Will Iconic Masters affect original pack foil prices? I still need two foil Grove of the Burnwillows for my Tron deck, and am wondering if I should wait to buy them.
Will Iconic Masters affect original pack foil prices? I still need two foil Grove of the Burnwillows for my Tron deck, and am wondering if I should wait to buy them.
Masters foils will definitely be cheaper.
Pack foil future sight ones will probably have little to no change due to the weird frame.
FTV will probably drop significantly.
Private Mod Note
():
Rollback Post to RevisionRollBack
pucatrade
big receipts
alpha mox emerald
beta time walk
4 goyfs received
3 liliana of the veil
4 karn liberated
3 force of will
4 grove of the burnwillows
snapcaster mage
3 horizon canopy
2 full art damnation
I'd expect the usage rate of Horizon Canopy to go up. It's a good card but not really essential, so a lot of people will make less expensive choices in their decks. If it comes down to say $30, people who didn't want to spend $100 or even $70 per card would be inclined to pick it up. I'd pay $120 for a playset.
I'd expect the usage rate of Horizon Canopy to go up. It's a good card but not really essential, so a lot of people will make less expensive choices in their decks. If it comes down to say $30, people who didn't want to spend $100 or even $70 per card would be inclined to pick it up. I'd pay $120 for a playset.
This card will not drop to $30.
My assumption for the lower bar is $50
I'd expect the usage rate of Horizon Canopy to go up. It's a good card but not really essential, so a lot of people will make less expensive choices in their decks. If it comes down to say $30, people who didn't want to spend $100 or even $70 per card would be inclined to pick it up. I'd pay $120 for a playset.
This card will not drop to $30.
My assumption for the lower bar is $50
BTW, I need a playset as well.
They are already down to $50 on TCGplayer and the set isn't even out yet. I don't think $30 is that unrealistic.
So I followed prices pretty well for the last MM release and hit the lows of all my target cards within $2 a piece. I expect further dips at release. what surprised me so how quickly those prices snapped back (2-3 weeks for some of my cards). Prices were starting to drift back up before stores in my area even got any more product.
I don't think we're at rock bottom yet, but I don't think prices are gonna fall much below what they settle at a week after release. I also agree with the general opinion that cards have specific buy in levels and the higher the tag the more buy in levels you introduce (like horizon canopy). $400 for a set is a lot, $200 now is still a good chunk but that's the same value for half the price. I'm pretty sure itll turn the corner sooner then later. I plan to buy in at anything sub $35 personally. I just can't see it going below 20 since the expedition barely dented the price - there is spec and normal demand keeping this thing afloat at this obscene level.
It ****s with price memory...hard. A card like Horizon Canopy stays expensive in part because people are willing to let it sit for months waiting for a buyer instead of lowering price for the sake of liquidity. A masters reprint is announced, and especially with EMA setting a precedent for second run, and finally that is the sort of shift of supply that will lead to people dropping the price. I'm generally a fan of the secondary market, but price memory is market inefficiency.
Hi, would Grim Flayer drop in price once it rotates from Standard?
I plan to pick up one or two, but still not decided to get now.. or wait a little bit longer for rotation to happen?
Hi, would Grim Flayer drop in price once it rotates from Standard?
I plan to pick up one or two, but still not decided to get now.. or wait a little bit longer for rotation to happen?
It might drop a couple dollars more, but it's probably about reaching the bottom. It sees a decent amount of play in BGx decks and doesn't see any real play in standard for rotation to really impact it. I imagine it will be a lot like Huntmaster of the Fells
It ****s with price memory...hard. A card like Horizon Canopy stays expensive in part because people are willing to let it sit for months waiting for a buyer instead of lowering price for the sake of liquidity. A masters reprint is announced, and especially with EMA setting a precedent for second run, and finally that is the sort of shift of supply that will lead to people dropping the price. I'm generally a fan of the secondary market, but price memory is market inefficiency.
