First match vs RW.
Yeah, the freaking mirror. We split the first two games. He's playing in the 3rd. My hand: mountains, 2 plains, phalanx leader, fabled hero, heliod, and something else. Sounds like an amazing hand right? heliod active on the 4th turns, barring removal. My opp goes: phalanx leader, another guy, ordeal of purphoros on leader, gets in for 3, then, after I play heliod... portent of betrayal n my hero. Yeah, that's like a gazillion damage on me (leader on 2 counters). Next turn he plays a guy and a titan's strength on phalanx, atatck with everything, trigger ordeal, kill my hero and I'm almost dead without having attacked once. Didn't draw a single heroic enabler the whole game.
I'd never consider Spark Jolt main deck with anything even remotely playable in the sideboard. I'd put in the Sunchaser (slightly cool that he can ping with haste with Titan and it stops him from running into a bigger flier if Titan's out) or maybe even Hold at Bay (it's not much worse than God's Willing most of the time you play it) for another trick.
There are mnay X/1 creatures that annoys, especially against an aggro deck, the goal is to clear the coast to attack and jolt does that. On top it scrys *and* it even works as a heroic enabler. In fact, one game I used it to boost my fabled hero up to 3/3. I did side in hold at bay to increase my number of heroic enablers (and it's a good play against an opposing racing RW deck.) I sided out one of the expensive giant though, not jolt. (I'd not side out jolt against an opp that has phalanx leader.)
p1p1 my pick ??? (your pick Fall of the Hammer)
Honestly two cards interest me here. I like retraction helix more than I should, and the Fall of the Hammer. I could have gone either way, so let's say I agree and take Fall.
p1p2 my pick Kragma Butcher (your pick Kragma Butcher)
So first thing to notice is that barring foils, a common is missing. To me that says one of two cards was in the pack - Fall of the Hammer or Akroan Skyguard. Not enough information to change our decision making, but worth noting. I like the blue cards, both Sudden Storm and Oracle's Insight are very good here, but I'd be fine taking the Kragma Butcher after Fall of the Hammer.
p1p3 my pick Acolyte's Reware (your pick Rise to the Challenge)
Uh oh. This pack worries me. The only payoff for red in BTT is in your first pack which means you better get good cards early or look to get out. Rise to the Challenge is not one of those cards. Out of a weak pack I pick the card with the highest upside.
p1p4 my pick Vanguard of Brimaz (your pick Vanguard of Brimaz)
p1p5 my pick Oreskos Sun Guide (your pick Fearsome Temper)
Red is starting to look pretty picked over, and we've seen three decent white cards. I move in.
p1p6 my pick Loyal Pegasus (your pick Loyal Pegasus)
I like creatures with italics better than most so I'd be momentarily tempted by the vanilla 5/2 (which I actually like in UR), but Loyal Pegasus is very good.
p1p7 my pick Asphyxiate (your pick Thunderbrute)
Ugh... this pack. The big dude I don't really want and a freakin' Asphyxiate. I'm not sure what I would do here, I might take the Asphyxiate with the thought that maybe black is once again criminally underdrafted and that I've not seen much red but I could see myself taking any one of the really crappy replaceable cards - Thunderbrute, Mortal's Ardor, or Reckless Reveler. In the end I think I take Ashpyxiate as a speculative pick.
p1p8 my pick Griffin Dreamfinder (your pick Hold at Bay)
Another clunker of a pack. This would be between the two white cards for me. I think I might give the edge to Griffin Dreamfinder with the idea of positioning myself as the WB drafter.
So yeah, not sure how the rest of the draft would have gone for me, but I would not be happy 8 picks in.
Every card is occasionally useful. I wouldn't hate my life if I had to maindeck a Spark Jolt, but I wouldn't run it over a couple of your sideboard cards. There are some x/1s, sure, but there are entire decks that play none and even if someone is, you're maybe going to 1 for 1 them. Maindeck cards shouldn't "hopefully 1 for 1" against some decks and do nothing against some decks. There are a reasonable number of white permanents around, but I'm not maindecking Glare of Heresy either.
That said, I'd have sided it in against your opponent as you said - over one of the big guys.
Spark Jolt actually went from a sideboard card to a fine maindeck call in this format thanks to the existence of Setessan Oathsworn and Akroan Skyguard. You're not completely thrilled to run it, but it is absolutely not a bad maindeck choice in this deck. It's far more impactful than Sunchaser, and it can trigger Heroic in a pinch as well. There's no card in the board even remotely close in utility as the Jolt.
