One question. Why is Urabrask, the Hidden currently 9 dollars each? Is there a deck in Modern using him. Or is it because of EDH?
If you ever wonder this about any card, just search a decklist site like mtgtop8 or mtgdecks for the card in the format. For example, a search for Urabrask in Modern yields 0 decks: https://mtgdecks.net/decks/index/format_id:50/cards:urabrask
There's also TONS of fear and uncertainty in Modern, likely reducing the desire for new players to buy in or for current players to build new decks. Because Modern has been in more or less chaos for a year and a half, every B&R update is a hold-your-breath moment. And with the lack of timely events from which to generate solid pictures of the format, we have to rely on things like SCG Classics and MTGO Leagues to figure out what's probably going to be banned next.
The downward trending prices are probably a combination of a people gravitating towards cheaper decks whenever possible, people not wanting to invest heavily in new decks, an unknown feel to the field, and a general uncertainty with regards to investing in staples for the most ban-happy format in Magic.
I'd say overall prices have gone down. But off the top of my head, i know a lot of stuff from the ad nauseam deck jumped in price. and stuff like eldrazi temple, surgical extraction, karn liberated, through the breach, ect have gone up.
I'm guessing the increased speed at which they churn out new sets is good for hasbro/wizards; it probably drops profits per set but overall yearly profits is generally maximized with this strategy.
On the right, summer 2016, on the left, today May 7 2017. Total drop in format value from nearly 4000$ to 1200$.
Goldfish data, "fished" out with the Wayback machine.
The data you presented is incomplete. On the date you pulled, the modern staples section contained 236 cards; the current version is only 61. The new list is missing entire decks like Tron, Burn, and Scapeshift/Titan.
There's also TONS of fear and uncertainty in Modern, likely reducing the desire for new players to buy in or for current players to build new decks. Because Modern has been in more or less chaos for a year and a half, every B&R update is a hold-your-breath moment. And with the lack of timely events from which to generate solid pictures of the format, we have to rely on things like SCG Classics and MTGO Leagues to figure out what's probably going to be banned next.
The downward trending prices are probably a combination of a people gravitating towards cheaper decks whenever possible, people not wanting to invest heavily in new decks, an unknown feel to the field, and a general uncertainty with regards to investing in staples for the most ban-happy format in Magic.
gee, what happened approximately a year and a half ago?
Please stop lacing non-Twin related topics with such thinly veiled bias. There's no more fear or uncertainty about Modern as there is about any other format, or the game as a whole.
If prices are down and if they stay down, it's simply because the reprinting effect has stopped bringing players into Modern from other formats and Masters sets are basically just mini Chronicles sets now.
There's also TONS of fear and uncertainty in Modern, likely reducing the desire for new players to buy in or for current players to build new decks. Because Modern has been in more or less chaos for a year and a half, every B&R update is a hold-your-breath moment. And with the lack of timely events from which to generate solid pictures of the format, we have to rely on things like SCG Classics and MTGO Leagues to figure out what's probably going to be banned next.
The downward trending prices are probably a combination of a people gravitating towards cheaper decks whenever possible, people not wanting to invest heavily in new decks, an unknown feel to the field, and a general uncertainty with regards to investing in staples for the most ban-happy format in Magic.
gee, what happened approximately a year and a half ago?
Please stop lacing non-Twin related topics with such thinly veiled bias. There's no more fear or uncertainty about Modern as there is about any other format, or the game as a whole.
It's not just that, there was also Eldrazi Winter, multiple other bans, and mostly a chaotic swirling meta dominated by fast/linear decks or big mana, several of which also received bans. Modern has been the Wild West ever since the floodgates opened and dumping your hand with no fear of repercussions became the best winning strategy. Perhaps that means people are more likely to build cheap, random decks than try to spend thousands on high end established decks. A random cheap 80/20 "Gotcha!" deck is likely going to be more fun for all the random new Modern players than buying a $1,000 deck that may or may not eat a ban at any time. For whatever reason, people are not buying like they used to. That's my thoughts on why.
