So if Leyline of Anticipation was added, it could all be done in two instances of milling your deck. (Once to cabal therepy four times, once more to cast dread return on Sharuum and bring back Blasting Station) you can then garentee the damage output, and avoid the slowplay call?
This would likely make the combo nearly unplayable as far as trying to win a GP or something goes. It's a dead card, it's an extra card, and is likely not worth it unless you are addicted to this deck.
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Tantarus: It didn't make the gaka greifer level, so it should be fine
Actually, you might be surprised as to how non-random certain events are. I am actually pursuing a doctorate in studying complex systems and chaos is a lot more predictable than it likes to let on.
if the order of your deck is predictable after you've shuffled then you're cheating
if the order of your deck is predictable after you've shuffled then you're cheating
Take the current order of your deck.
Now, pile shuffle it. You can know where each individual card ends up after doing this (and why this is considered insufficient randomization) so there is always a second step involved.
A lot of times, it's the simple side shuffle. Take a chunk, riffle it into the deck, continue. You can still know where each individual card ends up, but it's not nearly as exact, since some cards clump together, some don't, and yet still others haven't even moved. Predicting what every card will do when doing this form of shuffle is highly unlikely, without truly detailed information about every possible datum the card has to offer.
Now, the bridge shuffle - Generally, two stacks, bridge the gap, and fire away. You've randomized the deck, right? No, not really. You've reordered it in such a way that it appears to be random, but you're still following the obvious algorithm. Each card is going to be roughly in the same position relative to to rest of the pile, only split within another pile and of course not truly at a 1:1 ratio.
The order of the deck is always predictable, but using lots of different shuffling techniques makes it more difficult to determine the true order. As a note, there is no such thing as "true random," everything can be determined by some sort of algorithm. Ect.
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Tantarus: It didn't make the gaka greifer level, so it should be fine
I had heard about Horseman being played at a SCG open and never looked into the coverage about it. I heard that he only got 1 slow play warning the whole day and I'm curious to know how he did it. It seemed like it was something along the lines of actively playing to avoid slow play instead of just proceeding with the combo in the "normal fashion". Anyone have any info or links as to how he did it?
Manaman, it is important to understand that the common practice with this deck had been to side out the entire combo after game 1, leaving only the generic search and defense cards. In game 2, you use Show and Tell to plop down Emrakul. But it is also important to note that the deck does not actually play "slowly". Once the two pieces are in place the combo is a guarantee, unlike any storm deck, so an opponent without pertinent hate (there are very few hate cards that can do anything at all at this point) can safely scoop and go to game 2. And even when an opponent demands to see you run through it and the proper sequencing fails to come up for the first few iterations, you can still mill through several times in just a minute or two since you are only noting which cards you see as you go rather than taking any particular action. Only the shuffling takes any real time. I don't think I have ever gone over three minutes.
That is why the identification of the combo as officially "slow play" has annoyed people. But I suspect that the label is not aimed at this combo, but rather what else you can potentially do. Once your opponent agrees to let you shortcut something like "I do this until cards x, y, and z are in the graveyard before card n", you can potentially abuse it to have only a few cards left in your library, dramatically increasing your odds of topdecking a particular one. And THAT is the real problem.
I guess what gets me is that according to the judge at LA, he was fine until he was setting up Dread Return and hit Emrakul before it happened. Once he looped through without doing something, after he was out of Therapies, it was slow play and that was that. Combine that with any player worth his salt will most likely call a judge as soon as they see the Monolith, I still don't see how he got through 8 or 9 rounds with only 1 judge call. Playing this particular combo for ~1/2 to 1/3 of the time most certainly helps, but is there more to the finer points of executing the combo that can reduce the likelihood of the "slow play call"? I get that other than shuffling, the deck actually moves rather quickly, but playing it seems like an invitation for escalating penalties. May having someone manage to "successfully" play it at a large event is giving me a lot of false hope. Any having any luck in local venues?
I stopped playing at as soon as the rules changed. I think that the pilot just did not know that the deck was illegal. Well, there may be something you can do though. You can decide to not put all your Narcos on the battlefield right away. You could potentially go through the deck eight times this way. Once for each Moeba, and once for each Cabal Therapy you sacrifice one to. I never really thought about doing that before, but eight iterations is actually quite a few.
