Shambleshark is not going to wheel at this table. If we shoot for Simic and miss, both our other possible guilds are in the last pack, so there's a big potential upside and not much downside.
On that note, I'm curious as to why you're certain that Shambleshark won't wheel back to us. At the very least, I highly doubt it will be taken by the people to our right. It could be a 4th to 8th pick for someone else, but there's other pickable cards here too. I get the feeling that the odds are in our favor.
Whether or not it worked does not validate the play. That's hindsight probability. Let's say I offered you a bet -- I'm going to flip a coin and if it's heads, I'll give you 1 dollar but if it's tails, you'll give me 2 dollars. This is obviously a terrible bet for you. Accepting it is a bad decision. You can't justify it afterwards by arguing that you won the flip, therefore you made the right decision.
Signalling is like farting: it's a natural thing that helps people avoid being where you are, and if you try to do it deliberately, things turn to crap fast.
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I hereby found the American Chapter of the Zealots of Semantics. All glory to The Curmudgeon.
Taking a weaker card because a stronger one might wheel is ludicrous.
The pick here should be Shambleshark, and the only other reasonable pick is Angelic Edict, from where I'm sitting.
Shambleshark is stronger, but not by a lot, and Metropolis Sprite is still good for us to have. And it's not ludicrous. I've done the exact same thing in GTC x3 and I've seen many more Sharks wheel than Sprites because more decks want Sprites than Sharks.
That said, I realize this is not GTC x3, but the conditions aren't far off. And it's quite likely that Simic is not favored by at least half of the drafters at this table, considering the picks we've previously had.
Whether or not it worked does not validate the play. That's hindsight probability. Let's say I offered you a bet -- I'm going to flip a coin and if it's heads, I'll give you 1 dollar but if it's tails, you'll give me 2 dollars. This is obviously a terrible bet for you. Accepting it is a bad decision. You can't justify it afterwards by arguing that you won the flip, therefore you made the right decision.
I do like Slaughterhorn and Rogue is way harder on the mana, but this format is all about evasion. Rogue is still very good if we have to wait a bit to cast it.
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(I'm on on this site much anymore. If you want to get in touch it's probably best to email me: dom@heffalumps.org)
Forum Awards: Best Writer 2005, Best Limited Strategist 2005-2012
5CB PotM - June 2005, November 2005, February 2006, April 2008, May 2008, Feb 2009
MTGSalvation Articles: 1-20, plus guest appearance on MTGCast #86!
<Limited Clan>
Whether we end up having more evolve or more tokens, it is absolutely horrible when cast against us. We have the chance to be just as horrible to anyone else who cuts us off cards. Its a nice swingy card in its own right that can flat out win you games. I like Slaughterhorn, but not as much as I like bouncing my opponents alpha strike.
slaughterhorn. It's a lot easier than the rogue on mana (relevant given how we probably want to splash summoner and have 0 fixing), and is just more consistent than aetherize (which sometimes could be a blowout, other times sit in your hand doing nothing).
Simic needs to be aggro to win game, especially with our current deck. The rogue gives us reach, but the mana would be awful. I think we need to take the slaughterhorn. Also, by taking horn we entirely remove green from the pack.
Slaughterhorn, I guess? I'm torn between that and the Deathcult Rogue. Taking Slaughterhorn sends a stronger signal, though, cutting out all mono-green.
I would take Slaughterhorn. Solid beater, or a nice boost to another solid beater. Much easier to cast than Rogue. Cutting green out of the pile is cool.
Whether or not it worked does not validate the play. That's hindsight probability. Let's say I offered you a bet -- I'm going to flip a coin and if it's heads, I'll give you 1 dollar but if it's tails, you'll give me 2 dollars. This is obviously a terrible bet for you. Accepting it is a bad decision. You can't justify it afterwards by arguing that you won the flip, therefore you made the right decision.
Deathcult Rogue has been amazing for me in limited and it's no exaggeration that it wins games. Yes, it's harder on mana than Slaughterhorn may be, but it's a far superior card. Overall I think we'd be a lot better off with it.
Easy Slaughterhorn, IMO. Basilica guards won't get played if we're base-Simic, and if Simic is cut off in this pack, we should drop blue like a hot potato and plan for Selesnya in pack 3.
Deathcult Rogue is the only U or W card here that might arguably be better than Slaughterhorn anyway, and even if it is better (not entirely clear) it's not by enough to make up for the added value of taking a green card (which we're 100% likely to play).