I actually think one part is demand lost due the loss of consumer confidence. I used to buy cards i liked even if i wouldn´t use them for a deck soon. If it was an interesting card, i bought a playset to maybe play someday. But that doesn´t make sense anymore. If you buy them when they are standard legal, you are most likly paying more for them when years later, even if they see play in modern - all due to reprints. Or the price crashes completly if it doesnt see modern play. Why take that risk if there is no possible reward? So i started only getting the cards i want for decks i want to play now, but that took away about 90% of the demand i had for cards. And i know at least 3 other people in my area, who did it the same way i did. There might be more people who don´t want to invest in magic anymore.
I agree, I'm really cautious on buying cards at the moment I just don't trust wizards anymore. Wizards is to concern about making money and less on shaping an environment of stability. They need to stop banning cards and just print more answers to fix the problems. People are to scared to buy in. It's not just modern either it's the same thing in standard.
I actually think one part is demand lost due the loss of consumer confidence. I used to buy cards i liked even if i wouldn´t use them for a deck soon. If it was an interesting card, i bought a playset to maybe play someday. But that doesn´t make sense anymore. If you buy them when they are standard legal, you are most likly paying more for them when years later, even if they see play in modern - all due to reprints. Or the price crashes completly if it doesnt see modern play. Why take that risk if there is no possible reward? So i started only getting the cards i want for decks i want to play now, but that took away about 90% of the demand i had for cards. And i know at least 3 other people in my area, who did it the same way i did. There might be more people who don´t want to invest in magic anymore.
I agree, I'm really cautious on buying cards at the moment I just don't trust wizards anymore. Wizards is to concern about making money and less on shaping an environment of stability. They need to stop banning cards and just print more answers to fix the problems. People are to scared to buy in. It's not just modern either it's the same thing in standard.
Yeah, I don't mind the reprints, but the bannings have got to stop. I've lost the use of so many cards I love thanks to overzealous banhammer at WotC.
Furthermore this drop is observed in both Pauper and Legacy.
I don't know about Pauper, but Legacy has taken a double hit from Dual Lands getting too expensive and SCG dropping their tournament support for that format.
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WoTC, thank you for finally announcing the Modern format, an eternal format where everyone can participate.
Kind of jumping the cycle a bit on claiming prices are down. The prices from MM17 rebounded faster then the previous MM sets (meaning hit bottom and headed back up). Usually takes 6 months to see those high end cards get back to their old pricing. We are 2 months in, maybe a bit more? Lets see what the charts look like at the end of summer to see if its a true drop in prices.
I'm sorry but I'm going to disregard that, as that data is extremely suspect.
How is that total calculated? Sum of the individual price of every card? I don't see how that's a good indicator of the cost of the format. You need weights. The best weight I can think of is the average number of copies of every card in the decks that have at least one copy. So Tarmogoyf would be x4, Liliana like x3, Karn x3.2 or some such...
I have only seen "good" cards going up month after month and some barely going down. Could be true that overal it's a ton down since last year, but that raises a big alarm for me. Three cards that are one-offs going from $4 a piece to $1 really don't matter. A 4-off that goes up from $20 a piece to $30 (or worse) hurts the format.
There's also TONS of fear and uncertainty in Modern, likely reducing the desire for new players to buy in or for current players to build new decks. Because Modern has been in more or less chaos for a year and a half, every B&R update is a hold-your-breath moment. And with the lack of timely events from which to generate solid pictures of the format, we have to rely on things like SCG Classics and MTGO Leagues to figure out what's probably going to be banned next.
The downward trending prices are probably a combination of a people gravitating towards cheaper decks whenever possible, people not wanting to invest heavily in new decks, an unknown feel to the field, and a general uncertainty with regards to investing in staples for the most ban-happy format in Magic.
gee, what happened approximately a year and a half ago?
Please stop lacing non-Twin related topics with such thinly veiled bias. There's no more fear or uncertainty about Modern as there is about any other format, or the game as a whole.
