One thing I don't think a lot of people are thinking about is what makes a card a certain rarity: how often should a card appear in limited? Tarmogoyf is pretty ridiculous in limited, pushing it into mythic rarity. But what about Noble Hierarch? What about Thoughtseize? They are incredible cards in constructed, but having two copies of either of them in the same draft isn't too terrible. Sure, they are looking to print cards with Modern in mind, but a set is a set, it has to follow the guidelines. I could see Vendilion Clique or Bloodbraid Elf as a rare or a mythic, but I would be shocked if they were to make a mythic Mutavault. It has a hefty price tag on it, but it's not the flashiest thing in the world or the strongest, so why would it be mythic.
Tarmogoyf is pretty ridiculous in limited, pushing it into mythic rarity.
Tarmogoyf isn't that good in limited. It is most likely mythic to not make it worth only $30, at mythic it will most likely be around $50. They stated that they don't want to completely ruin people's collections.
So, It seems that City of Brass is confirmed lol (with new art!)
Thas a fair pick I guess. They need allot of fodder. I think this will be a good size print run. He said small print compred to rtr, the most printed set to date.
I shall be keeping my goyfs, as I got them for 20 a pop and i still use them daily.
I might be willing to take a friend up on his offer for trading a force of will for a box of this... but I also think that stores wont be selling boxes of this, rather than just drafting it.
and I have to agree with Scion of Zendikar here. the whole power level of the set is up. That means what defines a rare and mythic is also upped. It is very possible that some of these rare cards become a uncommon because they arent too great, or others go higher becuase they are too bomby in limited.
So apparently people are selling goyfs on ebay for 70, which is what, 30 off the price tag a few days ago? I guess that's a start.
If you want to get them at a discount, now is the time to do it. Pretty soon people wake up to the fact that a limited printing of a mythic rare will not make the original card price drop more than a few dollars. It is just typical overreaction, and soon calmer heads will prevail.
I might be willing to take a friend up on his offer for trading a force of will for a box of this... but I also think that stores wont be selling boxes of this, rather than just drafting it.
I fracking hope not. I would be staggeringly angry about that, because I HATE drafting. It takes too long, and I just do not have the head for it. I have been trying Drafting for ten years, and have never been more than miserable at it, so if the only way to get packs of this is to draft I will explode.
I know that we MTGO people will be able to get a lot of product, but I do not want to have to dump money on long-ass drafts that waste the better part of a day or night in order to open packs in meatspace. Even the prospect of rare-drafting (which anyone not at the large tourney will do) is not enough for me to want to draft.
Also, am I missing something? Force of Will is what...a $70 card? A box of this will MSRP for more than twice that.
Dark Confidant is definitely mythic rare in power terms. I expect that he will be reprinted as such.
Mythic rare was supposed to be based on flavor, not power level and we have plenty of Arena effects at rare but i guess if the money grab goyf is randomly at mythic and we are getting bat tokens for unplayable rare cards then nothing stops them.
Goyf won't drop by a huge amount, too many people will hoard these for profit and those that don't will try to complete their sets so they can actually play them.
How much has magic grown since 8th edition? I think it's a safe bet to say the print runs have quadrupled since the m10 rules change. Old rares were as rare as nowadays mythic rares.
Mythic rare was supposed to be based on flavor, not power level.
Not in a special set like this. Rarity will have a lot more to do with it's effect on Limited, and the power-level of the card. There is no flavor in this set.
So apparently people are selling goyfs on ebay for 70, which is what, 30 off the price tag a few days ago? I guess that's a start.
Goyf has been selling for $85 a piece for the past month and a half. I look forward to the people freaking out and dumping theirs so I can buy up all the originals and hold them for when the price stabilizes.
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Not in a special set like this. Rarity will have a lot more to do with it's effect on Limited, and the power-level of the card. There is no flavor in this set.
Flavor as in planeswalkers, unique and flashy effects, etc.
And mythic was stated not to be a display of the set's strongest cards for constructed. But since WOTC has some promises they can break and some that they don't, we will see money at mythic and unnecessary rarity shifting. And to my best knowledge there is no fundamental difference between mythic and rare for limited. Mana cost is the fundamental knob for that.
Flavor as in planeswalkers, unique and flashy effects, etc.
And mythic was stated not to be a display of the set's strongest cards for constructed. But since WOTC has some promises they can break and some that they don't, we will see money at mythic and unnecessary rarity shifting. And to my best knowledge there is no fundamental difference between mythic and rare for limited. Mana cost is the fundamental knob for that.
Flavor is based on the storyline. There is no storyline for this set.
There's a huge difference between Mythic and Rare for limited. It means the difference between one copy of a card for a draft and 5-8 copies of it.
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And mythic was stated not to be a display of the set's strongest cards for constructed.
This is a special circumstance, and they have said that they are using rarity to limit the impact it will have on dealers and Limted players. This will not be held to the same rarity standards as other sets.
