Chariot and Ajani's Presence seem good too, but this card can just be a huge blowout.
Pack 1 pick 2:
Aerial Formation
Magma Spray
Eagle of the Watch
Pharika's Chosen
Thassa's Devourer
Gluttonous Cyclops
Sigiled Starfish
Starfall
Cruel Feeding
--> Mogis's Warhound
Strength from the Fallen
Eidolon of Rhetoric
Temple of Epiphany
Island
Eh, this pack was close. I need Warhounds for Block constructed anyway.
Pack 1 pick 3:
Lightning Diadem
Lagonna-Band Trailblazer
Market Festival
Rotted Hulk
Pensive Minotaur
Dreadbringer Lampads
Supply-Line Cranes
Oakheart Dryads (FOIL)
Desecration Plague
Ritual of the Returned
--> Blinding Flare
Swarmborn Giant
Forest
Dryads were tempting too.
Pack 1 pick 4:
--> Aerial Formation
Eagle of the Watch
Font of Fertility
Pharika's Chosen
Thassa's Devourer
Gluttonous Cyclops
Starfall
Cruel Feeding
Dakra Mystic
Triton Cavalry
Dictate of Karametra
Swamp
Lots of blue. Might as well consider it.
Pack 1 pick 5:
Akroan Mastiff
Nyx Infusion
Godhunter Octopus
--> Sigiled Skink (FOIL)
Font of Vigor
Flamespeaker's Will
Cast into Darkness
Oreskos Swiftclaw
Triton Shorestalker
Thoughtrender Lamia
Island
Pack 1 pick 6:
Satyr Hoplite
Akroan Mastiff
Font of Return
Flamespeaker's Will
Aspect of Gorgon
Oppressive Rays
Renowned Weaver
--> Bassara Tower Archer
Strength from the Fallen
Forest
Pack 1 pick 7:
Godhunter Octopus
Rouse the Mob
Font of Vigor
Oakheart Dryads
Bloodcrazed Hoplite
Oreskos Swiftclaw
--> Ravenous Leucrocota
Rollick of Abandon
Forest
In RG, I think this is slightly better than Dryads. In a vacuum, Dryads is probably better.
Could be good if I grab a lot of Monstrous, especially with Mistcutter Hydra or Firebreathing.
Pack 1 pick 13:
Font of Vigor
--> Flamespeaker's Will
Island
Pack 1 pick 14:
--> Flamespeaker's Will
Forest
Pack 1 pick 15:
--> Forest
------ BNG ------
Pack 2 pick 1:
Satyr Wayfinder
Retraction Helix
Nyxborn Eidolon
Bolt of Keranos
Mortal's Ardor
Eye Gouge
Claim of Erebos
Deepwater Hypnotist
Nyxborn Shieldmate
--> Fall of the Hammer
Ornitharch
Oracle's Insight
Spiteful Returned
Herald of Torment
Plains
This hurts. RG wasn't that open so far but I also got some decent cards. Black seemed open much earlier in the pack but I probably put someone else into black. Herald is so good, but shouldn't switch yet. It's not like Hammer Time is bad.
Pack 2 pick 4:
Floodtide Serpent
Felhide Brawler
Ephara's Radiance
Deepwater Hypnotist
Crypsis
Reckless Reveler
Grisly Transformation
Snake of the Golden Grove
Elite Skirmisher
--> Akroan Conscriptor
Drown in Sorrow
Swamp
Pack 2 pick 5:
Floodtide Serpent
Felhide Brawler
Ephara's Radiance
Crypsis
Reckless Reveler
Grisly Transformation
Snake of the Golden Grove
Oracle's Insight
--> Unravel the Æther
Plea for Guidance
Plains
Pack 2 pick 6:
--> Setessan Oathsworn
Forsaken Drifters
Cyclops of One-Eyed Pass
Crypsis
Culling Mark
Loyal Pegasus
Kraken of the Straits
Ragemonger
Perplexing Chimera
Mountain
Pack 2 pick 7:
Nyxborn Wolf
Evanescent Intellect
Epiphany Storm
Great Hart
Aspect of Hydra
Ephara's Enlightenment
--> Pheres-Band Raiders
Heroes' Podium
Forest
Pack 2 pick 8:
Weight of the Underworld
Warchanter of Mogis
Revoke Existence
Charging Badger
Claim of Erebos
Impetuous Sunchaser
--> Akroan Phalanx
Forest
I am probably facing the monoblack deck in the finals. Awesome.
Pack 3 pick 3:
--> Gray Merchant of Asphodel
Divine Verdict
Crackling Triton
Portent of Betrayal
Commune with the Gods
Returned Phalanx
Lagonna-Band Elder
Boulderfall
Savage Surge
Purphoros's Emissary
Ordeal of Erebos
Flamecast Wheel
Mountain
My MTGO timed out while I was talking to my girlfriend. Meant to take Purphoros. Although I'm glad I didn't have to pass someone Hythonia + 2 Gary.
Pack 3 pick 4:
Bronze Sable
Ephara's Warden
Thassa's Bounty
Lost in a Labyrinth
--> Agent of Horizons
Fade into Antiquity
Satyr Rambler
Shredding Winds
Deathbellow Raider
Heliod's Emissary
Warriors' Lesson
Forest
Pack 3 pick 5:
Stymied Hopes
Ill-Tempered Cyclops
Fade into Antiquity
Satyr Rambler
Scourgemark
Coastline Chimera
Scholar of Athreos
Felhide Minotaur
--> Stoneshock Giant
Dark Betrayal
Forest
It's weird, because in some packs RG is dead and in other cases I get passed Stoneshock Giant+Ill-Tempered Cyclops for pick 6. Might as well hate the monoblack deck.
Pack 3 pick 7:
Messenger's Speed
Satyr Rambler
Leonin Snarecaster
--> Feral Invocation
Ray of Dissolution
Hunt the Hunter
Fanatic of Mogis
Swan Song
Swamp
Pack 3 pick 8:
March of the Returned
--> Dragon Mantle
Priest of Iroas
Thassa's Bounty
Lost in a Labyrinth
Traveler's Amulet
Akroan Crusader
Swamp
Pack 3 pick 9:
Viper's Kiss
--> Dragon Mantle
Blood-Toll Harpy
Breaching Hippocamp
Boulderfall
Spellheart Chimera
Swamp
Although RG was not wide open, it's not like I was short on playables. Although black was way more open and gave me lucky bombs, it's not like I got terrible green cards either. Weird draft.
The games:
Round 1 - RG Mirror.
Except his creatures blow, minus one Nessian Asp and the Purphuros's Emissary I acccidentally passed. Game 1 he spends the first few turns casting and activating two Renowned Weavers. LOL. He awkwardly blows Bolt of Keranos to kill subpar creatures while other creatures beat him down. He seems to lack combat tricks and just dies to fatty swarms, combat tricks, Hammer time and stealing his beaters.
2-0 win
Round 2
Game 1 his first two lands are Mountain and Forest. WTF! Another mirror? How many people tried RG? But then he plays two Islands, some awful creature, Market Festival, Benthic Giant, Deepwater Hypnotist and loses when I attack him with too many guys for one giant to block. Akroan Conscriptor helped! RUG Badstuff.dec?
Game 2 he plays T2 Hypnotist T3 one of each land and Nessian Courser, probably the god draw for him. But he opts not to block my Swordwise Centaur. Or my Voltron Setessan Oathsworn. He tries to race me, tapping out each turn to let me swing into him. He takes 3 from Centaur, then 7 from Centaur + Oathsworn(with Ordeal of Nylea) going to 10. He has Kragma Butcher, Nessian Courser and the Hypnotist. He decides the best move to win the game is to swing with the Courser and Butcher and then tap out his lands for Market Festival. Yep, seems good. I have the Portent of Betrayal and heroic enabler and he looks really silly.