If you bought a card for $100 and wanted to later sell it, how low would you sell it for? If, collectively, no one who has this card wants to lose money on it, and no one is immediately inclined to sell, then the price stays the same. "Price memory" is simply a function of people not wanting to lose money on something they purchased. There's no reason to sell lower than market value unless you actively need to undercut competition in order to sell quickly. "Price memory" is erased by enough people undercutting each other by dumping cards into the market at a lower price than other competitors. Usually this doesn't happen unless it is forced (seller needs money asap, reprint/ban tanks value, etc), or a slow, gradual decline dips low enough to justify selling at a loss (knowing it probably won't go back up).
The real people to blame for price memory are those who create buyouts and price spikes to begin with.
Currently, it is very difficult for potential buyers to bid on expensive (or any) cards. Back to our $100 Canopy example. There is no way for a buyer to know that there is a potential buyer out there for $85. It's difficult for sellers to lower prices without this sort of information. Too much risk of leaving value on the table. But if they knew what a potential buyer would pay, then they can make the decision of whether that price was acceptable. The secondary market is not a perfect one.
Doesn't the simple existence of eBay bridge a lot of that though? Recent completed auctions should give a pretty good indication of how high people are willing to go for any given card. If EBay canopy auctions regularly top 80 but seldom break 85, that should be a pretty good measure even for monauctioners as to what the market is willing to pay.
Tcgplayer shows 'market value' on cards now, which (according to them) is based on actually sold units and not list prices - so it is lower than the mid of list prices that was the traditional default price view. That, too, should give some insight into what the market will bear.
It ****s with price memory...hard. A card like Horizon Canopy stays expensive in part because people are willing to let it sit for months waiting for a buyer instead of lowering price for the sake of liquidity. A masters reprint is announced, and especially with EMA setting a precedent for second run, and finally that is the sort of shift of supply that will lead to people dropping the price. I'm generally a fan of the secondary market, but price memory is market inefficiency.
If you bought a card for $100 and wanted to later sell it, how low would you sell it for? If, collectively, no one who has this card wants to lose money on it, and no one is immediately inclined to sell, then the price stays the same. "Price memory" is simply a function of people not wanting to lose money on something they purchased. There's no reason to sell lower than market value unless you actively need to undercut competition in order to sell quickly. "Price memory" is erased by enough people undercutting each other by dumping cards into the market at a lower price than other competitors. Usually this doesn't happen unless it is forced (seller needs money asap, reprint/ban tanks value, etc), or a slow, gradual decline dips low enough to justify selling at a loss (knowing it probably won't go back up).
The real people to blame for price memory are those who create buyouts and price spikes to begin with.
Just because one person bought a $100 card this week does not mean that is the market price, not in literal economic terms of market efficiency. You can absolutely buy a card that is overpriced even if its the lowest one on tcgplayer. Buyouts, too, just because someone buys all the moats then doubles the price does not make that the new market price if the vendor is losing money via lack of liquidity or people just looking for substitutes both in cards and formats. Personally, though, I can't help but say I hope every card keeps getting reprinted.
Doesn't the simple existence of eBay bridge a lot of that though? Recent completed auctions should give a pretty good indication of how high people are willing to go for any given card. If EBay canopy auctions regularly top 80 but seldom break 85, that should be a pretty good measure even for monauctioners as to what the market is willing to pay.
Tcgplayer shows 'market value' on cards now, which (according to them) is based on actually sold units and not list prices - so it is lower than the mid of list prices that was the traditional default price view. That, too, should give some insight into what the market will bear.
Sort of, but not really. Sellers incur risk with an actual auction. I do agree that that can be an indicator of market price, but you need Sellers to actually begin that process. It's also only one piece of the puzzle. I guarantee you would have more bidders/buyers of $80 Horizon Canopies if they knew they could sell it to a willing buyer at $85. Having access to both pieces of information is the best way to find the true market price. 1 eBay purchase for $80 isn't nearly as telling as 1,000 committed, willing bids at $75.
I'd expect the usage rate of Horizon Canopy to go up. It's a good card but not really essential, so a lot of people will make less expensive choices in their decks. If it comes down to say $30, people who didn't want to spend $100 or even $70 per card would be inclined to pick it up. I'd pay $120 for a playset.
This card will not drop to $30.
My assumption for the lower bar is $50
BTW, I need a playset as well.
They are already down to $50 on TCGplayer and the set isn't even out yet. I don't think $30 is that unrealistic.