As long as you are changing the gamestate each time, this just might work. How homosexual is that though? You have to play slug slow to avoid a slow play call.
I stopped playing at as soon as the rules changed. I think that the pilot just did not know that the deck was illegal. Well, there may be something you can do though. You can decide to not put all your Narcos on the battlefield right away. You could potentially go through the deck eight times this way. Once for each Moeba, and once for each Cabal Therapy you sacrifice one to. I never really thought about doing that before, but eight iterations is actually quite a few.
As long as you are changing the gamestate each time, this just might work. How homosexual is that though? You have to play slug slow to avoid a slow play call.
That certainly does get around the letter of the slow play rules. It does feel really backwards to purposefully avoid shortcutting. Assume that you do cycle through the deck once for each Moeba and Therapy, or even one Moeba and Therapy in tandem with a casting. What do you do to avoid slow play while trying to set up the Dread Return? All I can think of is spreading out the subsequent Moeba's while trying to get the 3-card set we need. Still seems like a long shot to avoid a "slow play call" from then on.
I don't know. I almost feel like saying "screw it" and playing this this weekend just to see how it goes. Probably a bad idea, but it's such a fun deck to play.
Honestly, I'm wondering if he was able to play at the SCG because his opponents didn't know the ruling on slow play. The announcers, his opponent, 80% of the Twitch chat, and possibly even the table judge (it looks like another judge came over to make the call) all didn't know that you could practically raise your hand, say "Judge", and win game 1.
Being played on camera and getting exposure is probably the worst thing that could've happened to this deck. Everyone's seen it now, and everyone knows it is slow play, even if they don't know why it's slow play.
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Afro Dave, @st4rwind on Twitter
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I know it's been mentioned before, but would swapping the DR and Blasting Station and the sphinx for 3 Bridge from Below remove the slow play?
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"It's actually quite simple, but since you've only recently begun to walk upright, it may take some time to explain."
—Jace Beleren, to Garruk Wildspeaker
Nope. To get Bridge active, you need sac outlets, and the deck's only sac outlet would now be Cabal Therapy. Unfortunately, that's a sorcery, so you can't cast it in response to Narco triggers if you mill Emrakul before any Therapys. Sadly, there is a slim but nonzero chance that the first card you mill every single time is Emrakul, so it still counts as slow play.
This list in the opening post seems sorta hilarious if you replace Emrakul, Blasting Station, and Sharuum with Laboratory Maniac, Azami, and Angel of Glory's Rise. Cutting something else (thoughtseize?) allows you to play something along the lines of Teferi as an extra human to rise up with Azami and Lab Man. Further, your sb plan can stay roughly the same or switch into multiple copies of Lab Maniac + Thought Lash (ignoring the graveyard requirement).
The best part is that you begin your combo by announcing that you want to mill yourself until you flip Emrakul.
Why not replace emrakul with something like DS colossus and add bridge from belows. seems like it still works just fine...maybe use careful study to pitch the bridges ect.
Is there a way to make this actually consistent with inverter of truth? Rather than play emrakul you just make a loop with inverter, get a ton of zombies(with a single bridge from below)(first loop you sacrifice a narco to a therapy and the res inverter of truth) and then you kill them with a hasty dude from the grave (so you need 1 bridge, 2 dread return, 4 narcos + flame kin zealot). great part about the combo is that you only can double cabal therapy on the lead up because invert of truth + 7 zombies with +1/+1 is still lethal. Yes, it uses the combat step so it doesn't win at instant speed, but it seems like a good idea.
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Modern: Modern is Bad
Legacy:WDeath and TaxesW W45-L16-D11 8 Top 8s 15th Scg Oakland
Current Kiln Fiend Count: 153 Please message me if you want to trade me or give me some.
Commission Rezombied to alter some cards, he's awesome!
It's been a while since this deck has seen some postings, but I'm genuinely interested in it. I've playtested it a few times on Cockatrice and I'd like to know if anyone is still playing it. Obviously Magic has changed a lot since 2011. Are there any new additions and tools from recent sets?
Unfortunately the concept of the deck and what made it good (cabal therapy 3 times gaurentee without passing priority) is still defined as slow play:
"It is also slow play if a player continues to execute a loop without being able to provide an exact number of iterations and the expected resulting game state."
Ie: Milling your deck woth Emrakul in it until your graveyard is permutation XYZ.
