Good writeup on Reddit about expected price trends, for those asking.
#1, never believe anything you read on Reddit. In fact, better to just never visit that ridiculous site in the first place.
#2, They're basing their assumptions on MM15's trends. However, MM17 has a much greater density of sought-after staples than MM15. While in Standard sets this usually means it spreads the costs around and Mythics and Rares stay cheaper, in limited print runs sets this means the set gets opened sooner. It also means people who hadn't bought into Modern yet will view this as their opportunity to do so.
MM13's prices began climbing 2 weeks after release.
MM15's prices began climbing 6-8 weeks after release, and in some cases later.
MM17 could well be somewhere in the middle, and I continue to think 3-4 weeks out is the sweet spot this time around.
Regarding fetches in particular, remember that not only do lands most often get gobbled up in full playsets, but they actually often get gobbled up in full playsets of the full cycle. Expect people to be buying 20 of these, not just 1 or 4. That shrinks supply much more than many people are giving it credit for.
Modern GB Rock U Flooding Merfolk RUG Delver Midrange WU Monks UW Tempo Geist GW Bogle GW Liege UR Tron B Vampires
Affinity Legacy
Fish
Goblins
Burn
Reanimator
Dredge
Affinity EDH W Akroma GBW Ghave BRU Thrax GR Ruric I advocate for the elimination of the combo archetype in Modern. I believe it is degenerate and unfun by its very nature and will always limit design space and cause unnecessary bans.
looks like I am not the only one to notice the average is sub-par on value. One of my drafts had one damnation and one fetchland in the whole box. The whole box totalled out to maybe 75 bucks. Seeing a LOT of that. Not many fetches, next to no lilies or goyfs. The value for those opening has been abysmal, with the average value maybe $150 or so if you dont plan on trying to sell uncommons for pennies each.
There certainly is less of a flood than I expected, nobody wants to let staples go for these prices except those who were trying to make a profit and need to dump stuff, which generally goes straight to the shops instead of the trade/ebay market.
I don't think this comes as much of a surprise. Boosters are still $10 and boxes $240 MSRP, so as is with most sets, you're certainly not guaranteed to see a net profit after opening a box. The one thing that I have found surprising is the distribution of fetch lands; I knew the average/box would be less than Khans considering there being 24 packs per box, but there have been some flukey box openings with anywhere from zero-five fetches. On average, a Khans box seemed to almost always net at least two fetches and I never opened one with less than three (anecdotal, I know). I was hesitant to open one of my MM17 boxes for this reason, but I did anyway and pretty much broke even on the cost of the box (~$185) based on prices as of March 21.
The box would've been a real clunker without two pulls in particular, scalding tarn & tarmogoyf. I don't open sealed product aside from masters sets, and I've never cracked a Goyf, so that was pretty darn exciting. However, the rest of the box was pretty sub-par and contained no other fetches as well as no good uncommons (=/= IOK, MoOK, SV, PtE). In a true display of bizarre RNG, I did manage to pull 3 foil rares (cyclonic rift, primal command, Deadeye Navigator) and 4 mythics (Goyf, Domri, Past in Flames, and ******* Bonfire of the Damned). Sadly, no Blood Moon or Damnation, but I'm planning on scooping up singles of those anyhow; I hate playing with my Moons from The Dark and they're very reasonably priced right now. The cheapest I've found them for has been $17, so I'll bite and pick them up when/if I find them at $15/ea. Anyway, I was anticipating to break even on the box, so I can't really complain; I was just hoping that more fetches would account for that figure. I'm going to sit on the other two boxes I have for now and give the old wallet a break until May/June-ish when I start to pick up sets of fetches, Goblin Guides, Blood Moon, and Snaps. The only exception has been IOK, which I have and will continue to pick up for $2/ea shipped whenever I find them at that price. Similar to when Conspiracy 2 released, I think folks are overestimating the supply of IoKs that will come out of MM17, so it might be one of those cards that has already bottomed out; I can't see them dipping much below $2, but who knows.
Good writeup on Reddit about expected price trends, for those asking.
#1, never believe anything you read on Reddit. In fact, better to just never visit that ridiculous site in the first place.
#2, They're basing their assumptions on MM15's trends. However, MM17 has a much greater density of sought-after staples than MM15. While in Standard sets this usually means it spreads the costs around and Mythics and Rares stay cheaper, in limited print runs sets this means the set gets opened sooner. It also means people who hadn't bought into Modern yet will view this as their opportunity to do so.
MM13's prices began climbing 2 weeks after release.
MM15's prices began climbing 6-8 weeks after release, and in some cases later.
MM17 could well be somewhere in the middle, and I continue to think 3-4 weeks out is the sweet spot this time around.
Regarding fetches in particular, remember that not only do lands most often get gobbled up in full playsets, but they actually often get gobbled up in full playsets of the full cycle. Expect people to be buying 20 of these, not just 1 or 4. That shrinks supply much more than many people are giving it credit for.
Not at the cost they are set at. In the case of original fetches people are more likely going to just buy the ones they need than try to pay for a full set of all the lands simply due to the fact they cost way more than other dual lands. Again, the guys who buy heavily into high cost playables in modern is fairly limited and probably only a sliver of the entire player base. Casual and semi-competitive players will probably try to pick up missing pieces for decks they were scrapping together, etc.
Also, given how prolific the rumors were of a larger print run than MM2015 I'm inclined to believe in a second wave. I'll also be incredibly surprised if prices on cards start rocketing back up 3-4 weeks after release. This market is not the same one that MM2013 and MM2015 launched into.
Private Mod Note
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Rollback Post to RevisionRollBack
1. (Ravnica Allegiance): You can't keep a good esper control deck down... Or Wilderness Reclamation... or Gates...
2. (War of the Spark): Guys, I know what we need! We need a cycle of really idiotic flavor text victory cards! Jace's Triumph...
