So I've played a lot of different decks through the years, UR Delver being my current competitive deck. In the past, I played UW Landstill. But, I'm sure most everyone has a pet deck that they've had a thing for but it was never exactly Tier 1 level competitive. I am no different. I have a UW Trained Rebel deck that I really love. However, I play in a limited meta. (not a ton of guys at my FNM play legacy, they all just basically play EDH, Standard, and Modern)
Regardless, I want some feedback as to just how competitive all of you think this deck can be.
The deck revolves around Lin Sivvi, Defiant HeroMirror EntityRamosian SergeantDefiant FalconGaea's Cradle and Training Grounds, while using a robust counter set and draw engine. Basically, I'm looking for (1) general impressions of the deck and (2) how competitive it can be in legacy...I don't expect it to be a Tier 1 amazing legacy deck, but if it can be reasonably competitive, I'd be happy. Also, any obvious suggestions for improvement are always welcome, too. Thanks!
I have played rebels before. It can be competetive. Training grounds I feel is just a bad card and not worth the inclusion. Cradle can do the same work. If someone really wants to play training grounds I feel they should play less and have an e tutor package.
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I strongly like Aether Vial in tribal lists. I also super love Cavern of Souls. I'm not entirely sure how I feel about Training Grounds though. It's 1cmc and pitches to Force, but it's dead without creatures. I sincerely dislike the mana-base. I get that all your creatures are shuffle effects, but only 4 fetches to back up your Brainstorms seems bad. If you go to an Aether Vial version, you could conceivably play a very similar manabase to Death and Taxes. That might be a smart idea, as the Rebels themselves aren't that disruptive. Cradle functions solely as a colorless source, and it's legendary. I like how cute it is, I also dislike that it's cute.
As WeaponX said above, I like an E-Tutor package as well. It also lets you play singleton equipment, which is really really strong in a Tribal list like this. Without Stoneforge, I would limit to just Jitte and either Sword of Fire and Ice or Feast and Famine. SoFI is the better sword, but F&F has some lovely synergies with your list. There are, in my mind, two options here: 1) an Aether Vial based Tempo-Rebels list 2) a midrange Equipment Rebels list. Conceptually, they would look something like the following:
In both lists, I strongly question the inclusion of Force of Will. There is a very good chance that neither deck plays enough blue cards in order to reliably cast Force. This would require some amount of play testing. Otherwise, I think either strategy is a solid one.
My only problem with Aether Vial is that Rebels are basically Aether Vials in the sense that they play other rebels in a way that can't be countered. It seems too redundant, and maybe I'm wrong. I do agree with you Flavius that Force of Will may not have enough blue pitch cards...
As far as what both of you said about Gaea's Cradle and Training Grounds, Legacy Rebels have always had two big problems being competitive.
(1) They were never powerful enough and had no good win conditions. That changed when Mirror Entity came out giving a tutorable power buff for the entire Rebel army.
(2) Rebels are so mana hungry that they were always too slow to consistently compete in Legacy. Gaea's Cradle is cute, but it basically helps function as tutorable mana every turn and then swing for the fences with Mirror Entity. Without some sort of meaningful mana ramp, Rebels are simply too slow to compete. Gaea's Cradle seems like an absolute essential in this deck. I don't know how the deck competes without it. With regards to Training Grounds, I can see how basically after two copies of it on the board, it doesn't improve tutoring for other rebels because it can't reduce recruiting costs lower than 1. So two copies of Training Grounds can only cut the Falcon to 1 to recruit the next Rebel. But it does allow for even more powerful Mirror Entity power buffs, whether it is to play offense or defense.
