The other week at my LGS I ended up drafting a mostly green splash blue deck. I picked up 2 lay of the lands late in pack 1 and pack 2 to allow me to be even more sparse with my blue sources in case I got a howl.
The howl never came but I ended up with an ubsurd deck including 3 tuskers and 3 baloths. I decided to cut lands for the lay of the land and instead of running 17 lands I ran 12 forest 3 island 2 lays. I was "splashing" 2 divinations and an air servant. My theory was that the lays would cut the lands from the deck making the draw power from my divinations even more effective.
I realize that there have been statistical analysis done that say that fetch lands/evolving wilds does little to aid to the quality of the draws.
My question: Is it reasonable to cut lands for lay on a 1:1 basis for the purpose of fixing mana or is it a tactical mistake?
I think I'd replace two lands with Lay of the Land in your case. But I'd probably not play 3 Islands in that case, not with two Tuskers. 2 Islands + 2 Lay should be plenty, imo.
In other words, I wouldn't play Lay for the "thinning" effect, but for increasing my odds of hitting tusker turn 2 and still have decent amount of blue mana.
In a heavy Green deck, you can replace at least 1 land because the odds of you drawing a 1 Lay of the Land, 1 non-Forest opening hand are quite low.
The problem when you start replacing multiple lands is that your odds of a bad draw steadily increase. Now you might draw 2 Lays and no lands (might have been a keeper if you just played Forests instead) or increased chance of 1 Lay + 1 non-Forest.
So I think in a heavy Green deck (almost Mono) you can use the first Lay to replace a land, but not the second before you start screwing up your draws.
There are other issues here like splashing for Divination which doesn't sound right to me. Air Servant, sure.
So I think in a heavy Green deck (almost Mono) you can use the first Lay to replace a land, but not the second before you start screwing up your draws.
I know it is slightly different, but I know Brian from Limited Resources has mentioned that he tries to run 2-4 lay of the lands and significantly reduced lands for them in the Mono G deck.
Once you add splashing, it gets more iffy, but I don't think it is too risky as long as you are still running... say 12ish Forests
I started off trying to draft mono blue control (so much fun !). I took the divinations and an elixir fairly early pack 1 and didn't see much payoff, and switched to green when I saw a fairly late baloth. Of course it's not ideal to splash a divination, but I was crimped with a shortage of playables due to mixed signals and a late switch.
My deck definitely had some problems and wasn't perfect. I probably made quite a few draft mistakes as well. I'm not a professional. My LGS runs draft as FNM and so "crosses streams" so it is easy to play 4 rounds with a top 8 cut. I would have definitely won my pod, but struggled against the truly insane decks out the in the top 4.
Another problem with multiples is that while Lay improves your future draws, it doesn't actually refill your hand. So even if you have the Forest, and 3 Lays, you can spend GGG to thin your deck but you spent 3 mana to wind up in the same situation as if you just had 4 lands in your opening hand. How many games do you need more than 1 Lay of the Land? Usually 1 is good enough to fix whatever mana issue you're dealing with. The rest become cards that cycle for G but only cycle into lands! Not a good deal.
Carpe: There's a 6.35% chance you'll draw no Forests if you have 12 in your deck.
Chances you draw 1 and no Lays (assuming 4 in your deck): 8.66%
Together (as they are mutually exclusive), you have almost exactly a 15% chance to draw a hand that has 1 or fewer land and no Lays.
I don't like those odds.
Hmm, perhaps it needs to be higher... shrug... I wish I knew where that decklist picture was so I could link it. I still like running a bunch but maybe it really only works in basically mono g.
Another problem with multiples is that while Lay improves your future draws, it doesn't actually refill your hand. So even if you have the Forest, and 3 Lays, you can spend GGG to thin your deck but you spent 3 mana to wind up in the same situation as if you just had 4 lands in your opening hand. How many games do you need more than 1 Lay of the Land? Usually 1 is good enough to fix whatever mana issue you're dealing with. The rest become cards that cycle for G but only cycle into lands! Not a good deal.
