I know this horse has been beaten to death already, but I wanted to add my own input, after recently joining MTGO.
I've done 18 drafts on MTGO, a mixture of M14 new player drafts, M14 swiss, BTT swiss, and BTT 8-4s. I've mostly gone 2-1 in the swiss drafts I've tried, so going off of advice MTGS gave me, and the internet in general too, I thought I'd try out some 8-4s, and haven't made T2 once.
My sample size is small, but I wanted to get the discussion going before trying again. I don't agree with using match win percentages to determine which one to play; it feels like there's more to it than that. In swiss, you can achieve 2-1 several ways, and the most difficult opponent you face in a lot of these cases is someone who has gone 1-1. In 8-4s, however, you never face an opponent who has lost a game. If you're an okay (but not great) limited player like me, your % might be misleading; it completely ignores the fact that your win percentage could be comprised of games against poor opponents (I've never 3-0'd a swiss draft, for example). It also implies you're a better player than you actually are, and suggests you'd do just as well on average at an 8-4 than you do in swiss.
There's also the aside of being able to play more games in swiss, and the psychological effect of winning 2 packs every time versus winning 0 packs a lot of the time and winning 4-8 packs some of time. I felt emotionally drained after losing back to back 8-4s ("I just spent 20 tickets for nothing") when I always feel happy after a swiss, even if theoretically I lose more in the long run.
Thoughts?
EDIT: I've just realized there's a semi-similar thread by the self-proclaimed MTGO junkie. This might need to be merged?
8-4's are definitely harder than Swisses. For one, you do need to win both your first and second rounds to place, and every player you're playing against will be undefeated. For another, players with a higher skill level tend to gravitate towards these over the Swisses because of the higher potential payout. So your competition will be fiercer as well.
If you've only got a dozen and a half drafts under your belt, you're probably better off sticking to Swiss. Switch to 8-4 when you start 3-0ing Swisses consistently.
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I have the opposite emotional response. I hate Swiss because even when you 2-1 (particularly losing in the finals) or 3-0, you didn't break even unless you opened something that costs a couple of tickets. I can't stand playing an event that, even when played perfectly, causes you to lose money. It's silly. Even with the lower EV, I'd almost rather play 4-3-2-2's where there's at least a chance to come out ahead. That said, if you aren't doing well in 8-4s, it's because you're not yet experienced/good enough. The players are much better than in swiss and 4-3-2-2's on average. Then again, if you can afford it, it's probably better to practice in 8-4s. In my limited swiss/4-3-2-2 experience, the players are often so bad that drafting isn't at all like it is in 8-4s. People don't even remotely read signals, force all sorts of silly decks even when clearly cut and do other crazy things. You get a far more accurate representation of your drafting skills and learn much more about what signals, figuring out what might table, seeing what decks are being forced by better players, etc. in 8-4s.
8-4s are too much stress. I probably do Swiss 80% of the time and don't regret it. If you average a 2-1 finish then the cost of drafting is about $5.00 which you often make up for in cards you open, plus you always get to play 3 rounds.
I do the 8-4s haphazardly, when I'm online and see 7 people in the 8-4 queue and 0 in the Swiss queue and just say, ok what the heck, or when I'm blowing out my last packs of a set. But I don't enjoy them as much, because I'm always so stressed about losing. This is supposed to be for fun (for me) so Swiss is where it's at. I don't notice a huge difference in "skill" levels either. I win my share of both. It might technically be more profitable for me to do strictly 8-4s - pure EV says they are slightly better (though not a lot) - but again, stress.
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I just want to say that I agree with the OP that you should not use win percentage to determine which queue to play. This advice gets passed around frequently, and it's 100% flawed.
It's based on an EV chart that someone put together, plotting the number of packs you win in each queue vs. your win percentage. Someone looked at the chart and said "Oh hey the EV on 8-4 if higher than Swiss if your win rate is above X" and started circulating that info. To new players, it sounds legitimate enough and they believe it.
The problem of course is that your win rate is not a fixed value. It's all relative to competition. Just because you win 65% of Swiss games does not remotely mean you can compete in 8-4 because:
1) It's well established that the best players in the world choose 8-4, because it actually is the best EV for them. The competition is tougher.
