Maybe it would help make your point better if you had some actual data to back it up. An easy way to prove how busted Flash is would be to post some recent large Legacy tournament results where Flash monopolized the Top-8. Why don't you just do that?
Oh, that's right, because they don't exist.
Oh wait, that's right, because WotC doesn't give us many and just took a dump on the one they were giving us. I'd rather not have to waste a GP to prove or disprove Flash's strength.
The truth is, if you look at the numbers, Flash is not dominating the format. It's present, for sure, and nobody's denying it's a great deck. The problem is that there seems to be a disagreement regarding what warrants a ban.
Flash is stronger than some of the cards on the banned list. So by that, either Flash goes on or several cards come off, or both. If it swarms the GP, chances are it will be banned.
SpatulaOfTheAges and Cabal_Chan: "Flash is making top-8's and beating some really old decks that used to be good! Ban it!"
Everybody else: "Uh, so? Who says old decks should remain winners forever?"
When a new deck is beating what were considered good decks, and the only decks that can compete are sharing a common theme, there is a problem. I do not see how this is hard to comprehend.
I'm really looking forward to Monday, when the Columbus results come in. I have 2 questions I'd really, really love for both you and Cabal to answer before Monday:
1. How many Hulk Flash decks in the top-8 would you consider low enough to agree that Flash doesn't need to be banned? If there are only 4 Flash decks in the Top-8, would that be few enough to convince you that maybe the deck isn't as all-powerful as you thought, and can dodge a ban? 3? 2? Or are you claiming that if even 1 Hulk Flash deck makes top-8, it still needs to be banned?
I think WotC has an answer for this already. I don't remember what their specific formula was. If the Top 8 are all Flash, well geee, duuurrr :B If the Top 8 is a mix of Flash and other decks, that depends on the other decks. Do they share a common theme? Do they all share Hulk Flash hate? Was one a lucky deck that dodged Flash all day? Is the entire Top 8 Hulk Flash hate decks?
So I will ask you your own question: What do you think would constitute a ban? What would be the minimum? If Hulk and hate dominates the tournament, are you just going to say "The format had to change at some point. The deck really isn't overpowered, get over it" ?
2. What is your honest prediction on the number of Flash decks that make the top-8? Are you expecting 6 in the top-8? All 8?
If I could predict well, I would be in the stock market. As it is, I had the misfortune of my crystal ball crashing. When I get my flat screen crytal ball, I'll make sure I'm a back up OS in case Windows blue screens.
You do realize that such predictions are difficult to make, given that it will be a large tournament?
Flash hasn't been around long enough to have large tournament results.
While I think flash will be very strong at the gp, I don't think it will be a total massacre. There are two reason for this. First, flash becoming changed so recently, some players have not had a chance to get there asses in gear and get this deck together in time for gp. Secondly, flash doesn't get super uber retarded until after future sight becomes legal, which occurs after gp.
It's definitely more broken than at least 80% of the current B&R.
I have about 10 legacy decks built. As of flash, only one is remotely viable, and only because it gets a bunch of turn one kills.
Flash is stronger than some of the cards on the banned list. So by that, either Flash goes on or several cards come off, or both.
This may surprise you, but I actually agree with you. As much as I dislike unnecessary bans, I dislike inconsistency and hypocrisy even more. You're right. There are some cards on the list that are of equal or lesser power than Flash, and I would support Wizards carefully removing some of them, and seeing how the format adapts.
Conversely, if Flash does indeed turn out to be too powerful (which is to say, the format devolves into Hulk Flash decks and anti-Hulk Flash decks), then I would support a ban. I've always said this. I'm simply of the opinion that it's not too powerful. I could be wrong, and if the GP results demonstrate so, I'll readily admit it.
So I will ask you your own question: What do you think would constitute a ban?
I agree with Wizards' own criteria for when a ban is warranted:
1. When a card is too expensive and/or hard to find. I don't think Flash fits this criteria. 2. When a card is "un-fun." This is obviously debatable. Personally, I find it fun, but it is of course entirely a matter of opinion. Some people really dislike getting paired against Goblins. Some people despise discard, control, or land-destruction decks. This is a bit of a gray area, but at the moment, I don't think Flash is any more "un-fun" than several other accepted decks. 3. When the format devolves to consist entirely of either the problem deck, or decks specifically built to beat the problem deck. This is the real item here that threatens to necessitate a Flash ban. Unfortunately, demonstrating this point in the positive requires actual tournament data, which means those tournaments will be less enjoyable than they otherwise could have been. Again, this is a subjective criteria, but I believe there is a threshold beyond which few would deny it is met. If a decently-large Legacy tournament is comprised of 40% Hulk Flash decks, 40% Hulk Flash hate decks, and 20% "other," then I think few would argue that it's become a problem and needs to be banned.
I would like to hear you answer your own questions.
I suppose that's a fair request.
1. How many Hulk Flash decks in the top-8 would you consider low enough to agree that Flash doesn't need to be banned?
You raised an excellent point that we should not merely be counting Hulk Flash decks, but rather should include Hulk Flash hate decks too. I agree. I would say if half of the top-8 (that is, 4) consists of Hulk Flash or Hulk Flash hate decks, then that's too many. If half your top contenders are built around playing/beating 1 card, then that card is exercising undue influence on the format. So my answer is "3."
