MTG Salvation

Mishra's Bauble is an uncommon. I bought Mishra's Bauble (and other Baubles) many years ago, along with cards like Street Wraith and Edge of Autumn because they were free or nearly free spells that go through your deck. For many years, the cards I had didn't go up and some never went up enough to sell, Mishra's Bauble being the exception. So for someone to say that it is a good card now is somewhat missing the point. The card always did what the card did - there were no changes to the oracle text.

It's simply that people want to play what Josh Utter Leyton won the Grand Prix with, what Sam Black masterfully played on camera matches with, and what Gerry Thompson started 12-0 with. That and it being from a set that was terrible to open (I personally drafted it once and told myself to avoid that with a 10 foot pole.)

Modern is a format where most players participating in it buy up singles that they perceive as obvious "good stuff". So that usually means when articles pop up with a deck tech, even if the deck is somewhat unplayable jank people will still look at the cards in it and go over to TCGPlayer or their LGS and buy the most expensive on the list. Also, not a lot of people think for themselves in the deck building aspects in modern and those that do still end up having to conform to the fact that modern is a format made up of the best cards from each set modern contains.

Colt, you need to ask why you're even taking part if that's how you feel. Look in the Deck Creation and Developing Competitive forums.

You are missing out on what makes this Magics greatest format.

Cryptic has bottomed it looks like. Hell if there is any blue people are looking for, get on it.

Can we take a moment to consider the market ramifications of an unban in April?

It's a small sample size (n of 1) but last year wizards seemed to indicate that their ban-in-jan, unban-in-april thing was going to be a recurring consideration.

I'm not an expert but from my own perspective, a likely unban would be either jace or stoneforge. Bloodbraid (however underpowered) seems unlikely at this point, much to my disappointment haha. Twin is also unlikely, but honestly I'm less concerned about the market ramifications of twin because in a very real sense we already had that deck legal and saw the price settle while it was tier 1. If twin was to be unbanned it would spike, then settle more or less where it used to be.

So let's consider the 2 more likely cards.

Jace:
Spikes to 90+ most likely. Settles after a while but not sure where.
Knock on effect; blue fetches hike up in price. Temporal mastery spikes in price (Brainstorm effect), as does Terminus (same reason). Remand and cryptic see a small increase. Potentially stuff like slaughter pact sees a slight increase as well (free way to protect jace if cast on curve).
Anything else?

Stoneforge;
Batterskull sees a huge hike. Foil promo skulls get bonkers.
No idea where stoneforge would get to in the initial price spike but it would probably settle fairly low in the end?
A couple of the better Swords in moder would see a price boost. Fire & ice, light & shadow and feast & famine are the best ones, obviously.
After that, I have no idea. I can't really see what other cards gain traction from a stoneforge unban, it's kind of self-contained. I guess it's possible that a couple of entire decks see a price increase like death&taxes and hatebears but it would be minimal, maybe confined to a couple of cards like Thalia.

Anyone able to help me get any further with this line of thinking? I'm a bit out of my depth when it comes to the market.

Quote from idSurge »

Colt, you need to ask why you're even taking part if that's how you feel. Look in the Deck Creation and Developing Competitive forums.

You are missing out on what makes this Magics greatest format.

Cryptic has bottomed it looks like. Hell if there is any blue people are looking for, get on it.

If the deck creation forum was the bulk of modern players I'd agree. Sadly, that isn't the case. It's easy to look at a website like mtgSalvation and think that is what the mtg community of modern is like, but this is more so where the most dedicated players tend to hang out more than the vast majority. There are different communities pocketed all over the place and in general the "me too" attitude is the prevailant one. A lot of the players even come to the deck creation forums, lurk around, and copy cat what they see there as well. Is there anything wrong with that? Probably not, but not accounting for this behavior is the reason prices on specific cards are extremely high. It's actually at it's worst in Standard due to the promotional tour causing the spotlight to be placed on specific cards.

Also, I'm going to emphasize that the "me too" attitude is not the sole reason that prices are high on staple modern cards, either. Legitimate brewing by deck builders and years of testing against a field of cards has proven they should have a high price tag than some others. The degree of that price difference is where the debate of MTG finance takes off.

Good job guys, arguing over semantics and whether X-card is "good" or not....

Blah. Can we have some real discussion on financials please? My above question needs some love, from anyone who knows better than I do. What are the ideal "pickups", pre an unban of either jace or sfm? What does the potential knock-on effect look like? Please refer to my previous post, 2 comments up in the thread. The idea of a crazy landscape-changing unban is exciting to me.

Yes right now if you're thinking of playing Jace, get them and the blue staples, right now there has been a near year of depression in blue, Jace plus a few boosted blue decks would skyrocket those prices.

I'm not sure the miracles would jump. I've got mine though so who knows.

Colt: you should get into mtgo, I play against all those brews all the time, and more. Your limited experience in RL doesn't reflect what most are seeing.

Quote from purklefluff »

Good job guys, arguing over semantics and whether X-card is "good" or not....

Blah. Can we have some real discussion on financials please? My above question needs some love, from anyone who knows better than I do. What are the ideal "pickups", pre an unban of either jace or sfm? What does the potential knock-on effect look like? Please refer to my previous post, 2 comments up in the thread. The idea of a crazy landscape-changing unban is exciting to me.

I think you pretty much nailed it in your above post. In the case of Jace, Cryptic, Remand, and blue fetches all spike, followed shortly by Terminus and a few other Miracle cards. Jace and Snapcaster probably spike hardest. I imagine Jace would settle around LotV's current price point; he wouldn't be run as heavily, but has a shorter supply. Plus, like many staples, the drive to have your set of the best 'Walker in the game plus his power in Eternal would give him strong price memory.

IMO, his best home at least in the early months would be Sultai Control, so he may bring up the price of some BG pieces as well, or any relevant UG pieces (not sure how many of those exist, though). Liliana into Jace with BG's creature and discard suite is backbreaking against any creature-based deck. Colonnade is also a likely target, as is Tar Pit.

SFM means Skull and Swords spike, with the latter settling down as the meta settled on the best configuration of equipment. I imagine Vial would spike shortly after, possibly other pieces from D&T as you noted. Some other good White midrange cards like Elspeth may follow, along with a potential uptick in Academy Ruins as people try various UW shells with her. Foil/promo Squadron Hawk may also spike, but I doubt it would gain much traction. Foil Souls would probably also get a bit of a hike.

As for the card itself, she's in greater supply than Jace, but would be run in greater numbers and in more decks IMO, so I'd guess she settles around $50-$65 in the short term.

The other likely unban candidate, Preordain, would probably result in a quick spike to maybe ~$5, while also pushing the price of other blue staples much like Jace. I expect that after that, we'd see upward movement by some pieces from Ad Naus (the most consistent – and only tiered – combo deck currently running Blue cantrips IIRC), along with possibly Storm and Gifts pieces moving upwards. Foil Delver of Secrets may also hike a bit, given it's in short supply, hard to reprint, and a better cantrip disproportionately affects Delver. Still not as much as it affects combo, but more than it affects the rest of the field because that extra consistency means more when it's helping Delver flip as well.

Foils are already over $50 a piece, so I don't expect that much movement there as that's probably past what Modern players alone would drive it to.

Hey, why is the foil Jace from the vault so much cheaper, is the foiling process crappy from that set?

I don't know what's going to happen to blue, I'm actually in the process of selling all my blue staples on mtgotraders. I wish Blue control was a consistent tier 1 deck again while offering different things from GBx

Quote from Spsiegel1987 »

Hey, why is the foil Jace from the vault so much cheaper, is the foiling process crappy from that set?