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I hereby found the American Chapter of the Zealots of Semantics. All glory to The Curmudgeon.
So *if* your opponent has one of these creatures *and* they haven't bestowed it one something or bestowed something on it, *and* you feel good about them not having a trick if they have open mana (and most of these creatures are in decks that are trying to run a lot of tricks).
It does hit a fair number of things, but the fact that that's still a pretty short list would still make me disinclined to maindeck it.
I'd probably still run it over the sunchaser in most decks if that's what the choice was, but I think I'd prefer to run the hold at bay in the main deck until I saw that my opponent had a least a couple of targets for it.
So *if* your opponent has one of these creatures *and* they haven't bestowed it one something or bestowed something on it, *and* you feel good about them not having a trick if they have open mana (and most of these creatures are in decks that are trying to run a lot of tricks).
It does hit a fair number of things, but the fact that that's still a pretty short list would still make me disinclined to maindeck it.
I'd probably still run it over the sunchaser in most decks if that's what the choice was, but I think I'd prefer to run the hold at bay in the main deck until I saw that my opponent had a least a couple of targets for it.
Pretty much this. Spark Jolt is okay if you know they're running a few of those, but it's not a maindeck card unless you need to. Even that list of cards it trades with (assuming they have no trick) isn't really a list. Half of them are bad, would never be played without a trick ready unless curving perfectly and/or would almost never be played without being bestowed.
Again, no maindeck card should pretty much 1 for 1 in basically the best case scenario and regularly be almost a mulligan. Is that list of creatures more impressive than the list of black creatures that I could argue make Dark Betrayal maindeck-worthy? Nah. Just beacuse RW and UW are fairly busted in the format doesn't mean they're the majority of decks - Spark Jolt is horrendous against control/monster decks. The odds of them dropping one of their one or two targets (if they have one at all) and you having Spark Jolt are absurdly low. Great sideboard card - bad maindeck card. Hold at Bay is bad, but it's going to 1 for 1 a creature or gain you seven vital life against the decks Spark Jolt is good against already, possibly while triggering heroic at the same time.
I checked the stats on MtGGoldfish to see if my poor experiences with Hold at Bay were somehow an aberration, but no. The card performs even worse than I expected. The deck playing it wins a mere 41% of the matches. If that doesn't sound awful it puts it right below Sun bond and Messenger's Speed.
I think this is a good example of the limitations of such stats. If you're behind, Hold at Bay will almost never sit in your hand...in the absolute worst case you'll cast it on yourself in to try to buy an extra draw step. If you're winning, on the other hand, it's quite possible you never need the card. This means that Hold at Bay's stats will be skewed towards showing up in losing matches.
The same goes for Spark Jolt, though. If you're losing you'll cast it for scry. And it sits at 49%.
Except that's not even remotely how people actually use Scry when behind. I've seen it regularly. You just save it until they drop a 1 toughness drop (or try to do something to their Phalanx leader or whatever), which they don't always do. Not every time, sure, and it might not be right, but it happens frequently. Hold at Bay will get played basically every time you're behind. Also, when you're ahead, you'll still throw Spark Jolt down the second they drop something it can kill (or maybe even at their face) while Hold at Bay will often just sit in your hand to make sure you don't get blown out by a trick.
Anyway, those stats mean very little. They obviously ignore the situations you're likely to play or hold cards, they ignore deck quality (a worse card can win far more often than a better one by being part of a better deck more frequently), they ignore what's a good sideboard vs. maindeck card and they ignore the castability vs. impact if you're lucky enough to acst it (Boulderfall is good? Nah. Ashen Rider is the best card in BNG/THS/THS? Not even sort of.). Obviously Dauntless Onslaught is a fantastic bomb, but who here is going to pick it over Elspeth in any situation except pack 3 when you're already all-in aggro/heroic (if even then)? mtgGoldfish says they're the same quality in triple THS.
Not to mention that Spark Jolt is obviously a very good sideboard card against some decks. Hold at Bay is not. Honestly, all that's really necessary to refute your evidence is to point out that Gainsay is the second best uncommon in Theros by win percentage. Please maindeck it against me blindly.