3. (War of the Spark): Lets make the format with control have even more control!
I actually wonder about this. I mean, when M13 was printed, standard was doing fine to very good. Now, with standard stinking it up, there may be more folks in the market for modern staples which could lead to some volatility. A second wave, if there is one, may be necessary to cover demand.
Private Mod Note
():
Rollback Post to RevisionRollBack
Modern GB Rock U Flooding Merfolk RUG Delver Midrange WU Monks UW Tempo Geist GW Bogle GW Liege UR Tron B Vampires
Affinity Legacy
Fish
Goblins
Burn
Reanimator
Dredge
Affinity EDH W Akroma GBW Ghave BRU Thrax GR Ruric I advocate for the elimination of the combo archetype in Modern. I believe it is degenerate and unfun by its very nature and will always limit design space and cause unnecessary bans.
I actually wonder about this. I mean, when M13 was printed, standard was doing fine to very good. Now, with standard stinking it up, there may be more folks in the market for modern staples which could lead to some volatility. A second wave, if there is one, may be necessary to cover demand.
I have talked to a lot of people, read a lot of articles, forums. The general consensus is there will be another run form the player base side. Then I talk to multiple LGS owners and they have heard nothing about the possibility of a second run. (A few LGS owners admitted they had been told more MM2015 was going to be printed in the future, they just were not told when.)
Personally I think because Standard is in a bad place right now, Wotc wants players to concentrate on Standard, not Modern. The next set comes out in a month. I dont think Wotc is going to do a second run to interfere with the next Standard set. I do think, maybe, Wotc will throw a few boxes at LGS around the holidays. (Thanksgiving/Christmas) But a full second run? I doubt it.
Pain's Reward spike? Not sure what deck it goes in. 3 mana seems like a lot for Death's Shadow Jund and isn't Painful Truths more reliable for 3-color black decks like Jund and Ad Nauseam?
Private Mod Note
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Rollback Post to RevisionRollBack
Modern RGTron UGInfect URStorm WUBRAd Nauseam BRGrishoalbrand URGScapeshift WBGAbzan Company WUBRGAmulet Titan BRGLiving End WGBogles
Pain's Reward spike? Not sure what deck it goes in. 3 mana seems like a lot for Death's Shadow Jund and isn't Painful Truths more reliable for 3-color black decks like Jund and Ad Nauseam?
TMS posted a budget life drain deck featuring the card. That's usually a recipe for automatic price spike.
Good writeup on Reddit about expected price trends, for those asking.
#1, never believe anything you read on Reddit. In fact, better to just never visit that ridiculous site in the first place.
#2, They're basing their assumptions on MM15's trends. However, MM17 has a much greater density of sought-after staples than MM15. While in Standard sets this usually means it spreads the costs around and Mythics and Rares stay cheaper, in limited print runs sets this means the set gets opened sooner. It also means people who hadn't bought into Modern yet will view this as their opportunity to do so.
MM13's prices began climbing 2 weeks after release.
MM15's prices began climbing 6-8 weeks after release, and in some cases later.
MM17 could well be somewhere in the middle, and I continue to think 3-4 weeks out is the sweet spot this time around.
Regarding fetches in particular, remember that not only do lands most often get gobbled up in full playsets, but they actually often get gobbled up in full playsets of the full cycle. Expect people to be buying 20 of these, not just 1 or 4. That shrinks supply much more than many people are giving it credit for.
That is very much appreciated. I've used the last of current spare cash buying 2 Collective Brutality from SCG instead o f buying anything from MM3. The wallet shall now take a rest. 3-4 weeks from now... depending on how much cash I have.. will buy a set of verdants or a set of guides.
Honestly, if I were WotC, I would have to think awful hard about printing MM in higher numbers. Especially right now. Modern is s limited pool, standard is infinite, or nearly so. Personally, I'd want folks looking at standard. They need to get that back on track. Modern should be a small concern by comparison.
Private Mod Note
():
Rollback Post to RevisionRollBack
Modern GB Rock U Flooding Merfolk RUG Delver Midrange WU Monks UW Tempo Geist GW Bogle GW Liege UR Tron B Vampires
Affinity Legacy
Fish
Goblins
Burn
Reanimator
Dredge
Affinity EDH W Akroma GBW Ghave BRU Thrax GR Ruric I advocate for the elimination of the combo archetype in Modern. I believe it is degenerate and unfun by its very nature and will always limit design space and cause unnecessary bans.
Prices seem to be rising a little on all of the MM17 singles, is that just the post release buying frenzy or are we already past our floor? The only reason I ask is I'm seeing rises on cards that I would've thought were the "lower priority rares and mythics" Like the miracle cards, Voice, and to a lesser extent Snapcaster.
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My Decks:
UG Merfolk RG 8-Whack BWG Abzan midrange GRB Living End UWB Spirit Control
GU Kruphix's "Hug Assassin" RW Kalemne's "Play Fatties and Hope for the Best!" BUGW Atraxa's "All counters, all the time"
People are realizing that 1: this is not massively printed. 2: box openers are keeping the staples they got, and expanding into a dew deck, rather than trading into a deck. Put it this way: If you are getting into modern, you buy singles. If you are already into modern, you already know what new deck you want to build, or maybe you buy a box, see what you get, and move into a new deck that way.
I cannot stress enough, and the above poster re-iterated, box buyers do not increase the available cards in the pool. They actually become singles buyers themselves, finishing out playsets, be it guide, fetches, mythics, whatever.
Once you have a Guide, the hook is set, and oddly enough, the mentality becomes 'I got a guide!I can build burn now!' or 'I got a Death's Shadow, I want to make that deck now!' Yes, the logic is weird, but it happens.
And yeah, people buying 2 more fetches because they got 2, or those in the market for the entire cycle. I pulled 34 fetches. 0 are for trade. The way I see it, I need 6 more.