I still think a deck that orbs itself out to loop inverters is good but not much better than the current no-spells dredge or reanimator strategies.
Although you might be ae to do some funky stuff with KCI and Mirror of Fate.
Ok, so yeah, if anyone actually ends up reading this, I figured it out. This doesn't COMPLETELY fix the Slow Play issue. However, there are ways to try and work around it.
So, when you have your combo, you go through your deck 1 card at a time, and you hit a Narcomoeba, in this case before an Emrakul, the Aeons Torn. With that trigger on the stack from Narc, you keep going until there is a Cabal Therapy in your graveyard, at which point you let the Narc trigger resolve and hit the field, then maintain priority and sacrifice it to Flashback the Therapy targeting your opponent. Then let's say you do hit an Emrakul once you resume milling. You let the Emrakul trigger resolve, shuffling your Narc into your library. You keep going until you have Flashbacked enough Therapies that you don't care what's in their hand and any combo pieces in your hand got discarded to your Therapies that were targeting yourself. Then you mill until you have your combo in your graveyard (probably after multiple shuffles after running into Emrakul) and Narcs in play to sac with Dread Return. You target either Sharuum the Hegemon or Sidisi, Brood Tyrant with Dread Return. If you have Sharuum, you bring back a Blasting Station with the ETB ability. Now you can can say "I'll mill my whole deck, declining any Narc triggers and when I hit Emrakul I'll keep milling" if you have Sidisi and get 5 zombies (or however many creatures you have in your deck), then the Emrakul trigger resolves, and you do it again, shortcutting an infinite number of times and you have an army of 2/2 Zombies. If you're on Sharuum, you say "I'll mill my deck one at a time letting Narc triggers resolve, and once they resolve I'll sac them to Blasting Station until I hit Emrakul. Then I'll respond to Emrakul's shuffle trigger and mill the rest of my deck, so the Narc triggers return them to play before Emrakul's trigger happens. As they hit the field, I'll sacrifice them to Blasting Station before the Emrakul trigger resolves. Then my graveyard shuffles and I'll do it again" so you have a definite loop there which you announce and say you're doing X times until your opponent is dead, each loop dealing 4 damage (unless a Narc got exiled somehow).
That is how the combo works. Super lengthy. Well, you can't do it because you have to advance the board state in between each iteration of the Orb+Monolith combo until you hit Emrakul, otherwise you will violate the Slow Play rules for going to the same boardstate as before you made the action. To solve this, you simply have to advance the board state each iteration. This means either comboing and killing them, having a Narc etb, or flashing back a Cabal Therapy.
Previously, if you hit an Emrakul before getting to have a Narc etb hold priority and flashback a Therapy, you'd just shuffle your library with the Narc trigger still on the stack. Now, you have to keep milling in response (unless it's the first iteration) until you hit a Narc, have that ETB resolve first and change the boardstate, then have your graveyard shuffle. Now you mill all over again, normally getting a Slow Play warning, but you're allowed because you had a Narc etb.
You let a Narc trigger resolve only under a few circumstances: You milled the Emrakul and you're milling past for the Narc to change the boardstate, you have a Cabal Therapy to flashback also in your graveyard so you resolve it hold priority and flashback, or you have the combo out and you need them to resolve to flashback your Dread Return, or you have seen all 4 Narcs and there are none left in your library and you haven't hit Emrakul yet.
This is necessary because you need as many chances to shuffle without breaking the Slow Play rule as possible. Each iteration (except the first) you must either have a Narc ETB or flashback a Cabal Therapy. This gives you a limited number of shuffles, but it is as good as it gets.
Is Viscera Seer a valid way to dodge the "indeterminate loop" problem?
Step 1: Mill your entire library, having all Narco enter the battlefield (resolve each as it is milled), and let Emmy shuffle the (empty-of-Narco) library.
Step 2: Use Viscera Seer to sacrifice each Narco and put the "Scry 1" abilities on the stack.
Step 3: Mill until Emmy reshuffles all Narcos.
Step 4: Repeat Steps 1-2-3 until at least 60x "Scry 1" abilities are on the stack; then do Step 1 (leaving all Narcos on battlefield, an empty grave, and a freshly shuffled library).
