I've ordered a playset of verdant catacomb and a playset of tarmo at my local store. Tarmo is at 75euros right now. Do you think I have to wait a bit to take them? What can be the lowest price for tarmo?
This question has been asked over and over and over again in this thread, just read the damn thing. Yes you should wait, prices take about 6 weeks to bottom out after the release of a set.
It can piss you off all you want, but I definitely value his opinion more than yours, considering he plays the deck nearly exclusively, works with WOTC, and is their statistics man.
They are also in position to influence the player base's thinking.
Those same people said Jund was dead without DRS, yet it lives, they said Jund was dead without BBE, yet it lives.
People get use to playing with recent additions to decks and tend to forget they were decks prior to those recent editions, and top level decks.
If you have a Modern scene near you, play Affinity without Mox Opals for one tournament. I think you may be surprised how well it works without them. Or dont, let others dictate how you think. Its up to you.
Really? Because the hands without mox opal feel awful, Affinity is awful if it goes with the traditional drop 1 on turn one, drop two on turn 2, etc. One of the reasons I sold my Opals is because I worry about the prices tanking. Mox opal does not feel like a good spec
Affinity is just a bunch of synergetic cards glued together, the cards themselves are awful
Really? Because the hands without mox opal feel awful, Affinity is awful if it goes with the traditional drop 1 on turn one, drop two on turn 2, etc. One of the reasons I sold my Opals is because I worry about the prices tanking. Mox opal does not feel like a good spec
Affinity is just a bunch of synergetic cards glued together, the cards themselves are awful
Are Mox Opal's being used in any other format other than Modern?
The mox opal thing wasn't meant to be a discussion ban, I just meant that if someone is afraid of a mox opal and wanted to spec into Ravager that they should consider the two interlocked in prices going up or down
So the absolute floor for Scalding Tarn is likely $80. I got extremely lucky snagging one for $70, but it looks like everyone else has been eyeing them as well. The $80 listings are already drying up (at least 10 sold in the last 24 hours. At that price, only 1 seller with 2 left on TCG, 1 seller with 3 left on eBay). New TCG listings are in the $85-95 range, next cheapest eBay listing already at $105. So the fight for the bottom seems to have already happened and is stabilizing around "some amount around or under $100." Don't know what this means long term, but that's still a great improvement over the previous ~$150 for the Zen Tarns.
So the absolute floor for Scalding Tarn is likely $80. I got extremely lucky snagging one for $70, but it looks like everyone else has been eyeing them as well. The $80 listings are already drying up (at least 10 sold in the last 24 hours. At that price, only 1 seller with 2 left on TCG, 1 seller with 3 left on eBay). New TCG listings are in the $85-95 range, next cheapest eBay listing already at $105. So the fight for the bottom seems to have already happened and is stabilizing around "some amount around or under $100." Don't know what this means long term, but that's still a great improvement over the previous ~$150 for the Zen Tarns.
Just want to clarify before someone faints that cfusion means foil Tarns.
Private Mod Note
():
Rollback Post to RevisionRollBack
Playing UX Mana Denial until Modern gets the answers it needs.
WUBRG Humans BRW Mardu Pyromancer UW UW "Control" UR Blue Moon
Really? Because the hands without mox opal feel awful, Affinity is awful if it goes with the traditional drop 1 on turn one, drop two on turn 2, etc. One of the reasons I sold my Opals is because I worry about the prices tanking. Mox opal does not feel like a good spec
Affinity is just a bunch of synergetic cards glued together, the cards themselves are awful
You are missing the point of Affinity was a deck prior to Mox Opals printing, and a high level top deck at that.
But like I said, dont believe me. Go play in an event without Opals and see how you do. I have done it. Its really not as bad as everyone makes it out to be. The deck would adjust.
I'm still holding out for a few weeks until I pick up non-foil sets of enemy fetches, but I'm really digging how prices have adjusted to MM17 thus far. I picked up my pre-ordered box last night as well as 8 loose boosters at MSRP; planning to sit on the box and eventually draft it and cracked the boosters. Considering I don't crack packs anymore aside from Masters sets, I'm very pleased with my pulls: GG, Linvala, Damnation, and Arid Mesa are the notables. Putting value into the rare slot was a fantastic decision; literally every single one of those pulls will go into either one of my modern or edh decks. Aside from play sets of enemy fetches, I'm keeping my eye on the Zen printing of GG and hoping to pick up a set for ~$50 in the near future. However, I can see the zen printing holding it's value above $15-20, so I'll probably pull the trigger once they dip below $15/ea or start trending back upward.