Prices seem to be rising a little on all of the MM17 singles, is that just the post release buying frenzy or are we already past our floor? The only reason I ask is I'm seeing rises on cards that I would've thought were the "lower priority rares and mythics" Like the miracle cards, Voice, and to a lesser extent Snapcaster.
The set has been out for a whopping 5 days....
Johnny has been waiting until MM17 before he buys the missing pieces he needs to complete his Jund Deck; he wants to play Modern and isn't caught up in price fluctuations, so he jumps on those Goys, Lillys, fetches, etc as soon as possible. Timmy is a novice speculator and he's buying up cards left and right thinking they've hit their all-time lows. Just because the information comes from a site entitled "MTGstocks", doesn't mean card values fluctuate like that of actual stock being traded; while more players are undoubtedly more aware of secondary market trends now more than ever, the vast majority are still just players of the game who want to complete their Modern, Legacy, and EDH decks so they can start playing. Prices will drop. Fetches may be more coveted, but in general, the majority of cards reprinted in this set are still weeks away from bottoming out. The golden rule still applies: Do you need X card in order to play X deck? If the answer is yes, then buy that card now and play. You might be able to get it for a fraction of the cost sometime down the road, but pretty much every reprint is cheaper now than it was a month ago, so get what you need and play the game. I'll start speccing on singles sometime in the near future, but I'm still picking up cards here and there that I need for various EDH builds and Modern Jund.
Yeah its not looking good for fetches to go much lower, I'm filling out the play sets I wanted most (Misty/Tarn) but since I dont play Mardu colours I may just pass on those.
I actually wonder about this. I mean, when M13 was printed, standard was doing fine to very good. Now, with standard stinking it up, there may be more folks in the market for modern staples which could lead to some volatility. A second wave, if there is one, may be necessary to cover demand.
I have talked to a lot of people, read a lot of articles, forums. The general consensus is there will be another run form the player base side. Then I talk to multiple LGS owners and they have heard nothing about the possibility of a second run. (A few LGS owners admitted they had been told more MM2015 was going to be printed in the future, they just were not told when.)
Personally I think because Standard is in a bad place right now, Wotc wants players to concentrate on Standard, not Modern. The next set comes out in a month. I dont think Wotc is going to do a second run to interfere with the next Standard set. I do think, maybe, Wotc will throw a few boxes at LGS around the holidays. (Thanksgiving/Christmas) But a full second run? I doubt it.
Given what you wrote I did stop by my LGS and your take is matching up. I think it will be a bit disastrous if wizards doesn't do another wave since standard is in a very bad place and Amonket likely wont save it. The soonest we will see stronger answers is after Gideon and the rest of BFZ rotates out along with Shadows over Innistrad and by that point who knows what kind of Frankenstein's monster standard will be with the bannings. Also, a weak standard doesn't mean more people are going to play modern either. This later part isn't aimed at you Bophecus, but I know some other folks have mentioned in the thread they believe modern will get more players because of the weak standard. What really is happening is standard players going off and playing other games, from direct competition like Force of Will (it's having a resurgence) and Hearthstone, to indirect competition from video games like Nier Automata, Zelda Breath of the Wild, and Horizon: Zero Dawn, let alone the new Resident Evil Biohazard.
Hate to say this, but Wizards picked the worst time on earth to have a weak standard season just because everywhere else good times are rolling. One mans downfall is another mans gain, I suppose.
Private Mod Note
():
Rollback Post to RevisionRollBack
1. (Ravnica Allegiance): You can't keep a good esper control deck down... Or Wilderness Reclamation... or Gates...
2. (War of the Spark): Guys, I know what we need! We need a cycle of really idiotic flavor text victory cards! Jace's Triumph...
3. (War of the Spark): Lets make the format with control have even more control!
I actually wonder about this. I mean, when M13 was printed, standard was doing fine to very good. Now, with standard stinking it up, there may be more folks in the market for modern staples which could lead to some volatility. A second wave, if there is one, may be necessary to cover demand.
I have talked to a lot of people, read a lot of articles, forums. The general consensus is there will be another run form the player base side. Then I talk to multiple LGS owners and they have heard nothing about the possibility of a second run. (A few LGS owners admitted they had been told more MM2015 was going to be printed in the future, they just were not told when.)
Personally I think because Standard is in a bad place right now, Wotc wants players to concentrate on Standard, not Modern. The next set comes out in a month. I dont think Wotc is going to do a second run to interfere with the next Standard set. I do think, maybe, Wotc will throw a few boxes at LGS around the holidays. (Thanksgiving/Christmas) But a full second run? I doubt it.
Given what you wrote I did stop by my LGS and your take is matching up. I think it will be a bit disastrous if wizards doesn't do another wave since standard is in a very bad place and Amonket likely wont save it. The soonest we will see stronger answers is after Gideon and the rest of BFZ rotates out along with Shadows over Innistrad and by that point who knows what kind of Frankenstein's monster standard will be with the bannings. Also, a weak standard doesn't mean more people are going to play modern either. This later part isn't aimed at you Bophecus, but I know some other folks have mentioned in the thread they believe modern will get more players because of the weak standard. What really is happening is standard players going off and playing other games, from direct competition like Force of Will (it's having a resurgence) and Hearthstone, to indirect competition from video games like Nier Automata, Zelda Breath of the Wild, and Horizon: Zero Dawn, let alone the new Resident Evil Biohazard.
Hate to say this, but Wizards picked the worst time on earth to have a weak standard season just because everywhere else good times are rolling. One mans downfall is another mans gain, I suppose.