It's not just that, there was also Eldrazi Winter, multiple other bans, and mostly a chaotic swirling meta dominated by fast/linear decks or big mana, several of which also received bans. Modern has been the Wild West ever since the floodgates opened and dumping your hand with no fear of repercussions became the best winning strategy. Perhaps that means people are more likely to build cheap, random decks than try to spend thousands on high end established decks. A random cheap 80/20 "Gotcha!" deck is likely going to be more fun for all the random new Modern players than buying a $1,000 deck that may or may not eat a ban at any time. For whatever reason, people are not buying like they used to. That's my thoughts on why.
Modern has actually always been exactly as you just described. Affinity has always been a top-tier deck. They made multiple bans to Storm and Jund. They banned Pod. Delver got "too good" (though I don't remember it being too good, but whatevs) with TC. It hasn't just been since the Twin ban. The format has ALWAYS been like that. And yet demand grew tremendously with the first MM set and a good amount with the second. That's because of cross-format mobility from the player base. But that's a one-time experience per player. That well is now dry, and current reprint sets are just acting as mini-Chronicles. But it has nothing to do with player confidence or bans - those things are the same as they've always been.
That well is now dry, and current reprint sets are just acting as mini-Chronicles. But it has nothing to do with player confidence or bans - those things are the same as they've always been.
We used to hold the belief that decks need to break specific and predictable guidelines in order to get banned (Turn 4 rule, oppressive meta share, logistics, etc.). Ever since the Twin ban, that logic has been thrown out the window. With the recent bannings of Probe and GGT, we have even less to go on in terms of predicting bans (especially when combined with the salt-the-earth bannings of Copter/Reflector Mage/Emrakul in Standard). This seems to combine with the ramped up reprint policies to create a perfect storm of confidence reduction for investing in expensive cards and decks. There's just so little of an upside to buying expensive cards unless you absolutely have to have them for a deck you absolutely have to play. I feel the loss of player confidence is explained easily: 1) the risk of ban is both relatively high and relatively unpredictable, 2) the "risk" of reprints is at an all time high, and 3) cheap, budget decks that don't require expensive staples are often completely serviceable for local FNM events. All of these come together to point to a decrease in overall demand of expensive staples.
Similar to other posters here, I have cut back significantly on buying anything. My Delver deck actually got foiled out over 2016 because I had started the process originally with Twin. I figured because Delver was so firmly Tier 2, it would never eat a ban and completed foiling it (minus Scalding Tarns until MM17 released) just before Probe was banned. Now that Delver is more or less unplayable at a competitive level, I had to spend a couple bucks for Death's Shadows, Street Wraiths, and stare at a binder full of wasted money. But I have no intention of buying anything else until DS is banned and I have to start over yet again. No need to risk throwing money at cards and decks and foils anymore. I know I can't be the only one to feel this way. My confidence in spending money on this game has taken several massive hits recently.
That being said, if someone so desires to buy into the format, lower prices are only a good thing.
That well is now dry, and current reprint sets are just acting as mini-Chronicles. But it has nothing to do with player confidence or bans - those things are the same as they've always been.
We used to hold the belief that decks need to break specific and predictable guidelines in order to get banned (Turn 4 rule, oppressive meta share, logistics, etc.). Ever since the Twin ban, that logic has been thrown out the window. With the recent bannings of Probe and GGT, we have even less to go on in terms of predicting bans (especially when combined with the salt-the-earth bannings of Copter/Reflector Mage/Emrakul in Standard). This seems to combine with the ramped up reprint policies to create a perfect storm of confidence reduction for investing in expensive cards and decks. There's just so little of an upside to buying expensive cards unless you absolutely have to have them for a deck you absolutely have to play. I feel the loss of player confidence is explained easily: 1) the risk of ban is both relatively high and relatively unpredictable, 2) the "risk" of reprints is at an all time high, and 3) cheap, budget decks that don't require expensive staples are often completely serviceable for local FNM events. All of these come together to point to a decrease in overall demand of expensive staples.
