Just wanted to get some feedback on something with you guys, but is it just me or is there often a clear lack of signalling in swiss queues vs. the other queues? I have played a fair amount of all 3 of the different queues and I seem to get frustrated much more regularly when drafting in the swiss queues. I feel the gameplay and skill level on average is pretty much the same regardless of queues, despite what many of you on here might think (i.e., 8-4s being the best), but the difference is in the drafting style, IMO. Is it just a function of people drafting a little bit more loosely in swiss because it's more casual and no matter what happens you will get to play 3 matches? That's my theory, anyway.
I hear this theory from time to time, and I would really like to see some proof or some reliable examples. (Something that happened once is irrelevant.)
I can believe that signaling in 8-4 could be better, because the players are better and less likely to shift around colors for no good reason. But I've been playing Swiss for a long time and I don't think that the signals are reliably bad.
Of course there's no baseline for signals. Sometimes the packs are just weird, or players were right to change colors. How do you account for that?
I pretty much exclusively Swiss draft and I don't think the signalling is bad typically. Once in a while you get an ubernoob and/or raredrafters that can screw the thing up though. Less raredrafting is going to happen in 8-4.
It's not like people are taking Drainpipe Vermin over Dead Reveler. But sometimes you pass all the white cards in the world in pack 1, and get them passed right back at you in pack 2. This is irritating, but when it happens you should realize that the person to your right is irritated in exactly the same way as you are, so you don't really have a leg to stand on here.
I notice the drafting difference in Swiss and 8-4. In 8-4, you're going to see Deathrite Shaman, Shocklands and Guild Mythics go until turns 3-5. You rarely see that in Swiss. I see a lot of people in Swiss running 4 color decks, double color splash cards. You can kind of tell that person flubbed up their draft and the table a bit. No big deal tho. You get better by playing. Every once in a while those atrocious piles work perfectly and then boom boom bombs a dropping from 4 odd colors. Doesn't seem to happen that often tho.
Less experienced players are often far more reluctant to switch plan based on signals. So you get a situation where they P1P1 a Dreadbore and then think they're in Rakdos pretty much regardless of what you pass them.
You also have to be careful late in a season (like now with 3x RtR) when you see a card that shouldn't be there that late. Ask yourself how easy that card is to evaluate. It may have been passed by someone who's in those colours but doesn't know the format.
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Forum Awards: Best Writer 2005, Best Limited Strategist 2005-2012
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<Limited Clan>
Not your imagination. Swiss drafts tend to be more of a mess than 8-4s. I think its purely a measure of advanced player skill in 8-4s compared to swiss for the reasons mentioned above.
Less experienced players are often far more reluctant to switch plan based on signals. So you get a situation where they P1P1 a Dreadbore and then think they're in Rakdos pretty much regardless of what you pass them.
You can also have more experienced players be more reluctant to switch plans, as they think apparent signals are less likely to be real. So it becomes a self-fulfullling prophecy.
I see a lot of people in Swiss running 4 color decks, double color splash cards.
Honestly I've never seen this. Maybe once a season do I play against such an atrocious deck. I've seen some questionable 23rd cards or odd splashes, which indicate a failed draft plan, but nothing as extreme as you're saying you've seen "a lot of people" doing.
Also let's not forget a fundamental rule of signaling: it's much more important to read signals than send them. Trying to send signals is a dangerous game. You're making the sacrifice in advance and hoping for a reward. If you just focus on reading signals, you'll still send signals naturally. Comments like "I passed all the White, and then got it right back" make me wonder -- why didn't you just take the White in the first place? If it's because you wanted to send signals -- see dangerous game above. If it's because the White wasn't that great and there were better colors, well guess what, those White cards that didn't entice you didn't entice your neighbor either!
Comments like "I passed all the White, and then got it right back" make me wonder -- why didn't you just take the White in the first place? If it's because you wanted to send signals -- see dangerous game above. If it's because the White wasn't that great and there were better colors, well guess what, those White cards that didn't entice you didn't entice your neighbor either!
Now you're the one oversimplifying. Usually, the case is that I've taken some Rakdos or Izzet cards and then see good Rakdos and X and keep on the Rakdos plan and for some reason the people downstream didn't see that X was open.
What annoys me is when people splash key cards of other deck. It's not an entirely bad strategy, just a little bad and a lot of frustrating. For example, recently I played against Golgari deck that splashed white for 2 call of the conclave, while I was drafting the populate deck. 3/3/ for 2 are always good, but as a splash, the chance of playing them turn 2 is much lower and it annoyed the heck out of me. I'd have love those! :-|
I'm not very good at reading signals but I'd say that in 8-4 queues they are obvious 25% of the time, whereas they are obvious in swiss queues only 10% of the time. That probably means that the less obvious signals are more present in 8-4 queues also, but I never pick up on them.
The thing I notice much more frequently in 8-4 queues is that the packs deplete of good cards much more frequently usually than they do in swiss. If every pack has on average, say, 6 good cards in it, then those 6 good cards are almost always gone by pick 7 in 8-4 queues. In swiss, gems will float a while longer.
My least favorite experience in a draft is to make what I believe are the correct drafting choices, but find that none of the packs have really strong cards, so I end up with a fine deck built out of reasonable cards, but nothing really amazing. Then inevitably I face the person who was in the same colors as me but got all of the bombs that I didn't get. That happens just as often in swiss as it does in 8-4.
Honestly I've never seen this. Maybe once a season do I play against such an atrocious deck. I've seen some questionable 23rd cards or odd splashes, which indicate a failed draft plan, but nothing as extreme as you're saying you've seen "a lot of people" doing.
It's happened a few times this week, but I draft a lot and I may also be remembering Sealed pools as well.
I just finished a Swiss draft and did not have any terribly outlandish opponents. It's not a given occurrence, just something I seem to notice.
I get a great deal of pleasure when the following occurs:
- I draft the best avenue open to me, but end up with a merely average pool
- I tune it as closely as I am able
- I smash the loose deck in my colors that opened the P1P1 Vraska/Rats/[Insert favorite bomb here] and parked in those colors despite the lack of reasonable quality flowing to them.
Frequently accompanied by a rage quit because I'm a lucksack for curving out. That part is less fun.
I will say, though, that i find myself not paying 'signals' any real attention in pack one. I will jump in pack two if an unexpected color starts flowing...but I don't trust Swiss signals early on.
This is why I don't played Sealed. It's like playing softball to get better at baseball...helpful to a point, but once you reach a certain level of skill, it might actually be detrimental because they do have their own unique quirks.
I think that the difference between Swiss and 8-4 is real, but usually overstated and usually believed to be greater than it really is due to confirmation bias. People read powerful limited cards going late in 8-4's as aberrations or signs that the pack must have been really strong while interpreting any card that's in a pack a bit latish or any odd-seeming color distributions in Swiss as a sign that Swiss players don't know what they're doing. Nothing for us P2P4 in a Swiss draft? It's because Swiss players don't know how to read signals. Nothing for us P2P4 in an 8-4? Eh, it happens.
The thing that I think is key is that while the average signal level (and skill level in general) might be higher in 8-4's and 8-4's might have somewhat fewer players who are total messes or extremely inexperienced, the overlap in the bell curves is HUGE.
I think that the difference between Swiss and 8-4 is real, but usually overstated and usually believed to be greater than it really is due to confirmation bias. People read powerful limited cards going late in 8-4's as aberrations or signs that the pack must have been really strong while interpreting any card that's in a pack a bit latish or any odd-seeming color distributions in Swiss as a sign that Swiss players don't know what they're doing. Nothing for us P2P4 in a Swiss draft? It's because Swiss players don't know how to read signals. Nothing for us P2P4 in an 8-4? Eh, it happens.
The thing that I think is key is that while the average signal level (and skill level in general) might be higher in 8-4's and 8-4's might have somewhat fewer players who are total messes or extremely inexperienced, the overlap in the bell curves is HUGE.
Ding ding ding. Was going to make the exact same point about confirmation bias. Not that it's feasible, but I genuinely suspect that if we could do an experiment where people could draft repeatedly without knowing whether it was 8-4 or Swiss, they wouldn't be able to consistently guess which one they'd played after the fact.
That said, part of the issue is that it really only takes 1-2 players to completely bork a draft table. The effect snowballs as people who know what they're doing keep needing to switch colors late or just throw up their hands and raredraft, increasing the confusion.
I did a draft yesterday in a 4322 where my first two picks were vitu ghazi guildmages. I don't care what is passed to me after that, I'm Selesnya at that point. I had some decent seles pulls the first pack, and pack 2, really nothing (minus a sphinx's revelation p1, $$$). So the guy I was passing to pack 1 was forcing it, even with me pulling it. I ended up winning the draft, and played two atrocious forced selesnya decks round 1 and 2. Of course, I forced it too, but for good reason Anyway, I don't think this would have happened in an 8-4.
I can believe that signaling in 8-4 could be better, because the players are better and less likely to shift around colors for no good reason. But I've been playing Swiss for a long time and I don't think that the signals are reliably bad.
Of course there's no baseline for signals. Sometimes the packs are just weird, or players were right to change colors. How do you account for that?
LISTEN TO MAH SONGZ!
