Out of the blackness and stench of the engulfing swamp emerged a shimmering figure. Only the splattered armor and ichor-stained sword hinted at the unfathomable evil the knight had just laid waste.
I'm somewhat revising my thoughts on 9 drops but 8's still seem better in a vacuum.
Any thoughts on that?
I think we can all agree it is not worth it to skip another drop just to get to 9. If you do get to 9 mana, I think the choice of whether to make an 8 or 9 drop depends on the board state. 8 has more pull your ass out of the fire kind of cards, like Platinum Emperion, Kederekt Leviathan, and Hoverguard Sweepers. Blazing Archon is the only card at 9 that I can think of that is like that. So I think it is better to go for 8's when you are behind and digging for a savior. On the other hand, 8 also has more blanks and cards that can straight up screw you, like Cognivore, Scornful Egotist, Denizen of the Deep, and Avatar of Slaughter. So when you are ahead or pretty much even, 9's are better.
I think we can all agree it is not worth it to skip another drop just to get to 9. If you do get to 9 mana, I think the choice of whether to make an 8 or 9 drop depends on the board state. 8 has more pull your ass out of the fire kind of cards, like Platinum Emperion, Kederekt Leviathan, and Hoverguard Sweepers. Blazing Archon is the only card at 9 that I can think of that is like that. So I think it is better to go for 8's when you are behind and digging for a savior. On the other hand, 8 also has more blanks and cards that can straight up screw you, like Cognivore, Scornful Egotist, Denizen of the Deep, and Avatar of Slaughter. So when you are ahead or pretty much even, 9's are better.
At nine you have Kuro, Pitlord if you have enough life, Blazing Archon or Bringer of the Red Dawn. For a 3/25 chance or a 4-12% chance of flipping an out depending on your life total and if you can wait a turn. The rest is good stuff with a large portion (5/25 being 'bad' either a mediocre bringer of the x dawn (white/blue/black), Leviathan, or sun crsuher).
Myojin (white and black) Slipstream Serpent (sometimes) Avatar of Slaughter (sometimes this is an instant win and sometimes an instant loss) Akron Legionnaire (although not that bad because you can usually force a trade)
1.12%-2.2% insta loss and 10.1% badstuff
A quick breakdown comparing:
9 Drops vs 8 Drops
Instant Outs: 4% vs 3.3%
(Near) Instant Wins: 0% vs 3.3%
Conditional Outs: 8% vs 11.3%
GameSwingers: 16%(huge fliers) vs 11.2%
Badstuff: 25% vs 10.1%
Instant loss: 0% vs 1.1-2.2%
Conclusion
9drops are marginally better but only if you already ahead on your board state because you have a higher likelyhood of just continually getting badstuff.
If I have the game locked at 8 with a stalemate, I start ramping to 10/12. You math shows 9 isn't as bad as I thought, but not good enough to really mess with.
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Out of the blackness and stench of the engulfing swamp emerged a shimmering figure. Only the splattered armor and ichor-stained sword hinted at the unfathomable evil the knight had just laid waste.
I honestly top out at 7 and sometimes venture past if I have a good board state. When I hit really good things at 7 (Like Platinum Angel or a Demon) my opponent will generally try to follow suit, which can end in disaster (I got a Platinum Angel, he gets a Phage on his turm hahaha)
Realistically he should only be unblockable without equipment
Guard 1: There goes a sword floating down the street!
Guard 2: Well, he's unblockable, so ignore it.
Eat your greens kids, omnath does, and it makes him strong....
The percentages for 8 and 9 may actually be a little bit different because the gatherer was defaulting me to cards printed in German. I'll redo it soon. The results were 89 and 25 total for 8 and 9 drops respectively while in actuality it is 105 and 30 respectively, I'll definitely redo it soon.
The percentages for 8 and 9 may actually be a little bit different because the gatherer was defaulting me to cards printed in German. I'll redo it soon. The results were 89 and 25 total for 8 and 9 drops respectively while in actuality it is 105 and 30 respectively, I'll definitely redo it soon.
