When would be the right time to buy Ixalan cards from Standard? Sort of want test out Deathgorge Scavenger in a brew, but surprised by it's 7 dollar price tag. Is there a chance this card goes down in price a few weeks from now?
The Pro Tour will affect some cards if they or decks running them have a really poor showing. However, same token if a deck succeeds with it the card may see an additional boost. There's some risk, because I know some temur energy decks are running those in their sb to deal with reanimation strategies. You could always hedge your bet by buying one or two now, and the rest after the PT.
It’s always a gamble. I gambled on waiting to see if Legion’s Landing would come down (working on a modern casual enchantress/tokens deck). Of course, it went up. I’m quite bad at this.
It’s always a gamble. I gambled on waiting to see if Legion’s Landing would come down (working on a modern casual enchantress/tokens deck). Of course, it went up. I’m quite bad at this.
It's still early. Legion's Landing spiked because tokens is a super popular archetype casually right now. After it does not great at the pro tour it will probably come down again, but it's gonna have a good price most of its life in standard because of the casual appeal.
When would be the right time to buy Ixalan cards from Standard? Sort of want test out Deathgorge Scavenger in a brew, but surprised by it's 7 dollar price tag. Is there a chance this card goes down in price a few weeks from now?
The Pro Tour will affect some cards if they or decks running them have a really poor showing. However, same token if a deck succeeds with it the card may see an additional boost. There's some risk, because I know some temur energy decks are running those in their sb to deal with reanimation strategies. You could always hedge your bet by buying one or two now, and the rest after the PT.
Ok, thanks for the advice. My mistake in thinking that it's just a crap rare bin sold for cents, but looks like it's actually useful. Will try to trade locally if someone has a copy they do not use... because my funds for ordering online for this month are used up already.
It’s always a gamble. I gambled on waiting to see if Legion’s Landing would come down (working on a modern casual enchantress/tokens deck). Of course, it went up. I’m quite bad at this.
Hence the idea of hedging. It reduces risk and reward. For instance, I bought one Search for Azcanta to see how it would run in my standard deck. Worlds brought one mildly successful UB control deck to the front pages that doubled the price. I probably need one more Search, but I still saved overall by buying one early.
Yeah, I bought one early... and that may be my only one for a while. For my deck concept I’m not even sure I want 4 anyway. Being legendary means that even though the second one still makes its vampire, the enchantment itself doesn’t stick on the field which means it doesn’t contribute to Ethereal Armor. Or White devotion (haven’t yet nailed down if Heliod will be in the final build).
This is one of the few times in a long while where if someone pre-ordered and bought in early, they got away with a lot of value when it comes to standard. Normally there is this huge race to the bottom with sellers trying to unload everything before the pack openings start flooding the market, but without those lotto cards prices just aren't crashing as fast. My guess is there was a large number of people just buying cases to get Masterpieces and dumping the rest onto the market, causing some weak prices. Now no one is dumping anything and players are just gobbling up every copy of any rare they need.
Private Mod Note
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1. (Ravnica Allegiance): You can't keep a good esper control deck down... Or Wilderness Reclamation... or Gates...
2. (War of the Spark): Guys, I know what we need! We need a cycle of really idiotic flavor text victory cards! Jace's Triumph...
3. (War of the Spark): Lets make the format with control have even more control!
This is one of the few times in a long while where if someone pre-ordered and bought in early, they got away with a lot of value when it comes to standard. Normally there is this huge race to the bottom with sellers trying to unload everything before the pack openings start flooding the market, but without those lotto cards prices just aren't crashing as fast. My guess is there was a large number of people just buying cases to get Masterpieces and dumping the rest onto the market, causing some weak prices. Now no one is dumping anything and players are just gobbling up every copy of any rare they need.