2. What is your honest prediction on the number of Flash decks that make the top-8?
This is a tough prediction. Based on Internet buzz, if I had to guess, I'd say roughly 20% - 25% of the field will be playing Hulk Flash. Most of those will be inexperienced or just plain bad players, and many will be sub-optimal builds (due to naively employing their own "secret tech," using bad/outdated decklists, or simply lacking the ideal cards). However, given that Hulk Flash is the most powerful combo deck, I think it will claim spots that otherwise would have gone to Belcher, TES, or even IggyPop. So I'd expect to see 2-3 Hulk Flash decks in the top-8.
This may surprise you, but I actually agree with you. As much as I dislike unnecessary bans, I dislike inconsistency and hypocrisy even more. You're right. There are some cards on the list that are of equal or lesser power than Flash, and I would support Wizards carefully removing some of them, and seeing how the format adapts.
Agreed. The main reason I oppose Flash is the limited number of Legacy tournaments. Yes, I know that there are ones that are not DCI sponsored, which increases that number substantially. Correct me if I'm wrong, but I am under the opinion that WotC only uses results from its tournaments. So if, say, there is not a strong Flash showing, players have to deal with Flash if it isn't banned in the next update, regardless if it dominates other tournaments.
Legacy doesn't have the option of wading through this like Standard did with Raffinty. We don't have multiple DCI sponsored tournaments each year to get really good results to make a well informed decision. If we had multiple ones each year, I would probably take your stance in saying: Let's see some good results.
Conversely, if Flash does indeed turn out to be too powerful (which is to say, the format devolves into Hulk Flash decks and anti-Hulk Flash decks), then I would support a ban. I've always said this. I'm simply of the opinion that it's not too powerful. I could be wrong, and if the GP results demonstrate so, I'll readily admit it.
I don't care who is right or who is wrong on the issue. All I care about is the health and continued viabilty of the format, as well as its growth. I acknowledge that there are different opinions on this, and that is good. That is why I do not say "if you support Hulk Flash, you don't support the format", because I see that logic applied enough in real life and it is, frankly, stupid.
I agree with Wizards' own criteria for when a ban is warranted:
1. When a card is too expensive and/or hard to find. I don't think Flash fits this criteria. 2. When a card is "un-fun." This is obviously debatable. Personally, I find it fun, but it is of course entirely a matter of opinion. Some people really dislike getting paired against Goblins. Some people despise discard, control, or land-destruction decks. This is a bit of a gray area, but at the moment, I don't think Flash is any more "un-fun" than several other accepted decks. 3. When the format devolves to consist entirely of either the problem deck, or decks specifically built to beat the problem deck. This is the real item here that threatens to necessitate a Flash ban. Unfortunately, demonstrating this point in the positive requires actual tournament data, which means those tournaments will be less enjoyable than they otherwise could have been. Again, this is a subjective criteria, but I believe there is a threshold beyond which few would deny it is met. If a decently-large Legacy tournament is comprised of 40% Hulk Flash decks, 40% Hulk Flash hate decks, and 20% "other," then I think few would argue that it's become a problem and needs to be banned.
1. How many Hulk Flash decks in the top-8 would you consider low enough to agree that Flash doesn't need to be banned?
You raised an excellent point that we should not merely be counting Hulk Flash decks, but rather should include Hulk Flash hate decks too. I agree. I would say if half of the top-8 (that is, 4) consists of Hulk Flash or Hulk Flash hate decks, then that's too many. If half your top contenders are built around playing/beating 1 card, then that card is exercising undue influence on the format. So my answer is "3."
Sounds good. Of course, we all know that WotC will do what it wants to do based off the results regardless.
This is a tough prediction. Based on Internet buzz, if I had to guess, I'd say roughly 20% - 25% of the field will be playing Hulk Flash. Most of those will be inexperienced or just plain bad players, and many will be sub-optimal builds (due to naively employing their own "secret tech," using bad/outdated decklists, or simply lacking the ideal cards). However, given that Hulk Flash is the most powerful combo deck, I think it will claim spots that otherwise would have gone to Belcher, TES, or even IggyPop. So I'd expect to see 2-3 Hulk Flash decks in the top-8.
Right. One of my concerns is that Hulk Flash will not make a big showing, and thus "slip under the radar." As time goes by, the deck will improve, and it may show up in more and more non-DCI sanctioned tournaments. However, the DCI will probably not accept those results, and so Legacy will be plauged by Hulk Flash for a long time, as the span between DCI sponsored Legacy tournaments is a long one.
Of course, this is a hypothetical "dooms day" scenario, but I am by nature a pessimist on many things. Though, I would love this scenario to be proven false, because it means that Legacy remains healthy.
Correct me if I'm wrong, but I am under the opinion that WotC only uses results from its [sanctioned] tournaments. So if, say, there is not a strong Flash showing, players have to deal with Flash if it isn't banned in the next update, regardless if it dominates other tournaments.
One of my concerns is that Hulk Flash will not make a big showing [at GP], and thus "slip under the radar." As time goes by, the deck will improve, and it may show up in more and more non-DCI sanctioned tournaments. However, the DCI will probably not accept those results, and so Legacy will be plauged by Hulk Flash for a long time, as the span between DCI sponsored Legacy tournaments is a long one.
Ah, I think we're getting to the root cause of your opposition. I can't say conclusively, but I'm almost positive that the DCI takes all tournament results into account, not just their own. I think Vintage demonstrates precedence for this. There are very, very few major sanctioned Vintage events (I believe the only one is Gencon, once a year). However, the Vintage restricted list is updated any time a change becomes necessary. The folks at Wizards don't say much in the forums, but they've said that they do indeed read what goes on, and are keenly aware of the state of the metagames of the various formats. I'm confident your fears in this regard are unfounded. When deciding the June 1st bannings, they'll not only look at the Columbus results, but all recent Legacy results. In fact, I'm confident they'll even take into consideration the post-Future Sight versions of Hulk Flash, since they won't have another opportunity to adjust the banned list until September.