My question for WeaponX, is what do you suggest the build look like without Training Grounds...Mono-W, still a U/W build, or something else? And what kind of cards would you take out and put in? Is there a better ramp card that I'm missing or do you have a concept you could show me that doesn't have TG? (I ask in all sincerity and not in any sort of confrontational manner)
You've made some incredibly solid points. To begin, I'd like to discuss Aether Vial a little bit more. As you noted, the Rebels themselves are adept at tutoring from your library to the battlefield. In order to do that, however, you need access to mana. If you use your mana to do Rebel tutoring, you don't have the mana to cast more Rebel cards or the rest of your spells. This is where Aether Vial comes in. While the fact that it provides an uncounterable way to put creatures into play, that's not really its most powerful function. In essence, it serves as a distinct parallel source of mana solely for creature spells. The ability to play out threats every turn and *still* have mana availible for cantrips, counterspells, tutoring, etc is incredibly powerful in Tribal strategies. I'm not suggesting that Vial need go in every creature deck, but it is necessary for ones looking to do two simultaneous things. For instance, it doesn't do anything in a tempo Delver or Secrets deck as they're *not* looking to play out multiple threats, but rather to ride what they do have to victory.
In regards to your first point: it's true that Rebels as a tribe lacks any serious finisher. It also doesn't have the self-pump of Merfolk or Goblins, nor does it have the explosive elements of Elves. That said, what it does have, is inevitability. Every Rebel can eventually find every other Rebel. As you've noted Mirror Entity does a great job of being tutorable and capable of turning all those individually weak Rebels into giant threats. I can't offer any other win conditions, except the inclusion of the Stoneforge Mystic + Equipment package. That package is not nearly as good as Mirror Entitiy however.
To address the second point: you're entirely correct that Rebels as a tribe are super mana hungry. The problem with Gaia's Cradle as a solution to this is that is a very swingy card. It has a very very high potential power level and a very low power-level floor. In essence, it's a win-more card that requires you to be ahead to be powerful. I'm not saying that effect isn't important: closing out games is a very important thing for decks to do. I am saying that it shouldn't be the only source of ramp in your list.
Therefore, I propose a somewhat radical alternative: Rebel Stompy. Using Mox Diamond, Ancient Tomb, and City of Traitors as your major mana sources really boosts the speed of the assembling Rebels. Simultaneously, you get to play Chalice of the Void and Trinisphere to protect yourself, and more importantly, your Rebels. Lightning Bolt and Swords to Plowshares do an incredibly amount of work against a deck filled with 1/1s. Obviously, this means we have to cut the 1cmc rebels, but that's quite alright as they were poor creatures anyway. Instead, we can play a full 4 copies each of Defiant Falcon, Ramosian Lieutenant, Mirror Entitiy, Whipcorder, Vanguard and 2-3 Lin Sivvi.
It even solves the mana question: a full 4 Caverns are called for, on top of 2-3 Karakas. I don't hate Cradles as well, since extra can be discarded to Mox Diamonds. This sort of slimmed down list does a great job of covering classic Mono-White Stax's issue of having too much mana and not enough threats. In particular, once the first Rebel is on the table, we never have to play into counter magic ever again. That sort of freedom to grind the game out is incredible. I'm going to be doing some light playtesting of this concept as I have such a thing for Stax variants.
I should have a list posted here somewhere. It was mono white, but UW is just as fine. Brainstorm and FoW are that strong in the deck. If I get a chance maybe I'll just post a list. That may make it easier.
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This should be the first list I posted here when I had a lot of ideas going through my head which should be visible. But as a starting point I think it's quite good. It's easy to cut an idea to focus on a game plan.
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I've enjoyed some success with 4 Training Grounds a few years back. I know the card looks bad, but I agree with the OP in that:
-Rebels needs the cost reduction to have the mechanic be competitive, otherwise the cards just suck
-you always want this out as early as possible, so 4 copies helps that
-the 2nd Training Grounds is not dead, making Mirror Entity better
-extra Training Grounds pitch to FoW or get buried by Brainstorm
-without Training Grounds, you'd have to run other blue cards anyway to support FoW
-the card disadvantage of it doing nothing is offset by getting free creatures
Therefore, I think there is strong benefit to having the Training Grounds out and the deck has enough tools to mitigate drawbacks of drawing too many.
