2-3 after release is not true. I heared this so many times and it was wrong for all cards i needed in the Past for all sets.
It really depends on the set, rarity, and card in particular. Barring variables like new artwork, 2-3 weeks post-release is fairly accurate for anything reprinted at rare in a Masters/"premium" set. Obvious exceptions being high-demand rares, such as enemy fetches, where something like Scalding Tarn bottomed out two days-post release and immediately started climbing back up. Depending on demand, the point at which mythic reprints from these sets bottom out can vary from days - months. Looking at the price of Snapcaster from the day it was spoiled to a month post-release, its price one month post-release exceeded its average price a week prior to it being announced it'd be in MM17. However, other mythic reprints, such as Goyf, will almost certainly see their value trend down for weeks - months before finally bottoming out. Lastly, you need to take into consideration the number of copies currently in circulation for a given card. For example, with its only non-promo printing being from Lorwyn, Teeg's value is unlikely to rebound back to its current price within the next few weeks - months.
It's gotten to the point where the majority of regular Modern/Legacy/etc players are involved in the financial aspect of the game to some varying degree, whether it be in the form of speculation or simply attempting to preserve the value of their collections. Therefore, the old "2-3 week" benchmark is no longer a reliable assumption when evaluating an incoming set as a whole; one must evaluate the reprint of interest based on total copies in the market, playability, rarity, and level of demand.
This! Only 2-3 after release is best time... gived me to often a bloody nose. Most it was climbing after some days or falling 2 months longer. It is not easy to know, but everywhere peoole talk about 2-3 weeks
Thank you both for the replies. Interesting topic and I'll start paying a lot closer attention. I think 2-3 weeks may still be correct for something like Back to Basics (fringe play in low-played formats or 1-of in EDH) but maybe not for Noble Hierarch (multi-format appeal as a 4-of). I'll look at my pickup list accordingly.
The only one's I considered, were Noble, and Breach. I dont even need anything else. :/
For singles..
The only thing I need from UMA is a single Bitterblossom. Or maybe that is a "want" instead of a "need", because I already have a Bitterblossom, and the only reason for wanting one from UMA is the new art. Gonna wait for the price to drop. And will not buy if the price does not drop too low.
Personally, I think there will be people looking for the lowest price to get in on Celestial Colonnade and Noble Hierarch. Snapcaster Mage is falling out of favor much like Fulminator Mage did, so it will probably steadily drop, only keeping a price tag due to price memory and it being blue.
Private Mod Note
():
Rollback Post to RevisionRollBack
1. (Ravnica Allegiance): You can't keep a good esper control deck down... Or Wilderness Reclamation... or Gates...
2. (War of the Spark): Guys, I know what we need! We need a cycle of really idiotic flavor text victory cards! Jace's Triumph...
3. (War of the Spark): Lets make the format with control have even more control!
oof. I had 2 goryo's vengeance and a through the breach I've just been holding onto since I got them at prereleases and were junk rares. I finished the sets a couple months ago, guess I should have waited.
so how high do you guys think horizon canopy will get? its gonna be a bottleneck for those buying into hierarch decks.
I'm pretty sure the price is already getting pretty spicy for a lot of people. The question is how much more unopened iconic masters is there. I think the well is finally drying up on it and I don't see it at my meijer and walmart stores locally, but it still is plentiful online from dedicated card shops in sealed boxes. I want to say it is an easy card to reprint in a secondary product line, but because it isn't part of a land cycle it is rather hard to print.
Private Mod Note
():
Rollback Post to RevisionRollBack
1. (Ravnica Allegiance): You can't keep a good esper control deck down... Or Wilderness Reclamation... or Gates...
2. (War of the Spark): Guys, I know what we need! We need a cycle of really idiotic flavor text victory cards! Jace's Triumph...
3. (War of the Spark): Lets make the format with control have even more control!
so how high do you guys think horizon canopy will get? its gonna be a bottleneck for those buying into hierarch decks.
I'm pretty sure the price is already getting pretty spicy for a lot of people. The question is how much more unopened iconic masters is there. I think the well is finally drying up on it and I don't see it at my meijer and walmart stores locally, but it still is plentiful online from dedicated card shops in sealed boxes. I want to say it is an easy card to reprint in a secondary product line, but because it isn't part of a land cycle it is rather hard to print.