Really? Because the hands without mox opal feel awful, Affinity is awful if it goes with the traditional drop 1 on turn one, drop two on turn 2, etc. One of the reasons I sold my Opals is because I worry about the prices tanking. Mox opal does not feel like a good spec
Affinity is just a bunch of synergetic cards glued together, the cards themselves are awful
You are missing the point of Affinity was a deck prior to Mox Opals printing, and a high level top deck at that.
But like I said, dont believe me. Go play in an event without Opals and see how you do. I have done it. Its really not as bad as everyone makes it out to be. The deck would adjust.
What are you talking about?! Mox Opal has been apart of Modern Affinity since day one. Opal was printed in October 2010. Modern became a format in Spring 2011. Opal has always been run as a 4 of in competitive Affinity builds to my knowledge.
My guess is that he's equivocating Standard/Extended Affinity with Modern Affinity. Despite many of the relevant cards being banned in Modern, the expanded cardpool, and being a completely different meta. And being cheeky about it by not pointing out that's what he's doing, so if anyone points out that Affinity has always had Opal, he can condescendingly correct them.
Really? Because the hands without mox opal feel awful, Affinity is awful if it goes with the traditional drop 1 on turn one, drop two on turn 2, etc. One of the reasons I sold my Opals is because I worry about the prices tanking. Mox opal does not feel like a good spec
Affinity is just a bunch of synergetic cards glued together, the cards themselves are awful
You are missing the point of Affinity was a deck prior to Mox Opals printing, and a high level top deck at that.
But like I said, dont believe me. Go play in an event without Opals and see how you do. I have done it. Its really not as bad as everyone makes it out to be. The deck would adjust.
What are you talking about?! Mox Opal has been apart of Modern Affinity since day one. Opal was printed in October 2010. Modern became a format in Spring 2011. Opal has always been run as a 4 of in competitive Affinity builds to my knowledge.
My guess is that he's equivocating Standard/Extended Affinity with Modern Affinity. Despite many of the relevant cards being banned in Modern, the expanded cardpool, and being a completely different meta.
Just so you know, collation in MM17 is an absolute mess.
Opened 4 cases (well, 3 and a half) yesterday. After case 1, I had exactly ONE IoK. I had 3 Snapcasters, a Goyf, foil Liliana, and ONE IoK.
Now I consider that a fair trade, I'll trade 3 or 4 IoK for a Snapcaster all year long, but the problems run deeper.
Cases run very hot, or very cold. My 1st 2 cases were incredible. Foil Lili, foil goyf, foil cavern, 4 scalding tarn, 2 reg goyf, 2 lili, Verdant Catacombs for days, lots of fetches.
2nd 2 cases, well, let's just say I now have a playset of Bonfire of the Damned, Entreat the Angels and 3 Past in Flames and 3 Temporal Mastery.
And if a playset of Entreat the Angels wasn't enough, how about a foil entreat? And foil Olivia Voldaren in back to back boxes in the same case? Hey, we'll even throw in a couple Sphinx's Revelation and Domri Rade, we wouldn't want you to feel bad. The only saving grace was the 4 Misty Rainforest. The first 2 cases, awesome as they were, had 0 Misty Rainforest. Did I mention collation is a mess? So, from 14 boxes, here's the fetchland collation:
Scalding Tarn - 6
Misty Rainforest - 4
Verdant Catacombs - 8 and 1 foil
Marsh Flats - 6
Arid Mesa - 6 and a foil
That's actually not bad, other than 0 in 2 cases, and 4 in 6 boxes.
You want more collation issues? Desecration Demon. I have 1 regular. Every other rare I have at least 5 of, other than a certain fetchland. No complaints, he's not a guy I want to pull. I'm just glad its him and not, say, a fetchland (oh hello Misty Rainforest. Haven't seen you around much) or Damnation.
