But, if they reprint sfm in standard, it could go down 10
If is the key word there. It could also jump up to $100 if WotC decides to randomly add it to the RL. Neither hypothetical is helpful for analyzing how/if SFM stock is affected by current events.
I'm one of those conspiracy theorists that believe they are holding off unbanning her because of equity. Using JTMS as an example, they can easily squeeze some decent dollars out of her if they unban her and move quickly with a reprint. However, this would be small potatoes compared to getting Arena rolling at full power. Every game maker knows the power of gambling with loot boxes and how much money they can get from people. Once they have people playing for free, it wouldn't be long before a lot of suckers start jamming for the currency.
Private Mod Note
():
Rollback Post to RevisionRollBack
1. (Ravnica Allegiance): You can't keep a good esper control deck down... Or Wilderness Reclamation... or Gates...
2. (War of the Spark): Guys, I know what we need! We need a cycle of really idiotic flavor text victory cards! Jace's Triumph...
3. (War of the Spark): Lets make the format with control have even more control!
But, if they reprint sfm in standard, it could go down 10
If is the key word there. It could also jump up to $100 if WotC decides to randomly add it to the RL. Neither hypothetical is helpful for analyzing how/if SFM stock is affected by current events.
I'm one of those conspiracy theorists that believe they are holding off unbanning her because of equity. Using JTMS as an example, they can easily squeeze some decent dollars out of her if they unban her and move quickly with a reprint. However, this would be small potatoes compared to getting Arena rolling at full power. Every game maker knows the power of gambling with loot boxes and how much money they can get from people. Once they have people playing for free, it wouldn't be long before a lot of suckers start jamming for the currency.
i dont think its a conspiracy theory, just a rational business decision. unbanning a high profile card that is already expensive and has a pretty low deckbuilding cost WITHOUT a reprint would be stupid. i dont know why people are so willing to complain about card availability, but when wotc cares suddenly it becomes a greedy cashgrab. im not an economist, but even i can see that it isnt always zero sum.
Private Mod Note
():
Rollback Post to RevisionRollBack
Modern: UWGSnow-Bant Control BURGrixis Death's Shadow GWBCoCo Elves WCDeath and Taxes (sold)
Which brings up the point that nothing about SFM feels like God mode, but since everyone knows she is getting unbanned at some point I let the anomaly slide.
This would still be true if it was said like four years ago. Everyone knows the sun will burn out at some point, but that doesn't really affect anything in the present. But yeah, I'm still bullish on picking up copies whenever she's under $20. However, I haven't picked up any lately as we're still waiting for her value to plateau following the July B&R announcement when everyone was sure she'd finally be liberated. Suckers. With that being said and another B&R come/gone plus "the end of Masters sets", where do ya'll see her price settling? Like clockwork, she typically falls back below $20 after a B&R announcement, but I'm not sure if that will be the case this time around due to prices increasing across the board for staples/specs not reprinted in UMA.
i think SFM will keep appreciating, but the rate will peter off towards 30-35. that said im not convinced buying up staples will give the return some might be expecting. sure the masters line is coming to an indefinite end, but that hardly equates to no (or at least less) reprints on the horizon. i think wizards just realized, like many of us here and elsewhere, that the masters line just wasnt achieving any of its particular goals well. this explains their announcement earlier this year where they wanted to focus on themes and subsequently drafting; then their complete 180 with UMA and 'yeah nevermind its just ending'. to me there was an implicit addendum of 'year nevermind its just ending, because we have something else in mind'.
Private Mod Note
():
Rollback Post to RevisionRollBack
Modern: UWGSnow-Bant Control BURGrixis Death's Shadow GWBCoCo Elves WCDeath and Taxes (sold)
FTC is looking into lootboxes for possible regulation, as of some stories breaking into the news pipeline today. So WOTC may have arrived just a little too late to the abusive bandwagon. I hope that's the case, anyways.
There is no deck that is dead against an Ancestral Vision.
There are decks that will be basically dead and can scoop up their cards against a turn 3 Batterskull
There is no deck that is dead against an Ancestral Vision.
There are decks that will be basically dead and can scoop up their cards against a turn 3 Batterskull
Path.
Abrade.
Push.
Vapor Snag.
Nature's Claim.