Similar to other posters here, I have cut back significantly on buying anything. My Delver deck actually got foiled out over 2016 because I had started the process originally with Twin. I figured because Delver was so firmly Tier 2, it would never eat a ban and completed foiling it (minus Scalding Tarns until MM17 released) just before Probe was banned. Now that Delver is more or less unplayable at a competitive level, I had to spend a couple bucks for Death's Shadows, Street Wraiths, and stare at a binder full of wasted money. But I have no intention of buying anything else until DS is banned and I have to start over yet again. No need to risk throwing money at cards and decks and foils anymore. I know I can't be the only one to feel this way. My confidence in spending money on this game has taken several massive hits recently.
That being said, if someone so desires to buy into the format, lower prices are only a good thing.
See, of all the decks I would think would be great to foil out, Delver would be way up near the top, because for some changes that shouldn't be too bad if you can already afford foil Tarns, you have a top Legacy deck
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Project Booster Fun makes it less fun to open a booster.
That well is now dry, and current reprint sets are just acting as mini-Chronicles. But it has nothing to do with player confidence or bans - those things are the same as they've always been.
We used to hold the belief that decks need to break specific and predictable guidelines in order to get banned (Turn 4 rule, oppressive meta share, logistics, etc.). Ever since the Twin ban, that logic has been thrown out the window. With the recent bannings of Probe and GGT, we have even less to go on in terms of predicting bans (especially when combined with the salt-the-earth bannings of Copter/Reflector Mage/Emrakul in Standard). This seems to combine with the ramped up reprint policies to create a perfect storm of confidence reduction for investing in expensive cards and decks.
Who used to hold that? The users on the MTGSalvation echo-chamber? Sure. You'd be hard-pressed to prove it ever extended beyond that, never mind at WOTC. Even here in MTGS we've always reiterated that our metrics were just best guesses based on limited prior data points. And then of course there's the fact that the Twin ban was still within that same framework and not an outlier, like many people like to believe. Probe and GGT were also predictable.
That well is now dry, and current reprint sets are just acting as mini-Chronicles. But it has nothing to do with player confidence or bans - those things are the same as they've always been.
We used to hold the belief that decks need to break specific and predictable guidelines in order to get banned (Turn 4 rule, oppressive meta share, logistics, etc.). Ever since the Twin ban, that logic has been thrown out the window. With the recent bannings of Probe and GGT, we have even less to go on in terms of predicting bans (especially when combined with the salt-the-earth bannings of Copter/Reflector Mage/Emrakul in Standard). This seems to combine with the ramped up reprint policies to create a perfect storm of confidence reduction for investing in expensive cards and decks.
Who used to hold that? The users on the MTGSalvation echo-chamber? Sure. You'd be hard-pressed to prove it ever extended beyond that, never mind at WOTC. Even here in MTGS we've always reiterated that our metrics were just best guesses based on limited prior data points. And then of course there's the fact that the Twin ban was still within that same framework and not an outlier, like many people like to believe. Probe and GGT were also predictable.
There was nearly universal consensus was around Become Immense and "Something out of Dredge," with most people predicting Amalgam or Cathartic Reunion. Probe felt fairly random and arbitrary, in addition to not being predicted at all. It also hurt the best URx deck at the time (Delver). As for Twin, there are thousands of words written by several authors about how it does not follow the pattern of any previous ban except for one, small, specific criteria, which mostly became irrelevant with the removal of the Modern PT. It was a surprise and shock to most of the community, and was mostly justified retroactively. But if you want to complain about this, do it in the proper thread. This is about prices. If you feel my analysis for why the price trends are what they are is incorrect, then provide a counterpoint with supporting evidence. "Prices have nothing to do with player confidence" isn't exactly a convincing stance on its own.
That well is now dry, and current reprint sets are just acting as mini-Chronicles. But it has nothing to do with player confidence or bans - those things are the same as they've always been.
We used to hold the belief that decks need to break specific and predictable guidelines in order to get banned (Turn 4 rule, oppressive meta share, logistics, etc.). Ever since the Twin ban, that logic has been thrown out the window. With the recent bannings of Probe and GGT, we have even less to go on in terms of predicting bans (especially when combined with the salt-the-earth bannings of Copter/Reflector Mage/Emrakul in Standard). This seems to combine with the ramped up reprint policies to create a perfect storm of confidence reduction for investing in expensive cards and decks. There's just so little of an upside to buying expensive cards unless you absolutely have to have them for a deck you absolutely have to play. I feel the loss of player confidence is explained easily: 1) the risk of ban is both relatively high and relatively unpredictable, 2) the "risk" of reprints is at an all time high, and 3) cheap, budget decks that don't require expensive staples are often completely serviceable for local FNM events. All of these come together to point to a decrease in overall demand of expensive staples.
Similar to other posters here, I have cut back significantly on buying anything. My Delver deck actually got foiled out over 2016 because I had started the process originally with Twin. I figured because Delver was so firmly Tier 2, it would never eat a ban and completed foiling it (minus Scalding Tarns until MM17 released) just before Probe was banned. Now that Delver is more or less unplayable at a competitive level, I had to spend a couple bucks for Death's Shadows, Street Wraiths, and stare at a binder full of wasted money. But I have no intention of buying anything else until DS is banned and I have to start over yet again. No need to risk throwing money at cards and decks and foils anymore. I know I can't be the only one to feel this way. My confidence in spending money on this game has taken several massive hits recently.
That being said, if someone so desires to buy into the format, lower prices are only a good thing.
See, of all the decks I would think would be great to foil out, Delver would be way up near the top, because for some changes that shouldn't be too bad if you can already afford foil Tarns, you have a top Legacy deck
That was one of the reasons I could justify it. But there are plenty of random cards that don't fit anywhere else that are just collecting dust in a binder these days. If I wanted to foil out my current deck (Grixis Shadow), I would need to spend hundreds on Thoughtseizes, IOKs, DSs, Wraiths, Denials, and silly things like Liliana, the Last Hope. Waste of time and money because confidence in retained value isn't there anymore. Foil fetchlands are about the only thing I can justify these days.
That well is now dry, and current reprint sets are just acting as mini-Chronicles. But it has nothing to do with player confidence or bans - those things are the same as they've always been.
We used to hold the belief that decks need to break specific and predictable guidelines in order to get banned (Turn 4 rule, oppressive meta share, logistics, etc.). Ever since the Twin ban, that logic has been thrown out the window. With the recent bannings of Probe and GGT, we have even less to go on in terms of predicting bans (especially when combined with the salt-the-earth bannings of Copter/Reflector Mage/Emrakul in Standard). This seems to combine with the ramped up reprint policies to create a perfect storm of confidence reduction for investing in expensive cards and decks.
Who used to hold that? The users on the MTGSalvation echo-chamber? Sure. You'd be hard-pressed to prove it ever extended beyond that, never mind at WOTC. Even here in MTGS we've always reiterated that our metrics were just best guesses based on limited prior data points. And then of course there's the fact that the Twin ban was still within that same framework and not an outlier, like many people like to believe. Probe and GGT were also predictable.
There was nearly universal consensus was around Become Immense and "Something out of Dredge," with most people predicting Amalgam or Cathartic Reunion. Probe felt fairly random and arbitrary, in addition to not being predicted at all. It also hurt the best URx deck at the time (Delver). As for Twin, there are thousands of words written by several authors about how it does not follow the pattern of any previous ban except for one, small, specific criteria, which mostly became irrelevant with the removal of the Modern PT. It was a surprise and shock to most of the community, and was mostly justified retroactively. But if you want to complain about this, do it in the proper thread. This is about prices. If you feel my analysis for why the price trends are what they are is incorrect, then provide a counterpoint with supporting evidence. "Prices have nothing to do with player confidence" isn't exactly a convincing stance on its own.
Oh c'mon. Don't lob around the "you provided no evidence" thing when a) no evidence exists one way or the other and b) you have none either (see a). That's one of the worst internet trolling mechanisms there is.
Regardless, don't just paraphrase the conclusion when anybody reading the posts can well see the argument leading to that conclusion.
Can we keep the discussion about Modern prices please?
Thank you. Would love it if the Twin poison wouldn't pervade every thread.
I think one of the other things about the current prices is that we're currently in the MOST balanced Modern meta game the format has ever seen. As such the syndrome of buying into the "best deck" is being diluted and driving prices down as more and more strategies/decks are viable. That and reprints without the added format growth.
What in the name of Heliod is going on with Dusk Urchins?
Some of these spikes make about zero sense.
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Playing since 1994: Currently MAGS (HomeBrew),Standard & Pauper (Pioneer and Modern are degenerate trash formats)
STOP using "dude/bro" as a pejorative or insult. Grow up.
Margaret Thatcher: “The problem with socialism is that you eventually run out of other people's money.”
Benjamin Franklin: "Those who would give up essential Liberty, to purchase a little temporary Safety, deserve neither Liberty nor Safety."
Martin Luther King Jr.: "I have a dream that my four little children will one day live in a nation where they will not be judged by the color of their skin, but by the content of their character."
What in the name of Heliod is going on with Dusk Urchins?
Some of these spikes make about zero sense.
Almost all the -1/-1 counter cards are spiking because of The Command Zone. They played a Hapatra deck on Game Knights and then subsequently did an episode deck tech on it. Several similar cards have spiked 500-1000% as a result.
Thanks for the info. And sorry for late reply.
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I approve of this trend. Lower prices mean more people can theoretically afford to play which is good in the long term.
The downward trending prices are probably a combination of a people gravitating towards cheaper decks whenever possible, people not wanting to invest heavily in new decks, an unknown feel to the field, and a general uncertainty with regards to investing in staples for the most ban-happy format in Magic.
UR ....... WUBR ........... WB ............. RGW ........ UBR ....... WUB .... BGU
Spells / Blink & Combo / Token Grind / Dino Tribal / Draw Cards / Zombies / Reanimate
I'm guessing the increased speed at which they churn out new sets is good for hasbro/wizards; it probably drops profits per set but overall yearly profits is generally maximized with this strategy.
The data you presented is incomplete. On the date you pulled, the modern staples section contained 236 cards; the current version is only 61. The new list is missing entire decks like Tron, Burn, and Scapeshift/Titan.
Please stop lacing non-Twin related topics with such thinly veiled bias. There's no more fear or uncertainty about Modern as there is about any other format, or the game as a whole.
If prices are down and if they stay down, it's simply because the reprinting effect has stopped bringing players into Modern from other formats and Masters sets are basically just mini Chronicles sets now.
Standard: lol no
Modern: BG/x, UR/x, Burn, Merfolk, Zoo, Storm
Legacy: Shardless BUG, Delver (BUG, RUG, Grixis), Landstill, Depths Combo, Merfolk
Vintage: Dark Times, BUG Fish, Merfolk
EDH: Teysa, Orzhov Scion / Krenko, Mob Boss / Stonebrow, Krosan Hero
It's not just that, there was also Eldrazi Winter, multiple other bans, and mostly a chaotic swirling meta dominated by fast/linear decks or big mana, several of which also received bans. Modern has been the Wild West ever since the floodgates opened and dumping your hand with no fear of repercussions became the best winning strategy. Perhaps that means people are more likely to build cheap, random decks than try to spend thousands on high end established decks. A random cheap 80/20 "Gotcha!" deck is likely going to be more fun for all the random new Modern players than buying a $1,000 deck that may or may not eat a ban at any time. For whatever reason, people are not buying like they used to. That's my thoughts on why.
UR ....... WUBR ........... WB ............. RGW ........ UBR ....... WUB .... BGU
Spells / Blink & Combo / Token Grind / Dino Tribal / Draw Cards / Zombies / Reanimate
I agree 100%. This is only a good sign for the format.
Yeah, I don't mind the reprints, but the bannings have got to stop. I've lost the use of so many cards I love thanks to overzealous banhammer at WotC.
I don't know about Pauper, but Legacy has taken a double hit from Dual Lands getting too expensive and SCG dropping their tournament support for that format.
How is that total calculated? Sum of the individual price of every card? I don't see how that's a good indicator of the cost of the format. You need weights. The best weight I can think of is the average number of copies of every card in the decks that have at least one copy. So Tarmogoyf would be x4, Liliana like x3, Karn x3.2 or some such...
I have only seen "good" cards going up month after month and some barely going down. Could be true that overal it's a ton down since last year, but that raises a big alarm for me. Three cards that are one-offs going from $4 a piece to $1 really don't matter. A 4-off that goes up from $20 a piece to $30 (or worse) hurts the format.
Yes definitely.
RGTron
UGInfect
URStorm
WUBRAd Nauseam
BRGrishoalbrand
URGScapeshift
WBGAbzan Company
WUBRGAmulet Titan
BRGLiving End
WGBogles
Standard: lol no
Modern: BG/x, UR/x, Burn, Merfolk, Zoo, Storm
Legacy: Shardless BUG, Delver (BUG, RUG, Grixis), Landstill, Depths Combo, Merfolk
Vintage: Dark Times, BUG Fish, Merfolk
EDH: Teysa, Orzhov Scion / Krenko, Mob Boss / Stonebrow, Krosan Hero
We used to hold the belief that decks need to break specific and predictable guidelines in order to get banned (Turn 4 rule, oppressive meta share, logistics, etc.). Ever since the Twin ban, that logic has been thrown out the window. With the recent bannings of Probe and GGT, we have even less to go on in terms of predicting bans (especially when combined with the salt-the-earth bannings of Copter/Reflector Mage/Emrakul in Standard). This seems to combine with the ramped up reprint policies to create a perfect storm of confidence reduction for investing in expensive cards and decks. There's just so little of an upside to buying expensive cards unless you absolutely have to have them for a deck you absolutely have to play. I feel the loss of player confidence is explained easily: 1) the risk of ban is both relatively high and relatively unpredictable, 2) the "risk" of reprints is at an all time high, and 3) cheap, budget decks that don't require expensive staples are often completely serviceable for local FNM events. All of these come together to point to a decrease in overall demand of expensive staples.
Similar to other posters here, I have cut back significantly on buying anything. My Delver deck actually got foiled out over 2016 because I had started the process originally with Twin. I figured because Delver was so firmly Tier 2, it would never eat a ban and completed foiling it (minus Scalding Tarns until MM17 released) just before Probe was banned. Now that Delver is more or less unplayable at a competitive level, I had to spend a couple bucks for Death's Shadows, Street Wraiths, and stare at a binder full of wasted money. But I have no intention of buying anything else until DS is banned and I have to start over yet again. No need to risk throwing money at cards and decks and foils anymore. I know I can't be the only one to feel this way. My confidence in spending money on this game has taken several massive hits recently.
That being said, if someone so desires to buy into the format, lower prices are only a good thing.
UR ....... WUBR ........... WB ............. RGW ........ UBR ....... WUB .... BGU
Spells / Blink & Combo / Token Grind / Dino Tribal / Draw Cards / Zombies / Reanimate
See, of all the decks I would think would be great to foil out, Delver would be way up near the top, because for some changes that shouldn't be too bad if you can already afford foil Tarns, you have a top Legacy deck
Standard: lol no
Modern: BG/x, UR/x, Burn, Merfolk, Zoo, Storm
Legacy: Shardless BUG, Delver (BUG, RUG, Grixis), Landstill, Depths Combo, Merfolk
Vintage: Dark Times, BUG Fish, Merfolk
EDH: Teysa, Orzhov Scion / Krenko, Mob Boss / Stonebrow, Krosan Hero
There was nearly universal consensus was around Become Immense and "Something out of Dredge," with most people predicting Amalgam or Cathartic Reunion. Probe felt fairly random and arbitrary, in addition to not being predicted at all. It also hurt the best URx deck at the time (Delver). As for Twin, there are thousands of words written by several authors about how it does not follow the pattern of any previous ban except for one, small, specific criteria, which mostly became irrelevant with the removal of the Modern PT. It was a surprise and shock to most of the community, and was mostly justified retroactively. But if you want to complain about this, do it in the proper thread. This is about prices. If you feel my analysis for why the price trends are what they are is incorrect, then provide a counterpoint with supporting evidence. "Prices have nothing to do with player confidence" isn't exactly a convincing stance on its own.