2) If you calculated your Swiss win rate from all matches, you screwed up! You don't get to play losers bracket games in 8-4. So in calculating your Swiss win rate you need to sum all Round 1s, Round 2 when you were 1-0, and Round 3 when you were 2-0. Everything else is irrelevant in trying to determine your 8-4 win rate. (Which you can't do anyway because of #1 above.)
The impact of the losers bracket cannot be overstated. I've literally never lost a 0-2 match in Theros block, and probably only once or twice in my whole MTGO career. I am very rarely the worst player at the table. But I don't win "real" matches nearly enough to consider 8-4. I'm just a mediocre drafter. Those losers bracket games which I often win are not worth anything in the 8-4 world.
I really wish people would stop giving advice like "Move up to (whatever queue) as soon as your win rate exceeds X."
Don't do 8-4's until you have at least 100 MTGO drafts under your belt, and feel very comfortable with a given format. They can be very sharky, especially outside of evening hours EST, and there's usually only 1 or 2 inexperienced players per pod.
Like they say in Rounders, if you can't spot the fish at the table, you're it.
Play Swiss for:
a) learning a new format or drafting in general if you're relatively new to MTG
b) the experience - you're guaranteed 3 matches unless someone drops early which is significantly more fun/more worth your money than playing an 8-4 and getting bounced round 1
Play 8-4 for:
a) a higher competition level
b) good payouts (if you're good at drafting) - someone very good at drafting can actually make a lot of money from 8-4s. In comparison Swiss drafts will always put you down at least 2 tickets if we assume the cards you open are worth negligible values on average.
When would someone be "ready" to jump from Swiss into 8-4s? I don't think there's any easy metric but if you're 3-0ing and 2-1ing Swiss drafts with high regularity (and preferably not losing the first round in those 2-1 drafts) and looking for more of a challenge then that might be a good time to move up.
I play 8-4 when I want to experiment with niche strategies, because the odds of people interfering with my low-pick experiments are less than if I try it in Swiss. I play 8-4 when I have an excess number of packs and feel like gambling. I play 8-4 when I'm procrastinating on a project because if I lose then I won't feel as bad because I know I should be doing something else anyway, and the frustration of losing will drive me to be productive.
I generally play Swiss otherwise, just because dropping 14 dollars worth of product usually demands from me a certain guarantee of play time. Nothing feels worse to me than going 0-1 drop. The worst case scenario in Swiss (0-3 drop) at least lets you play your deck for a bit.
I suppose it says something about me that my gaming choices are based on planning how to minimize my lack of enjoyment of them...
I'm a pretty good player, ~1775 most of the time, but I am a 100% swiss and phantoms guy. I like having the sure 3 rounds and not having everything go to poop because I had to mull to 5 twice in a row. Far less tilting that way.
I see that 4-3-2-2 isn't even in consideration here with good reason. The EV is crap and it sounds too similar to a soccer formation.
Lots of good points already on this thread, but thought I'd add my $0.02.
First off all, I am the donkey with the article that suggests that when you hit 65% win rate you move up from playing Swiss. As pointed out in another thread, the straight up mathematical approach is flawed, but as Dolphan and others mention the sentiment remains correct: Once you start getting comfortable at Swiss to the point that you are winning consistently (i.e. 3-0 or 2-1 10 times in a row) why not try an 8-4 (or 4-3-2-2)? I've found 8-4 to be easier than I originally anticipated. It's worth a few goes just to get a feel for the different level of play.
(Note: I've changed my point of view pretty drastically in the past 2 weeks, and the following contradicts what I earlier said)
Now I see that which draft you choose is entirely dependent on your motivation. It's a bit over-simplified, but I've bucketed it as follows:
If you are trying to minimize your cost per draft: play 4-3-2-2. Unless you are really good. Then play 8-4. 4-3-2-2 allows you to break even which, as mentioned above is often impossible in Swiss.
If you are trying to maximize your fun: play Swiss. It really sucks crapping out in round 1 when all you want to do is play Magic.
If you are optimizing for time: play 8-4. I often play when I've got something scheduled within the next 2 hours. The draft tends to go faster in 8-4 with the more experienced drafters. And then once you've finished round 1, you only need to wait for one other game to finish. And then you can either split round 3, or just take the loss if your opponent refuses to split and you need to run; you still come out ahead. I have won (split) and 8-4 within 60 minutes multiple times.
