So I've been running the NO Elves package for a while now, and I used to have some very good success with it. Recently though, as most of those players can attest, something seems to be missing. Progenitus just doesn't have the impact that he used to (with the recent showings of Phyrexian Metamorph, Ensnaring Bridge, and the like). Even without these cards, an opposing Batterskull can painfully reduce his clock. Even so, these Elf builds lack the control aspect that stops Combo decks like Hive Mind and such. So, I started to think of how a mono-green deck with outrageous ramping possibilities could address these problems. Here is what I came up with:
The basic idea is to drop Winter Orb and Trinisphere supplemented by Wasteland to kill your opponents mana base, while taking advantage of this with Gaea's Cradle, Garruk Wildspeaker, and the obscene mana Elves can make. Trinisphere could be Thorn of Amethyst, but the former is obviously the more powerful single drop and only really affects a few cards in the deck (Llanowar Elves, Fyndhorn Elves), which are really dead anyways after the first couple turns. It maintains the possible T4 goldfish that Elves is capable of, with the added benefit of screwing your opponents to really get a board presence and excel at the midgame.
Sideboard (very tentative)
My Sideboard is really what I'm having the most trouble with, as my Matchup Analysis is fairly shaky. What I have so far is:
Problems to Address:Iona, Shield of Emeria, Blazing Archon Pre-board:Trinisphere and Winter Orb are really what gives you a chance here, as they can slow your opponent down long enough to swarm them (a benefit you don't really get with NO). Post-board:Beast Within for Blazing Archon, Phyrexian Metamorph for Iona. Provided you can fight through the counters to kill these guys, swarming shouldn't be much of a problem.
Hive Mind:(the main reason for the disruption)
Problems to Address:Emrakul, the Aeons Torn, Pacts Pre-board: This is where Trinisphere and Winter Orb shine. If you can get these bad boys down, the time it takes for them to recover is more than enough for you to swarm. Post-board: You now have the added benefit of Beast Within/Krosan Grip, and Phyrexian Metamorph. Other than that I don't see it being much different than G1.
Merfolk:(the big ?)
Problems to Address: Elves thrived on these little blue dudes before, as Elves are faster and don't care about the occasional counter. However, G1 is much harder now that your disruption does very, very little. Pre-board: In theory you can still outrace them. Trinisphere does what it does against FoW, but mana disruption does little against a resolved Aether Vial. Post-board: Obviosly, Winter Orb comes out. I'm not entirely sold on what cards to board in, but some that come to mind are Pithing Needle for Aether Vial (in which case Winter Orb may not lose all effectiveness), Beast Within to stop Coralhelm Commander, and, possibly, Tsunami just to really get that guy's face red. This is the MU I'm having the most trouble addressing.
TES
Problems to Address: Not really any. With Trinisphere and Winter Orb in the Main Deck, you've got this MU pretty covered, something no other variation of Elves can really say. Pre-board: Rush Trinisphere ASAP, and go to G2. Post-board: Your answers can be addressed, but now you can also bring in Null Rod, Gaddock Teeg, etc. to really put the hate on.
Dredge
Problems to Address: Another MU Elves has always struggled against. Iona, Shield of Imeria comes into play again. Pre-board: You should be able to bust out a Trinisphere and call game. There's very little a Dredge player can do G1 against that, as Ichorid alone will not be fast enough. Post-board: They'll board some answers, but so can you. Gaddock Teeg and Phyrexian Metamorph help a lot here.
Zoo
Problems to Address: They can be very fast and have spot removal, making landing a Trinisphere quite hard. Pre-board: I personally have had good success with this, although this may be luck. With a Trinisphere and/or Winter Orb online, you can outpace them. Post-board: They'll bring in some Krosan Grips, and there's really not much you can do about it. However, Trinisphere and Winter Orb are still bombs, and they can and will win you this MU.