Inflated pre-release prices were commonplace long before lottery cards were a thing. The biggest difference with Ixalan is that there's a ton of value cards at rare and the fact that it's just an overall solid set, so there are more opportunities for cards to increase in price while still having your typical share of cards with inflated pre-release prices tank post-release (e.g. Carnage Tyrant, Regisaur Alpha, Growing Rites of Itlimoc, etc). Buying cases and dumping singles into the secondary market is a business model and usually where stores, who sell online, make most of their profit; not much has changed in that regard.
This is one of the few times in a long while where if someone pre-ordered and bought in early, they got away with a lot of value when it comes to standard. Normally there is this huge race to the bottom with sellers trying to unload everything before the pack openings start flooding the market, but without those lotto cards prices just aren't crashing as fast. My guess is there was a large number of people just buying cases to get Masterpieces and dumping the rest onto the market, causing some weak prices. Now no one is dumping anything and players are just gobbling up every copy of any rare they need.
Inflated pre-release prices were commonplace long before lottery cards were a thing. The biggest difference with Ixalan is that there's a ton of value cards at rare and the fact that it's just an overall solid set, so there are more opportunities for cards to increase in price while still having your typical share of cards with inflated pre-release prices tank post-release (e.g. Carnage Tyrant, Regisaur Alpha, Growing Rites of Itlimoc, etc). Buying cases and dumping singles into the secondary market is a business model and usually where stores, who sell online, make most of their profit; not much has changed in that regard.
This is spot on. I personally noticed a huge difference ever since Jace, the Mind Sculptor Worldwake Presales. Channelfireball had them originally at $20 each and they didn't go up much until months later. I feel that having an overinflated price keeps the store insulated a little bit more on price spikes in the future, although I'm not sure that people buying less because of the high prices is worth it. They should have the data on that.
On another note, I am waiting for Growing Rites of Itlimoc to go down another $4 (to around $6 or less) so that I can pick up a few for testing. I don't think it is at its floor quite yet.
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Legacy - Sneak Show, BR Reanimator, Miracles, UW Stoneblade
Premodern - Trix, RecSur, Enchantress, Reanimator, Elves https://www.facebook.com/groups/PremodernUSA/ Modern - Neobrand, Hogaak Vine, Elves
Standard - Mono Red (6-2 and 5-3 in 2 McQ)
Draft - (I wish I had more time for limited...)
Commander - Norin the Wary, Grimgrin, Adun Oakenshield (taking forever to build) (dead format for me)
This is one of the few times in a long while where if someone pre-ordered and bought in early, they got away with a lot of value when it comes to standard. Normally there is this huge race to the bottom with sellers trying to unload everything before the pack openings start flooding the market, but without those lotto cards prices just aren't crashing as fast. My guess is there was a large number of people just buying cases to get Masterpieces and dumping the rest onto the market, causing some weak prices. Now no one is dumping anything and players are just gobbling up every copy of any rare they need.
Inflated pre-release prices were commonplace long before lottery cards were a thing. The biggest difference with Ixalan is that there's a ton of value cards at rare and the fact that it's just an overall solid set, so there are more opportunities for cards to increase in price while still having your typical share of cards with inflated pre-release prices tank post-release (e.g. Carnage Tyrant, Regisaur Alpha, Growing Rites of Itlimoc, etc). Buying cases and dumping singles into the secondary market is a business model and usually where stores, who sell online, make most of their profit; not much has changed in that regard.
This is spot on. I personally noticed a huge difference ever since Jace, the Mind Sculptor Worldwake Presales. Channelfireball had them originally at $20 each and they didn't go up much until months later. I feel that having an overinflated price keeps the store insulated a little bit more on price spikes in the future, although I'm not sure that people buying less because of the high prices is worth it. They should have the data on that.
On another note, I am waiting for Growing Rites of Itlimoc to go down another $4 (to around $6 or less) so that I can pick up a few for testing. I don't think it is at its floor quite yet.
What is powering that card right now is EDH / Commander players and the fact people aren't looking at it for it's front side effect much in standard. The search ability is actually relevant in some lists. Mechanically it looks to be more like a Cryptolith rite with a condition attached in order to get it to activate.