If you are trying to improve your drafting: play 8-4. As mentioned above, this is where the best drafters are.
Again, over-simplified, so do what feels right for you and take a few shots at each format to find your sweet spot. And then switch things up if you hit a rut.
Just my thoughts, I'm sure some disagree, and that's why each of the queues fire at least once every 10 minutes =D
I'll also point out that I generally end up with better decks in 8-4's than in swiss. This may seem counteruitive, as bad players misevalute cards, but they also can't read signals. It's so much more common to get cut in a color you clearly signaled was being cut by swiss players than by 8-4 players.
To those who say 8-4s are the best option for improving drafting for every player, I don't know if I agree. I make a lot of assumptions and guesses here, so it would help if someone ironed out my logic.
If you're like me and go the Swiss route, you'll pay approx. $3.50 per draft (2 packs won per draft plus $1.50 in card value per draft), and get at least 1 'improvement match' - where an opponent is equal to or greater than you in skill - because you consistently lose at least once per draft. If you go to 8-4 route, your drafts will cost at best $9.50 per draft (assuming you make the finals once every five drafts, winning half the time, earning you an average of six packs when it costs fifteen packs to do five drafts plus $1.50 in card value per draft, saving you $1.50/draft) and you'll get approx 1.8 improvement matches per draft (matches played: 1/1/2/2/3 out of the five drafts).
0.286 improvement matches per dollar in Swiss at the low; this increases when you count close games where skill level is similar (1.5 improvement matches per draft = 0.429 improvement/dollar).
0.189 improvement matches per dollar in 8-4 at the low; making finals 2/5 drafts increases improvement matches per dollar to 0.275.
Sure, one could argue 8-4s have better opponents and the theoretical improvement would be greater in one, but unless you no longer get value/improvement from playing people in Swiss, I still feel like Swiss is better for improvement for newer players.
One kink to iron out in your logic is the assertion that improvements come during the matches. The draft itself is a huge part of the learning curve, and there it doesn't matter what round you lose in, what you learn during the draft is of importance (Note: I'm open to the argument that you can't learn about how well/poorly you drafted without playing the matches...).
I'll also point out that I generally end up with better decks in 8-4's than in swiss. This may seem counteruitive, as bad players misevalute cards, but they also can't read signals. It's so much more common to get cut in a color you clearly signaled was being cut by swiss players than by 8-4 players.
This can certainly be the case, but I think the fact that you're playing against weaker players should also offset your deck being weaker due to people not reading signals.
One kink to iron out in your logic is the assertion that improvements come during the matches. The draft itself is a huge part of the learning curve, and there it doesn't matter what round you lose in, what you learn during the draft is of importance (Note: I'm open to the argument that you can't learn about how well/poorly you drafted without playing the matches...).
PJ
How big of a difference in the draft itself is there between Swiss and 8-4? If 8-4 teaches things like how to interpret signals or how to cut a color, will those skills even be applicable at a local game store that isn't as competitive? I mean, I'm not going to a GP or PT any time soon...
Apart from subtle things like those, I can't really see how 8-4s would help me improve more than Swiss. Isn't the big part of doing the actual drafting learning how to make decisions based on the pack in front of you? How would that portion change between 8-4/Swiss? Wheeling cards?
You absolutely learn more playing Swiss than 8-4. You'll learn "solid A-B-C's magic" until you can grind up to about 1800+. After that point things start to feel pretty stale in Swiss.
You absolutely learn more playing Swiss than 8-4. You'll learn "solid A-B-C's magic" until you can grind up to about 1800+. After that point things start to feel pretty stale in Swiss.
Why would you not learn the ABCs of Magic while playing in 8-4s? You'll get punished more while learning, but you're obviously still learning.
You absolutely learn more playing Swiss than 8-4. You'll learn "solid A-B-C's magic" until you can grind up to about 1800+. After that point things start to feel pretty stale in Swiss.
Why would you not learn the ABCs of Magic while playing in 8-4s? You'll get punished more while learning, but you're obviously still learning.
Because feedback is key to learning, and high variance feedback (like you get in an 8-4) is not as easy to learn from. The only scenario where 8-4's are more instructive is for higher level players since the only lesson to learn from Swiss for them is "these players are average, I'm better than that."