Any deck that is dead to a Turn 3 4/4 Artifact (singular!) Deserves to die.
Any deck that is dead to a Turn 3 4/4 Artifact (singular!) Deserves to die.
This. And so much this. It cannot be restated enough.
If your jank pile can't deal with a Batterskull on 3 while your opponent effectively does nothing else (since it takes 4 mana over 2 turns to accomplish this), then I've got some bad news for you about every other deck in Modern.
FTC is looking into lootboxes for possible regulation, as of some stories breaking into the news pipeline today. So WOTC may have arrived just a little too late to the abusive bandwagon. I hope that's the case, anyways.
like implications for physical booster packs? or just the digital front?
as far as i know the regulations concerning lootboxes are a matter of transparency. wizards has been pretty upfront with the probabilities of getting whatever outcomes; be it arena boosters, ICRs, or MTGO treasure boxes. if its just this the worst outcome is that wotc, or any other game with lootbox-esque features has to uphold some level of value per dollar spent; and even that is extremely unlikely seeing as how it would be a cluster#!%.
outside of that, the biggest hit would be if some connection were made between lootboxes and gambling, meaning the games themselves would be regulated according to gambling laws. considering how large of an industry this would effect, i dont see it ever coming to fruition. there is simply too much money behind it for it to ever gain traction.
Private Mod Note
():
Rollback Post to RevisionRollBack
Modern: UWGSnow-Bant Control BURGrixis Death's Shadow GWBCoCo Elves WCDeath and Taxes (sold)
FTC is looking into lootboxes for possible regulation, as of some stories breaking into the news pipeline today. So WOTC may have arrived just a little too late to the abusive bandwagon. I hope that's the case, anyways.
like implications for physical booster packs? or just the digital front?
as far as i know the regulations concerning lootboxes are a matter of transparency. wizards has been pretty upfront with the probabilities of getting whatever outcomes; be it arena boosters, ICRs, or MTGO treasure boxes. if its just this the worst outcome is that wotc, or any other game with lootbox-esque features has to uphold some level of value per dollar spent; and even that is extremely unlikely seeing as how it would be a cluster#!%.
outside of that, the biggest hit would be if some connection were made between lootboxes and gambling, meaning the games themselves would be regulated according to gambling laws. considering how large of an industry this would effect, i dont see it ever coming to fruition. there is simply too much money behind it for it to ever gain traction.
It's not about the odds being shown. If there are odds and the contents have real world secondary value, than it is potentially at risk for being considered gambling. This isn't a problem for TCGs that didn't screw up their market as much as WoTC did, but Wizards of the Coast has literally only been able to defend itself by keeping itself separated from the secondary market. By the way, that defense is paper thin and actually would lose in court if loot boxes continue to physical media. Thankfully, it's mostly aimed at age restrictions on video games with gambling mechanics like loot boxes.
1. (Ravnica Allegiance): You can't keep a good esper control deck down... Or Wilderness Reclamation... or Gates...
2. (War of the Spark): Guys, I know what we need! We need a cycle of really idiotic flavor text victory cards! Jace's Triumph...
3. (War of the Spark): Lets make the format with control have even more control!
Yeah EA went too far, pissed off nearly everyone to the point that people cried to the elected officials of Belgium, and they passed a law against it.
Total joke that people call it 'gambling'.
I'm actually on the side of consumers in saying it is gambling and that lootboxes should be subject to age restrictions just like the rest of the psychologically manipulating garbage. It's absolutely no different from casino slot machines, albeit Casino slot machines often give more than what one gets out of a randomized digital goodies pack.
Private Mod Note
():
Rollback Post to RevisionRollBack
1. (Ravnica Allegiance): You can't keep a good esper control deck down... Or Wilderness Reclamation... or Gates...
2. (War of the Spark): Guys, I know what we need! We need a cycle of really idiotic flavor text victory cards! Jace's Triumph...
3. (War of the Spark): Lets make the format with control have even more control!
When it has no in game impact on balance (Overwatch) compared to pay wall (Star Wars, I believe it was) then thats one thing. I'll never call it gambling, just because some people have poor self control.
There is no deck that is dead against an Ancestral Vision.
There are decks that will be basically dead and can scoop up their cards against a turn 3 Batterskull
Path.
Abrade.
Push.
Vapor Snag.