Private Mod Note
():
Rollback Post to RevisionRollBack
1. (Ravnica Allegiance): You can't keep a good esper control deck down... Or Wilderness Reclamation... or Gates...
2. (War of the Spark): Guys, I know what we need! We need a cycle of really idiotic flavor text victory cards! Jace's Triumph...
3. (War of the Spark): Lets make the format with control have even more control!
When would be the right time to buy Ixalan cards from Standard? Sort of want test out Deathgorge Scavenger in a brew, but surprised by it's 7 dollar price tag. Is there a chance this card goes down in price a few weeks from now?
I don't really see this card doing anything in Modern when it has to compete with Scavenging Ooze and Kitchen Finks which are better cards.
When would be the right time to buy Ixalan cards from Standard? Sort of want test out Deathgorge Scavenger in a brew, but surprised by it's 7 dollar price tag. Is there a chance this card goes down in price a few weeks from now?
I don't really see this card doing anything in Modern when it has to compete with Scavenging Ooze and Kitchen Finks which are better cards.
The homebrew deck that I'm making already use 4 Scavenging Ooze. I want to try the dino as the 5th graveyard eater. But the price is not really friendly now, so I'll wait for things to settle down a bit.... or maybe I can find someone to trade with this coming Sunday/
You also have creatures like Dryad Militant that offer similar GY-hate stapled to a creature.
Though I wonder what would require more than a set of Scooze (which most decks don't even run the full 4x-of).
Iconic masters vial is selling for $30, will it get any lower than that or only uphill from here? Predictions?
The set isn't even out yet, only a few cards via HasCon. Prices will drop still. How much I don't know, but they will.
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Playing since 1994: Currently MAGS (HomeBrew),Standard & Pauper (Pioneer and Modern are degenerate trash formats)
STOP using "dude/bro" as a pejorative or insult. Grow up.
Margaret Thatcher: “The problem with socialism is that you eventually run out of other people's money.”
Benjamin Franklin: "Those who would give up essential Liberty, to purchase a little temporary Safety, deserve neither Liberty nor Safety."
Martin Luther King Jr.: "I have a dream that my four little children will one day live in a nation where they will not be judged by the color of their skin, but by the content of their character."
Iconic masters vial is selling for $30, will it get any lower than that or only uphill from here? Predictions?
Just if you see them drop, don't wait a long while to pick them up because beyond it being a popular card it's probably one of the track b cards like fatal push was. I've noticed that wizards has been playing with the print numbers to keep prices inflated on things like Vraska in standard, as there really hasn't been as many copies of her in comparison to a few other cards from what I've heard from singles sellers.
Private Mod Note
():
Rollback Post to RevisionRollBack
1. (Ravnica Allegiance): You can't keep a good esper control deck down... Or Wilderness Reclamation... or Gates...
2. (War of the Spark): Guys, I know what we need! We need a cycle of really idiotic flavor text victory cards! Jace's Triumph...
3. (War of the Spark): Lets make the format with control have even more control!
Iconic masters vial is selling for $30, will it get any lower than that or only uphill from here? Predictions?
Just if you see them drop, don't wait a long while to pick them up because beyond it being a popular card it's probably one of the track b cards like fatal push was. I've noticed that wizards has been playing with the print numbers to keep prices inflated on things like Vraska in standard, as there really hasn't been as many copies of her in comparison to a few other cards from what I've heard from singles sellers.
WOTC needs to start placing a big warning label saying "cards in this set are subject to reprint without reason." I am not ignorant to collectible economics, but it amazes me how people think their prices should be protected.
Unless you are buying reserved list cards, your investment is always a risky proposition. Open a few CDs if you want safety.
Iconic masters vial is selling for $30, will it get any lower than that or only uphill from here? Predictions?
Just if you see them drop, don't wait a long while to pick them up because beyond it being a popular card it's probably one of the track b cards like fatal push was. I've noticed that wizards has been playing with the print numbers to keep prices inflated on things like Vraska in standard, as there really hasn't been as many copies of her in comparison to a few other cards from what I've heard from singles sellers.