(Not strictly true, you learn something from every game of Magic no matter how bad the opponent, but a large skill discrepancy makes it hard to advance).
The analogy I would give is this: imagine you wanted to learn a fighting game. I sit you down to play games (no other interaction, just playing) against the world's best player. What would you learn? Answer: that this game is stupid and not worth playing, and dang it I lost again. The world of Magic is much less extreme, but another variable comes up - the variance of the game. Once again, it is good to have more feedback (games) than less to overcome the natural variance of Magic.
I disagree strongly. You learn from playing correctly, regardless of the format. The fighting game analogy is bad, as you're not actually given a chance to play because of the pace. The difference between an inexperienced, yet not completely idiotic MTG player and the best pro alive isn't anywhere near extreme enough, at least in limited, where the game will ever feel at all unfair or be anywhere near unwinnable for the new player. It's a card game. It's not like the new player will go to counter the better player's creature and it won't work because the better player is so good. Not to mention that, as long as you're a competent human being, it's even more obvious when you make mistakes or play bad cards when up against a good player than a bad one. You can make a terrible play against a bad player without actually getting punished pretty easily (and therefore likely learn nothing), whereas you'll know how badly it hurt you against a good player.
When I get my butt kicked by the best fighting game player, I won't even know what went wrong. When I alpha and only leave back one blocker when he has lethal, meaning I lose to any removal, and lose to his removal spell, I know what I did wrong. A bad player may not see that any removal (or the removal he has) wins the game and may block with something he shouldn't, keeping you alive against a removal spell. You learn nothing.
I've mentioned this in another thread, but what i do is play Swiss until i 3-0 and then play 8-4s until i don't make the finals (and then go back to swiss). This lets me play 8-4 sometimes but stops me from tilting off for 3 first-round losses in a row.
I draft and play for fun and to me that means playing and winning games of Magic. I get more bang for my buck -- where "buck" refers to the cost of playing and also to the investment in time to be able to play -- if I play Swiss compared to 8-4 because in 8-4 I will usually play in fewer than 3 matches. With Swiss I play 3 matches (not including forfeits which are infrequent) so while possibly my EV is a bit less (or possibly not) I get more play.
On top of that, if I set aside 3 hours of my time as I have to do (I do not have unlimited free time) but then bust out after 1 round, that would be particularly emotionally unfun to me. I would not have time to begin another draft the same night so my entire Magic experience for the night would be one match loss, which would be very blehhh.
That said, I haven't yet tried an 8-4 so maybe I would feel different from what I think, but I doubt it.
And to counter that point, I like Swiss (especially at the beginning of a format) because losing in the first round just tells me that my deck wasn't a 3-0 quality deck. It doesn't tell me if it was an 0-3, 1-2, or 2-1 deck. Now, you can still get that information from 8-4s, but you have to play a lotmore of them (of course, you can also consult with trusted sources as well to get some of that information, but my brain has always had a hard time assimilating information that wasn't confirmed by experience - I preferred to spend four hours doing homework than four hours in lecture at university, for example).
I also think that the amount of time you have to draft online should play into it. During Triple Theros, I mostly drafted 8-4s (after drafting Swiss for the first few weeks of the format). I also had a lot of free time and drafted 4-5 times a week. This season I'm taking two university courses online while also working full time - I'm doing 1-2 drafts online per week - at most. I went two weeks without drafting online for the first time in over a year, in fact, due to midterms and projects. That's not enough for variance to really even out.
It's really obnoxious that 4-3-2-2 is such bad value, because its prize structure is much more "fair" for the natural variance present in Magic. If 4-3-2-2 was actually 5-3-2-2, I'd just live there. That's a prize structure that rewards the top player, while softening variance swings for players who don't grind multiple drafts a day. Super top-heavy prize structures have always seemed counter-intuitive to me; there's so much randomness in the system that a flatter prize structure is much more appropriate. Swiss is admittedly too flat (it's impossible to profit at all from it), but 8-4 is too top-heavy (IMO), and 4-3-2-2 is just insulting.
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It's not your job to win games of Magic where you're mana screwed.
It's your job win every game of Magic where you're not.
