I hesitated going all-in with 3 CMC-and-less aggro because I didn't get amazing heroic cards. No phalax leader, no favortied hoplite, a single rider.
I did side in often the helm so that I could deal the final damage though, usually for on giant, cyclop or minotaur.
The Games
First match vs BG.
I make the mistake of keeping a one-lander on the play. Yes, risky, but my hand was: magma jet, double ordeal, fall of the hammer, akroan hoplite and minotaur skullcleaver. One land I'm I would be off in a big way. Alas, I draw none until turn 5. My opp, of course, is as understanding as a sour donut and chides me for keeping a one-lander. Then in the second game he keeps a all-swamp hand and doesn't darw a forest until the late game. Who's looking foolish now? (It does help that by the end of the game, I had a 9/9, vigilance first striker... with fearsome temper on.) Last game was balanced, but unfortunately, MTGO ate the replay.
Second match vs UB.
Lost the first two game replays, but we won one each. (Obv!) Lost in 3rd game again by a fleeping hair again. I had him dead on the board. He plays sudden storm, then throw two creatures to his erebos emissary leaving me at 3, then he gets land + nyxborn eidolon to bestow on his vaporkin to kill me off. Argh! I had a 4/4 skullcleaver, unblockable with helm and wearing ordeal or purphoros. He was dead. But won off the exact perfect sequence of cards.
That's the 4th loss I get in the second round of 8-4. Three of them were in the 3rd game of the match, almost always by a freaking hair! This is getting annoying.
Too bad you weren't able to get there. I don't think I would have picked differently (after the R p1p1), but I was wondering about the P2P1 Observant Alseid vs Akroan Hoplite pick. Did you give the Alseid consideration or is the Hoplite that much better?
Definitely in contention, but the hoplite is more aggressive and punishes slow starts better. It's also human to go with a potential cavalry pegasus. Neither is really better, as alseid bestows, but at that point I wanted something aggressive.
I don't know if I would have jumped into RW as quickly as you. I like to stay open in pack 1. All those times you said white/red seemed open, blue seemed more open. IMO Retraction Helix > Kragma Butcher (happened twice! Helix in pick 6?? wow), Nyxborn Triton > Nyxborn Shieldmate (unless already committed to low curve RW aggro), etc. I probably would have grabbed those instead and waited to see what else appeared. In hindsight, blue dried up and RW seems correct, but at that stage you never know.
Notice that you also passed somebody a REALLY sick black/blue pool. That may be the person you lost to in round 2. Drafting is zero sum game. I know that conventional wisdom is against hatedrafting, but it's also against trying too hard to send signals. If you just grab the best card in each pack in pack 1, it's less likely the guy next to you SEVENTH picks a 2nd Retraction Helix after seeing double Asphyxiate double Spiteful Returned. If he P1P1 Sudden Storm, then I wonder what colors he's picking..
By the time you've picked double Ordeal and double Akroan Hoplite, it sounds like you need to be in "flood the board with low cc".dec. Those cards are both significantly worse with 3-5 drops, since they capitalize on having lots of early attackers. To better enable that archetype, I would have prioritized combat tricks and efficient beaters and gone:
1) p3p2 Battlewise Valor or Dragon Mantle (you have Spearpoint Oread + Two-Headed) over the scryland.
2) p3p8 Arena Athlete over Stoneshock Giant (hoping to end the game before you'd ever have mana for Monstrous)
3) p2p12 Peak Eruption over the 2nd Cerebrus, since you're never maindecking both whereas Peak Eruption is a great SB card to keep RG monsters from dropping fatties.
4) p3p4 Leonin Snarecaster (-1 blocker) over another Skullcleaver, since you had more than enough 3cc
I probably would have grabbed a Titan's Strength or Chosen by Heliod somewhere over another 3cc body. I then would have maindecked both Arena Athlete's, Snarecaster and all the combat tricks. I get you were trying to avoid that sort of deck, but based on your beginnings of pack 2, that's the deck you're best slated to end up in IMO.
Ugh...and you passed p1p1 asphyxiate for fall of the hammer...which is likely just straight up worse than asphyxiate most times. And you did it twice...ouch.
Hmm Fall of the Hammer is a stronger and more versatile card in BTT. It's removal, a combat trick, and heroic enabler. Also very splashable while Asphyxiate demands 1BB.
The upside on Fall is definitely higher than Asphyxiate. It's instant speed, doesn't need the target to be untapped, and triggers heroic. If I know I'm in red, particularly R/W Heroic, I always want the card. However, red is such a bad color in BTT that I'd be inclined to take the Asphyxiate P1P1.
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Pack 1 pick 1:
Marshmist Titan
Nyxborn Wolf
Floodtide Serpent
Rise to the Challenge
Griffin Dreamfinder
Nyxborn Eidolon
Pheres-Band Tromper
Asphyxiate
--> Fall of the Hammer
Cyclops of One-Eyed Pass
Unravel the Æther
Ashiok's Adept
Spiteful Returned
Fated Return
Forest
A ton of black picks. Hammer is as good as any and I guess I'll push the others in black.
Pack 1 pick 2:
Marshmist Titan
Nyxborn Wolf
Floodtide Serpent
Setessan Starbreaker (FOIL)
Griffin Dreamfinder
Nyxborn Eidolon
Pheres-Band Tromper
Asphyxiate
Cyclops of One-Eyed Pass
Pheres-Band Raiders
--> Ghostblade Eidolon
Eternity Snare
Temple of Malice
Island
White, bestow, double strike. Fine, I'll take it.
Pack 1 pick 3:
Satyr Wayfinder
Pharagax Giant
Retraction Helix
Great Hart
Weight of the Underworld
Setessan Oathsworn
Cyclops of One-Eyed Pass
Necrobite
--> Kragma Butcher
Skyreaping
Searing Blood
Spiteful Returned
Island
Aggro.
Pack 1 pick 4:
Mortal's Ardor
Eye Gouge
Nyxborn Triton
Epiphany Storm
Hold at Bay
Nyxborn Rollicker
Karametra's Favor
Stratus Walk
--> Nyxborn Shieldmate
Black Oak of Odunos
God-Favored General
Plains
White may be open?
Pack 1 pick 5:
Marshmist Titan
Mortal's Ardor
Fearsome Temper
Crypsis (FOIL)
Reckless Reveler
Snake of the Golden Grove
Nullify
Thunder Brute
--> Archetype of Courage
Ragemonger
Plains
It has to be, right?
Pack 1 pick 6:
Reckless Reveler (FOIL)
Pharagax Giant
Retraction Helix
Great Hart
Weight of the Underworld
Cyclops of One-Eyed Pass
Necrobite
--> Kragma Butcher
Gorgon's Head
Mountain
Well, WR seems the correct place to be.
Pack 1 pick 7:
Marshmist Titan
Mortal's Ardor
--> Fearsome Temper
Reckless Reveler
Snake of the Golden Grove
Nullify
Eternity Snare
Heroes' Podium
Mountain
Pack 1 pick 8:
Charging Badger
Sphinx's Disciple
Ephara's Radiance
Setessan Starbreaker
--> Forsaken Drifters
Culling Mark
Grisly Transformation
Plains
Would there be any point of cuttting radiance?
Pack 1 pick 9:
Marshmist Titan
Floodtide Serpent
Griffin Dreamfinder
--> Cyclops of One-Eyed Pass
Ashiok's Adept
Fated Return
Forest
Pack 1 pick 10:
Marshmist Titan
Floodtide Serpent
Griffin Dreamfinder
--> Nyxborn Eidolon
Eternity Snare
Island
Pack 1 pick 11:
Satyr Wayfinder
--> Pharagax Giant
Great Hart
Necrobite
Island
Pack 1 pick 12:
Epiphany Storm
--> Hold at Bay
Stratus Walk
Plains
Pack 1 pick 13:
Reckless Reveler
--> Thunder Brute
Plains
Seems late.
Pack 1 pick 14:
--> Gorgon's Head
Mountain
Pack 1 pick 15:
--> Mountain
------ THS ------
Pack 2 pick 1:
Messenger's Speed
Mnemonic Wall
Cavalry Pegasus
Fate Foretold
Portent of Betrayal
Observant Alseid
Defend the Hearth
Agent of Horizons
Voyage's End
Staunch-Hearted Warrior
--> Akroan Hoplite
Rescue from the Underworld
Nylea's Emissary
Nighthowler
Plains
Ugh. Of course there won't be anything mighty sweet.
Pack 2 pick 2:
Minotaur Skullcleaver
Chosen by Heliod
Mnemonic Wall
Yoked Ox
Blood-Toll Harpy
Benthic Giant
Voyaging Satyr
Spearpoint Oread
Ray of Dissolution
--> Ordeal of Purphoros
Erebos's Emissary
Triton Fortune Hunter
Temple of Abandon
Forest
Pack 2 pick 3:
Nessian Courser
March of the Returned
Dragon Mantle
Traveling Philosopher
Two-Headed Cerberus
Aqueous Form
Silent Artisan
Cavern Lampad
Boulderfall
Horizon Chimera
--> Ordeal of Heliod
Triton Fortune Hunter
Mountain
Okay, double ordeal is nice.
Pack 2 pick 4:
Nylea's Presence
--> Minotaur Skullcleaver
Two-Headed Cerberus
Aqueous Form
Silent Artisan
Blood-Toll Harpy
Wavecrash Triton
Traveler's Amulet
Peak Eruption
Ordeal of Nylea
Thassa's Emissary
Swamp
Pack 2 pick 5:
Stymied Hopes
Lash of the Whip
Spark Jolt
Returned Phalanx
Coastline Chimera
Defend the Hearth
Vanquish the Foul
--> Akroan Hoplite
Prowler's Helm
Firedrinker Satyr
Mountain
Pack 2 pick 6:
Chosen by Heliod
Pheres-Band Centaurs
Unknown Shores
Crackling Triton
Portent of Betrayal
Commune with the Gods
Setessan Griffin
Dissolve
--> Fanatic of Mogis
Island
Pack 2 pick 7:
Bronze Sable
Ephara's Warden
Coastline Chimera
Rage of Purphoros
Setessan Battle Priest
--> Magma Jet
Anvilwrought Raptor
Sentry of the Underworld
Forest
Am I the only R drafter?
Pack 2 pick 8:
Titan's Strength
Benthic Giant
Annul
Felhide Minotaur
Shredding Winds
--> Arena Athlete
Sealock Monster
Mountain
Pack 2 pick 9:
Messenger's Speed
Mnemonic Wall
Fate Foretold
--> Portent of Betrayal
Defend the Hearth
Agent of Horizons
Plains
Pack 2 pick 10:
--> Minotaur Skullcleaver
Mnemonic Wall
Yoked Ox
Benthic Giant
Ray of Dissolution
Forest
Pack 2 pick 11:
March of the Returned
--> Two-Headed Cerberus
Silent Artisan
Boulderfall
Mountain
Pack 2 pick 12:
--> Two-Headed Cerberus
Silent Artisan
Peak Eruption
Swamp
Pack 2 pick 13:
Defend the Hearth
--> Prowler's Helm
Mountain
Pack 2 pick 14:
--> Crackling Triton
Island
Pack 2 pick 15:
--> Forest
------ THS ------
Pack 3 pick 1:
Demolish
Leafcrown Dryad
Gods Willing
Agent of Horizons
Fade into Antiquity
Satyr Rambler
Observant Alseid
Scourgemark
Triton Shorethief
Cavern Lampad
Horizon Chimera
--> Heliod's Emissary
Flamespeaker Adept
Steam Augury
Swamp
Ugh. Gods willing or emissary?
Pack 3 pick 2:
Battlewise Valor
Viper's Kiss
Dragon Mantle
Lagonna-Band Elder
Lost in a Labyrinth
Pharika's Cure
Rage of Purphoros
Shredding Winds
Boulderfall
Glare of Heresy
Nemesis of Mortals
Flamecast Wheel
--> Temple of Triumph
Mountain
Pack 3 pick 3:
Guardians of Meletis
Battlewise Valor
Loathsome Catoblepas
Annul
--> Wingsteed Rider
Wild Celebrants
Two-Headed Cerberus
Shredding Winds
Boon of Erebos
Artisan's Sorrow
Sentry of the Underworld
Dark Betrayal
Plains
Well, after a mighty dry spell of white after what the 1st pack promised, now at least I get one.
Pack 3 pick 4:
Chosen by Heliod
Pheres-Band Centaurs
Nylea's Presence
--> Minotaur Skullcleaver
Defend the Hearth
Leonin Snarecaster
Priest of Iroas
Felhide Minotaur
Shredding Winds
Chronicler of Heroes
Dissolve
Island
Pack 3 pick 5:
Sip of Hemlock
Bronze Sable
Messenger's Speed
Yoked Ox
Wild Celebrants
Benthic Giant
--> Setessan Battle Priest
Burnished Hart
Witches' Eye
Psychic Intrusion
Forest
Pack 3 pick 6:
Omenspeaker
March of the Returned
Fade into Antiquity
Returned Centaur
Commune with the Gods
Setessan Battle Priest
Horizon Scholar
Sealock Monster
--> Tymaret, the Murder King
Island
Pack 3 pick 7:
Guardians of Meletis
Loathsome Catoblepas
Breaching Hippocamp
Aqueous Form
--> Spearpoint Oread
Ray of Dissolution
Wavecrash Triton
Prowler's Helm
Plains
Pack 3 pick 8:
Bronze Sable
Ephara's Warden
Commune with the Gods
Lagonna-Band Elder
Scholar of Athreos
--> Stoneshock Giant
Arena Athlete
Forest
Pack 3 pick 9:
Agent of Horizons
Satyr Rambler
--> Observant Alseid
Scourgemark
Triton Shorethief
Steam Augury
Swamp
Pack 3 pick 10:
Lagonna-Band Elder
Lost in a Labyrinth
Boulderfall
--> Glare of Heresy
Flamecast Wheel
Mountain
Pack 3 pick 11:
Loathsome Catoblepas
Annul
Wild Celebrants
--> Sentry of the Underworld
Plains
Pack 3 pick 12:
Defend the Hearth
--> Leonin Snarecaster
Priest of Iroas
Island
Pack 3 pick 13:
Yoked Ox
--> Benthic Giant
Forest
Pack 3 pick 14:
--> March of the Returned
Island
Pack 3 pick 15:
--> Plains
Sure, the red flowed, but white was so dry after getting passed the archtype in pack one
The Deck
1 Nyxborn Shieldmate
2 Akroan Hoplite
1 Wingsteed Rider
1 Ghostblade Eidolon
1 Archetype of Courage
1 Observant Alseid
1 Spearpoint Oread
2 Kragma Butcher
3 Minotaur Skullcleaver
1 Fanatic of Mogis
1 Heliod's Emissary
1 Stoneshock Giant
1 Pharagax Giant
1 Thunder Brute
1 Ordeal of Purphoros
1 Ordeal of Heliod
1 Portent of Betrayal
1 Fall of the Hammer
1 Magma Jet
1 Fearsome Temper
Lands
8 Mountain
7 Plains
1 Temple of Triumph
1 Gorgon's Head
1 Setessan Battle Priest
1 Prowler's Helm
2 Two-Headed Cerberus
1 Glare of Heresy
1 Cyclops of One-Eyed Pass
1 Arena Athlete
1 Hold at Bay
1 Leonin Snarecaster
I hesitated going all-in with 3 CMC-and-less aggro because I didn't get amazing heroic cards. No phalax leader, no favortied hoplite, a single rider.
I did side in often the helm so that I could deal the final damage though, usually for on giant, cyclop or minotaur.
The Games
First match vs BG.
I make the mistake of keeping a one-lander on the play. Yes, risky, but my hand was: magma jet, double ordeal, fall of the hammer, akroan hoplite and minotaur skullcleaver. One land I'm I would be off in a big way. Alas, I draw none until turn 5. My opp, of course, is as understanding as a sour donut and chides me for keeping a one-lander. Then in the second game he keeps a all-swamp hand and doesn't darw a forest until the late game. Who's looking foolish now? (It does help that by the end of the game, I had a 9/9, vigilance first striker... with fearsome temper on.) Last game was balanced, but unfortunately, MTGO ate the replay.
Second match vs UB.
Lost the first two game replays, but we won one each. (Obv!) Lost in 3rd game again by a fleeping hair again. I had him dead on the board. He plays sudden storm, then throw two creatures to his erebos emissary leaving me at 3, then he gets land + nyxborn eidolon to bestow on his vaporkin to kill me off. Argh! I had a 4/4 skullcleaver, unblockable with helm and wearing ordeal or purphoros. He was dead. But won off the exact perfect sequence of cards.
That's the 4th loss I get in the second round of 8-4. Three of them were in the 3rd game of the match, almost always by a freaking hair! This is getting annoying.
Notice that you also passed somebody a REALLY sick black/blue pool. That may be the person you lost to in round 2. Drafting is zero sum game. I know that conventional wisdom is against hatedrafting, but it's also against trying too hard to send signals. If you just grab the best card in each pack in pack 1, it's less likely the guy next to you SEVENTH picks a 2nd Retraction Helix after seeing double Asphyxiate double Spiteful Returned. If he P1P1 Sudden Storm, then I wonder what colors he's picking..
By the time you've picked double Ordeal and double Akroan Hoplite, it sounds like you need to be in "flood the board with low cc".dec. Those cards are both significantly worse with 3-5 drops, since they capitalize on having lots of early attackers. To better enable that archetype, I would have prioritized combat tricks and efficient beaters and gone:
1) p3p2 Battlewise Valor or Dragon Mantle (you have Spearpoint Oread + Two-Headed) over the scryland.
2) p3p8 Arena Athlete over Stoneshock Giant (hoping to end the game before you'd ever have mana for Monstrous)
3) p2p12 Peak Eruption over the 2nd Cerebrus, since you're never maindecking both whereas Peak Eruption is a great SB card to keep RG monsters from dropping fatties.
4) p3p4 Leonin Snarecaster (-1 blocker) over another Skullcleaver, since you had more than enough 3cc
I probably would have grabbed a Titan's Strength or Chosen by Heliod somewhere over another 3cc body. I then would have maindecked both Arena Athlete's, Snarecaster and all the combat tricks. I get you were trying to avoid that sort of deck, but based on your beginnings of pack 2, that's the deck you're best slated to end up in IMO.