Stoneforge.dec
Problems to Address:Batterskull, Sword of Feast and Famine Pre-board:Trinisphere and Winter Orb can help you slow them down, but Stoneforge get's around them just like Aether Vial does. GSZ for Viridian Shaman to blow Batterskull can single handedly win you this game though. Post-board: Winter Orb and Trinisphere don't work as well here, but Beast Within, Krosan Grip, and Null Rod do. If you can keep a Batterskull from getting out of hand, you should be able to race them.
There are some things i do not understand in your list:
Arbor elf over lanowars -> Arbor is strictly inferior in this list as you run non forests and dont run anything like wild growth. Lawnmowers and Fyndhorn should be maxed before using him.
Sylvan messenger -> Probably not great as it could be. You do have 20 lands and 13 non elf cards. Goblins basically run 40/20 just to max their ringleaders, and you can't do that. Probably would drop for more lords.
3 trinisphere -> Its the part of your combo you need to hit. Why only 3? If anything i would go as far as to say its more important than the orb because it stops non land mana sources as well as making cheap stuff more costly. Fish shrugs off winter orb with vial and free counters, trinisphere messes its whole day up.
1 Quirion Ranger -> Seems like this works better with your combo than almost anything else. Probably want to maximize these.
utility elves -> you have 4 GSZ. Probably woudl run a few more 1 ofs that provide utility.
Nettle / Heritage package -> Maybe its not right for this list, not sure, but it damn well feels strong.
Were I run this list, i think i would want something like this:
This rounds out the bad MU's that I've come across. Most other MU's are very winnable. Not sure if Null Rods are necessary, we'll see.
Thorn of Amethyst vs. Trinisphere: I'm still not sure. Trinisphere is such a bomb against so many things, but a lot of the really bad cards for this deck (S&T, NO) are 3cmc or more anyways, and Thorn affects all of those. It would kill the Zoo MU though.
Arbor Elves are better than Fyndhorn in this list, as you can potentially untap a land under Winter Orb to "store" mana. It won't happen often at all (I think I've done it once or twice in all my games testing) but the potential for this makes Arbor Elves strictly better. You will never have a creature in play and no forests unless you made a poor Quirion Ranger choice or are facing Sinkhole, which I haven't seen in forever.
Sylvan Messenger has been disappointing in that you send crucial lock pieces to the bottom of your library. I'm actually testing Harmonize, and it's not too shabby. It doesn't give you the body that Messenger gives you, but it draws you cards with more consistency and often more quality. I don't, however, know if it outclasses Elvish Visionary or not. If I run Elvish Visionary, it also might not be a bad idea to include Wirewood Symbiote as a 1-of.
i run my elves with 4x tangle wire and 3x plow under... i feel that you are doing a very similar thing here.
I agree we are trying to do something similar, but I think in the format Winter Orb and Trinisphere are better than Tangle Wire and Plow Under. Tangle Wire hurts you too much (tapping down elves most likely) and Plow Under is a bit too one-and-done.
The Deck
So I've been running the NO Elves package for a while now, and I used to have some very good success with it. Recently though, as most of those players can attest, something seems to be missing. Progenitus just doesn't have the impact that he used to (with the recent showings of Phyrexian Metamorph, Ensnaring Bridge, and the like). Even without these cards, an opposing Batterskull can painfully reduce his clock. Even so, these Elf builds lack the control aspect that stops Combo decks like Hive Mind and such. So, I started to think of how a mono-green deck with outrageous ramping possibilities could address these problems. Here is what I came up with:
4 Arbor Elf
2 Llanowar Elf
2 Fyndhorn Elf
1 Quirion Ranger
4 Priest of Titania
4 Elvish Archdruid
1 Viridian Shaman
3 Elvish Champion
4 Imperious Perfect
3 Sylvan Messenger
1 Ezuri, Renegade Leader
4 Green Sun's Zenith
Artifact:
3 Winter Orb
4 Trinisphere
Planeswalkers:
2 Garruk Wildspeaker
Lands:
13 Forest
4 Wasteland
1 Dryad Arbor
1 Gaea's Cradle
The basic idea is to drop Winter Orb and Trinisphere supplemented by Wasteland to kill your opponents mana base, while taking advantage of this with Gaea's Cradle, Garruk Wildspeaker, and the obscene mana Elves can make. Trinisphere could be Thorn of Amethyst, but the former is obviously the more powerful single drop and only really affects a few cards in the deck (Llanowar Elves, Fyndhorn Elves), which are really dead anyways after the first couple turns. It maintains the possible T4 goldfish that Elves is capable of, with the added benefit of screwing your opponents to really get a board presence and excel at the midgame.