I generally like cutting lands for lay to a certain degree in mono green decks. I probably wouldn't opt for 1:1 or 1:2. Probably closer to 2:3 for me.
That said, yes you can do it, but you need to be super heavy green (like you were).
2:3 sounds good to me. As for his deck, I would have definitely run another Forest, especially with a 7 mana spell in his deck. Also, I've learned that Howl of the Night Pack is not as good as it was in the other Limited format. It still is decent, but not even close to bomb status.
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Legacy - Sneak Show, BR Reanimator, Miracles, UW Stoneblade
Premodern - Trix, RecSur, Enchantress, Reanimator, Elves https://www.facebook.com/groups/PremodernUSA/ Modern - Neobrand, Hogaak Vine, Elves
Standard - Mono Red (6-2 and 5-3 in 2 McQ)
Draft - (I wish I had more time for limited...)
Commander - Norin the Wary, Grimgrin, Adun Oakenshield (taking forever to build) (dead format for me)
The howl never came but I ended up with an ubsurd deck including 3 tuskers and 3 baloths. I decided to cut lands for the lay of the land and instead of running 17 lands I ran 12 forest 3 island 2 lays. I was "splashing" 2 divinations and an air servant. My theory was that the lays would cut the lands from the deck making the draw power from my divinations even more effective.
I realize that there have been statistical analysis done that say that fetch lands/evolving wilds does little to aid to the quality of the draws.
My question: Is it reasonable to cut lands for lay on a 1:1 basis for the purpose of fixing mana or is it a tactical mistake?
If you have an otherwise fast deck (and that does not sound like the case here), it might work.
That said, yes you can do it, but you need to be super heavy green (like you were).
In other words, I wouldn't play Lay for the "thinning" effect, but for increasing my odds of hitting tusker turn 2 and still have decent amount of blue mana.
The problem when you start replacing multiple lands is that your odds of a bad draw steadily increase. Now you might draw 2 Lays and no lands (might have been a keeper if you just played Forests instead) or increased chance of 1 Lay + 1 non-Forest.
So I think in a heavy Green deck (almost Mono) you can use the first Lay to replace a land, but not the second before you start screwing up your draws.
There are other issues here like splashing for Divination which doesn't sound right to me. Air Servant, sure.
I know it is slightly different, but I know Brian from Limited Resources has mentioned that he tries to run 2-4 lay of the lands and significantly reduced lands for them in the Mono G deck.
Once you add splashing, it gets more iffy, but I don't think it is too risky as long as you are still running... say 12ish Forests
My deck definitely had some problems and wasn't perfect. I probably made quite a few draft mistakes as well. I'm not a professional. My LGS runs draft as FNM and so "crosses streams" so it is easy to play 4 rounds with a top 8 cut. I would have definitely won my pod, but struggled against the truly insane decks out the in the top 4.
Chances you draw 1 and no Lays (assuming 4 in your deck): 8.66%
Together (as they are mutually exclusive), you have almost exactly a 15% chance to draw a hand that has 1 or fewer land and no Lays.
I don't like those odds.
Hmm, perhaps it needs to be higher... shrug... I wish I knew where that decklist picture was so I could link it. I still like running a bunch but maybe it really only works in basically mono g.
Agreed on probably only 1 for fixing.
2:3 sounds good to me. As for his deck, I would have definitely run another Forest, especially with a 7 mana spell in his deck. Also, I've learned that Howl of the Night Pack is not as good as it was in the other Limited format. It still is decent, but not even close to bomb status.
Premodern - Trix, RecSur, Enchantress, Reanimator, Elves https://www.facebook.com/groups/PremodernUSA/
Modern - Neobrand, Hogaak Vine, Elves
Standard - Mono Red (6-2 and 5-3 in 2 McQ)
Draft - (I wish I had more time for limited...)
Commander -
Norin the Wary, Grimgrin, Adun Oakenshield (taking forever to build)(dead format for me)And what is the chance that you draw 1 or fewer Forests if you have 13 or 14 in your deck?