I really like some of the recent decks that have done well that use Flayer of the Hatebound. He seems to be able to bring a win even if combat is shut down.
I was just recently able to pick up some LEDs reasonably in trade; so I'm probably going back to Dredge for a bit (I played dredge pre-Faithless Looting when LEDless was 'better').
Completely cutting Putrid Imp was a hard choice but worth it I think.
My rudimentary stats and playtesting seems to indicate that a turn 1 flat out win (not just dominating) is not only possible; but occurs with relative frequency.
Yeah it's nowhere near 50%; my gut and anecdotal evidence says between 5-15%. I'm trying to calculate but it gets complicated. And something is wrong with my stats.
The chance of seeing at least 1 card in your opening 7 when you have 4 in your deck is (combin(4,1) * combin(59,6)) / combin(60,7) = 46.66%. Or is my stats wrong? The chance of seeing one and only one is (combin(4,1) * combin(56,6)) / combin (60,7) = 33.63%.
Then the chance of seeing at least one LED, and Land is
(combin(4,1) * combin(12,1) * combin(58,5)) / combin(60,7) = 56.94%. But how can that be higher - it doesn't make sense - what is my error?
Rest in Peace is pretty scary, but I really don't think it's going to see much play. Sideboard slots are valuable, and if you're hating against graveyards, you need something that's good against both Dredge and the other graveyard decks. At 2 mana, Rest in Peace offers no interaction against Reanimator decks when you're on the draw and they go for a turn 2 reanimate/exhume/animate dead. Plus, it's Cabal Therapyable, and although that can be played around with Brainstorm/Enlightened Tutor, I don't know if it's better than the hate that's already out there.
That said, it is a good card, so definitely should be packing some Nature's Claims in the sideboard.
Essentially for a turn 1 win you need: 1 land, 1 draw spell, 1 LED, 1 dredger. Then you need decent dredges.
Chance of at least one led
=1 - COMBIN(56,7) / COMBIN(60,7)
= 39.95%
Chance of at least one led and one land
=1 - ( (COMBIN(56,7) + COMBIN(48,7) - COMBIN(44,7)) / COMBIN(60,7))
=30.8%
Change of at least one LED, one LAND, and one Dredger
=1 - ( (COMBIN(56,7) + COMBIN(48,7) + COMBIN(48,7) - (COMBIN(44,7) + COMBIN(44,7) + COMBIN(36,7)) + (COMBIN(32,7))) / COMBIN(60,7))
=22.6%
Chance of at least one LED, one LAND, and one Dredger, and one draw spell
=1 - ( (COMBIN(56,7) + 3*COMBIN(48,7) - (3*COMBIN(44,7) + 3*COMBIN(36,7)) + (3*COMBIN(32,7) + COMBIN(24,7)) - COMBIN(20,7)) / COMBIN(60,7))
=16.32%
Thx to TheOneEye for help fixing my stats.
Chance of 'God Mode' hands:
Chance on draw of 8: 23.30%
Chance on draw of 7: 16.32%
Chance on draw of 6: 9.96%
Chance on draw of 5: 4.81%
Chance on draw of 4: 1.42%
Looking at the effect that increasing certain cards adds to the chance of a 'God Hand'. There aren't any other LEDs, nor decent dredgers, but there are more lands and draw spells.
12 lands & draw: 16.23%
13 lands & draw: 17.88% a 9.5% increase
14 lands & draw: 19.34% a 8.2% increase
15 lands & draw: 20.70% a 7.1% increase
I was looking for draw spells and was thinking about Brainstorm (another option would be Visions of Beyond; it doesn't have the discard outlet that other draw spells have so I wouldn't cut them in favor of this, but with the standard set maxed out Brainstorm looks attractive. It also gives a means to get Narcomoeba back on top.
Of course the only card that we really have to play with is Cabal Therapy; and I'm fairly certain that a slight increase in 'God Hand' probability is not worth giving up that aspect of control.
Well, you can only play 4 LEDs in your deck, so no. The chance to draw at least one LED in your opening 7 is already less than 40% and without LED you're not going to win on turn one.