Hobbies and gaming are not the typical zero-sum-game scenarios that your post suggests. We know for a fact that a large number of people leaving standard actually are migrating to modern. It's evident in LGSs across the world and from larger events' attendance numbers. It's also fairly meaningless that there are other games out there. While there are other collectible TCGs, nothing is really in direct competition with Magic. And for most players, a diversion to other games doesn't preclude a return to Magic.
I actually wonder about this. I mean, when M13 was printed, standard was doing fine to very good. Now, with standard stinking it up, there may be more folks in the market for modern staples which could lead to some volatility. A second wave, if there is one, may be necessary to cover demand.
I have talked to a lot of people, read a lot of articles, forums. The general consensus is there will be another run form the player base side. Then I talk to multiple LGS owners and they have heard nothing about the possibility of a second run. (A few LGS owners admitted they had been told more MM2015 was going to be printed in the future, they just were not told when.)
Personally I think because Standard is in a bad place right now, Wotc wants players to concentrate on Standard, not Modern. The next set comes out in a month. I dont think Wotc is going to do a second run to interfere with the next Standard set. I do think, maybe, Wotc will throw a few boxes at LGS around the holidays. (Thanksgiving/Christmas) But a full second run? I doubt it.
Given what you wrote I did stop by my LGS and your take is matching up. I think it will be a bit disastrous if wizards doesn't do another wave since standard is in a very bad place and Amonket likely wont save it. The soonest we will see stronger answers is after Gideon and the rest of BFZ rotates out along with Shadows over Innistrad and by that point who knows what kind of Frankenstein's monster standard will be with the bannings. Also, a weak standard doesn't mean more people are going to play modern either. This later part isn't aimed at you Bophecus, but I know some other folks have mentioned in the thread they believe modern will get more players because of the weak standard. What really is happening is standard players going off and playing other games, from direct competition like Force of Will (it's having a resurgence) and Hearthstone, to indirect competition from video games like Nier Automata, Zelda Breath of the Wild, and Horizon: Zero Dawn, let alone the new Resident Evil Biohazard.
Hate to say this, but Wizards picked the worst time on earth to have a weak standard season just because everywhere else good times are rolling. One mans downfall is another mans gain, I suppose.
Hobbies and gaming are not the typical zero-sum-game scenarios that your post suggests. We know for a fact that a large number of people leaving standard actually are migrating to modern. It's evident in LGSs across the world and from larger events' attendance numbers. It's also fairly meaningless that there are other games out there. While there are other collectible TCGs, nothing is really in direct competition with Magic. And for most players, a diversion to other games doesn't preclude a return to Magic.
I actually wonder about this. I mean, when M13 was printed, standard was doing fine to very good. Now, with standard stinking it up, there may be more folks in the market for modern staples which could lead to some volatility. A second wave, if there is one, may be necessary to cover demand.
I have talked to a lot of people, read a lot of articles, forums. The general consensus is there will be another run form the player base side. Then I talk to multiple LGS owners and they have heard nothing about the possibility of a second run. (A few LGS owners admitted they had been told more MM2015 was going to be printed in the future, they just were not told when.)
Personally I think because Standard is in a bad place right now, Wotc wants players to concentrate on Standard, not Modern. The next set comes out in a month. I dont think Wotc is going to do a second run to interfere with the next Standard set. I do think, maybe, Wotc will throw a few boxes at LGS around the holidays. (Thanksgiving/Christmas) But a full second run? I doubt it.
Given what you wrote I did stop by my LGS and your take is matching up. I think it will be a bit disastrous if wizards doesn't do another wave since standard is in a very bad place and Amonket likely wont save it. The soonest we will see stronger answers is after Gideon and the rest of BFZ rotates out along with Shadows over Innistrad and by that point who knows what kind of Frankenstein's monster standard will be with the bannings. Also, a weak standard doesn't mean more people are going to play modern either. This later part isn't aimed at you Bophecus, but I know some other folks have mentioned in the thread they believe modern will get more players because of the weak standard. What really is happening is standard players going off and playing other games, from direct competition like Force of Will (it's having a resurgence) and Hearthstone, to indirect competition from video games like Nier Automata, Zelda Breath of the Wild, and Horizon: Zero Dawn, let alone the new Resident Evil Biohazard.
Hate to say this, but Wizards picked the worst time on earth to have a weak standard season just because everywhere else good times are rolling. One mans downfall is another mans gain, I suppose.
Hobbies and gaming are not the typical zero-sum-game scenarios that your post suggests. We know for a fact that a large number of people leaving standard actually are migrating to modern. It's evident in LGSs across the world and from larger events' attendance numbers. It's also fairly meaningless that there are other games out there. While there are other collectible TCGs, nothing is really in direct competition with Magic. And for most players, a diversion to other games doesn't preclude a return to Magic.
I'm not trying to suggest it is a zero sum game and if anyone got that impression than I apologize for not being clear on that notion. However, other games do take money away from Wizards pockets and do impact the demand on cards.
Private Mod Note
():
Rollback Post to RevisionRollBack
1. (Ravnica Allegiance): You can't keep a good esper control deck down... Or Wilderness Reclamation... or Gates...
2. (War of the Spark): Guys, I know what we need! We need a cycle of really idiotic flavor text victory cards! Jace's Triumph...
3. (War of the Spark): Lets make the format with control have even more control!
I actually wonder about this. I mean, when M13 was printed, standard was doing fine to very good. Now, with standard stinking it up, there may be more folks in the market for modern staples which could lead to some volatility. A second wave, if there is one, may be necessary to cover demand.
I have talked to a lot of people, read a lot of articles, forums. The general consensus is there will be another run form the player base side. Then I talk to multiple LGS owners and they have heard nothing about the possibility of a second run. (A few LGS owners admitted they had been told more MM2015 was going to be printed in the future, they just were not told when.)