UR ....... WUBR ........... WB ............. RGW ........ UBR ....... WUB .... BGU
Spells / Blink & Combo / Token Grind / Dino Tribal / Draw Cards / Zombies / Reanimate
That was one of the reasons I could justify it. But there are plenty of random cards that don't fit anywhere else that are just collecting dust in a binder these days. If I wanted to foil out my current deck (Grixis Shadow), I would need to spend hundreds on Thoughtseizes, IOKs, DSs, Wraiths, Denials, and silly things like Liliana, the Last Hope. Waste of time and money because confidence in retained value isn't there anymore. Foil fetchlands are about the only thing I can justify these days.
UR ....... WUBR ........... WB ............. RGW ........ UBR ....... WUB .... BGU
Spells / Blink & Combo / Token Grind / Dino Tribal / Draw Cards / Zombies / Reanimate
Regardless, don't just paraphrase the conclusion when anybody reading the posts can well see the argument leading to that conclusion.
Standard: lol no
Modern: BG/x, UR/x, Burn, Merfolk, Zoo, Storm
Legacy: Shardless BUG, Delver (BUG, RUG, Grixis), Landstill, Depths Combo, Merfolk
Vintage: Dark Times, BUG Fish, Merfolk
EDH: Teysa, Orzhov Scion / Krenko, Mob Boss / Stonebrow, Krosan Hero
RGTron
UGInfect
URStorm
WUBRAd Nauseam
BRGrishoalbrand
URGScapeshift
WBGAbzan Company
WUBRGAmulet Titan
BRGLiving End
WGBogles
I think one of the other things about the current prices is that we're currently in the MOST balanced Modern meta game the format has ever seen. As such the syndrome of buying into the "best deck" is being diluted and driving prices down as more and more strategies/decks are viable. That and reprints without the added format growth.
Standard: lol no
Modern: BG/x, UR/x, Burn, Merfolk, Zoo, Storm
Legacy: Shardless BUG, Delver (BUG, RUG, Grixis), Landstill, Depths Combo, Merfolk
Vintage: Dark Times, BUG Fish, Merfolk
EDH: Teysa, Orzhov Scion / Krenko, Mob Boss / Stonebrow, Krosan Hero
What in the name of Heliod is going on with Dusk Urchins?
Some of these spikes make about zero sense.
STOP using "dude/bro" as a pejorative or insult. Grow up.
Margaret Thatcher: “The problem with socialism is that you eventually run out of other people's money.”
Benjamin Franklin: "Those who would give up essential Liberty, to purchase a little temporary Safety, deserve neither Liberty nor Safety."
Martin Luther King Jr.: "I have a dream that my four little children will one day live in a nation where they will not be judged by the color of their skin, but by the content of their character."
Then don't bring it up next time.
Almost all the -1/-1 counter cards are spiking because of The Command Zone. They played a Hapatra deck on Game Knights and then subsequently did an episode deck tech on it. Several similar cards have spiked 500-1000% as a result.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vqalJabqJsA&t
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zpqi4lpvaTY
UR ....... WUBR ........... WB ............. RGW ........ UBR ....... WUB .... BGU
Spells / Blink & Combo / Token Grind / Dino Tribal / Draw Cards / Zombies / Reanimate
Have been wanting to get one for sideboard purposes, but it's not urgent.. I can wait for rotation if her price would drop there.
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Want to play a UW control deck in modern, but don't have jace or snaps?
Please come visit us at the Emeria Titan control thread