Step 5: Resolve all "Scry 1" abilities, putting the top card on bottom until Emmy is put on bottom, then keep the top card on top until all "Scry 1" resolve.
Step 6: Mill the entire library minus one (keep Emmy as last in library). Because all "Scry 1" were allowed to resolve the stack is empty; Cabal Therapy spells can be flashback cast.
Step 7: Repeat Steps 1-2-3-4-5, then mill everything minus Emmy. Because all "Scry 1" were allowed to resolve the stack is empty; flashback Dread Return for Sharum grabbing Blasting Station.
Step 8: Blasting/Narco/Emmy loop for the kill.
As far as I understand, this loop is no longer indeterminate. Accumulating 60x "Scry 1" triggers will take precisely 15x loops (using 4x Narco; 20x loops with 3x Narco) no matter the random order of the cards in any loop. Floating X "Scry 1" triggers on the stack should dodge slow play just as well as any other loop used to float X mana. After that point, resolving the "Scry 1" triggers guarantees Emmy on bottom, which guarantees Cabal Therapy or Dread Return can be cast at sorcery speed, with no need to evoke the "Emmy will eventually be the last card of my library with 100% certainty for large-N" statistical argument.
The only thing I'm a little shakey on is whether Steps 1, 2 or 3 in isolation might count as slow play, which would take the whole house of cards down.
It works just fine. Having any sac outlet works. Just a card that can do a thing with the Narcs. Seer, being vulnerable, is a good option, but is it better than just having the blasting station in your deck as a 4 of As has been said earlier, this makes it a three card combo where not all the pieces are put in after your opponent is guaranteed to have nothing you care about in hand. There are simply far better 3 card combo options.
However, it's not a guaranteed loop. Sure, it's sorta guaranteed if you say I'll do it infinite times until Emmy would be at the bottom, but the thing is that's not actually true. Just the chances of it never happening are infinitely small but still possible so you can't guarantee that outcome and it's not a loop. Plus you can't define each step to getting there.
Also, guys, doing it my way up above, you have a max of 12 iterations of the combo before you get called on slow play, and more likely 8-10. So, going by even numbers for the 2 card combo with Sidisi and the 3 card combo with Sharuum+Blasting Station, your chances of fizzling on each:
Sidisi chance of failure per iteration (2/3)
Sharuum chance of failure per iteration (3/4)
Sharuum first:
6: 17.8%
8: 10.0%
10: 5.6%
12: 3.2%
It gets acceptable once you're below about 10% if you ask me, so this is *barely* acceptable.
Sidisi:
6: 8.8%
8: 3.9%
10: 1.7%
12: 0.8%
WOW that's a lot better! Amazing what 8% chance increase per iteration has!
So, how much worse is Sidisi than Blasting Station?
Well, Sidisi has several vulnerabilities: Dies to topdecked sweepers, if your opponent has JtMS out, they get 2 cards which can be enough to combo off and kill you, etc. It may not be the greatest chance for your opponent to win (unless they have lethal on board) but I don't know how that compares to the chances of slow play with Blasting Station. So, my personal suggestion is that if you're playing at a Regular REL event, use Station as they are supposed to relax on competitive judging rules, and if at something competitive, make your best judgement call.
Nother thought: Splash red for Lava Dart? We're only 2 colors atm so we can sorta afford it. It gives you an extra iteration, maybe 2 depending on how many mountains you have. It's an instant even.
Edit: If you hit your Narc, it's 2 more iterations.
Hey, so I got the itch to look into Four Horsemen again after seeing some new cards out of the latest few sets, but nothing new seemed to improve things much.
I did revisit the math on adding Viscera Seer to the deck, though, and I think it looks promising.
If Emmy is first: 120 fails, 0 successes. - The remaining five cards {BDdSV} have 5!=120 possible ways to be ordered, but none of it matters since Emmy was first.
If Emmy is second: 120 fails, 0 successes. - The other five cards can be split a bunch of ways {B}{DdSV} gives 1!4!=24 ways, {D}{BdSV} gives 1!4! too, {d}{BDSV}, {S}{BDdV}, and {V}{BDdS}. Together that's 5(1!4!)=120 failures, since there's no way to get both Dread Return and a target in front of Emrakul if Emmy is the second card flipped.
