Transitioning to 8-4s

  • #27
    Quote from Hammer
    I call baloney on your so-called stats. I have played several 4-3-2-2s and the skill level is much, much, higher than Swiss. I don't see things like P2P10 Serra angels flying around in a 4322, something that just happened to me in a Swiss draft, albeit a release swiss draft.


    Unless he's fabricating his data, I would trust that over your anecdotal experience and a sample size of n=1 Serra Angel. Also note that averages mask outliers -- a couple of idiots screwing up one table is not necessarily representative of every table.

    I've never found the difficulty of Swiss vs. 4322 to be noticeably different.
  • #28
    Quote from Phyrre56
    Unless he's fabricating his data, I would trust that over your anecdotal experience and a sample size of n=1 Serra Angel.


    I was about to say the same thing. Statistics > gut feeling. I would be inclined to go either way on this myself, but with with statistical evidence provided, that's enough for me.


    Please don't PM me about staff/moderating business, I am not a part of the staff here anymore.
  • #29
    To sum up what most people I've agreed with said, and my own thoughts.

    1) Signalling in a swiss is more "what are the colors of the good cards in the pack"
    Whereas in an 84 you want more "What cards in the pack are key players in archetype X"

    To use an old example. In zendikar block I found the green deck wanted to draft vines of the vastwood pretty highly, so if you saw a 4th or 5th pick vines, assuming you were playing with people that know the archetypes, you could guess that it's open.

    As someone said, metagames in drafts can change too, if everyone is drafting slow durdley decks and you see a signal to go into an aggressive deck, do it. Just know the cards you're looking for.

    Also, remember the powerful cards you've passed (or just look at your draft cap). Knowing to play around a planar cleansing because you passed one, etc.

    2) Let other people see your drafting (either by posting draft caps, recording them, or streaming them)

    You might have to filter out the people that are trying to help but don't know they are bad, but it costs you nothing to solicit advice.

    3) You can use the common printrun to see how well you're reading signals

    I posted it on this forum, and it doesn't hurt Smile


    4) Win % is relative. Just because you have an 80% win rate in swiss doesn't mean you have an 80% win rate in 84's.

    If you want to keep an objective count of your match win/loss % keep a spreadsheet. It take 20 seconds to add a draft to it, and you will have objective data on your win rate.

    Make sure to include all data. Some people don't record that time they got mana screwed and lost, but every game counts. If you want to add notes to it you can do that though Smile

    Because win % are relative there can be a sweet spot where 4322 > 84 for you, but...

    5) This is my opinion, but, please don't play 4322. 11<12 so until they are 5322's vote with your wallet and boycott them.

    6) Variance is much higher in an 84. what does this mean? A bad streak in a swiss, and you loose 12 tickets in an hour, a bad streak in an 84 and you lose 36 tickets in an hour.

    If you don't have the bank roll to absorb back streaks (assuming it is just bad luck and not playskill they will be balanced out by good streaks in the long run), then unless you can continually dump money into magic, you will have to just stop playing until you can buy more tickets.



    Personally, I stick to swiss. I don't have the bankroll to absorb the variance of an 84, and I like to play 3 rounds of magic. If I had more money I'd probably do 84's eventually, but I don't want to get to a point where I lose 4 84's in a row and can't play magic for the rest of the month.
  • #30
    Quote from Hammer
    I call baloney on your so-called stats. I have played several 4-3-2-2s and the skill level is much, much, higher than Swiss. I don't see things like P2P10 Serra angels flying around in a 4322, something that just happened to me in a Swiss draft, albeit a release swiss draft.


    Nope, I'm not lying. I've no incentive to lie here. Numbers do lie sometimes, though...

    It sure does feel different, doesn't it?

