lot about my thoughts on brainstorm in modern, but i think that is a good card against the b/g shell and it wont broke anything (no more turn 3 decks or anything like that) if anyone wants to keep talking about this pm me
i really dont think that there's a solution to modern right now, because they wont ban something like liliana, to really hurt the best strategy in the format (they keep banning other strategies when bg x start to lose)
I definitely don't want to see a Liliana ban, as that would basically kill all black based control decks.
Abrupt decay is the most obvious ban for me if bgx gets too strong, it's one of the cheaper cards and pretty much only played in Junk/Jund.
I know that it generally doesn't end on turn 4. My point is that when you declare that decks are allowed to consistently win on turn 4, you need a very strong reason to ban anything that doesn't do anything before turn 5. And there is no such reason for Ancestral Vision.
I understand this logic, but I think you are missing the point. Yawgmoth's Bargain would probably be pretty overpowered in Modern, and yet it would be rare for it to do anything before turn 5 as well. Card draw is in a different category than cards like Seething Song or Hypergenesis when it comes to "fairness" in the format. It has nothing to do with a nut draw that can win on turn 4, but it has everything to do with insurmountable inevitability. As we have seen with Treasure Cruise, it can be very difficult to overcome an opponent who can simply draw 3 from one card at any point in the game, even when it's past turn 4. Yes, Cruise was much better and often castable as early as turn 3, but they are closer in functionality then you are giving them credit for. Cruise in your opener was generally pretty bad. Vision in your opener is great. Cruise requires a commitment to cheap cantrips and often self-milling. Vision requires no such thing.
Point is, to write off Vision as way worse than Treasure Cruise, and therefore call it fair, is to miss the lesson we just learned from Treasure Cruise: Even conditional draw 3s can be quite abusable.
Good! That's exactly why control decks suck so much in the format: Lack of actual advantage for surviving the early game.
Is Snapcaster not card advantage? Sphinx's Rev? And again, you seem to think control specifically would benefit, yet the best Snap/Bolt decks are generally Combo hybrids.
And Scapeshift is a pretty good deck. What's your point here? Hypergenesis would almost certainly see play in exactly 1 deck; do you think Hypergenesis isn't particularly powerful?
Also, yes, Wild Nacatl isn't that amazing (though it did get a Top 8 place in the last Grand Prix). That's my point. Cards better than Ancestral Vision have been unbanned.
First, I think comparing AV to Wild Cat and Valakut is pretty silly. They all do completely different things, and power level is a very subjective discussion topic. But I would argue that Ancestral Vision is independently way more powerful than the other two examples. Scapeshift and Zoo are both below Tier 1. I would be surprised if Ancestral Vision did not break Tier 1. Unbanning the other two cards did not warp the format. AV potentially could. That is the difference.
A 1-mana, 4-turn draw 3. Calling it a "1 mana draw 3" is completely disingenuous.
When did I ever say it was terrible? It's decent. It'd probably see play. But it's not banworthy and it's certainly not overpowered.
The reason I want it unbanned is because it shouldn't be banned. I was campaigning for Golgari Grave-Troll as well, and I doubt it'd do much at all. If something shouldn't be on the banned list, it should be taken off, and Ancestral Vision not only shouldn't be on it, it never should have been.
If they hadn't made the braindead decision to ban it to begin with, I significantly doubt there would even be discussion here about banning it.
We all know what Ancestral Vision does, I shouldn't need to spell it out during discussions. The point is that it is a variation of Ancestral Recall, and one that has proven to be good in other past formats. I don't think banning it initially was "braindead", nor do I think it's as harmless as GGT or other recent unbans. I do not know for sure if it would be overpowered in Modern, but I think there is a chance that it is. I'm more than willing to admit that it might be completely fine and fair, but I'm not blind to the fact that it could also be quite powerful and unfair. We really can't know for sure until WOTC lets us try, but to assume that it's not even close to overpowered would be ignorant. Your blanket statements that AV is completely fine betray the reality of how magic actually works.
Then ban Lotus Bloom, Shared Discovery, Temporal Mastery, Wheel of Fate and Reforge the Soul (which cost LESS mana than Wheel of Fortune!), and Visions of Beyond.
Just saying "1 mana draw 3" doesn't mean anything by itself because it's ignoring the major drawbacks to it. If just throwing out a buzzword like "1 mana draw 3" is enough, then let's ban those cards I suggested, which are just as cheap (if not cheaper!) than cards everyone agrees are crazy broken. Trying to make comparisons to Ancestral Recall is just sensationalism in place of an actual argument.
Quite frankly I have major doubts Ancestral Vision would even help control much at all, but it's at least a start.
Nice list of cards that actually do suck. I understand that it's easy to find other examples that reflect the early "Power 20", but that actually aren't busted at all. However, Ancestral Vision is NOT one of these cards.
Fast mana isn't great when you have to wait for it, hence Lotus Bloom isn't insane. Miracles are generally pretty bad in general because of how volatile they are, and no it's not the same as how volatile Vision is. The difference with Miracles is that you don't want them in your opener, and you generally want to cast them at a specific point in the game. Wheel of Fortune is really good when your opponent has a lot of cards and you don't. Wheel of Fate is not impressive when you are forced to play it at a specific time, when perhaps it's not advantageous after all. Ditto for Reforge the Soul. Visions of Beyond is also ridiculously restrictive, as it's basically a Treasure Cruise with a casting cost of 20U instead of 7U. We all know why these cards don't work.
