I personally feel like Jace will drop a small bit when Oath comes out. The attention is diverted to a newer set and occasionally Wizards prints something to lessen the blow of a powerful card. This is just my personal opinion, but I feel a few weeks after Oath of the Gatewatch is out, Jace will be $40. Let's see if I'm right!
I'm not sure I agree, but I think it is safe to wait. Jace's price has no natural reason to go up much in the months leading up to Oath.
When Oath comes out, Jace will already have already been out for 6 months. That's enough time for WotC to have found a "solution", provided that they were looking for one.
Here is how it works - a set is given a 16 month period from design through to release (known information from MaRo's blog), so they started designing Oath in September of 2014. Origins came out in July, so they were about 10-11 months into the creation of Oath at that point. I think Jace took about a month to really take off, so now we are closing in on them having only 4 months until the set hits shelves. As far as I know there is no public information on how long design and development of a set takes, but given what I know about the printing industry (having worked in it) I am 95% certain that it takes more than four months to layout art (lets assume they use a piece of art they already had for the card), finalize the proofs, print, die-cut, package, and distribute a MTG set. My conservative guess is it probably takes about six months. They were well past the point of being able to react to JVP in the meta by the time he was.
That, however, is if what you are suggesting is that they were reacting to JVP in the meta. Perhaps you were suggesting that they were reacting to JVP after it was being tested with Oath in the FFL, and that is possible, though there are a lot on these boards who would not put much faith in them catching the price and metagame impact of Jace before the hive mind got a hold of it.
There could be a reaction to JVP being in the wild in SOI, though even then my guess is it would have to have been a card that they pushed in development or had to go back and "order" from design after they had primarily passed it on. I doubt there is that much of a one way path from design and development, meaning after design passes it on they probably have a little give and take from development as they balance the set to their liking. but my guess is that MaRo (lead design) and friends have largely moved on while Stoddard (lead developer) and crew are working.
The only reason Kahns still has some kudo points is the onslaught fetch land reprints, so in my mind BFZ should bomb out once things start rotating.
I haven't added the cards for Modern or Standard, but I would guess that Khans has at least as strong an impact on the metagame as Fate Reforged, and DTK had a much weaker influence. That is probably even if you exclude lands, and I think excluding lands in a big mistake. The lands are probably the single biggest defining factor in this metagame we are in. Easy to fix three and four color Standard decks do not exist without good fetching.
Sales wise BFZ will go down since it will only one pack of it will be drafted after Oath, but honestly there is no reason that the people who still buy BFZ for the EXP lottery won't keep doing it. Oath has a very different set of EXP cards that appeal to a very different MTG fan. If people are looking for the EXP cards with the broadest appeal then BFZ is still the best bet. BFZ will probably not "bomb out".
I think the price on Lili is fair, but not so great that it is a must buy. She isn't really a $100 card anymore. For example (And I guess a PSA for anyone that wants to jump on it), there is a MP Lili on tcgplayer right now for $74 shipped, and what looks to be about a dozen others right in the $85 range. So, while still a fair deal, I'm not so sure it is a snap buy. I guess it depends on how easily you could trade them to make that $10 profit worth it, rather than just spending the initial $75 on cards that you do need.
what makes you say she's not an $100 card anymore, I was looking at getting one on face to face for $125 CDN but I might look around locally first
would you wait for her to drop?
I've heard a lot about her being reprinted in Shadows Over Innistrad. There was a MaRo article about how she was slotted into M15 but was pushed back to another set to prevent Mono Black warping the format. Then, there was another on his blog about how we are guaranteed to see Liliana in Shadows.
I would, of course, take it with a grain of salt, but there is always a possiblity she gets reprinted in April and drops to around $40.
He didn't say that she was pushed back, he said that she was taken out of the file in favor of Liliana Vess. For all we know, LotV went right back into the "never print again" pile.
Sales wise BFZ will go down since it will only one pack of it will be drafted after Oath, but honestly there is no reason that the people who still buy BFZ for the EXP lottery won't keep doing it.
How many people do that, though? I don't know if you or anyone even has the answer or how to go about getting said answer, but I do wonder if there's that many people who do that, at least compared to the Jace lottery (Origins) or the fetchland lottery (Khans).
Completely anecdotal, but a lot of the younger drafters at my store tend to pick up packs of BFZ for their prize to try and rip an expedition. I wouldn't be surprised at all if that was the norm among a fair amount of players.