Anyway, those stats mean very little. They obviously ignore the situations you're likely to play or hold cards, they ignore deck quality (a worse card can win far more often than a better one by being part of a better deck more frequently), they ignore what's a good sideboard vs. maindeck card and they ignore the castability vs. impact if you're lucky enough to acst it (Boulderfall is good? Nah. Ashen Rider is the best card in BNG/THS/THS? Not even sort of.). Obviously Dauntless Onslaught is a fantastic bomb, but who here is going to pick it over Elspeth in any situation except pack 3 when you're already all-in aggro/heroic (if even then)? mtgGoldfish says they're the same quality in triple THS.
Not to mention that Spark Jolt is obviously a very good sideboard card against some decks. Hold at Bay is not. Honestly, all that's really necessary to refute your evidence is to point out that Gainsay is the second best uncommon in Theros by win percentage. Please maindeck it against me blindly.
I guess if you apply absolutely no thinking when using these stats, they are indeed useless. If instead you actually make an effort to interpret them I find them pretty darn useful.
First let's look at Gainsay, what should we take from it's high rating? Well, for one thing we should be looking to bring it in from the sideboard at every opportunity.
And please ignore all other information provided (like the average number of lands played 6.6/game) when interpreting the ratings of cards like Boulderfall.
But let's look at the case of Hold at Bay, and look at it vs other comparables (cheap combat tricks). There is literally no lower ranked card (unless you count defend the hearth). Now look at spark jolt vs it's comparables (situational answers) and we see it's better than cards like Last Breath, Stymied Hopes, Ray of Dissolution, etc...
I've seen it plenty because people show their hands and because I watch a lot of Channel Fireball and other drafters. I've only seen a desperation Spark Jolt a couple of times - I've seen it held to try to get a guy or to maybe help trade up when behind plenty of times. People aren't picky about playing Hold at Bay - you're reading things into the numbers that aren't there. First, there are more Spark Jolts on average, I think, than Hold at Bays flying around. Second, only a heroic deck would ever play Hold at Bay - any red deck could play Spark Jolt. Second, if you drafted well, you'll maindeck neither card. Spark Jolt will come in out of the sideboard regularly, Hold at Bay almost never will. Gainsay is played 10 times more than Culling Mark, is Gainsay not a sideboard card? Obviously a good sideboard card will be played more frequently than a bad card, even if the bad card is a better maindeck choice in heroic decks.
As for Hold at Bay sitting in hand while winning, that's pretty obvious. It's there as disaster insurance. If you're far ahead, you're far more likely to lose because they manage to double block your Voltron guy or monster and play Coordinated Assault or because they throw a couple of burn spells at it (or some combination) than because they dropped a 1 toughness guy. However, them dropping a 1 toughness dude or you throwing Jolt at their face is far less impactful, but far more common than needing to use Hold at Bay to win. It's like having Cancel when you're far ahead. I guarantee that if the stats included what was in your hand when the game ends, Hold at Bay would gain ground, not that the stats are useful anyway.
Also, again, these are averages of all players, even the horrible ones. Notice how Messanger's Speed has been played 212 times? There are so many factors clouding the data that it has absolutely no purpose besides to show you that bombs are good and bad cards are bad. Profound.
Anyway, they're both bad maindeck cards, so it's not really important. No one should be pleased if they have to maindeck either because they're short on playables. Both will inevitably be dead/borderline useless a huge percentage of the time in blind game 1s and even when they do something, it's almost never going to be impressive.
That's a lot of heated debate over jolt. I look again at Voynich list of commons it kills and that still makes me think it's a playable main deck card in RW aggro. Most of those are creatures people maindeck and play and will annoy or race the RW deck. In particular, removing the bad ones and the ones people usually keep to bestow (baleful eidolon is often in that list, but I've seen a lot of people play it out as a creature against aggro, so I'm keeping it in the list):
I'll be happy to kill any of those and there is enough of a probability that each deck I'll face has one or more of them that I won't mind main-decking jolt. It's not a top pick, not a top card to build the deck, but saying it's on the same league as gainsay and dark betrayal is completely off. It's also more aggressive than hold at bay.
Any arguments revolving matches against mid-range deck are pointless: aggro loses to mid-range in the long game. If they start to drop their asps, nemesis of mortal and other fatty, you better win really soon. There are few RW aggro cards that are good top-deck against mid-range. Jolt is hardly alone in that regard. You can hope to top-deck things like portent of betrayal, or some of the best combat tricks, but not much else.
Spark Jolt kills a number of playables, including a number of the best commons. It is one of the best outs to a turn 2 Ordeal, since it kills pretty much everything that would come down before to wield it. It's not bad as a 1-for-2 combat trick if you have no other out to an enemy creature. It synergizes with first strikers to kill attackers the opponent may have thought would live.
Those alone are reasons to consider maindecking 1 copy. In RW it has even more value as a cheap combat trick or blocker remover. It can randomly trigger heroic if used on your own creatures. Spark Jolting your own Fabled Hero can create some favorable combat situations, as can Spark Jolting a Phalanx Leader after blockers are declared. In a pinch, you can Spark Jolt a Wavecrash Triton to take an annoying Voltron off the board, but if you're in UR you're probably doing something wrong already.
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Pack 1 pick 1:
Servant of Tymaret
Ashiok's Adept (FOIL)
Pharagax Giant
Retraction Helix
Great Hart
Weight of the Underworld
Nyxborn Shieldmate
--> Fall of the Hammer
Karametra's Favor
Oreskos Sun Guide
Akroan Phalanx
Forlorn Pseudamma
Fanatic of Xenagos
Fated Retribution
Forest
Choices. hammer, helix, fanatic, phalanx...?
Pack 1 pick 2:
Swordwise Centaur
Epiphany Storm
Hold at Bay
Snake of the Golden Grove
Nullify
Cyclops of One-Eyed Pass
Necrobite
Sudden Storm
--> Kragma Butcher
Oracle's Insight
Ashiok's Adept
Lightning Volley
Fated Retribution
Plains
Almost took sudden storm. Blue is trng and that is a good play.
Pack 1 pick 3:
Setessan Oathsworn
Excoriate
--> Rise to the Challenge
Warchanter of Mogis
Forsaken Drifters
Stratus Walk
Nullify
Impetuous Sunchaser
Culling Mark
Springleaf Drum
Kraken of the Straits
Acolyte's Reward
Swamp
Excoriate is good, but I thought I'd cut red. Foolish, I know.
Pack 1 pick 4:
Charging Badger
Pharagax Giant
Sphinx's Disciple
Ephara's Radiance
Setessan Starbreaker
Impetuous Sunchaser
Deepwater Hypnotist
Crypsis
--> Vanguard of Brimaz
Graverobber Spider
Chromanticore
Mountain
Taking WW card is not quite what I'd like, but the options are notthat great.
Pack 1 pick 5:
Griffin Dreamfinder
Eye Gouge
Evanescent Intellect
--> Fearsome Temper
Hold at Bay
Setessan Starbreaker
Oreskos Sun Guide
Nyxborn Rollicker
Karametra's Favor
Heroes' Podium
Plains
This has consistently performed better than a plain aura should.
Pack 1 pick 6:
Nullify (FOIL)
Felhide Brawler
Ephara's Radiance
Cyclops of One-Eyed Pass
Culling Mark
--> Loyal Pegasus
Grisly Transformation
Gorgon's Head
Whelming Wave
Swamp
RW aggro.
Pack 1 pick 7:
Mortal's Ardor
Eye Gouge
Mortal's Resolve
Asphyxiate
Reckless Reveler
--> Thunder Brute
Mischief and Mayhem
Ragemonger
Plains
Costly finisher.
Pack 1 pick 8:
Griffin Dreamfinder
Eye Gouge
Siren Song Lyre (FOIL)
--> Hold at Bay
Setessan Starbreaker
Karametra's Favor
Heroes' Podium
Forest
Pack 1 pick 9:
Ashiok's Adept (FOIL)
Pharagax Giant
Great Hart
Weight of the Underworld
Karametra's Favor
--> Oreskos Sun Guide
Forest
Kinda surprised to get this back. Makes me feel hopeful.
Pack 1 pick 10:
Epiphany Storm
Hold at Bay
Snake of the Golden Grove
Nullify
--> Lightning Volley
Plains
Pack 1 pick 11:
Stratus Walk
--> Impetuous Sunchaser
Culling Mark
Kraken of the Straits
Swamp
Pack 1 pick 12:
Charging Badger
Ephara's Radiance
--> Setessan Starbreaker
Mountain
Pack 1 pick 13:
Evanescent Intellect
--> Heroes' Podium
Plains
Pack 1 pick 14:
--> Culling Mark
Swamp
Pack 1 pick 15:
--> Plains
------ THS ------
Pack 2 pick 1:
Bronze Sable
Messenger's Speed
Mnemonic Wall
Leonin Snarecaster
Feral Invocation
Fate Foretold
Thassa's Bounty
Lagonna-Band Elder
Setessan Battle Priest
Traveler's Amulet
Destructive Revelry
--> Phalanx Leader
Nylea's Emissary
Erebos, God of the Dead
Island
Starts well.
Pack 2 pick 2:
Lash of the Whip
Messenger's Speed
Read the Bones
Thassa's Bounty
Lost in a Labyrinth
Agent of Horizons
Fade into Antiquity
Prowler's Helm (FOIL)
Deathbellow Raider
Horizon Scholar
Anvilwrought Raptor
Insatiable Harpy
--> Anger of the Gods
Plains
Maybe this is a mispick, it totally wrecks my own deck. OTOH, I'm not a fan of raider.
Pack 2 pick 3:
Plains (FOIL)
Nylea's Presence
--> Minotaur Skullcleaver
Satyr Hedonist
Satyr Rambler
Leonin Snarecaster
Feral Invocation
Fate Foretold
Savage Surge
Setessan Griffin
Sentry of the Underworld
Swan Song
Swamp
Pack 2 pick 4:
Minotaur Skullcleaver (FOIL)
Nessian Courser
March of the Returned
--> Spearpoint Oread
Vulpine Goliath
Yoked Ox
Annul
Sedge Scorpion
Chronicler of Heroes
Shipwreck Singer
Akroan Horse
Forest
Pack 2 pick 5:
Prescient Chimera
Fleetfeather Sandals
Breaching Hippocamp
Vulpine Goliath
Asphodel Wanderer
Voyaging Satyr
Titan's Strength
Ray of Dissolution
Vanquish the Foul
--> Arena Athlete
Island
Pack 2 pick 6:
Nylea's Disciple
Stymied Hopes
--> Nessian Courser
Asphodel Wanderer
Voyaging Satyr
Titan's Strength
Benthic Giant
Savage Surge
Setessan Griffin
Plains
Afyter seeing multiple courser and voyaging satyr, I edge my bets, maybe I'll need to RG.
Pack 2 pick 7:
Nylea's Presence
Two-Headed Cerberus
Vulpine Goliath
Titan's Strength
Boulderfall
Savage Surge
--> Coordinated Assault
Psychic Intrusion
Swamp
Pack 2 pick 8:
Bronze Sable
Messenger's Speed
Mnemonic Wall
--> Spark Jolt
Triton Shorethief
Gainsay
Flamecast Wheel
Island
Pack 2 pick 9:
Bronze Sable
Messenger's Speed
Thassa's Bounty
Setessan Battle Priest
Traveler's Amulet
--> Destructive Revelry
Island
Pack 2 pick 10:
Messenger's Speed
Read the Bones
Thassa's Bounty
Lost in a Labyrinth
--> Prowler's Helm (FOIL)
Plains
Pack 2 pick 11:
Plains (FOIL)
Nylea's Presence
Satyr Hedonist
--> Setessan Griffin
Swamp
Pack 2 pick 12:
March of the Returned
--> Vulpine Goliath
Annul
Forest
Pack 2 pick 13:
Fleetfeather Sandals
--> Vanquish the Foul
Island
Pack 2 pick 14:
--> Nylea's Disciple
Plains
Pack 2 pick 15:
--> Swamp
------ THS ------
Pack 3 pick 1:
Gray Merchant of Asphodel
--> Divine Verdict
Sip of Hemlock
Annul
Titan's Strength
Yoked Ox
Voyaging Satyr
Wild Celebrants
Boulderfall
Setessan Battle Priest
Battlewise Hoplite
Ordeal of Nylea
Thassa's Emissary
Artisan of Forms
Plains
Nice pack except for RW, Well, verdict is okay, I guess.
Pack 3 pick 2:
Omenspeaker
Divine Verdict
Sip of Hemlock
Spearpoint Oread
Unknown Shores
Aqueous Form
Asphodel Wanderer
Boon of Erebos
Vaporkin
Hunt the Hunter
Triton Tactics
Insatiable Harpy
--> Heliod, God of the Sun
Plains
I don't have that much white yet, but I'm hoping. The first pack seemed better than 2nd, so I might get passed some white yet.
Pack 3 pick 3:
Ill-Tempered Cyclops
Guardians of Meletis
Battlewise Valor
Satyr Rambler
Observant Alseid
Scourgemark
Coastline Chimera
Rage of Purphoros
Wavecrash Triton
Cavern Lampad
Ordeal of Nylea
--> Fabled Hero
Swamp
What did I say?
Pack 3 pick 4:
--> Divine Verdict
Guardians of Meletis
Prescient Chimera
Demolish
Leafcrown Dryad
Fate Foretold
Portent of Betrayal
Deathbellow Raider
Borderland Minotaur
Flamecast Wheel
Tymaret, the Murder King
Mountain
Pack 3 pick 5:
Battlewise Valor
Viper's Kiss
--> Dragon Mantle
Blood-Toll Harpy
Benthic Giant
Voyaging Satyr
Borderland Minotaur
Shredding Winds
Rescue from the Underworld
Witches' Eye
Forest
Pack 3 pick 6:
Loathsome Catoblepas
March of the Returned
Spearpoint Oread
Breaching Hippocamp
Vulpine Goliath
Felhide Minotaur
Peak Eruption
Prowler's Helm
--> Titan of Eternal Fire
Mountain
That shoul dhave been odead?
Pack 3 pick 7:
Fleshmad Steed
Cavalry Pegasus
Lost in a Labyrinth
Fade into Antiquity
Satyr Rambler
Observant Alseid
Setessan Battle Priest
--> Soldier of the Pantheon
Forest
Geee a 3rd white rare, I'm being lucky here.
Pack 3 pick 8:
Fleshmad Steed
Nylea's Disciple
Aqueous Form
Silent Artisan
--> Purphoros's Emissary (FOIL)
Felhide Minotaur
Mogis's Marauder
Witches' Eye
Seems late a bit.
Pack 3 pick 9:
Annul
--> Titan's Strength
Yoked Ox
Voyaging Satyr
Boulderfall
Ordeal of Nylea
Plains
Pack 3 pick 10:
Unknown Shores
Asphodel Wanderer
--> Boon of Erebos
Vaporkin
Hunt the Hunter
Plains
Pack 3 pick 11:
--> Ill-Tempered Cyclops
Guardians of Meletis
Satyr Rambler
Scourgemark
Swamp
Very late.
Pack 3 pick 12:
Demolish
--> Fate Foretold
Flamecast Wheel
Mountain
Pack 3 pick 13:
Benthic Giant
--> Rescue from the Underworld
Forest
Pack 3 pick 14:
--> Loathsome Catoblepas
Mountain
Pack 3 pick 15:
--> Forest
The Deck
1 Soldier of the Pantheon
1 Loyal Pegasus
1 Vanguard of Brimaz
1 Arena Athlete
1 Phalanx Leader
1 Oreskos Sun Guide
1 Fabled Hero
1 Spearpoint Oread
1 Kragma Butcher
1 Minotaur Skullcleaver
1 Heliod, God of the Sun
1 Ill-Tempered Cyclops
1 Purphoros's Emissary
1 Thunder Brute
1 Titan of Eternal Fire
1 Spark Jolt
1 Titan's Strength
1 Dragon Mantle
1 Fall of the Hammer
1 Rise to the Challenge
1 Fearsome Temper
1 Coordinated Assault
2 Divine Verdict
Lands
9 Mountain
7 Plains
1 Hold at Bay
1 Prowler's Helm
1 Anger of the Gods
1 Vanquish the Foul
1 Impetuous Sunchaser
1 Lightning Volley
The Games
First match vs RW.
Yeah, the freaking mirror. We split the first two games. He's playing in the 3rd. My hand: mountains, 2 plains, phalanx leader, fabled hero, heliod, and something else. Sounds like an amazing hand right? heliod active on the 4th turns, barring removal. My opp goes: phalanx leader, another guy, ordeal of purphoros on leader, gets in for 3, then, after I play heliod... portent of betrayal n my hero. Yeah, that's like a gazillion damage on me (leader on 2 counters). Next turn he plays a guy and a titan's strength on phalanx, atatck with everything, trigger ordeal, kill my hero and I'm almost dead without having attacked once. Didn't draw a single heroic enabler the whole game.
PS: Obv during the draft, G was open.
p1p1 my pick ??? (your pick Fall of the Hammer)
Honestly two cards interest me here. I like retraction helix more than I should, and the Fall of the Hammer. I could have gone either way, so let's say I agree and take Fall.
p1p2 my pick Kragma Butcher (your pick Kragma Butcher)
So first thing to notice is that barring foils, a common is missing. To me that says one of two cards was in the pack - Fall of the Hammer or Akroan Skyguard. Not enough information to change our decision making, but worth noting. I like the blue cards, both Sudden Storm and Oracle's Insight are very good here, but I'd be fine taking the Kragma Butcher after Fall of the Hammer.
p1p3 my pick Acolyte's Reware (your pick Rise to the Challenge)
Uh oh. This pack worries me. The only payoff for red in BTT is in your first pack which means you better get good cards early or look to get out. Rise to the Challenge is not one of those cards. Out of a weak pack I pick the card with the highest upside.
p1p4 my pick Vanguard of Brimaz (your pick Vanguard of Brimaz)
p1p5 my pick Oreskos Sun Guide (your pick Fearsome Temper)
Red is starting to look pretty picked over, and we've seen three decent white cards. I move in.
p1p6 my pick Loyal Pegasus (your pick Loyal Pegasus)
I like creatures with italics better than most so I'd be momentarily tempted by the vanilla 5/2 (which I actually like in UR), but Loyal Pegasus is very good.
p1p7 my pick Asphyxiate (your pick Thunderbrute)
Ugh... this pack. The big dude I don't really want and a freakin' Asphyxiate. I'm not sure what I would do here, I might take the Asphyxiate with the thought that maybe black is once again criminally underdrafted and that I've not seen much red but I could see myself taking any one of the really crappy replaceable cards - Thunderbrute, Mortal's Ardor, or Reckless Reveler. In the end I think I take Ashpyxiate as a speculative pick.
p1p8 my pick Griffin Dreamfinder (your pick Hold at Bay)
Another clunker of a pack. This would be between the two white cards for me. I think I might give the edge to Griffin Dreamfinder with the idea of positioning myself as the WB drafter.
So yeah, not sure how the rest of the draft would have gone for me, but I would not be happy 8 picks in.
That said, I'd have sided it in against your opponent as you said - over one of the big guys.
:dance:Fact or Fiction of the [Limited] Clan:dance:
It does hit a fair number of things, but the fact that that's still a pretty short list would still make me disinclined to maindeck it.
I'd probably still run it over the sunchaser in most decks if that's what the choice was, but I think I'd prefer to run the hold at bay in the main deck until I saw that my opponent had a least a couple of targets for it.
Pretty much this. Spark Jolt is okay if you know they're running a few of those, but it's not a maindeck card unless you need to. Even that list of cards it trades with (assuming they have no trick) isn't really a list. Half of them are bad, would never be played without a trick ready unless curving perfectly and/or would almost never be played without being bestowed.
Again, no maindeck card should pretty much 1 for 1 in basically the best case scenario and regularly be almost a mulligan. Is that list of creatures more impressive than the list of black creatures that I could argue make Dark Betrayal maindeck-worthy? Nah. Just beacuse RW and UW are fairly busted in the format doesn't mean they're the majority of decks - Spark Jolt is horrendous against control/monster decks. The odds of them dropping one of their one or two targets (if they have one at all) and you having Spark Jolt are absurdly low. Great sideboard card - bad maindeck card. Hold at Bay is bad, but it's going to 1 for 1 a creature or gain you seven vital life against the decks Spark Jolt is good against already, possibly while triggering heroic at the same time.
I think this is a good example of the limitations of such stats. If you're behind, Hold at Bay will almost never sit in your hand...in the absolute worst case you'll cast it on yourself in to try to buy an extra draw step. If you're winning, on the other hand, it's quite possible you never need the card. This means that Hold at Bay's stats will be skewed towards showing up in losing matches.
Haha read the sentence. I definitely meant to say "is bad." Hence the "but... here's why it's better than Spark Jolt."