2-0
Well, I had decently good green cards for green not being open.
Round 3... Not monoblack. Another UG deck.
Game 1 He gets turn 4 Polukranos, turn 5 bestow with Nyxborn Wolf, turn 6 Aqueous Form. I have Unravel the Aether but for some reason choose to hit the Wolf instead of the Aqueous Form. Must have done the math wrong. I'm at exactly 7 life with Setessan Oathsworn, Leucrocota and RG open and he EOT Monstrous targeting the Oathsworn. I somehow thought his creature would only be a 6/6 so I was planning to Fall to the Hammer my Oathsworn in response, surprise killing the Hydra for exactly 6 damage back. I clearly should have Unraveled the Aqueous, taking another 8 that previous turn (dropping to 4 instead of 7), but then chumping the next attack and having enough tricks to Hammer it for 7 with Oathsworn when I untapped again. Didn't think that through enough and thought I either had another damage on the double fight or another turn before lethal. Oops.
Game 2 I start off aggressive with T3 Pensive Minotaur, T4 bestow with Mogis. He retaliates with Nyxborn Wolf and and blows a Nature's Panolpy just to put a +1/+1 counter on it for no reason so he can race back for 4 damage. I'm stuck on 3 lands so I drop Dragon Mantle on my Voltron, still not drawing lands. He has Hubris, returning everything to hand. I'm forced to discard 2. Sigh. He untaps and swings back for 4, putting the race at 12-16 with me at no creatures on table. He follows up with a second hardcast Nyxborn Wolf. I start playing guys to chump block/trade with his attackers. He plays Perplexing Chimera ftlol. I sneak out a Mogis Warhound and Dragon Mantle (to draw into land finally) and he attacks into my Warhound, which is awesome because I needed it on defense to kill something and I don't get why he didn't just wait a turn and force me to send him on a suicide mission so I have no blockers. Anyway, I hit 5 lands and my only creature is Nessian Asp. I'm at 6. I need creatures. I play it. He does the trade, giving me his tapped Chimera (it attacked). He swings at me for 4, dropping me to 2, but doesn't have the mana to go monstrous and doesn't have any pump spells in hand. I wonder who took all the Aspect of Hydras since no one is playing them?? I untap and cast Setessan Oathsworn bestowing Everflame Eidolon and pass the turn with my 4/4. I've got Setessan Tactics so my plan is to chump with Chimera, hope he doesn't have bounce, and then try to chump/fight my Voltron guy into dominance. I chump with Chimera. Post-combat he taps out to play Nessian Wilds Ravager. Well, this guy got lucky with all the green rares. Crud. Wait, I LOL. I have Portent of Betrayal in hand and he's at 16. I pay tribute, steal it, and smash him for 16. He seems noticeably on tilt.
Game 3 He plays early Nyxborn Wolf + Aqueous Form. I play T3 Cerberus + T4 Ordeal, but this time I'm ready for his Hubris. He tries to bounce after blockers, I Hammer his Wolf in response getting a nice 3-for-1 (since I get my creature+Ordeal back). I was expecting Hubris in response to Ordeal (making Hammer 3-for-2 only), but he made the mistake of being "cute" and waiting till after blockers. He plays a 1/3 dork. I replay Cerberus with mana open. He plays Perplexing Chimera. Not again :(. I play Ordeal. He lets it through. I attack, no blockers, I flash in Feral Invocation. He allows it and takes 8. Next turn he drops a scryfish and chumps my attack for 10 with his 1/3. I play another creature. On his turn he upkeep taps Scryfish and then taps out for Nessian Wilds Ravager again. With it on the stack, I Nature's Panolpy both my creatures. If he trades, I get his Ravager. So he has to let it resolve. Cerberus becomes a 6/7, so I don't pay the tribute and let the Ravager fight my other dork. On my turn I swing with my Voltron, now a 7/8 and popping the Ordeal. He chumps with Chimera (his other options are chump with Ravager or die). With Chimera out of the way, I finally get to drop Pheres-Band Raiders and pass. He chooses to go on offense with his Ravager and drops a Snake of the Golden Grove, keeping his scryfish on defense. I'm now at 8 and he has too many chump blockers for me to push through so I decide to let him gain the life up to 16 (7/8 double strike Voltron is no longer lethal, sadly). I keep Voltron on defense and start swinging with Raiders, figuring I might as well kill some dorks and/or damage him while making some tokens. But I get lucky and topdeck my first Stoneshock Giant of the tourney, so I cast that post-combat with more than lethal on the board. He draws no answer and can't swing for enough at me. He concedes.
Another 3-0, inching me closer to 1850.
Matches against RG, RUG and UG... This is really weird. It seems I had the best green pool out of any of them (arguably 2 bombs + 2 Nyxborn Wolf was better, but the quality dropped off after that) and green seemed to throw me enough bones not to scare me out of it, yet they kept forcing green and thinning the pool. This is why I hate Swiss. You get players cutting you out of green so they can run their Market Festivals and Renowned Weavers...
It seems to me like you had a really strong white signal in pack 1.
P1P2: Magma Spray over Warhound; Warhound to me seems like a bear with a drawback, and is really only at its best in a very aggressive deck.
P1P3: Blinding Flare is another hyper-aggressive card, and is bad almost everywhere else. Oakheart, Supply-Line Cranes, Swarmborn Giant would have been my preference, Oakheart for safest pick, Swarmborn if you want to try it out, and Cranes are just solid.
P1P4: Eagle of the Watch over Formation, or Dakra Mystic if you want to dip into blue. I haven't been that impressed by Aerial Formation.
P1P5: Swiftclaw P5 is a sign white is open.
P1P6: Akroan Mastiff
P1P7: Swiftclaw again, but if you were in the green plan, a second Oakheart here is really good.
This makes your P2P1 easily Ornitharch.
Enjoyed the write ups. Thanks for the recap, and grats on the win.
P1P2 I grabbed Warhound because I needed more copies for block constructed and it seemed like an OK pick otherwise, Magma Spray a close second. I don't find this card nearly as much a liability as say Deathbellow Raider. If you bestow on turn 3, you're swinging with a 4/3 or bigger. Being forced to attack for 4 power on turn 3 isn't really a drawback (and if it is, you just don't bestow it yet). Later in the game you're sticking this on your Voltron anyway, so again, being forced to attack is not a drawback. Casting it as a bear does seem bad though. I just use it as a more efficient Nyxborn Shieldmate.
P1P3 I was experimenting. A friend had ranked this card really highly in his evaluations and I had never played with it yet, since I never valued picking it early. I wanted to try it out since it's both a cheap Heroic enabler and "creatures you control are unblockable this turn". Also, I find red underdrafted so I was trying to cut red early to make it even more open. But after drafting and playing with it, I agree it's too conditional for an early pick. This is the sort of card I would ideally grab early pack 3 once I knew I was RW aggro but is too risky to grab early pack 1. Oakheart was my next priority, then Supply-Line. Oakheart was probably correct.
P1P4 I've had mixed experiences with Dakra Mystic. It's a really awful topdeck and early game, while powerful, you need to balance activations and using mana for spells. Eagle's a solid pick. I frankly ignored white at this point, since I'd already passed Ajani's Presence, Supply-Line Cranes and another Eagle. I also find white overdrafted and figured I would see a lot less white in future packs, especially after those passes. But it turns out white was pretty open for a while.
I don't think Dakra Mystic is an even remotely decent card. I agree with him, though, that you probably should have moved into GW. Heck, even with your RG deck (with mediocre red) after pack one, I'd likely have switched to white for Ornitharch pack 2. The card is so vastly superior to everything you have in red and you're almost certainly getting the white hook-up again pack 3 (and you even got it somewhat in pack 2).