How many people do that, though? I don't know if you or anyone even has the answer or how to go about getting said answer, but I do wonder if there's that many people who do that, at least compared to the Jace lottery (Origins) or the fetchland lottery (Khans).
My guess? Probably more than Origins, and less than Khans. If you have the patience to sit on cards then Khans is a stupid good lottery, IMO.
Right now the bulk of the people buying packs are Limited players and those who are chasing EXP lands. When 1/3 of the Limited market goes away there will still be the EXP hunters in play because there is no reason not to keep doing it. My only point is that the only people that will stop buying BFZ and buy Oath instead will be Limited, and even then they will still buy one pack for draft. I think that will drop sales for sure, but not bomb them out.
I think the price on Lili is fair, but not so great that it is a must buy. She isn't really a $100 card anymore. For example (And I guess a PSA for anyone that wants to jump on it), there is a MP Lili on tcgplayer right now for $74 shipped, and what looks to be about a dozen others right in the $85 range. So, while still a fair deal, I'm not so sure it is a snap buy. I guess it depends on how easily you could trade them to make that $10 profit worth it, rather than just spending the initial $75 on cards that you do need.
what makes you say she's not an $100 card anymore, I was looking at getting one on face to face for $125 CDN but I might look around locally first
would you wait for her to drop?
I've heard a lot about her being reprinted in Shadows Over Innistrad. There was a MaRo article about how she was slotted into M15 but was pushed back to another set to prevent Mono Black warping the format. Then, there was another on his blog about how we are guaranteed to see Liliana in Shadows.
I would, of course, take it with a grain of salt, but there is always a possiblity she gets reprinted in April and drops to around $40.
IMHO I think the idea of Liliana getting printed went up for me when the reprint of Geist of Saint Traft got announced.
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He didn't say that she was pushed back, he said that she was taken out of the file in favor of Liliana Vess. For all we know, LotV went right back into the "never print again" pile.
Eh not necessarily. They shelved her last minute because of her interaction with: Mono black devotion being too good at the time, the upcoming delve cards, and thoughtseize being legal at the same time. Liliana isn't very good whenever there are tons of creature decks around. Since standard is now going toward "creatures matter" style sets, Liliana can still get reprinted IMHO.
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I agree with the Geist Reprint hinting towards her also being reprinted. I mean what better time to print her than in the return to her home plane?
It is worth noting that geist is only spoiled for the duel decks though. So if he is only in the supplemental product, that could be a little off-putting.
I agree with the Geist Reprint hinting towards her also being reprinted. I mean what better time to print her than in the return to her home plane?
It is worth noting that geist is only spoiled for the duel decks though. So if he is only in the supplemental product, that could be a little off-putting.
He most likely will be, they've been on a long pattern of reprint/newcard in the duel decks going back to Return to Ravnica, maybe earlier I'm just not remembering.
Anyway I think we will see liliana in the second set of the oath block. The first sets usually have other good value and the second sets have a chase card or two. Another reason she'll probably be reprinted is because like you mentioned they returned to her home plane. They want to reprint her as they said when they were going to in magic 2015 but she was too powerful in standard. So now they really can't advance her in the plot until she dumps the veil, which would remove reprint possibility which means they would only have modern masters. Those sell well enough on there own without her I doubt they'll waste the opportunity to have her be the value of a standard set.
Value is good. But Dredgevine isn't supposed to be about value. It's supposed to be about V-8; 2000 pounds of nitro boosted war vegetables. The more velocity, the better.
Modern: DredgeVine EDH: Gisela, Blade of Goldnight Anima Standard:
Completely anecdotal, but a lot of the younger drafters at my store tend to pick up packs of BFZ for their prize to try and rip an expedition. I wouldn't be surprised at all if that was the norm among a fair amount of players.
This is what I do. I decide to go for BfZ for prize packs for the Full Art basics, but mostly for the Expedition lottery. I have only pulled one though . I decided not to pick Origins because I don't really have a use for Jace and he is the big money card. Liliana isn't bad either but I don't have a good use for her either.