Except that's not even remotely how people actually use Scry when behind. I've seen it regularly. You just save it until they drop a 1 toughness drop (or try to do something to their Phalanx leader or whatever), which they don't always do. Not every time, sure, and it might not be right, but it happens frequently. Hold at Bay will get played basically every time you're behind. Also, when you're ahead, you'll still throw Spark Jolt down the second they drop something it can kill (or maybe even at their face) while Hold at Bay will often just sit in your hand to make sure you don't get blown out by a trick.
Anyway, those stats mean very little. They obviously ignore the situations you're likely to play or hold cards, they ignore deck quality (a worse card can win far more often than a better one by being part of a better deck more frequently), they ignore what's a good sideboard vs. maindeck card and they ignore the castability vs. impact if you're lucky enough to acst it (Boulderfall is good? Nah. Ashen Rider is the best card in BNG/THS/THS? Not even sort of.). Obviously Dauntless Onslaught is a fantastic bomb, but who here is going to pick it over Elspeth in any situation except pack 3 when you're already all-in aggro/heroic (if even then)? mtgGoldfish says they're the same quality in triple THS.
Not to mention that Spark Jolt is obviously a very good sideboard card against some decks. Hold at Bay is not. Honestly, all that's really necessary to refute your evidence is to point out that Gainsay is the second best uncommon in Theros by win percentage. Please maindeck it against me blindly.
I guess if you apply absolutely no thinking when using these stats, they are indeed useless. If instead you actually make an effort to interpret them I find them pretty darn useful.
First let's look at Gainsay, what should we take from it's high rating? Well, for one thing we should be looking to bring it in from the sideboard at every opportunity.
And please ignore all other information provided (like the average number of lands played 6.6/game) when interpreting the ratings of cards like Boulderfall.
But let's look at the case of Hold at Bay, and look at it vs other comparables (cheap combat tricks). There is literally no lower ranked card (unless you count defend the hearth). Now look at spark jolt vs it's comparables (situational answers) and we see it's better than cards like Last Breath, Stymied Hopes, Ray of Dissolution, etc...
As for Hold at Bay sitting in hand while winning, that's pretty obvious. It's there as disaster insurance. If you're far ahead, you're far more likely to lose because they manage to double block your Voltron guy or monster and play Coordinated Assault or because they throw a couple of burn spells at it (or some combination) than because they dropped a 1 toughness guy. However, them dropping a 1 toughness dude or you throwing Jolt at their face is far less impactful, but far more common than needing to use Hold at Bay to win. It's like having Cancel when you're far ahead. I guarantee that if the stats included what was in your hand when the game ends, Hold at Bay would gain ground, not that the stats are useful anyway.
Also, again, these are averages of all players, even the horrible ones. Notice how Messanger's Speed has been played 212 times? There are so many factors clouding the data that it has absolutely no purpose besides to show you that bombs are good and bad cards are bad. Profound.
Anyway, they're both bad maindeck cards, so it's not really important. No one should be pleased if they have to maindeck either because they're short on playables. Both will inevitably be dead/borderline useless a huge percentage of the time in blind game 1s and even when they do something, it's almost never going to be impressive.
Akroan Skyguard
Elite Skirmisher
Loyal Pegasus
Bronze Sable
Leonin Snarecaster
Vaporkin
Deepwater Hypnotist
Baleful Eidolon
Blood-toll Harpy
Satyr Rambler
Akroan Crusader
Sedge Scorpion
I'll be happy to kill any of those and there is enough of a probability that each deck I'll face has one or more of them that I won't mind main-decking jolt. It's not a top pick, not a top card to build the deck, but saying it's on the same league as gainsay and dark betrayal is completely off. It's also more aggressive than hold at bay.
Any arguments revolving matches against mid-range deck are pointless: aggro loses to mid-range in the long game. If they start to drop their asps, nemesis of mortal and other fatty, you better win really soon. There are few RW aggro cards that are good top-deck against mid-range. Jolt is hardly alone in that regard. You can hope to top-deck things like portent of betrayal, or some of the best combat tricks, but not much else.
Those alone are reasons to consider maindecking 1 copy. In RW it has even more value as a cheap combat trick or blocker remover. It can randomly trigger heroic if used on your own creatures. Spark Jolting your own Fabled Hero can create some favorable combat situations, as can Spark Jolting a Phalanx Leader after blockers are declared. In a pinch, you can Spark Jolt a Wavecrash Triton to take an annoying Voltron off the board, but if you're in UR you're probably doing something wrong already.