The first time you get a goyf foil you will think it worth 7$. Seeing as all packs has foils would it be wrong to think the chance of a mythic foil would be the same as the chance to just get a regular mythic. Is it going to be possible to open two mythics in a pack (A foil one and a regular one.) I really wonder how the foils rarity is going to work.
Also if it is indeed meant to be drafted then it would have to have limited fodder of some sort. If the keep the rares and the mythics decent you may not mind of a few of the commons and uncommons are more geared towards the drafting aspect. Also path and bolt in the same set could make for some interesting limited matches.
What is the point of announcing there will be 36 packs per booster box if they weren't planning on selling boxes of them?
24, because its the perfect drafting number. they said that over and over. thats why I think it will be drafted. they really stressed they are not making enough to reeeeeallllyyy dent prices so I suspect that stores will be getting, tops, 8 boxes or a single case.
One of the things to think about is that they could simply print this again next year (2014) to move the costs down: at some point goyf becomes prime titian
If the set is limited allocated and stores aren't selling just drafting, expect a market flood with the next one.
I wouldn't be surprised if stores get a couple cases. Heck this could have a print run the size of 8th Edition, and it would still be really small compared with today.
My LGS says he normally gets 50 cases of a set. I would expect the "limited print run" to mean he would be able to get half of that and that WoTC won't print it more than once.
There's a huge difference between Mythic and Rare for limited. It means the difference between one copy of a card for a draft and 5-8 copies of it.
Well, let's try to use some math on the numbers here. We're looking at 53 rares and 15 mythics in the set. The "rarity" of a mythic is 1 in 8 packs. So:
The chance you get a rare in a pack = 7/8
The chance you get a mythinc in a pack = 1/8
The chance of getting a specific rare (assuming it's a pack with a rare) = 1/53
The chance of getting a specific mythic (assuming it's a pack with a mythic) = 1/15
The chance of getting a specific rare (any pack) = 7/8 * 1/53 ~= 1.65%
The chance of getting a specific mythic (any pack) = 1/8 * 1/15 ~=0.83%
The chance to get an extra foil rare or a mythinc upps the odds a bit. Assuming the probability of getting any card of any rarity in foil is the same (we don't know this), assuming every pack has a foil (we know it's true), the chance of getting a specific card in foil is 1/229 ~= 0.43%. That is on top of the probabilities for normal rares.
Conclusion #1: Contrary to common misconception, a mythic is only twice as "rare" as a rare.
Conclusion #2: If my assumption about distribution of foils is correct, expect playsets of foil goyfs to flood ebay soon.
Modern Masters is awesome but I don't think this will have the huge impact on prices some think it will. At $7 a pack and a limited print run this isn't going to put Cliques and Goyfs in the bargain bin
You'll still have to shell out a fair amount of money for singles or packs, sorry.
Well, let's try to use some math on the numbers here. We're looking at 53 rares and 15 mythics in the set. The "rarity" of a mythic is 1 in 8 packs. So:
The chance you get a rare in a pack = 7/8
The chance you get a mythinc in a pack = 1/8
The chance of getting a specific rare (assuming it's a pack with a rare) = 1/53
The chance of getting a specific mythic (assuming it's a pack with a mythic) = 1/15
The chance of getting a specific rare (any pack) = 7/8 * 1/53 ~= 1.65%
The chance of getting a specific mythic (any pack) = 1/8 * 1/15 ~=0.83%
The chance to get an extra foil rare or a mythinc upps the odds a bit. Assuming the probability of getting any card of any rarity in foil is the same (we don't know this), assuming every pack has a foil (we know it's true), the chance of getting a specific card in foil is 1/229 ~= 0.43%. That is on top of the probabilities for normal rares.
Conclusion #1: Contrary to common misconception, a mythic is only twice as "rare" as a rare.
Conclusion #2: If my assumption about distribution of foils is correct, expect playsets of foil goyfs to flood ebay soon.
Your math is consistent with mythic distribution in boxes
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I could see cards like Dragonstorm, Crucible of Worlds, Elspeth, Knight-Errant, Doran, the Siege Tower, Knight of the Reliquary, and Kiki-Jiki, Mirror Breaker as mythics. I can see valid arguments why these are epic feeling, why they are too good for multiples at the same draft.
Nobody has mentioned planeswalkers. Why shouldn't Elspeth, Knight-Errant be in the set?
Signature by | Scion of Zendikar
Tarmogoyf isn't that good in limited. It is most likely mythic to not make it worth only $30, at mythic it will most likely be around $50. They stated that they don't want to completely ruin people's collections.
Thanks to Rivenor for the signature and XenoNinja for the Avi!
Quotes:
http://www.wizards.com/magic/magazine/article.aspx?x=mtg/daily/feature/218
Source. There is some nice looking City of Brass art about halfway through the article.
Edit: And there is a bat token in the set. Suggesting either Sengir Nosferatu or Skeletal Vampire. Or I suppose Belfry Spirit would also make sense as uncommon filler for limited.
Thas a fair pick I guess. They need allot of fodder. I think this will be a good size print run. He said small print compred to rtr, the most printed set to date.