However, when Oath is released I can already tell that I will be excited to open these packs (whereas BfZ was always just 'meh'). There are already quite a few EDH playables spoiled, and I wouldn't mind most of the Expeditions as the filters are good for Modern and I play 8 of the other 10 in EDH. The only one I would be disappointed to open is Tectonic Edge and honestly the one I am most looking forward to getting at some point is the one I don't play in anything (Forbidden Orchard). I just like the art on it that much
I am sure everyone is different, but I wouldn't be surprise if BfZ is currently opened because of the Expedition lottery and from a money standpoint, I think BfZ still has the more valuable Expeditions in the Fetches. Wasteland in Oath is nice, but the fetches still beat out the other 19 in Oath by a wide margin (in my opinion). Maybe people will keep opening them hoping to get fetches.
He didn't say that she was pushed back, he said that she was taken out of the file in favor of Liliana Vess. For all we know, LotV went right back into the "never print again" pile.
Eh not necessarily. They shelved her last minute because of her interaction with: Mono black devotion being too good at the time, the upcoming delve cards, and thoughtseize being legal at the same time. Liliana isn't very good whenever there are tons of creature decks around. Since standard is now going toward "creatures matter" style sets, Liliana can still get reprinted IMHO.
The key part of my post was the "For all we know." We have literally no insight into what R&D's plans with Liliana are besides the fact that LotV was slated for M15 and then cut because it was "too strong for Standard."
There's also this, for the record. While Maro isn't the end all be all on what gets reprinted or not, he knows more than we do and answered that question relatively recently (long after M15 had rotated from Standard).
Completely anecdotal, but a lot of the younger drafters at my store tend to pick up packs of BFZ for their prize to try and rip an expedition. I wouldn't be surprised at all if that was the norm among a fair amount of players.
As of the last time I looked (a month ago?) BFZ packs had the highest return, even above Khans with their fetchlands). If you're just looking for EV, it's BFZ. Store credit for singles is still a better option, but many stores pay out in packs, and if you're getting packs BFZ is your best choice.
I agree with the Geist Reprint hinting towards her also being reprinted. I mean what better time to print her than in the return to her home plane?
It is worth noting that geist is only spoiled for the duel decks though. So if he is only in the supplemental product, that could be a little off-putting.
We have not gotten too many direct reprints, so for me knowing Geist is being reprint, makes me think the others wont be. I think they will save LotV and Snappy for Modern Masters type sets.
Well I don't believe GoST is gonna be in the actual set, rather it is a part of the dual deck. Personally though, I agree with you and think LotV and SCM are MM material.
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Modern GB Rock U Flooding Merfolk RUG Delver Midrange WU Monks UW Tempo Geist GW Bogle GW Liege UR Tron B Vampires
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Goblins
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Affinity EDH W Akroma GBW Ghave BRU Thrax GR Ruric I advocate for the elimination of the combo archetype in Modern. I believe it is degenerate and unfun by its very nature and will always limit design space and cause unnecessary bans.
I, for one, am excited about the potential price decrease Liliana will have. Just the idea of her being reprinted in SOI will probably drop her from her price of $110 to around $70-$80. To me, that's almost as good as a reprint.
Geist appears to have already dropped from $18 to $10 on SCG.
I, for one, am excited about the potential price decrease Liliana will have. Just the idea of her being reprinted in SOI will probably drop her from her price of $110 to around $70-$80. To me, that's almost as good as a reprint.
Geist appears to have already dropped from $18 to $10 on SCG.
If she gets reprinted, her price will be like around $30-40 imho. She already can be had for like $80 if you look around.
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I, for one, am excited about the potential price decrease Liliana will have. Just the idea of her being reprinted in SOI will probably drop her from her price of $110 to around $70-$80. To me, that's almost as good as a reprint.
Geist appears to have already dropped from $18 to $10 on SCG.
If she gets reprinted, her price will be like around $30-40 imho. She already can be had for like $80 if you look around.
Oh absolutely, I'm just saying that, in the off chance that she isn't reprinted in SOI, the speculation alone will be satisfactory to me because it will drop her price either way. I would absolutely love to get a set of Lillys for $200 or less.
I, for one, am excited about the potential price decrease Liliana will have. Just the idea of her being reprinted in SOI will probably drop her from her price of $110 to around $70-$80. To me, that's almost as good as a reprint.
Geist appears to have already dropped from $18 to $10 on SCG.
If she gets reprinted, her price will be like around $30-40 imho. She already can be had for like $80 if you look around.
Another reason I dont think LotV will be reprinted in a block set and it will be kept to the Modern Masters series.