    Here's 56 ratings from each draft queue, if seeing the numbers makes it seem more real.

    swiss

    1759
    1608
    1507
    1777
    1700
    1652
    1584
    1631
    1740
    1714
    1553
    1776
    1683
    1557
    1573
    1621
    1781
    1576
    1617
    1734
    1572
    1594
    1666
    1551
    1765
    1683
    1727
    1650
    1608
    1528
    1681
    1367
    1660
    1811
    1612
    1538
    1633
    1576
    1559
    1552
    1731
    1802
    1701
    1753
    1593
    1736
    1529
    1538
    1655
    1529
    1650
    1700
    1685
    1612
    1478
    1554
    4322

    1739
    1561
    1524
    1633
    1619
    1539
    1490
    1678
    1657
    1645
    1600
    1591
    1625
    1744
    1657
    1603
    1675
    1622
    1526
    1695
    1744
    1652
    1693
    1606
    1692
    1745
    1764
    1602
    1558
    1584
    1535
    1602
    1718
    1740
    1706
    1615
    1619
    1674
    1590
    1610
    1634
    1696
    1682
    1566
    1575
    1633
    1710
    1634
    1592
    1550
    1678
    1588
    1724
    1608
    1585
    1499
    84

    1811
    1712
    1582
    1762
    1717
    1685
    1753
    1725
    1752
    1761
    1899
    1740
    1630
    1691
    1809
    1735
    1832
    1789
    1668
    1772
    1778
    1700
    1791
    1569
    1692
    1651
    1744
    1776
    1677
    1627
    1604
    1768
    1719
    1711
    1542
    1777
    1633
    1782
    1740
    1753
    1817
    1718
    1647
    1823
    1772
    1614
    1614
    1714
    1711
    1794
    1710
    1796
    1678
    1817
    1641
    1795

    Something that could explain why drafting in a swiss queue feels looser than the 4322 is the standard deviation. Swiss skill has a higher variance/stdev than 4322, and all it takes is a couple <1600s in a draft to see late cards everywhere.

    I'm gonna take another sample soon now that M14 is live. I'd love to believe that the numbers are wrong, especially since according to these numbers, you have to be 1850 just to be +.5 tix EV for an 8-4 assuming 3tix money opened and pack value at 3.25. That's really depressing, to be that good and to earn so little.
  • #31
    You get to play an awesome game for free, even earn a little. I don't think its so bad.
  • #32
    Quote from el_pato

    I'm gonna take another sample soon now that M14 is live. I'd love to believe that the numbers are wrong, especially since according to these numbers, you have to be 1850 just to be +.5 tix EV for an 8-4 assuming 3tix money opened and pack value at 3.25. That's really depressing, to be that good and to earn so little.


    Quote from kezzerdrix83
    You get to play an awesome game for free, even earn a little. I don't think its so bad.


    I am going to assume this comment was in regard to the quote from el_pato above. If not, correct me.

    The comment from el_pato was, I believe, saying that it is sad that you have to be THAT high, because that is an incredibly high rating to have consistently.
  • #33
    Quote from Sene
    You have to play tighter (I'm more concentrated when I play 8-4s, I take notes, etc), and basically think through things more carefully.


    Sene, what types of notes are you generally taking when you play in 8-4s?
    Why play anything other than Limited?
  • #34
    Quote from Battle
    Sene, what types of notes are you generally taking when you play in 8-4s?


    I will write down my opponent's cards in a notebook as he plays them, which I will then consult frequently during the rest of the match.


    Please don't PM me about staff/moderating business, I am not a part of the staff here anymore.
  • #35
    Quote from Sene
    I will write down my opponent's cards in a notebook as he plays them, which I will then consult frequently during the rest of the match.


    All of the cards you see or only the tricks?
    Why play anything other than Limited?
  • #36
    Quote from Battle
    All of the cards you see or only the tricks?


    Here's a little secret: writing down all the cards is actually less work than writing down only some of them. The reason is that if you say "I'm only going to write down the important cards", you have to think about whether or not to write down every new card the opponent shows you. Instead of stopping and thinking about whether I might care about that card down the line, I write it down automatically - I don't have to think about it.

    So yeah, every card Kekeke


    Please don't PM me about staff/moderating business, I am not a part of the staff here anymore.
  • #37
    Quote from Sene
    Here's a little secret: writing down all the cards is actually less work than writing down only some of them. The reason is that if you say "I'm only going to write down the important cards", you have to think about whether or not to write down every new card the opponent shows you. Instead of stopping and thinking about whether I might care about that card down the line, I write it down automatically - I don't have to think about it.