Dakra Mystic is fine, and in a more control oriented deck is actually good. It only has to "hit" once where you get a nice spell and they get a land to justify its inclusion. (If they're mana screwed, then you can also just mill away their lands.) It's a skill testing card but it has the potential to be quite valuable. The worst case is that it's a 1/1 that does nothing because you have to mill every time. The odds of that are pretty low and even then, at least it can chump block or something. It doesn't have a realistic downside.
I had occasion to play a Dakra Mystic for the first time yesterday, and it was relatively awesome. I did not prioritize using the ability when I had other things to do with my mana, but whenever I did use it, it seemed like I was getting good or even great value. Would play again.
This was in a U/G shell with lots of fliers, so, not even the most controlling of decks.
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Ambush Krotiq makes me laugh so much. I keep rereading the card and it keeps not having Flash. In what sense is this an ambush again? I just have visions of this huge Krotiq poorly concealed in some bushes, feeling slightly sad that his carefully planned ambushes never seem to work.
In what way does it justify its inclusion by being a bad, 2 mana, delayed cantrip in your example? If it's not drawing you a good card and them a bad card at least twice, it's not even remotely worth a card. How is being a 1/1 that does nothing besides chump once not a "realistic downside"? What about the realistic downside of facing the BG dredge deck with it, where using it can be actively bad?
All people do is talk about how little card advantage, especially slow card advantage that requires excessive durdling, is in this format - Dakra Mystic isn't even card advantage, it's potential card quality advantage (PS: you drawing a spell and them a land isn't even guaranteed card quality advantage in many situations, as you don't have full info on their next few cards, your next few cards or their hand). It's not the worst play in a slow deck on turn 1, but it's such a bad topdeck, so awful in anything even remotely aggressive and so marginal even in the decks that will play it that P1P4 is just so blatantly wrong that I can't believe anyone's arguing it.
2) While this doesn't prove anything, several noted Pros have given the card a "Good" rating. LSV for example gave it a 3.0 ("Good playable that basically always makes the cut") while noting that it might even rise in his estimation after playing it.
3) You seemed to blow right by the meaning of "realistic." I used that to clarify that I was ignoring both the extreme positive and negative cases. You might play Mystic on Turn 1, and always have 1 spare mana, and always top a spell and give your opponent a useless land and therefore run away with the game by effectively drawing 2 cards a turn. You might also topdeck it in a case where it doesn't help you -- though frankly, by that measure, most creatures that cost less than 4 or 5 are "bad topdecks." I'd argue Mystic is better than say topdecking a Traveling Philosopher late in the game because at least the Mystic can draw you some cards unlike the Philosopher that can just sit there being irrelevant and outclassed. No one uses that as an argument to not play Philosopher in an aggressive deck.
All you've done is highlight the extreme negative case where you never gain any sort of advantage from the card drawing ability. I acknowledge the existence of that case, I just would not expect it to happen often. I don't see how it's any more durdly than Sigiled Starfish aka the card that most people call the best common in Journey. Starfish backfires a lot too. It's a terrible topdeck. Sometimes you just leave every card you see with it on top. It can't kill an X/1 in desperation. That doesn't make it bad, it just makes it variable.
They're not going to print a creature with T: Draw a card. If you want the upside of an ability remotely like that, you have to be willing to take some chances.
Or it could be a looter - then it'd actually be a top 4 pick. I didn't say you wouldn't play it, but it was not even close to the best card in that pack. Indeed Mystic and Starfish are a good comparison - they're both early blue drops that improve card quality on average. The reason Starfish is a high pick and Mystic is mediocre filler is that Starfish blocks early creatures much better (no one alive would rather have a 1/1 to hopefully trade with a 2/1 or 3/1 on defense than an 0/3 that can block so many more things), doesn't require any mana investment, only gives you information even when you keep the card on top and, even if not usually relevant, triggers scry abilities. So yes, they're similar... except Starfish is better in almost every way.
The philosopher comparison, however, is a bad one. First, a 2/2 is a fine topdeck for an aggressive deck (unless you've already lost anyway). It simply commits another creature to the board that can actually swing for slightly more than pitiful damage. It's obviously not a pleasant topdeck, but committing another 2/2 to the board is rarely ever useless in undecided games. Second, having enough bears is far more important for an aggressive deck than durdling away to hopefully, marginally improve card quality is for a slow deck. No one is ever going to say "Damn, I wish I had gotten a Dakra Mystic and this deck would be awesome!" Plenty of decks will be ruined by not having enough early drop beaters.
PS: Pros are wrong with shocking regularity. Set reviews aren't particularly useful to begin with, let alone with unique cards like Mystic.
They're not going to print a creature with T: Draw a card. If you want the upside of an ability remotely like that, you have to be willing to take some chances.
Touche. Well they're not gonna print it for U at uncommon so there!
I don't want to get all pedantic about this, but I struggle to see how Starfish > Mystic in "almost every way." In the most important way, Mystic can actually draw you 2 cards on a turn while Starfish cannot. Sure you can make arguments like Scrying away a land before your draw is effectively drawing 2 cards for your turn, but Mystic accomplishes the same thing -- show the land and mill it. Mystic clearly performs better when you have 2 spells on top since you can just have both of them right away. I'm with you that Starfish is a better blocker and that the lack of activation mana is a big difference.
I also struggle with the general opinion, and it's not just yours because I see it over and over again, that "Pros are often wrong, therefore we can ignore them as we see fit." To me that doesn't compute. Yes, they are often wrong BUT the point is they tend to be less wrong than most other individuals. You can't really criticize LSV unless you're also going to publish a complete review of the set with ratings to be held accountable by the public, or you can point to another objectively better reviewer. So either you become the expert (in which case you don't need to read anyone anymore) or you find a better expert...who gains popularity...and inevitable makes some mistakes...until eventually people are saying you can't trust this guy because he's often wrong! It's an ongoing cycle. I'd rather put some faith in educated and experienced opinions and adjust based on reliable evidence, rather than go with my gut or small sample size outcomes. That's just me.
I actually do think Mystic might be the best card in Pick 4 above. I'm not saying I would have picked it because it's not that good that it's a Blue signal. I would have taken either Starfall or Font of Fertility -- neither of which is a great pick but Starfall at least continues to cut Red to try for the BNG payoff, and Font keeps you in Green so you can play the exceedingly good Setessan Tactics. Basically nothing in Pick 4 is good enough in my opinion to change colors.
P1P2,3,4 could have all been white fliers and you would have essentially cut white. Then P1P5 the Swiftclaw...the regret!
Anyway, you missed an opportunity to draft some really solid white cards, but you picked up on other signals. U or G was the alternative to W, and G > U from the now-unrepresentative-and-hypothetical draft; so you picked the right color there.
I'm not criticizing them for being wrong regularly, anyone's set review before playing a set would have multiple glaring mistakes, but I also don't think he's more likely to be correct about a card as hard to evaluate without seeing in action as Mystic than any other experienced player. Particularly LSV in this case, since he adds a bonus 0.5-1.0 points to every single card that has the word "draw" on it. A lot of the pros aren't particularly fantastic at limited, either. LSV is obviously a fantastic player and great at figuring out constructed, but his drafts are regularly terrible, even when he isn't forcing something janky. I trust his constructed evaluations far, far more than his limited evaluations.
I also think you keep forgetting that even if you're "just" drawing your opponent a land while you draw a spell, you A) don't know if that's exactly what he wanted or not and B) may just be accelerating him into business draws while accelerating yourself into a land. It's not like seeing a spell for you and a land for him guarantees you get the better end of the deal by any means.
As for the pack, I'd rather take Aerial Formation (as a blue card that goes better with my first picks if I end up RU or GU), Eagle of the Watch (same - more powerful in most RW or GW decks), Font of Fertility (not much worse, if at all, on color), Starfall (bad removal is still removal and it's on color) or even Pharika's Chosen (more powerful one drop that's especially good with Tactics, although you haven't passed or received much black).
Is everyone forgetting that mystic can also deny your opponent its bombs? The mystic is a slow value card. You get incremental value by drawing a card when yours has higher value and denying the card when your opponent has better value. I've left the mystic on the wayside when I played at the pre-release, but mostly because it's a very skill intensive card and is a bad attacker and blocker. But it's not that bad given time.
Complex probabilities give me headaches, but on first approximation, given that you play 2/5th+ lands in your deck, thing s fall like:
- 4/25: you both have lands on top. Not sure what the correct strategy is, potentially related to how each is doing in mana.
- 6/25: you got a non-land and he has land. You draw.
- 6/25: you got a land (assuming you don't need it) and he got a spell. You mill.
- 9/25: you both got a spell. You draw or mill based on value. (So 50/50 on average.)
Seems to me you get value ~ 6 + 6 + 4.5 = 17/25 of the times, and are even the rest of the time. Is that worth a card? I'd say if you expect your deck to play the long game, it is.
Edit: of course, there is the complex "by drawing a land, you help your opp dig for threat/answer", which seems a complex topic and hard to evaluate.
Again, I'm fine with quibbling over the wisdom of any single reviewer. But if you don't like LSV's reviews as a baseline for building up experience, then who or what is better? Surely we can't all be equally good at it just for being "experienced players" nor is it optimal to reject all outside opinions or pick and choose just the ones you like that fit with your world view.
And also while a reviewer can easily be wrong, it's hard for a card even with a novel ability to go from 3.0 to like 1.5. Not arguing it was the pick in this particular case, but the original statement I was reacting to was "I don't think Dakra Mystic is an even remotely decent card." That condemns the card's value in total, not just as one choice in a pack with better options.
Oh really? I'm not going to pretend like I would have done better before playing, but here are some examples from Conley's/LSV's green set reviews for Innistrad that would almost certainly change by 1+ points if evaluated today:
Caravan Vigil - 2.5/2.5 - "I think this card will go relatively high" when it was pretty much a guaranteed wheel.
Creeping Renaissance - 3.0/3.0 - Unless I'm misremembering, this was a wheeled card that almost never made decks. Too slow to matter. Not sure I ever saw it played.
Gnaw to the Bones - 0.5/1.0 - Lifegain is bad, sure... unless it doesn't cost a card and gains 10-20 life for 3 mana at instant speed. Great piece of probably the best deck in the format.
Mayor of Avabruk - 2.5/4.0 - One of the biggest bombs in the format. Basically unbeatable if it flips. Good call, LSV - not so much Conley.
Moldgraf Monstrosity - 3.5/3.0 - 10th+ pick easy... unless I remember wrong.
Spider Spawning - 2.5(?)/2.5 - Yeah, no. Game winning bomb.
Travel Preparations - 1.5/3.0 - One of the top commons in the format. Another correct call from LSV, at least.
Another great one is Lust for War - 1.0. Evaluated today, easily a 3.5+. Easy first pick and pretty much a guaranteed win in multiples.
Look I'm obviously not going to convince you so feel free to play whatever cards you want. It's just plain incorrect to assume someone IS wrong in a particular case because you can point to other instances where they HAVE BEEN wrong. It's like throwing out the theory of relativity because you find out Einstein once screwed up calculating the tip on a restaurant bill.
Everyone makes mistakes. It's entirely irrelevant to a specific discussion. I'm not basing my whole evaluation of the card on an expert review, but you seem to be basing your evaluation on 1) I don't personally like it and 2) discrediting others. It's fine if you don't like the card but you're out on an island. Most people seem to think it's fine if indeed highly variable.
You can keep discrediting others all you like, but it's not actually contributing any more value to your assessment of the card. I never claimed "This person is always right, therefore their evaluation of this card must be right." In fact I've pointed out repeatedly that no one has ever put together a perfect set review. Lack of perfection does not mean throw out everything else this person has to say. Also note I said it's hard, not impossible but just hard, to be way off on a card. You found a few examples over the course of like 10 sets. And a few of those are off due to format evolutions that no one predicted such as the self-mill deck of Innistrad. Spider Spawning isn't a "game winning bomb" in Magic in general, in fact in most sets it's hot garbage and it only works in a very specific deck type that was difficult to see. Are you claiming that Dakra Mystic is bad because this format is drastically different than expected?
I found a "few examples" in the exactly two set reviews I checked - I literally only looked at Innistrad's Green because it popped up and I remembered at least a few miss evaluations and only went into the red ROE one just to get Lust for War's obviously horrendously inaccurate score. It demonstrates a complete lack of reason on your part to suggest that these are the only mistakes I could find in the last ten sets. I found about seven in 1/6th of one set.
Dakra Mystic isn't very good because of the format, for sure. People did think JBT was going to slow down significantly more than it did. It's more playable than it would have been in BTT, which is why it's not the worst 23rd card or anything, but the format is still too fast to be durdling away, hoping for marginal card quality advantage. If he were in a slower format, he'd be a fine mid-pack pick and a high quality turn 1 play. If the card were closer to fateseal when you want them to draw a bad card (as people seem to think it is), I'd take it even in this format. It's very much not that powerful, particularly when ahead.
There's just so much wrong with the rest of your post that I barely know what to say, so a couple more tid-bits. First, I'm obviously not down on the card because others like it or because it's not my preference. I love slow decks (look at some of my other posts - I'd much rather be BW or UB control than BW or UB aggro, for example) and obviously I don't base my evaluations on just doing the opposite of what LSV says - that's beyond idiotic. I just think he's wrong here, as he's been countless times before (as ALL early reviewers have been). Second, the Einstein parallel is beyond unreasonable. If Einstein had been wrong a large number of times AND the theory of relativity had no actual proof behind it besides a gut feeling, I wouldn't really base anything on it. That's not what happened. Third, where are the "most people" you're thinking of? A review or two before played with it? Two random people on MTGS who drool over every word professionals say? I've played with and against it multiple times - it was almost never worth activating when I played with it and my opponents, while making good decisions at face value, regularly helped me. Even when I got a land and they got a spell, I never once thought "oh no!", particularly in a format where most decks can almost always use the extra lands.
Finally, a "fine, but highly variable" card doesn't equal a fourth pick in pack 1 (particularly switching colors for it) and, in my opinion, isn't "even remotely decent." Particularly when the upside isn't ever actually that impressive (I'd love to see some actual proof if you've got any) since you're not actually fatesealing, looting or drawing alone and you're only controlling, at most, well under half of his draws - sometimes at the expense of your own.
There's really nothing else to say. It's a slow, durdly card that has literally the most marginal impact on board presence and gains you, hopefully, some slight, incremental advantage, assuming you can afford to keep paying for it. That's not even counting the fact that you may never gain you advantage and can, in rare scenarios, help them far more than it helps you (giving them a seemingly innoculous card that wins them the game, playing against BG dredge). If that sounds like a fourth pick to you, go ahead. I'll enjoy the multiple, superior cards you're passing me.
The draft:
------ JOU ------
Pack 1 pick 1:
Ajani's Presence
Nature's Panoply
Grim Guardian
Aerial Formation
Satyr Hoplite
Lagonna-Band Trailblazer
Renowned Weaver
Bladetusk Boar
Cruel Feeding
Mortal Obstinacy
Tormented Thoughts
Chariot of Victory
Knowledge and Power
--> Setessan Tactics
Mountain
Chariot and Ajani's Presence seem good too, but this card can just be a huge blowout.
Pack 1 pick 2:
Aerial Formation
Magma Spray
Eagle of the Watch
Pharika's Chosen
Thassa's Devourer
Gluttonous Cyclops
Sigiled Starfish
Starfall
Cruel Feeding
--> Mogis's Warhound
Strength from the Fallen
Eidolon of Rhetoric
Temple of Epiphany
Island
Eh, this pack was close. I need Warhounds for Block constructed anyway.
Pack 1 pick 3:
Lightning Diadem
Lagonna-Band Trailblazer
Market Festival
Rotted Hulk
Pensive Minotaur
Dreadbringer Lampads
Supply-Line Cranes
Oakheart Dryads (FOIL)
Desecration Plague
Ritual of the Returned
--> Blinding Flare
Swarmborn Giant
Forest
Dryads were tempting too.
Pack 1 pick 4:
--> Aerial Formation
Eagle of the Watch
Font of Fertility
Pharika's Chosen
Thassa's Devourer
Gluttonous Cyclops
Starfall
Cruel Feeding
Dakra Mystic
Triton Cavalry
Dictate of Karametra
Swamp
Lots of blue. Might as well consider it.
Pack 1 pick 5:
Akroan Mastiff
Nyx Infusion
Godhunter Octopus
--> Sigiled Skink (FOIL)
Font of Vigor
Flamespeaker's Will
Cast into Darkness
Oreskos Swiftclaw
Triton Shorestalker
Thoughtrender Lamia
Island
Pack 1 pick 6:
Satyr Hoplite
Akroan Mastiff
Font of Return
Flamespeaker's Will
Aspect of Gorgon
Oppressive Rays
Renowned Weaver
--> Bassara Tower Archer
Strength from the Fallen
Forest
Pack 1 pick 7:
Godhunter Octopus
Rouse the Mob
Font of Vigor
Oakheart Dryads
Bloodcrazed Hoplite
Oreskos Swiftclaw
--> Ravenous Leucrocota
Rollick of Abandon
Forest
In RG, I think this is slightly better than Dryads. In a vacuum, Dryads is probably better.
Pack 1 pick 8:
Lightning Diadem
Lagonna-Band Trailblazer
Rotted Hulk
--> Pensive Minotaur
Dreadbringer Lampads
Thassa's Devourer
Desecration Plague
Mountain
Pack 1 pick 9:
--> Nature's Panoply
Lagonna-Band Trailblazer
Cruel Feeding
Mortal Obstinacy
Tormented Thoughts
Knowledge and Power
Mountain
Pack 1 pick 10:
--> Aerial Formation
Gluttonous Cyclops
Cruel Feeding
Strength from the Fallen
Eidolon of Rhetoric
Island
Meh cyclops. Might as well hedge colors.
Pack 1 pick 11:
Lightning Diadem
Market Festival
Rotted Hulk
--> Desecration Plague
Forest
Pack 1 pick 12:
Cruel Feeding
Triton Cavalry
--> Dictate of Karametra
Swamp
Could be good if I grab a lot of Monstrous, especially with Mistcutter Hydra or Firebreathing.
Pack 1 pick 13:
Font of Vigor
--> Flamespeaker's Will
Island
Pack 1 pick 14:
--> Flamespeaker's Will
Forest
Pack 1 pick 15:
--> Forest
------ BNG ------
Pack 2 pick 1:
Satyr Wayfinder
Retraction Helix
Nyxborn Eidolon
Bolt of Keranos
Mortal's Ardor
Eye Gouge
Claim of Erebos
Deepwater Hypnotist
Nyxborn Shieldmate
--> Fall of the Hammer
Ornitharch
Oracle's Insight
Spiteful Returned
Herald of Torment
Plains
This hurts. RG wasn't that open so far but I also got some decent cards. Black seemed open much earlier in the pack but I probably put someone else into black. Herald is so good, but shouldn't switch yet. It's not like Hammer Time is bad.
Pack 2 pick 2:
Marshmist Titan
Nyxborn Wolf
Floodtide Serpent
Rise to the Challenge
Griffin Dreamfinder
Necrobite
Kragma Butcher
Loyal Pegasus
Elite Skirmisher
Mortal's Resolve
Thunder Brute
--> Everflame Eidolon
Sunbond
Forest
Pack 2 pick 3:
Forsaken Drifters
Excoriate
Scouring Sands
Felhide Brawler
--> Swordwise Centaur
Nullify
Cyclops of One-Eyed Pass
Necrobite
Sudden Storm
Thassa's Rebuff
Noble Quarry
Acolyte's Reward
Swamp
Pack 2 pick 4:
Floodtide Serpent
Felhide Brawler
Ephara's Radiance
Deepwater Hypnotist
Crypsis
Reckless Reveler
Grisly Transformation
Snake of the Golden Grove
Elite Skirmisher
--> Akroan Conscriptor
Drown in Sorrow
Swamp
Pack 2 pick 5:
Floodtide Serpent
Felhide Brawler
Ephara's Radiance
Crypsis
Reckless Reveler
Grisly Transformation
Snake of the Golden Grove
Oracle's Insight
--> Unravel the Æther
Plea for Guidance
Plains
Pack 2 pick 6:
--> Setessan Oathsworn
Forsaken Drifters
Cyclops of One-Eyed Pass
Crypsis
Culling Mark
Loyal Pegasus
Kraken of the Straits
Ragemonger
Perplexing Chimera
Mountain
Pack 2 pick 7:
Nyxborn Wolf
Evanescent Intellect
Epiphany Storm
Great Hart
Aspect of Hydra
Ephara's Enlightenment
--> Pheres-Band Raiders
Heroes' Podium
Forest
Pack 2 pick 8:
Weight of the Underworld
Warchanter of Mogis
Revoke Existence
Charging Badger
Claim of Erebos
Impetuous Sunchaser
--> Akroan Phalanx
Forest
Pack 2 pick 9:
Satyr Wayfinder
Nyxborn Eidolon
Mortal's Ardor
Eye Gouge
Claim of Erebos
--> Nyxborn Shieldmate
Plains
Pack 2 pick 10:
Marshmist Titan
Floodtide Serpent
Elite Skirmisher
--> Mortal's Resolve
Sunbond
Forest
White seems pretty open, RG not so much. It's weird though, because good green came around pretty late too.
Pack 2 pick 11:
Forsaken Drifters
--> Scouring Sands
Thassa's Rebuff
Acolyte's Reward
Swamp
Pack 2 pick 12:
Floodtide Serpent
Ephara's Radiance
--> Crypsis
Swamp
Pack 2 pick 13:
--> Floodtide Serpent
Ephara's Radiance
Plains
Pack 2 pick 14:
--> Forsaken Drifters
Mountain
Pack 2 pick 15:
--> Forest
------ THS ------
Pack 3 pick 1:
Battlewise Valor
--> Nessian Asp
Viper's Kiss
Dragon Mantle
Blood-Toll Harpy
Breaching Hippocamp
Aqueous Form
Spearpoint Oread
Boulderfall
Sedge Scorpion
Keepsake Gorgon
Spellheart Chimera
Triton Tactics
Hythonia the Cruel
Swamp
And Karma doth spite me for not switching to black earlier.
Pack 3 pick 2:
Gods Willing
Gray Merchant of Asphodel
Prescient Chimera
Wingsteed Rider
Two-Headed Cerberus
Vulpine Goliath
Annul
Titan's Strength
Wavecrash Triton
Cavern Lampad
Destructive Revelry
Phalanx Leader
--> Ordeal of Nylea
Mountain
I am probably facing the monoblack deck in the finals. Awesome.
Pack 3 pick 3:
--> Gray Merchant of Asphodel
Divine Verdict
Crackling Triton
Portent of Betrayal
Commune with the Gods
Returned Phalanx
Lagonna-Band Elder
Boulderfall
Savage Surge
Purphoros's Emissary
Ordeal of Erebos
Flamecast Wheel
Mountain
My MTGO timed out while I was talking to my girlfriend. Meant to take Purphoros. Although I'm glad I didn't have to pass someone Hythonia + 2 Gary.
Pack 3 pick 4:
Bronze Sable
Ephara's Warden
Thassa's Bounty
Lost in a Labyrinth
--> Agent of Horizons
Fade into Antiquity
Satyr Rambler
Shredding Winds
Deathbellow Raider
Heliod's Emissary
Warriors' Lesson
Forest
Pack 3 pick 5:
Stymied Hopes
Ill-Tempered Cyclops
Fade into Antiquity
Satyr Rambler
Scourgemark
Coastline Chimera
Scholar of Athreos
Felhide Minotaur
--> Stoneshock Giant
Dark Betrayal
Forest
Pack 3 pick 6:
Demolish
Benthic Giant
Annul
Traveling Philosopher
Setessan Griffin
Triton Shorethief
--> Mogis's Marauder
Insatiable Harpy
Arena Athlete
Island
It's weird, because in some packs RG is dead and in other cases I get passed Stoneshock Giant+Ill-Tempered Cyclops for pick 6. Might as well hate the monoblack deck.
Pack 3 pick 7:
Messenger's Speed
Satyr Rambler
Leonin Snarecaster
--> Feral Invocation
Ray of Dissolution
Hunt the Hunter
Fanatic of Mogis
Swan Song
Swamp
Pack 3 pick 8:
March of the Returned
--> Dragon Mantle
Priest of Iroas
Thassa's Bounty
Lost in a Labyrinth
Traveler's Amulet
Akroan Crusader
Swamp
Pack 3 pick 9:
Viper's Kiss
--> Dragon Mantle
Blood-Toll Harpy
Breaching Hippocamp
Boulderfall
Spellheart Chimera
Swamp
Pack 3 pick 10:
Gods Willing
--> Two-Headed Cerberus
Annul
Titan's Strength
Cavern Lampad
Mountain
Are people in red or not?
Pack 3 pick 11:
--> Portent of Betrayal
Lagonna-Band Elder
Boulderfall
Flamecast Wheel
Mountain
Pack 3 pick 12:
Bronze Sable
Lost in a Labyrinth
--> Deathbellow Raider
Forest
Pack 3 pick 13:
Coastline Chimera
--> Scholar of Athreos
Forest
Pack 3 pick 14:
--> Demolish
Island
Pack 3 pick 15:
--> Swamp
The deck:
1 Mogis's Warhound
1 Everflame Eidolon
1 Swordwise Centaur
1 Bassara Tower Archer
1 Deathbellow Raider
1 Sigiled Skink
1 Pensive Minotaur
1 Setessan Oathsworn
1 Two-Headed Cerberus
1 Ravenous Leucrocota
1 Nessian Asp
1 Stoneshock Giant
1 Akroan Conscriptor
1 Pheres-Band Raiders
1 Dragon Mantle
1 Blinding Flare
1 Nature's Panolpy
1 Ordeal of Nylea
1 Mortal's Resolve
1 Fall of the Hammer
1 Feral Invocation
1 Setessan Tactics
1 Portent of Betrayal
//Lands:
9 Forest
8 Mountain
1 Dragon Mantle
1 Agent of Horizons
1 Unravel the Aether
Although RG was not wide open, it's not like I was short on playables. Although black was way more open and gave me lucky bombs, it's not like I got terrible green cards either. Weird draft.
The games:
Round 1 - RG Mirror.
Except his creatures blow, minus one Nessian Asp and the Purphuros's Emissary I acccidentally passed. Game 1 he spends the first few turns casting and activating two Renowned Weavers. LOL. He awkwardly blows Bolt of Keranos to kill subpar creatures while other creatures beat him down. He seems to lack combat tricks and just dies to fatty swarms, combat tricks, Hammer time and stealing his beaters.
2-0 win
Round 2
Game 1 his first two lands are Mountain and Forest. WTF! Another mirror? How many people tried RG? But then he plays two Islands, some awful creature, Market Festival, Benthic Giant, Deepwater Hypnotist and loses when I attack him with too many guys for one giant to block. Akroan Conscriptor helped! RUG Badstuff.dec?
Game 2 he plays T2 Hypnotist T3 one of each land and Nessian Courser, probably the god draw for him. But he opts not to block my Swordwise Centaur. Or my Voltron Setessan Oathsworn. He tries to race me, tapping out each turn to let me swing into him. He takes 3 from Centaur, then 7 from Centaur + Oathsworn(with Ordeal of Nylea) going to 10. He has Kragma Butcher, Nessian Courser and the Hypnotist. He decides the best move to win the game is to swing with the Courser and Butcher and then tap out his lands for Market Festival. Yep, seems good. I have the Portent of Betrayal and heroic enabler and he looks really silly.
2-0
Well, I had decently good green cards for green not being open.
Round 3... Not monoblack. Another UG deck.
Game 1 He gets turn 4 Polukranos, turn 5 bestow with Nyxborn Wolf, turn 6 Aqueous Form. I have Unravel the Aether but for some reason choose to hit the Wolf instead of the Aqueous Form. Must have done the math wrong. I'm at exactly 7 life with Setessan Oathsworn, Leucrocota and RG open and he EOT Monstrous targeting the Oathsworn. I somehow thought his creature would only be a 6/6 so I was planning to Fall to the Hammer my Oathsworn in response, surprise killing the Hydra for exactly 6 damage back. I clearly should have Unraveled the Aqueous, taking another 8 that previous turn (dropping to 4 instead of 7), but then chumping the next attack and having enough tricks to Hammer it for 7 with Oathsworn when I untapped again. Didn't think that through enough and thought I either had another damage on the double fight or another turn before lethal. Oops.
Game 2 I start off aggressive with T3 Pensive Minotaur, T4 bestow with Mogis. He retaliates with Nyxborn Wolf and and blows a Nature's Panolpy just to put a +1/+1 counter on it for no reason so he can race back for 4 damage. I'm stuck on 3 lands so I drop Dragon Mantle on my Voltron, still not drawing lands. He has Hubris, returning everything to hand. I'm forced to discard 2. Sigh. He untaps and swings back for 4, putting the race at 12-16 with me at no creatures on table. He follows up with a second hardcast Nyxborn Wolf. I start playing guys to chump block/trade with his attackers. He plays Perplexing Chimera ftlol. I sneak out a Mogis Warhound and Dragon Mantle (to draw into land finally) and he attacks into my Warhound, which is awesome because I needed it on defense to kill something and I don't get why he didn't just wait a turn and force me to send him on a suicide mission so I have no blockers. Anyway, I hit 5 lands and my only creature is Nessian Asp. I'm at 6. I need creatures. I play it. He does the trade, giving me his tapped Chimera (it attacked). He swings at me for 4, dropping me to 2, but doesn't have the mana to go monstrous and doesn't have any pump spells in hand. I wonder who took all the Aspect of Hydras since no one is playing them?? I untap and cast Setessan Oathsworn bestowing Everflame Eidolon and pass the turn with my 4/4. I've got Setessan Tactics so my plan is to chump with Chimera, hope he doesn't have bounce, and then try to chump/fight my Voltron guy into dominance. I chump with Chimera. Post-combat he taps out to play Nessian Wilds Ravager. Well, this guy got lucky with all the green rares. Crud. Wait, I LOL. I have Portent of Betrayal in hand and he's at 16. I pay tribute, steal it, and smash him for 16. He seems noticeably on tilt.
Game 3 He plays early Nyxborn Wolf + Aqueous Form. I play T3 Cerberus + T4 Ordeal, but this time I'm ready for his Hubris. He tries to bounce after blockers, I Hammer his Wolf in response getting a nice 3-for-1 (since I get my creature+Ordeal back). I was expecting Hubris in response to Ordeal (making Hammer 3-for-2 only), but he made the mistake of being "cute" and waiting till after blockers. He plays a 1/3 dork. I replay Cerberus with mana open. He plays Perplexing Chimera. Not again :(. I play Ordeal. He lets it through. I attack, no blockers, I flash in Feral Invocation. He allows it and takes 8. Next turn he drops a scryfish and chumps my attack for 10 with his 1/3. I play another creature. On his turn he upkeep taps Scryfish and then taps out for Nessian Wilds Ravager again. With it on the stack, I Nature's Panolpy both my creatures. If he trades, I get his Ravager. So he has to let it resolve. Cerberus becomes a 6/7, so I don't pay the tribute and let the Ravager fight my other dork. On my turn I swing with my Voltron, now a 7/8 and popping the Ordeal. He chumps with Chimera (his other options are chump with Ravager or die). With Chimera out of the way, I finally get to drop Pheres-Band Raiders and pass. He chooses to go on offense with his Ravager and drops a Snake of the Golden Grove, keeping his scryfish on defense. I'm now at 8 and he has too many chump blockers for me to push through so I decide to let him gain the life up to 16 (7/8 double strike Voltron is no longer lethal, sadly). I keep Voltron on defense and start swinging with Raiders, figuring I might as well kill some dorks and/or damage him while making some tokens. But I get lucky and topdeck my first Stoneshock Giant of the tourney, so I cast that post-combat with more than lethal on the board. He draws no answer and can't swing for enough at me. He concedes.
Another 3-0, inching me closer to 1850.
Matches against RG, RUG and UG... This is really weird. It seems I had the best green pool out of any of them (arguably 2 bombs + 2 Nyxborn Wolf was better, but the quality dropped off after that) and green seemed to throw me enough bones not to scare me out of it, yet they kept forcing green and thinning the pool. This is why I hate Swiss. You get players cutting you out of green so they can run their Market Festivals and Renowned Weavers...
P1P2: Magma Spray over Warhound; Warhound to me seems like a bear with a drawback, and is really only at its best in a very aggressive deck.
P1P3: Blinding Flare is another hyper-aggressive card, and is bad almost everywhere else. Oakheart, Supply-Line Cranes, Swarmborn Giant would have been my preference, Oakheart for safest pick, Swarmborn if you want to try it out, and Cranes are just solid.
P1P4: Eagle of the Watch over Formation, or Dakra Mystic if you want to dip into blue. I haven't been that impressed by Aerial Formation.
P1P5: Swiftclaw P5 is a sign white is open.
P1P6: Akroan Mastiff
P1P7: Swiftclaw again, but if you were in the green plan, a second Oakheart here is really good.
This makes your P2P1 easily Ornitharch.
Enjoyed the write ups. Thanks for the recap, and grats on the win.
P1P2 I grabbed Warhound because I needed more copies for block constructed and it seemed like an OK pick otherwise, Magma Spray a close second. I don't find this card nearly as much a liability as say Deathbellow Raider. If you bestow on turn 3, you're swinging with a 4/3 or bigger. Being forced to attack for 4 power on turn 3 isn't really a drawback (and if it is, you just don't bestow it yet). Later in the game you're sticking this on your Voltron anyway, so again, being forced to attack is not a drawback. Casting it as a bear does seem bad though. I just use it as a more efficient Nyxborn Shieldmate.
P1P3 I was experimenting. A friend had ranked this card really highly in his evaluations and I had never played with it yet, since I never valued picking it early. I wanted to try it out since it's both a cheap Heroic enabler and "creatures you control are unblockable this turn". Also, I find red underdrafted so I was trying to cut red early to make it even more open. But after drafting and playing with it, I agree it's too conditional for an early pick. This is the sort of card I would ideally grab early pack 3 once I knew I was RW aggro but is too risky to grab early pack 1. Oakheart was my next priority, then Supply-Line. Oakheart was probably correct.
P1P4 I've had mixed experiences with Dakra Mystic. It's a really awful topdeck and early game, while powerful, you need to balance activations and using mana for spells. Eagle's a solid pick. I frankly ignored white at this point, since I'd already passed Ajani's Presence, Supply-Line Cranes and another Eagle. I also find white overdrafted and figured I would see a lot less white in future packs, especially after those passes. But it turns out white was pretty open for a while.
This was in a U/G shell with lots of fliers, so, not even the most controlling of decks.
All people do is talk about how little card advantage, especially slow card advantage that requires excessive durdling, is in this format - Dakra Mystic isn't even card advantage, it's potential card quality advantage (PS: you drawing a spell and them a land isn't even guaranteed card quality advantage in many situations, as you don't have full info on their next few cards, your next few cards or their hand). It's not the worst play in a slow deck on turn 1, but it's such a bad topdeck, so awful in anything even remotely aggressive and so marginal even in the decks that will play it that P1P4 is just so blatantly wrong that I can't believe anyone's arguing it.
2) While this doesn't prove anything, several noted Pros have given the card a "Good" rating. LSV for example gave it a 3.0 ("Good playable that basically always makes the cut") while noting that it might even rise in his estimation after playing it.
3) You seemed to blow right by the meaning of "realistic." I used that to clarify that I was ignoring both the extreme positive and negative cases. You might play Mystic on Turn 1, and always have 1 spare mana, and always top a spell and give your opponent a useless land and therefore run away with the game by effectively drawing 2 cards a turn. You might also topdeck it in a case where it doesn't help you -- though frankly, by that measure, most creatures that cost less than 4 or 5 are "bad topdecks." I'd argue Mystic is better than say topdecking a Traveling Philosopher late in the game because at least the Mystic can draw you some cards unlike the Philosopher that can just sit there being irrelevant and outclassed. No one uses that as an argument to not play Philosopher in an aggressive deck.
All you've done is highlight the extreme negative case where you never gain any sort of advantage from the card drawing ability. I acknowledge the existence of that case, I just would not expect it to happen often. I don't see how it's any more durdly than Sigiled Starfish aka the card that most people call the best common in Journey. Starfish backfires a lot too. It's a terrible topdeck. Sometimes you just leave every card you see with it on top. It can't kill an X/1 in desperation. That doesn't make it bad, it just makes it variable.
They're not going to print a creature with T: Draw a card. If you want the upside of an ability remotely like that, you have to be willing to take some chances.
The philosopher comparison, however, is a bad one. First, a 2/2 is a fine topdeck for an aggressive deck (unless you've already lost anyway). It simply commits another creature to the board that can actually swing for slightly more than pitiful damage. It's obviously not a pleasant topdeck, but committing another 2/2 to the board is rarely ever useless in undecided games. Second, having enough bears is far more important for an aggressive deck than durdling away to hopefully, marginally improve card quality is for a slow deck. No one is ever going to say "Damn, I wish I had gotten a Dakra Mystic and this deck would be awesome!" Plenty of decks will be ruined by not having enough early drop beaters.
PS: Pros are wrong with shocking regularity. Set reviews aren't particularly useful to begin with, let alone with unique cards like Mystic.
Archivist
/thread.
Touche. Well they're not gonna print it for U at uncommon so there!
I don't want to get all pedantic about this, but I struggle to see how Starfish > Mystic in "almost every way." In the most important way, Mystic can actually draw you 2 cards on a turn while Starfish cannot. Sure you can make arguments like Scrying away a land before your draw is effectively drawing 2 cards for your turn, but Mystic accomplishes the same thing -- show the land and mill it. Mystic clearly performs better when you have 2 spells on top since you can just have both of them right away. I'm with you that Starfish is a better blocker and that the lack of activation mana is a big difference.