However, if they printed a Miracle Sorcery that cost 4UU but had a Miracles cost of U, and read "Draw 3 cards", it might actually be playable. Why? Because drawing cards is consistently the best thing you can be doing in this game, and it works with every strategy.
Ancestral Vision draws cards at some point in the game, and even though the suspend clause makes it very situational and time-dependent, it's basically always going to be good enough if you draw a copy in your first 10 cards. The same is not true for the other spells you listed.
But I don't need to dissect why the card is good, it's already been proven in past formats. And again, I'm not arguing that it shouldn't be unbanned, I'm actually all for it. I just think your argument that it should never have been on the banned list to begin with is overlooking a lot of logic on WOTC's end. They know the card is good, they know it has the potential to warp the format, they chose not to let it run free, that's it. And this obsession with Control being good enough that you and Valanarch have doesn't make your case any stronger. Control IS good enough, and there are various decks that play out very similar to control even if it's not strictly a Jeskai Wafo-Tapa or Esper Soorani deck. But unbanning Ancestral Vision doesn't necessarily help out JUST control either. Every other blue deck can potentially abuse the card, even Delver. It might not end up that way, but the potential is there. How do we know that Storm doesn't just become insane with Ancestral Vision? Or Twin? Or Scapeshift? Those decks could easily push Control out of the top Tier of blue decks with the right tools. Ancestral could easily be one of those tools. Don't be so focused on one archetype's future success that you miss the bigger picture. That's all I'm saying.
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MODERN RGB Jund BGR WGB Junk/Abzan Company WGB
LEGACY RUGB Delver GURB
EDH UW Geist of Saint Traft Aggro-Control WU RUG Riku of Two Reflections Combo GUR BBB Skithiryx Control BB
DTT has to go. It gave combo decks too much consistency. With DTT you could almost always find pieces needed to combo off. I agree here with Galerion that Scapeshift would be one of the best if not the best deck in the format if DTT wasn't gone.
Yes, it gave Combo decks the ability to consistently win after turn 4. That wasn't broken.
I didn't say it was broken but it was very good in the right decks (probably even better than TC, in the right decks I say). I think WotC did right job when they banned it and I'm glad it's gone.
This line of thinking makes no sense. Different cards, in a best case scenario, are supposed to be good in different decks. If DTT was better in combo/control decks than TC, and TC was better in tempo-burn style decks then that is a design win, because you have two cards that use the same mechanic but are significantly different enough from each other that slot into completely different archetypes. So the whole "DTT is better than TC in some decks!' arguments is just ... bad.
Now, TC was probably going to get banned eventually, even if it survived this round of bannings, it's card that had "I will be super broken one day" written all over it, just like in Legacy. TC was super broken in Legacy, far more than in Modern, so I can live with the fact that it's gone. But DTT didn't break any rules, and the argument on behalf of WoTC was complete garbage. Bannings and format changes should be based on objectivity, the guidelines should be adhered to as closely as possible - and not be based on speculation, it's a matter of principle and I think the players are owed that.
They claimed delver would basically be the same if TC was Replaced with DTT. Thats dumb.
DTT saw the creation of new decks like Jeksai Ascendancy. It gave potential to other decks besides twin and scapeshift
I dont really thing AV is the next card to be likely to come off. Ivea heard pros say that its insanely powerful for modern
And what "pros" are these? Are they regular players of Modern or just the big-name players who only play it for a Grand Prix and net deck and don't actually know much about the format?
I think Josh Utter leyton might have said this. Maybe some other CFB guy, but imo they might not be the absolute best at modern, but they def know about the format.
Well if they made that claim (no idea if they have), then they're wrong because it's not insanely powerful for Modern. I'm not even sure it's particularly good in Modern.
And if memory serves right, Josh Utter-Leyton (I'm pretty sure it was him; it was one of the guys with a hyphen in their name, and I'm almost certain it wasn't LSV) was the one who was convinced Jeskai Ascendancy was more dangerous than either Treasure Cruise or Dig Through Time and would destroy the format.
Ancestral Vision is a perfectly fair card that was banned for ludicrous reasons. The explanation given for it is a joke. I seriously just can't get over how purely bad their explanation for its banning was, especially considering that the control decks they were so terrified of would have, at that point, probably required Top, Jace, Sword, and Ancestral Vision to even be playable; this was the format where you either played 12-Post or played something that could win quicker than 12-Post. To be fair, Cloudpoast was later banned, so Ancestral Vision being on the banned list changed from unbelievably idiotic to just regular idiotic, but it does go to show how badly thought through its banning was.
And, yet again: Ancestral Vision is slower than cards already in the format. Concentrate draws you those cards on turn 4; Ancestral Vision waits until turn 5. Even if you argue that Concentrate can't cast the cards until turn 5, if you draw Ancestral Vision at any point after turn 1, Concentrate will be drawing you the cards and letting you cast them earlier. It's completely fair.
and proven to be too much especially since TC (another draw 3 spell) was banned.
Ancestral Vision is nowhere near the level of Treasure Cruise. And if "draw 3" is the problem, then ban Concentrate and Jace's Ingenuity. Especially considering Concentrate will draw you the cards a turn before Ancestral Vision does.
