I have noticed that I end up in blue in about 60% of my JBT drafts. That's a pretty absurd number, as I'm normally a very reactive drafter. My current theory is that my evaluations of the blue commons is very different than those of others. So I'd like to run a little experiment and compare my rankings of the blue commons to the 'average'.
How would you rank the Theros blue commons? They are:
Also, it could be helpful to split them into categories, say "premium", "good", "average", "bad", "unplayable". But I'd still like to see the order within each category.
You really just need to embrace the rage. I keep a small colony of hamsters next to my computer and every time I lose a match to mana screw I throw one against the wall.
Premium: War-Wing Siren, Sigiled Starfish
Good: Cloaked Siren, Hubris, Pin to the Earth
Average: Aerial Formation, Font of Fortunes
Bad: Thassa's Devourer, Rise of Eagles, Countermand, Godhunter Octopus
Unplayable: Triton Shorestalker
The tricky thing with rating Blue cards is that it can play both aggro and control, so the rating of each card changes dynamically as you build out a strategy.
Also the usual caveat to avoid a useless debate, that I recognize that Triton Shorestalker occasionally should go in some decks, I just consider it very far from a card I would want to play. The cards in the Bad category are closer mostly because they at least impact the board without requiring some sort of Aura as a combo.
No real disagreement with Phyrre's ranking, though I'm a little more forgiving of both Thassa's Devourer and Godhunter Octopus. They do their job just fine, which is typically just stalling the ground while your real attackers do the work. I actually like Pin to the Earth more than Hubris; there's nothing more satisfying than Pinning whatever creature just got Bestowed. They have a giant blocker, sure, but that big butt also means he's likely never going to get his Bestow creature out of Aura mode.
I also agree with Phyrre56's rankings. In my view the 4 "bad" cards are bad but playable depending upon the situation, such as Rise of Eagles in a constellation deck to take advantage of the two enchantment creatures and/or to work well with other cards rewarding you for playing a sorcery, and Godhunter Octopus in a pinch if it is needed.
War-Wing Siren is interesting because it is one of the top commons but it can really turn into dust if you end up drafting a deck which does not have targeting effects, especially auras. That's usually not a problem if you draft with that in mind but sometimes things don't work out. A Sigiled Starfish works well on its own in most decks and I do not even mind first picking it if there are no very good uncommons or rare.
Here's my list:
#1 is Cloaked Siren. I like it best because it can surprise block, win games and chump, and 3 power is pretty good.
#2 Starfish, a great early-game engine, will save you from being flooded. He is a little slow though and a terrible top-deck.
#3 Pin to the Earth, stops a threat and lets you attack with impunity (e.g. inspired, spiteful returned, armory of iroas)
#4 War-Wing Siren, a solid heroic creature, but then again it's a heroic creature. Strong in heroic decks, meh everywhere else.
Through just over 60 JBT drafts I, too, find myself drafting blue often. Some thoughts:
Green/Blue is probably the best deck in the format. It really wasn't all that popular when the format first came out. The deck I found myself up against most often in finals early on was Black/White, a deck that really isn't all that formidable unless it's a really strong build (which can be devastating). At Pro Tour Journey there was a lot of talk of Green/Blue being the strongest deck in the format, and this was reinforced by Frank Karsten's pick order list shortly thereafter. Honestly, at that point, I still wasn't entirely sold on the idea but I started facing Green/Blue decks more often. Then, a lot more often. And I was losing to them. So I started drafting it more and, I must say, I'm sold. The colours are deep enough that there is almost always a good Green/Blue deck in each pod, usually two.
Anyways, about Blue more specifically, there are five really good commons and I don't think the difference in power level between them is all that great. I'd probably rate them as follows:
1) Cloaked Siren -- Just good in every Blue deck. Lets you hold up bounce/Sudden Storm/removal to prevent things from getting too hairy on your opponent's side. I love me a Horizon Chimera and this card isn't that much worse.
2) Hubris -- Certainly worse than Voyage's End but bounce will always be good in this format. I thought it was worse than it was when I first started playing JBT and probably picked it lower than the other four cards on this list. Prevents aggro decks from getting too out of hand and can provide a nice tempo swing against other deck.
3) Sigiled Starfish -- Wasn't too high on this card when it was spoiled but after my first dozen or so drafts thought it was the second best common in the set (after Golden Hind). I've come down on it a little since then, and it probably has come down in actual value a little bit just because people are figuring out how to draft more cohesive, pro-active decks. Still never upset to have a copy in my deck and do pick it quite highly.
4) War-Wing Siren -- Clearly the best Blue common in the decks that really want him but sometimes I'll take a couple of War-Wings early and have them just fall flat. Pretty awesome card, first pickable, but often a lonely 1/3. It's possible I actually rank this above Starfish but like I said above, I think the power level discrepancy between the top commons is relatively negligible. P1P1 it's probably War-Wing, but for subsequent picks it depends on what I've already drafted. I want the Starfish less if I'm playing Blue/White or Green/Blue.
5) Pin to Earth -- I think I was higher than most on this card when the set first came out and probably still am. It's good against basically everything and you can play it in any deck. Playing it on an early creature and rebuying it with Hubris in the late game can be a life saver, too. That's a pretty narrow example, but I'll play multiple copies in any Blue deck.
The only commons that I'm actively avoiding in Journey are Countermand, Thassa's Devourerer, Godhunter Octopus and Triton Shorestalker. I don't think I've ever played any of those cards (okay, I played Devourer once as filler in an awful deck).
Sometimes it seems like Blue's depth in Journey is a little problematic because you can load up on good playables and still get cut hard in the all-important pack 2 (let's face it, decks with Retraction Helix and Sudden Storm are just better). Even pack 3 can be a crapshoot for the same reasons. Particularly a problem when drafting Blue/Green since Green is basically a brick in pack 2 and leans heavily on Theros. This is a very real issue, but I'm not going to let it dissuade me from trying to draft the strongest deck possible.
My favourite deck in the format is Blue/Red Control. I don't draft it often and, when I do, I don't win with it often but it sure is fun!
I don't play Blue/Black nearly as much in this format as I did in TTT. It's one of the two decks (along with White/Black) that I've never won a draft with. I still think it's a solid deck and have played against some great examples.
I hated Blue/White early in the format and had a lot of really terrible decks. I've had some success with it since then, mostly drafting around tempo/fliers as opposed to the aggressive Blue/White styles we saw in BTT and TTT.
I even played mono-Blue once! That went about as well as you'd imagine...
Premium - Hubris, War-Wing Siren, Sigiled Starfish
Good - Cloaked Siren
Average - Aerial Formation, Pin to the Earth
Bad - Triton Shorestalker, Font of Fortunes, Rise of Eagles
Unplayable - Countermand, Godhunter Octopus, Thassa's Devourer
Hubris is definitely top tier and, unlike the other two best cards (War-Wing and Starfish) is good in any archetype. I wouldn't want Starfish in UW agro, but it's crazy good in any other blue archetype. War-Wing wouldn't make the cut without a decent number of enablers, but is pretty much just Wingsteed Rider in the right decks. The next best is Cloaked Siren - it pretty much goes into any blue archetype, too. Either as a flash threat that UB control wants, a flying guy in a flying deck or a 3 power evasive guy in any aggressive deck. Aerial Formation is a decent trick and Pin to the Earth is passable removal if you're short on it and loaded with evasive guys. The other six cards are all cards I would be very unhappy to have in a deck and probably haven't ever been forced to use more than once, if at all. Shorestalker would obviously actually be quite good if you had a couple of Ordeals, Font is never anything better than a bad Divination, Rise of Eagles is a pretty terrible "finisher" (but sometimes you just need a big spell that might win you the game - although you really shouldn't with all the Chimeras) - none good, but all could make decks in certain situations.
I'd rather run another land than any of the other three. Devourer maybe, just maybe, if I had no 5s, very few good blockers/removal and a lot of fliers, I guess, but you've got an awful deck if he's making the cut (and when would you ever be in this situation without being white or black and having far better options like Guardians of Meletis, Rotted Hulk, the 2/4 white guy or even Yoked Ox?). I've never had to run any of them luckily, and never intend to.
Godhunter Octupus is easily the worst of them all. Why the hell would a 5/5 for 6 with no even absurdly rare upside need a drawback??? They should have made it unable to attack if they don't have an enchantment, but unblockable if they do.
I don't really see how a 2/6 for 5 can ever really be unplayable (not to say that every deck wants it, but there are some that are willing to run it as a 22nd/23rd card). Mill isn't really a thing unless you really get lucky, but it's still an enchantment for your other constellation cards. I think it's solidly bad.
Godhunter Octupus is easily the worst of them all. Why the hell would a 5/5 for 6 with no even absurdly rare upside need a drawback??? They should have made it unable to attack if they don't have an enchantment, but unblockable if they do.
Agree it is bad, but boy the proposed change would make it a bit absurd. A 5/5 that's unblockable like 60-70% of the time in this format?
Premium: Hubris, Sigiled Starfish, War-Wing Siren
Good: Cloaked Siren, Pin to the Earth
Average: Aerial Formation, Rise of Eagles, Font of Fortunes
Not a high pick: Godhunter Octopus, Thassa's Devourer
Shouldn't go in most decks: Triton Shorestalker, Countermand.
As others have said, evaluations change a lot depending on what you're drafting; Devourer can definitely have its place in grindier decks, Shorestalker can be a champ if you pick up Ordeals or snag a Mogis' Warhound, and Countermand does just fine in a deck with multiple Cloaked Sirens or if you're playing Thassa's Ire.
My opinion on Rise of Eagles has changed a bit; four power in the air, two bodies, double constellation trigger and a scry is pretty okay. Not for every top-end, but can be game over, too.
Why the hell would a 5/5 for 6 with no even absurdly rare upside need a drawback??? They should have made it unable to attack if they don't have an enchantment, but unblockable if they do.
They often attach some sort of drawback to bluebeef, even if, as in this case, it probably won't matter. Probably for balance... blue already has so very, very much.
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They often attach some sort of drawback to bluebeef, even if, as in this case, it probably won't matter. Probably for balance... blue already has so very, very much.
Wait, Leyline Phantom had a drawback? I thought it had vigilance...
It doesn't balance it, it makes it stone cold unplayable. I'm fine with blue drawbacks on big creatures as long as they're offset with some odd possibility of upside, like the thing that bounces enchantments to attack in BNG or Islandwalk as with Harbor Serpent. I'm not sure why it would be overpowered at all with the unblockability upside. Enchantments aren't any more common in Theros than artifacts were in Scars and blue got a 5/5 unblockable for 7 with no drawback in that format. The format was slower and more board-stally than Theros, so I'd reckon they're about the same power level even ignoring Godhunter's sometimes relevant downside (obviously enchantments are common, but I've seen plenty of lategame boards where one of us has no enchantments in play). I can't imagine he'd even be on the level of Hubris, Starfish or the Sirens.
I definitely think a 2/6 for 5 with a do-nothing ability and the almost completely irrelevant upside of maybe triggering constellation (maybe if it were green or black, this would be more relevant) is borderline unplayable. You'd almost certainly be better off leaving up Countermand with your 5 mana than playing it. You're going to hit a better card than him, almost for certain. If Countermand is unplayable (which it absolutely is - 3 mana counterspells are barely playable, a 4 mana one better have a relevant upside), I don't see how he isn't.
They often attach some sort of drawback to bluebeef, even if, as in this case, it probably won't matter. Probably for balance... blue already has so very, very much.
Wait, Leyline Phantom had a drawback? I thought it had vigilance...
Plus the milling champ with Sage's Row Denizen on the board... plus he's 5 mana for a 5/5 with a single colored mana in the casting cost - that's slightly ahead of the power level curve and into green territory, he definitely needed a downside. A 5/5 for 6 is a different story entirely.
We've established in the past that our use of language differs significantly, so rather than address your hyperbole literally, I will note that sometimes you need a big blue butt on the ground (and in a set full of scry, mill-two isn't always do-nothing... granted, it's not much, but it can have an effect) and sometimes you need a 5/5 finisher... also, I have seen a few board states without an opposing enchantment, but they have been very few and far between. Octopus is basically a 5/5 for 6; beef if you don't manage to pick up any better.
Wait, Leyline Phantom had a drawback? I thought it had vigilance...
Oh, how I loved casting Phantom post-combat to trigger Extort... Dimir was fun.
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Disagree all you want - the cards will never, ever enter a deck over an 18th land in any deck I draft. If I don't have 22 better cards, I did an absolutely horrendous job drafting - I'm not sure I've ever had a draft go that poorly. That means unplayable to me. Way to not argue with my "hyperbole"... after mentioning it and trying to discredit me by doing so. Always a pleasure, Hardened.
I've never been a position where I needed to maindeck cards like Godhunter Octopus, Counteremand, Thassa's Devourer (a really bad Pheres-Band Centaurs or Rotted Hulk, both of which are decent ground butts in decks that need to stall the ground but are still only marginally playable depending on configuration of other cards.. and Devourer is worse). Especially since J is pack 1, you should never be grabbing chaff that early. If there is only chaff available in pack 1, you are in the wrong color.
Without looking at the other posts first...
1. Sigiled Starfish
2. Pin to the Earth
3. War-Wing Siren - much better in my opponents' decks than in mine! In my decks it's usually just a Concordia Pegasus for 3 mana, which is not good.
4. Cloaked Siren
5. Aerial Formation - particularly in U/G. Guess it ranges from "unplayable" to "excellent" depending on what you're trying to do.
6. Font of Fortunes
7. Hubris - I've kind of hated this every time I've drafted it...
8. Rise of Eagles
9. Godhunter Octopus
10. Countermand
11. Triton Shorestalker
12. Thassa's Devourer
Of course this list heavily reflects the type of blue decks I draft. UB is where I end up most often, while UG has the highest winning percentage for me (>90%). I avoid white completely in JBT, so I'm not interested in UW, which helps explain why I don't care for War-Wing Siren at all. I've simply found that even when I draft the card, I usually don't end up playing it. Blue has zero common heroic enables in Journey, and wasn't the best-supported heroic color before; besides I don't like heroic in JBT (which of course goes hand in hand with avoiding white).
Font of Fortunes is a slightly worse Divination (although with Constellation it's sometimes a slightly better Divination). But I happen to think Divination is awesome in this format (and in general of course - but not in BTT). Thassa's Devourer is a mediocre card of course, but I love big butts in this format. Often people can bestow one guy on something, but there's not that much bestow to go much larger than that. A 2/6 is simply good for holding off the one larger creature while also keeping the rest of the 2/2s at bay. Of course your other color may have better cards for the same job (particularly if you're green; but not if you're red). I've also won about ten games by milling at this point. If you ever get two Devourers in play, it's a pretty good clock.
You really just need to embrace the rage. I keep a small colony of hamsters next to my computer and every time I lose a match to mana screw I throw one against the wall.
I'm a little surprised at the disdain for an unblockable one drop. One power isn't fabulous, but I've had Triton Shorestalker do lots of work in W/U heroic decks.
Also, I've successfully drafted a mill deck using Thassa's Devourer. Turns out having three of them and some Pin to the Earth mills a lot of cards real fast.
While I am aware that we are rating commons, I feel that Hour of Need deserves a mention when talking about reasons to draft blue!
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Disclaimer: As per the norm, I am aware some people will disagree with my opinion and I acknowledge there is a possibility that my opinion is wrong. The above post is simply my musings on what I view to be the most likely scenario given the information that is available and I am aware of at the time of typing! Peace.
My problem with Triton Shorestalker is that on its own it is bad, just doing 1 damage per turn and usually an even worse draw later in the game. If you have bestow creatures you can reliably cast on it then it goes up in value but there is no cheap bestow in blue and once it's turn 5 for blue bestow there are better things to put a bestow on than a 1/1. If you put a non-bestow enchantment on it then it's just begging to be two-for-oned with any of a billion small creature removal spells. If Triton Shorestalker had heroic +1/+1 counters or something, or if you had a few ordeals for turn two then it would be worth the risk running this but as it is I enjoy seeing a turn 1 Triton Shorestalker from my opponent or better yet seeing it on turn 8. That said, in a W/U heroic deck it can fit okay but then again it is much more difficult to create a good heroic deck in JBT than it was in TTT or BTT.
War-Wing
Hubris
Starfish
Cloaked Siren
Pin to the Earth
Everything else. Aerial is fine in UG but pretty mediocre everywhere else.
I don't really want to play any of these other cards. I also regularly cut Pin to the Earth. It's okay. Starfish is fine but it's not exciting. If you have some really great cards in your deck you are looking for it's probably a little bit better, but it's neither a strong tempo play except on turn two nor a source of card advantage... I mean, it's good, but I would never first pick it under any circumstances I don't think.
People act like starfish is good, because "the longer the game goes, the better it is," but this is not a late-game format by any stretch of the imagination.
Starfish is great in my view. It is not only good in the long game to get you the equivalent of extra card draws (if you scry away another worthless land or other dead draw), it is good to get out of mana screw and can hold off some damage from a quick attack. And in the mid-game it can help you out of a jam, scrying into an answer you might need or a card which fits what you are looking for at the moment. I think that you are seriously underrating the Starfish which in my view is one of the 2-3 best commons overall in JOU, although it does not fit well into a fully aggro deck so there is that to consider.
I agree with you about Aerial, in UG it can be good but usually mediocre otherwise. When I first read of the card I thought it would be a devastating blocking trick but it takes a narrow set of circumstances for that to occur, and if it does then it's usually just a one-for-one anyway; being able to kill two creatures with only this card seems to be extremely rare in my view. Its value is as a finisher (UG mostly) and as a minor combat trick / heroic enabler, which is not zero value but there are plenty of other cards I prefer.
1. Sigiled Starfish - One of the most rewarding cards limited has seen in a while.
2. Hubris - Surprised to see people ranking this one so low. Reports of its awkwardness have been greatly exaggerated.
3-4. Cloaked Siren/War-Wing Siren - I prefer Cloaked Siren, since my blue decks tend to play as many copies of Sigiled Starfish as I can get my hands on, which makes running a bunch of buffs much more awkward. But they're about the same to me.
5. Pin to the Earth - It's good, not great, especially given how relevant the body you leave behind tends to be (and all the enchantment removal running around).
6. Rise of Eagles - This card keeps rising through the ranks for me. I was tempted to put it 5th, but that would be getting a little too raptorous about it. It's basically the blue Pinnacle of Rage, but it has scry 1. (And you all, I trust, remember how much I loved Pinnacle of Rage.)
Playable, but not worth ranking relative to the others: Aerial Formation, Font of Fortunes - Formation tends to be fine in U/G and U/W, though it's nowhere near as good as it initially looked. Font is a fine 22nd or 23rd card in most non-aggressive blue decks.
Sideboard Specials: Thassa's Devourer, Godhunter Octopus - And really only against G/ or R/x decks that try and stomp you hard on the ground.
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People act like starfish is good, because "the longer the game goes, the better it is," but this is not a late-game format by any stretch of the imagination.
I should take a moment to address just how wrongheaded this is. Starfish is actually good BECAUSE it's an early drop, it's interactive, and it provides an incremental card-selection advantage. Saying that this isn't a "late-game format" as a reason why a card isn't as good as its being evaluated implies that a card is best when its drawn in the late-game, which doesn't really apply in this situation. Unlike most 2-drops, whose value falls steeply off of a cliff after about turn 4, the Starfish actually gains value with each turn that passes where its active, which is no small feat.
2. Hubris - Surprised to see people ranking this one so low. Reports of its awkwardness have been greatly exaggerated.
It boggles my mind that people consider Voyage's End first-pickable and Hubris underwhelming... is the feeling that Scry 1 is a better tempo move than bouncing a duder and its enchantments? Or that bouncing a Bestow creature is more of a setback than it is a great tempo swing?
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How would you rank the Theros blue commons? They are:
Also, it could be helpful to split them into categories, say "premium", "good", "average", "bad", "unplayable". But I'd still like to see the order within each category.
Good: Cloaked Siren, Hubris, Pin to the Earth
Average: Aerial Formation, Font of Fortunes
Bad: Thassa's Devourer, Rise of Eagles, Countermand, Godhunter Octopus
Unplayable: Triton Shorestalker
The tricky thing with rating Blue cards is that it can play both aggro and control, so the rating of each card changes dynamically as you build out a strategy.
Also the usual caveat to avoid a useless debate, that I recognize that Triton Shorestalker occasionally should go in some decks, I just consider it very far from a card I would want to play. The cards in the Bad category are closer mostly because they at least impact the board without requiring some sort of Aura as a combo.
War-Wing Siren is interesting because it is one of the top commons but it can really turn into dust if you end up drafting a deck which does not have targeting effects, especially auras. That's usually not a problem if you draft with that in mind but sometimes things don't work out. A Sigiled Starfish works well on its own in most decks and I do not even mind first picking it if there are no very good uncommons or rare.
#1 is Cloaked Siren. I like it best because it can surprise block, win games and chump, and 3 power is pretty good.
#2 Starfish, a great early-game engine, will save you from being flooded. He is a little slow though and a terrible top-deck.
#3 Pin to the Earth, stops a threat and lets you attack with impunity (e.g. inspired, spiteful returned, armory of iroas)
#4 War-Wing Siren, a solid heroic creature, but then again it's a heroic creature. Strong in heroic decks, meh everywhere else.
Green/Blue is probably the best deck in the format. It really wasn't all that popular when the format first came out. The deck I found myself up against most often in finals early on was Black/White, a deck that really isn't all that formidable unless it's a really strong build (which can be devastating). At Pro Tour Journey there was a lot of talk of Green/Blue being the strongest deck in the format, and this was reinforced by Frank Karsten's pick order list shortly thereafter. Honestly, at that point, I still wasn't entirely sold on the idea but I started facing Green/Blue decks more often. Then, a lot more often. And I was losing to them. So I started drafting it more and, I must say, I'm sold. The colours are deep enough that there is almost always a good Green/Blue deck in each pod, usually two.
Anyways, about Blue more specifically, there are five really good commons and I don't think the difference in power level between them is all that great. I'd probably rate them as follows:
1) Cloaked Siren -- Just good in every Blue deck. Lets you hold up bounce/Sudden Storm/removal to prevent things from getting too hairy on your opponent's side. I love me a Horizon Chimera and this card isn't that much worse.
2) Hubris -- Certainly worse than Voyage's End but bounce will always be good in this format. I thought it was worse than it was when I first started playing JBT and probably picked it lower than the other four cards on this list. Prevents aggro decks from getting too out of hand and can provide a nice tempo swing against other deck.
3) Sigiled Starfish -- Wasn't too high on this card when it was spoiled but after my first dozen or so drafts thought it was the second best common in the set (after Golden Hind). I've come down on it a little since then, and it probably has come down in actual value a little bit just because people are figuring out how to draft more cohesive, pro-active decks. Still never upset to have a copy in my deck and do pick it quite highly.
4) War-Wing Siren -- Clearly the best Blue common in the decks that really want him but sometimes I'll take a couple of War-Wings early and have them just fall flat. Pretty awesome card, first pickable, but often a lonely 1/3. It's possible I actually rank this above Starfish but like I said above, I think the power level discrepancy between the top commons is relatively negligible. P1P1 it's probably War-Wing, but for subsequent picks it depends on what I've already drafted. I want the Starfish less if I'm playing Blue/White or Green/Blue.
5) Pin to Earth -- I think I was higher than most on this card when the set first came out and probably still am. It's good against basically everything and you can play it in any deck. Playing it on an early creature and rebuying it with Hubris in the late game can be a life saver, too. That's a pretty narrow example, but I'll play multiple copies in any Blue deck.
The only commons that I'm actively avoiding in Journey are Countermand, Thassa's Devourerer, Godhunter Octopus and Triton Shorestalker. I don't think I've ever played any of those cards (okay, I played Devourer once as filler in an awful deck).
Sometimes it seems like Blue's depth in Journey is a little problematic because you can load up on good playables and still get cut hard in the all-important pack 2 (let's face it, decks with Retraction Helix and Sudden Storm are just better). Even pack 3 can be a crapshoot for the same reasons. Particularly a problem when drafting Blue/Green since Green is basically a brick in pack 2 and leans heavily on Theros. This is a very real issue, but I'm not going to let it dissuade me from trying to draft the strongest deck possible.
My favourite deck in the format is Blue/Red Control. I don't draft it often and, when I do, I don't win with it often but it sure is fun!
I don't play Blue/Black nearly as much in this format as I did in TTT. It's one of the two decks (along with White/Black) that I've never won a draft with. I still think it's a solid deck and have played against some great examples.
I hated Blue/White early in the format and had a lot of really terrible decks. I've had some success with it since then, mostly drafting around tempo/fliers as opposed to the aggressive Blue/White styles we saw in BTT and TTT.
I even played mono-Blue once! That went about as well as you'd imagine...
Good - Cloaked Siren
Average - Aerial Formation, Pin to the Earth
Bad - Triton Shorestalker, Font of Fortunes, Rise of Eagles
Unplayable - Countermand, Godhunter Octopus, Thassa's Devourer
Hubris is definitely top tier and, unlike the other two best cards (War-Wing and Starfish) is good in any archetype. I wouldn't want Starfish in UW agro, but it's crazy good in any other blue archetype. War-Wing wouldn't make the cut without a decent number of enablers, but is pretty much just Wingsteed Rider in the right decks. The next best is Cloaked Siren - it pretty much goes into any blue archetype, too. Either as a flash threat that UB control wants, a flying guy in a flying deck or a 3 power evasive guy in any aggressive deck. Aerial Formation is a decent trick and Pin to the Earth is passable removal if you're short on it and loaded with evasive guys. The other six cards are all cards I would be very unhappy to have in a deck and probably haven't ever been forced to use more than once, if at all. Shorestalker would obviously actually be quite good if you had a couple of Ordeals, Font is never anything better than a bad Divination, Rise of Eagles is a pretty terrible "finisher" (but sometimes you just need a big spell that might win you the game - although you really shouldn't with all the Chimeras) - none good, but all could make decks in certain situations.
I'd rather run another land than any of the other three. Devourer maybe, just maybe, if I had no 5s, very few good blockers/removal and a lot of fliers, I guess, but you've got an awful deck if he's making the cut (and when would you ever be in this situation without being white or black and having far better options like Guardians of Meletis, Rotted Hulk, the 2/4 white guy or even Yoked Ox?). I've never had to run any of them luckily, and never intend to.
Godhunter Octupus is easily the worst of them all. Why the hell would a 5/5 for 6 with no even absurdly rare upside need a drawback??? They should have made it unable to attack if they don't have an enchantment, but unblockable if they do.
Agree it is bad, but boy the proposed change would make it a bit absurd. A 5/5 that's unblockable like 60-70% of the time in this format?
Good: Cloaked Siren, Pin to the Earth
Average: Aerial Formation, Rise of Eagles, Font of Fortunes
Not a high pick: Godhunter Octopus, Thassa's Devourer
Shouldn't go in most decks: Triton Shorestalker, Countermand.
As others have said, evaluations change a lot depending on what you're drafting; Devourer can definitely have its place in grindier decks, Shorestalker can be a champ if you pick up Ordeals or snag a Mogis' Warhound, and Countermand does just fine in a deck with multiple Cloaked Sirens or if you're playing Thassa's Ire.
My opinion on Rise of Eagles has changed a bit; four power in the air, two bodies, double constellation trigger and a scry is pretty okay. Not for every top-end, but can be game over, too.
They often attach some sort of drawback to blue beef, even if, as in this case, it probably won't matter. Probably for balance... blue already has so very, very much.
My Decks:
EDH: Sygg, River Cutthroat , Road to Scion
Grimgrin, Corpseborn
Modern: Polytokes
IRL: Progenitus Polymorph , Goblins
Just a friendly reminder that I will drive this car off a bridge
Wait, Leyline Phantom had a drawback? I thought it had vigilance...
I definitely think a 2/6 for 5 with a do-nothing ability and the almost completely irrelevant upside of maybe triggering constellation (maybe if it were green or black, this would be more relevant) is borderline unplayable. You'd almost certainly be better off leaving up Countermand with your 5 mana than playing it. You're going to hit a better card than him, almost for certain. If Countermand is unplayable (which it absolutely is - 3 mana counterspells are barely playable, a 4 mana one better have a relevant upside), I don't see how he isn't.
Plus the milling champ with Sage's Row Denizen on the board... plus he's 5 mana for a 5/5 with a single colored mana in the casting cost - that's slightly ahead of the power level curve and into green territory, he definitely needed a downside. A 5/5 for 6 is a different story entirely.
Oh, how I loved casting Phantom post-combat to trigger Extort... Dimir was fun.
My Decks:
EDH: Sygg, River Cutthroat , Road to Scion
Grimgrin, Corpseborn
Modern: Polytokes
IRL: Progenitus Polymorph , Goblins
Just a friendly reminder that I will drive this car off a bridge
Without looking at the other posts first...
1. Sigiled Starfish
2. Pin to the Earth
3. War-Wing Siren - much better in my opponents' decks than in mine! In my decks it's usually just a Concordia Pegasus for 3 mana, which is not good.
4. Cloaked Siren
5. Aerial Formation - particularly in U/G. Guess it ranges from "unplayable" to "excellent" depending on what you're trying to do.
6. Font of Fortunes
7. Hubris - I've kind of hated this every time I've drafted it...
8. Rise of Eagles
9. Godhunter Octopus
10. Countermand
11. Triton Shorestalker
12. Thassa's Devourer
Premium
1) Sigiled Starfish
Good
2) Cloaked Siren
3) Pin to the Earth
4) Hubris
5) Font of Fortunes
Average
6) Thassa's Devourer
7) Rise of Eagles
8) War-Wing Siren
Bad
9) Countermand
10) Aerial Formation
Unplayable
11) Triton Shorestalker
12) Godhunter Octopus
Of course this list heavily reflects the type of blue decks I draft. UB is where I end up most often, while UG has the highest winning percentage for me (>90%). I avoid white completely in JBT, so I'm not interested in UW, which helps explain why I don't care for War-Wing Siren at all. I've simply found that even when I draft the card, I usually don't end up playing it. Blue has zero common heroic enables in Journey, and wasn't the best-supported heroic color before; besides I don't like heroic in JBT (which of course goes hand in hand with avoiding white).
Font of Fortunes is a slightly worse Divination (although with Constellation it's sometimes a slightly better Divination). But I happen to think Divination is awesome in this format (and in general of course - but not in BTT). Thassa's Devourer is a mediocre card of course, but I love big butts in this format. Often people can bestow one guy on something, but there's not that much bestow to go much larger than that. A 2/6 is simply good for holding off the one larger creature while also keeping the rest of the 2/2s at bay. Of course your other color may have better cards for the same job (particularly if you're green; but not if you're red). I've also won about ten games by milling at this point. If you ever get two Devourers in play, it's a pretty good clock.
Also, I've successfully drafted a mill deck using Thassa's Devourer. Turns out having three of them and some Pin to the Earth mills a lot of cards real fast.
R Norin the Wary: I've Got a Bad Feeling About This
UG Thrasios & Kydele: Knowledge is Power
RG Borborygmos Enraged: The Breaking of the World
BG The Gitrog Monster: All Glory to the Hypnotoad
WUR Zedruu the Greathearted: Endless Possibilities, One Outcome
WBG Karador, Ghost Chieftain: What's Dead May Never Die
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"In response, Hour of Need targeting all three of my creatures" is one of the most upsetting things that can be said in a game of Limited Magic.
War-Wing
Hubris
Starfish
Cloaked Siren
Pin to the Earth
Everything else. Aerial is fine in UG but pretty mediocre everywhere else.
I don't really want to play any of these other cards. I also regularly cut Pin to the Earth. It's okay. Starfish is fine but it's not exciting. If you have some really great cards in your deck you are looking for it's probably a little bit better, but it's neither a strong tempo play except on turn two nor a source of card advantage... I mean, it's good, but I would never first pick it under any circumstances I don't think.
People act like starfish is good, because "the longer the game goes, the better it is," but this is not a late-game format by any stretch of the imagination.
I agree with you about Aerial, in UG it can be good but usually mediocre otherwise. When I first read of the card I thought it would be a devastating blocking trick but it takes a narrow set of circumstances for that to occur, and if it does then it's usually just a one-for-one anyway; being able to kill two creatures with only this card seems to be extremely rare in my view. Its value is as a finisher (UG mostly) and as a minor combat trick / heroic enabler, which is not zero value but there are plenty of other cards I prefer.
2. Hubris - Surprised to see people ranking this one so low. Reports of its awkwardness have been greatly exaggerated.
3-4. Cloaked Siren/War-Wing Siren - I prefer Cloaked Siren, since my blue decks tend to play as many copies of Sigiled Starfish as I can get my hands on, which makes running a bunch of buffs much more awkward. But they're about the same to me.
5. Pin to the Earth - It's good, not great, especially given how relevant the body you leave behind tends to be (and all the enchantment removal running around).
6. Rise of Eagles - This card keeps rising through the ranks for me. I was tempted to put it 5th, but that would be getting a little too raptorous about it. It's basically the blue Pinnacle of Rage, but it has scry 1. (And you all, I trust, remember how much I loved Pinnacle of Rage.)
Playable, but not worth ranking relative to the others: Aerial Formation, Font of Fortunes - Formation tends to be fine in U/G and U/W, though it's nowhere near as good as it initially looked. Font is a fine 22nd or 23rd card in most non-aggressive blue decks.
Sideboard Specials: Thassa's Devourer, Godhunter Octopus - And really only against G/ or R/x decks that try and stomp you hard on the ground.
I should take a moment to address just how wrongheaded this is. Starfish is actually good BECAUSE it's an early drop, it's interactive, and it provides an incremental card-selection advantage. Saying that this isn't a "late-game format" as a reason why a card isn't as good as its being evaluated implies that a card is best when its drawn in the late-game, which doesn't really apply in this situation. Unlike most 2-drops, whose value falls steeply off of a cliff after about turn 4, the Starfish actually gains value with each turn that passes where its active, which is no small feat.
It boggles my mind that people consider Voyage's End first-pickable and Hubris underwhelming... is the feeling that Scry 1 is a better tempo move than bouncing a duder and its enchantments? Or that bouncing a Bestow creature is more of a setback than it is a great tempo swing?
My Decks:
EDH: Sygg, River Cutthroat , Road to Scion
Grimgrin, Corpseborn
Modern: Polytokes
IRL: Progenitus Polymorph , Goblins
Just a friendly reminder that I will drive this car off a bridge