Uhm, flip-cards excepted, sets have been single-rare-sheet and equal-numbers-uncommon-sheets for a while now, haven't they? The 'tracking' dictates sequencing to avoid close-pack recurrences, but the overall numbers released into the wild are dictated by the sheets and not the tracks. If there were N rare-and-mythic sheets ever printed, there are N copies of each mythic and N*2 copies of each rare out there, no matter how they were tracked, unless you're suggesting one track just dumped cards into the shredder rather than into packs.
As I understand it, the only card that ever really has an unequal true occurrence rate is the "101st common" (that occurs 5/6 as frequently as the rest of the commons).
Iconic masters vial is selling for $30, will it get any lower than that or only uphill from here? Predictions?
Just if you see them drop, don't wait a long while to pick them up because beyond it being a popular card it's probably one of the track b cards like fatal push was. I've noticed that wizards has been playing with the print numbers to keep prices inflated on things like Vraska in standard, as there really hasn't been as many copies of her in comparison to a few other cards from what I've heard from singles sellers.
Uhm, flip-cards excepted, sets have been single-rare-sheet and equal-numbers-uncommon-sheets for a while now, haven't they? The 'tracking' dictates sequencing to avoid close-pack recurrences, but the overall numbers released into the wild are dictated by the sheets and not the tracks. If there were N rare-and-mythic sheets ever printed, there are N copies of each mythic and N*2 copies of each rare out there, no matter how they were tracked, unless you're suggesting one track just dumped cards into the shredder rather than into packs.
As I understand it, the only card that ever really has an unequal true occurrence rate is the "101st common" (that occurs 5/6 as frequently as the rest of the commons).
That may be WOTC's claim, but the pack and box openings are showing significantly lower numbers of Fatal Push being opened. It's pretty well known at this point that it had a lower print run than other uncommons.
Wizards has been doing this for years now, but they print and pack cards so that some cards may show up less than others in a given rarity. I used fatal push as an example because of reports from multiple channels that when they were mass opening boxes and fat packs it was notably harder to find than other uncommon cards.
Without going deep into this, Jeremy from unsleeved media did a video on this already quite recently and maro also admitted that mythic rares in Ixalan are rarer due to the flip lands. Also, wizards has admitted some cards in a given rarity are printed less than others multiple times.
Would go more into this but at work at the moment. The entire rarity thing bugs the heck out of me.
Private Mod Note
():
Rollback Post to RevisionRollBack
1. (Ravnica Allegiance): You can't keep a good esper control deck down... Or Wilderness Reclamation... or Gates...
2. (War of the Spark): Guys, I know what we need! We need a cycle of really idiotic flavor text victory cards! Jace's Triumph...
3. (War of the Spark): Lets make the format with control have even more control!
From what recall, modern masters aether vial was around $10 when modern masters 2013 came out.
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pucatrade
big receipts
alpha mox emerald
beta time walk
4 goyfs received
3 liliana of the veil
4 karn liberated
3 force of will
4 grove of the burnwillows
snapcaster mage
3 horizon canopy
2 full art damnation
Without going deep into this, Jeremy from unsleeved media did a video on this already quite recently and maro also admitted that mythic rares in Ixalan are rarer due to the flip lands.
Yeah, this was known. Because of the flips, as you said, so wouldn't apply at all to a nonflips set like IMA. And all the Mythics in IXA are equally probable as one another (Vraska isn't more-mythic than other mythics)... but they're less frequent than past-large-set mythics overall because of the flips.
Also, wizards has admitted some cards in a given rarity are printed less than others multiple times.
Also known, but as I stated before, the only actual practical instance of this in recent sets is the 101st common. One common in IXA was printed 5/6 as frequently as the other 100 commons. (Usually the 'odd common' is an artifact or a fixing land - in IXA I would guess it was Unknown Shores. ) The commons are comprised of 2 sheets, one has 40 commons each appearing 3 times (C3) plus one instance of the odd common, and one has 60 commons each appearing twice (C2) plus that same odd common. The former is printed 2 times for every 3 printings of the latter, resulting in there being 5 copies of the odd common for every 6 copies of each other one.