    So yeah, every card Kekeke


    Great idea! I'll start doing this both online and in paper.
    Why play anything other than Limited?
  • #38
    If games go long, you can have most of your opponent's deck figured out by Game 3 which is a huge advantage. Beyond just tricks, it lets you focus on when to use your removal i.e. I should probably just kill that creature now because I know 20 of his 23 cards so the odds that he has and will draw some ridiculous bomb next turn are extremely low.

    Just remember at higher level tournaments, you have to start your notes from scratch each match. You cannot bring in notes from outside the match.
  • #39
    Quote from Battle
    Great idea! I'll start doing this both online and in paper.

    I only do it IRL in tournaments that matter. GPs and PTs, previously Nationals as well. For a few years now you could have been able to spot me at events by looking for the guy who uses both halves of his scorepad Wink

    Quote from Phyrre56
    If games go long, you can have most of your opponent's deck figured out by Game 3 which is a huge advantage. Beyond just tricks, it lets you focus on when to use your removal i.e. I should probably just kill that creature now because I know 20 of his 23 cards so the odds that he has and will draw some ridiculous bomb next turn are extremely low.

    You can also use it to figure out what the opponent's curve looks like, which could influence your play/draw decision, whether you keep, early trades, etc. Subtle things, but still things.


    Please don't PM me about staff/moderating business, I am not a part of the staff here anymore.
  • #40
    Quote from Sene
    I only do it IRL in tournaments that matter. GPs and PTs, previously Nationals as well. For a few years now you could have been able to spot me at events by looking for the guy who uses both halves of his scorepad Wink


    You can also use it to figure out what the opponent's curve looks like, which could influence your play/draw decision, whether you keep, early trades, etc. Subtle things, but still things.


    Seems like slow play...
  • #41
    Quote from carpeamentum
    I am going to assume this comment was in regard to the quote from el_pato above. If not, correct me.

    The comment from el_pato was, I believe, saying that it is sad that you have to be THAT high, because that is an incredibly high rating to have consistently.


    You need to be higher than that to go infinite. I was 1850 a year and a half ago for a six month period, and nowhere near infinite- probably around -1 pack per draft. I have a friend who is currently 2k and insufferably smug about it, hasn't dipped below 1880 or so for years, and has to supplement his Limited play with constructed queues to break even.

    Going infinite over the long term by playing only limited queues on MTGO is not really feasible in 2013 sadly. Don't kid yourself.
  • #42
    I would start by watching draft videos of great players, At the begining of each pick, pause the video and look at what you would pick then resume and see if you're right. And if you're wrong, compare the two cards, there might be something you're not seeing. This is a great tool, and has helped me in my limited game.
    Currently playing
    Dega midrange 1-0
  • #43
    Quote from toodumbtopost
    You need to be higher than that to go infinite. I was 1850 a year and a half ago for a six month period, and nowhere near infinite- probably around -1 pack per draft. I have a friend who is currently 2k and insufferably smug about it, hasn't dipped below 1880 or so for years, and has to supplement his Limited play with constructed queues to break even.

    Going infinite over the long term by playing only limited queues on MTGO is not really feasible in 2013 sadly. Don't kid yourself.


    You have a wrong approach. Going infinite does not include only winning. Going infinite includes raredrafting and lots of it. I used my creditcard in january 2009. My only constructed tournaments are about 2/3 of the constructed mocs that have been happening during that period and maybe a daily once every 6 months or a year if I have the deck from mocs. I rarely pass a card worth 1 tix and I find it quite stupid to do so, unless you have a complete disregard towards money.
  • #44
    Quote from jott
    Seems like slow play...


    I usually spend about half as much time on both decisionmaking & "physical play" (the time it takes for me to tap permanents, play spells, draw cards, etc) + I write down the cards in my opponent's turn.

    Haven't had an unintentional draw since mid-2008 (a control mirror in a Standard GP), so it should be fine Wink


    Please don't PM me about staff/moderating business, I am not a part of the staff here anymore.
  • #45
    Quote from Sene
    + I write down the cards in my opponent's turn.


    Well, that makes all the difference.
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