There's actually only 103 8 drops; two of them are unhinged cards. Some thoughts on your previous post:
I am very surprised that you consider Bringer of the Blue Dawn "bad." The ability to continue to make drops while building to 11, 12, and eventually 15 drops can be VERY strong if you can survive more than a few turns. I also would not consider red bringer an "out" card. It really only helps you race except in specific situations like when you have a sac outlet. It's also worth noting that while you consider a 5/5 trample a bad creature, you left several creatures such as Thousand-legged Kami off your bad 8 drop list, and the difference between such a creature and a bad bringer is pretty negligible.
In regards to your instant out count, I think you should count Sanguine Praetor on the list of 8 drops, as we can assume you would be able to leave a swamp up if you are deciding between 8 and 9 drops. By that rationale Bloodfire Colossus could be an instant out as well, but we cannot assume you have both R and B to leave up, and in situations where Bloodfire would save you Kuro most likely would as well. So if you need an instant out, I would count the percentages at 3.9% for 8 drops (only counting either Praetor or Colossus), 3.3% for 9 drops if Kuro will not save you, and 6.7% if Kuro will save you. So if you need an out RIGHT NOW, figure out if Kuro will work and act accordingly. It's also occasionally relevant that Kederekt Leviathan is the only slam-bang, save you from anything creature on this list.
Overall, we seem to agree that 8 drops are usually better if you are behind, while 9's are better if you are ahead. If it is even, I think the decision is harder. 8 drops are more high risk, high reward, while 9 drops have a more consistent average power level and provide less "oops I win" or "oops I lose" moments.
There's actually only 103 8 drops; two of them are unhinged cards. Some thoughts on your previous post:
I am very surprised that you consider Bringer of the Blue Dawn "bad." The ability to continue to make drops while building to 11, 12, and eventually 15 drops can be VERY strong if you can survive more than a few turns. I also would not consider red bringer an "out" card. It really only helps you race except in specific situations like when you have a sac outlet. It's also worth noting that while you consider a 5/5 trample a bad creature, you left several creatures such as Thousand-legged Kami off your bad 8 drop list, and the difference between such a creature and a bad bringer is pretty negligible.
In regards to your instant out count, I think you should count Sanguine Praetor on the list of 8 drops, as we can assume you would be able to leave a swamp up if you are deciding between 8 and 9 drops. By that rationale Bloodfire Colossus could be an instant out as well, but we cannot assume you have both R and B to leave up, and in situations where Bloodfire would save you Kuro most likely would as well. So if you need an instant out, I would count the percentages at 3.9% for 8 drops (only counting either Praetor or Colossus), 3.3% for 9 drops if Kuro will not save you, and 6.7% if Kuro will save you. So if you need an out RIGHT NOW, figure out if Kuro will work and act accordingly. It's also occasionally relevant that Kederekt Leviathan is the only slam-bang, save you from anything creature on this list.
Overall, we seem to agree that 8 drops are usually better if you are behind, while 9's are better if you are ahead. If it is even, I think the decision is harder. 8 drops are more high risk, high reward, while 9 drops have a more consistent average power level and provide less "oops I win" or "oops I lose" moments.
Don't get me wrong I don't think bringer of the blue dawn is bad in an average game of Momir when you are even or ahead, however it can be pretty disappointing when your opponent has an overwhelming board position or has you on a <6 turn clock (the times when you would be trying to flip an out). Especially if they have some dumb thing like a darksteel colossus a bringer of the green dawn could by you some extra time against some ground monsters or red dawn could put him on just as tight of a clock and help unclutter the board. Its great if you can wait 6 turns to coin toss an emmy or 7 to get a Draco though. I have just lost so many games when I flipped nine repeatedly got bringer of the esper's dawn and then went back to 8 because my opponent got some monster like stormtide and they didn't really affect the board or do anything to his big monsters.
I counted bloodfire and sanguine predator as not instant outs in the case you are trying to answer a broken earlier drop (they exist) or something with higher toughness than 6 or you are on a reasonable clock 4-5 turns and are on 8 thinking of going to 9. I should probably classify it as etb outs.
