MTG Salvation

The comparison was that members were calling other members that predicted Push would not fall below 5 bucks, dumb/uninformed/etc. Bauble falls into the same category here, I am saying it won't fall below 5 bucks. I believe I will be proven correct and I feel that if people wait around for a sub 5 dollar Bauble they will be waiting for a VERY long time.

I'd guess that original Bauble print plus Iconic print STILL doesn't equal the original print run of Fatal Push. I could be wrong. We need to agree to disagree and move on.

I think Bauble always plays on people's hopes that the mechanic that'll break it is just around the corner, and when that happens people want to already be holding them rather than chasing them after a spike. In recent years Wizards has introduced Delirium, Revolt, and Improvise - all three of which scream "This will make a self-sacrificing cantrip 0-drop artifact more useful than it would otherwise be!" - though none have really come together in modern yet. Maybe the next revisit of any of these will make a real viable deck built around that mechanic possible.

If a card is scarce but is perceived to have a lot of potential for inclusion in a future breakthrough, people are more apt to hold it even if it's not being used, to make sure they be on the right side when it starts being used. This is why Vengevine and Idyllic Tutor are where they are right now (above $20) despite appearing in 0.3% and <0.1% of the decks in the current Modern meta.

(This is a real pain in the neck for people like me, who just want to use these cards in what-I-know-won't-even-be-competitive brews, but their price is being propped up despite not actually being used by speculators - and I know if I finally break resolve and buy in, that just guarantees they appear in the next reprint set and their value tanks making me wish I waited).

Quote from WarMachinePrime »

Correct the card doesn't have the breadth of play, but it will be price memory that keeps it above where it should be. Plus a zero cost artifact that can be played in any color deck will always make it attractive if another card comes along in the future that meshes well with it. I'd love to see it fall below 5 bucks, I just don't see the evidence pointing to that.

Prepare to be amazed, then. The card is comparable to many of the legacy uncommon cards. The factor that will determine the final price is the msrp of the box and how many people will be opening them. If I opened a bauble I'd sell it hellishly fast and buy it back after the price drops even more.

If a card is scarce but is perceived to have a lot of potential for inclusion in a future breakthrough, people are more apt to hold it even if it's not being used, to make sure they be on the right side when it starts being used. This is why Vengevine and Idyllic Tutor are where they are right now (above $20) despite appearing in 0.3% and <0.1% of the decks in the current Modern meta.

An excellent point and one I have thought quite often, thanks for sharing it. A zero casting cost cantripping artifact that could be played in ANY deck has an intrinsic value to it. Believe me, I'd love to see it drop below 5 bucks. I just don't think that will happen.

Prepare to be amazed, then. The card is comparable to many of the legacy uncommon cards. The factor that will determine the final price is the msrp of the box and how many people will be opening them. If I opened a bauble I'd sell it hellishly fast and buy it back after the price drops even more.

Ask yourself this question. Which format has a greater player base and which format is GROWING. Legacy or Modern? Legacy uncommons are not nearly in any greater demand than Modern "staples" and in a format that appears to be shrinking. Re-read thatmarkguy's comment above on holding onto perceived value for the future and you'll see what I'm talking about. We will know the answer in a couple of months probably. Until then, as I've stated, we have to agree to disagree and move on.

I'm going to buy it in the next few weeks regardless, but I think there's a high chance it falls below the 5 mark. It's already 7 dollars before even being released to the mass public.

Quote from Spsiegel1987 »

I'm going to buy it in the next few weeks regardless, but I think there's a high chance it falls below the 5 mark. It's already 7 dollars before even being released to the mass public.

Fair enough.

I'm about to buy a playset myself and if I can get it for anything under 7 bucks apiece I'll probably pull the trigger on the deal. 2 days until release.

I'm also on the lookout for my last Oblivion Stone. I have a feeling its about to bottom out as well.