I might be willing to take a friend up on his offer for trading a force of will for a box of this... but I also think that stores wont be selling boxes of this, rather than just drafting it.
and I have to agree with Scion of Zendikar here. the whole power level of the set is up. That means what defines a rare and mythic is also upped. It is very possible that some of these rare cards become a uncommon because they arent too great, or others go higher becuase they are too bomby in limited.
I fracking hope not. I would be staggeringly angry about that, because I HATE drafting. It takes too long, and I just do not have the head for it. I have been trying Drafting for ten years, and have never been more than miserable at it, so if the only way to get packs of this is to draft I will explode.
I know that we MTGO people will be able to get a lot of product, but I do not want to have to dump money on long-ass drafts that waste the better part of a day or night in order to open packs in meatspace. Even the prospect of rare-drafting (which anyone not at the large tourney will do) is not enough for me to want to draft.
Also, am I missing something? Force of Will is what...a $70 card? A box of this will MSRP for more than twice that.
Reprint Opt for Modern!!
FREE DIG THOROUGH TIME!
PLAY MORE ROUGE DECKS!
What is the point of announcing there will be 36 packs per booster box if they weren't planning on selling boxes of them?
FREE BLOODBRAID ELF
Reprint Opt for Modern!!
FREE DIG THOROUGH TIME!
PLAY MORE ROUGE DECKS!
Mythic rare was supposed to be based on flavor, not power level and we have plenty of Arena effects at rare but i guess if the money grab goyf is randomly at mythic and we are getting bat tokens for unplayable rare cards then nothing stops them.
Goyf won't drop by a huge amount, too many people will hoard these for profit and those that don't will try to complete their sets so they can actually play them.
How much has magic grown since 8th edition? I think it's a safe bet to say the print runs have quadrupled since the m10 rules change. Old rares were as rare as nowadays mythic rares.
Reprint Opt for Modern!!
FREE DIG THOROUGH TIME!
PLAY MORE ROUGE DECKS!
Goyf has been selling for $85 a piece for the past month and a half. I look forward to the people freaking out and dumping theirs so I can buy up all the originals and hold them for when the price stabilizes.
~~~~~~~~~
Too many to list efficiently. Find me online with the same SN if you want to play, or message me here to set up a time to play.
Modern
~~~~~~~~~
Whatever pile of 75 I throw together the night before without testing. Usually: :symb::symu::symg:
Flavor as in planeswalkers, unique and flashy effects, etc.
And mythic was stated not to be a display of the set's strongest cards for constructed. But since WOTC has some promises they can break and some that they don't, we will see money at mythic and unnecessary rarity shifting. And to my best knowledge there is no fundamental difference between mythic and rare for limited. Mana cost is the fundamental knob for that.
Flavor is based on the storyline. There is no storyline for this set.
There's a huge difference between Mythic and Rare for limited. It means the difference between one copy of a card for a draft and 5-8 copies of it.
~~~~~~~~~
Too many to list efficiently. Find me online with the same SN if you want to play, or message me here to set up a time to play.
Modern
~~~~~~~~~
Whatever pile of 75 I throw together the night before without testing. Usually: :symb::symu::symg:
Reprint Opt for Modern!!
FREE DIG THOROUGH TIME!
PLAY MORE ROUGE DECKS!
Also if it is indeed meant to be drafted then it would have to have limited fodder of some sort. If the keep the rares and the mythics decent you may not mind of a few of the commons and uncommons are more geared towards the drafting aspect. Also path and bolt in the same set could make for some interesting limited matches.
24, because its the perfect drafting number. they said that over and over. thats why I think it will be drafted. they really stressed they are not making enough to reeeeeallllyyy dent prices so I suspect that stores will be getting, tops, 8 boxes or a single case.
If the set is limited allocated and stores aren't selling just drafting, expect a market flood with the next one.
UWRasputin DreamweaverUW
UWBSen TripletsUWB
Yes please!
Well, let's try to use some math on the numbers here. We're looking at 53 rares and 15 mythics in the set. The "rarity" of a mythic is 1 in 8 packs. So:
The chance you get a rare in a pack = 7/8
The chance you get a mythinc in a pack = 1/8
The chance of getting a specific rare (assuming it's a pack with a rare) = 1/53
The chance of getting a specific mythic (assuming it's a pack with a mythic) = 1/15
The chance of getting a specific rare (any pack) = 7/8 * 1/53 ~= 1.65%
The chance of getting a specific mythic (any pack) = 1/8 * 1/15 ~=0.83%
The chance to get an extra foil rare or a mythinc upps the odds a bit. Assuming the probability of getting any card of any rarity in foil is the same (we don't know this), assuming every pack has a foil (we know it's true), the chance of getting a specific card in foil is 1/229 ~= 0.43%. That is on top of the probabilities for normal rares.
Conclusion #1: Contrary to common misconception, a mythic is only twice as "rare" as a rare.
Conclusion #2: If my assumption about distribution of foils is correct, expect playsets of foil goyfs to flood ebay soon.
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Your math is consistent with mythic distribution in boxes