... but it is part of a land cycle. They just haven’t printed its cousins yet.
That was supposed to be the concept of the five rare lands in Future Sight, wasn't it? Nimbus Maze, River of Tears, Graven Cairns, Grove of the Burnwillows, and Horizon Canopy were supposed to be instances of lands from future sets’ land cycles? And while to date we’ve only seen Graven Cairns with its cycle, the other four are at least theoretically yet to come, right?
so how high do you guys think horizon canopy will get? its gonna be a bottleneck for those buying into hierarch decks.
I can see FS copies breaking $100 if it doesn't get another reprint within the next year or so and IMA copies trailing not too far behind. I'm actually somewhat surprised its price hasn't begun to tick up now that UMA has been revealed in its entirety; especially considering its usually a 4-of in the majority of decks where it's played. In addition to being a bottleneck for Hierarch decks, it'll also be a bottleneck (once again) for Bogles seeing how UMA reprinted half of the cards in the deck lol.
Re Snapcaster: I wouldn't expect to see a significant price decrease. Snappy's stock was literally in free-fall for a full year before it was revealed to be in MM17; staples reprinted at mythic in premium sets are often wild cards.
so how high do you guys think horizon canopy will get? its gonna be a bottleneck for those buying into hierarch decks.
I'm pretty sure the price is already getting pretty spicy for a lot of people. The question is how much more unopened iconic masters is there. I think the well is finally drying up on it and I don't see it at my meijer and walmart stores locally, but it still is plentiful online from dedicated card shops in sealed boxes. I want to say it is an easy card to reprint in a secondary product line, but because it isn't part of a land cycle it is rather hard to print.
... but it is part of a land cycle. They just haven’t printed its cousins yet.
That was supposed to be the concept of the five rare lands in Future Sight, wasn't it? Nimbus Maze, River of Tears, Graven Cairns, Grove of the Burnwillows, and Horizon Canopy were supposed to be instances of lands from future sets’ land cycles? And while to date we’ve only seen Graven Cairns with its cycle, the other four are at least theoretically yet to come, right?
Nope, they were supposed to be glimpses into potential futures. We ended up getting the filter lands, but there's no promise the other four "cycles" will be completed. Honestly, the River of Tears cycle would be wonky as hell, and having a bunch of Horizon Canopies is probably not the best idea for a standard set (lands that cantrip, even with the downside of paying life for mana).
Nope, they were supposed to be glimpses into potential futures. We ended up getting the filter lands, but there's no promise the other four "cycles" will be completed. Honestly, the River of Tears cycle would be wonky as hell, and having a bunch of Horizon Canopies is probably not the best idea for a standard set (lands that cantrip, even with the downside of paying life for mana).
I disagree. I think they're all great land cycles. The Nimbus Maze cycle is probably the most likely to show up while shocklands are around, but the game would be a lot better with all of those lands having complete cycles.
yeah it would be kinda cool to see the horizon canopy effect on a full cycle of dual lands. i dont think theyd ruin standard, theyd just be a feature of the format for their lifespan. we know wizards isnt averse to tying some consistency tools to lands, and theyd be a guaranteed hit for modern and beyond to sell packs.
Private Mod Note
():
Rollback Post to RevisionRollBack
Modern: UWGSnow-Bant Control BURGrixis Death's Shadow GWBCoCo Elves WCDeath and Taxes (sold)
Huh, I thought Back to Basics was on the Reserved List.
Me too. Along with Phyrixian Tower. But I guess not. RL is a joke.
I was confused about this too. However, upon checking it's Serra's Sanctum that is in the reserved list and not Tower. Strange because both sanctum and tower are part of the same cycle of lands, but one is in the rl and the other is not.
_______________
Looks like Noble Hierarch's price is finally coming down.
Huh, I thought Back to Basics was on the Reserved List.
Me too. Along with Phyrixian Tower. But I guess not. RL is a joke.
I was confused about this too. However, upon checking it's Serra's Sanctum that is in the reserved list and not Tower. Strange because both sanctum and tower are part of the same cycle of lands, but one is in the rl and the other is not.
_______________
Looks like Noble Hierarch's price is finally coming down.
When one goes down, the partner in crime goes up. Horizon Canopy.
Private Mod Note
():
Rollback Post to RevisionRollBack
1. (Ravnica Allegiance): You can't keep a good esper control deck down... Or Wilderness Reclamation... or Gates...
2. (War of the Spark): Guys, I know what we need! We need a cycle of really idiotic flavor text victory cards! Jace's Triumph...
3. (War of the Spark): Lets make the format with control have even more control!
that reminds me that I'm an idiot for selling my last FS Horizon Canopy for only 30$ months ago. Thought the market was going to be flooded with them when it got reprinted. :/
Huh, I thought Back to Basics was on the Reserved List.
Me too. Along with Phyrixian Tower. But I guess not. RL is a joke.
I was confused about this too. However, upon checking it's Serra's Sanctum that is in the reserved list and not Tower. Strange because both sanctum and tower are part of the same cycle of lands, but one is in the rl and the other is not.
_______________
Looks like Noble Hierarch's price is finally coming down.
Yup. Just two cards from Saga that never had a reprint and saw their value increase as though they were RL. I thought the same thing when I heard Karakas was being printed in EMA.
yeah it would be kinda cool to see the horizon canopy effect on a full cycle of dual lands. i dont think theyd ruin standard, theyd just be a feature of the format for their lifespan. we know wizards isnt averse to tying some consistency tools to lands, and theyd be a guaranteed hit for modern and beyond to sell packs.
Oh boy, would a full cycle of those lands be overpowered. If it was cycling than I could see it, but to draw in situations of land flood is powerful when done reactively, rather than proactively.
Private Mod Note
():
Rollback Post to RevisionRollBack
1. (Ravnica Allegiance): You can't keep a good esper control deck down... Or Wilderness Reclamation... or Gates...
2. (War of the Spark): Guys, I know what we need! We need a cycle of really idiotic flavor text victory cards! Jace's Triumph...
3. (War of the Spark): Lets make the format with control have even more control!
Unplayable = last pick in draft
Somewhat Playable = works in draft
Playable = works in standard
Powerful = first pick in standard
Overpowered = works in modern
God mode = ban list
Which brings up the point that nothing about SFM feels like God mode, but since everyone knows she is getting unbanned at some point I let the anomaly slide.
Also, commander is a bouncing juju bee that finds power in strange places.
Private Mod Note
():
Rollback Post to RevisionRollBack
1. (Ravnica Allegiance): You can't keep a good esper control deck down... Or Wilderness Reclamation... or Gates...
2. (War of the Spark): Guys, I know what we need! We need a cycle of really idiotic flavor text victory cards! Jace's Triumph...
3. (War of the Spark): Lets make the format with control have even more control!
Which brings up the point that nothing about SFM feels like God mode, but since everyone knows she is getting unbanned at some point I let the anomaly slide.
This would still be true if it was said like four years ago. Everyone knows the sun will burn out at some point, but that doesn't really affect anything in the present. But yeah, I'm still bullish on picking up copies whenever she's under $20. However, I haven't picked up any lately as we're still waiting for her value to plateau following the July B&R announcement when everyone was sure she'd finally be liberated. Suckers. With that being said and another B&R come/gone plus "the end of Masters sets", where do ya'll see her price settling? Like clockwork, she typically falls back below $20 after a B&R announcement, but I'm not sure if that will be the case this time around due to prices increasing across the board for staples/specs not reprinted in UMA.
But, if they reprint sfm in standard, it could go down 10
If is the key word there. It could also jump up to $100 if WotC decides to randomly add it to the RL. Neither hypothetical is helpful for analyzing how/if SFM stock is affected by current events.
It really depends on the set, rarity, and card in particular. Barring variables like new artwork, 2-3 weeks post-release is fairly accurate for anything reprinted at rare in a Masters/"premium" set. Obvious exceptions being high-demand rares, such as enemy fetches, where something like Scalding Tarn bottomed out two days-post release and immediately started climbing back up. Depending on demand, the point at which mythic reprints from these sets bottom out can vary from days - months. Looking at the price of Snapcaster from the day it was spoiled to a month post-release, its price one month post-release exceeded its average price a week prior to it being announced it'd be in MM17. However, other mythic reprints, such as Goyf, will almost certainly see their value trend down for weeks - months before finally bottoming out. Lastly, you need to take into consideration the number of copies currently in circulation for a given card. For example, with its only non-promo printing being from Lorwyn, Teeg's value is unlikely to rebound back to its current price within the next few weeks - months.
It's gotten to the point where the majority of regular Modern/Legacy/etc players are involved in the financial aspect of the game to some varying degree, whether it be in the form of speculation or simply attempting to preserve the value of their collections. Therefore, the old "2-3 week" benchmark is no longer a reliable assumption when evaluating an incoming set as a whole; one must evaluate the reprint of interest based on total copies in the market, playability, rarity, and level of demand.
Link to Discord server where anybody from MTGS can keep up with thread topics while everything is being sorted out with the new site.
Standard: lol no
Modern: BG/x, UR/x, Burn, Merfolk, Zoo, Storm
Legacy: Shardless BUG, Delver (BUG, RUG, Grixis), Landstill, Depths Combo, Merfolk
Vintage: Dark Times, BUG Fish, Merfolk
EDH: Teysa, Orzhov Scion / Krenko, Mob Boss / Stonebrow, Krosan Hero
For singles..
The only thing I need from UMA is a single Bitterblossom. Or maybe that is a "want" instead of a "need", because I already have a Bitterblossom, and the only reason for wanting one from UMA is the new art. Gonna wait for the price to drop. And will not buy if the price does not drop too low.
Nexus MTG News // Nexus - Magic Art Gallery // MTG Dual Land Color Ratios Analyzer // MTG Card Drawing Odds Calculator
Want to play a UW control deck in modern, but don't have jace or snaps?
Please come visit us at the Emeria Titan control thread
1. (Ravnica Allegiance): You can't keep a good esper control deck down... Or Wilderness Reclamation... or Gates...
2. (War of the Spark): Guys, I know what we need! We need a cycle of really idiotic flavor text victory cards! Jace's Triumph...
3. (War of the Spark): Lets make the format with control have even more control!
UWGSnow-Bant Control
BURGrixis Death's Shadow
GWBCoCo Elves
WCDeath and Taxes(sold)I'm pretty sure the price is already getting pretty spicy for a lot of people. The question is how much more unopened iconic masters is there. I think the well is finally drying up on it and I don't see it at my meijer and walmart stores locally, but it still is plentiful online from dedicated card shops in sealed boxes. I want to say it is an easy card to reprint in a secondary product line, but because it isn't part of a land cycle it is rather hard to print.
1. (Ravnica Allegiance): You can't keep a good esper control deck down... Or Wilderness Reclamation... or Gates...
2. (War of the Spark): Guys, I know what we need! We need a cycle of really idiotic flavor text victory cards! Jace's Triumph...
3. (War of the Spark): Lets make the format with control have even more control!
... but it is part of a land cycle. They just haven’t printed its cousins yet.
That was supposed to be the concept of the five rare lands in Future Sight, wasn't it? Nimbus Maze, River of Tears, Graven Cairns, Grove of the Burnwillows, and Horizon Canopy were supposed to be instances of lands from future sets’ land cycles? And while to date we’ve only seen Graven Cairns with its cycle, the other four are at least theoretically yet to come, right?
I can see FS copies breaking $100 if it doesn't get another reprint within the next year or so and IMA copies trailing not too far behind. I'm actually somewhat surprised its price hasn't begun to tick up now that UMA has been revealed in its entirety; especially considering its usually a 4-of in the majority of decks where it's played. In addition to being a bottleneck for Hierarch decks, it'll also be a bottleneck (once again) for Bogles seeing how UMA reprinted half of the cards in the deck lol.
Re Snapcaster: I wouldn't expect to see a significant price decrease. Snappy's stock was literally in free-fall for a full year before it was revealed to be in MM17; staples reprinted at mythic in premium sets are often wild cards.
Link to Discord server where anybody from MTGS can keep up with thread topics while everything is being sorted out with the new site.
Nope, they were supposed to be glimpses into potential futures. We ended up getting the filter lands, but there's no promise the other four "cycles" will be completed. Honestly, the River of Tears cycle would be wonky as hell, and having a bunch of Horizon Canopies is probably not the best idea for a standard set (lands that cantrip, even with the downside of paying life for mana).
I disagree. I think they're all great land cycles. The Nimbus Maze cycle is probably the most likely to show up while shocklands are around, but the game would be a lot better with all of those lands having complete cycles.
UWGSnow-Bant Control
BURGrixis Death's Shadow
GWBCoCo Elves
WCDeath and Taxes(sold)I was confused about this too. However, upon checking it's Serra's Sanctum that is in the reserved list and not Tower. Strange because both sanctum and tower are part of the same cycle of lands, but one is in the rl and the other is not.
_______________
Looks like Noble Hierarch's price is finally coming down.
Nexus MTG News // Nexus - Magic Art Gallery // MTG Dual Land Color Ratios Analyzer // MTG Card Drawing Odds Calculator
Want to play a UW control deck in modern, but don't have jace or snaps?
Please come visit us at the Emeria Titan control thread
When one goes down, the partner in crime goes up. Horizon Canopy.
1. (Ravnica Allegiance): You can't keep a good esper control deck down... Or Wilderness Reclamation... or Gates...
2. (War of the Spark): Guys, I know what we need! We need a cycle of really idiotic flavor text victory cards! Jace's Triumph...
3. (War of the Spark): Lets make the format with control have even more control!
Nexus MTG News // Nexus - Magic Art Gallery // MTG Dual Land Color Ratios Analyzer // MTG Card Drawing Odds Calculator
Want to play a UW control deck in modern, but don't have jace or snaps?
Please come visit us at the Emeria Titan control thread
Yup. Just two cards from Saga that never had a reprint and saw their value increase as though they were RL. I thought the same thing when I heard Karakas was being printed in EMA.
Link to Discord server where anybody from MTGS can keep up with thread topics while everything is being sorted out with the new site.
Oh boy, would a full cycle of those lands be overpowered. If it was cycling than I could see it, but to draw in situations of land flood is powerful when done reactively, rather than proactively.
1. (Ravnica Allegiance): You can't keep a good esper control deck down... Or Wilderness Reclamation... or Gates...
2. (War of the Spark): Guys, I know what we need! We need a cycle of really idiotic flavor text victory cards! Jace's Triumph...
3. (War of the Spark): Lets make the format with control have even more control!
Spirits
My scale:
Unplayable = last pick in draft
Somewhat Playable = works in draft
Playable = works in standard
Powerful = first pick in standard
Overpowered = works in modern
God mode = ban list
Which brings up the point that nothing about SFM feels like God mode, but since everyone knows she is getting unbanned at some point I let the anomaly slide.
Also, commander is a bouncing juju bee that finds power in strange places.
1. (Ravnica Allegiance): You can't keep a good esper control deck down... Or Wilderness Reclamation... or Gates...
2. (War of the Spark): Guys, I know what we need! We need a cycle of really idiotic flavor text victory cards! Jace's Triumph...
3. (War of the Spark): Lets make the format with control have even more control!
UR ....... WUBR ........... WB ............. RGW ........ UBR ....... WUB .... BGU
Spells / Blink & Combo / Token Grind / Dino Tribal / Draw Cards / Zombies / Reanimate
This would still be true if it was said like four years ago. Everyone knows the sun will burn out at some point, but that doesn't really affect anything in the present. But yeah, I'm still bullish on picking up copies whenever she's under $20. However, I haven't picked up any lately as we're still waiting for her value to plateau following the July B&R announcement when everyone was sure she'd finally be liberated. Suckers. With that being said and another B&R come/gone plus "the end of Masters sets", where do ya'll see her price settling? Like clockwork, she typically falls back below $20 after a B&R announcement, but I'm not sure if that will be the case this time around due to prices increasing across the board for staples/specs not reprinted in UMA.
Link to Discord server where anybody from MTGS can keep up with thread topics while everything is being sorted out with the new site.
If is the key word there. It could also jump up to $100 if WotC decides to randomly add it to the RL. Neither hypothetical is helpful for analyzing how/if SFM stock is affected by current events.
Link to Discord server where anybody from MTGS can keep up with thread topics while everything is being sorted out with the new site.