But 80-uncommon sets have 2 equally-printed sheets of 40 U3s plus a throwaway filler. 60-uncommon sets have one sheet of 60 U2s plus a throwaway filler. 53-rare sets have 1 sheet of 53 R2s (rares) and 15 R1s (mythics). Again, unless you're contesting that they're actually throwing cards (other than the filler) away, these quantities and proportions are known. Tracks determine sequencing, not total distribution.
If it is a fact that there are fewer Fatal Pushes in circulation, I would suspect that it was a printing and quality control issue - if the sheet was prone to mangle the card in a specific spot on the print sheet and those cards were apt to get filtered away because of said mangling, then a single card could have its circulation virtually halved by that (Concealed Courtyard would probably have a notably lower distribution if they were better at detecting such recurring issues based on placement on the print sheet - it had an unusually high number of ink errors). But it's tinfoil-hat-conspiracy-theory time if the suggestion is that they deliberately destroyed that card for market control reasons.
More likely: confirmation bias. For any given case opening, simple probability dictates that some uncommon would occur the least-frequently, and half the uncommons would appear somewhat less than frequently as expected. The people whose cases had fewer Enraged Giant never even noticed because they weren't counting Enranged Giants, and they didn't report about their normal number of Fatal Pushes because people seldom report on normalcy. But the people who were counting Fatal Pushes and binning every other uncommon - if they were the ones for whom Fatal Push occurred a below-average number of times, they'd be apt to raise an audible stink.
Without going deep into this, Jeremy from unsleeved media did a video on this already quite recently and maro also admitted that mythic rares in Ixalan are rarer due to the flip lands.
Yeah, this was known. Because of the flips, as you said, so wouldn't apply at all to a nonflips set like IMA. And all the Mythics in IXA are equally probable as one another (Vraska isn't more-mythic than other mythics)... but they're less frequent than past-large-set mythics overall because of the flips.
Also, wizards has admitted some cards in a given rarity are printed less than others multiple times.
Also known, but as I stated before, the only actual practical instance of this in recent sets is the 101st common. One common in IXA was printed 5/6 as frequently as the other 100 commons. (Usually the 'odd common' is an artifact or a fixing land - in IXA I would guess it was Unknown Shores. ) The commons are comprised of 2 sheets, one has 40 commons each appearing 3 times (C3) plus one instance of the odd common, and one has 60 commons each appearing twice (C2) plus that same odd common. The former is printed 2 times for every 3 printings of the latter, resulting in there being 5 copies of the odd common for every 6 copies of each other one.
But 80-uncommon sets have 2 equally-printed sheets of 40 U3s plus a throwaway filler. 60-uncommon sets have one sheet of 60 U2s plus a throwaway filler. 53-rare sets have 1 sheet of 53 R2s (rares) and 15 R1s (mythics). Again, unless you're contesting that they're actually throwing cards (other than the filler) away, these quantities and proportions are known. Tracks determine sequencing, not total distribution.
If it is a fact that there are fewer Fatal Pushes in circulation, I would suspect that it was a printing and quality control issue - if the sheet was prone to mangle the card in a specific spot on the print sheet and those cards were apt to get filtered away because of said mangling, then a single card could have its circulation virtually halved by that (Concealed Courtyard would probably have a notably lower distribution if they were better at detecting such recurring issues based on placement on the print sheet - it had an unusually high number of ink errors). But it's tinfoil-hat-conspiracy-theory time if the suggestion is that they deliberately destroyed that card for market control reasons.