No, not at all. Especially because it's being reprinted at rare. Canopies were readily available for under $10 prior to MM13 and then $30-$35 between that time and MM15. If you look at its price trend over time, each spike on its timeline is directly correlated with Masters set spoilers. I love Horizon Canopy and I'm stoked it's finally getting an actual reprint, but I also know the intrinsic value of the card and that value is not North of $30 if/when there's an adequate supply released into the market. Hell, Karakas fell below $30 at one point following its EM reprinting. I'm sure players/stores will sit on them for as long as they can in order to keep that price afloat, but when people start cracking packs of IM it'll just be a matter of time before every Timmy and Tom start pulling that "$50 rare" and go to cash in by undercutting market prices. Sucks if you spent an exorbitant amount of money on canopies within the last year or so, but that's the power of supply and demand.
At the rate Hasbro WotC has been pulling the trigger on reprints, these situations where a card's value is largely determined by moderate demand & low supply are going to be less prevalent going forward. Hasbro WotC has solved the problem of how to make profit off of non-standard players and the solution appears to be Masters/premium sets. Call me crazy, but so long as players are willing to shell out $10/booster for the same (actually less amount of) cardboard then I wouldn't be surprised to see the number of "premium" sets rival that of standard sets during a given fiscal year. Why do you think every RL card in existence has been getting bought out over the last few months? Hasbro doesn't want to go full Konami and start printing Modern/eternal format staples into the ground, but it appears that they sure as ***** will try and see how far they can go with it.
It ****s with price memory...hard. A card like Horizon Canopy stays expensive in part because people are willing to let it sit for months waiting for a buyer instead of lowering price for the sake of liquidity. A masters reprint is announced, and especially with EMA setting a precedent for second run, and finally that is the sort of shift of supply that will lead to people dropping the price. I'm generally a fan of the secondary market, but price memory is market inefficiency.
If you bought a card for $100 and wanted to later sell it, how low would you sell it for? If, collectively, no one who has this card wants to lose money on it, and no one is immediately inclined to sell, then the price stays the same. "Price memory" is simply a function of people not wanting to lose money on something they purchased. There's no reason to sell lower than market value unless you actively need to undercut competition in order to sell quickly. "Price memory" is erased by enough people undercutting each other by dumping cards into the market at a lower price than other competitors. Usually this doesn't happen unless it is forced (seller needs money asap, reprint/ban tanks value, etc), or a slow, gradual decline dips low enough to justify selling at a loss (knowing it probably won't go back up).
The real people to blame for price memory are those who create buyouts and price spikes to begin with.
Just because one person bought a $100 card this week does not mean that is the market price, not in literal economic terms of market efficiency. You can absolutely buy a card that is overpriced even if its the lowest one on tcgplayer. Buyouts, too, just because someone buys all the moats then doubles the price does not make that the new market price if the vendor is losing money via lack of liquidity or people just looking for substitutes both in cards and formats. Personally, though, I can't help but say I hope every card keeps getting reprinted.
If there is enough agreement on a card's price (IE: lots of copies sell for that price) then that IS the card's price. "Price memory" stays high as long as copies continue to sell at that high price. If we, the players, refuse to pay those spiked buyout prices, eventually they will have be lowered in order to actually sell the cards. Since there is literally no regulation whatsoever, it's almost the purest form of supply and demand you could possible see. The Magic singles market is something they should use as examples in high school economics classes because it's absolutely fascinating to see the different impacts various elements have on a completely unrelated market.
But correct, buying out and doubling the price of a card doesn't, in of itself, create price memory. But if enough sellers catch on and raise their prices to match AND, MOST IMPORTANTLY, people CONTINUE TO BUY at that inflated price, then Price Memory will hold as long as there are people willing to pay that price.
But I totally agree with seeing things reprinted. Even if I have thousands "invested" in Magic, almost everything I own is something I want to play. The only actual spec target I picked up were several dozen playsets of KTK fetchlands. Prices really don't mean anything to me unless I have to buy it for a deck; at which point lower prices are always better. The only time I would wish for high prices is if I ever sell out of the game and want to cash in on my collection.
The real money is in the Reserved list cards. I've given up on speculating on Modern cards. The reprints make it too risky.