Am hopeful I will pull another Misty in the last 2 boxes to even things out.
At the end of the day, I had about 5 or 6 less IoK than the other notable uncommons like Serum Visions, Path and Terminate. I will mention in all that, I've only opened half of case 4, as I will be doing sealed with my nephews this weekend some time.
I was hoping to come out of this with a foil cavern (check) a playset of Goyf, (3/4) a playset of Lili (2/4) and 2 playsets of fetches, and a lot of other staples to trade into the essentials I don't have (vials, chalices and crucibles being the biggest ones. Oh, and the nirvana of cracking packs, which has a value all it's own. If I do meet those goals, it will only be because I lucked out with foil goyf and foil lili. I'm going to have to cash up for the vials, chalices and crucibles, I think.
We'll see what the last 2 boxes hold.
For all that people complain about MM15, I opened 15 boxes, and while I got 0 goyfs, I was ok with it, because I got playsets, or near playsets of all the desirable mythics and rares. Opal (4) Bob (3 and 2 foils) Clique (4) Bitterblossom (4) Kozilek (4) Ulamog (4) Emrakul (3) Karn (2 and a foil) Comet Storm? 2. Prime Time? 2. Kiki Jiki, 2, Tezzeret, 2, Elsh Norn, 2 (she was one of the cheaper ones until just recently). All the value was in the higher end so no goyfs didn't sting as bad. Not to mention getting 6 or 7 of staples like Spellskite, Fulminator Mage, Noble Heirarch, Cryptic Command and so on. It got me into modern, and now, with MM17 I can build very nearly any modern deck.
We won't even get into EMA. My case was such an extreme outlier (on the positive end) that it's not fair to compare it to anything. Case of a lifetime. And, to be fair, a lot of the value in EMA was in the previously unprinted foils, and even some that had been, which truly made for a lottery experience.
All in all, the pendulum swung more toward the middle on this one. I have at least 2 of everything. I guess it wouldn't sting so bad if it were all evened out. I pity the fool who gets one of these rotten cases. I'd be beyond royally pissed if I paid $800 for one of the bad cases, where the top value was, in the one case, a lone Goyf, with no other mythic support, and in the other, a lone Snapcaster Mage, so far.
As for the randomness, I don't mind randomness, but for it to be this bad? It's like they took the mythics and said, ok, these crap mythics will all go together, and these awesome mythics will all go together. It's like Fact or Fiction except your opponent gets to put them face down and you have to choose blind.
I'm shocked how much cards are plummeting from modern masters; I had a feeling Bosephus was completely wrong about prices tanking just based on Starcity and their preorder prices. If boxes were low, they'd gouge for prices, they obviously know more than we do. I mean, literally hours after he said he doesn't think foil Tarns would hit below 100, it went down to 80. You bank too much on word of mouth from friends and people that work at your local LGS.
I'm a little annoyed that I bought some expensive cards just a little before the fetches were revealed
I did sell 4x Scalding Tarns and 4x Misties before fetches were revelaed, so I made out a little. I'm still in shock how low these cards are falling, but it's good for the average person and it'll pull players into the format.
I mean, Goyf is literally half of what he was---it's crazy.
I'd keep the foil Tarn for a while, it feels like it'll be more valuable a few years from now.
They will continue to fall as long as the incoming supply is greater than the demand for cards. Right now TONS AND TONS of boxes are being opened and cards are flooding the market. Sellers are trying to offload as quickly as possible, so the constant undercutting will drive prices down. Once supply starts drying up prices will even out and then slowly start going back up. Depending on the card and level of demand, this could be anywhere from a as little as month to more than a year. Of course, any card could spike at any time due to a breakout performance, buyout, or ban/unban news.
Everybody keeps saying to wait 6-8 weeks after release for prices to bottom out. That may be a mistake. It depends entirely on whether this set is going to bring in a good amount of new players. It certainly has enough staples to do so. So I'd caution folks against waiting too long. If that surge of new Modern players really does happen, demand will pick up drastically in a few weeks. I'd say the prime time to buy is about 3 weeks after release to allow for a decent amount of drafting but more importantly speculators and shops cracking cases.