I also dont think she would go under $50 with the first reprinting, probably hover around the $60-$70 mark. Also depends on if they use new art. New art would make a split marker like we see with Goyf, Bob, and the other costly mythics with multiple art.
If I had to bet on it I'd say they are definitely saving Lily for Modern Masters 2017. Once she is reprinted the price will probably go down to about $50, because I'm pretty sure it's gonna go well over a hundred between now and then.
Edit: To clarify by "well over a hundred" I mean that I think she'll top out between $125-150.
If she goes to $125-$150 and is reprinted in a MM set, she wont drop below $100 the first printing. People forget cards have price memory in this market. Now if she is reprinted in a block set (something I dont foresee because of her price) it would have to be a large set opened a lot for her to dip below the $100 mark.
If she goes to $125-$150 and is reprinted in a MM set, she wont drop below $100 the first printing. People forget cards have price memory in this market. Now if she is reprinted in a block set (something I dont foresee because of her price) it would have to be a large set opened a lot for her to dip below the $100 mark.
Maybe $60-$75 is more realistic supposing a hypothetical MM 2017 reprint & hypthetical pre-reprint price of $125-150. I agree price memory is a thing, but there aren't a lot of examples of cards being worth over $100 and being reprinted in Modern Masters (well, one :). If I'm remembering correctly the pattern of mythics being reprinted in MM sets is something like they drop about half of their value. Vendilion Clique went from $75 to about $35-40. Kiki-Jiki went from about $30 to about $10-15. Emrakul went from $50 to about $25. Tarmo went from $200 to $100-$125, etc. I also am hoping and expecting that the 2017 Modern Masters has a higher print run than the first two sets, and maintains this pattern. If Lily spikes as high as $150, I'd expect to see $75 Liliana's come MM 2017. If she goes up to just $125, I'd expect we see her in the $60-$65 range.
I, for one, am excited about the potential price decrease Liliana will have. Just the idea of her being reprinted in SOI will probably drop her from her price of $110 to around $70-$80. To me, that's almost as good as a reprint.
Geist appears to have already dropped from $18 to $10 on SCG.
If she gets reprinted, her price will be like around $30-40 imho. She already can be had for like $80 if you look around.
Another reason I dont think LotV will be reprinted in a block set and it will be kept to the Modern Masters series.
I also dont think she would go under $50 with the first reprinting, probably hover around the $60-$70 mark. Also depends on if they use new art. New art would make a split marker like we see with Goyf, Bob, and the other costly mythics with multiple art.
You really underestimate the fact that she will be in a extremely opened set since people will crack packs open just to find Lili. If she is in SOI there is no way that she is $50 or more.
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If she goes to $125-$150 and is reprinted in a MM set, she wont drop below $100 the first printing. People forget cards have price memory in this market. Now if she is reprinted in a block set (something I dont foresee because of her price) it would have to be a large set opened a lot for her to dip below the $100 mark.
Maybe $60-$75 is more realistic supposing a hypothetical MM 2017 reprint & hypthetical pre-reprint price of $125-150. I agree price memory is a thing, but there aren't a lot of examples of cards being worth over $100 and being reprinted in Modern Masters (well, one :). If I'm remembering correctly the pattern of mythics being reprinted in MM sets is something like they drop about half of their value. Vendilion Clique went from $75 to about $35-40. Kiki-Jiki went from about $30 to about $10-15. Emrakul went from $50 to about $25. Tarmo went from $200 to $100-$125, etc. I also am hoping and expecting that the 2017 Modern Masters has a higher print run than the first two sets, and maintains this pattern. If Lily spikes as high as $150, I'd expect to see $75 Liliana's come MM 2017. If she goes up to just $125, I'd expect we see her in the $60-$65 range.
You need to go back and look at the first reprint for MM2013. Goyfs were $110ish prior to the set coming out, dipped to $90ish, then climbed to $200 and sat between $150 and $200 until the second reprint of MM2015. Clique was $70ish before mm2013 and dropped to the $40-$50 mark, then climbed bcak up to the $60-$70 area before it was printed again in MM2015. It took 2 reprintings and a Judge foil to get Bob (a card not played a lot in the format) to go from $75 to $30-$40. Kiki was reprinted twice and had a spot in a vault set, to get it down to the sub $20 price tag. Thats a lot of printing to get a card down.