There are, of course, certain exceptions. The flip walkers from Origins, because DFC are hard to reprint unless you do a large number of them. Gideon in particular will be popular as Gideon tribal may become a thing in Modern and EDH. Also the Expedition/Masterpiece/Invocation series has enormous potential over the next 5 years. I'm picking up those where and when I can.
The sheer amount of money that moved into the RL in the past 2 months makes any and all RL cards a great purchase for future sale. The Dark will be next, and I've quietly been stocking up on RL cards in anticipation. The USC document is no longer available, but the Wayback Machine has it archived at https://web.archive.org/web/20151225142722/usc.edu/dept/Deckmasters/archive/mtg/printrun.txt
Some of these cards are seriously rare, and are truly the only real place to put one's money if you are looking to make a profit or speculate in Magic. The top end is going to be graded examples of the iconic cards. In the end, collectors rule the day, because they get fanatical about it, and the low populations of mint copies can only get lower, since this is a playing, shuffling game. Sportscards do not deal with this. Running over to Beckett.com to look at the pop report of graded power 10 shows this. If you can find a Power 10 card graded 9.5 or higher for less than a 50% increase over the regular price, it's a steal. The window is fast closing, as someone has put what looks to be $20 or $30K into buying up RL cards from Alpha to Legends, with a few The Dark cards. The money will keep coming in.
There are, of course, certain exceptions. The flip walkers from Origins, because DFC are hard to reprint unless you do a large number of them. Gideon in particular will be popular as Gideon tribal may become a thing in Modern and EDH. Also the Expedition/Masterpiece/Invocation series has enormous potential over the next 5 years. I'm picking up those where and when I can.
Just a heads-up, there is From The Vault: Transform that will be released this November with 15 dual faced cards. I'm pretty sure Jace, at the very least, will be included in there. If you have speculated on the flipwalkers, I believe now may be a good time to sell, before that set is spoiled.
Is now as good a time as any to buy a push playset if I don't plan on using it now?
I'd wait closer till the end of September. There are still three more FNM dates on which the promo will be given away.
The set isn't being drafted anymore and there will always be demand (legacy, modern) for it. I wouldn't expect the price to drop significantly until it rotates.
Private Mod Note
():
Rollback Post to RevisionRollBack
pucatrade
big receipts
alpha mox emerald
beta time walk
4 goyfs received
3 liliana of the veil
4 karn liberated
3 force of will
4 grove of the burnwillows
snapcaster mage
3 horizon canopy
2 full art damnation
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Pack foil future sight ones will probably have little to no change due to the weird frame.
FTV will probably drop significantly.
pucatrade
big receipts
alpha mox emerald
beta time walk
4 goyfs received
3 liliana of the veil
4 karn liberated
3 force of will
4 grove of the burnwillows
snapcaster mage
3 horizon canopy
2 full art damnation
I'm a little disappointed as I just bought into two of them before they were spoiled, but that card also didn't have much business sitting at 100$.
Retired
Legacy:
GRUB Lands
Modern:
U Tron
RG Tron
RG Ponza
This card will not drop to $30.
My assumption for the lower bar is $50
BTW, I need a playset as well.
Anything, but nothing at the moment...
Modern:
WUBRGAmulet Titan, WUBRGHuman
WUBRAd Nauseam, WBRGDeath Shadow, UBRGScapeshift, UBRGDredge
WURJeskai Nahiri, WURCheeri0s, WBGCounter Company, WRGBurn, UBRMadcap Moon, BRGJund Midrange
UBTurn,BRGriselbrand Reanimator, WGKnight Company, RGRG Tron, RGRG Ponza, XAffinity, XEldrazi Tron
It's already available for $15 a card. It could go as low as $10, which is what I paid a few months ago (won an ebay auction for under $40/playset).
They are already down to $50 on TCGplayer and the set isn't even out yet. I don't think $30 is that unrealistic.
I don't think we're at rock bottom yet, but I don't think prices are gonna fall much below what they settle at a week after release. I also agree with the general opinion that cards have specific buy in levels and the higher the tag the more buy in levels you introduce (like horizon canopy). $400 for a set is a lot, $200 now is still a good chunk but that's the same value for half the price. I'm pretty sure itll turn the corner sooner then later. I plan to buy in at anything sub $35 personally. I just can't see it going below 20 since the expedition barely dented the price - there is spec and normal demand keeping this thing afloat at this obscene level.
Spirits
It ****s with price memory...hard. A card like Horizon Canopy stays expensive in part because people are willing to let it sit for months waiting for a buyer instead of lowering price for the sake of liquidity. A masters reprint is announced, and especially with EMA setting a precedent for second run, and finally that is the sort of shift of supply that will lead to people dropping the price. I'm generally a fan of the secondary market, but price memory is market inefficiency.
I plan to pick up one or two, but still not decided to get now.. or wait a little bit longer for rotation to happen?
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It might drop a couple dollars more, but it's probably about reaching the bottom. It sees a decent amount of play in BGx decks and doesn't see any real play in standard for rotation to really impact it. I imagine it will be a lot like Huntmaster of the Fells
If you bought a card for $100 and wanted to later sell it, how low would you sell it for? If, collectively, no one who has this card wants to lose money on it, and no one is immediately inclined to sell, then the price stays the same. "Price memory" is simply a function of people not wanting to lose money on something they purchased. There's no reason to sell lower than market value unless you actively need to undercut competition in order to sell quickly. "Price memory" is erased by enough people undercutting each other by dumping cards into the market at a lower price than other competitors. Usually this doesn't happen unless it is forced (seller needs money asap, reprint/ban tanks value, etc), or a slow, gradual decline dips low enough to justify selling at a loss (knowing it probably won't go back up).
The real people to blame for price memory are those who create buyouts and price spikes to begin with.
UR ....... WUBR ........... WB ............. RGW ........ UBR ....... WUB .... BGU
Spells / Blink & Combo / Token Grind / Dino Tribal / Draw Cards / Zombies / Reanimate
Tcgplayer shows 'market value' on cards now, which (according to them) is based on actually sold units and not list prices - so it is lower than the mid of list prices that was the traditional default price view. That, too, should give some insight into what the market will bear.
Just because one person bought a $100 card this week does not mean that is the market price, not in literal economic terms of market efficiency. You can absolutely buy a card that is overpriced even if its the lowest one on tcgplayer. Buyouts, too, just because someone buys all the moats then doubles the price does not make that the new market price if the vendor is losing money via lack of liquidity or people just looking for substitutes both in cards and formats. Personally, though, I can't help but say I hope every card keeps getting reprinted.
Sort of, but not really. Sellers incur risk with an actual auction. I do agree that that can be an indicator of market price, but you need Sellers to actually begin that process. It's also only one piece of the puzzle. I guarantee you would have more bidders/buyers of $80 Horizon Canopies if they knew they could sell it to a willing buyer at $85. Having access to both pieces of information is the best way to find the true market price. 1 eBay purchase for $80 isn't nearly as telling as 1,000 committed, willing bids at $75.
No, not at all. Especially because it's being reprinted at rare. Canopies were readily available for under $10 prior to MM13 and then $30-$35 between that time and MM15. If you look at its price trend over time, each spike on its timeline is directly correlated with Masters set spoilers. I love Horizon Canopy and I'm stoked it's finally getting an actual reprint, but I also know the intrinsic value of the card and that value is not North of $30 if/when there's an adequate supply released into the market. Hell, Karakas fell below $30 at one point following its EM reprinting. I'm sure players/stores will sit on them for as long as they can in order to keep that price afloat, but when people start cracking packs of IM it'll just be a matter of time before every Timmy and Tom start pulling that "$50 rare" and go to cash in by undercutting market prices. Sucks if you spent an exorbitant amount of money on canopies within the last year or so, but that's the power of supply and demand.
At the rate
HasbroWotC has been pulling the trigger on reprints, these situations where a card's value is largely determined by moderate demand & low supply are going to be less prevalent going forward.HasbroWotC has solved the problem of how to make profit off of non-standard players and the solution appears to be Masters/premium sets. Call me crazy, but so long as players are willing to shell out $10/booster for the same (actually less amount of) cardboard then I wouldn't be surprised to see the number of "premium" sets rival that of standard sets during a given fiscal year. Why do you think every RL card in existence has been getting bought out over the last few months? Hasbro doesn't want to go full Konami and start printing Modern/eternal format staples into the ground, but it appears that they sure as ***** will try and see how far they can go with it.Link to Discord server where anybody from MTGS can keep up with thread topics while everything is being sorted out with the new site.
If there is enough agreement on a card's price (IE: lots of copies sell for that price) then that IS the card's price. "Price memory" stays high as long as copies continue to sell at that high price. If we, the players, refuse to pay those spiked buyout prices, eventually they will have be lowered in order to actually sell the cards. Since there is literally no regulation whatsoever, it's almost the purest form of supply and demand you could possible see. The Magic singles market is something they should use as examples in high school economics classes because it's absolutely fascinating to see the different impacts various elements have on a completely unrelated market.
But correct, buying out and doubling the price of a card doesn't, in of itself, create price memory. But if enough sellers catch on and raise their prices to match AND, MOST IMPORTANTLY, people CONTINUE TO BUY at that inflated price, then Price Memory will hold as long as there are people willing to pay that price.
But I totally agree with seeing things reprinted. Even if I have thousands "invested" in Magic, almost everything I own is something I want to play. The only actual spec target I picked up were several dozen playsets of KTK fetchlands. Prices really don't mean anything to me unless I have to buy it for a deck; at which point lower prices are always better. The only time I would wish for high prices is if I ever sell out of the game and want to cash in on my collection.
UR ....... WUBR ........... WB ............. RGW ........ UBR ....... WUB .... BGU
Spells / Blink & Combo / Token Grind / Dino Tribal / Draw Cards / Zombies / Reanimate
There are, of course, certain exceptions. The flip walkers from Origins, because DFC are hard to reprint unless you do a large number of them. Gideon in particular will be popular as Gideon tribal may become a thing in Modern and EDH. Also the Expedition/Masterpiece/Invocation series has enormous potential over the next 5 years. I'm picking up those where and when I can.
The sheer amount of money that moved into the RL in the past 2 months makes any and all RL cards a great purchase for future sale. The Dark will be next, and I've quietly been stocking up on RL cards in anticipation. The USC document is no longer available, but the Wayback Machine has it archived at https://web.archive.org/web/20151225142722/usc.edu/dept/Deckmasters/archive/mtg/printrun.txt
Some of these cards are seriously rare, and are truly the only real place to put one's money if you are looking to make a profit or speculate in Magic. The top end is going to be graded examples of the iconic cards. In the end, collectors rule the day, because they get fanatical about it, and the low populations of mint copies can only get lower, since this is a playing, shuffling game. Sportscards do not deal with this. Running over to Beckett.com to look at the pop report of graded power 10 shows this. If you can find a Power 10 card graded 9.5 or higher for less than a 50% increase over the regular price, it's a steal. The window is fast closing, as someone has put what looks to be $20 or $30K into buying up RL cards from Alpha to Legends, with a few The Dark cards. The money will keep coming in.
Just a heads-up, there is From The Vault: Transform that will be released this November with 15 dual faced cards. I'm pretty sure Jace, at the very least, will be included in there. If you have speculated on the flipwalkers, I believe now may be a good time to sell, before that set is spoiled.
WBC Eldrazi & Taxes CBW
UR Keep on Cantripin' (UR Phoenix) RU
WU Surprise! It's not UW Control! (UW Midrange) UW
BG The Rock, Straight BG
U Mono-Blue Fish U
RBW Mardu Pyromancer BWR
RG Rabble! Rabble! (GR Blood Moon Aggro) GR
Legacy
W Death & Taxes W
I'd wait closer till the end of September. There are still three more FNM dates on which the promo will be given away.
Link to Discord server where anybody from MTGS can keep up with thread topics while everything is being sorted out with the new site.
The set isn't being drafted anymore and there will always be demand (legacy, modern) for it. I wouldn't expect the price to drop significantly until it rotates.
pucatrade
big receipts
alpha mox emerald
beta time walk
4 goyfs received
3 liliana of the veil
4 karn liberated
3 force of will
4 grove of the burnwillows
snapcaster mage
3 horizon canopy
2 full art damnation