I'm too lazy to calc, but the chances are probably somewhere between 5 and 10%. Do you honestly think that Dredge would still be a legal deck if it had a turn 1 kill percentage of over 50%?
That was a trick question, actually ("Does that DR build have a greater than 50% T1 rate?"). No offense, but we don't know each other and occasionally folks get carried away and exaggerate T1 percentages. It must be nice to live in Magical Christmas Land. Just checking. I'm glad to see you dwell in the same table-bound reality as myself.
I guess the question, for me, is not so much what the T1 % is (though everyone seems to have gone to quite a length to calculate it), but to what extent it's beneficial/necessary to have it. Does it occur often enough in the games when it's needed (games that wouldn't otherwise have been won) to outweigh the games that were lost due to inconsistency attributable to the DR package?
That's a much more difficult question to calculate, and to some extent depends on the metagame one is in. Personally I'm wondering if I ought, now, to switch out my 'anti-Surgical Extraction' SB suite from 2 DR, one Flayer, one Angel of Despair into one Tarnished Citadel and 3 Ashen Ghoul.
One thing that confuses me a little is that when I played dredge before the general consensus was LEDless and ~15 land. Now with Faithless Looting the consensus seems to be LED and 12 land. The thing that confuses me is that LED can't actually take the place of a land.
Previously you had to have 1 land;now you have to have one land - you never really need more than one; though sometimes 2 is nice. So why did the land requirement drop?
LED can take the place of a land if a) the hand also includes Faithless Looting, or b) you are discarding to the hand size limit rule. In the former case it's obvious how it works, in the later case after the initial Dredge either there is now a Faithless in the GY, some goodies in your hand that want to get dumped (like a Bridge, Ichorid or a Therapy), or if not just toss the Dredger to the hand limit rule and try again next turn.
Pretty much any 7 card hand (on the draw) with a Dredger and the LED is a keeper, land or no land. It would have to really stink, like Thug, LED, Narcomeba x4, Breakthrough to get shipped back.
I have some experience with the deck; and I've come closer to choosing the draw over the play when winning the die roll - but thus far I've always chosen to play. Is draw the default now?
It is for me, but it may vary depending on what the other guy is playing. Choosing draw against Goblins is one thing, but against Belcher it's suicide.
So just popping back into legacy after about a year of being out of it. I was looking at current builds and things on here to update my dredge and I'm seeing some people dropping the DR package. Is this really worth it? One of the reason I like dredge is not only is it fast but it has so many win cons. Is it best to cut one to up the other?
Led isnt a land necessarily but if you have an led in had you dont necessarily need a land at all. There have been quite a few games were dropping and cracking an led without a land on board and flashing back a faithless looting has won me the game. If you have a land it just gets insane. I went 6-3 at nationals. I started off 6-0 then played hive mind, show and tell, and then goblins. When I played goblins I was on 36 hours without sleep and just really didnt care at all. I probably could of won that game since I have play tested that match ALOT. I finished 25 with Flayer. Show and tell is such a hard match up its just straight painful.
You cannot cut putrid imp. As much as I would love to have 4 more slots it simply cannot be done. Post board he is absolutely necessary.
Im actually really scared of the dryad militant the most out of all the new hate pieces. Main decking dark blast might be necessary in the near future or gut shot....
Maybe I ought to be testing it out, but it looks to me like something that's going to die when it blocks a zombie or one of the 3/1s, if it hits play at all. Go Quadlazer!
Dunno if it has been discussed, but isn't Sphinx of the Chimes a good DR target?
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Dunno if it has been discussed, but isn't Sphinx of the Chimes a good DR target?
Eh, seems like a win more. If you can DR him, you should be able to have better board impact. His is similar to lost truths. I mean, def test it, but normally, I dont have much of a hand where he would work. Can you see him working?
1x Flayer + 1x Zealot = 2 only DR target in my deck from now on
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11:15, restate my assumptions: 1. Mathematics is the language of nature. 2. Everything around us can be represented and understood through numbers. 3. If you graph these numbers, patterns emerge. Therefore: There are patterns everywhere in nature. - Maximillian Cohen.
Took 9th in a 39 man tourney today with Quadlazer. Yeah. 9th on tiebreakers. Is it my fault the folks I beat went on to do badly?