Today because I have too much time I went through all of the CMC6+ creatures in magic (yes all 969) and am running some stats on them like flier percentages, etb outs, "sorcery outs", game swingers, wreck your boards, instant wins, and instant losses, blanks, and average dude size. Expect to see a write up tomorrow. I can also share the excel doc I am working out of in case you want to add something.
Primeval and their Wedge colored friends are some of the more powerful 6 drops just because they are 6/6.
It used to take 8+ mana to get a 5/5 flyer (shivan dragon being an exception) now we get 8/8 flyers for 8 (Avacyn)
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Out of the blackness and stench of the engulfing swamp emerged a shimmering figure. Only the splattered armor and ichor-stained sword hinted at the unfathomable evil the knight had just laid waste.
If I have 9 mana and I'm not horribly behind I make nines because the average 9 > the average 8, and the worst 10% is >>>>>>>> the worst 10% of 8'es. It's just in the top 10% of 8'es that are better than the top 10% of 9'es. 9>10 almost always, and if I'm playing vs emperion and I'm ahead on board go to 12'es. Because 12'es gives you blightsteel which doesn't care and it that betrays on a 2/3. If they sac lands to it that betrays you all of a sudden get to 15. Which is emrakul land. And for the love of god if you hit vorniclex don't go for 15'es, but rather go for 16'es and draco them out. I have had multiple games where opp hit multiple autchronchronchronchron wurms when they needed a flyer to stabalize, lost, and *****ed at me for getting unlucky when really they were just being a moron.
I wrote about a fair bit on this in an article on puremtgo recently. In general I think playing a 9 is better than 8 but not so much so that you should skip a drop. In other words if you have mana accel, an extra land or an extra card I would go for 9's. Just the number of flyers at nine is worth it. Also I will pretty much never play a 10. Theres only one real 10 that steals the game and it's a legend so you can wreck yourself that way. 2 of the 10s have upkeep costs and 1 is unblockable. The rest are mostly vanilla and 6/14 are legends. Broodstar also hurts even if you have a couple of artifacts.
Any thoughts on that?
I think we can all agree it is not worth it to skip another drop just to get to 9. If you do get to 9 mana, I think the choice of whether to make an 8 or 9 drop depends on the board state. 8 has more pull your ass out of the fire kind of cards, like Platinum Emperion, Kederekt Leviathan, and Hoverguard Sweepers. Blazing Archon is the only card at 9 that I can think of that is like that. So I think it is better to go for 8's when you are behind and digging for a savior. On the other hand, 8 also has more blanks and cards that can straight up screw you, like Cognivore, Scornful Egotist, Denizen of the Deep, and Avatar of Slaughter. So when you are ahead or pretty much even, 9's are better.
At nine you have Kuro, Pitlord if you have enough life, Blazing Archon or Bringer of the Red Dawn. For a 3/25 chance or a 4-12% chance of flipping an out depending on your life total and if you can wait a turn. The rest is good stuff with a large portion (5/25 being 'bad' either a mediocre bringer of the x dawn (white/blue/black), Leviathan, or sun crsuher).
At 8 you do have a ton of outs:
- Kederek Leviathan
- HoverGaurd Sweepers
- Platinum Emperion
- Avatar of Woe
- Sanguine Predator
- BloodFire Colossus
- Bosh, Iron Golem
- Avacyn Angel of Hope
- Emperical Archangel
- Living Inferno
- Lorthos, the freshmaker
- Scourge of Kher
- Stormtide Leviathan
(Depending)But you only have a 3.3-4.5% chance at an instant out.
But you have an additional 10.1% of hitting an out that you can use next turn.
In conclusion if you need an out NOW it is better to hit 9 but if you can wait a couple turns it might be better to flip an 8.