Personally I think because Standard is in a bad place right now, Wotc wants players to concentrate on Standard, not Modern. The next set comes out in a month. I dont think Wotc is going to do a second run to interfere with the next Standard set. I do think, maybe, Wotc will throw a few boxes at LGS around the holidays. (Thanksgiving/Christmas) But a full second run? I doubt it.
Given what you wrote I did stop by my LGS and your take is matching up. I think it will be a bit disastrous if wizards doesn't do another wave since standard is in a very bad place and Amonket likely wont save it. The soonest we will see stronger answers is after Gideon and the rest of BFZ rotates out along with Shadows over Innistrad and by that point who knows what kind of Frankenstein's monster standard will be with the bannings. Also, a weak standard doesn't mean more people are going to play modern either. This later part isn't aimed at you Bophecus, but I know some other folks have mentioned in the thread they believe modern will get more players because of the weak standard. What really is happening is standard players going off and playing other games, from direct competition like Force of Will (it's having a resurgence) and Hearthstone, to indirect competition from video games like Nier Automata, Zelda Breath of the Wild, and Horizon: Zero Dawn, let alone the new Resident Evil Biohazard.
Hate to say this, but Wizards picked the worst time on earth to have a weak standard season just because everywhere else good times are rolling. One mans downfall is another mans gain, I suppose.
Hobbies and gaming are not the typical zero-sum-game scenarios that your post suggests. We know for a fact that a large number of people leaving standard actually are migrating to modern. It's evident in LGSs across the world and from larger events' attendance numbers. It's also fairly meaningless that there are other games out there. While there are other collectible TCGs, nothing is really in direct competition with Magic. And for most players, a diversion to other games doesn't preclude a return to Magic.
I'm not trying to suggest it is a zero sum game and if anyone got that impression than I apologize for not being clear on that notion. However, other games do take money away from Wizards pockets and do impact the demand on cards.
"One man's downfall is another man's gain" highly suggests it. But you'd be very hard-pressed to prove that WOTC/MTG is experiencing a downfall right now, even with the poor standard and online environments.
I'm not trying to bash on MtG, but if someone doesn't think Magic is going through a downfall right now from players quitting the game they have to be living under a rock. However, the segment that this is happening with is only a part of the entire player base. Casual players are largely unaffected by a poor standard except through the bad PR it generates, and modern players for the most part don't care about standard outside of how the cards from it fit into modern.
Modern prices do get impacted by the health of standard indirectly, though. Standard drives interest in Magic and the more interest in Magic the more opportunities there are for players to get introduced to alternative formats like Modern. A weak standard drops interest in the game as a whole, which leaves the market in the hands of players who are mostly already established in it.
1. (Ravnica Allegiance): You can't keep a good esper control deck down... Or Wilderness Reclamation... or Gates...
2. (War of the Spark): Guys, I know what we need! We need a cycle of really idiotic flavor text victory cards! Jace's Triumph...
3. (War of the Spark): Lets make the format with control have even more control!
Given what you wrote I did stop by my LGS and your take is matching up. I think it will be a bit disastrous if wizards doesn't do another wave since standard is in a very bad place and Amonket likely wont save it. The soonest we will see stronger answers is after Gideon and the rest of BFZ rotates out along with Shadows over Innistrad and by that point who knows what kind of Frankenstein's monster standard will be with the bannings. Also, a weak standard doesn't mean more people are going to play modern either. This later part isn't aimed at you Bophecus, but I know some other folks have mentioned in the thread they believe modern will get more players because of the weak standard. What really is happening is standard players going off and playing other games, from direct competition like Force of Will (it's having a resurgence) and Hearthstone, to indirect competition from video games like Nier Automata, Zelda Breath of the Wild, and Horizon: Zero Dawn, let alone the new Resident Evil Biohazard.
Hate to say this, but Wizards picked the worst time on earth to have a weak standard season just because everywhere else good times are rolling. One mans downfall is another mans gain, I suppose.
While I do agree this is a particularly hard time for WotC, a second print run doesn't actually do much to salvage the problem, except temporarily hold profit margins. I suspect Modern's reduced tournament support had part of its reason from Standard tripping down - they basically realized they screwed it up, so they had to reduce all their "internal competition" (sure, they can't deal with outside ones like other games you said, but that doesn't mean they shouldn't do what they have control over).
They definitely aren't going to shoot themselves in the foot by increasing Modern tournament support at this point because that is themselves actively killing Standard, but the problem with a second print run is that it gives people the impression they are going to support the format tournament-wise more, when they are trying to achieve the opposite. That being said, it isn't completely impossible either, provided they just keep it as silent as possible (after all MM3's overall marketing is relatively quiet and even the increased print runs are rumors from our POV, regardless of whether it is true or not, indicates they are trying to be very, very subtle about the format and its support now).
Alternatively they could just be extremely vocal about reducing tournament support (and admitting that a second print run is just to hold profit margins and also that the main reason for everything is simple to save Standard and since that needs time, they need to slow down Modern's actual tournament activity). It wouldn't be a bad thing for us either, provided they promise to bring it back up when Standard gets back on track, and meanwhile the lowered demand combined with the increased supply would actually mean price drops across the board, something the format needed for the longest time. The only issue with this great solution is WotC probably has pride (or Hasbro wants them to maintain it) and we all know how restless the player base is - the vocal complaints from those who don't/refuse to understand from simply decreased tournament support will never stop ringing.
Judging from WotC typical play-it-safe actions though, I think they're just going to swallow some "losses" (it could be just decrease in rise in profits for all we know, considering there were still some minor measures like Masterpieces) until Standard tides it over its rough period. As for the Modern end, either we don't get a second print, or they'll be very silent about it.
So, some people have already noticed that prices have crept up over the past few days. My Cardmarket-insight data, of which I've been keeping track, actually shows that there is quite some decrease in stock on the most-wanted cards from MM2017, although generally not on their older counterparts from previous sets.