I don't know what's going to happen to blue, I'm actually in the process of selling all my blue staples on mtgotraders. I wish Blue control was a consistent tier 1 deck again while offering different things from GBx

Yes, the foiling process is very crappy. I personally am a bit of a foil whore and I never would play FTV foils in any decks, unless I literally had to and couldn't find anything else for a tournament. It would be the last tournament I would play them in. I personally own 2 WW foil Jace, the Mind Sculptor and the card just looks sooooo much better. It's tough(er) to explain until you look closely at both in person.

The the ability to Jacestorm could open up a weak Miracles deck, which could effect Counterbalance. Not saying it'd be great, but I know people would try a first. Outside of ramp decks, Modern is getting more and more streamlined.

I actually like the shiny vertical lines produced in FTV foiling, but it's definitely a lower quality of foiling. FTVs are generally about the same as (or little more than) regular copies, but significantly less than pack foils.

Thanks for the explanation

I've got a nice chunk of my jund and junk deck foiled out. I screwed up really badly and got the expedition lands, so it's too late to revert into the OG set. If I get a good job after graduating from grad school I'll think about it

I was collecting Mishra baubles a few weeks before the Gp, it's so overpriced. I feel that if shadow decks do well again this weekend we could he looking at huge spikes.

The pieces to the deck are difficult to get as it is

Quote from Spsiegel1987 »

Thanks for the explanation

I've got a nice chunk of my jund and junk deck foiled out. I screwed up really badly and got the expedition lands, so it's too late to revert into the OG set. If I get a good job after graduating from grad school I'll think about it

I was collecting Mishra baubles a few weeks before the Gp, it's so overpriced. I feel that if shadow decks do well again this weekend we could he looking at huge spikes.

The pieces to the deck are difficult to get as it is

Mishra's Bauble and Death's Shadow already spiked a bunch. I wouldn't get them now in anticipation of any more price increases. (unless you are to buy my last 2 Death's Shadow on fb )

Regarding Expedition foils, I personally prefer the original set foils, so I actually don't even own any Expeditions, other than the 2 I used store credit on. But I know lots of players who actually prefer the Expeditions and I do have to admit that there are fewer of them in existence, so their price could very well surpass OG set foils some day. In fact, it's just a matter of time.

Of the 4 foil Jund decks I've seen (not counting mine at 60% foiled), 3 of them are Expedition foiled and one is Japanese foiled OG sets. So my personal bias is to see most foil Jund decks as Expeds.

Quote from Spsiegel1987 »

Thanks for the explanation

I've got a nice chunk of my jund and junk deck foiled out. I screwed up really badly and got the expedition lands, so it's too late to revert into the OG set. If I get a good job after graduating from grad school I'll think about it

I was collecting Mishra baubles a few weeks before the Gp, it's so overpriced. I feel that if shadow decks do well again this weekend we could he looking at huge spikes.

The pieces to the deck are difficult to get as it is

As I said, I actually really like the way the foiling looks. It's bright, it pops, and has vertical streaks running up and down the card. But it's a pretty weak foiling process and the edges seem to get roughed up pretty easily. That being said, I have a number of other FTV20 cards I use in Commander (Fact or Fiction, Impulse) and have no personal issue in dealing with the defects. When in a double sleeve, you can't even make out the edge wear (See attached images).

As for the Expeditions, I don't think they were necessarily a bad investment, but they have definitely not gone up in value. Depending on when you bought in, you could have lost a bunch, but they have been pretty steady for a long time. I have expedition Steam Vents, Watery Grave, and Blood Crypt with no regrets. I think they are beautiful and look fantastic next to BFZ foil basics. I think they will hold value just fine over time. They are still extremely limited and played extensively throughout Modern. By contrast, most foil RTR block shocks are still extremely affordable.

Bauble could be a good spec target, but only in the short term. If DSJund ends up being as powerful and busted as it looked last weekend, it could very easily eat another ban and make those Baubles worthless.