Tron is really gaining a lot of traction on mtgo, don't wait too long for it

Quote from WarMachinePrime »

If a card is scarce but is perceived to have a lot of potential for inclusion in a future breakthrough, people are more apt to hold it even if it's not being used, to make sure they be on the right side when it starts being used. This is why Vengevine and Idyllic Tutor are where they are right now (above $20) despite appearing in 0.3% and <0.1% of the decks in the current Modern meta.

An excellent point and one I have thought quite often, thanks for sharing it. A zero casting cost cantripping artifact that could be played in ANY deck has an intrinsic value to it. Believe me, I'd love to see it drop below 5 bucks. I just don't think that will happen.

Prepare to be amazed, then. The card is comparable to many of the legacy uncommon cards. The factor that will determine the final price is the msrp of the box and how many people will be opening them. If I opened a bauble I'd sell it hellishly fast and buy it back after the price drops even more.

Ask yourself this question. Which format has a greater player base and which format is GROWING. Legacy or Modern? Legacy uncommons are not nearly in any greater demand than Modern "staples" and in a format that appears to be shrinking. Re-read thatmarkguy's comment above on holding onto perceived value for the future and you'll see what I'm talking about. We will know the answer in a couple of months probably. Until then, as I've stated, we have to agree to disagree and move on.

Ask yourself this question: Who wants a 7 dollar bauble when they can trade it up for a Path to Exile or literally any other useful card in modern? It's so niche that it really doesn't matter it is in modern. Again, I'd be pitching those things out like wildfire while the money is good.

Quote from Spsiegel1987 »

I'm going to buy it in the next few weeks regardless, but I think there's a high chance it falls below the 5 mark. It's already 7 dollars before even being released to the mass public.

I think a lot of the money cards are going to drop post release. The only ones that will likely hold a price tag are the modern format staples like Cryptic Command, Aether Vial (20% hit on value long term though), Ancestral Vision, etc. The rest that are mostly EDH are going to fall.

Edit: got done watching a couple of box opening videos. This is gonna get ugly, but that's what happens when you have a company that doesn't understand that commander bombs are only holding prices from attrition and modern staples have to be ones that are heavily played to even have a prayer of holding some value. Also, before anyone even bothers trying to bring Bauble up again as a card that is going to hold a price above 5 dollars, let me tell you about a little card called Spellskite. He was worth a little over 20 dollars, then fell off the radar for modern and only shows up as a blip once in a blue moon. He's now worth about 8 dollars. Mishra's Bauble is basically spellskite at uncommon.

What decks are still playing Ancestral Vision??

Quote from cfusionpm »

What decks are still playing Ancestral Vision??

I'm not sure, but I know it's not many. The card's only recent tournament appearances have been in some Legacy BUG builds and UWR control in Modern. I've seen some fringe play in developing Modern decks, like U/Bx Fairies, but overall it's just another card that had its value fall victim to price memory and limited supply. That seems to be the general theme with Iconic Masters as a whole; a ton of perceived value prior to release, but a dumpster fire post-release due to a general lack of demand for many of the set's chase cards.

Reprints like Thoughtseize, Aether Vial & Flusterstorm should be enough to move product and get singles into the secondary market, but IMO the EV of a box will bottom out relatively fast and take a longer-than-usual amount of time to rebound, depending on print run. I thought this might be the only Masters set that I don't end up keeping a sealed box of, but I really dig the box art and purple coloring, so I'll most likely try to scoop one up sometime in January assuming I'll be able to do so for less than $170/box. If not, I won't be upset about it; I'd be happy spending that money on singles from the set once prices bottom out.

Also, before anyone even bothers trying to bring Bauble up again as a card that is going to hold a price above 5 dollars, let me tell you about a little card called Spellskite. He was worth a little over 20 dollars, then fell off the radar for modern and only shows up as a blip once in a blue moon. He's now worth about 8 dollars. Mishra's Bauble is basically spellskite at uncommon.

You pretty much just proved my point. Its not used and still doesn't fall under the 5 buck floor. Price memory and low re-print number will do the same for Bauble.