The 12 hours before and 12 after release seemed to have the most volatile (and lowest) prices. There was extreme undercutting from every seller for every card I was tracking as they were trying to find the floor price of cards. Some have still continued down slowly, some have leveled off. My personal opinion is that any time between now and that 3 weeks described above is a good time to buy. You may miss the absolute lowest point, but most cards are within a few dollars of their lowest point right now. It's a really great time to buy anything you need right now, and luckily tax returns are helping with that!
Some highlights of current prices:
Marsh Flats/Arid Mesa - $20-25
Misty/Verdant - $25-30
Scalding Tarn - $35-40
Blood Moon - $18
Goblin Guide - $15
Voice of Resurgence - $10
Decay - $4
Cage/Stony - $2.50
The 12 hours before and 12 after release seemed to have the most volatile (and lowest) prices. There was extreme undercutting from every seller for every card I was tracking as they were trying to find the floor price of cards. Some have still continued down slowly, some have leveled off. My personal opinion is that any time between now and that 3 weeks described above is a good time to buy. You may miss the absolute lowest point, but most cards are within a few dollars of their lowest point right now. It's a really great time to buy anything you need right now, and luckily tax returns are helping with that!
Some highlights of current prices:
Marsh Flats/Arid Mesa - $20-25
Misty/Verdant - $25-30
Scalding Tarn - $35-40
Blood Moon - $18
Goblin Guide - $15
Voice of Resurgence - $10
Decay - $4
Cage/Stony - $2.50
Completely forgot about tax season buying. That's a great point. Thankfully all I need from this set is Voice of Resurgence and a couple Damnations.
Completely forgot about tax season buying. That's a great point. Thankfully all I need from this set is Voice of Resurgence and a couple Damnations.
That's really the only way I can justify doing silly things like dropping $320 on four foil Scalding Tarn all at once...
Damn. I don't do the foil thing. When I bought into Zen fetches I think the highest I paid was $25 per for Tarns and all 20 (4x each of the 5) was under $300.
Tarmogoyfs seem to be rebounding. Last night I remember them being a solid 75 and nownthey are back up to 80. Everything ranked hard but it will rebound for sure in the long run. Most people are getting uneasy with the way the prices fell so if you want stuff get it before everyone recovers from their shock. I think now is the time to buy boxes if you want to hold them for future drafting or want an incredibly promising investment.
Value is good. But Dredgevine isn't supposed to be about value. It's supposed to be about V-8; 2000 pounds of nitro boosted war vegetables. The more velocity, the better.
Modern: DredgeVine EDH: Gisela, Blade of Goldnight Anima Standard:
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This question has been asked over and over and over again in this thread, just read the damn thing. Yes you should wait, prices take about 6 weeks to bottom out after the release of a set.
Abzan Traverse / Traverse Shadow / UR Kiki
They are also in position to influence the player base's thinking.
Those same people said Jund was dead without DRS, yet it lives, they said Jund was dead without BBE, yet it lives.
People get use to playing with recent additions to decks and tend to forget they were decks prior to those recent editions, and top level decks.
If you have a Modern scene near you, play Affinity without Mox Opals for one tournament. I think you may be surprised how well it works without them. Or dont, let others dictate how you think. Its up to you.
Affinity is just a bunch of synergetic cards glued together, the cards themselves are awful
Are Mox Opal's being used in any other format other than Modern?
but yet are fine with Jace.
If someone asked me if Opals were a sound investment I'd probably say yes.
Edit: Yes, I mean foil Tarns.
UR ....... WUBR ........... WB ............. RGW ........ UBR ....... WUB .... BGU
Spells / Blink & Combo / Token Grind / Dino Tribal / Draw Cards / Zombies / Reanimate
Just want to clarify before someone faints that cfusion means foil Tarns.
WUBRG Humans
BRW Mardu Pyromancer
UW UW "Control"
UR Blue Moon
You are missing the point of Affinity was a deck prior to Mox Opals printing, and a high level top deck at that.
But like I said, dont believe me. Go play in an event without Opals and see how you do. I have done it. Its really not as bad as everyone makes it out to be. The deck would adjust.
Link to Discord server where anybody from MTGS can keep up with thread topics while everything is being sorted out with the new site.