More likely: confirmation bias. For any given case opening, simple probability dictates that some uncommon would occur the least-frequently, and half the uncommons would appear somewhat less than frequently as expected. The people whose cases had fewer Enraged Giant never even noticed because they weren't counting Enranged Giants, and they didn't report about their normal number of Fatal Pushes because people seldom report on normalcy. But the people who were counting Fatal Pushes and binning every other uncommon - if they were the ones for whom Fatal Push occurred a below-average number of times, they'd be apt to raise an audible stink.
In the case of fatal push, the sheer volume opened across multiple venues gives plenty of credence that there is a lot wotc is loath to share. The fact is that they want people to open packs and if they know which cards will drive people to do so over others making them have to statistically open more to do so is in their best interest. They also probably wouldn't admit to doing it for that reason due to the ramifications of admitting to it.
Private Mod Note
():
Rollback Post to RevisionRollBack
1. (Ravnica Allegiance): You can't keep a good esper control deck down... Or Wilderness Reclamation... or Gates...
2. (War of the Spark): Guys, I know what we need! We need a cycle of really idiotic flavor text victory cards! Jace's Triumph...
3. (War of the Spark): Lets make the format with control have even more control!
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The Pro Tour will affect some cards if they or decks running them have a really poor showing. However, same token if a deck succeeds with it the card may see an additional boost. There's some risk, because I know some temur energy decks are running those in their sb to deal with reanimation strategies. You could always hedge your bet by buying one or two now, and the rest after the PT.
It's still early. Legion's Landing spiked because tokens is a super popular archetype casually right now. After it does not great at the pro tour it will probably come down again, but it's gonna have a good price most of its life in standard because of the casual appeal.
Ok, thanks for the advice. My mistake in thinking that it's just a crap rare bin sold for cents, but looks like it's actually useful. Will try to trade locally if someone has a copy they do not use... because my funds for ordering online for this month are used up already.
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Want to play a UW control deck in modern, but don't have jace or snaps?
Please come visit us at the Emeria Titan control thread
Hence the idea of hedging. It reduces risk and reward. For instance, I bought one Search for Azcanta to see how it would run in my standard deck. Worlds brought one mildly successful UB control deck to the front pages that doubled the price. I probably need one more Search, but I still saved overall by buying one early.
1. (Ravnica Allegiance): You can't keep a good esper control deck down... Or Wilderness Reclamation... or Gates...
2. (War of the Spark): Guys, I know what we need! We need a cycle of really idiotic flavor text victory cards! Jace's Triumph...
3. (War of the Spark): Lets make the format with control have even more control!
Inflated pre-release prices were commonplace long before lottery cards were a thing. The biggest difference with Ixalan is that there's a ton of value cards at rare and the fact that it's just an overall solid set, so there are more opportunities for cards to increase in price while still having your typical share of cards with inflated pre-release prices tank post-release (e.g. Carnage Tyrant, Regisaur Alpha, Growing Rites of Itlimoc, etc). Buying cases and dumping singles into the secondary market is a business model and usually where stores, who sell online, make most of their profit; not much has changed in that regard.
Link to Discord server where anybody from MTGS can keep up with thread topics while everything is being sorted out with the new site.
This is spot on. I personally noticed a huge difference ever since Jace, the Mind Sculptor Worldwake Presales. Channelfireball had them originally at $20 each and they didn't go up much until months later. I feel that having an overinflated price keeps the store insulated a little bit more on price spikes in the future, although I'm not sure that people buying less because of the high prices is worth it. They should have the data on that.
On another note, I am waiting for Growing Rites of Itlimoc to go down another $4 (to around $6 or less) so that I can pick up a few for testing. I don't think it is at its floor quite yet.
Premodern - Trix, RecSur, Enchantress, Reanimator, Elves https://www.facebook.com/groups/PremodernUSA/
Modern - Neobrand, Hogaak Vine, Elves
Standard - Mono Red (6-2 and 5-3 in 2 McQ)
Draft - (I wish I had more time for limited...)
Commander -
Norin the Wary, Grimgrin, Adun Oakenshield (taking forever to build)(dead format for me)What is powering that card right now is EDH / Commander players and the fact people aren't looking at it for it's front side effect much in standard. The search ability is actually relevant in some lists. Mechanically it looks to be more like a Cryptolith rite with a condition attached in order to get it to activate.