Ask yourself this question: Who wants a 7 dollar bauble when they can trade it up for a Path to Exile or literally any other useful card in modern?

Somebody who already has a playset or more of Path because its been reprinted several times but hasn't had a chance to buy Bauble because it was from a small print set and going for way more money than its worth. Everyone who wanted Path already has their sets unless they are a new player. There are long time players out there that might want to expand their decks and are looking to buy into Bauble. Demand will outstrip supply on it fairly quickly is my guess. If you'd like to sell any you pull at 5 bucks a piece, I'll take them off your hands.

Tron is really gaining a lot of traction on mtgo, don't wait too long for it

I will be picking up my last O-Stone soon.

I think you missed something. I just said one was a rare and only reprinted at rare. This is being reprinted at uncommon. The point of the spellskite comparison is that I just showed what happened to a rare printing. This was printed at common originally and there is going to be a lot more hitting the field thanks to it being an uncommon. This isn't fatal push.

Quote from Colt47 »

I think you missed something. I just said one was a rare and only reprinted at rare. This is being reprinted at uncommon. The point of the spellskite comparison is that I just showed what happened to a rare printing. This was printed at common originally and there is going to be a lot more hitting the field thanks to it being an uncommon. This isn't fatal push.

Mishra's Bauble was an uncommon in Coldsnap....as it is in IMA. All bad comparisons between unrelated cards aside, Let's just chalk this one up as a 'let's wait and see what ends up happening' and call it a day.

Well, regardless we've now started the free fall in Iconic Masters. The boxes are selling for 170 usd and are basically being fire sold. I'm just shaking my head at the entire situation. Wizards just did not know what they were doing when they put this set together. It would have been amazing as a 120 msrp box set, but as it stands it was no where near worth 240 msrp. Also, there is a lot of Kahns block in this set.

Quote from Colt47 »

Also, there is a lot of Kahns block in this set.

There is, but it's all sub-rare draft archetype support (Prowess, Counters-matter, Dragons). Nobody's cracking packs to be disappointed in finding a Tarkir-block card in their rare or mythic slot - there are none. (Two Tarkir-block rares were downshifted to uncommons here).

They probably could have put Hardened Scales or Avatar of the Resolute at rare to help that counters-matter thing they've got going on at lower rarities. And I understand there were some rare and mythic dragons on Tarkir that would have worked in the Dragons draft archetype. But they seem to have conciously avoided rares and mythics from such a recent block.

Quote from thatmarkguy »

Quote from Colt47 »

Also, there is a lot of Kahns block in this set.

There is, but it's all sub-rare draft archetype support (Prowess, Counters-matter, Dragons). Nobody's cracking packs to be disappointed in finding a Tarkir-block card in their rare or mythic slot - there are none. (Two Tarkir-block rares were downshifted to uncommons here).

They probably could have put Hardened Scales or Avatar of the Resolute at rare to help that counters-matter thing they've got going on at lower rarities. And I understand there were some rare and mythic dragons on Tarkir that would have worked in the Dragons draft archetype. But they seem to have conciously avoided rares and mythics from such a recent block.

I think expectations were very different for this set than what wizards actually planned for it. Even though they released spoilers early, people were expecting more "iconic" cards from the past in the set like Giant Growth, Lightning Bolt, Pacifism, Kodama's Reach, Shivan Dragon, Sengir Vampire, etc. They had a lot of options that are good cards that they could have used to build an experience.

What I think wizards really was trying to do with this set was reprint a lot of cards that had really low print runs vs their demand. Horizon Canopy is a good example of this and Mishra's Bauble is a classic one. That's why it feels a lot like a commander set rather than an iconic set. They probably should have called it Commander Masters.

Quote from Colt47 »

Quote from thatmarkguy »

Quote from Colt47 »

Also, there is a lot of Kahns block in this set.

There is, but it's all sub-rare draft archetype support (Prowess, Counters-matter, Dragons). Nobody's cracking packs to be disappointed in finding a Tarkir-block card in their rare or mythic slot - there are none. (Two Tarkir-block rares were downshifted to uncommons here).