Ah, I think we're getting to the root cause of your opposition. I can't say conclusively, but I'm almost positive that the DCI takes all tournament results into account, not just their own. I think Vintage demonstrates precedence for this. There are very, very few major sanctioned Vintage events (I believe the only one is Gencon, once a year). However, the Vintage restricted list is updated any time a change becomes necessary. The folks at Wizards don't say much in the forums, but they've said that they do indeed read what goes on, and are keenly aware of the state of the metagames of the various formats. I'm confident your fears in this regard are unfounded. When deciding the June 1st bannings, they'll not only look at the Columbus results, but all recent Legacy results. In fact, I'm confident they'll even take into consideration the post-Future Sight versions of Hulk Flash, since they won't have another opportunity to adjust the banned list until September.
Well, the other tournaments are small, so they are subject to flukes that would not affect larger tournaments. I would give a more in depth explanation, but it's been close to a year since I took a statistics class, and my next one isn't a general one, so I don't know how applicable it would be to this.
I would love for my fears to be unfounded. I hope they are. I'll just have to wait and see.
You do realize it's not about top-8s it's how it degenerates the format.
It's like ravager. Not all top 8s were filled with ravager, they were a mix between ravager.dec I-hate-ravager.dec, and randomscrub-thatbeatsravager.dec
The format had warped into a kill or be killed Because of ONE deck.
Now if Spatula was complaining because UG madness or The Rock and Big Blue were losing to flash I would agree with your attempted mockery of him. However he is talking about those "really old decks" that came into the limelight about a year ago, just a little more. That SHOULD hold the prescense in this format. I don't see how it's even feasbile for goblins to win this matchup other than God hand and a REALLY dumb opponent who keeps a 7 land hand/mulligans to a 5 land hand.
Goblins didn't take over 30% of the Top 8s for GPTs
true goblins like wins 30% of the big legacy events. Even worse...
I would have thought it obvious that Flash is very very good just by looking at the GPT results. I am not saying whether it should be banned or not (i hope it does)
Look at it this way, It occupied 30% of the top8, when the deck is relatively new. It's lists are unrefined, some people havnt got around to obtain their copies of flash, some people will think wizard will ban it after GP so there is no point buying them, some ppl stopped playing legacy for a month in hope that flash would disappear.
Despite those possible reasons that flash's presence to be lower than what is predicted, the unrefined decklists (i think i read on some report there is only like 15 cards thats all the same between all the flash lists) its beating out Decks which has been around for years(or months in some cases), every card slot examined and tested. If thats not the testament of the Deck's power, i dnt know what is. I mean even affinity, in its early days, were unrefined. (the mantle/vial debate) or psychatog (ppl ran finkle in what?)
A couple of other things to take into consideration:
How fast its goldfish is, It has a very consistent turn 1~2 goldfish (if u choose to go that route) which is not unlike belcher but belcher is much much easier to disrupt plus it cant afford to run disruption of it own where flash can afford to.
The wide difference between the Flash lists, that makes the deck extremely difficult to stop, say i have extirpate, Engineerd plague and leyline, 2 of my defence immediately doesnt matter the moment i play a flash player using the disciple kill. Leyline can actually be removed as a lot of flash lists has started to run some main deck bounce, and the ability to find it very quickly (LDV, Scroll or MTutor)
Post FS, the deck will be absolutely insane, it requires 2 cards (as oppose to multiple cards required for other combos) it costs 2 mana (belcher needs 7 to combo off turn 1, flash needs 2, one of these is easier than the other) It can run 8 free counters, Yes other decks can also run pact of negation, but honestly whats the difference to lose in ur next upkeep??? yes spellsnare/stifle/force/daze all work against flash, but notice they are all blue, esp FoW which requires u to have a heavy commitment to blue to be able to reliably use it. Duress and therapy works some what, but flash does run some very sophisticatd cards which allow it to get all the combo piece back quickly. Also flash does have force etc to protect its hand. And remember, again this is useful against current generation of flash decks, who knows whether they will be useful against the next.
The reason why ppl complains how bad flash is for the format is easy to understand and justified i feel. First it makes all other combo decks obsolete. By forcing every deck to run massive amount of combo hate and by being faster, more resilient and just generally better than other combos we have seen in the format.
It make non-blue based aggro decks unplayable, in fact, it makes non-blue decks unplayable. My deck of choice before the while flash thing started was red death, and when this flash thing started i thought, meh, red death is MADE to beat combo decks rite? after losing to my friend's proxied after copy paste deck list from the some random site like 15-3, i had other ideas. Yes i occasionally gets the ritual duress hymn hand that wins, the flash was stronger than other combo decks. It doesnt even have the ETW storm combo's problem( and advantage too), where they partially go off with ETW and kill u. When flash goes off, it just wins.
Sure goblins can fight it with....SB pyro+REB+leyline which it cant cast.
But it mite still lose, why? because by putting in those hate cards it effects the speed of its own goldfish and mite not have a fast enough clock present so that flash does recover.
Is flash format dominating? potentially and very likely, is it worth the ban? possibly, ppl did mention the the previous DTB goblins had similar effect too, the thing was cards thats good against gobo (and the famous turn 1 lackey) like lightning bolt, swords, etc was good against other decks that ran creatures as well. So the effect is going to be more pronounced for flash.
I think some other questions to consider are:
How many Leyline are there going to be in the SB at the GP.