If Emmy is third: 96 fails, 24 successes. - Again, there are 120 ways to order the non-Emmy cards, and again most of those orders fail. However, Viscera Seer + Dread Return will succeed and can do so with only two cards; it can occur either as {VD}{BdS} or {Vd}{BDS} which can each occur 2!3!=12 ways.
If Emmy is fourth: 36 fails, 84 successes. - Again, there are 120 ways to order the non-Emmy cards, but this time most of those orders can succeed and in fact it'll be easier to count the failures than the successes. The only way that we can get 3/5 of our non-Emmy cards and not get either Viscera+Dread or Sharuum+Dread+Blasting is by not getting Dread Return or by getting two Dread Return without Viscera Seer. That's {BSV}{Dd} 3!2!=12 failures, {BDd}{SV} 3!2!=12 fails, and {DdS}{BV} 3!2!=12 failures.
If Emmy is fifth: 0 fails, 120 successes. - If you have a Viscera Seer in your top four, then you're guaranteed at least one of the two copies of Dread Return is above Emmy; if Viscera Seer is the only under-Emmy card, then you're guaranteed Sharumm with a Blasting Station and two Dread Returns above Emmy.
If Emmy is fifth: 0 fails, 120 successes. - If Emmy is the bottom card you can do whatever you want at sorcery speed.
Grand total that's 348 successful stacks out of the total 720 possible stacks, for 48.3% odds of hitting a good stack from a randomized deck. It's not amazing, but it's definitely an improvement over the traditional 25% odds of stacking {BDS}E from {BDES}.
Also important for the discussion of increasing dead cards:
BDES: 25% odds. - Playing the old combo without any additional pieces has the fewest dead cards but the lowest non-zero success odds.
BbDES: 30% odds. - Doubling up on any single combo piece adds a potential dead card to the deck but boosts the success rate by 5%.
BbDdES: 36.6% odds. - Doubling up on any two different combo pieces raises odds by 6.6% with two dead cards.
BbDdESs: 45.7% odds. - Doubling up on all three combo pieces raises the odds by a further ~9% but with a total three dead cards.
BDdESV: 48.3% odds. - Adding Viscera Seer and a second Dread Return does more with two dead cards than doubling up every combo piece does with three.
tl;dr - Adding a second Dread Return to the deck along with a single Viscera Seer raises the odds of a randomized deck giving a successful stack of milled combo pieces from 25% to 48.3% for the cost of two "dead" cards. This is even better than the ~46% odds that running 2xSharuum+2xDread+2xBlasting would give.
The low manacost on Viscera Seer also makes it fairly easy to hardcast, so it's not the worst spell to have in hand either.
Ant the combo will now be deterministic. Mill everything, get 4 narcos, dread return Sharuum, get Desecrated Tomb, mill Dread or Guile 20 times, get 20 Bats with Haste thanks to Anger, attack for the win. Unburial Rites is there as a protection measure for the Dread Return, same with Sun Titan
If you add 4x Ancient Tomb and 1x of Mountain and 1x Plain (dual most likely) the rest of the deck is completely free to explore. You could go basically all out on search and counterspells with:
Force of Will
Spell Pierce
Brainstorm
Careful Study (To remove graveyard things from hand)
Ponder
And even add 4x Fragmentize in the SB which basically deals with most permanent forms of graveyard hate. You can also easily splash anything that is Blue, Red, White and Black, which will also allow you to cast Unburial Rites from hand.
Maybe that will be a new deck and not Four Horseman, but it is a cool new idea anyway. I call it Four Batman!
I dunno if anyone reads this thread anymore, but there have been a couple interesting printings over the last few years that seem potentially good for the deck (even if all "Slow Play" rules are still in full effect).
Syr Konrad, the Grim replaces the Sharuum+Station combo with a single card; thereby increasing the odds of milling a properly-ordered library from the 25% odds for {BS,DR,StH}{Emmy} up to 33% odds for {DR,SKtG}{Emmy} on a per-loop/per-attempt basis.
Teferi, Time Raveler is a planeswalker that does most of what Leyline of Anticipation offers, but with some added bounce flexibility, Force/Surgical protection, and a lower mid-game casting cost.
Creeping Chill which, while useless to our infinite-damage loop, can give another free 1-loop reroll around "Slow Play" rules.
Karn, the Great Creator can function as both a combo tutor or silver-bullet tutor (depending on sideboard) in addition to being a 1-way Null Rod.