The bigger thing is what set it gets reprinted in. Like I have said, I doubt highly LotV gets reprinted in return to INN. With all the return sets we have seen to planes. We have not seen a lot of exact reprints. We get functional reprints with similar names and new abilities.
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You really underestimate the fact that she will be in a extremely opened set since people will crack packs open just to find Lili. If she is in SOI there is no way that she is $50 or more.
First I dont think LotV will be reprinted in the new INN set. See above. If she is reprinted in a MM set, she probably will not drop much. I think you are over estimating how much product would be opened for a single card. The EV for a set has to be pretty good for the masses to chase a bunch of cards in the set, in turn opening a bunch of product. We have seen how much gets opened of low EV sets. Its still yet to be seen what the EV of the new set will be. If Wotc puts LotV in the new INN as the only chase card or one of only a hand ful making the EV low, I dont think a lot of product will be opened.
Hey guys, I recently started playing Modern, and my lack of fetches/limited number of shocks is most of what pushed me to play Merfolk (though I also already had a lot of the pieces for it).
If I wanted to buy into the landbase that would help me the most in my future Modern career, what would people recommend picking up? I've heard that now, at the near end of the Khans Standard, the Onslaught Fetches are probably about as cheap as they'll be for a while, so I figured if I wanted to pick up a playset or three now would be the time.
So what colors (historically and predictively) have been/will be most used? Which fetches would be the most helpful to pick up now?
Considering potentially grabbing a set of all five, but that'd be a hefty pricetag. If some people could maybe rate them best to pick up to least used, that'd be great.
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I'm not sure I agree, but I think it is safe to wait. Jace's price has no natural reason to go up much in the months leading up to Oath.
Here is how it works - a set is given a 16 month period from design through to release (known information from MaRo's blog), so they started designing Oath in September of 2014. Origins came out in July, so they were about 10-11 months into the creation of Oath at that point. I think Jace took about a month to really take off, so now we are closing in on them having only 4 months until the set hits shelves. As far as I know there is no public information on how long design and development of a set takes, but given what I know about the printing industry (having worked in it) I am 95% certain that it takes more than four months to layout art (lets assume they use a piece of art they already had for the card), finalize the proofs, print, die-cut, package, and distribute a MTG set. My conservative guess is it probably takes about six months. They were well past the point of being able to react to JVP in the meta by the time he was.
That, however, is if what you are suggesting is that they were reacting to JVP in the meta. Perhaps you were suggesting that they were reacting to JVP after it was being tested with Oath in the FFL, and that is possible, though there are a lot on these boards who would not put much faith in them catching the price and metagame impact of Jace before the hive mind got a hold of it.
There could be a reaction to JVP being in the wild in SOI, though even then my guess is it would have to have been a card that they pushed in development or had to go back and "order" from design after they had primarily passed it on. I doubt there is that much of a one way path from design and development, meaning after design passes it on they probably have a little give and take from development as they balance the set to their liking. but my guess is that MaRo (lead design) and friends have largely moved on while Stoddard (lead developer) and crew are working.
I haven't added the cards for Modern or Standard, but I would guess that Khans has at least as strong an impact on the metagame as Fate Reforged, and DTK had a much weaker influence. That is probably even if you exclude lands, and I think excluding lands in a big mistake. The lands are probably the single biggest defining factor in this metagame we are in. Easy to fix three and four color Standard decks do not exist without good fetching.
Sales wise BFZ will go down since it will only one pack of it will be drafted after Oath, but honestly there is no reason that the people who still buy BFZ for the EXP lottery won't keep doing it. Oath has a very different set of EXP cards that appeal to a very different MTG fan. If people are looking for the EXP cards with the broadest appeal then BFZ is still the best bet. BFZ will probably not "bomb out".
Reprint Opt for Modern!!
FREE DIG THOROUGH TIME!
PLAY MORE ROUGE DECKS!
I've heard a lot about her being reprinted in Shadows Over Innistrad. There was a MaRo article about how she was slotted into M15 but was pushed back to another set to prevent Mono Black warping the format. Then, there was another on his blog about how we are guaranteed to see Liliana in Shadows.
I would, of course, take it with a grain of salt, but there is always a possiblity she gets reprinted in April and drops to around $40.
URW Control
WBG Abzan
GRW Burn
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GR Rosheen Meanderer
URW Control
WBG Abzan
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GR Rosheen Meanderer
My guess? Probably more than Origins, and less than Khans. If you have the patience to sit on cards then Khans is a stupid good lottery, IMO.