How many copies of FoW/stifle is there going to be in the t8?
how many non-blue deck are going to be in the t8?
as far as i know, flash beats pretty much every midrange deck in the format (i could be wrong, u could have tuned ur angel stax/rock/survival to a 70-30 against flash, then maybe u will still lose to flash at the end of the day)
I think it should be banned, I could change my mind, but wizard probably doesnt care cuz they dnt make money directly off legacy.
(u know something is wrong if the creator of every major combo deck in the format is abandoning their own decks and playing flash instead)
I just hope we get to see GP Flash, (much like PT Rebel, which helped banned Lin Sivvi in block)
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So, a deck top-8-ing 3 times is where we've set the bar for banning now? How has Goblins survived so long?
SpatulaOfTheAges pretty much expresses what I wanted to say in a much concise form. No deck is so so broken that it is unbeatable, you just gotta put so much hate into one deck that would be able to handle it. What we've been seeing a lot in the GPT is that the majority of those that aren't Flash consist of: Blue, or Black, or with a turn 1 kill. It really isn't comparable to Goblin's 'dominance' of the format, Boop.
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GPT Rockville is a good look at the future. 5 Hulk in the t8, 32 Force of Wills.
I don't think you understand what the word "monopolized" means.
Quote from SpatulaOfTheAges »
Flash invalidates all decks not running blue.
Absolutely False.
Black, Red, and White all have tools to stop this combo. Sorry, green.
Black: Leyline of the Void completely stops all versions of this combo cold. A timely Diabolic Edict/Terror stops the Kiki build. Planar Void stops the Kiki build.
Red: REB and Pyroblast both stop Flash, and they can't get much cheaper than one red mana.
White: Lifegain stops the Disciple build. Children of Korlis. Orim's Chant. A timely Swords to Plowshares.
Even artifacts can stop it. Drop an EE for 0. When 1 billion Karmic Guide copies come scurrying over, pop it. There are tons more answers that have already been suggested elsewhere, and I won't re-hash here.
This is not an unbeatable deck. It folds to any disruption it doesn't have a counterspell for.
While it's true blue offers the easiest answers, that's simply a reflection of the reality that blue is the most powerful color in the game. Any format that's going to allow cards all the way back to the beginning of Magic is going to have to recognize and accept this fact.
Quote from SpatulaOfTheAges »
Let me repost a response I wrote to a similiar question from diopter; if NO Hulk decks t8, would you still want it banned?
Absolutely. In a heartbeat.
I don't really know how to respond to that. That comment appears so incomprehensibly illogical to me that I wouldn't even know where to start to rebut it. If a deck shows up in droves at a major event and fails to top 8, I literally cannot fathom how any sensible being could advocate banning the engine card of the deck.
Quote from SpatulaOfTheAges »
There's an off chance one deck might make it by feeding off the aggro-control decks; Life from the Loam, Survival, or Goblins.
It will not make t4.
So if the same decks make top 4 that always make top 4, why are we banning the ones that scrubbed out in the top 8 and not the usual suspects that win the whole thing?
Wow, a lot of discussion while i was away. THanks for holding up our side, kombat, I totally agree with you.
lets see then..
1. How many Hulk Flash decks in the top-8 would you consider low enough to agree that Flash doesn't need to be banned?
3 or less. As an added note, if more than hal fof the well performing field is playing decks specificlly built to beat hulk flash (as opposed to being a good deck that also oruns hate), I would concede that the combo needed to go.
2. What is your honest prediction on the number of Flash decks that make the top-8?
Two. MAYBE three, but once the ball gets rolling on how to respond to the deck, the number will go down.
As an added point, lets look at goblins. That deck also has no options against combo like solidarity, so it has resorted to running 4 REB and 3-4 pyrostatic pillars in the board, alongside cabal therapies (in some builds). Like goblins, any deck without blue or black has NO game against solidarity without huge amounts of hate... does that mean that solidarity is severely overpowered? Of course not - the metagame adapted. As it will again.
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-THIS IS JUST A LIST- Stax, Sapphire Tri, Set Abominae, {mikeyG}, nan, glurman, JollyTheOctopuss, Sakura, Mad Mat, Johnation, Cell, Goatchunx, VerzenChaos, DarkPhoenix, EvilDuck, echelon_house
The fact that you are willing to admit Hulk/Flash will probably have 3 Top-8 spots already proves how powerful this card and deck is, BEFORE Summoner's Pact.
When the pact is legal - this deck might as well be Affinity in Standard - it will be the deck to beat, it will be the deck that wins, and wins again.
No deck is unbeatable - no deck ever was - that never stopped cards from being banned or restricted, or erata'd. You mention all these sideboard possibilities that are IF's. Pact of Negation says no to all your disruption for free. So does FoW.
The card will not survive the next cycle of changes, accept it.
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Are you people so oblivious to what everyone else is saying? No one is stating that the top eight will consist of 99% Hulk Flash. It is an amazing deck that can get hated out. What we are stating is that it forms an incredibly unhealthy format because it forces the decks into a very tight deck construction of:
1. Running Blue
2. Running Black
3. Has turn 1 kill.
There will always be an exception to that in the top8, much like how a hulksmash deck manage to win the D2D through, the most part, avoid goblins. But look at the link Spatula and I have provides (albeit that they are the same link) and see that the majority of those that have top8-ed since the appearance of Hulk flash has been either Hulk flash or those deck that fits the description that I listed on top.
Continuing to fail to believe that maybe some of us recognize that Hulk flash isn't the omgerz-world-is-falling-apart will get this argument no where.