@BillyTheFridge
You also have to be careful late in a season (like now with 3x RtR) when you see a card that shouldn't be there that late. Ask yourself how easy that card is to evaluate. It may have been passed by someone who's in those colours but doesn't know the format.
(I'm on on this site much anymore. If you want to get in touch it's probably best to email me: dom@heffalumps.org)
Forum Awards: Best Writer 2005, Best Limited Strategist 2005-2012
5CB PotM - June 2005, November 2005, February 2006, April 2008, May 2008, Feb 2009
MTGSalvation Articles: 1-20, plus guest appearance on MTGCast #86!
<Limited Clan>
Standard:
RW Boros devotion/Purphoros combo
RGB Jund Midrange
Modern:
WB Martyr.proc
You can also have more experienced players be more reluctant to switch plans, as they think apparent signals are less likely to be real. So it becomes a self-fulfullling prophecy.
Practice for Khans of Tarkir Limited:
Draft: (#1) (#2) (#3) (#4) (#5)
Honestly I've never seen this. Maybe once a season do I play against such an atrocious deck. I've seen some questionable 23rd cards or odd splashes, which indicate a failed draft plan, but nothing as extreme as you're saying you've seen "a lot of people" doing.
Also let's not forget a fundamental rule of signaling: it's much more important to read signals than send them. Trying to send signals is a dangerous game. You're making the sacrifice in advance and hoping for a reward. If you just focus on reading signals, you'll still send signals naturally. Comments like "I passed all the White, and then got it right back" make me wonder -- why didn't you just take the White in the first place? If it's because you wanted to send signals -- see dangerous game above. If it's because the White wasn't that great and there were better colors, well guess what, those White cards that didn't entice you didn't entice your neighbor either!
Now you're the one oversimplifying. Usually, the case is that I've taken some Rakdos or Izzet cards and then see good Rakdos and X and keep on the Rakdos plan and for some reason the people downstream didn't see that X was open.
What annoys me is when people splash key cards of other deck. It's not an entirely bad strategy, just a little bad and a lot of frustrating. For example, recently I played against Golgari deck that splashed white for 2 call of the conclave, while I was drafting the populate deck. 3/3/ for 2 are always good, but as a splash, the chance of playing them turn 2 is much lower and it annoyed the heck out of me. I'd have love those! :-|
The thing I notice much more frequently in 8-4 queues is that the packs deplete of good cards much more frequently usually than they do in swiss. If every pack has on average, say, 6 good cards in it, then those 6 good cards are almost always gone by pick 7 in 8-4 queues. In swiss, gems will float a while longer.
My least favorite experience in a draft is to make what I believe are the correct drafting choices, but find that none of the packs have really strong cards, so I end up with a fine deck built out of reasonable cards, but nothing really amazing. Then inevitably I face the person who was in the same colors as me but got all of the bombs that I didn't get. That happens just as often in swiss as it does in 8-4.
I just finished a Swiss draft and did not have any terribly outlandish opponents. It's not a given occurrence, just something I seem to notice.
LISTEN TO MAH SONGZ!
@BillyTheFridge
- I draft the best avenue open to me, but end up with a merely average pool
- I tune it as closely as I am able
- I smash the loose deck in my colors that opened the P1P1 Vraska/Rats/[Insert favorite bomb here] and parked in those colors despite the lack of reasonable quality flowing to them.
Frequently accompanied by a rage quit because I'm a lucksack for curving out. That part is less fun.
I will say, though, that i find myself not paying 'signals' any real attention in pack one. I will jump in pack two if an unexpected color starts flowing...but I don't trust Swiss signals early on.
~M
I know what you mean on remembering sealed pools. That happens to me at times too. I must say, I HATE the signals in those things.
This is why I don't played Sealed. It's like playing softball to get better at baseball...helpful to a point, but once you reach a certain level of skill, it might actually be detrimental because they do have their own unique quirks.
The thing that I think is key is that while the average signal level (and skill level in general) might be higher in 8-4's and 8-4's might have somewhat fewer players who are total messes or extremely inexperienced, the overlap in the bell curves is HUGE.
Ding ding ding. Was going to make the exact same point about confirmation bias. Not that it's feasible, but I genuinely suspect that if we could do an experiment where people could draft repeatedly without knowing whether it was 8-4 or Swiss, they wouldn't be able to consistently guess which one they'd played after the fact.
That said, part of the issue is that it really only takes 1-2 players to completely bork a draft table. The effect snowballs as people who know what they're doing keep needing to switch colors late or just throw up their hands and raredraft, increasing the confusion.
Standard:
RW Boros devotion/Purphoros combo
RGB Jund Midrange
Modern:
WB Martyr.proc