Right now the bulk of the people buying packs are Limited players and those who are chasing EXP lands. When 1/3 of the Limited market goes away there will still be the EXP hunters in play because there is no reason not to keep doing it. My only point is that the only people that will stop buying BFZ and buy Oath instead will be Limited, and even then they will still buy one pack for draft. I think that will drop sales for sure, but not bomb them out.
Reprint Opt for Modern!!
FREE DIG THOROUGH TIME!
PLAY MORE ROUGE DECKS!
IMHO I think the idea of Liliana getting printed went up for me when the reprint of Geist of Saint Traft got announced.
Decks I'm playing in Modern right now:
URB Grixis Reveler (http://www.mtgvault.com/supast4r7/decks/modern-grixis-reveler/)
UB Faeries (http://www.mtgvault.com/supast4r7/decks/ub-fae-2/)
UW Azorious Control (http://www.mtgvault.com/supast4r7/decks/modern-ojutai-control-2/)
Eh not necessarily. They shelved her last minute because of her interaction with: Mono black devotion being too good at the time, the upcoming delve cards, and thoughtseize being legal at the same time. Liliana isn't very good whenever there are tons of creature decks around. Since standard is now going toward "creatures matter" style sets, Liliana can still get reprinted IMHO.
Decks I'm playing in Modern right now:
URB Grixis Reveler (http://www.mtgvault.com/supast4r7/decks/modern-grixis-reveler/)
UB Faeries (http://www.mtgvault.com/supast4r7/decks/ub-fae-2/)
UW Azorious Control (http://www.mtgvault.com/supast4r7/decks/modern-ojutai-control-2/)
It is worth noting that geist is only spoiled for the duel decks though. So if he is only in the supplemental product, that could be a little off-putting.
Anyway I think we will see liliana in the second set of the oath block. The first sets usually have other good value and the second sets have a chase card or two. Another reason she'll probably be reprinted is because like you mentioned they returned to her home plane. They want to reprint her as they said when they were going to in magic 2015 but she was too powerful in standard. So now they really can't advance her in the plot until she dumps the veil, which would remove reprint possibility which means they would only have modern masters. Those sell well enough on there own without her I doubt they'll waste the opportunity to have her be the value of a standard set.
Modern:
EDH:
Standard:
However, when Oath is released I can already tell that I will be excited to open these packs (whereas BfZ was always just 'meh'). There are already quite a few EDH playables spoiled, and I wouldn't mind most of the Expeditions as the filters are good for Modern and I play 8 of the other 10 in EDH. The only one I would be disappointed to open is Tectonic Edge and honestly the one I am most looking forward to getting at some point is the one I don't play in anything (Forbidden Orchard). I just like the art on it that much
I am sure everyone is different, but I wouldn't be surprise if BfZ is currently opened because of the Expedition lottery and from a money standpoint, I think BfZ still has the more valuable Expeditions in the Fetches. Wasteland in Oath is nice, but the fetches still beat out the other 19 in Oath by a wide margin (in my opinion). Maybe people will keep opening them hoping to get fetches.
The key part of my post was the "For all we know." We have literally no insight into what R&D's plans with Liliana are besides the fact that LotV was slated for M15 and then cut because it was "too strong for Standard."
There's also this, for the record. While Maro isn't the end all be all on what gets reprinted or not, he knows more than we do and answered that question relatively recently (long after M15 had rotated from Standard).
URW Control
WBG Abzan
GRW Burn
EDH
GR Rosheen Meanderer
As of the last time I looked (a month ago?) BFZ packs had the highest return, even above Khans with their fetchlands). If you're just looking for EV, it's BFZ. Store credit for singles is still a better option, but many stores pay out in packs, and if you're getting packs BFZ is your best choice.
We have not gotten too many direct reprints, so for me knowing Geist is being reprint, makes me think the others wont be. I think they will save LotV and Snappy for Modern Masters type sets.
GB Rock
U Flooding Merfolk
RUG Delver Midrange
WU Monks
UW Tempo Geist
GW Bogle
GW Liege
UR Tron
B Vampires
Affinity
Legacy
Fish
Goblins
Burn
Reanimator
Dredge
Affinity
EDH
W Akroma
GBW Ghave
BRU Thrax
GR Ruric
I advocate for the elimination of the combo archetype in Modern. I believe it is degenerate and unfun by its very nature and will always limit design space and cause unnecessary bans.