Side note: I'm in a similar situation with $$$. I support myself now by buying and selling cards, but with a later-in-life career change that puts me unpaid teaching in the day and grad school at night. Once I have an income this Fall I can go back to speccing like I used to.

Yup, I'm there with you, Cfusion. The Army is paying for my grad school and I'm being paid 3,000 a month just for going to school. Interning as a guidance counselor in a school.

I bought a few Death Shadow foils but not going too crazy, didn't spend the money on too many foil pieces.

Going by the vendors, we're going to see a LOT of Shadow decks this weekend, so the numbers and results could be a little skewed and inflated.

That being said, if it looks like we have another Eldrazi Winter on our hands, I suppose I could sell off the foils.

I was just playing with it on mtgo, and beat the holy hell out of Delver and grinded out a game against Abzan Company. Once you figure out how to sideboard the deck becomes a lot less difficult to pilot.

The deck is super real, it's too late to spec on it now though.

Zen fetches in MM3. Sell now.

Quote from whocansay »

Zen fetches in MM3. Sell now.

Proof?

Quote from whocansay »

Zen fetches in MM3. Sell now.

Done. Got CFB to buy each and every one of 2 sets.

Quote from Oopssorryy »

Quote from whocansay »

Zen fetches in MM3. Sell now.

Proof?

Considering how long whocansay has been on the forum I doubt that he would pull something like that out of nowhere. I understand everyone's diehard skepticism when it's a user who has no history on the site but I really doubt people who have been in the thread have any reason to try and ruin other peoples days (although it wouldn't surprise me).

Looking at what he said it is in your best interest to sell your fetches if you can take what he says with any sort of credibility (which I do, its a personal preference though). It's really reverse speculating, if you sell them now without seeing evidence and they don't get reprinted I HIGHLY doubt they will go up because besides the half-joking comments about fetches being in MM3 nobody (or very few people) would have been waiting to buy fetches until after the MM3 release. If he provides evidence, that most likely means that the evidence is out there for other people to see and that panic selling will start immediately. Considering the recent comments about fetches not being in standard it really would not surprise me to see them in the set. I honestly see too much downside if they get reprinted to the upside if they don't get reprinted. If you are actively playing the fetches than keep them for sure because in my opinion you always put your decks and cards that you are actively playing with at the highest priority. However if you are holding them for future deckbuilding or they are in a deck you don't use I would sell them off and buy them back after MM3. Worst case scenario you lose a bit on selling fees and shipping. Best case scenario you get about $30-$40 per fetch.

Tank those Tarns daddy needs those in paper!

Sooooo, are they mythics or rares?

Either way, I win. Mythic, I get roughly a playset of each. Rare, I get roughly 2 playsets, and prices don't come down like they would if they were a Standard release.

I'm skeptical though. Zen fetches would consume most of the value in a box, leaving little room for anything else. Some say it would send the price upward, since MM is not an unlimited release like Standard. People would have to purchase now, or wait for upwards of a decade. Really, it would be a very, very bad thing for Modern's continuity and repel new players. I just don't see it happening.

If fetches really are in MM3, I imagine that makes boxes a good prospect if you can nab them at the current prices?

It would be a stupid and relatively fruitless measure to reprint fetches in MM17. Horrible idea that will do little to curb costs or drastically increase supply. They NEED to be in Standard to come down to reasonable prices (like with Khans).

Most likely, I imagine it would be about 1-2 per box if khans was 2-3. Assuming the rest of the set is near the value of mm2015 on release then definitely, but honestly there is too much risk in that for my interest. There is no 100% on fetchs being in the set and it's putting money into the speculation as opposed to selling off fetchs which would be taking your money out of it. There is also a great chance to get hosed 1. By bad luck in the boxes 2. The print run being through the roof 3. The seller decides to back out if the boxes go up in value. If you want the boxes for drafting get them while they're really cheap but I wouldn't get them for the cracking packs for fun, yet again I usually buy singles anyway so who I am to tell you what to do.