They probably could have put Hardened Scales or Avatar of the Resolute at rare to help that counters-matter thing they've got going on at lower rarities. And I understand there were some rare and mythic dragons on Tarkir that would have worked in the Dragons draft archetype. But they seem to have conciously avoided rares and mythics from such a recent block.

I think expectations were very different for this set than what wizards actually planned for it. Even though they released spoilers early, people were expecting more "iconic" cards from the past in the set like Giant Growth, Lightning Bolt, Pacifism, Kodama's Reach, Shivan Dragon, Sengir Vampire, etc. They had a lot of options that are good cards that they could have used to build an experience.

What I think wizards really was trying to do with this set was reprint a lot of cards that had really low print runs vs their demand. Horizon Canopy is a good example of this and Mishra's Bauble is a classic one. That's why it feels a lot like a commander set rather than an iconic set. They probably should have called it Commander Masters.

That may be true, however no one is trying to buy out Giant Growth. I was happy to see Mishra's Bauble, I wouldn't have been quite as happy to see Giant Growth.

I think their card choices had less to do with low print run vs demand and more to do with their perception of, and push for, draftable sets. Even if the Reserve List didn't exist, I'm sure many of the cards would never be reprinted by shear virtue of their "draft" value or whatever nonsense marker they opt to use. Imagine how radically different ABUR, as a set, would look if they were specifically designed for drafting?

There were some mishra baubles sub 5 dollars on tcg.

Consider that debate solved and proven

Quote from SavannahLion »

Quote from Colt47 »

Quote from thatmarkguy »

Quote from Colt47 »

Also, there is a lot of Kahns block in this set.

There is, but it's all sub-rare draft archetype support (Prowess, Counters-matter, Dragons). Nobody's cracking packs to be disappointed in finding a Tarkir-block card in their rare or mythic slot - there are none. (Two Tarkir-block rares were downshifted to uncommons here).

They probably could have put Hardened Scales or Avatar of the Resolute at rare to help that counters-matter thing they've got going on at lower rarities. And I understand there were some rare and mythic dragons on Tarkir that would have worked in the Dragons draft archetype. But they seem to have conciously avoided rares and mythics from such a recent block.

I think expectations were very different for this set than what wizards actually planned for it. Even though they released spoilers early, people were expecting more "iconic" cards from the past in the set like Giant Growth, Lightning Bolt, Pacifism, Kodama's Reach, Shivan Dragon, Sengir Vampire, etc. They had a lot of options that are good cards that they could have used to build an experience.

What I think wizards really was trying to do with this set was reprint a lot of cards that had really low print runs vs their demand. Horizon Canopy is a good example of this and Mishra's Bauble is a classic one. That's why it feels a lot like a commander set rather than an iconic set. They probably should have called it Commander Masters.

That may be true, however no one is trying to buy out Giant Growth. I was happy to see Mishra's Bauble, I wouldn't have been quite as happy to see Giant Growth.

I think their card choices had less to do with low print run vs demand and more to do with their perception of, and push for, draftable sets. Even if the Reserve List didn't exist, I'm sure many of the cards would never be reprinted by shear virtue of their "draft" value or whatever nonsense marker they opt to use. Imagine how radically different ABUR, as a set, would look if they were specifically designed for drafting?

I wasn't inferring they flip out money cards like bauble for giant growth. They used some rebound combat trick that only a few are familiar with instead of giant growth. They also chose rift bolt instead of lightning bolt or lava Spike, mind wrench instead of funeral charm, etc.

Quote from Colt47 »

Quote from SavannahLion »

Quote from Colt47 »

Quote from thatmarkguy »

Quote from Colt47 »

Also, there is a lot of Kahns block in this set.

There is, but it's all sub-rare draft archetype support (Prowess, Counters-matter, Dragons). Nobody's cracking packs to be disappointed in finding a Tarkir-block card in their rare or mythic slot - there are none. (Two Tarkir-block rares were downshifted to uncommons here).