Nature's Claim.
Any deck that is dead to a Turn 3 4/4 Artifact (singular!) Deserves to die.
I was about to reply to a deck that scoops to a turn 3 Batterskull, but then this post did it just fine.
Even Burn, a deck that can definitely get decimated by Batterskull has burn for the Mystic (Searing Blaze and more) or can even win without burning it by doing a pair of Skullcrack. Will it always have the answer? No, but then nobody always has the answer for blazing Dredge starts, turn 3-4 KCI wins, and just about anything else that wins in the format. Heck (sorry to beat a dead horse), many decks don't have much of an answer for a Cragganwick Cremator, discarding Impervious Greatwurm.
*I almost wanna say that more decks are dead to a turn 4 Ancestral Vision resolving, but most of my Ancestral Visions end up netting me 3 more lands.
Legacy - Sneak Show, BR Reanimator, Miracles, UW Stoneblade
Premodern - Trix, RecSur, Enchantress, Reanimator, Elves https://www.facebook.com/groups/PremodernUSA/ Modern - Neobrand, Hogaak Vine, Elves
Standard - Mono Red (6-2 and 5-3 in 2 McQ)
Draft - (I wish I had more time for limited...)
Commander - Norin the Wary, Grimgrin, Adun Oakenshield (taking forever to build) (dead format for me)
i think lootboxes should have some regulation. i know some game studios do some really shady stuff. i remember it being particularly rampant in the chinese market where people were just getting absolutely ripped off.
i could see age restrictions on lootbox type features. basically changing the criteria for the ESRB. another avenue could be locking certain features (such as an ingame store) behind parental controls.
personally, and i dont mean this to spark any sort of political debate, i tend to lean towards freedom of choice in almost anything. the caveat to that is information should be more readily available so people can make informed choices.
mental addictions to certain facets of video games has been supported by many studies; the same goes for internet addiction. even with all the advances in general science, neurology/the human brain still has plenty of room for exploration; meaning psychological responses are open to plenty of interpretation. so its just another instance of lowering the bar for what it is acceptable for the government to intervene in.
anywho, this brought to mind something i remember reading. i may have gotten it from someone posting it here, but i cant remember. its a piece written by richard garfield admonishing the kind of business tactics we are talking about. i cant say i agree with all of his claims, but its an interesting read. https://www.facebook.com/notes/richard-garfield/a-game-players-manifesto/1049168888532667
Private Mod Note
():
Rollback Post to RevisionRollBack
Modern: UWGSnow-Bant Control BURGrixis Death's Shadow GWBCoCo Elves WCDeath and Taxes (sold)
And tbh the game industry has brought this ***** on themselves. They pushed it too far, crapped out to many garbage games designed just to make you pay, and now they should suffer the consequences.
well they arent really suffering any consequences yet, and i doubt they will. it sounds like its just passing through the FTC so they can make sure shady companies arent doing anything fraudulent.
also id have to disagree with you in the sense that the business model itself is at fault. be it free-to-play with micro-transactions, or just a generic quick release patch based system (early access or DLCs for example); both are conveniences that rose up to meet the demand of both consumers and developers. people tend to gravitate towards the chance for something better, and lootboxes instead of static rewards enhances that novelty. the issues that arise are when the lootboxes or their contents are purchasable or traded, because like Colt47 pointed out above real monetary value is attached to them. without any information on the drop rates there is no way to tell how much the game creators are artificially modulating scarcity.
for example buying boosters on Arena. wizards could be committing fraud by leading players to believe the drop rate of rare wild cards (can turn them into any rare in the system) is higher than it actually is, or the dual lands which you need multiple playsets of in many decks. people believe they are just unlucky so they keep buying more.
so its not a failing of the system. lootboxes and or the f2p model arent the culprit, its just run of the mill human greed at work.
note that it was just an example, i dont believe wizards is doing this. sure wizards/hasbro is worried about the bottom line and may milk players for what they can; but that is quite different than knowingly committing fraudulent business practices. they dont need money THAT bad.
For the record, the loot box comment was aimed at Arena, which WOTC clearly is making a new pillar of their business model. Every real booster pack is definitely a lottery ticket, but so long as WOTC's legal stance is that a swamp is the same value as a lion's eye diamond it's trickier to get them to remove their heads from their collective rears.