Similarly, Cradle mana lets you do silly things with Mirror Entity and/or Lin-Sivvi recycling your entire deck. Though 4 Cradle may be too many.
I think with all the cantrips 2 Cradle is enough to have it when you want crazy mana without clogging up your land drops, since you don't want colorless mana that early.
Between Mistveil Plains and Lin-Sivvi, you can basically recycle your deck, giving you crazy inevitability.
With Training Grounds out, fetching a Shield Dancer in response to a Goyf attack is serious tech.
Riftwatcher is also tech against Delver decks, trading with Insectile Aberration and padding your life to make up for early damage taken.
1 or 2 Karakas could be good if in your budget, dealing with Emrakuls and nasty stuff but also protecting Lin. Tutoring Bound in Silence is another uncounterable way to deal with Emrakuls and Griselbrands and such.
There are a lot of options for the flex slots. More recruiters or utility guys can be good.
Another option is to use the flex slots for the Life Combo (1 Task Force, 1 Outrider en-Kor and then some sac outlet like Miren, the Moaning Well or Worthy Cause or Condemn). Basically with Lin-Sivvi out you EOT fetch Outrider, then untap and fetch Task Force, then without passing priority target it unlimited times (if opponent tries to kill it in response you just target it more in response), then sacrifice it to your instant speed sacrifice outlet to gain a million life. If you execute it like that and use a land as a sacrifice outlet, the combo is surprisingly resilient to disruption. The opponent either has to kill Lin-Sivvi immediately or kill Outrider or Miren before you untap. If they do, you haven't really lost any resources or tempo because you still trade 1-for-1 with their disruption effect and get to untap and do something different with your turn. You don't lose tempo or overcommit to the combo, so no big deal. If you are allowed to untap with Lin, Miren and Outrider then you have full stack control. They can kill your land or Outrider with Lin-Sivvi's 2nd search on the stack, but when the search resolves you can just dig up something better than Task Force and you haven't really lost tempo. You only have to commit to the garbage that is Task Force once they let the 2nd search resolve. Once that resolves, you don't pass priority and you can make it infinitely big and sacrifice it in response to any removal or Wastelanding they might try. In other words, once you have really committed to the combo and spent mana and a turn on Task Force, you can't really be disrupted. Stifle ruins your day, but that's about it.
Anyway, hopefully that gives you some ideas. It might be better to just run more utility in those slots instead of combo, but I like that the deck has the option to do both.
There is a reason Lin sivvi was banned. You get to recur rebels and trade efficiently. Paying mana with shield dancer means you aren't recruiting and that's not where rebels wants to be.
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There is a reason Lin sivvi was banned. You get to recur rebels and trade efficiently.
Paying mana with shield dancer means you aren't recruiting and that's not where rebels wants to be.
Not actually a problem. Think about it. Shield Dancer only enters the battlefield in one of two ways: 1) hardcast or 2) recruited.
You only hardcast if:
1a) You have no recruiters available
1b) You have mana to both hardcast and recruit something.
Otherwise the correct play with Rebels is usually to hold cards in hand and abuse your recruiters.
As for the second case, you clearly only combat-surprise-recruit it if you have mana to both recruit it and activate it in the same turn. Otherwise it can't even eat anything, so why would you get it? You'll only have mana for both if you have:
2a) recruiter + 6-7 mana (i.e. Cradle is active)
2b) recruiter + Training Grounds + 2-3 mana
In 1b, 2a and 2b you have mana to both use Lin and activate Shield Dancer so the point is moot. In 1a you don't have a Lin. Either way, there is no actual conflict in practice. It doesn't actually stop you from abusing Lin. (I guess they could later Abrupt Decay the Grounds, but they might as well just hit Lin)
Also keep in mind that having to waste a Lin tap to dig up Vanguard over and over is sometimes more of a tempo hit than spending some extra mana on Shield Dancer, depending on your board state. Dancer lets you use your recruiting to grow your board instead of just stalling for turns against their attackers.
Example--
Shield Dancer vs 2 goyfs:
turn X - recruit + activate dancer (5W mana; 1W with Training Grounds)
turn X+1 - activate dancer + recruit something else (same mana)
Vanguard vs 2 goyfs:
turn X - recruit (3 mana; 1 with Training Grounds)
turn X+1 - put on bottom + recruit (6 mana; 2 with Training Grounds)
In the end, both scenarios need the same amount of max mana available (6 or 2+Grounds) in order to grind out against more than one attacker without losing tempo. And in the first Scenario you're able to use Lin to grab a 2nd creature and develop your board, whereas in the 2nd you can't. The Vanguard scenario leaves your board behind 2 creatures over the Dancer one...
Maybe a valid counterargument for Vanguard over Shield Dancer is that it can search for Lin in a pinch (1a), or that you won't always have Training Grounds/Cradle going so Vanguard is a relevant tutor target if you just need to take out one attacker but not grind out against many. Vanguard is live in many more scenarios, which gives the deck consistency and maybe fewer conditional slots. However, to use Vanguard to kill two or more guys efficiently, it ends up being slower than Dancer. Relying on looping Vanguard also opens vulnerability to DRS and other graveyard hate.
I played this deck a few years ago when the format was more aggro (Maverick DTB), so my memory of how it played out may be biased. And I might have actually played both Shield Dancer and Vanguard in the "flex slots". Dancer was useful many times I used it, though I usually played the "Life" combo over utility slots in general, so it's possible there weren't enough games with Shield Dancer to actually notice a quality difference. Also I think Abrupt Decay wasn't printed at that time, which dramatically changes the likelihood of keeping a Training Grounds on the board.
Regardless, I want some feedback as to just how competitive all of you think this deck can be.
4x Ramosian Sergeant
2x Children of Korlis
4x Defiant Falcon
1x Ramosian Lieutenant
2x Whipcorder
2x Lin Sivvi, Defiant Hero
2x Mirror Entity
1x Defiant Vanguard
4x Training Grounds
4x Force of Will
2x Counterspell
4x Brainstorm
2x Ponder
4x Swords to Plowshares
4x Gaea's Cradle
4x Hallowed Fountain
4x Flooded Strand
6x Plains
4x Island
The deck revolves around Lin Sivvi, Defiant Hero Mirror Entity Ramosian Sergeant Defiant Falcon Gaea's Cradle and Training Grounds, while using a robust counter set and draw engine. Basically, I'm looking for (1) general impressions of the deck and (2) how competitive it can be in legacy...I don't expect it to be a Tier 1 amazing legacy deck, but if it can be reasonably competitive, I'd be happy. Also, any obvious suggestions for improvement are always welcome, too. Thanks!
-----The Legacy Flowchart-----
Tiny Leaders Overlord
As WeaponX said above, I like an E-Tutor package as well. It also lets you play singleton equipment, which is really really strong in a Tribal list like this. Without Stoneforge, I would limit to just Jitte and either Sword of Fire and Ice or Feast and Famine. SoFI is the better sword, but F&F has some lovely synergies with your list. There are, in my mind, two options here: 1) an Aether Vial based Tempo-Rebels list 2) a midrange Equipment Rebels list. Conceptually, they would look something like the following:
4x Ramosian Sergeant
2x Children of Korlis
4x Defiant Falcon
2x Ramosian Lieutenant
2x Whipcorder
2x Lin Sivvi, Defiant Hero
2x Mirror Entity
1x Defiant Vanguard
4x Aether Vial
4x Daze
4x Force of Will
Filtering(8)
4x Brainstorm
4x Ponder
Lands(21)
4x Flooded Strand
4x Polluted Delta
3x Tundra
2x Island
1x Plains
2x Cavern of Souls
1x Karakas
4x Rishadan Port
4x Ramosian Sergeant
2x Children of Korlis
4x Defiant Falcon
1x Ramosian Lieutenant
2x Whipcorder
2x Lin Sivvi, Defiant Hero
2x Mirror Entity
1x Defiant Vanguard
4x Force of Will
2x Spell Pierce
4x Swords to Plowshares
Filtering + Value(10)
4x Brainstorm
3x Enlightened Tutor
1x Training Grounds
1x Umezawa's Jitte
1x Sword of Fire and Ice
4x Flooded Strand
4x Polluted Delta
2x Misty Rainforest
3x Tundra
3x Island
2x Plains
2x Cavern of Souls
1x Karakas
1x Gaia's Cradle
In both lists, I strongly question the inclusion of Force of Will. There is a very good chance that neither deck plays enough blue cards in order to reliably cast Force. This would require some amount of play testing. Otherwise, I think either strategy is a solid one.
As far as what both of you said about Gaea's Cradle and Training Grounds, Legacy Rebels have always had two big problems being competitive.
(1) They were never powerful enough and had no good win conditions. That changed when Mirror Entity came out giving a tutorable power buff for the entire Rebel army.
(2) Rebels are so mana hungry that they were always too slow to consistently compete in Legacy. Gaea's Cradle is cute, but it basically helps function as tutorable mana every turn and then swing for the fences with Mirror Entity. Without some sort of meaningful mana ramp, Rebels are simply too slow to compete. Gaea's Cradle seems like an absolute essential in this deck. I don't know how the deck competes without it. With regards to Training Grounds, I can see how basically after two copies of it on the board, it doesn't improve tutoring for other rebels because it can't reduce recruiting costs lower than 1. So two copies of Training Grounds can only cut the Falcon to 1 to recruit the next Rebel. But it does allow for even more powerful Mirror Entity power buffs, whether it is to play offense or defense.
My question for WeaponX, is what do you suggest the build look like without Training Grounds...Mono-W, still a U/W build, or something else? And what kind of cards would you take out and put in? Is there a better ramp card that I'm missing or do you have a concept you could show me that doesn't have TG? (I ask in all sincerity and not in any sort of confrontational manner)
Thanks!
In regards to your first point: it's true that Rebels as a tribe lacks any serious finisher. It also doesn't have the self-pump of Merfolk or Goblins, nor does it have the explosive elements of Elves. That said, what it does have, is inevitability. Every Rebel can eventually find every other Rebel. As you've noted Mirror Entity does a great job of being tutorable and capable of turning all those individually weak Rebels into giant threats. I can't offer any other win conditions, except the inclusion of the Stoneforge Mystic + Equipment package. That package is not nearly as good as Mirror Entitiy however.
To address the second point: you're entirely correct that Rebels as a tribe are super mana hungry. The problem with Gaia's Cradle as a solution to this is that is a very swingy card. It has a very very high potential power level and a very low power-level floor. In essence, it's a win-more card that requires you to be ahead to be powerful. I'm not saying that effect isn't important: closing out games is a very important thing for decks to do. I am saying that it shouldn't be the only source of ramp in your list.
Therefore, I propose a somewhat radical alternative: Rebel Stompy. Using Mox Diamond, Ancient Tomb, and City of Traitors as your major mana sources really boosts the speed of the assembling Rebels. Simultaneously, you get to play Chalice of the Void and Trinisphere to protect yourself, and more importantly, your Rebels. Lightning Bolt and Swords to Plowshares do an incredibly amount of work against a deck filled with 1/1s. Obviously, this means we have to cut the 1cmc rebels, but that's quite alright as they were poor creatures anyway. Instead, we can play a full 4 copies each of Defiant Falcon, Ramosian Lieutenant, Mirror Entitiy, Whipcorder, Vanguard and 2-3 Lin Sivvi.
It even solves the mana question: a full 4 Caverns are called for, on top of 2-3 Karakas. I don't hate Cradles as well, since extra can be discarded to Mox Diamonds. This sort of slimmed down list does a great job of covering classic Mono-White Stax's issue of having too much mana and not enough threats. In particular, once the first Rebel is on the table, we never have to play into counter magic ever again. That sort of freedom to grind the game out is incredible. I'm going to be doing some light playtesting of this concept as I have such a thing for Stax variants.
-----The Legacy Flowchart-----
Tiny Leaders Overlord
4 ramosian sergeant
4 defiant falcon
2 defiant vanguard
2 children of korlis
1 nightwing glider
1 thermal glider
1 mirror entity
4 orim's chant
3 silence
The Jumble
3 rule of law
2 elspeth, knight-errant
1 emrakul, the aeons torn
3 stoneforge mystic
1 batterskull
1 sword of feast and famine
3 marsh flats
3 arid mesa
10 plains
This should be the first list I posted here when I had a lot of ideas going through my head which should be visible. But as a starting point I think it's quite good. It's easy to cut an idea to focus on a game plan.
-----The Legacy Flowchart-----
Tiny Leaders Overlord
-Rebels needs the cost reduction to have the mechanic be competitive, otherwise the cards just suck
-you always want this out as early as possible, so 4 copies helps that
-the 2nd Training Grounds is not dead, making Mirror Entity better
-extra Training Grounds pitch to FoW or get buried by Brainstorm
-without Training Grounds, you'd have to run other blue cards anyway to support FoW
-the card disadvantage of it doing nothing is offset by getting free creatures
Therefore, I think there is strong benefit to having the Training Grounds out and the deck has enough tools to mitigate drawbacks of drawing too many.
Similarly, Cradle mana lets you do silly things with Mirror Entity and/or Lin-Sivvi recycling your entire deck. Though 4 Cradle may be too many.
Try:
4 Force of Will
4 Brainstorm
4 Training Grounds
4 Swords to Plowshares
2 Ponder
3 Spell Pierce
//Core Rebels: 13
4 Ramosian Sergeant
3 Defiant Falcon
1 Ramosian Lieutenant
2 Lin Sivvi, Defiant Hero
2 Whipcorder
1 Mirror Entity
1 Children of Korlis
1 Knight of the Holy Nimbus
1 Bound in Silence
1 Aven Riftwatcher
1 Shield Dancer
1 Mirror Entity
//Lands: 20
4 Flooded Strand
2 Arid Mesa
2 Misty Rainforest
3 Tundra
1 Island
2 Plains
1 Mistveil Plains
3 Cavern of Souls
2 Gaea's Cradle
I think with all the cantrips 2 Cradle is enough to have it when you want crazy mana without clogging up your land drops, since you don't want colorless mana that early.
Between Mistveil Plains and Lin-Sivvi, you can basically recycle your deck, giving you crazy inevitability.
With Training Grounds out, fetching a Shield Dancer in response to a Goyf attack is serious tech.
Riftwatcher is also tech against Delver decks, trading with Insectile Aberration and padding your life to make up for early damage taken.
1 or 2 Karakas could be good if in your budget, dealing with Emrakuls and nasty stuff but also protecting Lin. Tutoring Bound in Silence is another uncounterable way to deal with Emrakuls and Griselbrands and such.
There are a lot of options for the flex slots. More recruiters or utility guys can be good.
Another option is to use the flex slots for the Life Combo (1 Task Force, 1 Outrider en-Kor and then some sac outlet like Miren, the Moaning Well or Worthy Cause or Condemn). Basically with Lin-Sivvi out you EOT fetch Outrider, then untap and fetch Task Force, then without passing priority target it unlimited times (if opponent tries to kill it in response you just target it more in response), then sacrifice it to your instant speed sacrifice outlet to gain a million life. If you execute it like that and use a land as a sacrifice outlet, the combo is surprisingly resilient to disruption. The opponent either has to kill Lin-Sivvi immediately or kill Outrider or Miren before you untap. If they do, you haven't really lost any resources or tempo because you still trade 1-for-1 with their disruption effect and get to untap and do something different with your turn. You don't lose tempo or overcommit to the combo, so no big deal. If you are allowed to untap with Lin, Miren and Outrider then you have full stack control. They can kill your land or Outrider with Lin-Sivvi's 2nd search on the stack, but when the search resolves you can just dig up something better than Task Force and you haven't really lost tempo. You only have to commit to the garbage that is Task Force once they let the 2nd search resolve. Once that resolves, you don't pass priority and you can make it infinitely big and sacrifice it in response to any removal or Wastelanding they might try. In other words, once you have really committed to the combo and spent mana and a turn on Task Force, you can't really be disrupted. Stifle ruins your day, but that's about it.
Anyway, hopefully that gives you some ideas. It might be better to just run more utility in those slots instead of combo, but I like that the deck has the option to do both.
-----The Legacy Flowchart-----
Tiny Leaders Overlord
Shield Dancer doesn't trade with Goyf like Vanguard does, it just straight eats it for only W. Then it can eat other stuff in subsequent turns.
-----The Legacy Flowchart-----
Tiny Leaders Overlord
Not actually a problem. Think about it. Shield Dancer only enters the battlefield in one of two ways: 1) hardcast or 2) recruited.
You only hardcast if:
1a) You have no recruiters available
1b) You have mana to both hardcast and recruit something.
Otherwise the correct play with Rebels is usually to hold cards in hand and abuse your recruiters.
As for the second case, you clearly only combat-surprise-recruit it if you have mana to both recruit it and activate it in the same turn. Otherwise it can't even eat anything, so why would you get it? You'll only have mana for both if you have:
2a) recruiter + 6-7 mana (i.e. Cradle is active)
2b) recruiter + Training Grounds + 2-3 mana
In 1b, 2a and 2b you have mana to both use Lin and activate Shield Dancer so the point is moot. In 1a you don't have a Lin. Either way, there is no actual conflict in practice. It doesn't actually stop you from abusing Lin. (I guess they could later Abrupt Decay the Grounds, but they might as well just hit Lin)
Also keep in mind that having to waste a Lin tap to dig up Vanguard over and over is sometimes more of a tempo hit than spending some extra mana on Shield Dancer, depending on your board state. Dancer lets you use your recruiting to grow your board instead of just stalling for turns against their attackers.
Example--
Shield Dancer vs 2 goyfs:
turn X - recruit + activate dancer (5W mana; 1W with Training Grounds)
turn X+1 - activate dancer + recruit something else (same mana)
Vanguard vs 2 goyfs:
turn X - recruit (3 mana; 1 with Training Grounds)
turn X+1 - put on bottom + recruit (6 mana; 2 with Training Grounds)
In the end, both scenarios need the same amount of max mana available (6 or 2+Grounds) in order to grind out against more than one attacker without losing tempo. And in the first Scenario you're able to use Lin to grab a 2nd creature and develop your board, whereas in the 2nd you can't. The Vanguard scenario leaves your board behind 2 creatures over the Dancer one...
Maybe a valid counterargument for Vanguard over Shield Dancer is that it can search for Lin in a pinch (1a), or that you won't always have Training Grounds/Cradle going so Vanguard is a relevant tutor target if you just need to take out one attacker but not grind out against many. Vanguard is live in many more scenarios, which gives the deck consistency and maybe fewer conditional slots. However, to use Vanguard to kill two or more guys efficiently, it ends up being slower than Dancer. Relying on looping Vanguard also opens vulnerability to DRS and other graveyard hate.
I played this deck a few years ago when the format was more aggro (Maverick DTB), so my memory of how it played out may be biased. And I might have actually played both Shield Dancer and Vanguard in the "flex slots". Dancer was useful many times I used it, though I usually played the "Life" combo over utility slots in general, so it's possible there weren't enough games with Shield Dancer to actually notice a quality difference. Also I think Abrupt Decay wasn't printed at that time, which dramatically changes the likelihood of keeping a Training Grounds on the board.