They probably could have put Hardened Scales or Avatar of the Resolute at rare to help that counters-matter thing they've got going on at lower rarities. And I understand there were some rare and mythic dragons on Tarkir that would have worked in the Dragons draft archetype. But they seem to have conciously avoided rares and mythics from such a recent block.

I think expectations were very different for this set than what wizards actually planned for it. Even though they released spoilers early, people were expecting more "iconic" cards from the past in the set like Giant Growth, Lightning Bolt, Pacifism, Kodama's Reach, Shivan Dragon, Sengir Vampire, etc. They had a lot of options that are good cards that they could have used to build an experience.

What I think wizards really was trying to do with this set was reprint a lot of cards that had really low print runs vs their demand. Horizon Canopy is a good example of this and Mishra's Bauble is a classic one. That's why it feels a lot like a commander set rather than an iconic set. They probably should have called it Commander Masters.

That may be true, however no one is trying to buy out Giant Growth. I was happy to see Mishra's Bauble, I wouldn't have been quite as happy to see Giant Growth.

I think their card choices had less to do with low print run vs demand and more to do with their perception of, and push for, draftable sets. Even if the Reserve List didn't exist, I'm sure many of the cards would never be reprinted by shear virtue of their "draft" value or whatever nonsense marker they opt to use. Imagine how radically different ABUR, as a set, would look if they were specifically designed for drafting?

I wasn't inferring they flip out money cards like bauble for giant growth. They used some rebound combat trick that only a few are familiar with instead of giant growth. They also chose rift bolt instead of lightning bolt or lava Spike, mind wrench instead of funeral charm, etc.

Ah... right, I gotcha.

I was a little mystified as well by their definition of "Iconic" when I saw the final list. It seemed like the team that selected the final cards never saw a Magic card prior to 2005 or whatever. WotC really blew a golden opportunity to reprint some crazy fun and good cards.

Yeah I was happy to see Mishra's Bauble, but, you're right, it's not exactly iconic unless you started playing sometime around Coldsnap.

I still think my original comment still stands though. The cards were selected with drafting in mind and a lot of cards, especially those that tended to tip the scales using WotC New Age metric were skipped over.

The sense of direction I'm getting is that wotc is trying to move away from older cards and I'm not sure where the push is coming from. If anything people want the older cards to bridge the gap between generations of players.

Modern is literally the melting pot format where timespiral meets Kahns block, mirrodin meets kaladesh, etc. Not sure how printing cards from the last 3 years helps this goal.

Quote from Colt47 »

The sense of direction I'm getting is that wotc is trying to move away from older cards and I'm not sure where the push is coming from. If anything people want the older cards to bridge the gap between generations of players.

Modern is literally the melting pot format where timespiral meets Kahns block, mirrodin meets kaladesh, etc. Not sure how printing cards from the last 3 years helps this goal.

Maybe WotC is conditioning the card pool for a new format intended to either be some sort of stopgap between Standard and Modern or outright replace Modern and let Modern fade away into a cesspool of obscurity like Vintage and Legacy.

My store is offering 40CAD$ iconic draft tonight so I did a rapid look over of the set... and, being very generous, I counted 15 cards that interest me in the set. Being generous here means counting stuff like lightning helix which I need more of but certainly are not worth the price of a pack, and card I have zero interest in but are valuable. So I'll pass.

I'm tracking many card prices for my decks and the ones that intersect Iconic Master are sinking. The set will have very little value in the short term. One of the few cards I truly would want to open is aether vial, it it has already lost 25% of value in the last week (30CAD$ instead of 40CAD$), even after it already had slowly drifted downward in the past months. (The other other card is thoughtseize, but I haven't tracked its price recently. Seems to also have tanked a bit.)

I pulled the trigger of a set of Horizon Canopy, 32 was low enough for me, especially considering the card was over 60 a piece not long ago

Also ended up purchasing 4x foils of Baubles, whether that was an awful move I'm not sure.

Foil thoughtseizes pretty expensive.