I meant draw 3 for 1 mana or close to 1 mana, obviously. I'm not making the argument that drawing 3 for 1 mana has proven to break the format in the iteration of either TC or AV, but im making the argument that Wizards' perception is that this effect (or cards) are too powerful for the mana cost for modern.
Then their perception is wrong. You have to wait 4 turns to draw those cards, which is a hinderance and a balancing factor. It also substantially limits which decks the card can even go into.
I said that in a vacuum, Jace might be the most powerful card in all of magic out side some vintage cards. That being said, it doenst need much to totally be busted in a deck that has some sort of control shell. Control isnt some overpowered archetype in modern right now, but what im saying is that if a deck that has some sort of control mechanism that can also cast the 2UU mana requirement of jace, can potentially, and probably, break the format. If they print a couple cards that powers up some sort of blue control deck in the future (e.g. reprint Counterspell in standard), then there is no way they can unban jace
Actually, Jace is surprisingly not that powerful in a vacuum. Without fetchlands or other easy shuffle effects (which we can't count--Vacuum, remember?), his Brainstorm ability--probably the best thing he does--is substantially weaker.
In a vacuum, I'd easily put cards like Lightning Bolt, Liliana of the Veil, Thoughtseize, Preordain, Path to Exile/Swords to Plowshares, and even Siege Rhino as quite a bit above Jace.
Jace is a win con, and non of those are besides Lili. Name a way to gain card advantage in Modern besides Electrolyize and Remand thats even good in Modern right now? You basically can't. Sphinx's Revelation, a card you need to cast for tons of mana late in the game. Maybe Think Twice, which is borderline good. Jace provides card advantage and card selection for FREE every turn.
I think people are underestimating AV's power. How do you even come back after them drawing 4 at the beginning of a turn instead of 1? I think there's other cards they can reprint/ unban that can be better
This, and made more possibilities for other combo decks to emerge, which, imo, is a lot more interesting than the limited combo decks (or just decks in general) that are in the meta now. With DTT, i dont see which decks it would push out of the meta. And you cant say Zoo decks, or any type of aggro. Or even midrange!
DTT breathed life into this format. Now its back to the same BGx, Twin, and Affinity being the top of the metagame, the only difference now is that Pod is gone
What decks did DTT support that aren't currently successful still without it? Scapeshift gained the most from the card, followed by Twin. Both decks are still perfectly viable, though admittedly Scapeshift in particular was much better with DTT. But there's a good chance that the current format with DTT in it would just be Delver, Twin, Scapeshift, and BG/x anyway. Which is kinda like a hybrid of pre- and post-ban formats. Pushing Twin and Scapeshift to solid Tier 1 isn't exactly "breathing new life" into the format, and there is a very good chance that Delver would have remained Tier 1 king with access to the 2nd best delve spell ever. Which would have certainly been okay with me, but would still have gotten just as stale as the Affinity/BG/Twin triangle over time.
DTT definitely would have kept things a bit more interesting for a little while, but eventually we would have had to face another stale format where blue decks crowded the top Tier even more than BG does not. Sure, it would have been different, but not necessarily more diverse. Modern's Tier decks are old hat for sure, but at least it's pretty diverse. Pushing 3 blue decks into Tier 1 while everything else stays roughly the same isn't really that much more interesting.
I dunno, I think they could have left DTT alone too, at least for a spell. But I'm pretty sure we would have had the same format as KTK Fall, just with slight tweaks. And I would be all for that in the short term, but long term it could very likely be too unhealthy.
Hopefully WOTC finds a way to shake things up again soon.
Jeskai Ascendancy was the main deck that was created because of DTT besides scapeshift and twin. Delver would be a deck still, but defiantly not as power, but in a better place than it is now, which is garbage. Thats 2 viable decks that can possibly be in the top tier along side scapeshift, affinity, twin, and Junk. How is 5-6 total decks in top tier not more interesting than the current 3-4? DTT also gave potential for future decks. One example is the Woo Brew of the doubling season fog deck
Personally I feel it's fine in this format with all the other broken cards and decks, I think the reason no one wants it around is because once it lands it acts as a Swiss Army knife and it makes aggro decks race to get it online. It's a good card, it generates value and provides interesting board states but is it really any more broken than any of the current swords or even Batterskull? I don't think so. I honestly don't think I would run it over Skull in most situations except in Zoo or Hatebears type decks.
I think it would be a safe unban but I think it's one of the cards that could be broken in a certain meta.
Writing this makes you look silly and makes people to not take you seriously.
Jitte is one of those obvious not to unban cards that no one talks about in here because it's so obvious it's better banned, specially when they are constantly resetting the power level back to the intended level via bans.
I didn't say I want it unbanned but rather I think it's safer than some other options. You can call it crazy all you want but if you seriously think getting it on a creature and being able to abuse it is any less broken than something like Storm or Twin then you're silly. Jitte is good against other creature decks, that's why it sees play in Legacy. You don't see people board it in against combo.
Again, I don't think it's going to be unbanned and I don't want it unbanned but it's effect on Modern wouldn't be as bad as you think. If the most powerful thing it can be doing is being cast and then equipped over the course of two turns then you have to be bat***** crazy.
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Active Modern Decks
U Tron GW Bogles RG Loam UR Blue Breach RBU Grixis Goryo BRU Grixis Delver GBR Jund GBW Junk
Jeskai Ascendancy was the main deck that was created because of DTT besides scapeshift and twin. Delver would be a deck still, but defiantly not as power, but in a better place than it is now, which is garbage. Thats 2 viable decks that can possibly be in the top tier along side scapeshift, affinity, twin, and Junk. How is 5-6 total decks in top tier not more interesting than the current 3-4? DTT also gave potential for future decks. One example is the Woo Brew of the doubling season fog deck
(I agree with you about Jace and AV)
I do understand that Jeskai Ascendancy was one of the decks featuring Dig Through Time, but it also was playing copies of Treasure Cruise. Eventually it seemed that DTT was the preferred spell, but early on Treasure Cruise was the favorite 4-slot. I think this, combined with the fact that Jeskai Ascendancy was released at the same time as Cruise/Dig, nullifies the argument that DTT created JA as a deck.
Looking at MTGtop8, the current top 6 decks are:
Junk
RDW
Affinity
Tron
Bloom Titan
Twin
and pre-bans it was something like:
Pod
Junk
UR Delver
Affinity
RDW
Scapeshift
Not that much has really changed. Sure, Jeskai Ascendancy is worse now, as is Scapeshift, but in terms of sheer numbers, the top Tier is pretty similar. We lost Pod and Delver and Twin and Tron stepped up instead. I don't really think Dig Through Time was making the format more diverse. And if it was still around, we'd probably just have UR Delver and Scapeshift or mayyybe Ascendancy in the top 6 rather than a couple other options.
Mostly, we'd still have Delver as probably the #1 deck, especially in the absence of Pod. That still sounds like an issue. It would have been interesting, don't get me wrong, but only for another 6 months. They could have waited until the next go-round to ban DTT in that case, but they took the safer route, which they often do. I can't fault them for that.
Also, Woo decks don't really count unless they actually catch on permanently, which is rare. He's a great brewer, but it's not often his creations become Tier 2 or better. Also, look at the new Naya Ghostway decks sprouting up. Those are a new innovation in the wake of Pod's departure, does that not count as renewed diversity?
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MODERN RGB Jund BGR WGB Junk/Abzan Company WGB
LEGACY RUGB Delver GURB
EDH UW Geist of Saint Traft Aggro-Control WU RUG Riku of Two Reflections Combo GUR BBB Skithiryx Control BB
You can see the paper and MTGO breakdowns there. Here's the pooled, unweighted average of MTGO/Paper.
Pooled metagame: Top 10 decks (1/23/2015 - 2/5/2015)
1. Junk (15.4%)
2. Burn (9%)
3. Affinity (8.1%)
4. RG Tron (5%)
5. UR Twin (4%)
6. Scapeshift (3.7%)
7. UWR Control (3.3%)
8. Merfolk (3.3%)
9. RUG Twin (3.2%)
10. Infect (2.7%)
[vs. HomelandZecurity's statement of:
Looking at MTGtop8, the current top 6 decks are:
Junk
RDW
Affinity
Tron
Bloom Titan
Twin]
Trying discuss Modern bans with bad metagame data is like trying to discuss politics when you just watch Fox news.
Aside from the Bloom Titan outlier, my quick list was nearly identical to yours. I'm not defending MtgTop8 as being super accurate, but for quick examples it seems to do a pretty decent job. What is your specific issue with MTGtop8's data? Would you recommend a better source outside of MTGS posters that's quick and easy for non-statisticians to access? I'm all ears.
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MODERN RGB Jund BGR WGB Junk/Abzan Company WGB
LEGACY RUGB Delver GURB
EDH UW Geist of Saint Traft Aggro-Control WU RUG Riku of Two Reflections Combo GUR BBB Skithiryx Control BB
Aside from the Bloom Titan outlier, my quick list was nearly identical to yours. I'm not defending MtgTop8 as being super accurate, but for quick examples it seems to do a pretty decent job. What is your specific issue with MTGtop8's data? Would you recommend a better source outside of MTGS posters that's quick and easy for non-statisticians to access? I'm all ears.
For one, you can't just say "Aside from Bloom Titan". That's a huge difference between the two lists; if Bloom were a top 5 deck, that would mean something totally different about its bannability than if it weren't even top 10. Even if we look past that, the MTGTop8 list doesn't include Scapeshift or UWR Control, one a combo/control deck and the other a hard control deck. Given how often this banlist discussion focuses on archetype imbalance, this is another huge omission. Finally, the absence of Merfolk from that list (not to mention Infect) suggests that Affinity and Burn are the only aggro archetypes in the format. Although those are certainly the big two, Merfolk and Infect are also quite viable now.
All of the other datasets are terrible. That's the only reason we have our own. I don't actually want to maintain the spreadsheet, find decklists, and crunch the numbers. It would be so much easier if one of the dozen mtg metagame sites would just do their jobs right. But until they do, we will keep the sheet going.
Even if you aren't a statistician, you can still use the spreadsheet. I've just updated the first tab so the pooled metagame stats are right there in Top 10 order, which should make it easier to look at and quickly see the metagame.
I use it for decklists. They let you compare 20 decks at once.
That's right. Realized I didn't speak to HZ's question about my issue with other datasets. There are three issues I always see. The first is incomplete datasets. MTGTop8 only does 4-0 decklists for reasons I just don't understand. Things like TCDecks and MTGDecks.com don't miss many paper events (they do miss a few), but don't combine them with MTGO data.
