So during the downtime in draft at the pro tour the coverage team has been presenting the top 5 commons and uncommons of each color pair as they appear as picks 1-5 for draft winners on magic online, and i decided to write this stuff down because i found some of it very interesting. Lists are from most winning to least.
Important to remember this is first 5 picks of winning decks not like in mtgoldfish data where it's counting when a card is played in a game, so no inflated position for expensive cards that almost always win instantly or dominate once down. A lot of stuff was expected like freeblade and sentinel appearing in almost every white list, but some of the quirkier stuff is that the gold cards are almost universally the best uncommons in their archetypes (or maybe just indicitive that people who focused in on a color pair early got rewarded for it), or how certain pairs win without their synergy (like blue red has a lot of thopter producers but not something like chief of the foundry and their gold card is one of the few that isnt listed at the top) or only with their synergy (red black you see husk and victor and fleshbag but those don't appear anywhere else so it seems that only act sac really goes the distance).
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Especially the bit about the uncommon archetype lord being on top. I think the most likely meaning is that if you happen to get passed the lord of the archetype you were already drafting, you are very likely to win the draft. Both because your deck gets better and that people passing to you are not drafting our colors.
So, IDK, on that front the data would mean: try to get lucky? It does underline that reading signal is key to a good draft, but we already knew that and know just how hard it can be.
One of the card I'm surprised doesn't show up more in knightly valor. Does supression bonds and claustrophobia make it worse enough? Or is 5 mana just too much in this format? OTOH, I'm a bit surprised by lightning javelin. I've found it to be a mediocre removal card, sorcery speed just killing its value.
I've been waiting hoping someone would clarify reading the data. I'm not sure how to even read it. Winningest cards when picked as the first five picks? Or is it just saying winningest 1 thru 5 ? How many winners were there?
I.e if you were playing blue/white, then the most winners had separatist voidmage in their picks, then second greatest number playing UW had suppression bonds?
The weakness of information like this is that we don't know how represented each archetype is. It does tell us a bit about how to draft the color combos, though: forcing is stronger than usual (though to what extent is unclear without representation info). People who took high commitment cards early tended to do better.
You can organize the list by representation. That'll tell us some things. Here are the commons:
White's list seems to show more that White is incredibly deep, rather than that any of its card are particularly tier 1. That kinda means that taking speculative white picks early is less risky than for other colors, I think?
This shows us that blue is comparatively shallow (universally only two blue commons on the list, meaning that decks that didn't get those cards early tended to do more poorly). Blue is also open enough that a Whirler Rogue will get you to fall in pretty easily.
It tells us that either BR sac is a forceable deck (you can win by taking enablers early), or that BR sac is the only BR deck (you can't win *unless* you take the enablers early). Hard to tell. The same is true for UB control, and GB elves (both are enabled by taking uniquely valuable synergy cards highly). Black is the color of the synergy decks, apparently: none of its top cards are plain good creatures. Black has the fewest uncommons taken by far, which suggests that the best performance is obtained by not starting in black, as a rule (usually only on the back of Cruel Revival, or rares).
Red's commons are all easy to cast and good late, making it a good color to splash. Red also has the most representation in the list, which suggests that people taking red cards early tend to do better, maybe?
I dunno what to really say about green. Undercity Troll, Leaf Gilder, and Wild Instincts are all generically good cards and the color's success seems to be pretty much completely dependent on getting those three cards.
White/Blue
C: separatist voidmage, suppression bonds, stalwart aven, claustrophobia, topan freeblade
U: thunderclap wyvern, whirler rogue, jhessian thief, sentinel of the eternal watch, swift reckoning
White/Black
C: topan freeblade, suppression bonds, reave soul, unholy hunger, stalwart aven
U: blood-cursed knight, sentinel of the eternal watch, knightly valor, cruel revival, blessed spirits
White/Red
C: topan freeblade, ghirapur gearcrafter, lightning javelin, fiery impulse, supression bonds
U: iroas's champion, consul's lieutenant, acolyte of the inferno, patron of the valiant, thopter engineer
White/Green
C: supression bonds, topan freeblade, wild instincts, leaf gilder, rhox maulers
U: citadel castellan, undercity troll, valeron wardens, sentinel of the eternal watch, patron of the valiant
Blue/Black
C: reave soul, unholy hunger, seperatist voidmage, claustrophobia, read the bones
U: whirler rogue, cruel revival, possessed skaab, tower geist, jhessian thief
Blue/Red
C: ghirapur gearcrafter, fiery impulse, lightning javelin, seperatist voidmage, claustrophobia
U: whirler rogue, thopter engineer, jhessian thief, reclusive artificer, ravaging blaze
Blue/Green
C: separatist voidmage, leaf gilder, claustrophobia, rhox maulers, wild instincts
U: bounding krasis, whirler rogue, skysnare spider, undercity troll, tower geist
Black/Red
C: fiery impulse, reave soul, ghirapur gearcrafter, lightning javelin, nantuko husk
U: blazing hellhound, ravaging blaze, cruel revival, enthralling victor, fleshbag marauder
Black/Green
C: leaf gilder, unholy hunger, reave soul, wild instincts, elvish visionary
U: shaman of the pack, dwynen's elite, skysnare spider, undercity troll, cruel revival
Red/Green
C: fiery impulse, leaf gilder, ghirapur gearcrafter, lightning javelin, wild instincts
U: zendikar incarnate, undercity troll, ravaging blaze, seismic elemental, thopter engineer
Important to remember this is first 5 picks of winning decks not like in mtgoldfish data where it's counting when a card is played in a game, so no inflated position for expensive cards that almost always win instantly or dominate once down. A lot of stuff was expected like freeblade and sentinel appearing in almost every white list, but some of the quirkier stuff is that the gold cards are almost universally the best uncommons in their archetypes (or maybe just indicitive that people who focused in on a color pair early got rewarded for it), or how certain pairs win without their synergy (like blue red has a lot of thopter producers but not something like chief of the foundry and their gold card is one of the few that isnt listed at the top) or only with their synergy (red black you see husk and victor and fleshbag but those don't appear anywhere else so it seems that only act sac really goes the distance).
Especially the bit about the uncommon archetype lord being on top. I think the most likely meaning is that if you happen to get passed the lord of the archetype you were already drafting, you are very likely to win the draft. Both because your deck gets better and that people passing to you are not drafting our colors.
So, IDK, on that front the data would mean: try to get lucky? It does underline that reading signal is key to a good draft, but we already knew that and know just how hard it can be.
One of the card I'm surprised doesn't show up more in knightly valor. Does supression bonds and claustrophobia make it worse enough? Or is 5 mana just too much in this format? OTOH, I'm a bit surprised by lightning javelin. I've found it to be a mediocre removal card, sorcery speed just killing its value.
I.e if you were playing blue/white, then the most winners had separatist voidmage in their picks, then second greatest number playing UW had suppression bonds?
You can organize the list by representation. That'll tell us some things. Here are the commons:
4 Topan Freeblade
2 Stalwart Aven
4 Separatist Voidmage
4 Claustrophobia
4 Reave Soul
3 Unholy Hunger
1 Read the Bones
1 Nantuko Husk
4 Ghirapur Gearcrafter
4 Lightning Javelin
4 Fiery Impulse
4 Wild Instincts
4 Leaf Gilder
2 Rhox Maulers
1 Elvish Visionary
And the uncommons:
3 Sentinel of the Eternal Watch
2 Patron of the Valiant
1 Swift Reckoning
1 Knightly Valor
1 Blessed Spirits
1 Consul's Lieutenant
4 Whirler Rogue
3 Jhessian Thief
2 Tower Geist
4 Cruel Revival
1 Fleshbag Marauder
3 Thopter Engineer
3 Ravaging Blaze
1 Acolyte of the Inferno
1 Enthralling Victor
1 Seismic Elemental
4 Undercity Troll
2 Skysnare Spider
1 Valeron Wardens
1 Dwynen's Elite
White's list seems to show more that White is incredibly deep, rather than that any of its card are particularly tier 1. That kinda means that taking speculative white picks early is less risky than for other colors, I think?
This shows us that blue is comparatively shallow (universally only two blue commons on the list, meaning that decks that didn't get those cards early tended to do more poorly). Blue is also open enough that a Whirler Rogue will get you to fall in pretty easily.
It tells us that either BR sac is a forceable deck (you can win by taking enablers early), or that BR sac is the only BR deck (you can't win *unless* you take the enablers early). Hard to tell. The same is true for UB control, and GB elves (both are enabled by taking uniquely valuable synergy cards highly). Black is the color of the synergy decks, apparently: none of its top cards are plain good creatures. Black has the fewest uncommons taken by far, which suggests that the best performance is obtained by not starting in black, as a rule (usually only on the back of Cruel Revival, or rares).
Red's commons are all easy to cast and good late, making it a good color to splash. Red also has the most representation in the list, which suggests that people taking red cards early tend to do better, maybe?
I dunno what to really say about green. Undercity Troll, Leaf Gilder, and Wild Instincts are all generically good cards and the color's success seems to be pretty much completely dependent on getting those three cards.