I also struggle with the general opinion, and it's not just yours because I see it over and over again, that "Pros are often wrong, therefore we can ignore them as we see fit." To me that doesn't compute. Yes, they are often wrong BUT the point is they tend to be less wrong than most other individuals. You can't really criticize LSV unless you're also going to publish a complete review of the set with ratings to be held accountable by the public, or you can point to another objectively better reviewer. So either you become the expert (in which case you don't need to read anyone anymore) or you find a better expert...who gains popularity...and inevitable makes some mistakes...until eventually people are saying you can't trust this guy because he's often wrong! It's an ongoing cycle. I'd rather put some faith in educated and experienced opinions and adjust based on reliable evidence, rather than go with my gut or small sample size outcomes. That's just me.
I actually do think Mystic might be the best card in Pick 4 above. I'm not saying I would have picked it because it's not that good that it's a Blue signal. I would have taken either Starfall or Font of Fertility -- neither of which is a great pick but Starfall at least continues to cut Red to try for the BNG payoff, and Font keeps you in Green so you can play the exceedingly good Setessan Tactics. Basically nothing in Pick 4 is good enough in my opinion to change colors.
Anyway, you missed an opportunity to draft some really solid white cards, but you picked up on other signals. U or G was the alternative to W, and G > U from the now-unrepresentative-and-hypothetical draft; so you picked the right color there.
G/W was the way to go!
I also think you keep forgetting that even if you're "just" drawing your opponent a land while you draw a spell, you A) don't know if that's exactly what he wanted or not and B) may just be accelerating him into business draws while accelerating yourself into a land. It's not like seeing a spell for you and a land for him guarantees you get the better end of the deal by any means.
As for the pack, I'd rather take Aerial Formation (as a blue card that goes better with my first picks if I end up RU or GU), Eagle of the Watch (same - more powerful in most RW or GW decks), Font of Fertility (not much worse, if at all, on color), Starfall (bad removal is still removal and it's on color) or even Pharika's Chosen (more powerful one drop that's especially good with Tactics, although you haven't passed or received much black).
Complex probabilities give me headaches, but on first approximation, given that you play 2/5th+ lands in your deck, thing s fall like:
- 4/25: you both have lands on top. Not sure what the correct strategy is, potentially related to how each is doing in mana.
- 6/25: you got a non-land and he has land. You draw.
- 6/25: you got a land (assuming you don't need it) and he got a spell. You mill.
- 9/25: you both got a spell. You draw or mill based on value. (So 50/50 on average.)
Seems to me you get value ~ 6 + 6 + 4.5 = 17/25 of the times, and are even the rest of the time. Is that worth a card? I'd say if you expect your deck to play the long game, it is.
Edit: of course, there is the complex "by drawing a land, you help your opp dig for threat/answer", which seems a complex topic and hard to evaluate.
And also while a reviewer can easily be wrong, it's hard for a card even with a novel ability to go from 3.0 to like 1.5. Not arguing it was the pick in this particular case, but the original statement I was reacting to was "I don't think Dakra Mystic is an even remotely decent card." That condemns the card's value in total, not just as one choice in a pack with better options.
Caravan Vigil - 2.5/2.5 - "I think this card will go relatively high" when it was pretty much a guaranteed wheel.
Creeping Renaissance - 3.0/3.0 - Unless I'm misremembering, this was a wheeled card that almost never made decks. Too slow to matter. Not sure I ever saw it played.
Gnaw to the Bones - 0.5/1.0 - Lifegain is bad, sure... unless it doesn't cost a card and gains 10-20 life for 3 mana at instant speed. Great piece of probably the best deck in the format.
Mayor of Avabruk - 2.5/4.0 - One of the biggest bombs in the format. Basically unbeatable if it flips. Good call, LSV - not so much Conley.
Moldgraf Monstrosity - 3.5/3.0 - 10th+ pick easy... unless I remember wrong.
Spider Spawning - 2.5(?)/2.5 - Yeah, no. Game winning bomb.
Travel Preparations - 1.5/3.0 - One of the top commons in the format. Another correct call from LSV, at least.
Another great one is Lust for War - 1.0. Evaluated today, easily a 3.5+. Easy first pick and pretty much a guaranteed win in multiples.
Everyone makes mistakes. It's entirely irrelevant to a specific discussion. I'm not basing my whole evaluation of the card on an expert review, but you seem to be basing your evaluation on 1) I don't personally like it and 2) discrediting others. It's fine if you don't like the card but you're out on an island. Most people seem to think it's fine if indeed highly variable.
You can keep discrediting others all you like, but it's not actually contributing any more value to your assessment of the card. I never claimed "This person is always right, therefore their evaluation of this card must be right." In fact I've pointed out repeatedly that no one has ever put together a perfect set review. Lack of perfection does not mean throw out everything else this person has to say. Also note I said it's hard, not impossible but just hard, to be way off on a card. You found a few examples over the course of like 10 sets. And a few of those are off due to format evolutions that no one predicted such as the self-mill deck of Innistrad. Spider Spawning isn't a "game winning bomb" in Magic in general, in fact in most sets it's hot garbage and it only works in a very specific deck type that was difficult to see. Are you claiming that Dakra Mystic is bad because this format is drastically different than expected?
Dakra Mystic isn't very good because of the format, for sure. People did think JBT was going to slow down significantly more than it did. It's more playable than it would have been in BTT, which is why it's not the worst 23rd card or anything, but the format is still too fast to be durdling away, hoping for marginal card quality advantage. If he were in a slower format, he'd be a fine mid-pack pick and a high quality turn 1 play. If the card were closer to fateseal when you want them to draw a bad card (as people seem to think it is), I'd take it even in this format. It's very much not that powerful, particularly when ahead.
There's just so much wrong with the rest of your post that I barely know what to say, so a couple more tid-bits. First, I'm obviously not down on the card because others like it or because it's not my preference. I love slow decks (look at some of my other posts - I'd much rather be BW or UB control than BW or UB aggro, for example) and obviously I don't base my evaluations on just doing the opposite of what LSV says - that's beyond idiotic. I just think he's wrong here, as he's been countless times before (as ALL early reviewers have been). Second, the Einstein parallel is beyond unreasonable. If Einstein had been wrong a large number of times AND the theory of relativity had no actual proof behind it besides a gut feeling, I wouldn't really base anything on it. That's not what happened. Third, where are the "most people" you're thinking of? A review or two before played with it? Two random people on MTGS who drool over every word professionals say? I've played with and against it multiple times - it was almost never worth activating when I played with it and my opponents, while making good decisions at face value, regularly helped me. Even when I got a land and they got a spell, I never once thought "oh no!", particularly in a format where most decks can almost always use the extra lands.
Finally, a "fine, but highly variable" card doesn't equal a fourth pick in pack 1 (particularly switching colors for it) and, in my opinion, isn't "even remotely decent." Particularly when the upside isn't ever actually that impressive (I'd love to see some actual proof if you've got any) since you're not actually fatesealing, looting or drawing alone and you're only controlling, at most, well under half of his draws - sometimes at the expense of your own.
There's really nothing else to say. It's a slow, durdly card that has literally the most marginal impact on board presence and gains you, hopefully, some slight, incremental advantage, assuming you can afford to keep paying for it. That's not even counting the fact that you may never gain you advantage and can, in rare scenarios, help them far more than it helps you (giving them a seemingly innoculous card that wins them the game, playing against BG dredge). If that sounds like a fourth pick to you, go ahead. I'll enjoy the multiple, superior cards you're passing me.