My guess is that he's equivocating Standard/Extended Affinity with Modern Affinity. Despite many of the relevant cards being banned in Modern, the expanded cardpool, and being a completely different meta. And being cheeky about it by not pointing out that's what he's doing, so if anyone points out that Affinity has always had Opal, he can condescendingly correct them.
Or maybe it was just a brain fart. ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
WUBRG Humans
BRW Mardu Pyromancer
UW UW "Control"
UR Blue Moon
And lack of artifact lands.
UR ....... WUBR ........... WB ............. RGW ........ UBR ....... WUB .... BGU
Spells / Blink & Combo / Token Grind / Dino Tribal / Draw Cards / Zombies / Reanimate
Opened 4 cases (well, 3 and a half) yesterday. After case 1, I had exactly ONE IoK. I had 3 Snapcasters, a Goyf, foil Liliana, and ONE IoK.
Now I consider that a fair trade, I'll trade 3 or 4 IoK for a Snapcaster all year long, but the problems run deeper.
Cases run very hot, or very cold. My 1st 2 cases were incredible. Foil Lili, foil goyf, foil cavern, 4 scalding tarn, 2 reg goyf, 2 lili, Verdant Catacombs for days, lots of fetches.
2nd 2 cases, well, let's just say I now have a playset of Bonfire of the Damned, Entreat the Angels and 3 Past in Flames and 3 Temporal Mastery.
And if a playset of Entreat the Angels wasn't enough, how about a foil entreat? And foil Olivia Voldaren in back to back boxes in the same case? Hey, we'll even throw in a couple Sphinx's Revelation and Domri Rade, we wouldn't want you to feel bad. The only saving grace was the 4 Misty Rainforest. The first 2 cases, awesome as they were, had 0 Misty Rainforest. Did I mention collation is a mess? So, from 14 boxes, here's the fetchland collation:
Scalding Tarn - 6
Misty Rainforest - 4
Verdant Catacombs - 8 and 1 foil
Marsh Flats - 6
Arid Mesa - 6 and a foil
That's actually not bad, other than 0 in 2 cases, and 4 in 6 boxes.
You want more collation issues? Desecration Demon. I have 1 regular. Every other rare I have at least 5 of, other than a certain fetchland. No complaints, he's not a guy I want to pull. I'm just glad its him and not, say, a fetchland (oh hello Misty Rainforest. Haven't seen you around much) or Damnation.
Am hopeful I will pull another Misty in the last 2 boxes to even things out.
At the end of the day, I had about 5 or 6 less IoK than the other notable uncommons like Serum Visions, Path and Terminate. I will mention in all that, I've only opened half of case 4, as I will be doing sealed with my nephews this weekend some time.
I was hoping to come out of this with a foil cavern (check) a playset of Goyf, (3/4) a playset of Lili (2/4) and 2 playsets of fetches, and a lot of other staples to trade into the essentials I don't have (vials, chalices and crucibles being the biggest ones. Oh, and the nirvana of cracking packs, which has a value all it's own. If I do meet those goals, it will only be because I lucked out with foil goyf and foil lili. I'm going to have to cash up for the vials, chalices and crucibles, I think.
We'll see what the last 2 boxes hold.
For all that people complain about MM15, I opened 15 boxes, and while I got 0 goyfs, I was ok with it, because I got playsets, or near playsets of all the desirable mythics and rares. Opal (4) Bob (3 and 2 foils) Clique (4) Bitterblossom (4) Kozilek (4) Ulamog (4) Emrakul (3) Karn (2 and a foil) Comet Storm? 2. Prime Time? 2. Kiki Jiki, 2, Tezzeret, 2, Elsh Norn, 2 (she was one of the cheaper ones until just recently). All the value was in the higher end so no goyfs didn't sting as bad. Not to mention getting 6 or 7 of staples like Spellskite, Fulminator Mage, Noble Heirarch, Cryptic Command and so on. It got me into modern, and now, with MM17 I can build very nearly any modern deck.
We won't even get into EMA. My case was such an extreme outlier (on the positive end) that it's not fair to compare it to anything. Case of a lifetime. And, to be fair, a lot of the value in EMA was in the previously unprinted foils, and even some that had been, which truly made for a lottery experience.