I was about to reply to a deck that scoops to a turn 3 Batterskull, but then this post did it just fine.
Even Burn, a deck that can definitely get decimated by Batterskull has burn for the Mystic (Searing Blaze and more) or can even win without burning it by doing a pair of Skullcrack.
Or Smash to Smithereens, or Destructive Revelry, or Wear//Tear, or Deflecting Palm, or kill your own chump blocker, or...
I can't wait for SFM to be unbanned and do absolutely nothing. I'll be sure to sell my copies quickly.
I just want to play it in a quest for the sacred relic deck. It's been banned so long a lot of weird things can happen.
You can still play Quest for the Holy Relic in Modern without Stoneforge Mystic. Mystic doesn't really help the deck in any way, unless you're thinking strictly about a backup plan. Argentum Armor is mostly fetched up through the enchantment itself. It doesn't change the fact that it is a terrible deck in Modern. I have played against it and I even lost to it once in Modern, but there are much better options.
And I am not biased against it. GW Quest was one of my favorite Standard decks during the time. Go Vengevines! Favorite play = Cast Vengevine, opponent Mana Leaks, I cast Ornithopter and get that Vengevine and if there are any others in my graveyard back, then swing.
*Trust me, if it were viable in Modern, I'd be all over it. I've been "all over" most decks, lol.
Private Mod Note
():
Rollback Post to RevisionRollBack
Legacy - Sneak Show, BR Reanimator, Miracles, UW Stoneblade
Premodern - Trix, RecSur, Enchantress, Reanimator, Elves https://www.facebook.com/groups/PremodernUSA/ Modern - Neobrand, Hogaak Vine, Elves
Standard - Mono Red (6-2 and 5-3 in 2 McQ)
Draft - (I wish I had more time for limited...)
Commander - Norin the Wary, Grimgrin, Adun Oakenshield (taking forever to build) (dead format for me)
Speaking of Teferi.. is there a chance of his price to go down someday? Or he's on his way to becoming an 80$ card like JTMS?
He's killing it in Standard, and is single-handedly helping UW hang on for dear life in Modern. While his price may drop after rotation, he will likely stay expensive for a while (like Liliana, the Last Hope).
I'm one of those conspiracy theorists that believe they are holding off unbanning her because of equity. Using JTMS as an example, they can easily squeeze some decent dollars out of her if they unban her and move quickly with a reprint. However, this would be small potatoes compared to getting Arena rolling at full power. Every game maker knows the power of gambling with loot boxes and how much money they can get from people. Once they have people playing for free, it wouldn't be long before a lot of suckers start jamming for the currency.
1. (Ravnica Allegiance): You can't keep a good esper control deck down... Or Wilderness Reclamation... or Gates...
2. (War of the Spark): Guys, I know what we need! We need a cycle of really idiotic flavor text victory cards! Jace's Triumph...
3. (War of the Spark): Lets make the format with control have even more control!
i dont think its a conspiracy theory, just a rational business decision. unbanning a high profile card that is already expensive and has a pretty low deckbuilding cost WITHOUT a reprint would be stupid. i dont know why people are so willing to complain about card availability, but when wotc cares suddenly it becomes a greedy cashgrab. im not an economist, but even i can see that it isnt always zero sum.
UWGSnow-Bant Control
BURGrixis Death's Shadow
GWBCoCo Elves
WCDeath and Taxes(sold)i think SFM will keep appreciating, but the rate will peter off towards 30-35. that said im not convinced buying up staples will give the return some might be expecting. sure the masters line is coming to an indefinite end, but that hardly equates to no (or at least less) reprints on the horizon. i think wizards just realized, like many of us here and elsewhere, that the masters line just wasnt achieving any of its particular goals well. this explains their announcement earlier this year where they wanted to focus on themes and subsequently drafting; then their complete 180 with UMA and 'yeah nevermind its just ending'. to me there was an implicit addendum of 'year nevermind its just ending, because we have something else in mind'.
UWGSnow-Bant Control
BURGrixis Death's Shadow
GWBCoCo Elves
WCDeath and Taxes(sold)Spirits
There are decks that will be basically dead and can scoop up their cards against a turn 3 Batterskull
Path.
Abrade.
Push.
Vapor Snag.
Nature's Claim.