I have only been drafting for a couple months so this topic interests me, but in response to all of the people complaining that swiss isn't good because you can't profit from it, I'd like to say that I don't think thats the point. If you want to profit from mtgo the 8-4's are the only place to go for hardcore mtgo grinders. For me, paying $15 per draft is unacceptable. Therefore, if I can get good enough to win a couple packs each time and cash in perhaps a dollar rare or something I've reduced the cost to a more manageable figure. An average of 3.50 per draft seems awfully optimistic to me but if I could get to a point where over the course of ten swiss drafts I'm averaging a net loss of only 5-7 dollars I'd find that acceptable for 3 hours of magic. Making money or going infinite does not enter my thinking on the situation for a second. for those who grind 8-4's all day and can reliably win 1 out of every 4 drafts I'm sure it's not a big deal to lose in round 1, but for the majority of players I think the only realistic expectation is to bascially "see a movie" which is to say blow 7 or 8 bucks on 3 hours of fun, engaging entertainment.
Personally, I am more than capable at competing in 8-4 drafts and on more than one occasion I have won/split several in a row (which is an awesome feeling) but lately I have been sticking mainly with swiss drafts because I can get the best bang for my buck that way. 3-0 or 2-1 means that the draft cost me $2-$5 (less cards drafted) which isn't too bad.
I swapped over to mainly swiss because while winning a bunch of 8-4s is awesome, you *will* have runs where you just can't win a match to save your life, whether from bad luck, or just poor play, and at the moment I would prefer to just get the most from my money.
Personally I wish the 4-3-2-2 drafts were 5-3-2-2, the concept of a draft where I get something for winning round 1 appeals to me, but losing a pack of value before I have even picked my first card does not.
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I've done 18 drafts on MTGO, a mixture of M14 new player drafts, M14 swiss, BTT swiss, and BTT 8-4s. I've mostly gone 2-1 in the swiss drafts I've tried, so going off of advice MTGS gave me, and the internet in general too, I thought I'd try out some 8-4s, and haven't made T2 once.
My sample size is small, but I wanted to get the discussion going before trying again. I don't agree with using match win percentages to determine which one to play; it feels like there's more to it than that. In swiss, you can achieve 2-1 several ways, and the most difficult opponent you face in a lot of these cases is someone who has gone 1-1. In 8-4s, however, you never face an opponent who has lost a game. If you're an okay (but not great) limited player like me, your % might be misleading; it completely ignores the fact that your win percentage could be comprised of games against poor opponents (I've never 3-0'd a swiss draft, for example). It also implies you're a better player than you actually are, and suggests you'd do just as well on average at an 8-4 than you do in swiss.
There's also the aside of being able to play more games in swiss, and the psychological effect of winning 2 packs every time versus winning 0 packs a lot of the time and winning 4-8 packs some of time. I felt emotionally drained after losing back to back 8-4s ("I just spent 20 tickets for nothing") when I always feel happy after a swiss, even if theoretically I lose more in the long run.
Thoughts?
EDIT: I've just realized there's a semi-similar thread by the self-proclaimed MTGO junkie. This might need to be merged?
If you've only got a dozen and a half drafts under your belt, you're probably better off sticking to Swiss. Switch to 8-4 when you start 3-0ing Swisses consistently.
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I do the 8-4s haphazardly, when I'm online and see 7 people in the 8-4 queue and 0 in the Swiss queue and just say, ok what the heck, or when I'm blowing out my last packs of a set. But I don't enjoy them as much, because I'm always so stressed about losing. This is supposed to be for fun (for me) so Swiss is where it's at. I don't notice a huge difference in "skill" levels either. I win my share of both. It might technically be more profitable for me to do strictly 8-4s - pure EV says they are slightly better (though not a lot) - but again, stress.
It's based on an EV chart that someone put together, plotting the number of packs you win in each queue vs. your win percentage. Someone looked at the chart and said "Oh hey the EV on 8-4 if higher than Swiss if your win rate is above X" and started circulating that info. To new players, it sounds legitimate enough and they believe it.
The problem of course is that your win rate is not a fixed value. It's all relative to competition. Just because you win 65% of Swiss games does not remotely mean you can compete in 8-4 because:
1) It's well established that the best players in the world choose 8-4, because it actually is the best EV for them. The competition is tougher.