1. (Ravnica Allegiance): You can't keep a good esper control deck down... Or Wilderness Reclamation... or Gates...
2. (War of the Spark): Guys, I know what we need! We need a cycle of really idiotic flavor text victory cards! Jace's Triumph...
3. (War of the Spark): Lets make the format with control have even more control!
I don't really see this card doing anything in Modern when it has to compete with Scavenging Ooze and Kitchen Finks which are better cards.
The homebrew deck that I'm making already use 4 Scavenging Ooze. I want to try the dino as the 5th graveyard eater. But the price is not really friendly now, so I'll wait for things to settle down a bit.... or maybe I can find someone to trade with this coming Sunday/
Nexus MTG News // Nexus - Magic Art Gallery // MTG Dual Land Color Ratios Analyzer // MTG Card Drawing Odds Calculator
Want to play a UW control deck in modern, but don't have jace or snaps?
Please come visit us at the Emeria Titan control thread
Though I wonder what would require more than a set of Scooze (which most decks don't even run the full 4x-of).
A meta full of 19 dredge decks and his
RBU
Splinter Twin (RIP)/DelverRBUUUUMono U TronUUU
GRGGR TronGRG
GWURKnight FallGWUR
Legacy
GWBDark MaverickGWB
--> EDH <--
BWUErtai, the CorruptedBWU
RG 8-Whack
BWG Abzan midrange
GRB Living End
UWB Spirit Control
GU Kruphix's "Hug Assassin"
RW Kalemne's "Play Fatties and Hope for the Best!"
BUGW Atraxa's "All counters, all the time"
The set isn't even out yet, only a few cards via HasCon. Prices will drop still. How much I don't know, but they will.
STOP using "dude/bro" as a pejorative or insult. Grow up.
Margaret Thatcher: “The problem with socialism is that you eventually run out of other people's money.”
Benjamin Franklin: "Those who would give up essential Liberty, to purchase a little temporary Safety, deserve neither Liberty nor Safety."
Martin Luther King Jr.: "I have a dream that my four little children will one day live in a nation where they will not be judged by the color of their skin, but by the content of their character."
Just if you see them drop, don't wait a long while to pick them up because beyond it being a popular card it's probably one of the track b cards like fatal push was. I've noticed that wizards has been playing with the print numbers to keep prices inflated on things like Vraska in standard, as there really hasn't been as many copies of her in comparison to a few other cards from what I've heard from singles sellers.
1. (Ravnica Allegiance): You can't keep a good esper control deck down... Or Wilderness Reclamation... or Gates...
2. (War of the Spark): Guys, I know what we need! We need a cycle of really idiotic flavor text victory cards! Jace's Triumph...
3. (War of the Spark): Lets make the format with control have even more control!
WOTC needs to start placing a big warning label saying "cards in this set are subject to reprint without reason." I am not ignorant to collectible economics, but it amazes me how people think their prices should be protected.
Unless you are buying reserved list cards, your investment is always a risky proposition. Open a few CDs if you want safety.
Uhm, flip-cards excepted, sets have been single-rare-sheet and equal-numbers-uncommon-sheets for a while now, haven't they? The 'tracking' dictates sequencing to avoid close-pack recurrences, but the overall numbers released into the wild are dictated by the sheets and not the tracks. If there were N rare-and-mythic sheets ever printed, there are N copies of each mythic and N*2 copies of each rare out there, no matter how they were tracked, unless you're suggesting one track just dumped cards into the shredder rather than into packs.
As I understand it, the only card that ever really has an unequal true occurrence rate is the "101st common" (that occurs 5/6 as frequently as the rest of the commons).
That may be WOTC's claim, but the pack and box openings are showing significantly lower numbers of Fatal Push being opened. It's pretty well known at this point that it had a lower print run than other uncommons.