The second is inaccuracy. I don't know if these sites use algorithms to classify decks or if they do it manually, but either way they have tons of bad classifications. Here's a deck that
classified as "UR Aggro". http://www.mtgtop8.com/event?e=8953&d=251070&f=MO
That's UWR Delver. Not UR Delver. But it's included in the UR Delver percentage, which is just inaccurate. Here's another one: A "marty life" deck. http://www.mtgtop8.com/event?e=8941&d=251014&f=MO
Might be time to let the Elf lose. My fear before was that if you let it out, you would force all BG decks to splash Red. Now with Rhino you have a real choice to make when picking what flavour of BG to play. Add on Obliterator in Agro heavy Meta's and you have a reason to stay BG too. (Though not as compelling.) My fear though with it is you might see BG become Moderns "Legacy Delver" whereby you have a whole bunch of different stripes of the same basic deck.
Some musings. I really wonder if in the future we are going to see more decks like Jund pop up. As the card pool for all non rotating formats grows, I think that decks that cross-pollinate between those formats will grow in number. Delver (UR) and Jund are in my mind the start of a trend that will grow as more cards find themselve legal in both Modern and older formats. My thoughts on this is, at what point would it be best to shift Modern from a heavily regulated format to a format that can self regulate? The removal of Pod from the format in my eyes looks like the last refuge of Wizards only because this format does not have the tools to control itself. Granted BGx is somewhat of a police force with the option of removing most problem Permanents and the strength of tearing apart someones hand, but it is not alway enough and relying on one deck to fix issues is dangerous. My personal view is that Modern needs better permission (not necessarily counters though) that gives this format a more controlling deck. Top comes to mind as a possible unban to offer this deck, but without other effective manipulation, I fear its effect is too strong as it is not offset by anything else and Modern is not a fast format. I also feel that while Terminus can fix some issues, it can create a ton too.
To be honest, I do not have an answer, but I can see a problem.
Jeskai Ascendancy was the main deck that was created because of DTT besides scapeshift and twin. Delver would be a deck still, but defiantly not as power, but in a better place than it is now, which is garbage. Thats 2 viable decks that can possibly be in the top tier along side scapeshift, affinity, twin, and Junk. How is 5-6 total decks in top tier not more interesting than the current 3-4? DTT also gave potential for future decks. One example is the Woo Brew of the doubling season fog deck
(I agree with you about Jace and AV)
I do understand that Jeskai Ascendancy was one of the decks featuring Dig Through Time, but it also was playing copies of Treasure Cruise. Eventually it seemed that DTT was the preferred spell, but early on Treasure Cruise was the favorite 4-slot. I think this, combined with the fact that Jeskai Ascendancy was released at the same time as Cruise/Dig, nullifies the argument that DTT created JA as a deck.
Looking at MTGtop8, the current top 6 decks are:
Junk
RDW
Affinity
Tron
Bloom Titan
Twin
and pre-bans it was something like:
Pod
Junk
UR Delver
Affinity
RDW
Scapeshift
Not that much has really changed. Sure, Jeskai Ascendancy is worse now, as is Scapeshift, but in terms of sheer numbers, the top Tier is pretty similar. We lost Pod and Delver and Twin and Tron stepped up instead. I don't really think Dig Through Time was making the format more diverse. And if it was still around, we'd probably just have UR Delver and Scapeshift or mayyybe Ascendancy in the top 6 rather than a couple other options.
Mostly, we'd still have Delver as probably the #1 deck, especially in the absence of Pod. That still sounds like an issue. It would have been interesting, don't get me wrong, but only for another 6 months. They could have waited until the next go-round to ban DTT in that case, but they took the safer route, which they often do. I can't fault them for that.
Also, Woo decks don't really count unless they actually catch on permanently, which is rare. He's a great brewer, but it's not often his creations become Tier 2 or better. Also, look at the new Naya Ghostway decks sprouting up. Those are a new innovation in the wake of Pod's departure, does that not count as renewed diversity?
Ok i understand that. But whats new about the format? Finkle once said Modern is the most boring format. He didnt say this for no reason. Khans shook up the format, which was awesome. Now we go back to the old boring, stale metagame taht it was before minus pod. I believe that DTT gave potential, nothing more.
Side note: Jeskai Ascendancy 4 color used 4x TC. The 3 color, more Control oriented and better version only used 1 copy of TC and could have easily substituted it with something. DTT was its best card by far (besides Ascendancy obv). It basically kiled the deck. While the archetype still exists somewhat, idk if its any good, and definitely not as good as it was with DTT
U Tron
GW Bogles
RG Loam
UR Blue Breach
RBU Grixis Goryo
BRU Grixis Delver
GBR Jund
GBW Junk
Active Legacy Decks
BR Reanimator
What would happen if Umezawa's Jitte got unbanned? I love the card very much and find it fun to play with. It doesn't have Stoneforge Mystic to tutor for it. Would that bring it to a more balanced level? Without consistent ways to tutor for it, you'd have to play more copies than the normal 1-off in legacy, which could make it a poor draw when you already have one.
I'm not suggesting it come off the ban list mind you. I just adore the Jitte and I want to know what you guys think might happen if it came off. Speculate with me!
Modern - GB Elves, UW Ojutai Control
Legacy - BWG Junk Stoneblade
Gay and Proud
#MakeAmericaGreatAgain
I think it would be a safe unban but I think it's one of the cards that could be broken in a certain meta.
U Tron
GW Bogles
RG Loam
UR Blue Breach
RBU Grixis Goryo
BRU Grixis Delver
GBR Jund
GBW Junk
Active Legacy Decks
BR Reanimator
It would probably be fine in the right meta but right now midrange is plenty good enough already. Jitte would just make midrange decks even better than they need to be. There are also about 10 cards I would unban before I would unban Jitte
Yea im trolling
Yeah we better ban Goyf and Bolt
Slow Bolt R
Sorcery
Slow Bolt deals 3 damage to target creature or player.
Basically, just take instant speed out of the equation and Bolt becomes a lot more fair for 1 cmc, and opens up some other 1 cmc burn spells to see more play, like Flame Slash if you are playing it for creature removal purposes, while leaving this new option for regular Burn decks, just with less options for when to play it.
Doing that would probably completely transform the format, due to screwing up the 'bolt test' issue, it would open up a lot more creatures to potential play.
I don't think WotC would do that of course, Lightning Bolt is super-iconic, but if they banned Goyf as well, it would indicate nothing is 'sacred' in Modern, and they could probably get away with such a transformative ban, although they'd piss off a ton of people who bought lots of Modern Masters 1 for Goyfs, or spent a lot on Goyfs after it was printed in Modern Masters 1, under the assumption that being in Modern Masters meant it was now a sacred cow of the format that was immune to bans, despite being dangerously above curve and overly efficient/resilient.
i really dont think that there's a solution to modern right now, because they wont ban something like liliana, to really hurt the best strategy in the format (they keep banning other strategies when bg x start to lose)
Writing this makes you look silly and makes people to not take you seriously.
Jitte is one of those obvious not to unban cards that no one talks about in here because it's so obvious it's better banned, specially when they are constantly resetting the power level back to the intended level via bans.
I definitely don't want to see a Liliana ban, as that would basically kill all black based control decks.
Abrupt decay is the most obvious ban for me if bgx gets too strong, it's one of the cheaper cards and pretty much only played in Junk/Jund.
it's true, but they wont ban a removal spell
I understand this logic, but I think you are missing the point. Yawgmoth's Bargain would probably be pretty overpowered in Modern, and yet it would be rare for it to do anything before turn 5 as well. Card draw is in a different category than cards like Seething Song or Hypergenesis when it comes to "fairness" in the format. It has nothing to do with a nut draw that can win on turn 4, but it has everything to do with insurmountable inevitability. As we have seen with Treasure Cruise, it can be very difficult to overcome an opponent who can simply draw 3 from one card at any point in the game, even when it's past turn 4. Yes, Cruise was much better and often castable as early as turn 3, but they are closer in functionality then you are giving them credit for. Cruise in your opener was generally pretty bad. Vision in your opener is great. Cruise requires a commitment to cheap cantrips and often self-milling. Vision requires no such thing.
Point is, to write off Vision as way worse than Treasure Cruise, and therefore call it fair, is to miss the lesson we just learned from Treasure Cruise: Even conditional draw 3s can be quite abusable.
Is Snapcaster not card advantage? Sphinx's Rev? And again, you seem to think control specifically would benefit, yet the best Snap/Bolt decks are generally Combo hybrids.
First, I think comparing AV to Wild Cat and Valakut is pretty silly. They all do completely different things, and power level is a very subjective discussion topic. But I would argue that Ancestral Vision is independently way more powerful than the other two examples. Scapeshift and Zoo are both below Tier 1. I would be surprised if Ancestral Vision did not break Tier 1. Unbanning the other two cards did not warp the format. AV potentially could. That is the difference.
We all know what Ancestral Vision does, I shouldn't need to spell it out during discussions. The point is that it is a variation of Ancestral Recall, and one that has proven to be good in other past formats. I don't think banning it initially was "braindead", nor do I think it's as harmless as GGT or other recent unbans. I do not know for sure if it would be overpowered in Modern, but I think there is a chance that it is. I'm more than willing to admit that it might be completely fine and fair, but I'm not blind to the fact that it could also be quite powerful and unfair. We really can't know for sure until WOTC lets us try, but to assume that it's not even close to overpowered would be ignorant. Your blanket statements that AV is completely fine betray the reality of how magic actually works.
Nice list of cards that actually do suck. I understand that it's easy to find other examples that reflect the early "Power 20", but that actually aren't busted at all. However, Ancestral Vision is NOT one of these cards.
Fast mana isn't great when you have to wait for it, hence Lotus Bloom isn't insane. Miracles are generally pretty bad in general because of how volatile they are, and no it's not the same as how volatile Vision is. The difference with Miracles is that you don't want them in your opener, and you generally want to cast them at a specific point in the game. Wheel of Fortune is really good when your opponent has a lot of cards and you don't. Wheel of Fate is not impressive when you are forced to play it at a specific time, when perhaps it's not advantageous after all. Ditto for Reforge the Soul. Visions of Beyond is also ridiculously restrictive, as it's basically a Treasure Cruise with a casting cost of 20U instead of 7U. We all know why these cards don't work.
However, if they printed a Miracle Sorcery that cost 4UU but had a Miracles cost of U, and read "Draw 3 cards", it might actually be playable. Why? Because drawing cards is consistently the best thing you can be doing in this game, and it works with every strategy.
Ancestral Vision draws cards at some point in the game, and even though the suspend clause makes it very situational and time-dependent, it's basically always going to be good enough if you draw a copy in your first 10 cards. The same is not true for the other spells you listed.
But I don't need to dissect why the card is good, it's already been proven in past formats. And again, I'm not arguing that it shouldn't be unbanned, I'm actually all for it. I just think your argument that it should never have been on the banned list to begin with is overlooking a lot of logic on WOTC's end. They know the card is good, they know it has the potential to warp the format, they chose not to let it run free, that's it. And this obsession with Control being good enough that you and Valanarch have doesn't make your case any stronger. Control IS good enough, and there are various decks that play out very similar to control even if it's not strictly a Jeskai Wafo-Tapa or Esper Soorani deck. But unbanning Ancestral Vision doesn't necessarily help out JUST control either. Every other blue deck can potentially abuse the card, even Delver. It might not end up that way, but the potential is there. How do we know that Storm doesn't just become insane with Ancestral Vision? Or Twin? Or Scapeshift? Those decks could easily push Control out of the top Tier of blue decks with the right tools. Ancestral could easily be one of those tools. Don't be so focused on one archetype's future success that you miss the bigger picture. That's all I'm saying.
RGB Jund BGR
WGB Junk/Abzan Company WGB
LEGACY
RUGB Delver GURB
EDH
UW Geist of Saint Traft Aggro-Control WU
RUG Riku of Two Reflections Combo GUR
BBB Skithiryx Control BB
They claimed delver would basically be the same if TC was Replaced with DTT. Thats dumb.
DTT saw the creation of new decks like Jeksai Ascendancy. It gave potential to other decks besides twin and scapeshift
URStormRU
GRTitanshift[mana]RG/mana]
Jace is a win con, and non of those are besides Lili. Name a way to gain card advantage in Modern besides Electrolyize and Remand thats even good in Modern right now? You basically can't. Sphinx's Revelation, a card you need to cast for tons of mana late in the game. Maybe Think Twice, which is borderline good. Jace provides card advantage and card selection for FREE every turn.
I think people are underestimating AV's power. How do you even come back after them drawing 4 at the beginning of a turn instead of 1? I think there's other cards they can reprint/ unban that can be better
Jeskai Ascendancy was the main deck that was created because of DTT besides scapeshift and twin. Delver would be a deck still, but defiantly not as power, but in a better place than it is now, which is garbage. Thats 2 viable decks that can possibly be in the top tier along side scapeshift, affinity, twin, and Junk. How is 5-6 total decks in top tier not more interesting than the current 3-4? DTT also gave potential for future decks. One example is the Woo Brew of the doubling season fog deck
URStormRU
GRTitanshift[mana]RG/mana]
I didn't say I want it unbanned but rather I think it's safer than some other options. You can call it crazy all you want but if you seriously think getting it on a creature and being able to abuse it is any less broken than something like Storm or Twin then you're silly. Jitte is good against other creature decks, that's why it sees play in Legacy. You don't see people board it in against combo.
Again, I don't think it's going to be unbanned and I don't want it unbanned but it's effect on Modern wouldn't be as bad as you think. If the most powerful thing it can be doing is being cast and then equipped over the course of two turns then you have to be bat***** crazy.
U Tron
GW Bogles
RG Loam
UR Blue Breach
RBU Grixis Goryo
BRU Grixis Delver
GBR Jund
GBW Junk
Active Legacy Decks
BR Reanimator
(I agree with you about Jace and AV)
I do understand that Jeskai Ascendancy was one of the decks featuring Dig Through Time, but it also was playing copies of Treasure Cruise. Eventually it seemed that DTT was the preferred spell, but early on Treasure Cruise was the favorite 4-slot. I think this, combined with the fact that Jeskai Ascendancy was released at the same time as Cruise/Dig, nullifies the argument that DTT created JA as a deck.
Looking at MTGtop8, the current top 6 decks are:
Junk
RDW
Affinity
Tron
Bloom Titan
Twin
and pre-bans it was something like:
Pod
Junk
UR Delver
Affinity
RDW
Scapeshift
Not that much has really changed. Sure, Jeskai Ascendancy is worse now, as is Scapeshift, but in terms of sheer numbers, the top Tier is pretty similar. We lost Pod and Delver and Twin and Tron stepped up instead. I don't really think Dig Through Time was making the format more diverse. And if it was still around, we'd probably just have UR Delver and Scapeshift or mayyybe Ascendancy in the top 6 rather than a couple other options.
Mostly, we'd still have Delver as probably the #1 deck, especially in the absence of Pod. That still sounds like an issue. It would have been interesting, don't get me wrong, but only for another 6 months. They could have waited until the next go-round to ban DTT in that case, but they took the safer route, which they often do. I can't fault them for that.
Also, Woo decks don't really count unless they actually catch on permanently, which is rare. He's a great brewer, but it's not often his creations become Tier 2 or better. Also, look at the new Naya Ghostway decks sprouting up. Those are a new innovation in the wake of Pod's departure, does that not count as renewed diversity?
RGB Jund BGR
WGB Junk/Abzan Company WGB
LEGACY
RUGB Delver GURB
EDH
UW Geist of Saint Traft Aggro-Control WU
RUG Riku of Two Reflections Combo GUR
BBB Skithiryx Control BB
I cry whenever someone uses MTGTop8 as a source of metagame data.
Posted this to r/spikes the other day, but it's also in the Metagame thread and the PT FRF thread:
http://www.reddit.com/r/spikes/comments/2uwbh7/modern_modern_metagame_mtgo_and_paper_123_205/
You can see the paper and MTGO breakdowns there. Here's the pooled, unweighted average of MTGO/Paper.
Pooled metagame: Top 10 decks
(1/23/2015 - 2/5/2015)
1. Junk (15.4%)
2. Burn (9%)
3. Affinity (8.1%)
4. RG Tron (5%)
5. UR Twin (4%)
6. Scapeshift (3.7%)
7. UWR Control (3.3%)
8. Merfolk (3.3%)
9. RUG Twin (3.2%)
10. Infect (2.7%)
Trying discuss Modern bans with bad metagame data is like trying to discuss politics when you just watch Fox news.
Aside from the Bloom Titan outlier, my quick list was nearly identical to yours. I'm not defending MtgTop8 as being super accurate, but for quick examples it seems to do a pretty decent job. What is your specific issue with MTGtop8's data? Would you recommend a better source outside of MTGS posters that's quick and easy for non-statisticians to access? I'm all ears.
RGB Jund BGR
WGB Junk/Abzan Company WGB
LEGACY
RUGB Delver GURB
EDH
UW Geist of Saint Traft Aggro-Control WU
RUG Riku of Two Reflections Combo GUR
BBB Skithiryx Control BB
For one, you can't just say "Aside from Bloom Titan". That's a huge difference between the two lists; if Bloom were a top 5 deck, that would mean something totally different about its bannability than if it weren't even top 10. Even if we look past that, the MTGTop8 list doesn't include Scapeshift or UWR Control, one a combo/control deck and the other a hard control deck. Given how often this banlist discussion focuses on archetype imbalance, this is another huge omission. Finally, the absence of Merfolk from that list (not to mention Infect) suggests that Affinity and Burn are the only aggro archetypes in the format. Although those are certainly the big two, Merfolk and Infect are also quite viable now.
All of the other datasets are terrible. That's the only reason we have our own. I don't actually want to maintain the spreadsheet, find decklists, and crunch the numbers. It would be so much easier if one of the dozen mtg metagame sites would just do their jobs right. But until they do, we will keep the sheet going.
Even if you aren't a statistician, you can still use the spreadsheet. I've just updated the first tab so the pooled metagame stats are right there in Top 10 order, which should make it easier to look at and quickly see the metagame.
I use it for decklists. They let you compare 20 decks at once.
| Ad Nauseam
| Infect
Big Johnny.
That's right. Realized I didn't speak to HZ's question about my issue with other datasets. There are three issues I always see. The first is incomplete datasets. MTGTop8 only does 4-0 decklists for reasons I just don't understand. Things like TCDecks and MTGDecks.com don't miss many paper events (they do miss a few), but don't combine them with MTGO data.
The second is inaccuracy. I don't know if these sites use algorithms to classify decks or if they do it manually, but either way they have tons of bad classifications. Here's a deck that
classified as "UR Aggro".
http://www.mtgtop8.com/event?e=8953&d=251070&f=MO
That's UWR Delver. Not UR Delver. But it's included in the UR Delver percentage, which is just inaccurate. Here's another one: A "marty life" deck.
http://www.mtgtop8.com/event?e=8941&d=251014&f=MO
That's a Norin deck. Not Martyr Proc (http://www.mtgtop8.com/event?e=9028&d=251444&f=MO) at all. These kinds of inaccuracies make me distrust the datasets.
Finally, the datasets have calculation and data entry errors. There was this PPTQ in Canada the other week that got double entered on sites across the internet.
http://www.mtgdecks.net/events/view/18166
http://www.mtgdecks.net/events/view/18167
This suggests that people aren't vetting the data or are at least just being lazy.
Some musings. I really wonder if in the future we are going to see more decks like Jund pop up. As the card pool for all non rotating formats grows, I think that decks that cross-pollinate between those formats will grow in number. Delver (UR) and Jund are in my mind the start of a trend that will grow as more cards find themselve legal in both Modern and older formats. My thoughts on this is, at what point would it be best to shift Modern from a heavily regulated format to a format that can self regulate? The removal of Pod from the format in my eyes looks like the last refuge of Wizards only because this format does not have the tools to control itself. Granted BGx is somewhat of a police force with the option of removing most problem Permanents and the strength of tearing apart someones hand, but it is not alway enough and relying on one deck to fix issues is dangerous. My personal view is that Modern needs better permission (not necessarily counters though) that gives this format a more controlling deck. Top comes to mind as a possible unban to offer this deck, but without other effective manipulation, I fear its effect is too strong as it is not offset by anything else and Modern is not a fast format. I also feel that while Terminus can fix some issues, it can create a ton too.
To be honest, I do not have an answer, but I can see a problem.
Current decks of choice:
Vintage: Shops.
Legacy: Lands.
Modern: Lantern.
Ok i understand that. But whats new about the format? Finkle once said Modern is the most boring format. He didnt say this for no reason. Khans shook up the format, which was awesome. Now we go back to the old boring, stale metagame taht it was before minus pod. I believe that DTT gave potential, nothing more.
Side note: Jeskai Ascendancy 4 color used 4x TC. The 3 color, more Control oriented and better version only used 1 copy of TC and could have easily substituted it with something. DTT was its best card by far (besides Ascendancy obv). It basically kiled the deck. While the archetype still exists somewhat, idk if its any good, and definitely not as good as it was with DTT
URStormRU
GRTitanshift[mana]RG/mana]
Or just put it in this space on the topbar: