I've been having a bit of a dilemma in terms of the P1P1 in some drafts I've done recently. The scenario goes like this:
The best card in the pack is, say, Ornitharch, but you happen to be passing some really good white cards, too. You're pretty sure that people to the left of you will probably pick up white, even if you take the Ornitharch. Say there's a card like Asphyxiate in the pack, too, and it's the only black card. Would you consider picking the arguably weaker card and avoiding white entirely, and cutting black instead?
What if you pick the Asphyxiate, and come to the conclusion that white is open around P1P4 or P1P5? Would you sacrifice picks in P2 to reap the rest of P1 and all of P3 by going back into white?
Pick the Ornitharch. You'll be possibly "cut" from white in one pack, but that isn't a consideration.
A great man once said, "Signalling is like farting." I don't remember the rest.
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You take the Ornitharch and fight for white. This is the correct strategy even if white is cut off because:
a. White is the best colour in both botg and Theros
b. Heroic decks are the best decks
c. White is the best heroic colour
d. If white is empty for you then it will be even scarcer for the people you are passing to, meaning that they will pass white back to you in pack 2
e. botg is weaker than Theros, so even if the first pack is a proverbial write-off, if you can get white in Theros it will more than make up for the slow start
Take the Ornitharch and run with it (of course, as with all first picks, don't be afraid to abandon it if white is getting cut in the first pack). It's possible you'll end up getting cut in white on pack 2 (but maybe not...it's you're sticking with white, you're not going to be passing a lot of great options downstream), but you can shore up your second color in pack 2 and enjoy more white in pack 3. Passing good cards for fear you'll get cut in pack 2 is a losing proposition.
You take the Ornitharch and fight for white. This is the correct strategy even if white is cut off because:
a. White is the best colour in both botg and Theros
b. Heroic decks are the best decks
c. White is the best heroic colour
d. If white is empty for you then it will be even scarcer for the people you are passing to, meaning that they will pass white back to you in pack 2
e. botg is weaker than Theros, so even if the first pack is a proverbial write-off, if you can get white in Theros it will more than make up for the slow start
Now, I was only using white and Ornitharch as an example of the kind of scenario I'm curious about. I more meant to describe a general case that could apply to any color combination and any draft format. (Very strong card, other strong cards in color, strong card in another color).
So, in regards to d., is the plan to try and cut white to get them to drop white in P2? Do you prioritize good white cards over great cards from other colors?
I'd take the Ornitharch and cut white hard in the following picks. By cutting white in P1P2, P1P3, etc. it makes the people to the left of you think white has dried up and might go into another color.
Also even if you don't cut it that much you still should get lots of white pack 1 and pack 3. If the people to the left of you are white you only lose out during Pack 2.
I don't like heavily cutting a color in the first 5 picks of pack 1 unless I open a must-play bomb (Elspeth in triple Theros, for example). Otherwise, I'd rather stay open and end up in the best color combination possible. The worst thing that can happen is you don't cut in pack one is that you get cut in pack 2 and have to focus on your secondary color in that pack: I'd much rather be in good colors and get cut a little in pack 2 then try to force a color that isn't open and get cut in both pack 1 and pack 3.
We've had many a conversation about this, and the rule of thumb is this: sending signals is not a thing. Reading signals is a thing you should do.
Two caveats: 1.) Of course there is something to sending signals, it's just that if you're amateur enough to be asking advice about drafting (not an insult; this includes me, and I'm pretty okay,) you will be much better off not even considering it for a single second. 2.) You can, however, take note of what you've passed. Using this information is still pretty advanced, and should never be a consideration p1p1... mostly when trying to decide on a second color later in pack 1.
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Sending signals also matters more in formats where pack 2 is very important. Too early to say for sure, but it seems quite likely the pack 2 will be the *least* important pack once we get to full theros block. For sure it will be less important than pack 3, which means that reading signals gets another leg up on sending them.
Thanks guys. I'm sorry you had to explain this all again.
Would there be any merit in making a Frequently Asked Questions sort of stickied thread that covers questions like these, plus commentary from different sides of the argument to give people a good idea of how the subforum feels? It could cover milling, hatedrafting, etc. too. Just an idea.
Take the best card, don't worry about it. I used to do this at my local drafts. I would first pick a Doom Blade, and pass an Air Elemental and say, okay I've put my guy to the left in blue so I'll just keep feedign him blue. Then I'd go to see how his deck looked during deck build, and he was Green White fatties "because he opened rare xyz" in pack 1.
Most people in a random draft won't abandon their first pick no matter what. They are drafting that color come hell or high water, and it doesn't really matter that you "shipped them the nut blue deck", or whatever else you wnat to complain about.
As others have posted, reading signals is important. Because while you're unlikely to get cooperative neighbors, you can very easily get cut, so you have to know when to bail into an open color.
Signaling is a concern P1P1 only if you have a virtual dead heat between a card in a color with no other solid playables and a card in a color with at least two other good cards. It has to be THIS close between the two for signaling to be a factor. If it's Ornitharch vs Asphyxiate, go 'Tharch. It's not nearly close enough to be worth taking the black spell for signaling purposes. The white card is in a better color and it's a better card.
If you see like a Kragma Butcher with Archetype of Aggression and Rise to the Challenge in the pack with Setessan Oathsworn but no other good green cards in the pack, and nothing better than those four, I'd say take the Oathsworn because it's a wash between the Butcher and the Oathsworn, and you're sending a better signal.
Later on in the pack, say after pick 5 or so, I think it's important to notice anything that seems like it's coming late. Don't jump ship per se; but do notice what you're getting. If you see something pick 7 or so that shouldn't be there, and there's nothing else in the pack that really matters, take the late card. It might set you up to move into another color later if you open a bomb rare of that color, let's say.
One thing to consider on top of everything is what kind of opponents you think you'll have. When I'm playing an 8-4 on MTGO (home to grinders, pros, and wannabes), I will definitely pay more to signals I'm sending than if I were playing a Swiss event. In 8-4, I've noticed you have a better (but still not great) chance of being "heard".
On the whole, I'd go with the aforementioned advice - worry far more about *reading* signals than sending them. The latter should be more of a bonus consideration if everything else is equal.
Maybe that wasn't the best example. I meant more like they were at parity within their respective colors. I think Oathsworn is about as desirable in a green deck as Butcher is in a red one even if the Butcher is a little better. If you think of it in terms of the texture of the finished deck you're trying to build, what I said makes more sense.
I also think you could take into consideration the relative strength of the colors. I think green is a superior to red in this format for the most part.
Maybe a better example would be Bile Blight vs Nyxborn Triton, Retraction Helix, Stratus Walk... Yeah, I think the Helix is the best card, but it's only like 0.03% better than the Blight
If a draft goes really well for you in a typical format, then it usually goes like this:
Pack 1: At first, you have no clue what other people are drafting, so you just take the best stuff you can find. Potentially as early as pick 3 or 4 you see something you could interpret as a signal, but you've learned discipline and don't. Keep taking good stuff, stay open. If some of your cards seem to form a coherent theme, you might bias your choices to favor that theme, but don't go all-in on anything. Halfway through the pack, maybe you have a sense of a color or two that doesn't seem to be flowing. Keep it in mind, but don't make any big commitments.
Pack 2: You probably have a good sense of at least one color you want to stick with. Keep an eye out for another color. This is the time to commit: you have a sense of what your downstream neighbor passed from pack 1, and you want to reinforce that, going the other way, as much as possible. Don't give him a reason to waffle or try to color switch. Try to cut your colors and don't get distracted by signals coming from your upstream neighbor, since you won't be getting any more cards from him once this pack is done.
Pack 3: Reap your rewards. If you've done your job well, the guy on your right will almost not be able to help passing you everything you want. Pack 3 should be by far your most beneficial pack.
People get really concerned about Pack 1 pick 1, and it's true that you can pick up some really powerful cards before anyone has had a chance to commit. But the real test of whether you've drafted successfully has very little to do with your P1p1 and a great deal to do with your P3p6.
P1P1 is a stumbling block for the novice drafter. The correct rule is, don't worry about what signal you are sending, just the one you are getting.
If you take a bomb rare, say Abhorrent Overlord in Triple Theros, the tendency is to force a heavy black deck. Suppose P1P2 nets you some mediocre cards, but you happily take a Baleful Eidolon over a Leafcrown Dryad because they are close in power level, but the Eidolon fits your first pick better. Understandable. But then pack 3 comes with a Nessian Asp, Voyaging Satyr, Nylea's Disciple, and the best black card is a Bloodtoll Harpy. Sure, the Harpy is playable and technically on color, but if you do anything but take the Asp, you've made a terrible mistake. For all you know, the guy to your right opened Keepsake Gorgon and the guy next to him opened Gray Merchant of Asphodel, both cards that force players into black that are uncommon and common... while you took a rare! If you fight for black, you're going to get one pack of potential goodies (unless the guy next to you opened Whip of Erebos D:), and even then if you do get first crack at 5 or so packs of black... if those packs are weak your deck will be an absolute mess.
P1P1 is also not simply about the cards you take, but also about what cards wheel. You get the best card in the pack, and you also get what the table thinks it the 9th best card in the pack. This often tells you a lot about where your draft should be headed, especially if you take the time to get a good sense of what shouldn't wheel from a pack. When it does, voila, a signal. So in your example, if you take the Ornitharch, and get cut from white, but you see that the Swordwise Centaur, the best green card in the pack, made its way around the table, you can pretty safely make green your base color, and see if Ornitharch works out. If he does because you had a strong pack 2, great, but maybe you were able to pair that nice green you picked up late with the 5th pick Retraction Helix and 7th pick Nyxborn Triton and build a solid UG tempo deck.
On the other hand, what if you wheel Oreskos Sunguide and Elite Skirmisher from P1? If you took Asphyxiate, you're probably crying. Remember, it's the signals you read, not the ones you send, that count.
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The best card in the pack is, say, Ornitharch, but you happen to be passing some really good white cards, too. You're pretty sure that people to the left of you will probably pick up white, even if you take the Ornitharch. Say there's a card like Asphyxiate in the pack, too, and it's the only black card. Would you consider picking the arguably weaker card and avoiding white entirely, and cutting black instead?
What if you pick the Asphyxiate, and come to the conclusion that white is open around P1P4 or P1P5? Would you sacrifice picks in P2 to reap the rest of P1 and all of P3 by going back into white?
Thanks!
A great man once said, "Signalling is like farting." I don't remember the rest.
My Decks:
EDH: Sygg, River Cutthroat , Road to Scion
Grimgrin, Corpseborn
Modern: Polytokes
IRL: Progenitus Polymorph , Goblins
Just a friendly reminder that I will drive this car off a bridge
a. White is the best colour in both botg and Theros
b. Heroic decks are the best decks
c. White is the best heroic colour
d. If white is empty for you then it will be even scarcer for the people you are passing to, meaning that they will pass white back to you in pack 2
e. botg is weaker than Theros, so even if the first pack is a proverbial write-off, if you can get white in Theros it will more than make up for the slow start
Now, I was only using white and Ornitharch as an example of the kind of scenario I'm curious about. I more meant to describe a general case that could apply to any color combination and any draft format. (Very strong card, other strong cards in color, strong card in another color).
So, in regards to d., is the plan to try and cut white to get them to drop white in P2? Do you prioritize good white cards over great cards from other colors?
Also even if you don't cut it that much you still should get lots of white pack 1 and pack 3. If the people to the left of you are white you only lose out during Pack 2.
Two caveats: 1.) Of course there is something to sending signals, it's just that if you're amateur enough to be asking advice about drafting (not an insult; this includes me, and I'm pretty okay,) you will be much better off not even considering it for a single second. 2.) You can, however, take note of what you've passed. Using this information is still pretty advanced, and should never be a consideration p1p1... mostly when trying to decide on a second color later in pack 1.
My Decks:
EDH: Sygg, River Cutthroat , Road to Scion
Grimgrin, Corpseborn
Modern: Polytokes
IRL: Progenitus Polymorph , Goblins
Just a friendly reminder that I will drive this car off a bridge
Would there be any merit in making a Frequently Asked Questions sort of stickied thread that covers questions like these, plus commentary from different sides of the argument to give people a good idea of how the subforum feels? It could cover milling, hatedrafting, etc. too. Just an idea.
Agreed.
Most people in a random draft won't abandon their first pick no matter what. They are drafting that color come hell or high water, and it doesn't really matter that you "shipped them the nut blue deck", or whatever else you wnat to complain about.
As others have posted, reading signals is important. Because while you're unlikely to get cooperative neighbors, you can very easily get cut, so you have to know when to bail into an open color.
If you see like a Kragma Butcher with Archetype of Aggression and Rise to the Challenge in the pack with Setessan Oathsworn but no other good green cards in the pack, and nothing better than those four, I'd say take the Oathsworn because it's a wash between the Butcher and the Oathsworn, and you're sending a better signal.
Later on in the pack, say after pick 5 or so, I think it's important to notice anything that seems like it's coming late. Don't jump ship per se; but do notice what you're getting. If you see something pick 7 or so that shouldn't be there, and there's nothing else in the pack that really matters, take the late card. It might set you up to move into another color later if you open a bomb rare of that color, let's say.
On the whole, I'd go with the aforementioned advice - worry far more about *reading* signals than sending them. The latter should be more of a bonus consideration if everything else is equal.
I also think you could take into consideration the relative strength of the colors. I think green is a superior to red in this format for the most part.
Maybe a better example would be Bile Blight vs Nyxborn Triton, Retraction Helix, Stratus Walk... Yeah, I think the Helix is the best card, but it's only like 0.03% better than the Blight
Pack 1: At first, you have no clue what other people are drafting, so you just take the best stuff you can find. Potentially as early as pick 3 or 4 you see something you could interpret as a signal, but you've learned discipline and don't. Keep taking good stuff, stay open. If some of your cards seem to form a coherent theme, you might bias your choices to favor that theme, but don't go all-in on anything. Halfway through the pack, maybe you have a sense of a color or two that doesn't seem to be flowing. Keep it in mind, but don't make any big commitments.
Pack 2: You probably have a good sense of at least one color you want to stick with. Keep an eye out for another color. This is the time to commit: you have a sense of what your downstream neighbor passed from pack 1, and you want to reinforce that, going the other way, as much as possible. Don't give him a reason to waffle or try to color switch. Try to cut your colors and don't get distracted by signals coming from your upstream neighbor, since you won't be getting any more cards from him once this pack is done.
Pack 3: Reap your rewards. If you've done your job well, the guy on your right will almost not be able to help passing you everything you want. Pack 3 should be by far your most beneficial pack.
People get really concerned about Pack 1 pick 1, and it's true that you can pick up some really powerful cards before anyone has had a chance to commit. But the real test of whether you've drafted successfully has very little to do with your P1p1 and a great deal to do with your P3p6.
If you take a bomb rare, say Abhorrent Overlord in Triple Theros, the tendency is to force a heavy black deck. Suppose P1P2 nets you some mediocre cards, but you happily take a Baleful Eidolon over a Leafcrown Dryad because they are close in power level, but the Eidolon fits your first pick better. Understandable. But then pack 3 comes with a Nessian Asp, Voyaging Satyr, Nylea's Disciple, and the best black card is a Bloodtoll Harpy. Sure, the Harpy is playable and technically on color, but if you do anything but take the Asp, you've made a terrible mistake. For all you know, the guy to your right opened Keepsake Gorgon and the guy next to him opened Gray Merchant of Asphodel, both cards that force players into black that are uncommon and common... while you took a rare! If you fight for black, you're going to get one pack of potential goodies (unless the guy next to you opened Whip of Erebos D:), and even then if you do get first crack at 5 or so packs of black... if those packs are weak your deck will be an absolute mess.
P1P1 is also not simply about the cards you take, but also about what cards wheel. You get the best card in the pack, and you also get what the table thinks it the 9th best card in the pack. This often tells you a lot about where your draft should be headed, especially if you take the time to get a good sense of what shouldn't wheel from a pack. When it does, voila, a signal. So in your example, if you take the Ornitharch, and get cut from white, but you see that the Swordwise Centaur, the best green card in the pack, made its way around the table, you can pretty safely make green your base color, and see if Ornitharch works out. If he does because you had a strong pack 2, great, but maybe you were able to pair that nice green you picked up late with the 5th pick Retraction Helix and 7th pick Nyxborn Triton and build a solid UG tempo deck.
On the other hand, what if you wheel Oreskos Sunguide and Elite Skirmisher from P1? If you took Asphyxiate, you're probably crying. Remember, it's the signals you read, not the ones you send, that count.
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