Rogue is more powerful, but CC is out of reach for us... or at least a biiig gamble. I'm happy taking the Slaughterhorn and dreaming of a quick aerial smashing.
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My helpy helpdesk of helpfulness.
My Decks: EDH: Sygg, River Cutthroat , Road to Scion
Grimgrin, Corpseborn Modern: Polytokes IRL: Progenitus Polymorph , Goblins
Totally Lost is quasi-removal but expensive. Disciple a much-needed two drop but without red mana just an ordinary bear. I would take Assault Griffin for its evasion.
On that note, I'm curious as to why you're certain that Shambleshark won't wheel back to us. At the very least, I highly doubt it will be taken by the people to our right. It could be a 4th to 8th pick for someone else, but there's other pickable cards here too. I get the feeling that the odds are in our favor.
The pick here should be Shambleshark, and the only other reasonable pick is Angelic Edict, from where I'm sitting.
:dance:Fact or Fiction of the [Limited] Clan:dance:
Shambleshark is stronger, but not by a lot, and Metropolis Sprite is still good for us to have. And it's not ludicrous. I've done the exact same thing in GTC x3 and I've seen many more Sharks wheel than Sprites because more decks want Sprites than Sharks.
That said, I realize this is not GTC x3, but the conditions aren't far off. And it's quite likely that Simic is not favored by at least half of the drafters at this table, considering the picks we've previously had.
It's not even close to being a ludicrous notion.
Edict is my pick.
1 Trostani's Summoner
1 Haazda Snare Squad
2 Beetleform Mage
1 Unflinching Courage
1 Hallowed Fountain
1 Species Gorger
1 Mending Touch
1 Maze Sentinel
1 Plasm Capture
1 Sunspire Gatekeepers
1 Maze Behemoth
1 Lyev Decree
1 Hidden Strings
1 Restore the Peace
1 Shambleshark
P2P2:
Mark your pick by either bolding it or putting it in Quote tags.
Next pick will be tomorrow (unless there is clear consensus, in which case I might post the next pick earlier). Have fun!
My only doubt is with Ætherize, i like it very much, but our decks is going in a different direction...
- L
"The problem isn't when Scissors says Rock is overpowered, it's when Paper says it is."
-Mark Rosewater
I do like Slaughterhorn and Rogue is way harder on the mana, but this format is all about evasion. Rogue is still very good if we have to wait a bit to cast it.
(I'm on on this site much anymore. If you want to get in touch it's probably best to email me: dom@heffalumps.org)
Forum Awards: Best Writer 2005, Best Limited Strategist 2005-2012
5CB PotM - June 2005, November 2005, February 2006, April 2008, May 2008, Feb 2009
MTGSalvation Articles: 1-20, plus guest appearance on MTGCast #86!
<Limited Clan>
Whether we end up having more evolve or more tokens, it is absolutely horrible when cast against us. We have the chance to be just as horrible to anyone else who cuts us off cards. Its a nice swingy card in its own right that can flat out win you games. I like Slaughterhorn, but not as much as I like bouncing my opponents alpha strike.
sidenote: we have a decent chance of wheeling aetherize, but this doesn't look like a deck that we'd want it in.
Draft my cube! (630 cards)
2nd place behind Paulo after round 3 of Pro Tour M15
(finished 8-8, but beat Alexander Hayne and Ben Stark)
Deathcult Rogue is the only U or W card here that might arguably be better than Slaughterhorn anyway, and even if it is better (not entirely clear) it's not by enough to make up for the added value of taking a green card (which we're 100% likely to play).
My Decks:
EDH: Sygg, River Cutthroat , Road to Scion
Grimgrin, Corpseborn
Modern: Polytokes
IRL: Progenitus Polymorph , Goblins
Just a friendly reminder that I will drive this car off a bridge
1 Trostani's Summoner
1 Haazda Snare Squad
2 Beetleform Mage
1 Unflinching Courage
1 Hallowed Fountain
1 Species Gorger
1 Mending Touch
1 Maze Sentinel
1 Plasm Capture
1 Sunspire Gatekeepers
1 Maze Behemoth
1 Lyev Decree
1 Hidden Strings
1 Restore the Peace
1 Shambleshark
1 Slaughterhorn
P2P3:
Mark your pick by either bolding it or putting it in Quote tags.
Next pick will be tomorrow (unless there is clear consensus, in which case I might post the next pick earlier). Have fun!
Assault Griffin
So Pro I have an alpha Volcanic Island