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When dealing with Flash I don't think "running blue" is an adequate answer. A correctly timed counter against a tendrils deck will have them fall on their face, usually winning you the game. It will take the a long time to recover, if they do at all. A correctly timed fow against flash saves you for one turn. Flash has no recovery time other than the time it takes to find another flash.
Flash is totally twisting our minds and smashing our dreams. Legacy used to be awesome. It basically had infinite deck building possibilities. Now it has two possibilities, flash, and flashbeater.dec.
I saw on one forum the following conversation
somekid: Yay! The trifecta of thresh gobs solidarity has fallen!
someguy: Yeah! Now it's a onefecta! It's so much better!
I can't tell what your umm means. So in case you didn't understand why 32 FoW was relevant, it means that every single deck that placed in the top 8 played Force of Will as a 4-of.
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I can't tell what your umm means. So in case you didn't understand why 32 FoW was relevant, it means that every single deck that placed in the top 8 played Force of Will as a 4-of.
You know, some drink wine without water, but you, you drink water without wine.
If I didn't understand what 32 forces meant I wouldn't have posted.
I am just pointing out how twisted this "format" has gotten. The umm was for the guys who think everything is fine.
removal does almost nothing against both versions, the karmic versions runs bodygaurd so u really need to have 3 STP like removal to have a chance (counting a counter from their hand)
how the hell does Orim;s chant stop flash again?? Do u even know how flash works?? (cast flash, repsonse chant....................both player sits there............then u die)
REB/Pyro, while this have limited applications, they cant be ur only defence, lets say u have 8 blast Post board, since u lost game 1, u r starting game 2. U either Lose on ur upkeep cuz they turn 0 kill u (soemone on SCG work out this can occur 12% of the time post FS) or u get to make a mountain pass. Into their potential 4FoW, 4Pact, 4Daze, maybe unmask to nuke ur hand. Regardless, the odds doesn't look good for u, what if they dnt combo turn 1 and past the turn, instead of casting lackey turn 1 they did nothing to keep counter mana open, thereby giving the flash players more turns to assemble discard/counter/combo pieces.
U mentioned lifegain as good answer to the disciple version and EE is good against the karmic guide version. So what are u running in ur sideboard?? If u run 1 hate and they play the other version (How dare the opponents play a version of flash they u werent prepared for!!!) then u lose, if u dnt draw hate u lose, if that have 1 counterspell u lose (unless u draw multiple hate cards)
The fact is, flah turns this format into "play 4 FoW, win turn 1 or have no chance"
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Even artifacts can stop it. Drop an EE for 0. When 1 billion Karmic Guide copies come scurrying over, pop it.
Actually no. Not many people remember that token creature copies are copies in every sense of the word.
i.e. name, colour, type, p/t, mana cost, expansion symbol.
I'll track down the part of the Comp Rules where it says that if necessary...
Edit: here we go.
503.2 - When copying an object, the copy acquires the copiable values of the original object's characteristics (name, mana cost, color, type, supertype, subtype, expansion symbol, rules text, power, and toughness) and, for an object on the stack, choices made when playing it (mode, targets, the value of X, whether a kicker cost was paid, how it will affect multiple targets, and so on). The "copiable values" are the values that are printed on the object, as modified by other copy effects, plus any values set for face-down spells or permanents and any values set by "comes into play as" abilities. Other effects (including type-changing effects) and counters are not copied. [CompRules 2005/10/01]
Example:Chimeric Staff is an artifact that reads "{X}: Chimeric Staff becomes an X/X artifact creature until end of turn." Clone is a creature that reads, "As Clone comes into play, you may choose a creature in play. If you do, Clone comes into play as a copy of that creature." After a Staff has become a 5/5 artifact creature, a Clone comes into play as a copy of it. The Clone is an artifact, not a 5/5 artifact creature. (The copy has the Staff's ability, however, and will become a creature if that ability is activated.) [CompRules 2003/07/01]
Johnny (with a touch of Spike)..
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And even if EE did stop it, they would just do it again next turn... On their upkeep. Otherwise fog would be insta-win and it's just not.
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Asking people to remove quotes in their signatures is tyranny! If I can't say something just because someone's feelings are hurt then no one would ever be able to say anything! Political correctness is stupid.
...Everytime a new card is being printed with an ability that says "goes to the graveyard" or "leaves play" R&D should sit there and think if flash is going to break it, but they probably won't.
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Oh wait, that's right, because WotC doesn't give us many and just took a dump on the one they were giving us. I'd rather not have to waste a GP to prove or disprove Flash's strength.
Flash is stronger than some of the cards on the banned list. So by that, either Flash goes on or several cards come off, or both. If it swarms the GP, chances are it will be banned.
When a new deck is beating what were considered good decks, and the only decks that can compete are sharing a common theme, there is a problem. I do not see how this is hard to comprehend.
Old decks don't have to remain winners forever.
Sure, I'll take a shot.
I think WotC has an answer for this already. I don't remember what their specific formula was. If the Top 8 are all Flash, well geee, duuurrr :B If the Top 8 is a mix of Flash and other decks, that depends on the other decks. Do they share a common theme? Do they all share Hulk Flash hate? Was one a lucky deck that dodged Flash all day? Is the entire Top 8 Hulk Flash hate decks?
So I will ask you your own question: What do you think would constitute a ban? What would be the minimum? If Hulk and hate dominates the tournament, are you just going to say "The format had to change at some point. The deck really isn't overpowered, get over it" ?
If I could predict well, I would be in the stock market. As it is, I had the misfortune of my crystal ball crashing. When I get my flat screen crytal ball, I'll make sure I'm a back up OS in case Windows blue screens.
You do realize that such predictions are difficult to make, given that it will be a large tournament?
You have mine. I would like to hear you answer your own questions.
(Siggy adapted, DarkHunter1357 (deviantART))
Flash hasn't been around long enough to have large tournament results.
While I think flash will be very strong at the gp, I don't think it will be a total massacre. There are two reason for this. First, flash becoming changed so recently, some players have not had a chance to get there asses in gear and get this deck together in time for gp. Secondly, flash doesn't get super uber retarded until after future sight becomes legal, which occurs after gp.
It's definitely more broken than at least 80% of the current B&R.
I have about 10 legacy decks built. As of flash, only one is remotely viable, and only because it gets a bunch of turn one kills.
This may surprise you, but I actually agree with you. As much as I dislike unnecessary bans, I dislike inconsistency and hypocrisy even more. You're right. There are some cards on the list that are of equal or lesser power than Flash, and I would support Wizards carefully removing some of them, and seeing how the format adapts.
Conversely, if Flash does indeed turn out to be too powerful (which is to say, the format devolves into Hulk Flash decks and anti-Hulk Flash decks), then I would support a ban. I've always said this. I'm simply of the opinion that it's not too powerful. I could be wrong, and if the GP results demonstrate so, I'll readily admit it.
I agree with Wizards' own criteria for when a ban is warranted:
1. When a card is too expensive and/or hard to find. I don't think Flash fits this criteria.
2. When a card is "un-fun." This is obviously debatable. Personally, I find it fun, but it is of course entirely a matter of opinion. Some people really dislike getting paired against Goblins. Some people despise discard, control, or land-destruction decks. This is a bit of a gray area, but at the moment, I don't think Flash is any more "un-fun" than several other accepted decks.
3. When the format devolves to consist entirely of either the problem deck, or decks specifically built to beat the problem deck. This is the real item here that threatens to necessitate a Flash ban. Unfortunately, demonstrating this point in the positive requires actual tournament data, which means those tournaments will be less enjoyable than they otherwise could have been. Again, this is a subjective criteria, but I believe there is a threshold beyond which few would deny it is met. If a decently-large Legacy tournament is comprised of 40% Hulk Flash decks, 40% Hulk Flash hate decks, and 20% "other," then I think few would argue that it's become a problem and needs to be banned.
I suppose that's a fair request.
1. How many Hulk Flash decks in the top-8 would you consider low enough to agree that Flash doesn't need to be banned?
You raised an excellent point that we should not merely be counting Hulk Flash decks, but rather should include Hulk Flash hate decks too. I agree. I would say if half of the top-8 (that is, 4) consists of Hulk Flash or Hulk Flash hate decks, then that's too many. If half your top contenders are built around playing/beating 1 card, then that card is exercising undue influence on the format. So my answer is "3."
2. What is your honest prediction on the number of Flash decks that make the top-8?
This is a tough prediction. Based on Internet buzz, if I had to guess, I'd say roughly 20% - 25% of the field will be playing Hulk Flash. Most of those will be inexperienced or just plain bad players, and many will be sub-optimal builds (due to naively employing their own "secret tech," using bad/outdated decklists, or simply lacking the ideal cards). However, given that Hulk Flash is the most powerful combo deck, I think it will claim spots that otherwise would have gone to Belcher, TES, or even IggyPop. So I'd expect to see 2-3 Hulk Flash decks in the top-8.
Agreed. The main reason I oppose Flash is the limited number of Legacy tournaments. Yes, I know that there are ones that are not DCI sponsored, which increases that number substantially. Correct me if I'm wrong, but I am under the opinion that WotC only uses results from its tournaments. So if, say, there is not a strong Flash showing, players have to deal with Flash if it isn't banned in the next update, regardless if it dominates other tournaments.
Legacy doesn't have the option of wading through this like Standard did with Raffinty. We don't have multiple DCI sponsored tournaments each year to get really good results to make a well informed decision. If we had multiple ones each year, I would probably take your stance in saying: Let's see some good results.
I don't care who is right or who is wrong on the issue. All I care about is the health and continued viabilty of the format, as well as its growth. I acknowledge that there are different opinions on this, and that is good. That is why I do not say "if you support Hulk Flash, you don't support the format", because I see that logic applied enough in real life and it is, frankly, stupid.
Agreed.
Sounds good. Of course, we all know that WotC will do what it wants to do based off the results regardless.
Right. One of my concerns is that Hulk Flash will not make a big showing, and thus "slip under the radar." As time goes by, the deck will improve, and it may show up in more and more non-DCI sanctioned tournaments. However, the DCI will probably not accept those results, and so Legacy will be plauged by Hulk Flash for a long time, as the span between DCI sponsored Legacy tournaments is a long one.
Of course, this is a hypothetical "dooms day" scenario, but I am by nature a pessimist on many things. Though, I would love this scenario to be proven false, because it means that Legacy remains healthy.
(Siggy adapted, DarkHunter1357 (deviantART))
Ah, I think we're getting to the root cause of your opposition. I can't say conclusively, but I'm almost positive that the DCI takes all tournament results into account, not just their own. I think Vintage demonstrates precedence for this. There are very, very few major sanctioned Vintage events (I believe the only one is Gencon, once a year). However, the Vintage restricted list is updated any time a change becomes necessary. The folks at Wizards don't say much in the forums, but they've said that they do indeed read what goes on, and are keenly aware of the state of the metagames of the various formats. I'm confident your fears in this regard are unfounded. When deciding the June 1st bannings, they'll not only look at the Columbus results, but all recent Legacy results. In fact, I'm confident they'll even take into consideration the post-Future Sight versions of Hulk Flash, since they won't have another opportunity to adjust the banned list until September.
Well, the other tournaments are small, so they are subject to flukes that would not affect larger tournaments. I would give a more in depth explanation, but it's been close to a year since I took a statistics class, and my next one isn't a general one, so I don't know how applicable it would be to this.
I would love for my fears to be unfounded. I hope they are. I'll just have to wait and see.
(Siggy adapted, DarkHunter1357 (deviantART))
true goblins like wins 30% of the big legacy events. Even worse...
Look at it this way, It occupied 30% of the top8, when the deck is relatively new. It's lists are unrefined, some people havnt got around to obtain their copies of flash, some people will think wizard will ban it after GP so there is no point buying them, some ppl stopped playing legacy for a month in hope that flash would disappear.
Despite those possible reasons that flash's presence to be lower than what is predicted, the unrefined decklists (i think i read on some report there is only like 15 cards thats all the same between all the flash lists) its beating out Decks which has been around for years(or months in some cases), every card slot examined and tested. If thats not the testament of the Deck's power, i dnt know what is. I mean even affinity, in its early days, were unrefined. (the mantle/vial debate) or psychatog (ppl ran finkle in what?)
A couple of other things to take into consideration:
How fast its goldfish is, It has a very consistent turn 1~2 goldfish (if u choose to go that route) which is not unlike belcher but belcher is much much easier to disrupt plus it cant afford to run disruption of it own where flash can afford to.
The wide difference between the Flash lists, that makes the deck extremely difficult to stop, say i have extirpate, Engineerd plague and leyline, 2 of my defence immediately doesnt matter the moment i play a flash player using the disciple kill. Leyline can actually be removed as a lot of flash lists has started to run some main deck bounce, and the ability to find it very quickly (LDV, Scroll or MTutor)
Post FS, the deck will be absolutely insane, it requires 2 cards (as oppose to multiple cards required for other combos) it costs 2 mana (belcher needs 7 to combo off turn 1, flash needs 2, one of these is easier than the other) It can run 8 free counters, Yes other decks can also run pact of negation, but honestly whats the difference to lose in ur next upkeep??? yes spellsnare/stifle/force/daze all work against flash, but notice they are all blue, esp FoW which requires u to have a heavy commitment to blue to be able to reliably use it. Duress and therapy works some what, but flash does run some very sophisticatd cards which allow it to get all the combo piece back quickly. Also flash does have force etc to protect its hand. And remember, again this is useful against current generation of flash decks, who knows whether they will be useful against the next.
The reason why ppl complains how bad flash is for the format is easy to understand and justified i feel. First it makes all other combo decks obsolete. By forcing every deck to run massive amount of combo hate and by being faster, more resilient and just generally better than other combos we have seen in the format.
It make non-blue based aggro decks unplayable, in fact, it makes non-blue decks unplayable. My deck of choice before the while flash thing started was red death, and when this flash thing started i thought, meh, red death is MADE to beat combo decks rite? after losing to my friend's proxied after copy paste deck list from the some random site like 15-3, i had other ideas. Yes i occasionally gets the ritual duress hymn hand that wins, the flash was stronger than other combo decks. It doesnt even have the ETW storm combo's problem( and advantage too), where they partially go off with ETW and kill u. When flash goes off, it just wins.
Sure goblins can fight it with....SB pyro+REB+leyline which it cant cast.
But it mite still lose, why? because by putting in those hate cards it effects the speed of its own goldfish and mite not have a fast enough clock present so that flash does recover.
Is flash format dominating? potentially and very likely, is it worth the ban? possibly, ppl did mention the the previous DTB goblins had similar effect too, the thing was cards thats good against gobo (and the famous turn 1 lackey) like lightning bolt, swords, etc was good against other decks that ran creatures as well. So the effect is going to be more pronounced for flash.
I think some other questions to consider are:
How many Leyline are there going to be in the SB at the GP.
How many copies of FoW/stifle is there going to be in the t8?
how many non-blue deck are going to be in the t8?
as far as i know, flash beats pretty much every midrange deck in the format (i could be wrong, u could have tuned ur angel stax/rock/survival to a 70-30 against flash, then maybe u will still lose to flash at the end of the day)
I think it should be banned, I could change my mind, but wizard probably doesnt care cuz they dnt make money directly off legacy.
(u know something is wrong if the creator of every major combo deck in the format is abandoning their own decks and playing flash instead)
I just hope we get to see GP Flash, (much like PT Rebel, which helped banned Lin Sivvi in block)
Spread the word.
SpatulaOfTheAges pretty much expresses what I wanted to say in a much concise form. No deck is so so broken that it is unbeatable, you just gotta put so much hate into one deck that would be able to handle it. What we've been seeing a lot in the GPT is that the majority of those that aren't Flash consist of: Blue, or Black, or with a turn 1 kill. It really isn't comparable to Goblin's 'dominance' of the format, Boop.
I don't think you understand what the word "monopolized" means.
Absolutely False.
Black, Red, and White all have tools to stop this combo. Sorry, green.
Black: Leyline of the Void completely stops all versions of this combo cold. A timely Diabolic Edict/Terror stops the Kiki build. Planar Void stops the Kiki build.
Red: REB and Pyroblast both stop Flash, and they can't get much cheaper than one red mana.
White: Lifegain stops the Disciple build. Children of Korlis. Orim's Chant. A timely Swords to Plowshares.
Even artifacts can stop it. Drop an EE for 0. When 1 billion Karmic Guide copies come scurrying over, pop it. There are tons more answers that have already been suggested elsewhere, and I won't re-hash here.
This is not an unbeatable deck. It folds to any disruption it doesn't have a counterspell for.
While it's true blue offers the easiest answers, that's simply a reflection of the reality that blue is the most powerful color in the game. Any format that's going to allow cards all the way back to the beginning of Magic is going to have to recognize and accept this fact.
I don't really know how to respond to that. That comment appears so incomprehensibly illogical to me that I wouldn't even know where to start to rebut it. If a deck shows up in droves at a major event and fails to top 8, I literally cannot fathom how any sensible being could advocate banning the engine card of the deck.
So if the same decks make top 4 that always make top 4, why are we banning the ones that scrubbed out in the top 8 and not the usual suspects that win the whole thing?
lets see then..
1. How many Hulk Flash decks in the top-8 would you consider low enough to agree that Flash doesn't need to be banned?
3 or less. As an added note, if more than hal fof the well performing field is playing decks specificlly built to beat hulk flash (as opposed to being a good deck that also oruns hate), I would concede that the combo needed to go.
2. What is your honest prediction on the number of Flash decks that make the top-8?
Two. MAYBE three, but once the ball gets rolling on how to respond to the deck, the number will go down.
As an added point, lets look at goblins. That deck also has no options against combo like solidarity, so it has resorted to running 4 REB and 3-4 pyrostatic pillars in the board, alongside cabal therapies (in some builds). Like goblins, any deck without blue or black has NO game against solidarity without huge amounts of hate... does that mean that solidarity is severely overpowered? Of course not - the metagame adapted. As it will again.
The fact that you are willing to admit Hulk/Flash will probably have 3 Top-8 spots already proves how powerful this card and deck is, BEFORE Summoner's Pact.
When the pact is legal - this deck might as well be Affinity in Standard - it will be the deck to beat, it will be the deck that wins, and wins again.
No deck is unbeatable - no deck ever was - that never stopped cards from being banned or restricted, or erata'd. You mention all these sideboard possibilities that are IF's. Pact of Negation says no to all your disruption for free. So does FoW.
The card will not survive the next cycle of changes, accept it.
Spread the word.
1. Running Blue
2. Running Black
3. Has turn 1 kill.
There will always be an exception to that in the top8, much like how a hulksmash deck manage to win the D2D through, the most part, avoid goblins. But look at the link Spatula and I have provides (albeit that they are the same link) and see that the majority of those that have top8-ed since the appearance of Hulk flash has been either Hulk flash or those deck that fits the description that I listed on top.
Continuing to fail to believe that maybe some of us recognize that Hulk flash isn't the omgerz-world-is-falling-apart will get this argument no where.
Flash is totally twisting our minds and smashing our dreams. Legacy used to be awesome. It basically had infinite deck building possibilities. Now it has two possibilities, flash, and flashbeater.dec.
I saw on one forum the following conversation
somekid: Yay! The trifecta of thresh gobs solidarity has fallen!
someguy: Yeah! Now it's a onefecta! It's so much better!
I can't tell what your umm means. So in case you didn't understand why 32 FoW was relevant, it means that every single deck that placed in the top 8 played Force of Will as a 4-of.
If your answer is "No," then your morality does not come from God's commandments.
If your answer is "Yes," then please, please reconsider.
You know, some drink wine without water, but you, you drink water without wine.
If I didn't understand what 32 forces meant I wouldn't have posted.
I am just pointing out how twisted this "format" has gotten. The umm was for the guys who think everything is fine.
Once again, I have no idea what you're trying to communicate.
If your answer is "No," then your morality does not come from God's commandments.
If your answer is "Yes," then please, please reconsider.
He was pointing out to the people supporting Hulk Flash that the top 8 decks shared a theme: Force of Will.
(Siggy adapted, DarkHunter1357 (deviantART))
how the hell does Orim;s chant stop flash again?? Do u even know how flash works?? (cast flash, repsonse chant....................both player sits there............then u die)
REB/Pyro, while this have limited applications, they cant be ur only defence, lets say u have 8 blast Post board, since u lost game 1, u r starting game 2. U either Lose on ur upkeep cuz they turn 0 kill u (soemone on SCG work out this can occur 12% of the time post FS) or u get to make a mountain pass. Into their potential 4FoW, 4Pact, 4Daze, maybe unmask to nuke ur hand. Regardless, the odds doesn't look good for u, what if they dnt combo turn 1 and past the turn, instead of casting lackey turn 1 they did nothing to keep counter mana open, thereby giving the flash players more turns to assemble discard/counter/combo pieces.
U mentioned lifegain as good answer to the disciple version and EE is good against the karmic guide version. So what are u running in ur sideboard?? If u run 1 hate and they play the other version (How dare the opponents play a version of flash they u werent prepared for!!!) then u lose, if u dnt draw hate u lose, if that have 1 counterspell u lose (unless u draw multiple hate cards)
The fact is, flah turns this format into "play 4 FoW, win turn 1 or have no chance"
Spread the word.
Actually no. Not many people remember that token creature copies are copies in every sense of the word.
i.e. name, colour, type, p/t, mana cost, expansion symbol.
I'll track down the part of the Comp Rules where it says that if necessary...
Edit: here we go.
Creator of Thoughtless Sensei and Morph Aggro
Gaymer
Raccoons please
My artworkz
"We've made OVER NINE THOUSAND unique cards."
- MaRo, October 8th, 2007
IT'S OVER NINE THOUSAAAAAND!!!!!
Very, very forced into running specific cards to compete. Me doesn't likes it that way.
(Siggy adapted, DarkHunter1357 (deviantART))
Fixed.