All in all, the pendulum swung more toward the middle on this one. I have at least 2 of everything. I guess it wouldn't sting so bad if it were all evened out. I pity the fool who gets one of these rotten cases. I'd be beyond royally pissed if I paid $800 for one of the bad cases, where the top value was, in the one case, a lone Goyf, with no other mythic support, and in the other, a lone Snapcaster Mage, so far.
As for the randomness, I don't mind randomness, but for it to be this bad? It's like they took the mythics and said, ok, these crap mythics will all go together, and these awesome mythics will all go together. It's like Fact or Fiction except your opponent gets to put them face down and you have to choose blind.
I'm a little annoyed that I bought some expensive cards just a little before the fetches were revealed
I did sell 4x Scalding Tarns and 4x Misties before fetches were revelaed, so I made out a little. I'm still in shock how low these cards are falling, but it's good for the average person and it'll pull players into the format.
I mean, Goyf is literally half of what he was---it's crazy.
I'd keep the foil Tarn for a while, it feels like it'll be more valuable a few years from now.
Modern Tallowisp Spirits - A Modern Tallowisp Deck UW
Eldrazi Ninjas - Summoning Octopus Jutsu YYYYAAAHHHH!
STANDARD
Naban Wizards
They will continue to fall as long as the incoming supply is greater than the demand for cards. Right now TONS AND TONS of boxes are being opened and cards are flooding the market. Sellers are trying to offload as quickly as possible, so the constant undercutting will drive prices down. Once supply starts drying up prices will even out and then slowly start going back up. Depending on the card and level of demand, this could be anywhere from a as little as month to more than a year. Of course, any card could spike at any time due to a breakout performance, buyout, or ban/unban news.
UR ....... WUBR ........... WB ............. RGW ........ UBR ....... WUB .... BGU
Spells / Blink & Combo / Token Grind / Dino Tribal / Draw Cards / Zombies / Reanimate
Standard: lol no
Modern: BG/x, UR/x, Burn, Merfolk, Zoo, Storm
Legacy: Shardless BUG, Delver (BUG, RUG, Grixis), Landstill, Depths Combo, Merfolk
Vintage: Dark Times, BUG Fish, Merfolk
EDH: Teysa, Orzhov Scion / Krenko, Mob Boss / Stonebrow, Krosan Hero
RGTron
UGInfect
URStorm
WUBRAd Nauseam
BRGrishoalbrand
URGScapeshift
WBGAbzan Company
WUBRGAmulet Titan
BRGLiving End
WGBogles
Some highlights of current prices:
Marsh Flats/Arid Mesa - $20-25
Misty/Verdant - $25-30
Scalding Tarn - $35-40
Blood Moon - $18
Goblin Guide - $15
Voice of Resurgence - $10
Decay - $4
Cage/Stony - $2.50
UR ....... WUBR ........... WB ............. RGW ........ UBR ....... WUB .... BGU
Spells / Blink & Combo / Token Grind / Dino Tribal / Draw Cards / Zombies / Reanimate
Standard: lol no
Modern: BG/x, UR/x, Burn, Merfolk, Zoo, Storm
Legacy: Shardless BUG, Delver (BUG, RUG, Grixis), Landstill, Depths Combo, Merfolk
Vintage: Dark Times, BUG Fish, Merfolk
EDH: Teysa, Orzhov Scion / Krenko, Mob Boss / Stonebrow, Krosan Hero
That's really the only way I can justify doing silly things like dropping $320 on four foil Scalding Tarn all at once...
UR ....... WUBR ........... WB ............. RGW ........ UBR ....... WUB .... BGU
Spells / Blink & Combo / Token Grind / Dino Tribal / Draw Cards / Zombies / Reanimate
Standard: lol no
Modern: BG/x, UR/x, Burn, Merfolk, Zoo, Storm
Legacy: Shardless BUG, Delver (BUG, RUG, Grixis), Landstill, Depths Combo, Merfolk
Vintage: Dark Times, BUG Fish, Merfolk
EDH: Teysa, Orzhov Scion / Krenko, Mob Boss / Stonebrow, Krosan Hero
Modern:
EDH:
Standard: