I got galvanized by comments on spoiler sites completely misevaluating cards, so decided to write another review for the set. It seems like having a baseline set of scores is a good way to sync everyone for discussing power level anyways, so hopefully this should help us calibrate our collective rankings. Updating this periodically as it's a ton of work.
General thoughts regarding the format:
There are almost no good defensive creatures at common, whereas there are a fair amount of good aggressive creatures at common. Removal/combat tricks seem to be pretty crappy in general, so this will probably be a very creature-based curve out based set. Of particular note, green got shafted as their guys are small so Prey Upon can't even kill a 3/2 until turn 5-6, blue has no common, instant speed ways to interact with their opponents board, and white has zero common combat tricks.
3/2 is the key stat line to think about this format. There are 0 horned turtles at common, and exactly one common 4 drop that profitably blocks a 3/2 (Gavony Unhallowed), so 3/2s are strong, and every color will basically be playing a bunch of 3 power guys on turn 3 and 4. This makes 4 toughness pretty strong.
Madness and Delerium are considerably weaker, but there are better enablers for the strategies as well. Given how coveted Ravenous Bloodseeker was, Olivia's Dragoon as a small set common is completely insane. Unfortunately, the payoffs are now way worse: Twins of Mauer Estate vs Weirded Vampire. Moldgraf Scavenger vs Backwoods Survivalists. I see far less reason to push hard for these specific synergies than in SoI, but you should probably try to pick up enablers in EDM, and the payoffs in SoI.
Archetype Thoughts roughly in terms of strength - Note that I'm not considering how SoI plays with these cards as that is a lot of work, so consider this analysis to be purely how it looks in EDM, and adjust weights based on how good the archetypes were in SoI.
RW aggro beatdowns - Play a bunch of on curve creatures and efficient combat tricks and go to town. Seems very strong simply due to how good whites creatures and removal are in the format. Red is shallower, but has some incredibly strong tempo plays and best aggressive 3 drop creature in the format with Brazen Wolves, so it shouldn't be too hard to cobble a beatdown deck together. Easy, simple, and should support many drafters at the table. Important cards include any on curve creature, any combat trick or removal spell in either color, Brazen Wolves, and Fiend Binder.
WB good stuff - WB tends to be just a good stuff deck in most formats, and I don't think this one is any exception. Luckily white and black both look pretty good in this format, so who needs a plan when you can just beat down with efficient creatures and removal. Delerium could be a subtheme here with Desperate Sentry and Thraben Foulbloods, but given the lack of good enablers in either color, this seems more like a bonus than a plan. There's also the Midnight Scavengers getting back a Desperate Sentry plan here, which just oozes of value.
GB midrange delerium - Thraben Foulbloods and Backwoods Survivalists get pretty big if you can enable delerium, and black looks like it has the removal to get you there. Important cards include any card with the word delerium or graveyard in it (Dusk Feaster, Liliana's Elite, Gnarlwood Dryad), removal, and good defensive creatures (Gavony Unhallowed). Both colors seem to have enough common cards to go with this plan that this seems like it should be one of the stronger decks in the format, but then again I may just be
UR Spells/Cantrips - Thermo Alchemist and Ingenious Skaab are bonkers in a spell heavy deck that just wants to cantrip, and there are some insane payoffs at uncommon in Weaver of Lightning, Curious Homunculus, and Shreds of Sanity. I don't see enough for the deck to support more than one drafter at the table since you're reliant on Drag Under and Take Inventory as your cantrips to generate enough spells to do crazy things, but that one guy is going to have a very strong deck on his hands. If the main plan doesn't work out, there's always the much less sweet, secondary plan of beating down with efficient early plans and frost breathing their guys in the mid-late game.
UG emerge with maybe splashes/delerium? - Go off with rampy emerge or bust. This seems a bit finnicky and reliant on combo type draws where you get the right enablers and emerge guys at the right time to efficiently summon your fattys. Suffers from a real lack of ways to interact with your opponent, but when this deck goes off, it goes off big. This deck does have some pretty powerful plays just at common/uncommon (turn 2 Ulvenwald Captive, turn 3 Enlightened Maniac, turn 4 It of the Horrid Swarm seems hard to beat.) so I'm sure it will support at least one drafter per table, but when the deck whiffs, it whiffs hard given its lack of ways to interact with the opponent. Enlightened Maniac into a Foul Emissary, Enlightened Maniac, Exultant Cultist seems very important to the plan, with Ulvenwald Captive and Primal Druid ramping you up to get to that point in the game. Bloodbriar seems like an important card to help stabilize the board and get value out of your sacrifices, and Prey Upon is at its best here as your guys are actually big enough to kill things. There is also a delerium deck in here somewhere that abuses Spontaneous Mutation and Grapple with the Past, and a three color control deck off the back of Primal Druid, but I'm too lazy to figure that one out.
WG humans/delerium - Play Crossroads Consecrator and a bunch of on curve white humans, ???, profit. Backwoods Survivalists and Desperate Sentry are your payoffs for delerium should you choose that route, and Wolfkin Bond never looked so strong. Green has zero common 2 drops for the archetype, but luckily white has a ton, and Field Creeper helps enable delerium in a pinch. White can carry most archetypes off of its common creatures, so this one should do well even though green doesn't add that much to the deck.
UB Graveyard Shenanigans - Also known as Spontaneous Mutation, the deck. The archetype is clearly supposed to be zombies, but when your common payoff for the archetype is Cemetary Recruitment, you should probably be looking to do something else to win games. Instead, you should notice that Laboratory Brute and Wailing Ghoul make your Spontaneous Mutation huge, and try to build around having a Swords to Plowshares and win with some uncommon win such as Liliana's Elite, Graf Harvest, Dark Feaster, Advanced Stitchwing, or Grizzled Angler. Most of the time you'll probably get there with a Wretched Gryff, Gavony Unhallowed, or Tattered Haunter, which is probably fine too. Control decks seem to be way worse nowadays so I'm hesitant to give this a higher rating as the commons seem to imply that this deck will have trouble winning games, but the deck should be far better than in SoI if you're the one getting all of the zombie payoff cards.
RB vampires and/or madness aggro - Olivia's Dragoon, the deck. Seriously though, the dragoon is so important to the madness deck that it's pretty close to a windmill slam outside of premium removal. Having a 2 drop enabler is just so important to the archetype that you would only pass on it for premium removal and the like. This seems a lot worse here than before since Weirded Vampire on turn 3 just isn't the same as a Twins of Mauer Estate. Important cards to the deck include any card with the text "madness" (Alchemist's Greeting and Distemper of the Blood are the two cards that change drastically in pick order for this deck) on it, and any card with the text "vampire" on it if you're going for the making Stensia Banquet a sorcery speed shock dream. It's probably going to be as hard in this set to get enough vampires to make the card good as it was in SoI to make Indulgent Aristocrat good, but the upside is there. Alchemist's Greeting is especially important in this deck since its the only deck that can reliably trigger madness. The dream case scenario just doesn't seem as good as the dream in SoI so this archetype seems weaker than in SoI, but the plan of beating face and making tempo plays seems like a good one to have in this format so the fail case shouldn't be too bad.
UW Skies - Ah the classic UW skies deck, where your common fliers are... Tattered Haunter, Hushwing Griff, Spectral Reserves, and Wretched Gryff and your payoffs for being in UW spirits are... Nebelgast Herald. Honestly this might as well just be a white deck with Drag Under, since I don't really see what this color combination is trying to do. This looks like the exact same problem the archetype had in SoI, where other archetypes are trying to do heavy tempo, synergistic things and the best you can do is play a bunch of 2 power fliers. Not really seeing it here, but maybe just curving out with fliers and bounce is good enough as the format seems more vanilla than SoI. Also you're playing white, so what could go wrong.
RG... Waxing Moon. - Red wants to be aggressive, but green has literally 0 even remotely aggressive 2 drop creatures at common. I guess the plan is to ramp into Vildin-Pack Outcast or flipped Ulvenwald Captive and pray, but this seems very weak to those common removal spells that white has. There aren't even any 4 drop creatures that can beat a 3/2 in these colors, so I don't really get what this deck wants to do. Mise wins with your only payoff of Waxing Moon? Seems bad, unless you get infinite werewolves in SoI, which you probably will because of how bad this seems in EDM. Luckily this was strong in SoI, so you can get all of your playables from there!
5.0: The best of the best. (Archangel Avacyn. Sorin, Grim Nemesis.)
4.5: Incredible bomb, but not unbeatable. (The Gitrog Monster. Descend Upon the Sinful. Jace, Unraveller of Secrets)
4.0: Good rare or top-tier uncommon. (Duskwatch Recruiter. Lightning Axe. Tireless Tracker)
3.5: Top-tier common or solid uncommon. (Breakneck Rider. Fiery Temper. Rabid Bite.)
3.0: Good playable that basically always makes the cut. (Graf Mole. Dauntless Cathar. Niblis of Dusk.)
2.5: Solid playable that rarely gets cut. (Stormrider Spirit. Reduce to Ashes. Thraben Inspector.)
2.0: Good filler, but sometimes gets cut. (Expose Evil. Inspiring Captain. Thornhide Wolves)
1.5: Filler. Gets cut about half the time. (Fork in the Road. Convicted Killer. Militant Inquisitor.)
1.0: Bad filler. Gets cut most of the time. (Moldgraf Scavenger. Vampire Noble. Seagraf Skaab.)
0.5: Very low-end playables and sideboard material. (Invasive Surgery. Ethereal Guidance. Open the Armory.)
0.0: Completely unplayable. (Harness the Storm. Vessel of Volatility.)
White
Blessed Alliance - 2.5 Celestial Flare that only hits attacking creatures, with random upsides. I'm not sold on this card being great simply given how white seems rather aggressive in this format, but 2 mana is still pretty efficient for this effect, and untapping your guys or gaining life adds some blowout potential in a racing situation. Remember that you can do the trick where you kill some guys during combat, and cast this post damage on their remaining attacker. This unfortunately is a nonbo with the untap mode since you need to untap predamage, but maybe is a "combo" with the lifegain mode? Bad in aggro ground based decks, and reasonable in flier decks.
Borrowed Grace - 1.5. Fortify has traditionally been a very borderline card, so does a Fortify with an additional 5 mana +2/+2 mode make the cut? My guess is no given how this format seems to be heavy on the trading, and how white doesn't seem to have many good ways to make tokens.
Bruna, the Fading Light - 4.5. 7 mana is a lot to ask, but the body is huge, and getting back anything makes this card a great stabilizing play. There are a good amount of humans at common, so you should generally be able to get something back. Vigilance is huge as well, since this lets you chip away at their health while maintaining a defensive position.
Choking Restraints - 3.5. I don't think the effect will really come up too often, but a 3 mana pacifism is still a 3 mana pacifism. Gets worse in a format with Emerge, but I don't think it's enough to make it that much worse. The effect will be used mostly to combo with Ironclad Slayer or enable delerium, which is fine in the late game but not something you necessarily need to do on turn 5.
Collective Effort - 3.5. An inconsistent but potentially more powerful Nissa's Judgment. Smite the Monstrous is an effect that has progressively gotten worse throughout the sets as creatures become more and more tiny, but given how most bombs have 4 or more power, it's usually worth the risk of the card sometimes being dead. This card's worst case scenario is pumping your entire team by +1/+1 which is probably fine at 3 or more creatures, but the best case scenario of killing their bomb, pumping your team, and removing that pesky pacifism is insane enough that this should be taken fairly highly. I expect the average case to be kill their guy and pump their team, which was what the judgment did most of the time, and that was considered the best green common/uncommon in Oath.
Courageous Outrider - 3.0. A 4 mana 3/4 is huge in this format, and this even grabs another card a fair amount of the time.
Dawn Gryff - 2.5. Still haven't found a format where I've been unhappy with a wind drake.
Deploy the Gatewatch - 0.0 + 0.75 per planeswalker your deck has. I'm guessing 3+ planeswalkers is what you need for this card to not constantly whiff, and if your deck has that many planeswalkers, running this card just seems greedy.
Desperate Sentry - 2.5 (2.0, 3.0 in delerium). Not entirely sold on this card as the below average case of your opponent being on the defense and just blocking this with a 0 or 1 power guy or letting it ping for 1 is pretty bad. This reminds me a lot of Dragon Egg which is great in a defensive deck but bad in an aggressive one, and the downsides are rather significant as a 3/2 does not trade with many of the cards in the format. Good with emerge.
Drogskol Shieldmate - 3.0 - Randomly ambushes bears and wins you combat while being an okay body by itself.
Extricator of Sin - 3.0 (1.5, 3.5 in delerium). The flip side of this card is great as 3/5 is very large with two good effects, but the unflipped side seems pretty bad if you can't reliably activate delerium. Sacrificing a land is not something you want to do on turn 3, so if you can't get delerium then this becomes a 3 mana 0/3 that upgrades your bear into a 3/2, or a late game 0/3 and 3/2 if you sac a land, which is pretty bad. Definitely a reason to be in delerium, but be prepared to abandon it if you don't get there.
Faith Unbroken - 2.0. The tempo swing you get from this card probably justifies the times your opponent has the perfect answer and blows you out. There aren't too many instant speed ways to answer this, but getting 2 for 1ed still feels bad. Good in aggro decks, bad in control.
Faithbearer Paladin - 2.0. Lifelink is very good on this body as it blocks most lower drops, but 5 mana is somewhat clunky. Lifelink is a great ability to have on these types of bodies though as it just clogs through ground, so this should end up doing work most of the time. Unfortunately, all of the other creatures at this mana just outclass it, and you can't afford to be running too many 5 drops.
Fiend Binder - 1.5 The aggro ground based decks want it, but the stats are so weak on turn 4 that you really need to be able to put enough pressure on your opponent that they trade the early turns so that this guy doesn't just get eaten by a 2/2.
Geist of the Lonely Vigil - 2.0 (1.5, 3.0 in delerium). This seems like a mediocre card in decks that can't get delerium, and a pretty good one in decks that can. While this card does stop bears and trade or block most 3 drops, white seems like it wants to be aggressive in this format, and this card is the opposite of that if it can't ever attack.
Gisela, the Broken Blade - 5.0. Dies to murder, but I don't see how the game is remotely loseable if your opponent can't answer this immediately. Comes down on 4, beats every single creature in the format that isn't a giant emerge creature, and represents an 8 point life swing every time it connects. Basically Baneslayer Angel.
Give No Ground - 1.0. 4 mana is a lot to spend on a combat trick that can get blown out by something. The ridiculous amount of toughness and ability to block multiple creatures does it make possible for your guy to maybe eat two of your opponents guys, but the cost is a bit prohibitive. This also means that you need to use this card on defensive, which leaves you prone to being blown out by a removal spell or trick of their own. There doesn't seem to be that many instant speed ways to answer this though, so maybe this plus the ability to fog your opponents attacks is good enough. Defensive combat tricks that cost 4 mana are bad, and I should feel bad for suggesting otherwise.
Ironclad Slayer - 2.0. 3 mana 3/2 with random minor upside, sign me up! Combos with Choking Restraints, but this happens so late in the game that I don't think it is relevant enough to boost this card by that much. Better in BW where you can get Boon of Emrakul back.
Ironwright's Cleansing - 0.5. Strictly sideboard as there aren't enough targets to make this mainboardable.
Lone Rider - 1.5 (1.0 + 0.5 per instance of pump/lifegain triggering you have in the deck). Terrible if you can't flip it, but absolutely bonkers if you can. One interesting thing about the card is that it is very good at bluffing combat tricks. Your opponent doesn't really want to block this since that means that you get to eat their guy for free if you have the trick, so I imagine that this will just get through a fair amount of damage before they decide to do something about it. Unfortunately there doesn't seem to be too many reasonable ways to trigger this, so this seems like an unreliable speculative pick with a very mediocre fail case of being a 1/1 first strike.
Long Road Home - 1.5. Essence Flux was a pretty niche card, and this one feels roughly the same. Some upside of getting the +1/+1 counter guaranteed and being able to exile your opponents creatures, but not high enough that I would want to maindeck the card. Seems more of a sideboard card against removal auras and such.
Lunarch Mantle - 1.5 (1.0, 2.0 in GW with Bloodbriar. I'm quite fond of +2/+2 and flying auras for 2, and this card isn't that far off from that. Not sure how many Ironclad Slayer and Lone Rider you need to make this worth the risk, but as is it's probably too risky to be considered good. One very important I didn't notice with this card at first glance is with Bloodbriar. Play this card on bloodbriar, sac all your lands, and laugh as you attack with an 8/9 monster for lethal on turn 6. This combo might actually be good enough to propel both cards up even higher in rating, as the threat of getting in for 8 flying damage out of nowhere if you have a bloodbriar on the table is pretty insane. Sure you sac all your lands, but that doesn't really matter if it kills them while they're tapped out.
Peace of Mind - 1.0. White has 0 madness cards, and the madness cards in this set just are not very good. This is so much worse than Call the Bloodline because it just doesn't generate any board presence, and spending a card for 9-12 life over the course of a game will not normally make the cut. Maybe you have enough madness cards to be worth it, but it seems unlikely.
Providence - 0.5. Maybe if you were in a racing situation and needed to gain 20 life then this card would be somewhat useful? I'm not going to rule it out as completely unplayable, but it's close.
Repel the Abominable - 1.0. Cards that make your guys indestructible but give no power or toughness are generally bad as they don't help you win the board back if you are behind. This card is very similar with the added drawback of needing you guys to be humans and theirs to not be, which seems like too many hoops to jump to make this viable.
Sanctifier of Souls - 3.0. Even though the effect seems a little expensive and the base body is a little weak, being able to threaten the pump is a big deal, and converting all your dead cards into spirits is a ton of value that can take over the late game. However, getting creatures in your yard isn't always free, and the base stats are low enough that when this card is bad, it is pretty bad.
Selfless Soul - 3.0. Very relevant ability on an efficient 2 drop flier seems good to me. The ability isn't as good as it looks since it's onboard, so don't expect this to blow your opponent out as they can easily play around it. Generally I expect it to read: “sacrifice selfless soul to give one of your guys protection from a color”, which is still pretty good on a 2 mana 2/1.
Sigarda's Aid - 0.5. I was surprised to see that there actually are a decent amount of P/T equipment in the set that have large equip costs. That still doesn't make this card anywhere near good/consistent enough to be played, but I'm sure I'll face that one guy who built around this card and drew the nuts to blow me out at some point.
Sigardian Priest - 3.0. 1 mana tappers tend to be very close to premium removal spells, and this one doesn't even get pinged to death to boot. White is light on mana sinks so you should generally have mana to activate this card. Only tapping humans is annoying against white and random humans in the set, but at least werewolves aren't humans anymore pre-flip.
Spectral Reserves - 2.0. 2/2 in fliers for 4 mana seems borderline, and I don't know if there are payoffs for tokens for this to ever be great.
Steadfast Cathar - 2.0. 2/3 on offense is strong, but a 2/1 on defense is mediocre filler.
Subjugator Angel - 3.5. Enables alpha strikes on a clogged board, while being a relevant body if that doesn't finish the opponent off. Given how white should be fairly aggressive in this set, this card should do a ton of work.
Thalia, Heretic Cathar - 4.0. Ignoring the mostly irrelevant nonbasic land clause, 3 mana 3/2 first strike is a great rate in of itself, and creatures entering the battlefield tapped greatly slows down your opponent. Creatures are generally small this format so 3/2 first strike should beat basically anything in combat, meaning that this card will singlehandedly put a ton of pressure on your opponent.
Thalia's Lancers - 3.0 (3.0, 4.0) with a legendary card in the deck. There aren't that many legendarys that aren't first picked so this should be thought of as a 5 mana 4/4 first strike most of the time, which is very big in this format. If your deck does have a legendary though, then this card becomes pure value, especially considering how the legendary card itself is probably a bomb by itself.
Thraben Standard Bearer - 1.0. I suppose a late game land sink isn't the worst, but I don't see that many ways to take advantage of these tokens.
Blue Advanced Stitchwing - 3.5. 5 mana for a 3/4 flier is above the curve, and this one has a very relevant ability in the lategame. Add in how 3/4 is big in this format, and you have a very good finisher on your hands.
Chilling Grasp - 2.5. Frost breath with minor upside, not too much to say here. Madness doesn't seem to really be a thing this time around, but the format seems tempo based so this should do a fair amount of work. The lack of good spells in the format (especially at instant speed) should make this worth more than it normally is. Madness is largely irrelevant given the lack of enablers in blue, but might do something in UB.
Coax From the Blind Eternities - 0.0. Why would you have an Eldrazi in the sideboard and play this card when you can just maindeck the Eldrazi? Stone unplayable.
Contingency Plan - 0.5. Tasigur's Scheming was not playable in a format with delve, and this format has way less graveyard synergies. Maybe if enabling delerium was the difference between winning and losing the game for your deck, but even then…
Convolute - 2.0. I'm usually okay with playing a singleton 3 mana counter in most formats, and given the lack of options that blue has here, this should be no exception.
Curious Homunculus - 2.5 (1.0, 3.5 in UR or UB spells). I wouldn't play this unless my deck had 9+ spells, but the card is great in those particular decks.
Displace - 0.5. I don't really see any combos outside of Enlightened Maniac, so this should be strictly sideboard for pacifisms and the like.
Docent of Perfection - 4.5. The base body is huge, with very large upside. I imagine that most of the time you only get a couple of guys out of this in an average deck, but that's a lot of value for 5 mana. Living the dream of casting 3 spells after playing it obviously wins you the game, but getting to that point seems tough given how you need to play it on turn 5.
Drag Under - 3.0 >> 2.5. Sorcery speed does hurt this a bit as it reduces the blowout potential during combat, but cantripping eliminates the unsummon weakness of being card disadvantage. Great if you can cast this on an emerged guy, and I imagine this will swing tempo by 2-3 mana in your favor. Blue also tends to want to have many spells that replace themselves, so this should be a key card for the color that you will gladly play at least 1 of in your deck. This is essentially a Time Ebb that is slightly better when you are behind (since you want to draw more cards into your outs) and slightly worse when you are ahead (time ebb denies your opponent a draw into their outs).
Drownyard Behemoth - 4.0. Cast this on your Enlightened Maniac for 4, eat their biggest guy, attack next turn with a huge 5/7. This requires some amount of setup in that you need a guy on board, but the ridiculous amount of stats on this guy and innate protection should make it incredibly powerful. Elder Deep-Fiend - 4.5. Cast a 3 drop. Turn 4 during combat after they attack, cast this tapping down all of their lands. Laugh when they can't kill it in response to the cast trigger, as your 5/6 eats their 3 drop, they skip their turn 4, and you come barrelling down with a 5/6 on turn 5. Even if this doesn't eat a guy, time walking them while making your guy huge is probably good enough to outtempo your opponent in the majority of games.
Enlightened Maniac - 2.0 (1.5, 3.0 in Emerge) A very good emerge enabler, as keeping the 3/2 around still adds a good amount of board presence if the emerge guy gets removed. Even if you can't emerge something out of it, a 4 mana 3/2 that gains you 3 life and has random equipment/mass pump synergy should still be a card that you play as filler to slightly above average filler most of the time.
Fogwalker - 1.5. 1/3s are just bad in general, especially in a format full of 3 power creatures. Skulk and the other effect adds some upside, but I doubt it's enough to make the card actually good as it just doesn't impact the board enough.
Fortune's Favor - 2.0 (2.5 if you care about the graveyard) 4 mana instant speed divinations are generally playable, and this card seems like a better version of that most of the time. Putting stuff in the yard can help with random graveyard/delerium synergies, and you can hold up a counterspell while at it. Bad if you aren't doing anything with the yard though.
Geist of the Archives - 3.0. Scry 1 is very close to looting, and looting is very strong at generating incremental advantage. Attach that to a 0/4 body that just blocks everything in the format, and you should have a very solid card.
Grizzled Angler - 3.0 (1.5 + 0.75 per 2 colorless creatures you have in the deck + 0.5 if you care about delerium.) 3 mana 2/3s are generally mediocre, but the flipside of this card is huge if you can get it online. Wretched Gryff is probably going to be the main enabler for this, but I would run all of the Field Creepers I could get my hands on if I had this card in the deck (mostly because blue just doesn't have any good colorless creatures).
Identity Thief - 1.5. My gut instinct is that this is a Heliod's Emissary that really sucks at blocking most of the time, which is fine in an aggressive deck that wants to get through on the ground, but that doesn't really fit blue's theme in most formats. There is a ton of utility with the card though since you can get EtB triggers on your own guys (Enlightened Maniac), or flicker them out of a Sleep Paralysis, but it being so abysmal on defense and costing 4 makes me question its worth.
Ingenious Skaab - 3.0 - Average base stats with two very relevant abilities should make this card a workhorse in the blue decks. I'm hoping this gives blue the common tools needed to get out of being a joke in SoI.
Laboratory Brute - 1.5 (2.5 in UB zombie shenanigans). Hill giant with minor upsides of being a zombie and milling. The upsides seem like they'll actually be relevant in most decks (Delerium in W/G, GY/Zombie stuff in B, milling the “spells in GY matter cards in R”), so this card will probably see play in most decks. However, hill giants are actually pretty bad in this format given how 3 drops just trade with them, and the synergies that this guy provides isn’t relevant in UW or UG emerge.
Lunar Force - 1.5. My pick for the card that looks completely unplayable, but just turns out to be marginally unplayable. The worst case scenario is that they play an irrelevant 1 mana spell and completely outtempo you. The average case scenario though is that this trades for your opponents worst 2-3 drop in hand, and you come out even on tempo since they can't generally fit another play in. I don't think this will be necessarily good, but it'll at least trade for something, which is more than other spells can attest to.
Mausoleum Wanderer - 2.0 (1.5 + 0.25 per spirit you have). This ends up being a Judge's Familiar most of the time which was fine but borderline. You need to play ~3 spirits to make this do enough damage to be worth it, but I don't see enough spirits at common for this to be considered a high pick.
Mind's Dilation - 0.0. So you cast this do nothing on turn 7, your opponent then proceeds to reveal a land, alphas for lethal because you did nothing last turn, and you just lie down and try not to cry.
Nebelgast Herald - 3.0. 2/1 flier for 3 with random upside of being a spirit and on average preventing 3 damage or forcing through more damage sounds good to me.
Scour the Laboratory - 3.0 (2.5, 3.5 in delerium). Drawing 3 cards for 4 mana is extremely spicy, and merely good at 6 mana. This format seems tempo based which makes me be wary of playing this card in decks that can't get delerium, but the raw power level is there.
Spontaneous Mutation - 2.5 (2.0 + 0.33 per “enabler” that gets at least one card in the yard that you have) This card looks unassuming, but can be very strong. 1 mana is just so cheap for this type of effect, as it can be used as a combat trick that can't even be blown out since it sticks around post combat, and you do not need that many cards in the yard for it to be blue Swords to Plowshares. As soon as you get 2-3 cards in the yard, this becomes playable, and it's amazing anywhere from 3 onwards. Laboratory Brute makes this a -4/-0 flash for 1, for instance. My pick for the most initially underrated card in the set.
Tattered Haunter - 2.5 - Being terrible on defense and weak to ping effects means that the card doesn’t fit well in defensive decks, which drops the rating a little bit given how UG and UB tend to not really want this type of card. However, 2 power fliers for 2 have always been decent, and the damage you get out of this little guy most of the time should make up for that.
Summary Dismissal - 1.5. Sometimes you just need a 4 mana counterspell. This has upside in this format of stopping emerge triggers, but not really enough to justify its cost.
Take Inventory - 1.5 (1.5 + 0.75 per copy you have in your deck) 2 mana for a cantrip is not great, but it is much better in a set where blue is full of prowess and “instants/sorceries” matters cards. Casting the second copy and beyond is clearly pure value, so this will probably be a very large role player for the blue deck. Cards that it helps enable include Spontaneous Mutation and Ingenious Skaab, which seems like the most powerful cards blue has at common. However, I wouldn’t speculate with this at the 2.0 level, but would gladly take it over random filler.
Turn Aside - 1.5. This reminds of Dispel, which is a great sideboard card and a passable maindeck card if your deck is low on interaction and has high value creatures to protect. The main issue here is that the format just does not have that many great removal spells, so this can be a blank in some games.
Unsubstantiate - 2.5. 2 mana instant speed unsummon with upside should be good enough to make the cut most of the time, especially in a format low on interaction.
Vexing Scuttler - 3.5. 4/5 is large, and it doesn't take that much work to get an instant or sorcery in the yard to take advantage of the upside.
Wharf Infiltrator - 1.5. There seem to be a fair amount of common answers to it, whether it be silly 0/3 walls or ping effects. The upside of it being a looter is pretty high, but it's probably not worth the times where it ends up being a do nothing 1/1.
Wretched Gryff - 2.5. I tend to think of emerge as being an aura cast on the creature, since sacrificing a dude to get a bigger body is roughly equivalent to putting an aura on him. The obvious downside is that you can't attack with the creature somewhat balances out the fact that its impossible for your opponent to 2 for 1 you in response to casting the aura. Thinking about it that way, emerging this on a bear or 3 mana 2/3 reads 4 mana: target creature gets +1/+2 (or +1/+1) and flying, draw a card. This seems reasonable enough as it turns your crappy guy into a more relevant threat for the midgame, and has the upside of just being a 7 mana 3/4 flier cantrip. However, it can be very clunky and inconsistent, and the average good case isn’t that great tempo wise.
Black
Abundant Maw - 1.5. 4 toughness is big enough that this card should attack favorably into most boards, but unlike most emerge cards, the trigger isn't strong enough to recoup your investment in case they do have the answer for it, making it weaker than the other cards.
Boon of Emrakul - 3.0. Does a decent job at killing all but the emerge creatures in the format, and enables delerium to boot.
Borrowed Malevolence - 2.5. 1 mana for either of these effects is efficient albeit unexciting, and for 3 mana you can live the mini-dream of pinging off your opponents X/1, and having your bear survive the trade with their bear. The flexibility of the card should make it viable in most situations, and I can't see myself cutting the first copy of it in most decks. There are a fair amount of targets for this at common as well.
Cemetary Recruitment - 1.0 (1.0, 2.0 in UB zombies). The card is bad filler if you don't get a good zombie back, and reasonable card advantage if you do. The problem is how many zombies are actually worth getting back and can actually impact the board at the point when you play this card?
Certain Death - 2.0. Expensive unconditional removal spells are generally a necessary evil as a 1 of in most limited decks, but the difference between 5 and 6 mana is significant enough for this to not be that great. The minor upside is nice, but given how creatures are all small in this format, you are generally losing tempo in the exchange, and I would only be truly happy mainboarding this unless I just didn't have any other mainboard answers to huge emerge guys.
Collective Brutality - 3.5. -2/-2 for 2 at sorcery speed is still pretty decent, and trading a land for one of their spells is a lot of upside in the mid-late game. This unfortunately doesn't kill the two best common 3 drops in the format though Ingenious Skaab, Brazen Wolves, but the two alternative modes (and madness enabling) are enough upside to bump it up a bit.
Cryptbreaker - 4.0. Turn 1 this, turn 2 make a zombie, turn 3 make a zombie, turn 4
start phyrexian arenaing yourself seems like a solid way to take over a game. Part of me wonders if this is a little bit too slow and prone to getting outtempoed, but the value can get out of control with this card.
Dark Salvation - 4.0. The worst case scenario is Eyeblight Assassin or a strictly better Farbog Boneflinger for 5 that gives something -2/-2, which is already deserving of a 3.5 rating. Add in the existence of reasonable common zombies in Gavony Unhallowed and Thraben Foulbloods, even having one guy onboard suddenly turns this card into -2/-2 for 3 or -3/-3 for 5, which just makes the card ooze with value.
Distended Mindbender - 4.0. Emerging this on turn 4 out of a 3 drop seems like a very good way to win the game. 5/5 on turn 4 will be the biggest thing on the board, and making your opponent discard the removal spell that kills this creature along with their biggest threat that can contest this creature seems very hard to beat. While discarding cards isn't normally that strong, being attached to such a big body that can be cast early in the game should make this card on average very strong. Late game this just ends up being an expensive 5/5 which is bad, but the casting this card on curve scenario should make it good enough to be taken very highly.
Dusk Feaster - 2.5 (2.0, 3.5 in delerium) 5 mana for a 4/5 flier is insane, whereas 7 mana for the same guy is borderline. Black doesn't have many natural ways to enable delerium and will probably have to rely on the secondary color, but the upside is probably good enough to take this early and try to make it work. 4/5 being huge in this format helps mititgate the worst case of having to cast this for 7.
Gavony Unhallowed - 3.0. 2/4 blocks all of the silly 3/2s in the format, and having this onboard makes trading for your opponent a total nightmare. This will easily be the largest thing on the board after even a single trade, and given the lack of efficient combat tricks which have traditionally been the bane of the 2/4, I expect this card to be one of the common creature pillars of the format.
Graf Harvest - 2.5 (2.0, 3.5 in UB). The card is a good late game mana sink, but 4 mana for a 2/2 menace zombie is very slow if you are fighting for the board and not ahead. My hunch is that the card is only truly insane if you can curve out with aggressive zombies, which only seems reliable in UB. Worth noting that there are 0 2 drop 2 power zombies in the format, so I think you need to curve turn 3-4 zombie to make this card actively good, which is only reliable in UB. Bonus points if you can self mill yourself (GB in particular)
Graf Rats - 2.0 (1.5 + 1.0 per copy of midnight scavengers you have in your deck). There are a lot more 3/2s then there are 2/3s for 3 in this format, so the rats by themselves is a fine card. Add in the option to transform into a Chittering Host late game, and you have some real upside.
Haunted Dead - 3.0. 3/3 in stats split over two bodies for 4 is okay, and being a late game land sink gives it enough flexibility to be a solid card overall. This is slightly too inefficient for me to consider it as good as something as a Nearhearth Chaplain, but I can't imagine ever cutting it from my deck.
Liliana, the Last Hope - 4.0. This is incredibly annoying to face turn 3. Creatures seem small enough in this format that her +1 ability will just eat all of your opponent's x/1s, and make their biggest guy unable to attack profitably into your board (if you have any). Her inability to put you back into a losing game or get you extremely ahead makes her a little off from a 4.5, but the general utility makes her better than most cards.
Liliana's Elite - 3.0 (2.5 + 0.25 per instance of self mill you have). The format seems very trade centric, so I expect this to roughly be a turn 3 2/2, turn 4 3/3, etc. Throw in some self mill cards, and this suddenly looks very good. While the body seems inefficient, given how creatures are tiny in this format, having 3 dudes in your yard by say turn 6-7 should make this the biggest guy on board in most cases.
Markov Crusader - 2.0 (1.5 + 0.33 per vampire you have) 3 toughness on a 5 drop is terrible in this format, but the life swing is huge if you can somehow sneak a hasty attack in with this guy. Unfortunately all 3-4 drops will just end up trading with this guy so he won't do much besides trade and gain you 4 life, but the upside is there.
Midnight Scavengers - 3.0 (+0.25 per copy of graf rats you have in your deck) Gravediggers have always been respectable in just amount every limited format. The restriction on this card is a pretty big deal since you can't get back bombs, but the 3/3 body that gets back your 3 drop is probably good enough to never really cut this from your deck. Chittering Host also seems like a huge beating, so extra value if you have rats in your deck.
Murder - 4.0. Simple, clean, efficient. Instant speed is huge, and there are a good amount of huge mana things for this to destroy.
Noosegraf Mob - 3.5. This is both psuedo-removal evasion and a punisher effect in disguise. A common scenario I see happening is you attacking or blocking with this card, and then your opponent using a combat trick to shrink it and eating it for psuedo free. You get a couple of 2/2 zombies out of the deal, but 2/2s matter less once you are at the point in the game where you can cast this. On the other hand, this card leaves a zombie behind when it gets removed, and is pseudo immune to Pacifism type effects. My guess is that this card will rarely be punished as removal and tricks are bad, and a 5/5 is huge, so this should do some work.
Oath of Liliana - 1.5. Edicts are generally too unreliable to be happy playing in the mainboard, especially ones that cost 3.
Olivia's Dragoon - 3.0. Madness is way worse in this set than SoI so I don't think you're going to get too much value out of the card, but a bear with random upsides is still a bear with random upsides.
Prying Questions - 1.0. “But this keeps you even on cards!” Right, but this costs you 3 mana in tempo, and your opponent can generally put a card back on top that does not impact their plays for the upcoming turns. So grats, you just spent 3 mana to deal 3 damage and have zero impact on the board. I suppose this could be better than the 19th or 20th land, but it's pretty questionable.
Rise From the Grave - 2.0 (1.5 + 0.5 per payoff+enabler you have). The dream is to discard an emerge creature with the dragoon and rise it, but black just does not have any naturally big creatures. You can probably make this good with some work, but most of the time this is just going to get back a 3 or 4 drop for 5 mana, which seems pretty mediocre.
Ruthless Disposal - 3.0 (3.5 with tokens). Generally should read: Trade your worst creature and a land for their two best creatures. Yes, this is technically card disadvantage since you 3 for 2 yourself, but you're generally trading your worst guy, a land, and the card for their two best guys. The main issue with the card is that your worst guy and their second best guy might not be that far off in most cases as the creatures in the format are all very similar, leaving this card as roughly as good just a Reduce to Ash. Using a token would probably be the best case scenario for this, but you need to work to make it good.
Skirsdag Supplicant - 2.0. Madness enabling doesn't matter as much given the lack of good madness cards in the format, and 2/3s are not well positioned in this format. This one does have the upside of closing out games if you are ahead at a cheap price though, so I can see this card performing way better than he looks.
Strange Augmentation - 1.0. Yeah, there will be that one guy that gets two of these on a creature when you have no answer, but most of the time this is just very close to stone unplayable.
Stromkirk Condemned - 3.5. These effects are deceptively good because discarding cards does not cost you any tempo, making the trade very unfavorable for them. Tack on how this enables madness and can pump your entire team, and you have a fairly strong card on your hands.
Succumb to Temptation - 2.0 I don't know how meaningful the instant speed is when black does not have any instant speed ways to interact with the opponent, but divination is usually good enough to be welcome in the majority of decks.
Thraben Foulbloods - 2.5. 3 mana 3/2 with random delerium and zombie upside, sign me up!
Tree of Perdition - 2.0. How much does your deck want a 0/13 wall for 4? Defensive decks probably love the card, offensive decks not so much.
Vampire Cutthroat - 1.5. Uncontested this is a 1 mana 2 damage life swing, but you're going to feel bad the moment your opponent plays one of the main ways to punish a 1/1.
Voldaren Pariah - 3.0. Probably a 5 mana 3/3 flier a lot of the time which is a 2.0, but trading your board for theirs and leaving a 6/5 flier on the board seems like enough game-winning upside to make the average case worth it. Random madness synergies as well.
Wailing Ghoul - 1.0. Liliana's Elite is the only black card I see that would make me consider playing this card. Defensive delerium decks don't seem like a thing this format given how there just aren't any payoffs for the archetype, and the 1/3 body just gets run over by all of the 3 power guys available.
Weirding Vampire - 2.0. Hill giants don't seem great in a format full of 3/2s, but minor upsides bump this up half a point to the realm of playability.
Whispers of Emrakul - 1.5. Discarding at random is a lot better early on since your opponent can get mana screwed, but a single card generally isn't enough to get it done. I'm not sure how relevant this effect will be by the time you get delerium, so I tend towards a lower rating here.
Red
Abandon Reason - 3.0. This rating should drop down to a 2.5 as people are more familiar with the format and play around it, but I’m sure you’ll get many 2 for 1 blowouts at the prerelease by playing this card. Remember that toughnesses are low and instant speed interaction is low, so +1/+0 and first strike will just win you combat most of the time.
Alchemist’s Greeting - 2.5 (2.5 +1.0 in RB madness) Slightly worse Reduce to Ash when you can’t madness it, but very efficient if you can. The main issue here is that there aren’t many good madness enablers outside of black, so I expect this to be a reduce to ash in most cases, which falls more under the “one of necessary evil expensive removal spell” that decks tend to play.
Assembled Alphas - 3.0 Expensive, but it’s basically impossible to profitably enter combat with this card, as it is impossible to double block with smaller creatures and will trade with anything that has 8 or less toughness. It working both on offense and defense is a pretty nice bonus, which should make this card a reasonable curve topper. 6 drops are a bit expensive though given the existence of pacifism in the format.
Bedlam Reveler - 3.5 (roughly 2.0 + 0.2 per instant/sorcery you have in the deck) The first question is at what point mana cost does this card become reasonable, and my guess is somewhere in the 5 range, which means that you need 2-3 instants in your yard. In order to get 2-3 instants in your yard over the course of a normal game, you probably need to be playing 7ish, which seems doable for most decks in the format. Seems to be enough upside that I would consider going out of my way to make the card good, and the fail case of it being a 6 mana 3/4 prowess that loots away or refills your hand still seems pretty solid.
Blood Mist - 2.5. Completely dead if you are behind, and amazing when you are ahead. Red will probably be more ahead than behind given the aggressive slant on their creatures so you’ll probably be more ahead than you are behind in red. The nice thing about this card compared to something like Nahiri’s Machinations and Stensia Masquerade is that double strike does effectively add power to your board, so this enchantment can quickly spiral out of control if your opponent’s board can’t deal with the first strike.
Borrowed Hostility - 2.0. My main concern with the card is that it can’t force your bear through their 2/3 for 1 mana. In most cases, I imagine that you just give your guy first strike and eat their 3/2 with your 3/2 for 1 mana, but costing 4 mana to trade up is too inefficient for me to actively look for the card.
Brazen Wolves - 3.0. One of the common pillars of the format. The body blocks your opponents bears, and a 3 mana 4/3 on offense is just incredibly aggressive, and if your opponent doesn’t trade with a 3/2 immediately, the damage you get out of this card will quickly win you the game. This also makes 2/xs for 3 significantly worse as they can’t deal with it.
Collective Defiance - 4.0. Efficient removal spell that randomly burns your opponent and refills your hand.
Conduit of Storms - 3.0. The ability to transform this into a 5/4 for 5 mana should make the card impossible to cut for most decks, despite 2/3s being relatively weak.
Deranged Whelp - 2.5. Menace is incredibly annoying to deal with on a 2 drop, so I expect this to get in for a fair amount of damage. Would probably be a 3.5, but there seem to be a fair amount of common ways to punish an x/1 in this format.
Distemper of the Blood - 1.0 (1.5 in RB). It's almost like a strictly worse version of Senseless Rage for the madness decks. Trample is relevant, but I would much rather have the persistent effect than the trample damage on this type of card. With enough Olivia's Dragoon, any madness card is playable, but the worst case scenario for this card is so bad that I'm hesistant to even play it in the madness deck.
Falkenrath Reaver - 2.5. Bear with relevant creature type, what else is there to say.
Furyblade Vampire - 2.0 (1.5, 3.0 in RB). The amount of damage you can force through with this card is borderline disgusting in a christmasland scenario, but forcing the discard at the beginning of combat makes this card really awkward. Say you cast this turn 2, they play a bear, you cast a Weirding Vampire. At this point, you have to give up your madness enabler if you attack into their bear, since they're obviously going to block given how you just tapped out. Meanwhile, Olivia's Dragoon gets in for 2 flying damage in the air and lives to tell the tale another day. The sheer amount of power on the card might make it still good enough to be good since 4/2 trample for 2 is pretty good in the late game where you can just pitch excess lands, but the amount of times it's awkward makes me question whether or not it's actually a good enabler. The 1/2 body is also pretty useless compared to even a 1/3 Ravenous Bloodseeker that can at least block a bear. Madness is pretty important for RB though, so this will probably still be a high pick in those colors, and a risky pick otherwise.
Galvanic Bombardment - 3.0 (3.0 +0.33 per copy you have in the deck). Shock looks to be great in the format of 3/2s, and the tempo gain off of playing even the second copy is probably high enough to carry the game for you if your deck is remotely aggressive.
Hanweir Garrison - 4.0. Forgetting the meld effect which generally won’t go off, I can’t see you losing a game where you get to attack with this twice. The fact that the tokens EtB tapped and attacking just adds so much pressure, so all you really need to do is fill your deck with combat tricks and it should be very hard to lose. That being said, I can see many games where this just gets walled by a 3/3 or trades with a 3/2, so it’s not in the unbeatable category just yet.
Impetous Devils - 2.0. I imagine this being close to a 4 mana Asphyxiate that 3s them, and that card was pretty good in BnG. The Devils are weak to some key 1 mana instants in the format that can ping it off though, so it gets a ding for inconsistency.
Incendiary Flow - 3.5. Efficient removal that kills most pre-turn 5 creatures in the format.
Insatiable Gorgers - 1.5 (2.5 in RB madness). Not liking the 3 toughness if able clause in a format of 3/2s, even if the body just does a ton of damage if it connects. I don’t see myself cutting this from madness, but it’s borderline otherwise.
Make Mischief - 1.5, Should just be Eyeblight Assassin, and this format has a ton of x/1s. However, eyeblighting dudes isn’t something that aggressive decks really want to do, so I would generally only play the first one in most decks.
Mirrorwing Dragon - 4.5. After rereading the card a few times, his effect boils down to being Zada, Hedron Grinder with Hexproof. If your opponent removes this, then he ends up wiping his entire board which is clearly not a good way to win a game, and you playing something like Uncaged Fury on this just wins you the game. However, keep in mind that if your opponent casts a pump spell on the dragon, then their team gets the pump so this card can backfire on you, but in most cases, it’s pretty insane.
Nahiri’s Wrath - 4.5. Based on my logic for Ruthless Disposal, this should also be a bomb that just wrecks your opponent. This card has the drawback compared to the disposal of requiring you to have enough CMC in your hand to cover the toughness that you need to kill, and the quality of the cards that you discard will probably be higher than the quality of cards you discard/sacrifice to the disposal. This is also useless in a topdeck war while the disposal is still online assuming you have a single dude on board and sandbag a land. That being said, this does just still wipe their entire board if you have the cards for it, and this is better than the disposal at dealing with smaller creatures if you just discard a 3CMC thing and 2-3 lands to wipe their 4 3 toughness guys. This also costs you far less tempo than the disposal as it only costs 3 and you do not have to invest the mana you spent to play the guy in the first place. Despite the inherent card disadvantage, this should just be a one sided wrath most of the time that single handedly gets you back in the game if you are behind, or wins you the game if you are ahead.
Otherworldly Outburst - 2.0. The effect is very weird, but you can think of this as a slightly weaker Unnatural Endurance most of the time. The 3/2 body is probably going to be similar to the guy you’re playing this on, so most of the time it’s as if your guy just regenerated. That card was very playable, and I expect this one to only be slightly worse.
Prophetic Ravings - 1.0. The risk of getting 2 for 1ed is almost never worth the upside of you turning something into a looter, barring you are all in on madness or something.
Savage Alliance - 4.0. After reading the card a couple of times, I’ve settled on this card being 4 mana instant: Deal 3 damage to target creature and 1 damage to all other creatures your opponent controls, which seems pretty close to Cone of Flame to me.
Shreds of Sanity - 2.5 (1.5, 3.5 in the spells deck). Turn 6 cast this, getting back Alchemist’s Greeting and Galvanic Bombardment. Immediately discard the greeting for 4, cast bombardment for 2 on something else. I wouldn’t play this card unless I was in the 9+ spell deck, but this seems very good anytime you can get back high quality spells.
Smoldering Werewolf - 3.5. The base bodies are a bit weak, but the triggers have such high potential that I would be shocked if this wasn’t a very high pick.
Spreading Flames - 3.0. This reminds me of Serpentine Spike in terms of durdliness. The payoff is certainly there, but I’m not sure if it’s necessarily worth committing to a card that requires you to get to 7 mana. Stensia Banquet - 1.5 (1.0 + 0.2 per vampire you have). This card isn’t actively good unless you have 2 vampires on the board, and that seems relatively unlikely in this set given the vampires available. This is amazing in the deck with 10+ vampires, but most of the time will just not do anything meaningful.
Stensia Innkeeper - 2.0. More hill giants with random upsides! Being a vampire in red is relevant, but I’m not entirely sure how much the land clause is. Best case scenario on curve this prevents your opponent from playing a 4 or 5 drop that they were depending on, average is just that they end up playing a 3 drop that they would have played anyways. Worst case is this is a hill giant that has the text vampire on it, which isn’t that bad of a place to be.
Stromkirk Occultist - 3.0. Mostly just a 3 mana 3/2 with random madness upside. More often than not this will probably get you a card during the trade due to the trample damage which is nice, but it doesn’t seem better than good removal.
Thermo-Alchemist - 3.0 (2.5, 3.5 in spells) - 3 toughness blocks all of the other bears, while this card just slowly chips your opponent out of the game. Lobber Crew was a very strong card, and this guy is faster and probably better in general. Obviously not as great in aggro decks as he can’t snowball the board for you, but even then, he’ll probably get 4-5 damage throughout the course of the game which is pretty good for a 2 drop.
Vildin-Pack Outcast - 2.5. A bit slow, but having a late game mana sink is generally good, and this one has trample to boot.
Weaver of Lightning - 3.5 (2.5, 4.0 in spells). Same issues as the alchemist in aggro, but this card is an absolute monster in the spells deck. Getting an extra damage on your spells suddenly makes Galvanic Bombardment into Arc Lightning, and chained cantrips like Unsubtantiate into Take Inventory destroy your opponents 2 toughness creatures. Coupled with how a 1/4 reach just blocks almost all of the 3 drops in the format, and this will probably end up being strong enough to go into the spells deck for.
Green
Backwoods Survivalists - 2.5 (2.5, 3.0 in delerium). 4 power allows this to trade with most of the 4-6 drops in the format, but 3 toughness is bad as it trades down with 3/2s. +1/+1 on the delerium is very important for this card, as 5/4 is significantly more difficult to deal with.
Bloodbriar - 2.5 (1.5 + 0.33 per sac card you have, 3.0 in GW). A 3 mana 2/3 is bad, but a 3 mana 3/4 is amazing. You probably need 3 or so sac matters cards in order to consider this actively good, but it has the potential to get there. Notable sac cards besides emerge in the format include Choking Restraints, Lunarch Mantle, and Terrarion, so this card might actually be significantly better in GW. I also somehow completely forgot about clues, which makes this card essentially Tireless Tracker and should give enough things to sac to make this a good card to pick up reasonably early and actively look for enablers. The lack of good enablers in EDM still probably makes this card a tad too inconsistent to be rated higher, but this may actually be a 3.0 once the format is figured out. This should be a 3.0 in GW, where the interaction with Lunarch Mantle is insane and probably shouldn't be in the format at common.
Clear Shot - 3.5. This seems pretty close to Murder in green, which is a very good place to be. It does have a real downside of needing a guy big enough to fight the other creature (say you're facing down a huge 5/7 crab), and being prone to blown out by something like murder.
Crop Sigil - 2.0 (1.5 + 3.0 in delerium). You specifically need to be in a delerium or graveyard deck for this card to matter, but this seems like a very good turn 1 investment/enabler for the archetype.
Crossroads Consecrator 1.0 (1.0, 2.5 in GW humans) - Anointer of Champions was pretty good in origins, but this costing a mana and requiring the creature be human makes the card far worse. That being said, these types of cards thrive around just the threat of activation, so if you are curving out with humans then this card can be pretty good. The main issue is getting the 2 drops to do this as green's 2 drops are a bunch of non human durdles, but that deck will definitely want one of these guys.
Decimator of Provinces - 4.5. Casting this on a 4 mana 3/3 reads 5: +4/+4, trample, EtB: your other dudes have overrun. Needless to say, it's probably going to be hard to lose the game if you are anywhere near even on board when you play this.
Eldrich Evolution - 1.5 (1.5+1.5 if you have an insane bomb to get out with this). This is kind of like an aura that upgrades your guy to something that costs 2 more than it, which is generally something like +2/+1 and passable for 3 mana.
Emrakul's Influence - 0.5. I've seen enough mediocre build around me enchantments to know that 4 mana is way too expensive to spend on a do nothing enchantment that doesn't generate immediate board impact.
Emrakul's Evangel - 3.0. This messes up combat math considerably if you leave it untapped, but will probably end up being a 3 mana 3/2 the vast majority of the time. There are a couple of ways to abuse this ability in green (It of the Horrid Swarm in particular), so this can sometimes be a huge blowout.
Foul Emissary - 3.0 (1.5 + 0.5 per emerge card you have). You could do a lot worse than a 3 mana Elvision Visionary, and this one even finds creatures for you to emerge out of him. The upside of casting emerge on him is high enough that I think he's worth speculating on around pick 4-7 picks, but you do run the risk of just not having enough emerge creatures.
Grapple with the Past - 2.0 (1.5, 3.0 in delerium). This will on average probably get 2-3 card types in the yard and either draw the next creature in your deck or get back a bomb that died, which seems key for the delerium deck, and mediocre otherwise. Unfortunately the delerium payoffs in the format don't seem that high, so I wouldn't prioritize this too highly.
Hamlet Captain - 3.0 (2.5, 3.0 in a humans deck). This card adds a lot of pressure to the humans deck if you can curve out with humans and protect it with a combat trick or two. Plus it's a bear, so it can't be bad!
Ishkanah, Grafwidow - 4.0 (2.5, 4.5 in delerium) A glorified Watcher in the Web without delerium, and a complete monster with delerium. The upside is large enough that I would be actively looking to move into delerium just to get this active, since the extra spiders add an insane amount of almost always relevant stats to the board.
It of the Horrid Swarm - 2.0. 4/4 is a good enough statline that I would probably play one of these in most green decks in the Kessig Dire Swine slot for most green decks. The 1/1s help mitigate some risk of your opponent having removal for it, and you get a solid pile of stats for the cost.
Kessig Prowler - 3.0 - weak to pings is a liability, but being able to trade with bears and having late game relevance should make this a solid pick overall.
Mockery of Nature - 1.5. Great if you can get an artifact/enchantment off of the trigger, and mediocre otherwise.
Noose Constrictor - 3.0. Wild Mongrel! This trades a card in your hand for your opponents bears, but that is a great exchange since it cost you 0 tempo. This even has reach to boot.
Prey Upon - 2.5. Remember Unnatural Aggression in BFZ and how that was almost stone unplayable because greens creatures just did not have big enough stats to use the card effectively? Now look at the common creatures green has in this format, and think about how hard it would be to kill a 3/2 or even a 2/3 given what you see. One thing this card does have going for it is that it can be extremely efficient as it's a great stabilizing play in the later turns of the game when your It of the Horrid Swarm can prey upon their 4 drop for 1 mana, but you need to jump through some hoops to get there.
Primal Druid - 1.5. (2.5 in 3+ color control) I'm leaning towards this being a bad card, but I can't tell for sure. This is mediocre to sac to emerge since you can't use the land towards the emerge cost and probably don't need the mana by that point. Your opponent also decides if they want to attack into it, so the ramp probably won't end up being relevant too often. I'm guessing this ends up being Natural Connection on turn 4-5 that gains you 5-7 life by blocking a bear a couple of turns before you cache it in by blocking their 3/2, which seems fine for big mana decks, but puts a lot of control on your opponent for deciding when you get the land. The thing is with the other common 2 drop being Ulvenwald Captive, I wonder if green is forced to play the ramp/midrange strategy, in which case this card gets a lot better. Also one of the few ways to enable a splash (sort of.)
Shrill Howler - 3.0. The filp side is tough to block and generates a lot of value, but 1 toughness is a liability with all of the pings running around at common. The card is strong enough that I don't think I would ever cut it, but it seems a little off from being truly amazing.
Somberwald Stag. 3.5. Destroys target 2 power creature for 5 mana. Sometimes you get blown out by a trick, other times you get a sweet 5 mana 2 for 1.
Spirit of the Hunt - 3.5. The trigger doesn't seem relevant enough in the majority of cases for this to be more than a 3 mana 3/3 flash, but even that in of itself is still a pretty good card with considerable upside.
Swift Spinner - 1.5. Yeah this eats bears and 2 power fliers, but it only trades against 3/2s, and gets eaten by all of the 4 mana 3/3s in the format. The card is hanging by a thread at 2.0 since it does effectively deal with the early common fliers, but I wouldn't be surprised if this was actually a 1.5 that is relegated to the sideboard due to how poorly the body matches up.
Tangleclaw Werewolf - 3.0. 4 mana 2/4s are reasonable defensive bodies in this format, and the flip side of this card looks very powerful in the late game. 7 mana is quite expensive though, so expect this to mostly just be a 2/4.
Ulvenwald Captive - 2.5. Given how it is very hard for green to be aggressive in this format given their 2 drops, most green decks should be midrange/fatty based, in which case a 2 drop that ramps you and randomly transforms into a late game beater seems perfect for. Mana dorks usually are weak because they fall off in the late game due to not having anything to ramp into, but this guy solves its own problem!
Ulvenwald Observer - 1.5. The value is real, but creatures are pretty small in this format, and I can't help but think that this is really just a Kessig Dire Swine in disguise. The main problem with big dumb green creatures tend to be that they don't stabilize against fliers, get chump blocked, or lose a ton of tempo when they are removed, and this card does not really do anything to prevent that. There aren't really many 4 toughness guys in the format either, so I'm not even sure if this is better than old Kessig Dire Swine
Waxing Moon - 1.0 (0.0 + 0.5 per Ulvenwald Captive, Kessig Prowler, Shrill Howler in your deck). Spending a card to transform your wolf and be open to getting blown out by a removal spell seems pretty loose, but we need to consider the times where doing this can single handedly win you the game. If we look at the werewolves that can do this, It seems like playing the card on any of the 3 mentioned above might get you there single handedly, in which case it might be worth the risk.
Wolfkin Bond - 2.5. Knightly Valor ended up being a very sweet card, and Wolfy Valor is probably not that far off. Not having vigilance is a pretty big deal, but bears should do well in this format, and +2/+2 makes the guy you put this on a big threat that has to be dealt with, in a format light on interaction.
Woodcutter's Grit - 2.0. 3 mana combat tricks are typically pretty mediocre, but given greens utter lack of ways to interact with your opponent in this format otherwise, this is a card that will see a lot of play in your green decks.
Emrakul, the Promised End - 0.0 (4.5 in dedicated delerium control). The card is obviously insane if you can cast it, the problem is whether or not you can cast it. The last format has shown that most average decks will only manage creature/sorcery/instant in your yard at best meaning that this card costs 10-11 and is mostly unplayable simply because casting it is impossible. However, for the 18 land delerium decks in the format that want to durdle, I don’t see there being a sweeter win condition than this.
Eternal Scourge - 3.0. On one hand it can’t die from removal, on the other hand a single targeted trigger causes you to lose 3 mana in tempo and recast it (Smouldering Werewolf, half of a Borrowed Malevolence, Make Mischief. I assume that this balances out to just it being a 3/3 for 3 on average, which is a solid body.
Bloodhall Priest - 3.5. Sometimes this will be a 3 mana 4/4 that singlehandedly wins you the game with its attack triggers, but the average case involves this being a 4 mana 4/4 with random upside in the lategame, which is still pretty good considering how big 4/4 is in this format. Black having the 2 mana bear enabler at common makes the upside on this card very relevant. Seems a bit inconsistent to take over something like murder though.
Campaign of Vengeance - 1.5. Draining your opponent is nice and all, but when was the last time that a 5 mana enchantment which didn't directly impact board presence was playable? This seems great with the silly 1/1 spirit tokens roaming around and can probably steal games where your tokens go uncontested and just ping them through the air, but it can also lose games where you're behind on board and play a 5 mana do nothing enchantment.
Heron's Grace Champion 3.5. Ambushes bears, swings combat and races into your favor. Seems like a pretty good card to me.
Gisa and Geralf - 4.0. The effect will win all grindy games, but the question is how many relevant zombies you can get in the yard that you actually want to cast. I imagine this will be a 4 mana 4/4 that randomly casts a few zombies from the yard or enables delerium, which is a solid package for the mana.
Grim Flayer - 3.5. This card takes over the game if you can force it through a couple of times (which is easy with tricks and trample), and in the worst case is a bear that eventually deleriums into a 4/4 if you can't. The main issue here is that greens only combat trick in the format is Woodcutter's Grit, which prevents this card from being truly insane as most of the time it will just trade and die.
Lashweed Lurker - 3.5. Playing this on a 3 drop is mostly the same as playing an aura that says +2/+1, Time Ebb your opponents best guy for 4 mana. Time Ebb is worth a card by itself, so this card seems like a strong tempo play.
Mournwillow - 2.5. More 3 mana 3/2s with upside, yay! I don't think this will fit that well with what GB is trying to do in this format (green has trouble doing anything even remotely aggressive), so it will probably end up only being merely okay as opposed to insane.
Ride Down - 2.5. RW can be built rather aggressively this format, and this is just terminate in an aggressive deck. Terrible if you are behind, but amazing if you are ahead which you probably will be in RW.
Spell Queller - 3.5. The amount of tempo that you get from this card just seems absurd. On turn 3, you cast this and exile whatever their turn 3 or 4 play is. If your opponent removes it the following turn, then this ended up being a 3 mana 2/3 flash that frost breaths their guy which is fine, and if your opponent doesn't have it, then this just ends up being a terminate on a stick. Tempted to give this a higher rating since the best case scenario is insane, but meh.
Tamiyo, Field Researcher - 4.5. Draws you infinite cards and can temporarily protect itself. It being 3 colors and its requirement of being relatively even on board prevent it from being completely unbeatable, but it's close if you can cast her on turn 4 with some kind of board.
Ulrich of the Krallenhorde - 4.5. Both triggers are amazing in the typical aggressive decks. His weak base stats means that he won't singlehandedly swing a losing game for you, but there's more than enough upside to consider him a bomb.
Cathar's Shield - 1.5. (probably 1.0, but maybe by some miracle it's actually a 2.0) I wonder if the fact that creatures slanting towards higher power than toughness makes this card better than completely unplayable, which is what any previous equipment which only boosted toughness has ever been rated. Vigilance can be a pretty big deal and 3 mana for +0/+3 is actually somewhat efficient. Going bear into this on turn 3 equip lets it rumble with any 3/2s out there, and the tempo loss is actually not that bad compared to most equipment.
Cultist's Staff - 2.0 (2.5 in decks with a lot of early creatures and not many cards that cost 5+ mana) +2/+2 is very big, but this is rather mana inefficient since it costs 5 mana for only +2/+2 of benefit. That cost is fine if your curve mostly ends at 4, but I wouldn't play this in decks that go higher.
Field Creeper - 2.0 (2.5 in green). This may as well be a green card, since if you need a 2 mana 2 power creature and/or need to activate delerium, then this fits the bill. 1 toughness is a liability, but when your alternatives are a 1/2 defender or a 0/3, then it's probably worth taking the risk.
Geist-Fueled Scarecrow - 2.5 (2.0 if your curve has 5 drops, 3.0 in aggro). 4/4 for 4 is gigantic in this format, and the downside is not that big of a deal in most situations as many mana sinks are on activated abilities as opposed to casting big creatures. Wouldn't be surprised if this got +0.5 across the board after the format shakes out.
Slayer's Cleaver - 1.0. I would be very surprised if the format is slow enough that 7 mana for +3/+1 ends up being playable.
Soul Separator - 1.0. This looks like 8 mana for a reanimate effect that gets you a random 1/1 flier, which seems way too expensive for what it does.
Stiticher's Graft - 1.5. This seems amazing on vigilant creatures, and terrible on everything else. Paying 3 mana for a Lava Spike that can get chumped seems bad, so I don't see this being played outside of a few specific decks. Worth noting that you can make a single huge defender with this which seems interesting, but then again you can't move the equipment until it dies so it might seems questionable. I see very few vigilant creatures at common, so I am not hopeful.
Terrarion - 2.0 (1.0, 2.5 with delerium). The nightmare is drawing this in a topdeck war, as you need to wait a turn before it replaces itself. However, this is an incredibly efficient way to put an artifact in your graveyard for delerium, and the majority of colors have cards that care about delerium.
Thirsting Axe - 1.5. (2.0 in flying token aggro) What a bizarre card. The main use I can see for this is for aggressive decks to either force trades on their tokens, or convert 1/1 fliers into 4 extra damage to the face. Since this doesn't work at all on defense (your guy on defense didn't deal combat damage to a creature so you need to sacrifice it), this card works much more like trumpet blast than a real equipment. However, it seems efficient enough that if you do have a bunch of fliers or expendible bodies lying around, then this will probably end up winning the game over the course of a few turns for you.
Lands
Geier Reach Sanitarium - 2.5 as an enabler, 0.0 otherwise. You need to have some way to break the symmetrical effect, and the main ways to do this in the format are either to enable delerium, or madness something out so if your deck can do this, then this card seems like a relatively free (albeit tempo expensive way) to do it. The main issue is that 3 mana is a lot to spend on this effect since your opponent gets it as well without spending the mana, so you need to have reasons to play it.
Hanweir Battlements - 2.0. Spending 2 mana to give a guy haste is not efficient enough for me to want to take this land much higher, but it's fine if you're in the colors.
Nephalia Academy - 0.5. There are not enough playable discard spells to make me consider mainboarding this, but it could be a decent side in against that one guy who plays them.
Borrowed Grace is much better than it looks. Removal and creature interaction (especially at instant) is at a minimum, so White has plenty of time to just flood the board and set up a giant game changing attack. Plus, there are at least some cards that promote a go-wide strategy at common, namely It of the Horrid Swarm.
Faithbearer Paladin is one of the only defensive creatures available to white, and it can swing the game with an errant buff spell.
I think your first two points nailed the format in terms of creature combat. Note that there are a bunch of common 4 and 5 toughness guys in SOI that all of a sudden got relevant.
Green has not a fatty it's true... but it does get a great uncommon removal spell in Clear Shot
Thanks for the comments shinman, updated some cards accordingly. Added everything but red and some random colorless cards, expect those tomorrow. I still need to do some passes to ensure consistency across ratings, but everything should be mostly done. I'll add some archetype information if I get the chance.
Great reading! Just a technical - you have included Lunar Force twice (the second time as "Power of the Moon" - but you basically evaluated it the same both times
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Nit picks:
Blue - I think Fortune's Favor is a little low and Drag Down and Chilling Grasp are a little high. I think in a random midrange deck you don't want multiples of any of these, but in the right deck you might want more. Sorcery speed on DD is a big downer.
I think Displace has combos in other colors (white and black mostly), but it's a niche card for sure.
Mind's Dialation seems like an interesting win con for a control deck, but obviously you have to lock down the board.
for the "General thoughts regarding this format" (thank you for that high-level synopsis, btw!), does "this format" mean 2xEldritch Moon + 1xShadows over Innistrad?
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I've only read the beginning of your review and already you say whitge has no common instant trick... when it has at least borrowed grace. Also, remember this is small set, so one good common like that goes a long way.
I'd put woodcutter's grit at 3.0. Given the darth of instant tricks in all colors and the average size of creatures, getting +3/+3 is huge. The hexproof is icing on the cake to counter their removal. I'd say it's the rabid bite of the set.
Why do you say 2/3s are not well positioned in a format full of 3/2s? I mean they are not great but they are fine.
2/3s were bad in SoI so I assumed they would be bad here. After thinking about it some more, 3/2s seem to be generally better than 2/3s in more recent formats because of what I perceive to be the following reasons:
1. 2/3s are inherently weaker to small pump effects than 3/2s are, and combat tricks have gotten way better in recent formats due to instant speed removal getting way worse. Rush of Adrenaline, Strength of Arms, [card]Confront the Unknown/card] were all considered solid cards by the end of the format, and they were good because creatures are now small enough that +1 toughness a lot of the time makes the difference between your guy dying and surviving in combat, and winning combat off of 1 mana to trade for 2 or 3 of theirs was often enough to put you ahead enough on board to win the game shortly after. Support on bears in Oath is also a good example of 2/3s faring far worse than 3/2s. This makes it seem that nowadays, it's better to have a creature that is more likely to trade with something but generally can't survive post combat (a 3/2) than it is to have something that profitably blocks some cards but gets blown out by +1 power/toughness. 3/2s are just generally less likely to be blown out by something than a 2/3 is.
2. 3 power is a lot more than 2 power when unanswered, and recent formats favor aggression more than control. This is a concept I didn't think much about until after playing Hearthstone for a bit. I play a very control oriented class in that game (priest), and have concluded after a while that a 3 power guy on turn 2 generally needed to be removed immediately, whereas a 2 power guy generally could be left up and killed with an AoE spell down the road. The reasoning for that was simply because a 3 power guy kills you in 10 turns whereas a 2 power guy kills you in 15, and that seemingly small difference ends up mattering quite a bit, as being down to 11 life as opposed to 14 life if the card is unanswered over three turns does end up mattering some of the time.
3. 2/3s are near guaranteed to be obsoleted by your opponents 4 drop, whereas a 3/2 isn't. Almost every single 4 drop common in the set is a 3/3. Looking at all of them, we have Fiend Binder, Spectral Reserves, Laboratory Brute, Enlightened Maniac, Gavony Unhallowed, Weirded Vampire, Stensia Innkeeper, Backwoods Survivalists, Swift Spinner. A 3/2 is obviously better versus the 3/3s, so lets take a look at the cases where a 2/3 would theoretically be better: Spectral Reserves - They can't trade the tokens into a 2/3 compared to a 3/2 so on paper this is better. However, going to the last point, your 2 damage a turn is unlikely to actually pressure your opponent into wanting to trade in the first place. Most of the time they'll just gladly offer the race since they gain two life and their fliers are much harder to block than your 2/3 down the road. Gavony Unhallowed - 2/3 can bounce with a 2/4 whereas a 3/2 gets eaten alive. However, since the 2/3 can't actually attack past the 2/4, them playing the card stalls the board, which favors them due to the ability on the zombie. In this case, I would still rather have a 3/2, since the board is stalled either way, and the 3/2 at least allows me to represent more tricks and force through more damage should I have an answer to the zombie. Swift Spinner - I would rather trade a 3/2 into the spinner than have it bounce with a 2/3.
The zombie is the only case where a 2/3 might be better than a 3/2. Against everything else, I would much rather have the 3/2 so the 2/3 seems pretty bad comparatively speaking.
Interestingly enough, the tricks in this format seem a lot sparser than SoI, so there aren't that many tricks that help a bear efficiently eat a 2/3 which might make the 2/3s better. Unfortunately, I still don't think it looks good for the 2/3s, especially given how the common pillars of the format will probably be Brazen Wolves and Ingenious Skaab, and it's pretty easy to see how much worse a 2/3 is compared to a 3/2 when dealing with these creatures.
for the "General thoughts regarding this format" (thank you for that high-level synopsis, btw!), does "this format" mean 2xEldritch Moon + 1xShadows over Innistrad?
Yes, and this probably also applies somewhat to sealed as well.
I've only read the beginning of your review and already you say whitge has no common instant trick... when it has at least borrowed grace. Also, remember this is small set, so one good common like that goes a long way.
The key word here is "good", and I'm not sold on Borrowed Grace being good. While the modes are flexible and can help out with the alpha strike in the late game, 3 mana for +0/+2 or +2/+0 seems pretty bad. Maybe the threat of activation prevents your opponent from making profitable blocks, but this seems easily played around.
I'd put woodcutter's grit at 3.0. Given the darth of instant tricks in all colors and the average size of creatures, getting +3/+3 is huge. The hexproof is icing on the cake to counter their removal. I'd say it's the rabid bite of the set.
+3/+3 is huge, but 3 mana is huge as well. Good combat tricks have generally overcome their inherent weaknesses of being prone to instant speed removal blowouts by being more mana efficient so that you can play more dudes in the same turn. Turn 4: Rush of Adrenaline your guy, kill their 3 drop for 1 mana, play a 3 drop of your own. 3 mana on the other hand, takes up your entire turn so you can't do anything else, which eliminates the main upside to playing tricks and changes this to a relatively clunky removal spell that doesn't force through damage. If the format is just going to be 3/2 the format, then relying on the combat trick to contest the board seems way less flexible than just say just dropping down another 3/2. Hexproof isn't that big of a deal either, since you generally can't afford to hold up 3 mana for something that they might not even cast, and you also can't protect the threats you need to protect on the turn you cast them. Green's lack of any other good combat modifiers at common mean that you will definitely play these in your deck, but they're nowhere near as good as Rabid Bite, nor should they be taken remotely as high.
Added common cards section so you get a sense of what each color is trying to do.
Updated some ratings: Skirsdag Supplicant - 1.5 >> 2.5. 2/3s are not great as I've said, but the ability is incredibly relevant at closing out games where you are ahead. Thinking about how the card plays out, I'm guessing that this can just very often push through the final points of damage needed to win you the game. Wouldn't be surprised if this was a 3.0.
Wolfkin Bond - 2.5 >> 3.0. This adds a ton of pressure to your board given how small creatures are in this format. I believe in the Wolfy valor. Bloodbriar - 1.5 >> 2.5. Clues are permanents that you can sac as well. Drag Under - 3.5 >> 3.0. Tipped off by zenbitz, this card is good but I wouldn't take it over Choking Restraints
You're missing a few red cards: Deranged Whelp, Distemper of the Blood, Furyblade Vampire. Not sure if anything else is missing.
Thanks, added that and the true colorless cards (Emrakul + the 3/3 guy).
Some more updates regarding a potentially degenerate combo that was right in front of us the entire time. I'll make a separate thread for it as it might end up breaking the format: Bloodbriar >> Now a 3.0 in GW. Lunarch Mantle 1.5 >> 2.0, and a 2.5 in GW.
Cards from SOI that IMO shift in strength (note: none of this should be construed as 'this card is now good or bad' but more 'this card is better or worse in this environment than in the previous one):
Drownyard Explorers get better, probably, given that it can block 3/2s. (Note that I believe it was already a better Blue common.)
Explosive Apparatus both gets better given that it looks like it kills more, and because Delirium seems a much better archetype.
Howlpack Wolf looks like it gets worse, if 3/2 for 3 is now the standard in the environment.
Hey thanks for the long and thoughtful response about 3/2 vs 2/3. I think the key point is a 3/2 trading up some of the time, while being more vulnerable to burn spells and -2/-2 effects.
Ht
I thought drownyard explorers would be great in SoI since my picks for format defining commons were byway courier and dauntless cathar. That card ended up being not as good simply because tricks were so efficient that you got blown out most of the time you blocked with it, and 4 mana was a tad too expensive to invest in a card with that type of risk (graf mole on the other hand was fine at 3) Hopefully the sheer amount of 3/2s in the format and relative lack of good tricks make the explorers better.
Updated the rubric to CFB's for SoI, and adjusted some ratings based off of it. Using 4.0 = Lightning Axe, 3.5 = Fiery Temper, 3.0 = Byway Courier, 2.5 = Thraben Inspector, 2.0 = Devilthorn Fox helps out quite a bit.
Subjugator Angel - 4.0 >> 3.5 I would never take this over Lightning Axe, but would consider taking it over Fiery Temper. Also adjusted some ratings that were thinking too much in best case scenario as opposed to the average case.
Graf Rats - 2.5 >> 2.0. Base rating is too high given 1 toughness.
Ruthless Disposal - 4.0 >> 3.0. Probably acts more like a Reduce to Ash in this format given how the creatures are generally interchangeable in this set. Upside is there with tokens in particular, but in the average case it's probably only slightly better than a 5 mana single target removal spell.
Courageous Outrider - 3.5 >> 3.0. Wouldn't take it over temper.
Take Inventory - 2.5 >> 2.0. 2.5s generally need to be playable in most decks, and while the upside for this card is there, sometimes you just can't play it if you only end up with 1 or 2 copies.
Wretched Gryff - 2.5 >> 2.0. Fills the finisher spot, but you aren't always happy to have it.
Dusk Feaster - 3.0 >> 2.5. It being bad in non delerium decks makes this closer to a 2.5 than 3.0 in pick order.
Graf Harvest - 3.0 >> 2.5. Same as above, - delerium + zombies.
Haunted Dead - 3.5 >> 3.0.
Assembled Alphas - 3.5 >> 3.0.
Blood Mist - 3.5 >> 3.0.
Impetous Devils - 2.5 >> 2.0.
Insatiable Gorgers - 2.5 >> 2.0. Being forced to attack if able seems not good in a format full of 3/2s that will trade up with this, even if it has madness. Luckily red tends to be aggressive, but it's still a bit too inconsistent for a 2.5.
Ulvenwald Captive - 3.0 >> 2.5. Doesn't fit in aggro decks, so gets a ding.
I did think of one reason why you might want to mix 3/2s and 2/3s at the 3-drop spot - if you want to double block a 4/4 or 4/5, which are otherwise hard to deal with. I guess you could use a 1/3 as well, but I think in any midrange deck I would rather eschew a 1/3.
I did think of one reason why you might want to mix 3/2s and 2/3s at the 3-drop spot - if you want to double block a 4/4 or 4/5, which are otherwise hard to deal with. I guess you could use a 1/3 as well, but I think in any midrange deck I would rather eschew a 1/3.
Fair point. I would say that this is relatively minor, since you generally do not want to be in the position where you need to double block anyways due to tricks being a thing. Having a higher toughness body is nice in those cases though: I imagine that the 4 mana 2/4 ends up doing more work on that front.
Everyone is making so much hype that this is format of 3/2s. Is it? What's the number or actual 3/2 creatures and eldrazi tokens generators? (first of all, in common rarity slot, and with the knowledge that EMN is still having 66% of sealed pool in the format but not 100%). Sorry if i missed your analysis about it, there is a lot of text in this thread.
Anyway, great work, thank you a lot for your time making this. I like your logic and most of the ratings. Actually, some of them make more sense than Reid Duke's ratings on CF.
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I'm glad you liked the analysis! It's not necessarily the fact that there are a huge amount of 3/2s, but rather that the 3 mana 3/2 is well positioned in this format due to there not being any horned turtles, and only 1 common 4 drop that profitably blocks a 3/2. This means that board stalls will happen more infrequently as everything in the early game just trades and that 3/2 will be relevant for a larger portion of the game than it normally would be in other formats.
One other indicator to me is that Brazen Wolves and Ingenious Skaab are probably the two most powerful common 3 drop creatures in the format. 2/3 performs very poorly against them, whereas a 3/2 trades evenly into them.
All common creatures with cmc 2+ by reference: think about a 2/3 fares in combat compared to a 3/2 against most of these creatures. The main place where a 2/3 is better is when it's blocking a 2/2, but that doesn't seem as important as a 3/2 being to trade into a 4 drop due to the inherit advantage in attacking compared to blocking due to crappy removal and decent tricks.
Now that I have a slightly better understanding of the format / ratings, I’m rerating cards based on a couple of observations that I noticed with my initial scale. First, I way overvalue good removal spells. Efficient removal spells are good, but in order to achieve a 3.5 rating they need to either blow your opponent out with tempo (Fiery Temper, Rabid Bite and/or be unconditional (Choking Restraints). Also for creatures/spells, I tended to overvalue many of them based on cute synergies that aren’t there most of the time. In general, my thought process for the cards looks something more like this:
4.5 - A ridiculous bomb that will singlehandedly carry you the game if left unanswered, but can generally be dealt with by the premium removal spells in the format.
4.0 - Cards that give you a major advantage when left unanswered or used, but will not singlehandedly win you the game.
3.0 - A strong card that generally puts you ahead in some form (incremental advantage with Byway Courier, pure aggression from Brazen Wolves if you end up playing it on curve, etc. Will generally put you ahead if your opponent answers with a low quality filler card. If you cut this card from your deck, then your deck is ridiculous.
2.5 - One of the better plays for its mana cost that will almost always keep you at parity or be slightly ahead of your opponent if played on curve. Should be playable in almost every deck in the color, or has a strong synergy that pushes you towards an archetype. You are extremely happy if all of your cards are of this tier.
2.0 - Generally filler that has some random synergy that works in a particular deck, but is not strong enough to be consistently played across any deck in that color.
1.5 - Pure filler. Generally trades with most other cards played at this cost, but doesn’t really do enough to give you an actual advantage unless your opponent completely skips their turn.
Blessed Alliance - 3.0 >> 2.5. You need to be in a defensive or flying based deck for this to be good, and there are a non trivial amount of incidental tokens in the format.
Drogskol Shieldmate - 3.0 >> 2.5. Not consistent or efficient enough to be as good as Byway Courier.
Extricator of Sin - 3.0 (2.0, 3.5 in delerium) >> 2.5 (1.0, 3.0 in delerium). The effect is powerful, but not having a random thing to sac makes the card a lot worse, as a 0/3 just doesn't do anything. The payoff is strong, but the risk of it being a 6 mana Enlightened Maniac is very high.
Faith Unbroken - 3.5 >> 2.0. Turns out that the 2 for 1 risk is still enough that you can't randomly jam this into any deck. It's great in the decks that don't mind getting 2 for 1ed if removing their blocker for the turn is worth it (aggro decks), but it's nowhere near as good as just rpemium removal.
Faithbearer Paladin - 2.5 >> 2.0. Most decks can't afford to run more than 1-2 5-6 drops that do not significantly push you towards winning the game. While this one can do some work in a racing situation, it's not big enough to single handedly win the board late in the game, which is a big downside in a format full of random huge cards that do that.
Fiend Binder - 2.5 >> 1.5. The aggro ground based decks want it, but the stats are so weak on turn 4 that you really need to be able to put enough pressure on your opponent that they trade the early turns so that this guy doesn't just get eaten by a 2/2.
Give No Ground - 2.0 >> 1.0. Defensive combat tricks that cost 4 mana are bad, and I should feel bad for suggesting otherwise.
Ironclad Slayer - 2.5 >> 2.0. The random minor upside doesn't impact enough games for this to be consistently a 2.5. 2.5 in BW since you can get more auras in that archetype.
Sanctifier of Souls - 3.5 >> 3.0. Getting creatures in your yard isn't always free, and the base stats are low enough that when this card is bad, it is pretty bad.
Steadfast Cathar - 2.5 >> 2.0. You wouldn't be happy with this in a defensive or flier based deck where it's just slightly better than mediocre filler.
Thraben Standard Bearer - 1.5 >> 1.0. 1.5 cards are cards that you don't mind playing if you really need to fill the curve in most decks I would never play this to fill the curve in most decks.
Drownyard Behemoth - 4.0 >> 3.5. It's big, dumb, and can lead to blowouts, but it suffers in the same way that most other big creatures suffer from in that it is bad against fliers and chump blockers.
Enlightened Maniac - 2.5 >> 2.0 (1.5, 3.0 in Emerge decks). The card is pure filler in decks that don't have emerge guys, but a key enabler in decks that do.
Fortune's Favor - 2.5 >> 2.0. Dip in the ratings because this card isn’t great for non-delerium decks.
Grizzled Angler - 2.5 >> 3.0. The upside is gigantic, and there are artifact creatures in the format to help out with the flips. Emerge cards also seem pretty good, which helps out with the rating.
Identity Thief - 2.0 >> 1.5. The cute synergies are there, but this is very close to an even worse Fiend Binder
Laboratory Brute - 2.5 >> 1.5. Hill giants are actually pretty bad in this format given how 3 drops just trade with them, and the synergies that this guy provides isn’t relevant in UW or UG emerge.
Niblis of Frost - 4.0 >> 4.5. It’s really hard to win if your opponent untaps with this and has spells to play.
Spontaneous Mutation - 3.0 >> 2.5. Too inconsistent to be taking around cards like byway courier, but the power level is there if you have mill or delerium effects.
Tattered Haunter - 2.5 - Being terrible on defense and weak to ping effects means that the card doesn’t fit well in defensive decks, which drops the rating a little bit given how UG and UB tend to not really want this type of card. However, 2 power fliers for 2 have always been decent, and the damage you get out of this little guy most of the time should make up for that.
Take Inventory - 2.0 >> 1.5. Too hard to get enough copies for this to be good. I wouldn’t speculate with this at the 2.0 level, but would gladly take it over random filler.
Collective Brutality - 3.5 >> 3.0. Not being able to kill 3 toughness guys is a pretty big liability in the format. The random upside off of trading a land for one of the spells in their hand is good, but it’s not premium removal good.
Grat Rats - 2.0 >> 1.5 (+ 1.0 per copy of midnight scavengers in the deck). Scavengers makes this card really good, but the base rate is pure mediocre filler.
Liliana’s Elite - 3.5 >> 3.0 (2.5 + 0.25 per instance of self mill you have). The card is good, but takes some work to get going, whereas a 3.5 card should just consistently be good.
Skirsdag Supplicant - 2.5 >> 2.0. The base body is too weak for this to be a higher rating.
Blood Mist - 3.0 >> 2.5. The power level is there, but the doesn’t fit in all decks makes it deserve a lower rating.
Deranged Whelp - 3.0 >> 2.5. 1 toughness is a liability that makes it not worth it in non aggressive decks (of which there are some).
Galvanic Bombardment - 3.5 >> 3.0. It’s good, but not pacifism good. Difference between 2 and 3 is significant in the format as well despite this card’s efficiency.
Make Mischief - 2.5 >> 1.5. Eyeblight Assassin can attack while this can’t, making it not as versatile.
Nahiri’s Wrath - 5.0 >> 4.5. Takes too much work to be a true 5.0, but the blowout potential is still incredibly high.
Swift Spinner - 2.0 >> 1.5. The stats are just so weak on it that it’s pure filler most of the time.
Wolfkin Bond - 3.0 >> 2.5. Emerge decks do not really want this card as they want to emerge guys out of their random ground dudes.
Woodland Patrol - 2.5 >> 2.0. Vigilance is nice, but not nice enough to make this that much better than filler.
Eternal Scourge - 3.0 >> 2.5. 3 mana 3/3s are efficient, but not powerful enough that you are thrilled to take this card and play it in all decks.
Mournwillow - 3.0 >> 2.5. You don’t really want this in defensive delerium decks.
General thoughts regarding the format:
Archetype Thoughts roughly in terms of strength - Note that I'm not considering how SoI plays with these cards as that is a lot of work, so consider this analysis to be purely how it looks in EDM, and adjust weights based on how good the archetypes were in SoI.
5.0: The best of the best. (Archangel Avacyn. Sorin, Grim Nemesis.)
4.5: Incredible bomb, but not unbeatable. (The Gitrog Monster. Descend Upon the Sinful. Jace, Unraveller of Secrets)
4.0: Good rare or top-tier uncommon. (Duskwatch Recruiter. Lightning Axe. Tireless Tracker)
3.5: Top-tier common or solid uncommon. (Breakneck Rider. Fiery Temper. Rabid Bite.)
3.0: Good playable that basically always makes the cut. (Graf Mole. Dauntless Cathar. Niblis of Dusk.)
2.5: Solid playable that rarely gets cut. (Stormrider Spirit. Reduce to Ashes. Thraben Inspector.)
2.0: Good filler, but sometimes gets cut. (Expose Evil. Inspiring Captain. Thornhide Wolves)
1.5: Filler. Gets cut about half the time. (Fork in the Road. Convicted Killer. Militant Inquisitor.)
1.0: Bad filler. Gets cut most of the time. (Moldgraf Scavenger. Vampire Noble. Seagraf Skaab.)
0.5: Very low-end playables and sideboard material. (Invasive Surgery. Ethereal Guidance. Open the Armory.)
0.0: Completely unplayable. (Harness the Storm. Vessel of Volatility.)
White
Blessed Alliance - 2.5 Celestial Flare that only hits attacking creatures, with random upsides. I'm not sold on this card being great simply given how white seems rather aggressive in this format, but 2 mana is still pretty efficient for this effect, and untapping your guys or gaining life adds some blowout potential in a racing situation. Remember that you can do the trick where you kill some guys during combat, and cast this post damage on their remaining attacker. This unfortunately is a nonbo with the untap mode since you need to untap predamage, but maybe is a "combo" with the lifegain mode? Bad in aggro ground based decks, and reasonable in flier decks.
Borrowed Grace - 1.5. Fortify has traditionally been a very borderline card, so does a Fortify with an additional 5 mana +2/+2 mode make the cut? My guess is no given how this format seems to be heavy on the trading, and how white doesn't seem to have many good ways to make tokens.
Bruna, the Fading Light - 4.5. 7 mana is a lot to ask, but the body is huge, and getting back anything makes this card a great stabilizing play. There are a good amount of humans at common, so you should generally be able to get something back. Vigilance is huge as well, since this lets you chip away at their health while maintaining a defensive position.
Choking Restraints - 3.5. I don't think the effect will really come up too often, but a 3 mana pacifism is still a 3 mana pacifism. Gets worse in a format with Emerge, but I don't think it's enough to make it that much worse. The effect will be used mostly to combo with Ironclad Slayer or enable delerium, which is fine in the late game but not something you necessarily need to do on turn 5.
Collective Effort - 3.5. An inconsistent but potentially more powerful Nissa's Judgment. Smite the Monstrous is an effect that has progressively gotten worse throughout the sets as creatures become more and more tiny, but given how most bombs have 4 or more power, it's usually worth the risk of the card sometimes being dead. This card's worst case scenario is pumping your entire team by +1/+1 which is probably fine at 3 or more creatures, but the best case scenario of killing their bomb, pumping your team, and removing that pesky pacifism is insane enough that this should be taken fairly highly. I expect the average case to be kill their guy and pump their team, which was what the judgment did most of the time, and that was considered the best green common/uncommon in Oath.
Courageous Outrider - 3.0. A 4 mana 3/4 is huge in this format, and this even grabs another card a fair amount of the time.
Dawn Gryff - 2.5. Still haven't found a format where I've been unhappy with a wind drake.
Deploy the Gatewatch - 0.0 + 0.75 per planeswalker your deck has. I'm guessing 3+ planeswalkers is what you need for this card to not constantly whiff, and if your deck has that many planeswalkers, running this card just seems greedy.
Desperate Sentry - 2.5 (2.0, 3.0 in delerium). Not entirely sold on this card as the below average case of your opponent being on the defense and just blocking this with a 0 or 1 power guy or letting it ping for 1 is pretty bad. This reminds me a lot of Dragon Egg which is great in a defensive deck but bad in an aggressive one, and the downsides are rather significant as a 3/2 does not trade with many of the cards in the format. Good with emerge.
Drogskol Shieldmate - 3.0 - Randomly ambushes bears and wins you combat while being an okay body by itself.
Extricator of Sin - 3.0 (1.5, 3.5 in delerium). The flip side of this card is great as 3/5 is very large with two good effects, but the unflipped side seems pretty bad if you can't reliably activate delerium. Sacrificing a land is not something you want to do on turn 3, so if you can't get delerium then this becomes a 3 mana 0/3 that upgrades your bear into a 3/2, or a late game 0/3 and 3/2 if you sac a land, which is pretty bad. Definitely a reason to be in delerium, but be prepared to abandon it if you don't get there.
Faith Unbroken - 2.0. The tempo swing you get from this card probably justifies the times your opponent has the perfect answer and blows you out. There aren't too many instant speed ways to answer this, but getting 2 for 1ed still feels bad. Good in aggro decks, bad in control.
Faithbearer Paladin - 2.0. Lifelink is very good on this body as it blocks most lower drops, but 5 mana is somewhat clunky. Lifelink is a great ability to have on these types of bodies though as it just clogs through ground, so this should end up doing work most of the time. Unfortunately, all of the other creatures at this mana just outclass it, and you can't afford to be running too many 5 drops.
Fiend Binder - 1.5 The aggro ground based decks want it, but the stats are so weak on turn 4 that you really need to be able to put enough pressure on your opponent that they trade the early turns so that this guy doesn't just get eaten by a 2/2.
Geist of the Lonely Vigil - 2.0 (1.5, 3.0 in delerium). This seems like a mediocre card in decks that can't get delerium, and a pretty good one in decks that can. While this card does stop bears and trade or block most 3 drops, white seems like it wants to be aggressive in this format, and this card is the opposite of that if it can't ever attack.
Gisela, the Broken Blade - 5.0. Dies to murder, but I don't see how the game is remotely loseable if your opponent can't answer this immediately. Comes down on 4, beats every single creature in the format that isn't a giant emerge creature, and represents an 8 point life swing every time it connects. Basically Baneslayer Angel.
Give No Ground - 1.0.
4 mana is a lot to spend on a combat trick that can get blown out by something. The ridiculous amount of toughness and ability to block multiple creatures does it make possible for your guy to maybe eat two of your opponents guys, but the cost is a bit prohibitive. This also means that you need to use this card on defensive, which leaves you prone to being blown out by a removal spell or trick of their own. There doesn't seem to be that many instant speed ways to answer this though, so maybe this plus the ability to fog your opponents attacks is good enough.Defensive combat tricks that cost 4 mana are bad, and I should feel bad for suggesting otherwise.Guardian of Pilgrims - 2.5. Bear with random minor upside, sign me up!
Ironclad Slayer - 2.0. 3 mana 3/2 with random minor upside, sign me up! Combos with Choking Restraints, but this happens so late in the game that I don't think it is relevant enough to boost this card by that much. Better in BW where you can get Boon of Emrakul back.
Ironwright's Cleansing - 0.5. Strictly sideboard as there aren't enough targets to make this mainboardable.
Lone Rider - 1.5 (1.0 + 0.5 per instance of pump/lifegain triggering you have in the deck). Terrible if you can't flip it, but absolutely bonkers if you can. One interesting thing about the card is that it is very good at bluffing combat tricks. Your opponent doesn't really want to block this since that means that you get to eat their guy for free if you have the trick, so I imagine that this will just get through a fair amount of damage before they decide to do something about it. Unfortunately there doesn't seem to be too many reasonable ways to trigger this, so this seems like an unreliable speculative pick with a very mediocre fail case of being a 1/1 first strike.
Long Road Home - 1.5. Essence Flux was a pretty niche card, and this one feels roughly the same. Some upside of getting the +1/+1 counter guaranteed and being able to exile your opponents creatures, but not high enough that I would want to maindeck the card. Seems more of a sideboard card against removal auras and such.
Lunarch Mantle - 1.5 (1.0, 2.0 in GW with Bloodbriar. I'm quite fond of +2/+2 and flying auras for 2, and this card isn't that far off from that. Not sure how many Ironclad Slayer and Lone Rider you need to make this worth the risk, but as is it's probably too risky to be considered good. One very important I didn't notice with this card at first glance is with Bloodbriar. Play this card on bloodbriar, sac all your lands, and laugh as you attack with an 8/9 monster for lethal on turn 6. This combo might actually be good enough to propel both cards up even higher in rating, as the threat of getting in for 8 flying damage out of nowhere if you have a bloodbriar on the table is pretty insane. Sure you sac all your lands, but that doesn't really matter if it kills them while they're tapped out.
Peace of Mind - 1.0. White has 0 madness cards, and the madness cards in this set just are not very good. This is so much worse than Call the Bloodline because it just doesn't generate any board presence, and spending a card for 9-12 life over the course of a game will not normally make the cut. Maybe you have enough madness cards to be worth it, but it seems unlikely.
Providence - 0.5. Maybe if you were in a racing situation and needed to gain 20 life then this card would be somewhat useful? I'm not going to rule it out as completely unplayable, but it's close.
Repel the Abominable - 1.0. Cards that make your guys indestructible but give no power or toughness are generally bad as they don't help you win the board back if you are behind. This card is very similar with the added drawback of needing you guys to be humans and theirs to not be, which seems like too many hoops to jump to make this viable.
Sanctifier of Souls - 3.0. Even though the effect seems a little expensive and the base body is a little weak, being able to threaten the pump is a big deal, and converting all your dead cards into spirits is a ton of value that can take over the late game. However, getting creatures in your yard isn't always free, and the base stats are low enough that when this card is bad, it is pretty bad.
Selfless Soul - 3.0. Very relevant ability on an efficient 2 drop flier seems good to me. The ability isn't as good as it looks since it's onboard, so don't expect this to blow your opponent out as they can easily play around it. Generally I expect it to read: “sacrifice selfless soul to give one of your guys protection from a color”, which is still pretty good on a 2 mana 2/1.
Sigarda's Aid - 0.5. I was surprised to see that there actually are a decent amount of P/T equipment in the set that have large equip costs. That still doesn't make this card anywhere near good/consistent enough to be played, but I'm sure I'll face that one guy who built around this card and drew the nuts to blow me out at some point.
Sigardian Priest - 3.0. 1 mana tappers tend to be very close to premium removal spells, and this one doesn't even get pinged to death to boot. White is light on mana sinks so you should generally have mana to activate this card. Only tapping humans is annoying against white and random humans in the set, but at least werewolves aren't humans anymore pre-flip.
Spectral Reserves - 2.0. 2/2 in fliers for 4 mana seems borderline, and I don't know if there are payoffs for tokens for this to ever be great.
Steadfast Cathar - 2.0. 2/3 on offense is strong, but a 2/1 on defense is mediocre filler.
Subjugator Angel - 3.5. Enables alpha strikes on a clogged board, while being a relevant body if that doesn't finish the opponent off. Given how white should be fairly aggressive in this set, this card should do a ton of work.
Thalia, Heretic Cathar - 4.0. Ignoring the mostly irrelevant nonbasic land clause, 3 mana 3/2 first strike is a great rate in of itself, and creatures entering the battlefield tapped greatly slows down your opponent. Creatures are generally small this format so 3/2 first strike should beat basically anything in combat, meaning that this card will singlehandedly put a ton of pressure on your opponent.
Thalia's Lancers - 3.0 (3.0, 4.0) with a legendary card in the deck. There aren't that many legendarys that aren't first picked so this should be thought of as a 5 mana 4/4 first strike most of the time, which is very big in this format. If your deck does have a legendary though, then this card becomes pure value, especially considering how the legendary card itself is probably a bomb by itself.
Thraben Standard Bearer - 1.0. I suppose a late game land sink isn't the worst, but I don't see that many ways to take advantage of these tokens.
Blue
Advanced Stitchwing - 3.5. 5 mana for a 3/4 flier is above the curve, and this one has a very relevant ability in the lategame. Add in how 3/4 is big in this format, and you have a very good finisher on your hands.
Chilling Grasp - 2.5. Frost breath with minor upside, not too much to say here. Madness doesn't seem to really be a thing this time around, but the format seems tempo based so this should do a fair amount of work. The lack of good spells in the format (especially at instant speed) should make this worth more than it normally is. Madness is largely irrelevant given the lack of enablers in blue, but might do something in UB.
Coax From the Blind Eternities - 0.0. Why would you have an Eldrazi in the sideboard and play this card when you can just maindeck the Eldrazi? Stone unplayable.
Contingency Plan - 0.5. Tasigur's Scheming was not playable in a format with delve, and this format has way less graveyard synergies. Maybe if enabling delerium was the difference between winning and losing the game for your deck, but even then…
Convolute - 2.0. I'm usually okay with playing a singleton 3 mana counter in most formats, and given the lack of options that blue has here, this should be no exception.
Curious Homunculus - 2.5 (1.0, 3.5 in UR or UB spells). I wouldn't play this unless my deck had 9+ spells, but the card is great in those particular decks.
Displace - 0.5. I don't really see any combos outside of Enlightened Maniac, so this should be strictly sideboard for pacifisms and the like.
Docent of Perfection - 4.5. The base body is huge, with very large upside. I imagine that most of the time you only get a couple of guys out of this in an average deck, but that's a lot of value for 5 mana. Living the dream of casting 3 spells after playing it obviously wins you the game, but getting to that point seems tough given how you need to play it on turn 5.
Drag Under - 3.0 >> 2.5. Sorcery speed does hurt this a bit as it reduces the blowout potential during combat, but cantripping eliminates the unsummon weakness of being card disadvantage. Great if you can cast this on an emerged guy, and I imagine this will swing tempo by 2-3 mana in your favor. Blue also tends to want to have many spells that replace themselves, so this should be a key card for the color that you will gladly play at least 1 of in your deck. This is essentially a Time Ebb that is slightly better when you are behind (since you want to draw more cards into your outs) and slightly worse when you are ahead (time ebb denies your opponent a draw into their outs).
Drownyard Behemoth - 4.0. Cast this on your Enlightened Maniac for 4, eat their biggest guy, attack next turn with a huge 5/7. This requires some amount of setup in that you need a guy on board, but the ridiculous amount of stats on this guy and innate protection should make it incredibly powerful.
Elder Deep-Fiend - 4.5. Cast a 3 drop. Turn 4 during combat after they attack, cast this tapping down all of their lands. Laugh when they can't kill it in response to the cast trigger, as your 5/6 eats their 3 drop, they skip their turn 4, and you come barrelling down with a 5/6 on turn 5. Even if this doesn't eat a guy, time walking them while making your guy huge is probably good enough to outtempo your opponent in the majority of games.
Enlightened Maniac - 2.0 (1.5, 3.0 in Emerge) A very good emerge enabler, as keeping the 3/2 around still adds a good amount of board presence if the emerge guy gets removed. Even if you can't emerge something out of it, a 4 mana 3/2 that gains you 3 life and has random equipment/mass pump synergy should still be a card that you play as filler to slightly above average filler most of the time.
Exultant Cultist - 2.5. This trades with most 2 and 3 drops in the format, but not being able to block the most aggressive common 2 and 3 drops (Steadfast Cathar,Ingenious Skaab, Brazen Wolves) is somewhat concerning.
Fogwalker - 1.5. 1/3s are just bad in general, especially in a format full of 3 power creatures. Skulk and the other effect adds some upside, but I doubt it's enough to make the card actually good as it just doesn't impact the board enough.
Fortune's Favor - 2.0 (2.5 if you care about the graveyard) 4 mana instant speed divinations are generally playable, and this card seems like a better version of that most of the time. Putting stuff in the yard can help with random graveyard/delerium synergies, and you can hold up a counterspell while at it. Bad if you aren't doing anything with the yard though.
Geist of the Archives - 3.0. Scry 1 is very close to looting, and looting is very strong at generating incremental advantage. Attach that to a 0/4 body that just blocks everything in the format, and you should have a very solid card.
Grizzled Angler - 3.0 (1.5 + 0.75 per 2 colorless creatures you have in the deck + 0.5 if you care about delerium.) 3 mana 2/3s are generally mediocre, but the flipside of this card is huge if you can get it online. Wretched Gryff is probably going to be the main enabler for this, but I would run all of the Field Creepers I could get my hands on if I had this card in the deck (mostly because blue just doesn't have any good colorless creatures).
Identity Thief - 1.5. My gut instinct is that this is a Heliod's Emissary that really sucks at blocking most of the time, which is fine in an aggressive deck that wants to get through on the ground, but that doesn't really fit blue's theme in most formats. There is a ton of utility with the card though since you can get EtB triggers on your own guys (Enlightened Maniac), or flicker them out of a Sleep Paralysis, but it being so abysmal on defense and costing 4 makes me question its worth.
Ingenious Skaab - 3.0 - Average base stats with two very relevant abilities should make this card a workhorse in the blue decks. I'm hoping this gives blue the common tools needed to get out of being a joke in SoI.
Laboratory Brute - 1.5 (2.5 in UB zombie shenanigans). Hill giant with minor upsides of being a zombie and milling. The upsides seem like they'll actually be relevant in most decks (Delerium in W/G, GY/Zombie stuff in B, milling the “spells in GY matter cards in R”), so this card will probably see play in most decks. However, hill giants are actually pretty bad in this format given how 3 drops just trade with them, and the synergies that this guy provides isn’t relevant in UW or UG emerge.
Lunar Force - 1.5. My pick for the card that looks completely unplayable, but just turns out to be marginally unplayable. The worst case scenario is that they play an irrelevant 1 mana spell and completely outtempo you. The average case scenario though is that this trades for your opponents worst 2-3 drop in hand, and you come out even on tempo since they can't generally fit another play in. I don't think this will be necessarily good, but it'll at least trade for something, which is more than other spells can attest to.
Mausoleum Wanderer - 2.0 (1.5 + 0.25 per spirit you have). This ends up being a Judge's Familiar most of the time which was fine but borderline. You need to play ~3 spirits to make this do enough damage to be worth it, but I don't see enough spirits at common for this to be considered a high pick.
Mind's Dilation - 0.0. So you cast this do nothing on turn 7, your opponent then proceeds to reveal a land, alphas for lethal because you did nothing last turn, and you just lie down and try not to cry.
Nebelgast Herald - 3.0. 2/1 flier for 3 with random upside of being a spirit and on average preventing 3 damage or forcing through more damage sounds good to me.
Niblis of Frost - 4.5. Guardian of Tazeem was an insane card, and this card does a very good impression of that.
Scour the Laboratory - 3.0 (2.5, 3.5 in delerium). Drawing 3 cards for 4 mana is extremely spicy, and merely good at 6 mana. This format seems tempo based which makes me be wary of playing this card in decks that can't get delerium, but the raw power level is there.
Spontaneous Mutation - 2.5 (2.0 + 0.33 per “enabler” that gets at least one card in the yard that you have) This card looks unassuming, but can be very strong. 1 mana is just so cheap for this type of effect, as it can be used as a combat trick that can't even be blown out since it sticks around post combat, and you do not need that many cards in the yard for it to be blue Swords to Plowshares. As soon as you get 2-3 cards in the yard, this becomes playable, and it's amazing anywhere from 3 onwards. Laboratory Brute makes this a -4/-0 flash for 1, for instance. My pick for the most initially underrated card in the set.
Tattered Haunter - 2.5 - Being terrible on defense and weak to ping effects means that the card doesn’t fit well in defensive decks, which drops the rating a little bit given how UG and UB tend to not really want this type of card. However, 2 power fliers for 2 have always been decent, and the damage you get out of this little guy most of the time should make up for that.
Summary Dismissal - 1.5. Sometimes you just need a 4 mana counterspell. This has upside in this format of stopping emerge triggers, but not really enough to justify its cost.
Take Inventory - 1.5 (1.5 + 0.75 per copy you have in your deck) 2 mana for a cantrip is not great, but it is much better in a set where blue is full of prowess and “instants/sorceries” matters cards. Casting the second copy and beyond is clearly pure value, so this will probably be a very large role player for the blue deck. Cards that it helps enable include Spontaneous Mutation and Ingenious Skaab, which seems like the most powerful cards blue has at common. However, I wouldn’t speculate with this at the 2.0 level, but would gladly take it over random filler.
Turn Aside - 1.5. This reminds of Dispel, which is a great sideboard card and a passable maindeck card if your deck is low on interaction and has high value creatures to protect. The main issue here is that the format just does not have that many great removal spells, so this can be a blank in some games.
Unsubstantiate - 2.5. 2 mana instant speed unsummon with upside should be good enough to make the cut most of the time, especially in a format low on interaction.
Vexing Scuttler - 3.5. 4/5 is large, and it doesn't take that much work to get an instant or sorcery in the yard to take advantage of the upside.
Wharf Infiltrator - 1.5. There seem to be a fair amount of common answers to it, whether it be silly 0/3 walls or ping effects. The upside of it being a looter is pretty high, but it's probably not worth the times where it ends up being a do nothing 1/1.
Wretched Gryff - 2.5. I tend to think of emerge as being an aura cast on the creature, since sacrificing a dude to get a bigger body is roughly equivalent to putting an aura on him. The obvious downside is that you can't attack with the creature somewhat balances out the fact that its impossible for your opponent to 2 for 1 you in response to casting the aura. Thinking about it that way, emerging this on a bear or 3 mana 2/3 reads 4 mana: target creature gets +1/+2 (or +1/+1) and flying, draw a card. This seems reasonable enough as it turns your crappy guy into a more relevant threat for the midgame, and has the upside of just being a 7 mana 3/4 flier cantrip. However, it can be very clunky and inconsistent, and the average good case isn’t that great tempo wise.
Black
Abundant Maw - 1.5. 4 toughness is big enough that this card should attack favorably into most boards, but unlike most emerge cards, the trigger isn't strong enough to recoup your investment in case they do have the answer for it, making it weaker than the other cards.
Boon of Emrakul - 3.0. Does a decent job at killing all but the emerge creatures in the format, and enables delerium to boot.
Borrowed Malevolence - 2.5. 1 mana for either of these effects is efficient albeit unexciting, and for 3 mana you can live the mini-dream of pinging off your opponents X/1, and having your bear survive the trade with their bear. The flexibility of the card should make it viable in most situations, and I can't see myself cutting the first copy of it in most decks. There are a fair amount of targets for this at common as well.
Cemetary Recruitment - 1.0 (1.0, 2.0 in UB zombies). The card is bad filler if you don't get a good zombie back, and reasonable card advantage if you do. The problem is how many zombies are actually worth getting back and can actually impact the board at the point when you play this card?
Certain Death - 2.0. Expensive unconditional removal spells are generally a necessary evil as a 1 of in most limited decks, but the difference between 5 and 6 mana is significant enough for this to not be that great. The minor upside is nice, but given how creatures are all small in this format, you are generally losing tempo in the exchange, and I would only be truly happy mainboarding this unless I just didn't have any other mainboard answers to huge emerge guys.
Collective Brutality - 3.5. -2/-2 for 2 at sorcery speed is still pretty decent, and trading a land for one of their spells is a lot of upside in the mid-late game. This unfortunately doesn't kill the two best common 3 drops in the format though Ingenious Skaab, Brazen Wolves, but the two alternative modes (and madness enabling) are enough upside to bump it up a bit.
Cryptbreaker - 4.0. Turn 1 this, turn 2 make a zombie, turn 3 make a zombie, turn 4
start phyrexian arenaing yourself seems like a solid way to take over a game. Part of me wonders if this is a little bit too slow and prone to getting outtempoed, but the value can get out of control with this card.
Dark Salvation - 4.0. The worst case scenario is Eyeblight Assassin or a strictly better Farbog Boneflinger for 5 that gives something -2/-2, which is already deserving of a 3.5 rating. Add in the existence of reasonable common zombies in Gavony Unhallowed and Thraben Foulbloods, even having one guy onboard suddenly turns this card into -2/-2 for 3 or -3/-3 for 5, which just makes the card ooze with value.
Distended Mindbender - 4.0. Emerging this on turn 4 out of a 3 drop seems like a very good way to win the game. 5/5 on turn 4 will be the biggest thing on the board, and making your opponent discard the removal spell that kills this creature along with their biggest threat that can contest this creature seems very hard to beat. While discarding cards isn't normally that strong, being attached to such a big body that can be cast early in the game should make this card on average very strong. Late game this just ends up being an expensive 5/5 which is bad, but the casting this card on curve scenario should make it good enough to be taken very highly.
Dusk Feaster - 2.5 (2.0, 3.5 in delerium) 5 mana for a 4/5 flier is insane, whereas 7 mana for the same guy is borderline. Black doesn't have many natural ways to enable delerium and will probably have to rely on the secondary color, but the upside is probably good enough to take this early and try to make it work. 4/5 being huge in this format helps mititgate the worst case of having to cast this for 7.
Gavony Unhallowed - 3.0. 2/4 blocks all of the silly 3/2s in the format, and having this onboard makes trading for your opponent a total nightmare. This will easily be the largest thing on the board after even a single trade, and given the lack of efficient combat tricks which have traditionally been the bane of the 2/4, I expect this card to be one of the common creature pillars of the format.
Graf Harvest - 2.5 (2.0, 3.5 in UB). The card is a good late game mana sink, but 4 mana for a 2/2 menace zombie is very slow if you are fighting for the board and not ahead. My hunch is that the card is only truly insane if you can curve out with aggressive zombies, which only seems reliable in UB. Worth noting that there are 0 2 drop 2 power zombies in the format, so I think you need to curve turn 3-4 zombie to make this card actively good, which is only reliable in UB. Bonus points if you can self mill yourself (GB in particular)
Graf Rats - 2.0 (1.5 + 1.0 per copy of midnight scavengers you have in your deck). There are a lot more 3/2s then there are 2/3s for 3 in this format, so the rats by themselves is a fine card. Add in the option to transform into a Chittering Host late game, and you have some real upside.
Haunted Dead - 3.0. 3/3 in stats split over two bodies for 4 is okay, and being a late game land sink gives it enough flexibility to be a solid card overall. This is slightly too inefficient for me to consider it as good as something as a Nearhearth Chaplain, but I can't imagine ever cutting it from my deck.
Liliana, the Last Hope - 4.0. This is incredibly annoying to face turn 3. Creatures seem small enough in this format that her +1 ability will just eat all of your opponent's x/1s, and make their biggest guy unable to attack profitably into your board (if you have any). Her inability to put you back into a losing game or get you extremely ahead makes her a little off from a 4.5, but the general utility makes her better than most cards.
Liliana's Elite - 3.0 (2.5 + 0.25 per instance of self mill you have). The format seems very trade centric, so I expect this to roughly be a turn 3 2/2, turn 4 3/3, etc. Throw in some self mill cards, and this suddenly looks very good. While the body seems inefficient, given how creatures are tiny in this format, having 3 dudes in your yard by say turn 6-7 should make this the biggest guy on board in most cases.
Markov Crusader - 2.0 (1.5 + 0.33 per vampire you have) 3 toughness on a 5 drop is terrible in this format, but the life swing is huge if you can somehow sneak a hasty attack in with this guy. Unfortunately all 3-4 drops will just end up trading with this guy so he won't do much besides trade and gain you 4 life, but the upside is there.
Midnight Scavengers - 3.0 (+0.25 per copy of graf rats you have in your deck) Gravediggers have always been respectable in just amount every limited format. The restriction on this card is a pretty big deal since you can't get back bombs, but the 3/3 body that gets back your 3 drop is probably good enough to never really cut this from your deck. Chittering Host also seems like a huge beating, so extra value if you have rats in your deck.
Murder - 4.0. Simple, clean, efficient. Instant speed is huge, and there are a good amount of huge mana things for this to destroy.
Noosegraf Mob - 3.5. This is both psuedo-removal evasion and a punisher effect in disguise. A common scenario I see happening is you attacking or blocking with this card, and then your opponent using a combat trick to shrink it and eating it for psuedo free. You get a couple of 2/2 zombies out of the deal, but 2/2s matter less once you are at the point in the game where you can cast this. On the other hand, this card leaves a zombie behind when it gets removed, and is pseudo immune to Pacifism type effects. My guess is that this card will rarely be punished as removal and tricks are bad, and a 5/5 is huge, so this should do some work.
Oath of Liliana - 1.5. Edicts are generally too unreliable to be happy playing in the mainboard, especially ones that cost 3.
Olivia's Dragoon - 3.0. Madness is way worse in this set than SoI so I don't think you're going to get too much value out of the card, but a bear with random upsides is still a bear with random upsides.
Prying Questions - 1.0. “But this keeps you even on cards!” Right, but this costs you 3 mana in tempo, and your opponent can generally put a card back on top that does not impact their plays for the upcoming turns. So grats, you just spent 3 mana to deal 3 damage and have zero impact on the board. I suppose this could be better than the 19th or 20th land, but it's pretty questionable.
Rise From the Grave - 2.0 (1.5 + 0.5 per payoff+enabler you have). The dream is to discard an emerge creature with the dragoon and rise it, but black just does not have any naturally big creatures. You can probably make this good with some work, but most of the time this is just going to get back a 3 or 4 drop for 5 mana, which seems pretty mediocre.
Ruthless Disposal - 3.0 (3.5 with tokens). Generally should read: Trade your worst creature and a land for their two best creatures. Yes, this is technically card disadvantage since you 3 for 2 yourself, but you're generally trading your worst guy, a land, and the card for their two best guys. The main issue with the card is that your worst guy and their second best guy might not be that far off in most cases as the creatures in the format are all very similar, leaving this card as roughly as good just a Reduce to Ash. Using a token would probably be the best case scenario for this, but you need to work to make it good.
Skirsdag Supplicant - 2.0. Madness enabling doesn't matter as much given the lack of good madness cards in the format, and 2/3s are not well positioned in this format. This one does have the upside of closing out games if you are ahead at a cheap price though, so I can see this card performing way better than he looks.
Strange Augmentation - 1.0. Yeah, there will be that one guy that gets two of these on a creature when you have no answer, but most of the time this is just very close to stone unplayable.
Stromkirk Condemned - 3.5. These effects are deceptively good because discarding cards does not cost you any tempo, making the trade very unfavorable for them. Tack on how this enables madness and can pump your entire team, and you have a fairly strong card on your hands.
Succumb to Temptation - 2.0 I don't know how meaningful the instant speed is when black does not have any instant speed ways to interact with the opponent, but divination is usually good enough to be welcome in the majority of decks.
Thraben Foulbloods - 2.5. 3 mana 3/2 with random delerium and zombie upside, sign me up!
Tree of Perdition - 2.0. How much does your deck want a 0/13 wall for 4? Defensive decks probably love the card, offensive decks not so much.
Vampire Cutthroat - 1.5. Uncontested this is a 1 mana 2 damage life swing, but you're going to feel bad the moment your opponent plays one of the main ways to punish a 1/1.
Voldaren Pariah - 3.0. Probably a 5 mana 3/3 flier a lot of the time which is a 2.0, but trading your board for theirs and leaving a 6/5 flier on the board seems like enough game-winning upside to make the average case worth it. Random madness synergies as well.
Wailing Ghoul - 1.0. Liliana's Elite is the only black card I see that would make me consider playing this card. Defensive delerium decks don't seem like a thing this format given how there just aren't any payoffs for the archetype, and the 1/3 body just gets run over by all of the 3 power guys available.
Weirding Vampire - 2.0. Hill giants don't seem great in a format full of 3/2s, but minor upsides bump this up half a point to the realm of playability.
Whispers of Emrakul - 1.5. Discarding at random is a lot better early on since your opponent can get mana screwed, but a single card generally isn't enough to get it done. I'm not sure how relevant this effect will be by the time you get delerium, so I tend towards a lower rating here.
Red
Abandon Reason - 3.0. This rating should drop down to a 2.5 as people are more familiar with the format and play around it, but I’m sure you’ll get many 2 for 1 blowouts at the prerelease by playing this card. Remember that toughnesses are low and instant speed interaction is low, so +1/+0 and first strike will just win you combat most of the time.
Alchemist’s Greeting - 2.5 (2.5 +1.0 in RB madness) Slightly worse Reduce to Ash when you can’t madness it, but very efficient if you can. The main issue here is that there aren’t many good madness enablers outside of black, so I expect this to be a reduce to ash in most cases, which falls more under the “one of necessary evil expensive removal spell” that decks tend to play.
Assembled Alphas - 3.0 Expensive, but it’s basically impossible to profitably enter combat with this card, as it is impossible to double block with smaller creatures and will trade with anything that has 8 or less toughness. It working both on offense and defense is a pretty nice bonus, which should make this card a reasonable curve topper. 6 drops are a bit expensive though given the existence of pacifism in the format.
Bedlam Reveler - 3.5 (roughly 2.0 + 0.2 per instant/sorcery you have in the deck) The first question is at what point mana cost does this card become reasonable, and my guess is somewhere in the 5 range, which means that you need 2-3 instants in your yard. In order to get 2-3 instants in your yard over the course of a normal game, you probably need to be playing 7ish, which seems doable for most decks in the format. Seems to be enough upside that I would consider going out of my way to make the card good, and the fail case of it being a 6 mana 3/4 prowess that loots away or refills your hand still seems pretty solid.
Blood Mist - 2.5. Completely dead if you are behind, and amazing when you are ahead. Red will probably be more ahead than behind given the aggressive slant on their creatures so you’ll probably be more ahead than you are behind in red. The nice thing about this card compared to something like Nahiri’s Machinations and Stensia Masquerade is that double strike does effectively add power to your board, so this enchantment can quickly spiral out of control if your opponent’s board can’t deal with the first strike.
Bold Impaler - 1.0. Just say no to cards like Bellows Lizard, especially ones as inefficient as this.
Borrowed Hostility - 2.0. My main concern with the card is that it can’t force your bear through their 2/3 for 1 mana. In most cases, I imagine that you just give your guy first strike and eat their 3/2 with your 3/2 for 1 mana, but costing 4 mana to trade up is too inefficient for me to actively look for the card.
Brazen Wolves - 3.0. One of the common pillars of the format. The body blocks your opponents bears, and a 3 mana 4/3 on offense is just incredibly aggressive, and if your opponent doesn’t trade with a 3/2 immediately, the damage you get out of this card will quickly win you the game. This also makes 2/xs for 3 significantly worse as they can’t deal with it.
Collective Defiance - 4.0. Efficient removal spell that randomly burns your opponent and refills your hand.
Conduit of Storms - 3.0. The ability to transform this into a 5/4 for 5 mana should make the card impossible to cut for most decks, despite 2/3s being relatively weak.
Deranged Whelp - 2.5. Menace is incredibly annoying to deal with on a 2 drop, so I expect this to get in for a fair amount of damage. Would probably be a 3.5, but there seem to be a fair amount of common ways to punish an x/1 in this format.
Distemper of the Blood - 1.0 (1.5 in RB). It's almost like a strictly worse version of Senseless Rage for the madness decks. Trample is relevant, but I would much rather have the persistent effect than the trample damage on this type of card. With enough Olivia's Dragoon, any madness card is playable, but the worst case scenario for this card is so bad that I'm hesistant to even play it in the madness deck.
Falkenrath Reaver - 2.5. Bear with relevant creature type, what else is there to say.
Furyblade Vampire - 2.0 (1.5, 3.0 in RB). The amount of damage you can force through with this card is borderline disgusting in a christmasland scenario, but forcing the discard at the beginning of combat makes this card really awkward. Say you cast this turn 2, they play a bear, you cast a Weirding Vampire. At this point, you have to give up your madness enabler if you attack into their bear, since they're obviously going to block given how you just tapped out. Meanwhile, Olivia's Dragoon gets in for 2 flying damage in the air and lives to tell the tale another day. The sheer amount of power on the card might make it still good enough to be good since 4/2 trample for 2 is pretty good in the late game where you can just pitch excess lands, but the amount of times it's awkward makes me question whether or not it's actually a good enabler. The 1/2 body is also pretty useless compared to even a 1/3 Ravenous Bloodseeker that can at least block a bear. Madness is pretty important for RB though, so this will probably still be a high pick in those colors, and a risky pick otherwise.
Galvanic Bombardment - 3.0 (3.0 +0.33 per copy you have in the deck). Shock looks to be great in the format of 3/2s, and the tempo gain off of playing even the second copy is probably high enough to carry the game for you if your deck is remotely aggressive.
Hanweir Garrison - 4.0. Forgetting the meld effect which generally won’t go off, I can’t see you losing a game where you get to attack with this twice. The fact that the tokens EtB tapped and attacking just adds so much pressure, so all you really need to do is fill your deck with combat tricks and it should be very hard to lose. That being said, I can see many games where this just gets walled by a 3/3 or trades with a 3/2, so it’s not in the unbeatable category just yet.
Harmless Offering - 0.0. No.
Impetous Devils - 2.0. I imagine this being close to a 4 mana Asphyxiate that 3s them, and that card was pretty good in BnG. The Devils are weak to some key 1 mana instants in the format that can ping it off though, so it gets a ding for inconsistency.
Incendiary Flow - 3.5. Efficient removal that kills most pre-turn 5 creatures in the format.
Insatiable Gorgers - 1.5 (2.5 in RB madness). Not liking the 3 toughness if able clause in a format of 3/2s, even if the body just does a ton of damage if it connects. I don’t see myself cutting this from madness, but it’s borderline otherwise.
Make Mischief - 1.5, Should just be Eyeblight Assassin, and this format has a ton of x/1s. However, eyeblighting dudes isn’t something that aggressive decks really want to do, so I would generally only play the first one in most decks.
Mirrorwing Dragon - 4.5. After rereading the card a few times, his effect boils down to being Zada, Hedron Grinder with Hexproof. If your opponent removes this, then he ends up wiping his entire board which is clearly not a good way to win a game, and you playing something like Uncaged Fury on this just wins you the game. However, keep in mind that if your opponent casts a pump spell on the dragon, then their team gets the pump so this card can backfire on you, but in most cases, it’s pretty insane.
Nahiri’s Wrath - 4.5. Based on my logic for Ruthless Disposal, this should also be a bomb that just wrecks your opponent. This card has the drawback compared to the disposal of requiring you to have enough CMC in your hand to cover the toughness that you need to kill, and the quality of the cards that you discard will probably be higher than the quality of cards you discard/sacrifice to the disposal. This is also useless in a topdeck war while the disposal is still online assuming you have a single dude on board and sandbag a land. That being said, this does just still wipe their entire board if you have the cards for it, and this is better than the disposal at dealing with smaller creatures if you just discard a 3CMC thing and 2-3 lands to wipe their 4 3 toughness guys. This also costs you far less tempo than the disposal as it only costs 3 and you do not have to invest the mana you spent to play the guy in the first place. Despite the inherent card disadvantage, this should just be a one sided wrath most of the time that single handedly gets you back in the game if you are behind, or wins you the game if you are ahead.
Otherworldly Outburst - 2.0. The effect is very weird, but you can think of this as a slightly weaker Unnatural Endurance most of the time. The 3/2 body is probably going to be similar to the guy you’re playing this on, so most of the time it’s as if your guy just regenerated. That card was very playable, and I expect this one to only be slightly worse.
Prophetic Ravings - 1.0. The risk of getting 2 for 1ed is almost never worth the upside of you turning something into a looter, barring you are all in on madness or something.
Savage Alliance - 4.0. After reading the card a couple of times, I’ve settled on this card being 4 mana instant: Deal 3 damage to target creature and 1 damage to all other creatures your opponent controls, which seems pretty close to Cone of Flame to me.
Shreds of Sanity - 2.5 (1.5, 3.5 in the spells deck). Turn 6 cast this, getting back Alchemist’s Greeting and Galvanic Bombardment. Immediately discard the greeting for 4, cast bombardment for 2 on something else. I wouldn’t play this card unless I was in the 9+ spell deck, but this seems very good anytime you can get back high quality spells.
Smoldering Werewolf - 3.5. The base bodies are a bit weak, but the triggers have such high potential that I would be shocked if this wasn’t a very high pick.
Spreading Flames - 3.0. This reminds me of Serpentine Spike in terms of durdliness. The payoff is certainly there, but I’m not sure if it’s necessarily worth committing to a card that requires you to get to 7 mana.
Stensia Banquet - 1.5 (1.0 + 0.2 per vampire you have). This card isn’t actively good unless you have 2 vampires on the board, and that seems relatively unlikely in this set given the vampires available. This is amazing in the deck with 10+ vampires, but most of the time will just not do anything meaningful.
Stensia Innkeeper - 2.0. More hill giants with random upsides! Being a vampire in red is relevant, but I’m not entirely sure how much the land clause is. Best case scenario on curve this prevents your opponent from playing a 4 or 5 drop that they were depending on, average is just that they end up playing a 3 drop that they would have played anyways. Worst case is this is a hill giant that has the text vampire on it, which isn’t that bad of a place to be.
Stromkirk Occultist - 3.0. Mostly just a 3 mana 3/2 with random madness upside. More often than not this will probably get you a card during the trade due to the trample damage which is nice, but it doesn’t seem better than good removal.
Thermo-Alchemist - 3.0 (2.5, 3.5 in spells) - 3 toughness blocks all of the other bears, while this card just slowly chips your opponent out of the game. Lobber Crew was a very strong card, and this guy is faster and probably better in general. Obviously not as great in aggro decks as he can’t snowball the board for you, but even then, he’ll probably get 4-5 damage throughout the course of the game which is pretty good for a 2 drop.
Vildin-Pack Outcast - 2.5. A bit slow, but having a late game mana sink is generally good, and this one has trample to boot.
Weaver of Lightning - 3.5 (2.5, 4.0 in spells). Same issues as the alchemist in aggro, but this card is an absolute monster in the spells deck. Getting an extra damage on your spells suddenly makes Galvanic Bombardment into Arc Lightning, and chained cantrips like Unsubtantiate into Take Inventory destroy your opponents 2 toughness creatures. Coupled with how a 1/4 reach just blocks almost all of the 3 drops in the format, and this will probably end up being strong enough to go into the spells deck for.
Green
Backwoods Survivalists - 2.5 (2.5, 3.0 in delerium). 4 power allows this to trade with most of the 4-6 drops in the format, but 3 toughness is bad as it trades down with 3/2s. +1/+1 on the delerium is very important for this card, as 5/4 is significantly more difficult to deal with.
Bloodbriar - 2.5 (1.5 + 0.33 per sac card you have, 3.0 in GW). A 3 mana 2/3 is bad, but a 3 mana 3/4 is amazing. You probably need 3 or so sac matters cards in order to consider this actively good, but it has the potential to get there. Notable sac cards besides emerge in the format include Choking Restraints, Lunarch Mantle, and Terrarion, so this card might actually be significantly better in GW. I also somehow completely forgot about clues, which makes this card essentially Tireless Tracker and should give enough things to sac to make this a good card to pick up reasonably early and actively look for enablers. The lack of good enablers in EDM still probably makes this card a tad too inconsistent to be rated higher, but this may actually be a 3.0 once the format is figured out. This should be a 3.0 in GW, where the interaction with Lunarch Mantle is insane and probably shouldn't be in the format at common.
Clear Shot - 3.5. This seems pretty close to Murder in green, which is a very good place to be. It does have a real downside of needing a guy big enough to fight the other creature (say you're facing down a huge 5/7 crab), and being prone to blown out by something like murder.
Crop Sigil - 2.0 (1.5 + 3.0 in delerium). You specifically need to be in a delerium or graveyard deck for this card to matter, but this seems like a very good turn 1 investment/enabler for the archetype.
Crossroads Consecrator 1.0 (1.0, 2.5 in GW humans) - Anointer of Champions was pretty good in origins, but this costing a mana and requiring the creature be human makes the card far worse. That being said, these types of cards thrive around just the threat of activation, so if you are curving out with humans then this card can be pretty good. The main issue is getting the 2 drops to do this as green's 2 drops are a bunch of non human durdles, but that deck will definitely want one of these guys.
Decimator of Provinces - 4.5. Casting this on a 4 mana 3/3 reads 5: +4/+4, trample, EtB: your other dudes have overrun. Needless to say, it's probably going to be hard to lose the game if you are anywhere near even on board when you play this.
Eldrich Evolution - 1.5 (1.5+1.5 if you have an insane bomb to get out with this). This is kind of like an aura that upgrades your guy to something that costs 2 more than it, which is generally something like +2/+1 and passable for 3 mana.
Emrakul's Influence - 0.5. I've seen enough mediocre build around me enchantments to know that 4 mana is way too expensive to spend on a do nothing enchantment that doesn't generate immediate board impact.
Emrakul's Evangel - 3.0. This messes up combat math considerably if you leave it untapped, but will probably end up being a 3 mana 3/2 the vast majority of the time. There are a couple of ways to abuse this ability in green (It of the Horrid Swarm in particular), so this can sometimes be a huge blowout.
Foul Emissary - 3.0 (1.5 + 0.5 per emerge card you have). You could do a lot worse than a 3 mana Elvision Visionary, and this one even finds creatures for you to emerge out of him. The upside of casting emerge on him is high enough that I think he's worth speculating on around pick 4-7 picks, but you do run the risk of just not having enough emerge creatures.
Gnarlwood Dryad - 2.5 (2.5, 3.0 in delerium). Sedge Scorpion that randomly grows in a delerium deck, sign me up!
Grapple with the Past - 2.0 (1.5, 3.0 in delerium). This will on average probably get 2-3 card types in the yard and either draw the next creature in your deck or get back a bomb that died, which seems key for the delerium deck, and mediocre otherwise. Unfortunately the delerium payoffs in the format don't seem that high, so I wouldn't prioritize this too highly.
Hamlet Captain - 3.0 (2.5, 3.0 in a humans deck). This card adds a lot of pressure to the humans deck if you can curve out with humans and protect it with a combat trick or two. Plus it's a bear, so it can't be bad!
Ishkanah, Grafwidow - 4.0 (2.5, 4.5 in delerium) A glorified Watcher in the Web without delerium, and a complete monster with delerium. The upside is large enough that I would be actively looking to move into delerium just to get this active, since the extra spiders add an insane amount of almost always relevant stats to the board.
It of the Horrid Swarm - 2.0. 4/4 is a good enough statline that I would probably play one of these in most green decks in the Kessig Dire Swine slot for most green decks. The 1/1s help mitigate some risk of your opponent having removal for it, and you get a solid pile of stats for the cost.
Kessig Prowler - 3.0 - weak to pings is a liability, but being able to trade with bears and having late game relevance should make this a solid pick overall.
Mockery of Nature - 1.5. Great if you can get an artifact/enchantment off of the trigger, and mediocre otherwise.
Noose Constrictor - 3.0. Wild Mongrel! This trades a card in your hand for your opponents bears, but that is a great exchange since it cost you 0 tempo. This even has reach to boot.
Prey Upon - 2.5. Remember Unnatural Aggression in BFZ and how that was almost stone unplayable because greens creatures just did not have big enough stats to use the card effectively? Now look at the common creatures green has in this format, and think about how hard it would be to kill a 3/2 or even a 2/3 given what you see. One thing this card does have going for it is that it can be extremely efficient as it's a great stabilizing play in the later turns of the game when your It of the Horrid Swarm can prey upon their 4 drop for 1 mana, but you need to jump through some hoops to get there.
Primal Druid - 1.5. (2.5 in 3+ color control) I'm leaning towards this being a bad card, but I can't tell for sure. This is mediocre to sac to emerge since you can't use the land towards the emerge cost and probably don't need the mana by that point. Your opponent also decides if they want to attack into it, so the ramp probably won't end up being relevant too often. I'm guessing this ends up being Natural Connection on turn 4-5 that gains you 5-7 life by blocking a bear a couple of turns before you cache it in by blocking their 3/2, which seems fine for big mana decks, but puts a lot of control on your opponent for deciding when you get the land. The thing is with the other common 2 drop being Ulvenwald Captive, I wonder if green is forced to play the ramp/midrange strategy, in which case this card gets a lot better. Also one of the few ways to enable a splash (sort of.)
Shrill Howler - 3.0. The filp side is tough to block and generates a lot of value, but 1 toughness is a liability with all of the pings running around at common. The card is strong enough that I don't think I would ever cut it, but it seems a little off from being truly amazing.
Somberwald Stag. 3.5. Destroys target 2 power creature for 5 mana. Sometimes you get blown out by a trick, other times you get a sweet 5 mana 2 for 1.
Spirit of the Hunt - 3.5. The trigger doesn't seem relevant enough in the majority of cases for this to be more than a 3 mana 3/3 flash, but even that in of itself is still a pretty good card with considerable upside.
Splendid Reclamation - 0.0. No.
Springsage Ritual - 0.5. Sideboards.
Swift Spinner - 1.5. Yeah this eats bears and 2 power fliers, but it only trades against 3/2s, and gets eaten by all of the 4 mana 3/3s in the format. The card is hanging by a thread at 2.0 since it does effectively deal with the early common fliers, but I wouldn't be surprised if this was actually a 1.5 that is relegated to the sideboard due to how poorly the body matches up.
Tangleclaw Werewolf - 3.0. 4 mana 2/4s are reasonable defensive bodies in this format, and the flip side of this card looks very powerful in the late game. 7 mana is quite expensive though, so expect this to mostly just be a 2/4.
Ulvenwald Captive - 2.5. Given how it is very hard for green to be aggressive in this format given their 2 drops, most green decks should be midrange/fatty based, in which case a 2 drop that ramps you and randomly transforms into a late game beater seems perfect for. Mana dorks usually are weak because they fall off in the late game due to not having anything to ramp into, but this guy solves its own problem!
Ulvenwald Observer - 1.5. The value is real, but creatures are pretty small in this format, and I can't help but think that this is really just a Kessig Dire Swine in disguise. The main problem with big dumb green creatures tend to be that they don't stabilize against fliers, get chump blocked, or lose a ton of tempo when they are removed, and this card does not really do anything to prevent that. There aren't really many 4 toughness guys in the format either, so I'm not even sure if this is better than old Kessig Dire Swine
Waxing Moon - 1.0 (0.0 + 0.5 per Ulvenwald Captive, Kessig Prowler, Shrill Howler in your deck). Spending a card to transform your wolf and be open to getting blown out by a removal spell seems pretty loose, but we need to consider the times where doing this can single handedly win you the game. If we look at the werewolves that can do this, It seems like playing the card on any of the 3 mentioned above might get you there single handedly, in which case it might be worth the risk.
Wolfkin Bond - 2.5. Knightly Valor ended up being a very sweet card, and Wolfy Valor is probably not that far off. Not having vigilance is a pretty big deal, but bears should do well in this format, and +2/+2 makes the guy you put this on a big threat that has to be dealt with, in a format light on interaction.
Woodcutter's Grit - 2.0. 3 mana combat tricks are typically pretty mediocre, but given greens utter lack of ways to interact with your opponent in this format otherwise, this is a card that will see a lot of play in your green decks.
Woodland Patrol - 2.0. 3/2s with minor upside, weeeee.
Emrakul, the Promised End - 0.0 (4.5 in dedicated delerium control). The card is obviously insane if you can cast it, the problem is whether or not you can cast it. The last format has shown that most average decks will only manage creature/sorcery/instant in your yard at best meaning that this card costs 10-11 and is mostly unplayable simply because casting it is impossible. However, for the 18 land delerium decks in the format that want to durdle, I don’t see there being a sweeter win condition than this.
Eternal Scourge - 3.0. On one hand it can’t die from removal, on the other hand a single targeted trigger causes you to lose 3 mana in tempo and recast it (Smouldering Werewolf, half of a Borrowed Malevolence, Make Mischief. I assume that this balances out to just it being a 3/3 for 3 on average, which is a solid body.
Bloodhall Priest - 3.5. Sometimes this will be a 3 mana 4/4 that singlehandedly wins you the game with its attack triggers, but the average case involves this being a 4 mana 4/4 with random upside in the lategame, which is still pretty good considering how big 4/4 is in this format. Black having the 2 mana bear enabler at common makes the upside on this card very relevant. Seems a bit inconsistent to take over something like murder though.
Campaign of Vengeance - 1.5. Draining your opponent is nice and all, but when was the last time that a 5 mana enchantment which didn't directly impact board presence was playable? This seems great with the silly 1/1 spirit tokens roaming around and can probably steal games where your tokens go uncontested and just ping them through the air, but it can also lose games where you're behind on board and play a 5 mana do nothing enchantment.
Heron's Grace Champion 3.5. Ambushes bears, swings combat and races into your favor. Seems like a pretty good card to me.
Gisa and Geralf - 4.0. The effect will win all grindy games, but the question is how many relevant zombies you can get in the yard that you actually want to cast. I imagine this will be a 4 mana 4/4 that randomly casts a few zombies from the yard or enables delerium, which is a solid package for the mana.
Grim Flayer - 3.5. This card takes over the game if you can force it through a couple of times (which is easy with tricks and trample), and in the worst case is a bear that eventually deleriums into a 4/4 if you can't. The main issue here is that greens only combat trick in the format is Woodcutter's Grit, which prevents this card from being truly insane as most of the time it will just trade and die.
Lashweed Lurker - 3.5. Playing this on a 3 drop is mostly the same as playing an aura that says +2/+1, Time Ebb your opponents best guy for 4 mana. Time Ebb is worth a card by itself, so this card seems like a strong tempo play.
Mournwillow - 2.5. More 3 mana 3/2s with upside, yay! I don't think this will fit that well with what GB is trying to do in this format (green has trouble doing anything even remotely aggressive), so it will probably end up only being merely okay as opposed to insane.
Ride Down - 2.5. RW can be built rather aggressively this format, and this is just terminate in an aggressive deck. Terrible if you are behind, but amazing if you are ahead which you probably will be in RW.
Spell Queller - 3.5. The amount of tempo that you get from this card just seems absurd. On turn 3, you cast this and exile whatever their turn 3 or 4 play is. If your opponent removes it the following turn, then this ended up being a 3 mana 2/3 flash that frost breaths their guy which is fine, and if your opponent doesn't have it, then this just ends up being a terminate on a stick. Tempted to give this a higher rating since the best case scenario is insane, but meh.
Tamiyo, Field Researcher - 4.5. Draws you infinite cards and can temporarily protect itself. It being 3 colors and its requirement of being relatively even on board prevent it from being completely unbeatable, but it's close if you can cast her on turn 4 with some kind of board.
Ulrich of the Krallenhorde - 4.5. Both triggers are amazing in the typical aggressive decks. His weak base stats means that he won't singlehandedly swing a losing game for you, but there's more than enough upside to consider him a bomb.
Cathar's Shield - 1.5. (probably 1.0, but maybe by some miracle it's actually a 2.0) I wonder if the fact that creatures slanting towards higher power than toughness makes this card better than completely unplayable, which is what any previous equipment which only boosted toughness has ever been rated. Vigilance can be a pretty big deal and 3 mana for +0/+3 is actually somewhat efficient. Going bear into this on turn 3 equip lets it rumble with any 3/2s out there, and the tempo loss is actually not that bad compared to most equipment.
Cultist's Staff - 2.0 (2.5 in decks with a lot of early creatures and not many cards that cost 5+ mana) +2/+2 is very big, but this is rather mana inefficient since it costs 5 mana for only +2/+2 of benefit. That cost is fine if your curve mostly ends at 4, but I wouldn't play this in decks that go higher.
Field Creeper - 2.0 (2.5 in green). This may as well be a green card, since if you need a 2 mana 2 power creature and/or need to activate delerium, then this fits the bill. 1 toughness is a liability, but when your alternatives are a 1/2 defender or a 0/3, then it's probably worth taking the risk.
Geist-Fueled Scarecrow - 2.5 (2.0 if your curve has 5 drops, 3.0 in aggro). 4/4 for 4 is gigantic in this format, and the downside is not that big of a deal in most situations as many mana sinks are on activated abilities as opposed to casting big creatures. Wouldn't be surprised if this got +0.5 across the board after the format shakes out.
Slayer's Cleaver - 1.0. I would be very surprised if the format is slow enough that 7 mana for +3/+1 ends up being playable.
Soul Separator - 1.0. This looks like 8 mana for a reanimate effect that gets you a random 1/1 flier, which seems way too expensive for what it does.
Stiticher's Graft - 1.5. This seems amazing on vigilant creatures, and terrible on everything else. Paying 3 mana for a Lava Spike that can get chumped seems bad, so I don't see this being played outside of a few specific decks. Worth noting that you can make a single huge defender with this which seems interesting, but then again you can't move the equipment until it dies so it might seems questionable. I see very few vigilant creatures at common, so I am not hopeful.
Terrarion - 2.0 (1.0, 2.5 with delerium). The nightmare is drawing this in a topdeck war, as you need to wait a turn before it replaces itself. However, this is an incredibly efficient way to put an artifact in your graveyard for delerium, and the majority of colors have cards that care about delerium.
Thirsting Axe - 1.5. (2.0 in flying token aggro) What a bizarre card. The main use I can see for this is for aggressive decks to either force trades on their tokens, or convert 1/1 fliers into 4 extra damage to the face. Since this doesn't work at all on defense (your guy on defense didn't deal combat damage to a creature so you need to sacrifice it), this card works much more like trumpet blast than a real equipment. However, it seems efficient enough that if you do have a bunch of fliers or expendible bodies lying around, then this will probably end up winning the game over the course of a few turns for you.
Lands
Geier Reach Sanitarium - 2.5 as an enabler, 0.0 otherwise. You need to have some way to break the symmetrical effect, and the main ways to do this in the format are either to enable delerium, or madness something out so if your deck can do this, then this card seems like a relatively free (albeit tempo expensive way) to do it. The main issue is that 3 mana is a lot to spend on this effect since your opponent gets it as well without spending the mana, so you need to have reasons to play it.
Hanweir Battlements - 2.0. Spending 2 mana to give a guy haste is not efficient enough for me to want to take this land much higher, but it's fine if you're in the colors.
Nephalia Academy - 0.5. There are not enough playable discard spells to make me consider mainboarding this, but it could be a decent side in against that one guy who plays them.
White
Thraben Standard Bearer
Sigardian Priest
Guardian of Pilgrims
Steadfast Cathar
Ironclad Slayer
Dawn Gryff
Desperate Sentry
Spectral Reserves
Fiend Binder
Faithbearer Paladin
Choking Restraint
Borrowed Grace
Lunarch Mantle
Ironwright’s Cleansing
Blue
Tattered Haunter
Fogwalker
Ingenious Skaab
Exultant Cultist
Laboratory Brute
Enlightened Maniac
Wretched Gryff
Drag Under
Spontaneous Mutation
Convolute
Take Inventory
Displace
Contingency Plan
Turn Aside
Red
Falkenrath Reaver
Thermo-Alchemist
Brazen Wolves
Make Mischief
Stensia Innkeeper
Vildin-Pack Outcast
Galvanic Bombardment
Alchemist’s Greeting
Otherworldly Burst
Borrowed Hostility
Stensia Banquet
Distemper of the Blood
Prophetic Ravings
Black
Olivia’s Dragoon
Wailing Ghoul
Graf Rats
Skirsdag Supplicant
Thraben Foulbloods
Gavony Unhallowed
Weirded Vampire
Midnight Scavengers
Boon of Emrakul
Borrowed Malevolence
Certain Death
Succumb to Temptation
Cemetary Recruitment
Strange Augmentation
Green
Crossroads Consecrator
Primal Druid
Ulvenwald Captive
Bloodbriar
Woodland Patrol
Backwoods Survivalists
Swift Spinner
Wolfkin Bond
It of the Horrid Swarm
Prey Upon
Woodcutter’s Grit
Grapple with the Past
Springsage Ritual
Borrowed Grace is much better than it looks. Removal and creature interaction (especially at instant) is at a minimum, so White has plenty of time to just flood the board and set up a giant game changing attack. Plus, there are at least some cards that promote a go-wide strategy at common, namely It of the Horrid Swarm.
Faithbearer Paladin is one of the only defensive creatures available to white, and it can swing the game with an errant buff spell.
Ironclad Slayer seems like a payoff card for W/B with Dead Weight and Boon of Emrakul more than anything.
I fully agree with your entry on Desperate Sentry, but I would like to add that it's a good Emerge target.
It's worth mentioning that the tap ability of Sigardian Priest is much less effective in some match-ups.
Green has not a fatty it's true... but it does get a great uncommon removal spell in Clear Shot
Let this great clan rest in peace (2001-2011)
Blue - I think Fortune's Favor is a little low and Drag Down and Chilling Grasp are a little high. I think in a random midrange deck you don't want multiples of any of these, but in the right deck you might want more. Sorcery speed on DD is a big downer.
I think Displace has combos in other colors (white and black mostly), but it's a niche card for sure.
Mind's Dialation seems like an interesting win con for a control deck, but obviously you have to lock down the board.
Goblins have poor impulse control. Don't click this link!!
some of my favourite flavour text:
Wayward Soul
"no home no heart no hope"
—Stronghold graffito
Raging Goblin
He raged at the world, at his family, at his life. But mostly he just raged.
I'd put woodcutter's grit at 3.0. Given the darth of instant tricks in all colors and the average size of creatures, getting +3/+3 is huge. The hexproof is icing on the cake to counter their removal. I'd say it's the rabid bite of the set.
2/3s were bad in SoI so I assumed they would be bad here. After thinking about it some more, 3/2s seem to be generally better than 2/3s in more recent formats because of what I perceive to be the following reasons:
1. 2/3s are inherently weaker to small pump effects than 3/2s are, and combat tricks have gotten way better in recent formats due to instant speed removal getting way worse. Rush of Adrenaline, Strength of Arms, [card]Confront the Unknown/card] were all considered solid cards by the end of the format, and they were good because creatures are now small enough that +1 toughness a lot of the time makes the difference between your guy dying and surviving in combat, and winning combat off of 1 mana to trade for 2 or 3 of theirs was often enough to put you ahead enough on board to win the game shortly after. Support on bears in Oath is also a good example of 2/3s faring far worse than 3/2s. This makes it seem that nowadays, it's better to have a creature that is more likely to trade with something but generally can't survive post combat (a 3/2) than it is to have something that profitably blocks some cards but gets blown out by +1 power/toughness. 3/2s are just generally less likely to be blown out by something than a 2/3 is.
2. 3 power is a lot more than 2 power when unanswered, and recent formats favor aggression more than control. This is a concept I didn't think much about until after playing Hearthstone for a bit. I play a very control oriented class in that game (priest), and have concluded after a while that a 3 power guy on turn 2 generally needed to be removed immediately, whereas a 2 power guy generally could be left up and killed with an AoE spell down the road. The reasoning for that was simply because a 3 power guy kills you in 10 turns whereas a 2 power guy kills you in 15, and that seemingly small difference ends up mattering quite a bit, as being down to 11 life as opposed to 14 life if the card is unanswered over three turns does end up mattering some of the time.
3. 2/3s are near guaranteed to be obsoleted by your opponents 4 drop, whereas a 3/2 isn't. Almost every single 4 drop common in the set is a 3/3. Looking at all of them, we have Fiend Binder, Spectral Reserves, Laboratory Brute, Enlightened Maniac, Gavony Unhallowed, Weirded Vampire, Stensia Innkeeper, Backwoods Survivalists, Swift Spinner. A 3/2 is obviously better versus the 3/3s, so lets take a look at the cases where a 2/3 would theoretically be better:
Spectral Reserves - They can't trade the tokens into a 2/3 compared to a 3/2 so on paper this is better. However, going to the last point, your 2 damage a turn is unlikely to actually pressure your opponent into wanting to trade in the first place. Most of the time they'll just gladly offer the race since they gain two life and their fliers are much harder to block than your 2/3 down the road.
Gavony Unhallowed - 2/3 can bounce with a 2/4 whereas a 3/2 gets eaten alive. However, since the 2/3 can't actually attack past the 2/4, them playing the card stalls the board, which favors them due to the ability on the zombie. In this case, I would still rather have a 3/2, since the board is stalled either way, and the 3/2 at least allows me to represent more tricks and force through more damage should I have an answer to the zombie.
Swift Spinner - I would rather trade a 3/2 into the spinner than have it bounce with a 2/3.
The zombie is the only case where a 2/3 might be better than a 3/2. Against everything else, I would much rather have the 3/2 so the 2/3 seems pretty bad comparatively speaking.
Interestingly enough, the tricks in this format seem a lot sparser than SoI, so there aren't that many tricks that help a bear efficiently eat a 2/3 which might make the 2/3s better. Unfortunately, I still don't think it looks good for the 2/3s, especially given how the common pillars of the format will probably be Brazen Wolves and Ingenious Skaab, and it's pretty easy to see how much worse a 2/3 is compared to a 3/2 when dealing with these creatures.
Yes, and this probably also applies somewhat to sealed as well.
The key word here is "good", and I'm not sold on Borrowed Grace being good. While the modes are flexible and can help out with the alpha strike in the late game, 3 mana for +0/+2 or +2/+0 seems pretty bad. Maybe the threat of activation prevents your opponent from making profitable blocks, but this seems easily played around.
+3/+3 is huge, but 3 mana is huge as well. Good combat tricks have generally overcome their inherent weaknesses of being prone to instant speed removal blowouts by being more mana efficient so that you can play more dudes in the same turn. Turn 4: Rush of Adrenaline your guy, kill their 3 drop for 1 mana, play a 3 drop of your own. 3 mana on the other hand, takes up your entire turn so you can't do anything else, which eliminates the main upside to playing tricks and changes this to a relatively clunky removal spell that doesn't force through damage. If the format is just going to be 3/2 the format, then relying on the combat trick to contest the board seems way less flexible than just say just dropping down another 3/2. Hexproof isn't that big of a deal either, since you generally can't afford to hold up 3 mana for something that they might not even cast, and you also can't protect the threats you need to protect on the turn you cast them. Green's lack of any other good combat modifiers at common mean that you will definitely play these in your deck, but they're nowhere near as good as Rabid Bite, nor should they be taken remotely as high.
Updated some ratings:
Skirsdag Supplicant - 1.5 >> 2.5. 2/3s are not great as I've said, but the ability is incredibly relevant at closing out games where you are ahead. Thinking about how the card plays out, I'm guessing that this can just very often push through the final points of damage needed to win you the game. Wouldn't be surprised if this was a 3.0.
Wolfkin Bond - 2.5 >> 3.0. This adds a ton of pressure to your board given how small creatures are in this format. I believe in the Wolfy valor.
Bloodbriar - 1.5 >> 2.5. Clues are permanents that you can sac as well.
Drag Under - 3.5 >> 3.0. Tipped off by zenbitz, this card is good but I wouldn't take it over Choking Restraints
Thanks, added that and the true colorless cards (Emrakul + the 3/3 guy).
Some more updates regarding a potentially degenerate combo that was right in front of us the entire time. I'll make a separate thread for it as it might end up breaking the format:
Bloodbriar >> Now a 3.0 in GW.
Lunarch Mantle 1.5 >> 2.0, and a 2.5 in GW.
Drownyard Explorers get better, probably, given that it can block 3/2s. (Note that I believe it was already a better Blue common.)
Explosive Apparatus both gets better given that it looks like it kills more, and because Delirium seems a much better archetype.
Howlpack Wolf looks like it gets worse, if 3/2 for 3 is now the standard in the environment.
Inquisitor's Ox seems to get a lot better.
Insolent Neonate gets worse, as there is a much better discard outlet for Vampires at Common in EMN, and fewer Madness cards.
Loam Dryad looks like it might get better due to Emerge. (Tap the creature you are going to sacrifice...)
Puncturing Light may get better.
Rottenheart Ghoul likely improves.
Sanguinary Mage is perhaps one of the best early drops to hold up a 3/2 onslaught. (Best is the Triffid, I think.)
So yeah, high toughness creatures look like they get better.
Ht
Um you mean by holding up an instant? That doeznt seem great.
Subjugator Angel - 4.0 >> 3.5 I would never take this over Lightning Axe, but would consider taking it over Fiery Temper. Also adjusted some ratings that were thinking too much in best case scenario as opposed to the average case.
Graf Rats - 2.5 >> 2.0. Base rating is too high given 1 toughness.
Ruthless Disposal - 4.0 >> 3.0. Probably acts more like a Reduce to Ash in this format given how the creatures are generally interchangeable in this set. Upside is there with tokens in particular, but in the average case it's probably only slightly better than a 5 mana single target removal spell.
Courageous Outrider - 3.5 >> 3.0. Wouldn't take it over temper.
Take Inventory - 2.5 >> 2.0. 2.5s generally need to be playable in most decks, and while the upside for this card is there, sometimes you just can't play it if you only end up with 1 or 2 copies.
Wretched Gryff - 2.5 >> 2.0. Fills the finisher spot, but you aren't always happy to have it.
Dusk Feaster - 3.0 >> 2.5. It being bad in non delerium decks makes this closer to a 2.5 than 3.0 in pick order.
Graf Harvest - 3.0 >> 2.5. Same as above, - delerium + zombies.
Haunted Dead - 3.5 >> 3.0.
Assembled Alphas - 3.5 >> 3.0.
Blood Mist - 3.5 >> 3.0.
Impetous Devils - 2.5 >> 2.0.
Insatiable Gorgers - 2.5 >> 2.0. Being forced to attack if able seems not good in a format full of 3/2s that will trade up with this, even if it has madness. Luckily red tends to be aggressive, but it's still a bit too inconsistent for a 2.5.
Ulvenwald Captive - 3.0 >> 2.5. Doesn't fit in aggro decks, so gets a ding.
Fair point. I would say that this is relatively minor, since you generally do not want to be in the position where you need to double block anyways due to tricks being a thing. Having a higher toughness body is nice in those cases though: I imagine that the 4 mana 2/4 ends up doing more work on that front.
Anyway, great work, thank you a lot for your time making this. I like your logic and most of the ratings. Actually, some of them make more sense than Reid Duke's ratings on CF.
~from Russia with love
One other indicator to me is that Brazen Wolves and Ingenious Skaab are probably the two most powerful common 3 drop creatures in the format. 2/3 performs very poorly against them, whereas a 3/2 trades evenly into them.
All common creatures with cmc 2+ by reference: think about a 2/3 fares in combat compared to a 3/2 against most of these creatures. The main place where a 2/3 is better is when it's blocking a 2/2, but that doesn't seem as important as a 3/2 being to trade into a 4 drop due to the inherit advantage in attacking compared to blocking due to crappy removal and decent tricks.
Sigardian Priest
Guardian of Pilgrims
Steadfast Cathar
Tattered Haunter
Fogwalker
Falkenrath Reaver
Thermo-Alchemist
Olivia’s Dragoon
Wailing Ghoul
Graf Rats
Primal Druid
Ulvenwald Captive
Ironclad Slayer
Thraben Foulbloods
Woodland Patrol
Dawn Gryff
Desperate Sentry
Ingenious Skaab
Exultant Cultist
Skirsdag Supplicant
Brazen Wolves
Make Mischief
Bloodbriar
Spectral Reserves
Fiend Binder
Laboratory Brute
Enlightened Maniac
Backwoods Survivalists
Swift Spinner
Stensia Innkeeper
Gavony Unhallowed
Weirded Vampire
Faithbearer Paladin
Vildin-Pack Outcast
Midnight Scavengers
Wolfkin Bond
Wretched Gryff
4.5 - A ridiculous bomb that will singlehandedly carry you the game if left unanswered, but can generally be dealt with by the premium removal spells in the format.
4.0 - Cards that give you a major advantage when left unanswered or used, but will not singlehandedly win you the game.
3.0 - A strong card that generally puts you ahead in some form (incremental advantage with Byway Courier, pure aggression from Brazen Wolves if you end up playing it on curve, etc. Will generally put you ahead if your opponent answers with a low quality filler card. If you cut this card from your deck, then your deck is ridiculous.
2.5 - One of the better plays for its mana cost that will almost always keep you at parity or be slightly ahead of your opponent if played on curve. Should be playable in almost every deck in the color, or has a strong synergy that pushes you towards an archetype. You are extremely happy if all of your cards are of this tier.
2.0 - Generally filler that has some random synergy that works in a particular deck, but is not strong enough to be consistently played across any deck in that color.
1.5 - Pure filler. Generally trades with most other cards played at this cost, but doesn’t really do enough to give you an actual advantage unless your opponent completely skips their turn.
Blessed Alliance - 3.0 >> 2.5. You need to be in a defensive or flying based deck for this to be good, and there are a non trivial amount of incidental tokens in the format.
Drogskol Shieldmate - 3.0 >> 2.5. Not consistent or efficient enough to be as good as Byway Courier.
Extricator of Sin - 3.0 (2.0, 3.5 in delerium) >> 2.5 (1.0, 3.0 in delerium). The effect is powerful, but not having a random thing to sac makes the card a lot worse, as a 0/3 just doesn't do anything. The payoff is strong, but the risk of it being a 6 mana Enlightened Maniac is very high.
Faith Unbroken - 3.5 >> 2.0. Turns out that the 2 for 1 risk is still enough that you can't randomly jam this into any deck. It's great in the decks that don't mind getting 2 for 1ed if removing their blocker for the turn is worth it (aggro decks), but it's nowhere near as good as just rpemium removal.
Faithbearer Paladin - 2.5 >> 2.0. Most decks can't afford to run more than 1-2 5-6 drops that do not significantly push you towards winning the game. While this one can do some work in a racing situation, it's not big enough to single handedly win the board late in the game, which is a big downside in a format full of random huge cards that do that.
Fiend Binder - 2.5 >> 1.5. The aggro ground based decks want it, but the stats are so weak on turn 4 that you really need to be able to put enough pressure on your opponent that they trade the early turns so that this guy doesn't just get eaten by a 2/2.
Give No Ground - 2.0 >> 1.0. Defensive combat tricks that cost 4 mana are bad, and I should feel bad for suggesting otherwise.
Ironclad Slayer - 2.5 >> 2.0. The random minor upside doesn't impact enough games for this to be consistently a 2.5. 2.5 in BW since you can get more auras in that archetype.
Sanctifier of Souls - 3.5 >> 3.0. Getting creatures in your yard isn't always free, and the base stats are low enough that when this card is bad, it is pretty bad.
Steadfast Cathar - 2.5 >> 2.0. You wouldn't be happy with this in a defensive or flier based deck where it's just slightly better than mediocre filler.
Thraben Standard Bearer - 1.5 >> 1.0. 1.5 cards are cards that you don't mind playing if you really need to fill the curve in most decks I would never play this to fill the curve in most decks.
Drownyard Behemoth - 4.0 >> 3.5. It's big, dumb, and can lead to blowouts, but it suffers in the same way that most other big creatures suffer from in that it is bad against fliers and chump blockers.
Enlightened Maniac - 2.5 >> 2.0 (1.5, 3.0 in Emerge decks). The card is pure filler in decks that don't have emerge guys, but a key enabler in decks that do.
Fortune's Favor - 2.5 >> 2.0. Dip in the ratings because this card isn’t great for non-delerium decks.
Grizzled Angler - 2.5 >> 3.0. The upside is gigantic, and there are artifact creatures in the format to help out with the flips. Emerge cards also seem pretty good, which helps out with the rating.
Identity Thief - 2.0 >> 1.5. The cute synergies are there, but this is very close to an even worse Fiend Binder
Laboratory Brute - 2.5 >> 1.5. Hill giants are actually pretty bad in this format given how 3 drops just trade with them, and the synergies that this guy provides isn’t relevant in UW or UG emerge.
Niblis of Frost - 4.0 >> 4.5. It’s really hard to win if your opponent untaps with this and has spells to play.
Spontaneous Mutation - 3.0 >> 2.5. Too inconsistent to be taking around cards like byway courier, but the power level is there if you have mill or delerium effects.
Tattered Haunter - 2.5 - Being terrible on defense and weak to ping effects means that the card doesn’t fit well in defensive decks, which drops the rating a little bit given how UG and UB tend to not really want this type of card. However, 2 power fliers for 2 have always been decent, and the damage you get out of this little guy most of the time should make up for that.
Take Inventory - 2.0 >> 1.5. Too hard to get enough copies for this to be good. I wouldn’t speculate with this at the 2.0 level, but would gladly take it over random filler.
Collective Brutality - 3.5 >> 3.0. Not being able to kill 3 toughness guys is a pretty big liability in the format. The random upside off of trading a land for one of the spells in their hand is good, but it’s not premium removal good.
Grat Rats - 2.0 >> 1.5 (+ 1.0 per copy of midnight scavengers in the deck). Scavengers makes this card really good, but the base rate is pure mediocre filler.
Liliana’s Elite - 3.5 >> 3.0 (2.5 + 0.25 per instance of self mill you have). The card is good, but takes some work to get going, whereas a 3.5 card should just consistently be good.
Skirsdag Supplicant - 2.5 >> 2.0. The base body is too weak for this to be a higher rating.
Blood Mist - 3.0 >> 2.5. The power level is there, but the doesn’t fit in all decks makes it deserve a lower rating.
Deranged Whelp - 3.0 >> 2.5. 1 toughness is a liability that makes it not worth it in non aggressive decks (of which there are some).
Galvanic Bombardment - 3.5 >> 3.0. It’s good, but not pacifism good. Difference between 2 and 3 is significant in the format as well despite this card’s efficiency.
Make Mischief - 2.5 >> 1.5. Eyeblight Assassin can attack while this can’t, making it not as versatile.
Nahiri’s Wrath - 5.0 >> 4.5. Takes too much work to be a true 5.0, but the blowout potential is still incredibly high.
Swift Spinner - 2.0 >> 1.5. The stats are just so weak on it that it’s pure filler most of the time.
Wolfkin Bond - 3.0 >> 2.5. Emerge decks do not really want this card as they want to emerge guys out of their random ground dudes.
Woodland Patrol - 2.5 >> 2.0. Vigilance is nice, but not nice enough to make this that much better than filler.
Eternal Scourge - 3.0 >> 2.5. 3 mana 3/3s are efficient, but not powerful enough that you are thrilled to take this card and play it in all decks.
Mournwillow - 3.0 >> 2.5. You don’t really want this in defensive delerium decks.