Any deck that is dead to a Turn 3 4/4 Artifact (singular!) Deserves to die.
Spirits
This. And so much this. It cannot be restated enough.
If your jank pile can't deal with a Batterskull on 3 while your opponent effectively does nothing else (since it takes 4 mana over 2 turns to accomplish this), then I've got some bad news for you about every other deck in Modern.
UR ....... WUBR ........... WB ............. RGW ........ UBR ....... WUB .... BGU
Spells / Blink & Combo / Token Grind / Dino Tribal / Draw Cards / Zombies / Reanimate
like implications for physical booster packs? or just the digital front?
as far as i know the regulations concerning lootboxes are a matter of transparency. wizards has been pretty upfront with the probabilities of getting whatever outcomes; be it arena boosters, ICRs, or MTGO treasure boxes. if its just this the worst outcome is that wotc, or any other game with lootbox-esque features has to uphold some level of value per dollar spent; and even that is extremely unlikely seeing as how it would be a cluster#!%.
outside of that, the biggest hit would be if some connection were made between lootboxes and gambling, meaning the games themselves would be regulated according to gambling laws. considering how large of an industry this would effect, i dont see it ever coming to fruition. there is simply too much money behind it for it to ever gain traction.
UWGSnow-Bant Control
BURGrixis Death's Shadow
GWBCoCo Elves
WCDeath and Taxes(sold)Spirits
It's not about the odds being shown. If there are odds and the contents have real world secondary value, than it is potentially at risk for being considered gambling. This isn't a problem for TCGs that didn't screw up their market as much as WoTC did, but Wizards of the Coast has literally only been able to defend itself by keeping itself separated from the secondary market. By the way, that defense is paper thin and actually would lose in court if loot boxes continue to physical media. Thankfully, it's mostly aimed at age restrictions on video games with gambling mechanics like loot boxes.
1. (Ravnica Allegiance): You can't keep a good esper control deck down... Or Wilderness Reclamation... or Gates...
2. (War of the Spark): Guys, I know what we need! We need a cycle of really idiotic flavor text victory cards! Jace's Triumph...
3. (War of the Spark): Lets make the format with control have even more control!
Total joke that people call it 'gambling'.
Spirits
I'm actually on the side of consumers in saying it is gambling and that lootboxes should be subject to age restrictions just like the rest of the psychologically manipulating garbage. It's absolutely no different from casino slot machines, albeit Casino slot machines often give more than what one gets out of a randomized digital goodies pack.
1. (Ravnica Allegiance): You can't keep a good esper control deck down... Or Wilderness Reclamation... or Gates...
2. (War of the Spark): Guys, I know what we need! We need a cycle of really idiotic flavor text victory cards! Jace's Triumph...
3. (War of the Spark): Lets make the format with control have even more control!
Spirits
I was about to reply to a deck that scoops to a turn 3 Batterskull, but then this post did it just fine.
Even Burn, a deck that can definitely get decimated by Batterskull has burn for the Mystic (Searing Blaze and more) or can even win without burning it by doing a pair of Skullcrack. Will it always have the answer? No, but then nobody always has the answer for blazing Dredge starts, turn 3-4 KCI wins, and just about anything else that wins in the format. Heck (sorry to beat a dead horse), many decks don't have much of an answer for a Cragganwick Cremator, discarding Impervious Greatwurm.
*I almost wanna say that more decks are dead to a turn 4 Ancestral Vision resolving, but most of my Ancestral Visions end up netting me 3 more lands.
Premodern - Trix, RecSur, Enchantress, Reanimator, Elves https://www.facebook.com/groups/PremodernUSA/
Modern - Neobrand, Hogaak Vine, Elves
Standard - Mono Red (6-2 and 5-3 in 2 McQ)
Draft - (I wish I had more time for limited...)