Anyway, I noticed something. I like the anti-hate package. I like to deploy it in game 3, if I lose 2 to their hate. Dredge is a bit rare these days. No one had really proper hate for me. There were no other Dredge decks present. My board of:
4 Leyline
4 Nature's Claim
3 Chain of Vapor
2 Dread Return
1 Flayer of the Hatebound
1 Angel of Despair
...was only useful insofar as I had Chain of Capor and Nature's Claim. I wouldn't play Leyline next time, it raises too many mulligan questions. I wouldn't play Dread Return next time. It was supposed to help protect against Surgical, which it failed to do.
What I noticed was that I'd often need to slow Dredge, or race, and I'd have 1 or 2 mana open from a City of Brass, Gemstone Mine, etc that never got used. I also fought a tough battle against Reanimator that I ultimately lost.
If I were to do this again, I would bring this:
4 Nature's Claim
3 Ray of Revelation
3 Ancient Grudge
3 Memory's Journey
2 Ashen Ghoul
That's still 7 answers to Leyline, 7 to Crypt, 5 to Surgical: all of them useful during my humdrum standard Dredging routine.
I'd only pretend to board anything in G2 and just go fearless, racing them, and upon seeing what hate they brought, select which package to board in. Would have been much more useful than what I did pack, anyway.
It doesn't have haste, it can't block, it's 1 weaker, it require you to have a zombie - but it recurses as long as you have mana, which he often don't have a lot of.
It doesn't have haste, it can't block, it's 1 weaker, it require you to have a zombie - but it recurses as long as you have mana, which he often don't have a lot of.
Probably a bust - but I want to like it.
if you running mana based recursion he isn't bad, but the initial source of zombies for him to use is limited. so far we only have 4x putrid imps the only 4 zombies in the deck. zombie tokens are made too late in the game for crawler to really be effective.
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I'm building LEDless dredge, can somebody please post an up to date MD and SB. Also is ashen ghoul a real SB possibility?
Dunno about Ashen since he costs mana to reccur.... but looking at Gerry Thompson deck list in the top32 Cinnciati, I must say that Nether Shadow is a really underrestimated card.
Never thought about that little fella
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11:15, restate my assumptions: 1. Mathematics is the language of nature. 2. Everything around us can be represented and understood through numbers. 3. If you graph these numbers, patterns emerge. Therefore: There are patterns everywhere in nature. - Maximillian Cohen.
Dunno about Ashen since he costs mana to reccur.... but looking at Gerry Thompson deck list in the top32 Cinnciati, I must say that Nether Shadow is a really underrestimated card.
Never thought about that little fella
It bugs me how Nether Shadow has contradicting rules on different cards lol. I had to check gatherer to make sure it didn't cost anything to recur and wasn't a typo.
Honestly though I am starting to be a fan of Ashen Ghoul. 3/1 Haste is pretty nice its like a black Lightning Bolt.
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I was just recently able to pick up some LEDs reasonably in trade; so I'm probably going back to Dredge for a bit (I played dredge pre-Faithless Looting when LEDless was 'better').
4 Golgari Grave-Troll
4 Stinkweed Imp
4 Golgari Thug
4 Narcomoeba
3 Ichorid
2 Flayer of the Hatebound
Sorceries [19]
4 Breakthrough
4 Cabal Therapy
4 Careful Study
4 Faithless Looting
3 Dread Return
4 Bridge from Below
Artifacts [4]
4 Lion's Eye Diamond
Lands [12]
4 Cephalid Coliseum
4 City of Brass
4 Gemstone Mine
Side
4 Leyline of the Void
4 Nature's Claim
3 Firestorm
2 Ancient Grudge
2 Ray of Revelation
Completely cutting Putrid Imp was a hard choice but worth it I think.
My rudimentary stats and playtesting seems to indicate that a turn 1 flat out win (not just dominating) is not only possible; but occurs with relative frequency.
Overall record: 139-98-15
Total number of matches: 252
Win percentage ignoring draws: 58.649789
Win percentage including draws: 55.158730
The chance of seeing at least 1 card in your opening 7 when you have 4 in your deck is (combin(4,1) * combin(59,6)) / combin(60,7) = 46.66%. Or is my stats wrong? The chance of seeing one and only one is (combin(4,1) * combin(56,6)) / combin (60,7) = 33.63%.
Then the chance of seeing at least one LED, and Land is
(combin(4,1) * combin(12,1) * combin(58,5)) / combin(60,7) = 56.94%. But how can that be higher - it doesn't make sense - what is my error?
That said, it is a good card, so definitely should be packing some Nature's Claims in the sideboard.
Basically though, keep calm and carry on.
Chance of at least one led
=1 - COMBIN(56,7) / COMBIN(60,7)
= 39.95%
Chance of at least one led and one land
=1 - ( (COMBIN(56,7) + COMBIN(48,7) - COMBIN(44,7)) / COMBIN(60,7))
=30.8%
Change of at least one LED, one LAND, and one Dredger
=1 - ( (COMBIN(56,7) + COMBIN(48,7) + COMBIN(48,7) - (COMBIN(44,7) + COMBIN(44,7) + COMBIN(36,7)) + (COMBIN(32,7))) / COMBIN(60,7))
=22.6%
Chance of at least one LED, one LAND, and one Dredger, and one draw spell
=1 - ( (COMBIN(56,7) + 3*COMBIN(48,7) - (3*COMBIN(44,7) + 3*COMBIN(36,7)) + (3*COMBIN(32,7) + COMBIN(24,7)) - COMBIN(20,7)) / COMBIN(60,7))
=16.32%
Thx to TheOneEye for help fixing my stats.
Chance of 'God Mode' hands:
Chance on draw of 8: 23.30%
Chance on draw of 7: 16.32%
Chance on draw of 6: 9.96%
Chance on draw of 5: 4.81%
Chance on draw of 4: 1.42%
12 lands & draw: 16.23%
13 lands & draw: 17.88% a 9.5% increase
14 lands & draw: 19.34% a 8.2% increase
15 lands & draw: 20.70% a 7.1% increase
I was looking for draw spells and was thinking about Brainstorm (another option would be Visions of Beyond; it doesn't have the discard outlet that other draw spells have so I wouldn't cut them in favor of this, but with the standard set maxed out Brainstorm looks attractive. It also gives a means to get Narcomoeba back on top.
Of course the only card that we really have to play with is Cabal Therapy; and I'm fairly certain that a slight increase in 'God Hand' probability is not worth giving up that aspect of control.
That was a trick question, actually ("Does that DR build have a greater than 50% T1 rate?"). No offense, but we don't know each other and occasionally folks get carried away and exaggerate T1 percentages. It must be nice to live in Magical Christmas Land. Just checking. I'm glad to see you dwell in the same table-bound reality as myself.
I guess the question, for me, is not so much what the T1 % is (though everyone seems to have gone to quite a length to calculate it), but to what extent it's beneficial/necessary to have it. Does it occur often enough in the games when it's needed (games that wouldn't otherwise have been won) to outweigh the games that were lost due to inconsistency attributable to the DR package?
That's a much more difficult question to calculate, and to some extent depends on the metagame one is in. Personally I'm wondering if I ought, now, to switch out my 'anti-Surgical Extraction' SB suite from 2 DR, one Flayer, one Angel of Despair into one Tarnished Citadel and 3 Ashen Ghoul.
Overall record: 139-98-15
Total number of matches: 252
Win percentage ignoring draws: 58.649789
Win percentage including draws: 55.158730
Previously you had to have 1 land;now you have to have one land - you never really need more than one; though sometimes 2 is nice. So why did the land requirement drop?
Pretty much any 7 card hand (on the draw) with a Dredger and the LED is a keeper, land or no land. It would have to really stink, like Thug, LED, Narcomeba x4, Breakthrough to get shipped back.
Overall record: 139-98-15
Total number of matches: 252
Win percentage ignoring draws: 58.649789
Win percentage including draws: 55.158730
Overall record: 139-98-15
Total number of matches: 252
Win percentage ignoring draws: 58.649789
Win percentage including draws: 55.158730
Legacy:
RGWBUDredgeUBWGR
:symrg:Belcher:symrg:
WD&TW
Affinity
WGriffinsW (pauper)
U/thopter comboU/ (peasant)
:symbg:Moosebite:symbg: (peasant)
RGobo tokensR (peasant)
R slide R (peasant)
:symur:pingers:symur:
You cannot cut putrid imp. As much as I would love to have 4 more slots it simply cannot be done. Post board he is absolutely necessary.
Im actually really scared of the dryad militant the most out of all the new hate pieces. Main decking dark blast might be necessary in the near future or gut shot....
Maybe I ought to be testing it out, but it looks to me like something that's going to die when it blocks a zombie or one of the 3/1s, if it hits play at all. Go Quadlazer!
Overall record: 139-98-15
Total number of matches: 252
Win percentage ignoring draws: 58.649789
Win percentage including draws: 55.158730
Now where did I put those Ashen Ghouls...
Overall record: 139-98-15
Total number of matches: 252
Win percentage ignoring draws: 58.649789
Win percentage including draws: 55.158730
Standard: XDon't play.X
Legacy: BUReanimatorUB
Vintage: URBWGDBRU
Eh, seems like a win more. If you can DR him, you should be able to have better board impact. His is similar to lost truths. I mean, def test it, but normally, I dont have much of a hand where he would work. Can you see him working?
I don't think I'll have many cards left in library after I bring this dude back!
Overall record: 139-98-15
Total number of matches: 252
Win percentage ignoring draws: 58.649789
Win percentage including draws: 55.158730
1x Flayer + 1x Zealot = 2 only DR target in my deck from now on
Standard: XDon't play.X
Legacy: BUReanimatorUB
Vintage: URBWGDBRU
Anyway, I noticed something. I like the anti-hate package. I like to deploy it in game 3, if I lose 2 to their hate. Dredge is a bit rare these days. No one had really proper hate for me. There were no other Dredge decks present. My board of:
4 Leyline
4 Nature's Claim
3 Chain of Vapor
2 Dread Return
1 Flayer of the Hatebound
1 Angel of Despair
...was only useful insofar as I had Chain of Capor and Nature's Claim. I wouldn't play Leyline next time, it raises too many mulligan questions. I wouldn't play Dread Return next time. It was supposed to help protect against Surgical, which it failed to do.
What I noticed was that I'd often need to slow Dredge, or race, and I'd have 1 or 2 mana open from a City of Brass, Gemstone Mine, etc that never got used. I also fought a tough battle against Reanimator that I ultimately lost.
If I were to do this again, I would bring this:
4 Nature's Claim
3 Ray of Revelation
3 Ancient Grudge
3 Memory's Journey
2 Ashen Ghoul
That's still 7 answers to Leyline, 7 to Crypt, 5 to Surgical: all of them useful during my humdrum standard Dredging routine.
I'd only pretend to board anything in G2 and just go fearless, racing them, and upon seeing what hate they brought, select which package to board in. Would have been much more useful than what I did pack, anyway.
Overall record: 139-98-15
Total number of matches: 252
Win percentage ignoring draws: 58.649789
Win percentage including draws: 55.158730
It doesn't have haste, it can't block, it's 1 weaker, it require you to have a zombie - but it recurses as long as you have mana, which he often don't have a lot of.
Probably a bust - but I want to like it.
if you running mana based recursion he isn't bad, but the initial source of zombies for him to use is limited. so far we only have 4x putrid imps the only 4 zombies in the deck. zombie tokens are made too late in the game for crawler to really be effective.
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Vintage will rise again! Buy a Mox today!
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[I]Some call it dig through time, when really your digging through CRAP!
Merfolk! showing magic players what a shower is since Lorwyn!
Dunno about Ashen since he costs mana to reccur.... but looking at Gerry Thompson deck list in the top32 Cinnciati, I must say that Nether Shadow is a really underrestimated card.
Never thought about that little fella
Standard: XDon't play.X
Legacy: BUReanimatorUB
Vintage: URBWGDBRU
It bugs me how Nether Shadow has contradicting rules on different cards lol. I had to check gatherer to make sure it didn't cost anything to recur and wasn't a typo.
Honestly though I am starting to be a fan of Ashen Ghoul. 3/1 Haste is pretty nice its like a black Lightning Bolt.