Also on 8 you have a 3.3% of hitting either an instant or I win next turn guy:
If that weren't enough you also have an 11.2% chance at getting some game-swingy cards that put a heavy clock on your oppnent or put him far behind:
- Silver Sepheraph
- Sisters of Stone Death
(mana permiting)- Terestadon
- Sphinx of the Steel Winds
- Petradon
- Pestilence Demon
(mana permiting)As for duds I would be dissapointed to hit:
Myojin (white and black)
Slipstream Serpent (sometimes)
Avatar of Slaughter (sometimes this is an instant win and sometimes an instant loss)
Akron Legionnaire (although not that bad because you can usually force a trade)
1.12%-2.2% insta loss and 10.1% badstuff
A quick breakdown comparing:
9 Drops vs 8 Drops
Instant Outs: 4% vs 3.3%
(Near) Instant Wins: 0% vs 3.3%
Conditional Outs: 8% vs 11.3%
GameSwingers: 16%(huge fliers) vs 11.2%
Badstuff: 25% vs 10.1%
Instant loss: 0% vs 1.1-2.2%
Conclusion
9drops are marginally better but only if you already ahead on your board state because you have a higher likelyhood of just continually getting badstuff.
Come help me make my Pauper cube awsome!
There's actually only 103 8 drops; two of them are unhinged cards. Some thoughts on your previous post:
I am very surprised that you consider Bringer of the Blue Dawn "bad." The ability to continue to make drops while building to 11, 12, and eventually 15 drops can be VERY strong if you can survive more than a few turns. I also would not consider red bringer an "out" card. It really only helps you race except in specific situations like when you have a sac outlet. It's also worth noting that while you consider a 5/5 trample a bad creature, you left several creatures such as Thousand-legged Kami off your bad 8 drop list, and the difference between such a creature and a bad bringer is pretty negligible.
In regards to your instant out count, I think you should count Sanguine Praetor on the list of 8 drops, as we can assume you would be able to leave a swamp up if you are deciding between 8 and 9 drops. By that rationale Bloodfire Colossus could be an instant out as well, but we cannot assume you have both R and B to leave up, and in situations where Bloodfire would save you Kuro most likely would as well. So if you need an instant out, I would count the percentages at 3.9% for 8 drops (only counting either Praetor or Colossus), 3.3% for 9 drops if Kuro will not save you, and 6.7% if Kuro will save you. So if you need an out RIGHT NOW, figure out if Kuro will work and act accordingly. It's also occasionally relevant that Kederekt Leviathan is the only slam-bang, save you from anything creature on this list.
Overall, we seem to agree that 8 drops are usually better if you are behind, while 9's are better if you are ahead. If it is even, I think the decision is harder. 8 drops are more high risk, high reward, while 9 drops have a more consistent average power level and provide less "oops I win" or "oops I lose" moments.
Don't get me wrong I don't think bringer of the blue dawn is bad in an average game of Momir when you are even or ahead, however it can be pretty disappointing when your opponent has an overwhelming board position or has you on a <6 turn clock (the times when you would be trying to flip an out). Especially if they have some dumb thing like a darksteel colossus a bringer of the green dawn could by you some extra time against some ground monsters or red dawn could put him on just as tight of a clock and help unclutter the board. Its great if you can wait 6 turns to coin toss an emmy or 7 to get a Draco though. I have just lost so many games when I flipped nine repeatedly got bringer of the esper's dawn and then went back to 8 because my opponent got some monster like stormtide and they didn't really affect the board or do anything to his big monsters.
I counted bloodfire and sanguine predator as not instant outs in the case you are trying to answer a broken earlier drop (they exist) or something with higher toughness than 6 or you are on a reasonable clock 4-5 turns and are on 8 thinking of going to 9. I should probably classify it as etb outs.
Today because I have too much time I went through all of the CMC6+ creatures in magic (yes all 969) and am running some stats on them like flier percentages, etb outs, "sorcery outs", game swingers, wreck your boards, instant wins, and instant losses, blanks, and average dude size. Expect to see a write up tomorrow. I can also share the excel doc I am working out of in case you want to add something.
It used to take 8+ mana to get a 5/5 flyer (shivan dragon being an exception) now we get 8/8 flyers for 8 (Avacyn)
This is my theory on drops higher than 8.
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