Without going deep into this, Jeremy from unsleeved media did a video on this already quite recently and maro also admitted that mythic rares in Ixalan are rarer due to the flip lands. Also, wizards has admitted some cards in a given rarity are printed less than others multiple times.
Would go more into this but at work at the moment. The entire rarity thing bugs the heck out of me.
1. (Ravnica Allegiance): You can't keep a good esper control deck down... Or Wilderness Reclamation... or Gates...
2. (War of the Spark): Guys, I know what we need! We need a cycle of really idiotic flavor text victory cards! Jace's Triumph...
3. (War of the Spark): Lets make the format with control have even more control!
pucatrade
big receipts
alpha mox emerald
beta time walk
4 goyfs received
3 liliana of the veil
4 karn liberated
3 force of will
4 grove of the burnwillows
snapcaster mage
3 horizon canopy
2 full art damnation
Yeah, this was known. Because of the flips, as you said, so wouldn't apply at all to a nonflips set like IMA. And all the Mythics in IXA are equally probable as one another (Vraska isn't more-mythic than other mythics)... but they're less frequent than past-large-set mythics overall because of the flips.
Also known, but as I stated before, the only actual practical instance of this in recent sets is the 101st common. One common in IXA was printed 5/6 as frequently as the other 100 commons. (Usually the 'odd common' is an artifact or a fixing land - in IXA I would guess it was Unknown Shores. ) The commons are comprised of 2 sheets, one has 40 commons each appearing 3 times (C3) plus one instance of the odd common, and one has 60 commons each appearing twice (C2) plus that same odd common. The former is printed 2 times for every 3 printings of the latter, resulting in there being 5 copies of the odd common for every 6 copies of each other one.
But 80-uncommon sets have 2 equally-printed sheets of 40 U3s plus a throwaway filler. 60-uncommon sets have one sheet of 60 U2s plus a throwaway filler. 53-rare sets have 1 sheet of 53 R2s (rares) and 15 R1s (mythics). Again, unless you're contesting that they're actually throwing cards (other than the filler) away, these quantities and proportions are known. Tracks determine sequencing, not total distribution.
If it is a fact that there are fewer Fatal Pushes in circulation, I would suspect that it was a printing and quality control issue - if the sheet was prone to mangle the card in a specific spot on the print sheet and those cards were apt to get filtered away because of said mangling, then a single card could have its circulation virtually halved by that (Concealed Courtyard would probably have a notably lower distribution if they were better at detecting such recurring issues based on placement on the print sheet - it had an unusually high number of ink errors). But it's tinfoil-hat-conspiracy-theory time if the suggestion is that they deliberately destroyed that card for market control reasons.
More likely: confirmation bias. For any given case opening, simple probability dictates that some uncommon would occur the least-frequently, and half the uncommons would appear somewhat less than frequently as expected. The people whose cases had fewer Enraged Giant never even noticed because they weren't counting Enranged Giants, and they didn't report about their normal number of Fatal Pushes because people seldom report on normalcy. But the people who were counting Fatal Pushes and binning every other uncommon - if they were the ones for whom Fatal Push occurred a below-average number of times, they'd be apt to raise an audible stink.
I bought a play set of LP Darksteel Vials for $115 about 6 months ago...it'll definitely dip in value.
Link to Discord server where anybody from MTGS can keep up with thread topics while everything is being sorted out with the new site.
In the case of fatal push, the sheer volume opened across multiple venues gives plenty of credence that there is a lot wotc is loath to share. The fact is that they want people to open packs and if they know which cards will drive people to do so over others making them have to statistically open more to do so is in their best interest. They also probably wouldn't admit to doing it for that reason due to the ramifications of admitting to it.
1. (Ravnica Allegiance): You can't keep a good esper control deck down... Or Wilderness Reclamation... or Gates...
2. (War of the Spark): Guys, I know what we need! We need a cycle of really idiotic flavor text victory cards! Jace's Triumph...
3. (War of the Spark): Lets make the format with control have even more control!