And there are probably many other options, depending on how far afield you want to go, but the above all seem to be mostly on-plan. No clue if any of this is enough to overcome the "pseudo-Fizzle" odds that the "Slow Play" rules have introduced to the deck, however.
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Warning for saying "Combat Math."
Game-loss for uttering "Hold on, I need to count."
This would likely make the combo nearly unplayable as far as trying to win a GP or something goes. It's a dead card, it's an extra card, and is likely not worth it unless you are addicted to this deck.
EDH:
RNorin the WaryR <-Link! (Primer - Mono Red Control)
GUEdric, Spymaster of TrestUG <- Link! (Mini-Primer - Dredge)
Duel Commander:
WUGeist of Saint TraftUW <- Link! (Aggro-Control)
BGSkullbriar, the Walking GraveGB <- Link! (Aggro)
BUGDamia, Sage of StoneGUB <- Link! (Extinction Control)
Church of the Wary
if the order of your deck is predictable after you've shuffled then you're cheating
Take the current order of your deck.
Now, pile shuffle it. You can know where each individual card ends up after doing this (and why this is considered insufficient randomization) so there is always a second step involved.
A lot of times, it's the simple side shuffle. Take a chunk, riffle it into the deck, continue. You can still know where each individual card ends up, but it's not nearly as exact, since some cards clump together, some don't, and yet still others haven't even moved. Predicting what every card will do when doing this form of shuffle is highly unlikely, without truly detailed information about every possible datum the card has to offer.
Now, the bridge shuffle - Generally, two stacks, bridge the gap, and fire away. You've randomized the deck, right? No, not really. You've reordered it in such a way that it appears to be random, but you're still following the obvious algorithm. Each card is going to be roughly in the same position relative to to rest of the pile, only split within another pile and of course not truly at a 1:1 ratio.
The order of the deck is always predictable, but using lots of different shuffling techniques makes it more difficult to determine the true order. As a note, there is no such thing as "true random," everything can be determined by some sort of algorithm. Ect.
EDH:
RNorin the WaryR <-Link! (Primer - Mono Red Control)
GUEdric, Spymaster of TrestUG <- Link! (Mini-Primer - Dredge)
Duel Commander:
WUGeist of Saint TraftUW <- Link! (Aggro-Control)
BGSkullbriar, the Walking GraveGB <- Link! (Aggro)
BUGDamia, Sage of StoneGUB <- Link! (Extinction Control)
Church of the Wary
That is why the identification of the combo as officially "slow play" has annoyed people. But I suspect that the label is not aimed at this combo, but rather what else you can potentially do. Once your opponent agrees to let you shortcut something like "I do this until cards x, y, and z are in the graveyard before card n", you can potentially abuse it to have only a few cards left in your library, dramatically increasing your odds of topdecking a particular one. And THAT is the real problem.
As long as you are changing the gamestate each time, this just might work. How homosexual is that though? You have to play slug slow to avoid a slow play call.
That certainly does get around the letter of the slow play rules. It does feel really backwards to purposefully avoid shortcutting. Assume that you do cycle through the deck once for each Moeba and Therapy, or even one Moeba and Therapy in tandem with a casting. What do you do to avoid slow play while trying to set up the Dread Return? All I can think of is spreading out the subsequent Moeba's while trying to get the 3-card set we need. Still seems like a long shot to avoid a "slow play call" from then on.
I don't know. I almost feel like saying "screw it" and playing this this weekend just to see how it goes. Probably a bad idea, but it's such a fun deck to play.
Being played on camera and getting exposure is probably the worst thing that could've happened to this deck. Everyone's seen it now, and everyone knows it is slow play, even if they don't know why it's slow play.
Afro Dave, @st4rwind on Twitter
Level 2 Judge
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- Rockman WBG
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—Jace Beleren, to Garruk Wildspeaker
The best part is that you begin your combo by announcing that you want to mill yourself until you flip Emrakul.
Gfast animals slow shildrenG
51-18-4 (retired as of 6-4-11)
Legacy:WDeath and TaxesW W45-L16-D11 8 Top 8s 15th Scg Oakland
Current Kiln Fiend Count: 153 Please message me if you want to trade me or give me some.
Commission Rezombied to alter some cards, he's awesome!
"It is also slow play if a player continues to execute a loop without being able to provide an exact number of iterations and the expected resulting game state."
Ie: Milling your deck woth Emrakul in it until your graveyard is permutation XYZ.
I still think a deck that orbs itself out to loop inverters is good but not much better than the current no-spells dredge or reanimator strategies.
Although you might be ae to do some funky stuff with KCI and Mirror of Fate.
So you end up with the Mesmeric Orb+Basalt Monolith combo and can mill through your deck. Using the ruling on here: http://starcitygames.com/events/coverage/deck_tech_four_horsemen_with_j.html he couldn't execute his loop due to breaking the Slow Play rule. However, in that article it also says that you can get around this by advancing the board state. I'll get to this later.
So, when you have your combo, you go through your deck 1 card at a time, and you hit a Narcomoeba, in this case before an Emrakul, the Aeons Torn. With that trigger on the stack from Narc, you keep going until there is a Cabal Therapy in your graveyard, at which point you let the Narc trigger resolve and hit the field, then maintain priority and sacrifice it to Flashback the Therapy targeting your opponent. Then let's say you do hit an Emrakul once you resume milling. You let the Emrakul trigger resolve, shuffling your Narc into your library. You keep going until you have Flashbacked enough Therapies that you don't care what's in their hand and any combo pieces in your hand got discarded to your Therapies that were targeting yourself. Then you mill until you have your combo in your graveyard (probably after multiple shuffles after running into Emrakul) and Narcs in play to sac with Dread Return. You target either Sharuum the Hegemon or Sidisi, Brood Tyrant with Dread Return. If you have Sharuum, you bring back a Blasting Station with the ETB ability. Now you can can say "I'll mill my whole deck, declining any Narc triggers and when I hit Emrakul I'll keep milling" if you have Sidisi and get 5 zombies (or however many creatures you have in your deck), then the Emrakul trigger resolves, and you do it again, shortcutting an infinite number of times and you have an army of 2/2 Zombies. If you're on Sharuum, you say "I'll mill my deck one at a time letting Narc triggers resolve, and once they resolve I'll sac them to Blasting Station until I hit Emrakul. Then I'll respond to Emrakul's shuffle trigger and mill the rest of my deck, so the Narc triggers return them to play before Emrakul's trigger happens. As they hit the field, I'll sacrifice them to Blasting Station before the Emrakul trigger resolves. Then my graveyard shuffles and I'll do it again" so you have a definite loop there which you announce and say you're doing X times until your opponent is dead, each loop dealing 4 damage (unless a Narc got exiled somehow).
That is how the combo works. Super lengthy. Well, you can't do it because you have to advance the board state in between each iteration of the Orb+Monolith combo until you hit Emrakul, otherwise you will violate the Slow Play rules for going to the same boardstate as before you made the action. To solve this, you simply have to advance the board state each iteration. This means either comboing and killing them, having a Narc etb, or flashing back a Cabal Therapy.
Previously, if you hit an Emrakul before getting to have a Narc etb hold priority and flashback a Therapy, you'd just shuffle your library with the Narc trigger still on the stack. Now, you have to keep milling in response (unless it's the first iteration) until you hit a Narc, have that ETB resolve first and change the boardstate, then have your graveyard shuffle. Now you mill all over again, normally getting a Slow Play warning, but you're allowed because you had a Narc etb.
You let a Narc trigger resolve only under a few circumstances: You milled the Emrakul and you're milling past for the Narc to change the boardstate, you have a Cabal Therapy to flashback also in your graveyard so you resolve it hold priority and flashback, or you have the combo out and you need them to resolve to flashback your Dread Return, or you have seen all 4 Narcs and there are none left in your library and you haven't hit Emrakul yet.
This is necessary because you need as many chances to shuffle without breaking the Slow Play rule as possible. Each iteration (except the first) you must either have a Narc ETB or flashback a Cabal Therapy. This gives you a limited number of shuffles, but it is as good as it gets.
Step 1: Mill your entire library, having all Narco enter the battlefield (resolve each as it is milled), and let Emmy shuffle the (empty-of-Narco) library.
Step 2: Use Viscera Seer to sacrifice each Narco and put the "Scry 1" abilities on the stack.
Step 3: Mill until Emmy reshuffles all Narcos.
Step 4: Repeat Steps 1-2-3 until at least 60x "Scry 1" abilities are on the stack; then do Step 1 (leaving all Narcos on battlefield, an empty grave, and a freshly shuffled library).
Step 5: Resolve all "Scry 1" abilities, putting the top card on bottom until Emmy is put on bottom, then keep the top card on top until all "Scry 1" resolve.
Step 6: Mill the entire library minus one (keep Emmy as last in library). Because all "Scry 1" were allowed to resolve the stack is empty; Cabal Therapy spells can be flashback cast.
Step 7: Repeat Steps 1-2-3-4-5, then mill everything minus Emmy. Because all "Scry 1" were allowed to resolve the stack is empty; flashback Dread Return for Sharum grabbing Blasting Station.
Step 8: Blasting/Narco/Emmy loop for the kill.
As far as I understand, this loop is no longer indeterminate. Accumulating 60x "Scry 1" triggers will take precisely 15x loops (using 4x Narco; 20x loops with 3x Narco) no matter the random order of the cards in any loop. Floating X "Scry 1" triggers on the stack should dodge slow play just as well as any other loop used to float X mana. After that point, resolving the "Scry 1" triggers guarantees Emmy on bottom, which guarantees Cabal Therapy or Dread Return can be cast at sorcery speed, with no need to evoke the "Emmy will eventually be the last card of my library with 100% certainty for large-N" statistical argument.
The only thing I'm a little shakey on is whether Steps 1, 2 or 3 in isolation might count as slow play, which would take the whole house of cards down.
However, it's not a guaranteed loop. Sure, it's sorta guaranteed if you say I'll do it infinite times until Emmy would be at the bottom, but the thing is that's not actually true. Just the chances of it never happening are infinitely small but still possible so you can't guarantee that outcome and it's not a loop. Plus you can't define each step to getting there.
Sidisi chance of failure per iteration (2/3)
Sharuum chance of failure per iteration (3/4)
Sharuum first:
6: 17.8%
8: 10.0%
10: 5.6%
12: 3.2%
It gets acceptable once you're below about 10% if you ask me, so this is *barely* acceptable.
Sidisi:
6: 8.8%
8: 3.9%
10: 1.7%
12: 0.8%
WOW that's a lot better! Amazing what 8% chance increase per iteration has!
So, how much worse is Sidisi than Blasting Station?
Well, Sidisi has several vulnerabilities: Dies to topdecked sweepers, if your opponent has JtMS out, they get 2 cards which can be enough to combo off and kill you, etc. It may not be the greatest chance for your opponent to win (unless they have lethal on board) but I don't know how that compares to the chances of slow play with Blasting Station. So, my personal suggestion is that if you're playing at a Regular REL event, use Station as they are supposed to relax on competitive judging rules, and if at something competitive, make your best judgement call.
Edit: If you hit your Narc, it's 2 more iterations.
I did revisit the math on adding Viscera Seer to the deck, though, and I think it looks promising.
Also important for the discussion of increasing dead cards:
The low manacost on Viscera Seer also makes it fairly easy to hardcast, so it's not the worst spell to have in hand either.
We can have a package of something like:
Combo (20 cards)
Battlefield:
4x Basalt Monolith
4x Mesmeric Orb
Graveyard:
4x Narcomoeba
1x Anger
1x Desecrated Tomb
1x Dread
1x Dread Return
1x Guile
1x Sharuum the Hegemon
1x Unburial Rites
1x Sun Titan
Ant the combo will now be deterministic. Mill everything, get 4 narcos, dread return Sharuum, get Desecrated Tomb, mill Dread or Guile 20 times, get 20 Bats with Haste thanks to Anger, attack for the win. Unburial Rites is there as a protection measure for the Dread Return, same with Sun Titan
If you add 4x Ancient Tomb and 1x of Mountain and 1x Plain (dual most likely) the rest of the deck is completely free to explore. You could go basically all out on search and counterspells with:
Force of Will
Spell Pierce
Brainstorm
Careful Study (To remove graveyard things from hand)
Ponder
And even add 4x Fragmentize in the SB which basically deals with most permanent forms of graveyard hate. You can also easily splash anything that is Blue, Red, White and Black, which will also allow you to cast Unburial Rites from hand.
Maybe that will be a new deck and not Four Horseman, but it is a cool new idea anyway. I call it Four Batman!