Sideboard (very tentative)
My Sideboard is really what I'm having the most trouble with, as my Matchup Analysis is fairly shaky. What I have so far is:
2 Null Rod
3 Beast Within
1 Gaddock Teeg
1 Viridian Zealot
2 Phyrexian Metamorph
I'm not so sure about Null Rod, as the combo-hate it was meant to be is taken care of in Trinisphere. However, it does still work on Aether Vial, which is a problem that I'll get into later. I'm also not sure about Beast Within > Krosan Grip > Nature's Claim, since Phyrexian Metamorph may already address the creature removal this deck needs (Iona, Shield of Imeria, Emrakul, the Aeons Torn, Progenitus, Blazing Archon).
Matchups (tentative)
Reanimator:
Problems to Address: Iona, Shield of Emeria, Blazing Archon
Pre-board: Trinisphere and Winter Orb are really what gives you a chance here, as they can slow your opponent down long enough to swarm them (a benefit you don't really get with NO).
Post-board: Beast Within for Blazing Archon, Phyrexian Metamorph for Iona. Provided you can fight through the counters to kill these guys, swarming shouldn't be much of a problem.
Hive Mind: (the main reason for the disruption)
Problems to Address: Emrakul, the Aeons Torn, Pacts
Pre-board: This is where Trinisphere and Winter Orb shine. If you can get these bad boys down, the time it takes for them to recover is more than enough for you to swarm.
Post-board: You now have the added benefit of Beast Within/Krosan Grip, and Phyrexian Metamorph. Other than that I don't see it being much different than G1.
Merfolk: (the big ?)
Problems to Address: Elves thrived on these little blue dudes before, as Elves are faster and don't care about the occasional counter. However, G1 is much harder now that your disruption does very, very little.
Pre-board: In theory you can still outrace them. Trinisphere does what it does against FoW, but mana disruption does little against a resolved Aether Vial.
Post-board: Obviosly, Winter Orb comes out. I'm not entirely sold on what cards to board in, but some that come to mind are Pithing Needle for Aether Vial (in which case Winter Orb may not lose all effectiveness), Beast Within to stop Coralhelm Commander, and, possibly, Tsunami just to really get that guy's face red. This is the MU I'm having the most trouble addressing.
TES
Problems to Address: Not really any. With Trinisphere and Winter Orb in the Main Deck, you've got this MU pretty covered, something no other variation of Elves can really say.
Pre-board: Rush Trinisphere ASAP, and go to G2.
Post-board: Your answers can be addressed, but now you can also bring in Null Rod, Gaddock Teeg, etc. to really put the hate on.
Dredge
Problems to Address: Another MU Elves has always struggled against. Iona, Shield of Imeria comes into play again.
Pre-board: You should be able to bust out a Trinisphere and call game. There's very little a Dredge player can do G1 against that, as Ichorid alone will not be fast enough.
Post-board: They'll board some answers, but so can you. Gaddock Teeg and Phyrexian Metamorph help a lot here.
Zoo
Problems to Address: They can be very fast and have spot removal, making landing a Trinisphere quite hard.
Pre-board: I personally have had good success with this, although this may be luck. With a Trinisphere and/or Winter Orb online, you can outpace them.
Post-board: They'll bring in some Krosan Grips, and there's really not much you can do about it. However, Trinisphere and Winter Orb are still bombs, and they can and will win you this MU.
Stoneforge.dec
Problems to Address: Batterskull, Sword of Feast and Famine
Pre-board: Trinisphere and Winter Orb can help you slow them down, but Stoneforge get's around them just like Aether Vial does. GSZ for Viridian Shaman to blow Batterskull can single handedly win you this game though.
Post-board: Winter Orb and Trinisphere don't work as well here, but Beast Within, Krosan Grip, and Null Rod do. If you can keep a Batterskull from getting out of hand, you should be able to race them.
NO Elves
Top 8 SCG: LA 2011
Arbor elf over lanowars -> Arbor is strictly inferior in this list as you run non forests and dont run anything like wild growth. Lawnmowers and Fyndhorn should be maxed before using him.
Sylvan messenger -> Probably not great as it could be. You do have 20 lands and 13 non elf cards. Goblins basically run 40/20 just to max their ringleaders, and you can't do that. Probably would drop for more lords.
3 trinisphere -> Its the part of your combo you need to hit. Why only 3? If anything i would go as far as to say its more important than the orb because it stops non land mana sources as well as making cheap stuff more costly. Fish shrugs off winter orb with vial and free counters, trinisphere messes its whole day up.
1 Quirion Ranger -> Seems like this works better with your combo than almost anything else. Probably want to maximize these.
utility elves -> you have 4 GSZ. Probably woudl run a few more 1 ofs that provide utility.
Nettle / Heritage package -> Maybe its not right for this list, not sure, but it damn well feels strong.
Were I run this list, i think i would want something like this:
4 Llanowar Elf
4 Fyndhorn Elf
4 Imperious Perfect
4 Priest of Titania
4 Elvish Archdruid
4 Quirion ranger
1 Viridian Shaman
1 Ezuri, Renegade Leader
1 Regal Force
Sorcery:
4 Green Sun's Zenith
Artifact:
3 Winter Orb
4 Trinisphere
2 Crucible of worlds
4 Verdant catacombs
9 Forest
4 Wasteland
1 Dryad Arbor
1 Gaea's Cradle
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Comedy gaming podcast. Listening to it makes you cool.
2 Pithing Needle (works great for Vial and SFM)
3 Phyrexian Metamorph (Iona, Emrakul, Progenitus)
3 Beast Within (Blazing Archon, Tombstalker)
1 Viridian Zealot (Problem Enchantments)
1 Gaddock Teeg (Lots)
1 Dauntless Escort (Perish)
2 Null Rod (Affinity, TES)
2 Surgical Extraction (Dredge, Reanimator)
This rounds out the bad MU's that I've come across. Most other MU's are very winnable. Not sure if Null Rods are necessary, we'll see.
Thorn of Amethyst vs. Trinisphere: I'm still not sure. Trinisphere is such a bomb against so many things, but a lot of the really bad cards for this deck (S&T, NO) are 3cmc or more anyways, and Thorn affects all of those. It would kill the Zoo MU though.
NO Elves
Top 8 SCG: LA 2011
YUMA, AZ
Sylvan Messenger has been disappointing in that you send crucial lock pieces to the bottom of your library. I'm actually testing Harmonize, and it's not too shabby. It doesn't give you the body that Messenger gives you, but it draws you cards with more consistency and often more quality. I don't, however, know if it outclasses Elvish Visionary or not. If I run Elvish Visionary, it also might not be a bad idea to include Wirewood Symbiote as a 1-of.
I agree we are trying to do something similar, but I think in the format Winter Orb and Trinisphere are better than Tangle Wire and Plow Under. Tangle Wire hurts you too much (tapping down elves most likely) and Plow Under is a bit too one-and-done.
NO Elves
Top 8 SCG: LA 2011
Have you tested your deck against Miracles?