I assume more packs are cracked during weekends as drafts and sealed tournements are held on friday - sunday? Demand is the same all days of the week, but the supply is at it highest monday (after a weekend), hence we'll see a small increase in price during monday - friday?
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Top8 Norwegain Vintage Nationals 2003
Winner Norwegain Vintage Nationals 2006
Finalist Vintage Open at Arcon 2013
Finalist Modern Open at Arcon 2013
Winner Sweden Vintage Nationals at Eternalkungen Sweden 2013
Top8 Norwegian Legacy Nationals 2014
Winner Vintage Open at Arcon 2014
Top8 Legacy Open at Arcon 2014
Top4 Legacy Open at Arcon 2015
Winner Modern Open at Arcon 2015
Finalist Norwegian Legacy Nationals 2016
Winner Vintage Open at Arcon 2016
Trying to sell a FOIL World Breaker on ebay, among other things to raise cash for MM3 cards - some guy offered $12 Aus ($9.50)USD shipped do you think thats fair or not? ALso have a signed Demonic tutor (see attachment; Whats a fair price for these? I realise I've just asked about standard and legacy.... I hope that's not an issue, I trust the perspectives of the people here.
Trying to sell a FOIL World Breaker on ebay, among other things to raise cash for MM3 cards - some guy offered $12 Aus ($9.50)USD shipped do you think thats fair or not? ALso have a signed Demonic tutor (see attachment; Whats a fair price for these? I realise I've just asked about standard and legacy.... I hope that's not an issue, I trust the perspectives of the people here.
Just looking at tcg player and ebay recent sold listing the world breaker offer seems like a good one. Most of the recent sold listings the US range from 8.50-9.00. As for the Demonic tutor I believe there is a thread for pricing special cards somewhere else. I'll update this post if I can find it.
Value is good. But Dredgevine isn't supposed to be about value. It's supposed to be about V-8; 2000 pounds of nitro boosted war vegetables. The more velocity, the better.
Modern:
DredgeVine EDH:
Gisela, Blade of Goldnight
Anima Standard:
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#2, They're basing their assumptions on MM15's trends. However, MM17 has a much greater density of sought-after staples than MM15. While in Standard sets this usually means it spreads the costs around and Mythics and Rares stay cheaper, in limited print runs sets this means the set gets opened sooner. It also means people who hadn't bought into Modern yet will view this as their opportunity to do so.
MM13's prices began climbing 2 weeks after release.
MM15's prices began climbing 6-8 weeks after release, and in some cases later.
MM17 could well be somewhere in the middle, and I continue to think 3-4 weeks out is the sweet spot this time around.
Regarding fetches in particular, remember that not only do lands most often get gobbled up in full playsets, but they actually often get gobbled up in full playsets of the full cycle. Expect people to be buying 20 of these, not just 1 or 4. That shrinks supply much more than many people are giving it credit for.
Standard: lol no
Modern: BG/x, UR/x, Burn, Merfolk, Zoo, Storm
Legacy: Shardless BUG, Delver (BUG, RUG, Grixis), Landstill, Depths Combo, Merfolk
Vintage: Dark Times, BUG Fish, Merfolk
EDH: Teysa, Orzhov Scion / Krenko, Mob Boss / Stonebrow, Krosan Hero
GB Rock
U Flooding Merfolk
RUG Delver Midrange
WU Monks
UW Tempo Geist
GW Bogle
GW Liege
UR Tron
B Vampires
Affinity
Legacy
Fish
Goblins
Burn
Reanimator
Dredge
Affinity
EDH
W Akroma
GBW Ghave
BRU Thrax
GR Ruric
I advocate for the elimination of the combo archetype in Modern. I believe it is degenerate and unfun by its very nature and will always limit design space and cause unnecessary bans.
I don't think this comes as much of a surprise. Boosters are still $10 and boxes $240 MSRP, so as is with most sets, you're certainly not guaranteed to see a net profit after opening a box. The one thing that I have found surprising is the distribution of fetch lands; I knew the average/box would be less than Khans considering there being 24 packs per box, but there have been some flukey box openings with anywhere from zero-five fetches. On average, a Khans box seemed to almost always net at least two fetches and I never opened one with less than three (anecdotal, I know). I was hesitant to open one of my MM17 boxes for this reason, but I did anyway and pretty much broke even on the cost of the box (~$185) based on prices as of March 21.
The box would've been a real clunker without two pulls in particular, scalding tarn & tarmogoyf. I don't open sealed product aside from masters sets, and I've never cracked a Goyf, so that was pretty darn exciting. However, the rest of the box was pretty sub-par and contained no other fetches as well as no good uncommons (=/= IOK, MoOK, SV, PtE). In a true display of bizarre RNG, I did manage to pull 3 foil rares (cyclonic rift, primal command, Deadeye Navigator) and 4 mythics (Goyf, Domri, Past in Flames, and ******* Bonfire of the Damned). Sadly, no Blood Moon or Damnation, but I'm planning on scooping up singles of those anyhow; I hate playing with my Moons from The Dark and they're very reasonably priced right now. The cheapest I've found them for has been $17, so I'll bite and pick them up when/if I find them at $15/ea. Anyway, I was anticipating to break even on the box, so I can't really complain; I was just hoping that more fetches would account for that figure. I'm going to sit on the other two boxes I have for now and give the old wallet a break until May/June-ish when I start to pick up sets of fetches, Goblin Guides, Blood Moon, and Snaps. The only exception has been IOK, which I have and will continue to pick up for $2/ea shipped whenever I find them at that price. Similar to when Conspiracy 2 released, I think folks are overestimating the supply of IoKs that will come out of MM17, so it might be one of those cards that has already bottomed out; I can't see them dipping much below $2, but who knows.
Link to Discord server where anybody from MTGS can keep up with thread topics while everything is being sorted out with the new site.