Commander -
Norin the Wary, Grimgrin, Adun Oakenshield (taking forever to build)(dead format for me)i could see age restrictions on lootbox type features. basically changing the criteria for the ESRB. another avenue could be locking certain features (such as an ingame store) behind parental controls.
personally, and i dont mean this to spark any sort of political debate, i tend to lean towards freedom of choice in almost anything. the caveat to that is information should be more readily available so people can make informed choices.
mental addictions to certain facets of video games has been supported by many studies; the same goes for internet addiction. even with all the advances in general science, neurology/the human brain still has plenty of room for exploration; meaning psychological responses are open to plenty of interpretation. so its just another instance of lowering the bar for what it is acceptable for the government to intervene in.
anywho, this brought to mind something i remember reading. i may have gotten it from someone posting it here, but i cant remember. its a piece written by richard garfield admonishing the kind of business tactics we are talking about. i cant say i agree with all of his claims, but its an interesting read.
https://www.facebook.com/notes/richard-garfield/a-game-players-manifesto/1049168888532667
UWGSnow-Bant Control
BURGrixis Death's Shadow
GWBCoCo Elves
WCDeath and Taxes(sold)well they arent really suffering any consequences yet, and i doubt they will. it sounds like its just passing through the FTC so they can make sure shady companies arent doing anything fraudulent.
also id have to disagree with you in the sense that the business model itself is at fault. be it free-to-play with micro-transactions, or just a generic quick release patch based system (early access or DLCs for example); both are conveniences that rose up to meet the demand of both consumers and developers. people tend to gravitate towards the chance for something better, and lootboxes instead of static rewards enhances that novelty. the issues that arise are when the lootboxes or their contents are purchasable or traded, because like Colt47 pointed out above real monetary value is attached to them. without any information on the drop rates there is no way to tell how much the game creators are artificially modulating scarcity.
for example buying boosters on Arena. wizards could be committing fraud by leading players to believe the drop rate of rare wild cards (can turn them into any rare in the system) is higher than it actually is, or the dual lands which you need multiple playsets of in many decks. people believe they are just unlucky so they keep buying more.
so its not a failing of the system. lootboxes and or the f2p model arent the culprit, its just run of the mill human greed at work.
note that it was just an example, i dont believe wizards is doing this. sure wizards/hasbro is worried about the bottom line and may milk players for what they can; but that is quite different than knowingly committing fraudulent business practices. they dont need money THAT bad.
UWGSnow-Bant Control
BURGrixis Death's Shadow
GWBCoCo Elves
WCDeath and Taxes(sold)I just want to play it in a quest for the sacred relic deck. It's been banned so long a lot of weird things can happen.
Or Smash to Smithereens, or Destructive Revelry, or Wear//Tear, or Deflecting Palm, or kill your own chump blocker, or...
You can still play Quest for the Holy Relic in Modern without Stoneforge Mystic. Mystic doesn't really help the deck in any way, unless you're thinking strictly about a backup plan. Argentum Armor is mostly fetched up through the enchantment itself. It doesn't change the fact that it is a terrible deck in Modern. I have played against it and I even lost to it once in Modern, but there are much better options.
And I am not biased against it. GW Quest was one of my favorite Standard decks during the time. Go Vengevines! Favorite play = Cast Vengevine, opponent Mana Leaks, I cast Ornithopter and get that Vengevine and if there are any others in my graveyard back, then swing.
*Trust me, if it were viable in Modern, I'd be all over it. I've been "all over" most decks, lol.
Premodern - Trix, RecSur, Enchantress, Reanimator, Elves https://www.facebook.com/groups/PremodernUSA/
Modern - Neobrand, Hogaak Vine, Elves
Standard - Mono Red (6-2 and 5-3 in 2 McQ)
Draft - (I wish I had more time for limited...)
Commander -
Norin the Wary, Grimgrin, Adun Oakenshield (taking forever to build)(dead format for me)It would replace all the utility and Teferi in UWx Control decks in Modern. Which imho is a good thing.
?
You would have to mock up a list. I don't see how SFM replaces Teferi, without a pretty big shake up.
Spirits
Nexus MTG News // Nexus - Magic Art Gallery // MTG Dual Land Color Ratios Analyzer // MTG Card Drawing Odds Calculator
Want to play a UW control deck in modern, but don't have jace or snaps?
Please come visit us at the Emeria Titan control thread
He's killing it in Standard, and is single-handedly helping UW hang on for dear life in Modern. While his price may drop after rotation, he will likely stay expensive for a while (like Liliana, the Last Hope).
UR ....... WUBR ........... WB ............. RGW ........ UBR ....... WUB .... BGU
Spells / Blink & Combo / Token Grind / Dino Tribal / Draw Cards / Zombies / Reanimate