Geist appears to have already dropped from $18 to $10 on SCG.
If she gets reprinted, her price will be like around $30-40 imho. She already can be had for like $80 if you look around.
Decks I'm playing in Modern right now:
URB Grixis Reveler (http://www.mtgvault.com/supast4r7/decks/modern-grixis-reveler/)
UB Faeries (http://www.mtgvault.com/supast4r7/decks/ub-fae-2/)
UW Azorious Control (http://www.mtgvault.com/supast4r7/decks/modern-ojutai-control-2/)
Oh absolutely, I'm just saying that, in the off chance that she isn't reprinted in SOI, the speculation alone will be satisfactory to me because it will drop her price either way. I would absolutely love to get a set of Lillys for $200 or less.
Another reason I dont think LotV will be reprinted in a block set and it will be kept to the Modern Masters series.
I also dont think she would go under $50 with the first reprinting, probably hover around the $60-$70 mark. Also depends on if they use new art. New art would make a split marker like we see with Goyf, Bob, and the other costly mythics with multiple art.
Edit: To clarify by "well over a hundred" I mean that I think she'll top out between $125-150.
Maybe $60-$75 is more realistic supposing a hypothetical MM 2017 reprint & hypthetical pre-reprint price of $125-150. I agree price memory is a thing, but there aren't a lot of examples of cards being worth over $100 and being reprinted in Modern Masters (well, one :). If I'm remembering correctly the pattern of mythics being reprinted in MM sets is something like they drop about half of their value. Vendilion Clique went from $75 to about $35-40. Kiki-Jiki went from about $30 to about $10-15. Emrakul went from $50 to about $25. Tarmo went from $200 to $100-$125, etc. I also am hoping and expecting that the 2017 Modern Masters has a higher print run than the first two sets, and maintains this pattern. If Lily spikes as high as $150, I'd expect to see $75 Liliana's come MM 2017. If she goes up to just $125, I'd expect we see her in the $60-$65 range.
You really underestimate the fact that she will be in a extremely opened set since people will crack packs open just to find Lili. If she is in SOI there is no way that she is $50 or more.
Decks I'm playing in Modern right now:
URB Grixis Reveler (http://www.mtgvault.com/supast4r7/decks/modern-grixis-reveler/)
UB Faeries (http://www.mtgvault.com/supast4r7/decks/ub-fae-2/)
UW Azorious Control (http://www.mtgvault.com/supast4r7/decks/modern-ojutai-control-2/)
You need to go back and look at the first reprint for MM2013. Goyfs were $110ish prior to the set coming out, dipped to $90ish, then climbed to $200 and sat between $150 and $200 until the second reprint of MM2015. Clique was $70ish before mm2013 and dropped to the $40-$50 mark, then climbed bcak up to the $60-$70 area before it was printed again in MM2015. It took 2 reprintings and a Judge foil to get Bob (a card not played a lot in the format) to go from $75 to $30-$40. Kiki was reprinted twice and had a spot in a vault set, to get it down to the sub $20 price tag. Thats a lot of printing to get a card down.
The bigger thing is what set it gets reprinted in. Like I have said, I doubt highly LotV gets reprinted in return to INN. With all the return sets we have seen to planes. We have not seen a lot of exact reprints. We get functional reprints with similar names and new abilities.
First I dont think LotV will be reprinted in the new INN set. See above. If she is reprinted in a MM set, she probably will not drop much. I think you are over estimating how much product would be opened for a single card. The EV for a set has to be pretty good for the masses to chase a bunch of cards in the set, in turn opening a bunch of product. We have seen how much gets opened of low EV sets. Its still yet to be seen what the EV of the new set will be. If Wotc puts LotV in the new INN as the only chase card or one of only a hand ful making the EV low, I dont think a lot of product will be opened.
If I wanted to buy into the landbase that would help me the most in my future Modern career, what would people recommend picking up? I've heard that now, at the near end of the Khans Standard, the Onslaught Fetches are probably about as cheap as they'll be for a while, so I figured if I wanted to pick up a playset or three now would be the time.
So what colors (historically and predictively) have been/will be most used? Which fetches would be the most helpful to pick up now?
Considering potentially grabbing a set of all five, but that'd be a hefty pricetag. If some people could maybe rate them best to pick up to least used, that'd be great.