Not at the cost they are set at. In the case of original fetches people are more likely going to just buy the ones they need than try to pay for a full set of all the lands simply due to the fact they cost way more than other dual lands. Again, the guys who buy heavily into high cost playables in modern is fairly limited and probably only a sliver of the entire player base. Casual and semi-competitive players will probably try to pick up missing pieces for decks they were scrapping together, etc.
Also, given how prolific the rumors were of a larger print run than MM2015 I'm inclined to believe in a second wave. I'll also be incredibly surprised if prices on cards start rocketing back up 3-4 weeks after release. This market is not the same one that MM2013 and MM2015 launched into.
1. (Ravnica Allegiance): You can't keep a good esper control deck down... Or Wilderness Reclamation... or Gates...
2. (War of the Spark): Guys, I know what we need! We need a cycle of really idiotic flavor text victory cards! Jace's Triumph...
3. (War of the Spark): Lets make the format with control have even more control!
GB Rock
U Flooding Merfolk
RUG Delver Midrange
WU Monks
UW Tempo Geist
GW Bogle
GW Liege
UR Tron
B Vampires
Affinity
Legacy
Fish
Goblins
Burn
Reanimator
Dredge
Affinity
EDH
W Akroma
GBW Ghave
BRU Thrax
GR Ruric
I advocate for the elimination of the combo archetype in Modern. I believe it is degenerate and unfun by its very nature and will always limit design space and cause unnecessary bans.
I have talked to a lot of people, read a lot of articles, forums. The general consensus is there will be another run form the player base side. Then I talk to multiple LGS owners and they have heard nothing about the possibility of a second run. (A few LGS owners admitted they had been told more MM2015 was going to be printed in the future, they just were not told when.)
Personally I think because Standard is in a bad place right now, Wotc wants players to concentrate on Standard, not Modern. The next set comes out in a month. I dont think Wotc is going to do a second run to interfere with the next Standard set. I do think, maybe, Wotc will throw a few boxes at LGS around the holidays. (Thanksgiving/Christmas) But a full second run? I doubt it.
RGTron
UGInfect
URStorm
WUBRAd Nauseam
BRGrishoalbrand
URGScapeshift
WBGAbzan Company
WUBRGAmulet Titan
BRGLiving End
WGBogles
TMS posted a budget life drain deck featuring the card. That's usually a recipe for automatic price spike.
https://youtu.be/nsvv3EWD5C4
UR ....... WUBR ........... WB ............. RGW ........ UBR ....... WUB .... BGU
Spells / Blink & Combo / Token Grind / Dino Tribal / Draw Cards / Zombies / Reanimate
That is very much appreciated. I've used the last of current spare cash buying 2 Collective Brutality from SCG instead o f buying anything from MM3. The wallet shall now take a rest. 3-4 weeks from now... depending on how much cash I have.. will buy a set of verdants or a set of guides.
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Want to play a UW control deck in modern, but don't have jace or snaps?
Please come visit us at the Emeria Titan control thread
RGTron
UGInfect
URStorm
WUBRAd Nauseam
BRGrishoalbrand
URGScapeshift
WBGAbzan Company
WUBRGAmulet Titan
BRGLiving End
WGBogles
GB Rock
U Flooding Merfolk
RUG Delver Midrange
WU Monks
UW Tempo Geist
GW Bogle
GW Liege
UR Tron
B Vampires
Affinity
Legacy
Fish
Goblins
Burn
Reanimator
Dredge
Affinity
EDH
W Akroma
GBW Ghave
BRU Thrax
GR Ruric
I advocate for the elimination of the combo archetype in Modern. I believe it is degenerate and unfun by its very nature and will always limit design space and cause unnecessary bans.
RG 8-Whack
BWG Abzan midrange
GRB Living End
UWB Spirit Control
GU Kruphix's "Hug Assassin"
RW Kalemne's "Play Fatties and Hope for the Best!"
BUGW Atraxa's "All counters, all the time"
I cannot stress enough, and the above poster re-iterated, box buyers do not increase the available cards in the pool. They actually become singles buyers themselves, finishing out playsets, be it guide, fetches, mythics, whatever.
Once you have a Guide, the hook is set, and oddly enough, the mentality becomes 'I got a guide!I can build burn now!' or 'I got a Death's Shadow, I want to make that deck now!' Yes, the logic is weird, but it happens.
And yeah, people buying 2 more fetches because they got 2, or those in the market for the entire cycle. I pulled 34 fetches. 0 are for trade. The way I see it, I need 6 more.
My advice? Get fetches now.
The set has been out for a whopping 5 days....
Johnny has been waiting until MM17 before he buys the missing pieces he needs to complete his Jund Deck; he wants to play Modern and isn't caught up in price fluctuations, so he jumps on those Goys, Lillys, fetches, etc as soon as possible. Timmy is a novice speculator and he's buying up cards left and right thinking they've hit their all-time lows. Just because the information comes from a site entitled "MTGstocks", doesn't mean card values fluctuate like that of actual stock being traded; while more players are undoubtedly more aware of secondary market trends now more than ever, the vast majority are still just players of the game who want to complete their Modern, Legacy, and EDH decks so they can start playing. Prices will drop. Fetches may be more coveted, but in general, the majority of cards reprinted in this set are still weeks away from bottoming out. The golden rule still applies: Do you need X card in order to play X deck? If the answer is yes, then buy that card now and play. You might be able to get it for a fraction of the cost sometime down the road, but pretty much every reprint is cheaper now than it was a month ago, so get what you need and play the game. I'll start speccing on singles sometime in the near future, but I'm still picking up cards here and there that I need for various EDH builds and Modern Jund.
Link to Discord server where anybody from MTGS can keep up with thread topics while everything is being sorted out with the new site.