2) If you calculated your Swiss win rate from all matches, you screwed up! You don't get to play losers bracket games in 8-4. So in calculating your Swiss win rate you need to sum all Round 1s, Round 2 when you were 1-0, and Round 3 when you were 2-0. Everything else is irrelevant in trying to determine your 8-4 win rate. (Which you can't do anyway because of #1 above.)
The impact of the losers bracket cannot be overstated. I've literally never lost a 0-2 match in Theros block, and probably only once or twice in my whole MTGO career. I am very rarely the worst player at the table. But I don't win "real" matches nearly enough to consider 8-4. I'm just a mediocre drafter. Those losers bracket games which I often win are not worth anything in the 8-4 world.
I really wish people would stop giving advice like "Move up to (whatever queue) as soon as your win rate exceeds X."
Like they say in Rounders, if you can't spot the fish at the table, you're it.
Play Swiss for:
a) learning a new format or drafting in general if you're relatively new to MTG
b) the experience - you're guaranteed 3 matches unless someone drops early which is significantly more fun/more worth your money than playing an 8-4 and getting bounced round 1
Play 8-4 for:
a) a higher competition level
b) good payouts (if you're good at drafting) - someone very good at drafting can actually make a lot of money from 8-4s. In comparison Swiss drafts will always put you down at least 2 tickets if we assume the cards you open are worth negligible values on average.
When would someone be "ready" to jump from Swiss into 8-4s? I don't think there's any easy metric but if you're 3-0ing and 2-1ing Swiss drafts with high regularity (and preferably not losing the first round in those 2-1 drafts) and looking for more of a challenge then that might be a good time to move up.
I generally play Swiss otherwise, just because dropping 14 dollars worth of product usually demands from me a certain guarantee of play time. Nothing feels worse to me than going 0-1 drop. The worst case scenario in Swiss (0-3 drop) at least lets you play your deck for a bit.
I suppose it says something about me that my gaming choices are based on planning how to minimize my lack of enjoyment of them...
I see that 4-3-2-2 isn't even in consideration here with good reason. The EV is crap and it sounds too similar to a soccer formation.
First off all, I am the donkey with the article that suggests that when you hit 65% win rate you move up from playing Swiss. As pointed out in another thread, the straight up mathematical approach is flawed, but as Dolphan and others mention the sentiment remains correct: Once you start getting comfortable at Swiss to the point that you are winning consistently (i.e. 3-0 or 2-1 10 times in a row) why not try an 8-4 (or 4-3-2-2)? I've found 8-4 to be easier than I originally anticipated. It's worth a few goes just to get a feel for the different level of play.
(Note: I've changed my point of view pretty drastically in the past 2 weeks, and the following contradicts what I earlier said)
Now I see that which draft you choose is entirely dependent on your motivation. It's a bit over-simplified, but I've bucketed it as follows:
If you are trying to minimize your cost per draft: play 4-3-2-2. Unless you are really good. Then play 8-4. 4-3-2-2 allows you to break even which, as mentioned above is often impossible in Swiss.
If you are trying to maximize your fun: play Swiss. It really sucks crapping out in round 1 when all you want to do is play Magic.
If you are optimizing for time: play 8-4. I often play when I've got something scheduled within the next 2 hours. The draft tends to go faster in 8-4 with the more experienced drafters. And then once you've finished round 1, you only need to wait for one other game to finish. And then you can either split round 3, or just take the loss if your opponent refuses to split and you need to run; you still come out ahead. I have won (split) and 8-4 within 60 minutes multiple times.
If you are trying to improve your drafting: play 8-4. As mentioned above, this is where the best drafters are.
Again, over-simplified, so do what feels right for you and take a few shots at each format to find your sweet spot. And then switch things up if you hit a rut.
Just my thoughts, I'm sure some disagree, and that's why each of the queues fire at least once every 10 minutes =D
PJ
If you're like me and go the Swiss route, you'll pay approx. $3.50 per draft (2 packs won per draft plus $1.50 in card value per draft), and get at least 1 'improvement match' - where an opponent is equal to or greater than you in skill - because you consistently lose at least once per draft. If you go to 8-4 route, your drafts will cost at best $9.50 per draft (assuming you make the finals once every five drafts, winning half the time, earning you an average of six packs when it costs fifteen packs to do five drafts plus $1.50 in card value per draft, saving you $1.50/draft) and you'll get approx 1.8 improvement matches per draft (matches played: 1/1/2/2/3 out of the five drafts).
0.286 improvement matches per dollar in Swiss at the low; this increases when you count close games where skill level is similar (1.5 improvement matches per draft = 0.429 improvement/dollar).
0.189 improvement matches per dollar in 8-4 at the low; making finals 2/5 drafts increases improvement matches per dollar to 0.275.
Sure, one could argue 8-4s have better opponents and the theoretical improvement would be greater in one, but unless you no longer get value/improvement from playing people in Swiss, I still feel like Swiss is better for improvement for newer players.
PJ
This can certainly be the case, but I think the fact that you're playing against weaker players should also offset your deck being weaker due to people not reading signals.
How big of a difference in the draft itself is there between Swiss and 8-4? If 8-4 teaches things like how to interpret signals or how to cut a color, will those skills even be applicable at a local game store that isn't as competitive? I mean, I'm not going to a GP or PT any time soon...
Apart from subtle things like those, I can't really see how 8-4s would help me improve more than Swiss. Isn't the big part of doing the actual drafting learning how to make decisions based on the pack in front of you? How would that portion change between 8-4/Swiss? Wheeling cards?
Why would you not learn the ABCs of Magic while playing in 8-4s? You'll get punished more while learning, but you're obviously still learning.
Because feedback is key to learning, and high variance feedback (like you get in an 8-4) is not as easy to learn from. The only scenario where 8-4's are more instructive is for higher level players since the only lesson to learn from Swiss for them is "these players are average, I'm better than that."
(Not strictly true, you learn something from every game of Magic no matter how bad the opponent, but a large skill discrepancy makes it hard to advance).
The analogy I would give is this: imagine you wanted to learn a fighting game. I sit you down to play games (no other interaction, just playing) against the world's best player. What would you learn? Answer: that this game is stupid and not worth playing, and dang it I lost again. The world of Magic is much less extreme, but another variable comes up - the variance of the game. Once again, it is good to have more feedback (games) than less to overcome the natural variance of Magic.
When I get my butt kicked by the best fighting game player, I won't even know what went wrong. When I alpha and only leave back one blocker when he has lethal, meaning I lose to any removal, and lose to his removal spell, I know what I did wrong. A bad player may not see that any removal (or the removal he has) wins the game and may block with something he shouldn't, keeping you alive against a removal spell. You learn nothing.
On top of that, if I set aside 3 hours of my time as I have to do (I do not have unlimited free time) but then bust out after 1 round, that would be particularly emotionally unfun to me. I would not have time to begin another draft the same night so my entire Magic experience for the night would be one match loss, which would be very blehhh.
That said, I haven't yet tried an 8-4 so maybe I would feel different from what I think, but I doubt it.
I also think that the amount of time you have to draft online should play into it. During Triple Theros, I mostly drafted 8-4s (after drafting Swiss for the first few weeks of the format). I also had a lot of free time and drafted 4-5 times a week. This season I'm taking two university courses online while also working full time - I'm doing 1-2 drafts online per week - at most. I went two weeks without drafting online for the first time in over a year, in fact, due to midterms and projects. That's not enough for variance to really even out.
It's really obnoxious that 4-3-2-2 is such bad value, because its prize structure is much more "fair" for the natural variance present in Magic. If 4-3-2-2 was actually 5-3-2-2, I'd just live there. That's a prize structure that rewards the top player, while softening variance swings for players who don't grind multiple drafts a day. Super top-heavy prize structures have always seemed counter-intuitive to me; there's so much randomness in the system that a flatter prize structure is much more appropriate. Swiss is admittedly too flat (it's impossible to profit at all from it), but 8-4 is too top-heavy (IMO), and 4-3-2-2 is just insulting.
It's your job win every game of Magic where you're not.
You must not draft at all then.
I swapped over to mainly swiss because while winning a bunch of 8-4s is awesome, you *will* have runs where you just can't win a match to save your life, whether from bad luck, or just poor play, and at the moment I would prefer to just get the most from my money.
Personally I wish the 4-3-2-2 drafts were 5-3-2-2, the concept of a draft where I get something for winning round 1 appeals to me, but losing a pack of value before I have even picked my first card does not.