Spirits
Given what you wrote I did stop by my LGS and your take is matching up. I think it will be a bit disastrous if wizards doesn't do another wave since standard is in a very bad place and Amonket likely wont save it. The soonest we will see stronger answers is after Gideon and the rest of BFZ rotates out along with Shadows over Innistrad and by that point who knows what kind of Frankenstein's monster standard will be with the bannings. Also, a weak standard doesn't mean more people are going to play modern either. This later part isn't aimed at you Bophecus, but I know some other folks have mentioned in the thread they believe modern will get more players because of the weak standard. What really is happening is standard players going off and playing other games, from direct competition like Force of Will (it's having a resurgence) and Hearthstone, to indirect competition from video games like Nier Automata, Zelda Breath of the Wild, and Horizon: Zero Dawn, let alone the new Resident Evil Biohazard.
Hate to say this, but Wizards picked the worst time on earth to have a weak standard season just because everywhere else good times are rolling. One mans downfall is another mans gain, I suppose.
1. (Ravnica Allegiance): You can't keep a good esper control deck down... Or Wilderness Reclamation... or Gates...
2. (War of the Spark): Guys, I know what we need! We need a cycle of really idiotic flavor text victory cards! Jace's Triumph...
3. (War of the Spark): Lets make the format with control have even more control!
Standard: lol no
Modern: BG/x, UR/x, Burn, Merfolk, Zoo, Storm
Legacy: Shardless BUG, Delver (BUG, RUG, Grixis), Landstill, Depths Combo, Merfolk
Vintage: Dark Times, BUG Fish, Merfolk
EDH: Teysa, Orzhov Scion / Krenko, Mob Boss / Stonebrow, Krosan Hero
Nailed it.
Link to Discord server where anybody from MTGS can keep up with thread topics while everything is being sorted out with the new site.
I'm not trying to suggest it is a zero sum game and if anyone got that impression than I apologize for not being clear on that notion. However, other games do take money away from Wizards pockets and do impact the demand on cards.
1. (Ravnica Allegiance): You can't keep a good esper control deck down... Or Wilderness Reclamation... or Gates...
2. (War of the Spark): Guys, I know what we need! We need a cycle of really idiotic flavor text victory cards! Jace's Triumph...
3. (War of the Spark): Lets make the format with control have even more control!
Standard: lol no
Modern: BG/x, UR/x, Burn, Merfolk, Zoo, Storm
Legacy: Shardless BUG, Delver (BUG, RUG, Grixis), Landstill, Depths Combo, Merfolk
Vintage: Dark Times, BUG Fish, Merfolk
EDH: Teysa, Orzhov Scion / Krenko, Mob Boss / Stonebrow, Krosan Hero
Modern prices do get impacted by the health of standard indirectly, though. Standard drives interest in Magic and the more interest in Magic the more opportunities there are for players to get introduced to alternative formats like Modern. A weak standard drops interest in the game as a whole, which leaves the market in the hands of players who are mostly already established in it.
1. (Ravnica Allegiance): You can't keep a good esper control deck down... Or Wilderness Reclamation... or Gates...
2. (War of the Spark): Guys, I know what we need! We need a cycle of really idiotic flavor text victory cards! Jace's Triumph...
3. (War of the Spark): Lets make the format with control have even more control!
While I do agree this is a particularly hard time for WotC, a second print run doesn't actually do much to salvage the problem, except temporarily hold profit margins. I suspect Modern's reduced tournament support had part of its reason from Standard tripping down - they basically realized they screwed it up, so they had to reduce all their "internal competition" (sure, they can't deal with outside ones like other games you said, but that doesn't mean they shouldn't do what they have control over).
They definitely aren't going to shoot themselves in the foot by increasing Modern tournament support at this point because that is themselves actively killing Standard, but the problem with a second print run is that it gives people the impression they are going to support the format tournament-wise more, when they are trying to achieve the opposite. That being said, it isn't completely impossible either, provided they just keep it as silent as possible (after all MM3's overall marketing is relatively quiet and even the increased print runs are rumors from our POV, regardless of whether it is true or not, indicates they are trying to be very, very subtle about the format and its support now).
Alternatively they could just be extremely vocal about reducing tournament support (and admitting that a second print run is just to hold profit margins and also that the main reason for everything is simple to save Standard and since that needs time, they need to slow down Modern's actual tournament activity). It wouldn't be a bad thing for us either, provided they promise to bring it back up when Standard gets back on track, and meanwhile the lowered demand combined with the increased supply would actually mean price drops across the board, something the format needed for the longest time. The only issue with this great solution is WotC probably has pride (or Hasbro wants them to maintain it) and we all know how restless the player base is - the vocal complaints from those who don't/refuse to understand from simply decreased tournament support will never stop ringing.
Judging from WotC typical play-it-safe actions though, I think they're just going to swallow some "losses" (it could be just decrease in rise in profits for all we know, considering there were still some minor measures like Masterpieces) until Standard tides it over its rough period. As for the Modern end, either we don't get a second print, or they'll be very silent about it.
I assume more packs are cracked during weekends as drafts and sealed tournements are held on friday - sunday? Demand is the same all days of the week, but the supply is at it highest monday (after a weekend), hence we'll see a small increase in price during monday - friday?
Winner Norwegain Vintage Nationals 2006
Finalist Vintage Open at Arcon 2013
Finalist Modern Open at Arcon 2013
Winner Sweden Vintage Nationals at Eternalkungen Sweden 2013
Top8 Norwegian Legacy Nationals 2014
Winner Vintage Open at Arcon 2014
Top8 Legacy Open at Arcon 2014
Top4 Legacy Open at Arcon 2015
Winner Modern Open at Arcon 2015
Finalist Norwegian Legacy Nationals 2016
Winner Vintage Open at Arcon 2016
Modern:
DredgeVine
EDH:
Gisela, Blade of Goldnight
Anima
Standard: