It is unfeasible for a cycle of rares to obtain such a high price while the set is in print, there is no way that a box will have an EV of greater than what is paid for it or else stores and players would crack the boxes to sell them as singles and to find their singles. Sure maybe in years when this set has rotated out of standard the fetches might explode upwards in price but there is no way they will stay that high when in standard. This isn't feelings and past experience talking, this is literally math.
So can any mathematicians here predict a rise in prices of the ABU duals across the Khans block now that the fetches are reprinted? This does take quite a bit of barrier off some decks, and may cause a slight incline in the already growing legacy community.
So can any mathematicians here predict a rise in prices of the ABU duals across the Khans block now that the fetches are reprinted? This does take quite a bit of barrier off some decks, and may cause a slight incline in the already growing legacy community.
mmm AB duals are more a collector's item, so let leave them out the analysis.
Short answer: may go either way, in fact, it could drop!
economics 101 here:
-when a product incrise supply, price go down, their complement prices go up and their susbstitute prices goes down.
-so ONS fetchs reprinted, other fetchs go down (Zendikar)
-Duals and Shocklands are complement on fetchs, but they may be substitutes with each other!
why? because duals represent legacy while shocks modern.
so fetch lower prices may drive people into legacy and/or modern, for a moment think that people may get into modern instead of legacy, that could bring duals land go down in prices
what i really think? ABU duals will not have a price change because this reprint.
disclamer: yeah, there is a lot of if and so, but the real deal is that it could go either way.
Goyf used to be the last card picked in our drafts. everyone wanted nimbus maze and pact of negation
Edit: unrelated note, i also bought a mint condition badlands from starcity for 25$ in 2008. i miss those days.
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So two Opalescence and a Humility walk into a bar, I forget the rest of the joke but your sanctioned judge is a scrub.
I don't know if this has been brought up before but the price for Noble Hierarch has gotten ridiculously out of hand. If you compare this card, at over $80, to something like Deathrite Shaman, at under $10, how much each card is used and how powerful each is, I can't honestly see the price difference. I could see Hierarch at maybe $30 - $40 but $80?
Just trying to wrap my head around this so if anybody can maybe explain why the big price difference, I'm all ears.
Anyone who thinks fetches will be 80 dollars while in standard is insane. They aren't even very good in standard
I think aggro decks need them right now. The only other colour fixers which dont CIPT are enemy painlands (no good in some decks), and Mana Confluence (not enough on it's own. But I don't play Standard, so I could be way off!
Edit - even if I'm right, I thing we are looking at about $15-$20 when they settle, maybe as low as $12. New prinitings only, of course.
Anyone who thinks fetches will be 80 dollars while in standard is insane. They aren't even very good in standard
I think aggro decks need them right now. The only other colour fixers which dont CIPT are enemy painlands (no good in some decks), and Mana Confluence (not enough on it's own. But I don't play Standard, so I could be way off!
Edit - even if I'm right, I thing we are looking at about $15-$20 when they settle, maybe as low as $12. New prinitings only, of course.
I am willing to buy some fetches if they reach my near-$10 arbitrary threshold. Cards like Bloodstained Mire are already ~$12 (or $12.50) as I type this. I have a feeling we're witnessing a price trend similar to RTR's key rares: shocks, drs, decay. The prices gradually fell week by week. At some point they rose up -- but over time the supply cut heavily into prices. I think by mid-October we'll be looking at all fetchlands in and around $10, perhaps lower.
In terms of "old" fetches (for those of us who still have them), I think prices won't deflate much lower. Look at old vs new Thoughtseize. The old ones still retain a bit of $ value.
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That which nourishes me, destroys me
10th at SCG: Syracuse (2014), GP:NJ Last-Chance Grinder Winner (2014):: Former Legacy Mod
I mean, hell, we're all on a forum for something that most people would describe as a "children's card game"...do what makes you happy. You are never too old to enjoy yourself.
DRS is banned in modern while noble hierarch isn't that is it.
Deathrite Shaman was also in a set with a substantially larger print run.
And Hierarch is considered a "Pimp" card. It'sprice while Deathrite was in Modern was $8. As soon as Deathrite was banned, it hit $50 and is still there.
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Modern: U Merfolk | GR Tron | WUR Jeskai Control | WBG Abzan Company
I really don't like the cards that are not expensive but are way too much for what they are
Like monastery swiftspear is 3 bucks? It's not much but it's just a common! And a foil one is already around 20$ each!
I don't even want to think about what it will be later on. And treasure cruise also spiked. I know these cards are expensive cuz everyone wants it for their delver but cmon, it's waaaay too much. I'm sure there are others but can't think of any for right now
I really don't like the cards that are not expensive but are way too much for what they are
Like monastery swiftspear is 3 bucks? It's not much but it's just a common! And a foil one is already around 20$ each!
I don't even want to think about what it will be later on. And treasure cruise also spiked. I know these cards are expensive cuz everyone wants it for their delver but cmon, it's waaaay too much. I'm sure there are others but can't think of any for right now
Monastery Swiftspear is an uncommon, not a common.
I really don't like the cards that are not expensive but are way too much for what they are
Like monastery swiftspear is 3 bucks? It's not much but it's just a common! And a foil one is already around 20$ each!
I don't even want to think about what it will be later on. And treasure cruise also spiked. I know these cards are expensive cuz everyone wants it for their delver but cmon, it's waaaay too much. I'm sure there are others but can't think of any for right now
You think this is bad? Circular Logic was $8 each when I played Standard back in the day. 7th Edition Duress was $3. Onslaught Shock (yes, that Shock) was $2. Preorder Isochron Scepter was $9, and that card never got played in any substantial amount, because Affinity killed any deck that needed to durdle for more than 3 turns.
Mildly playable rares were priced the same as mildly playable Mythics today. New cards are much, much more affordable today than a few years ago.
I am not so sure about that I played back on IPA/OTJ and OTJ/OLS. Circular logic was no where near $8 ($4 during its peek) Duress was $1, and yes so was shock (yes THAT shock but it was the best and only burn we had....) Isochron Scepter is one of the most fun casual cards in exsistance and even then rarely got past $3. Mildly Playable rares were as rare aprox as mildly playable mythic s are today..... Also with the greater value displacement it was ALOT easier to trade to what you wanted.
Since we're on the topic of mass-opening affecting price: Is there any reason to hang on to excess Treasure Cruises? I feel like they could be worth $1-$2 if not more one day, but I've never had to speculate on a set that is so wildly opened.
Think about how much Delver is worth of you want to speculate on a common.
This is just my wild pie in the sky fantasy, but I would speculate on Delver getting banned rather than its price increasing.
Brainstorm would be banned way-way before wizards banned Delver (otherwise wizards was talking out of their ass when they banned Survival... )
I dont see it as much of a price increase, although I have doubts that wizards will reprint Delver or go back on the flip over cycle. So eventually Delver may hit the 5.00 mark, maybe 10 dollars.
It's not unheard of a common breaking 5.00 or more. I believe for a short time Priest of Titania was going for 15 dollars!
Worth noting that Serum Visions is a common going for around $7. It's due to modern demand, of course, but even so, it's not unheard of for commons to be worth something. That being said, Innistrad was opened a ton compared to Fifth Dawn so there are a lot more things to consider when looking at Delver.
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"An immense river of oblivion is sweeping us away into a nameless abyss." —Ernest Renan, Souvenirs d'Enfance et de Jeunesse
The thing is, it's a supply/demand thing. There is no shortage of TC and due to the set its in being:
A) a large set
B) a first set
C) containing large amounts of cards wanted by all formats (Something that is hard to achieve)
It will be widely opened and thus the commons in it are unlikely to be a safe bet on the cost ever increasing to the levels seen by other commons in the past.
The thing is, it's a supply/demand thing. There is no shortage of TC and due to the set its in being:
A) a large set
B) a first set
C) containing large amounts of cards wanted by all formats (Something that is hard to achieve)
It will be widely opened and thus the commons in it are unlikely to be a safe bet on the cost ever increasing to the levels seen by other commons in the past.
D) Not too many decks can play TC. Really, some decks dont fill up the graveyard that fast and others need card in the graveyard.
E) TC is not faster then most 1cc cantrips (TC cannot be played on turn 1 or 2 and cannot be played right after each other - unless you have 14 cards in the graveyard)
F) TC is no brainstorm.
G) Brainstorm is still less then a dollar each (so it makes no sense to use TC as an alternated card for Brainstorm)
H) Everybody that tested TC is learning that playing 4 is too much, players are dropping down to 3, 2 and even 1 in a deck
If TC is valued over 1.00 it's because of current hype and most likely drop.
If TC is valued over 5.00 it's most likely some silly kid is buying up the TC's with hopes in crashing the market - good luck kid because that's a lot of TC's you need to buy.
mmm AB duals are more a collector's item, so let leave them out the analysis.
Short answer: may go either way, in fact, it could drop!
economics 101 here:
-when a product incrise supply, price go down, their complement prices go up and their susbstitute prices goes down.
-so ONS fetchs reprinted, other fetchs go down (Zendikar)
-Duals and Shocklands are complement on fetchs, but they may be substitutes with each other!
why? because duals represent legacy while shocks modern.
so fetch lower prices may drive people into legacy and/or modern, for a moment think that people may get into modern instead of legacy, that could bring duals land go down in prices
what i really think? ABU duals will not have a price change because this reprint.
disclamer: yeah, there is a lot of if and so, but the real deal is that it could go either way.
Edit: unrelated note, i also bought a mint condition badlands from starcity for 25$ in 2008. i miss those days.
Just trying to wrap my head around this so if anybody can maybe explain why the big price difference, I'm all ears.
I think aggro decks need them right now. The only other colour fixers which dont CIPT are enemy painlands (no good in some decks), and Mana Confluence (not enough on it's own. But I don't play Standard, so I could be way off!
Edit - even if I'm right, I thing we are looking at about $15-$20 when they settle, maybe as low as $12. New prinitings only, of course.
https://fieldmarshalshandbook.wordpress.com/
RUGLegacy Lands.dec
RUGBLegacy Lands.dec
RGLegacy Lands.dec
WUBRG EDH Lands.dec
UBR EDH Artificer Prodigy
B EDH Relentless Rats
I am willing to buy some fetches if they reach my near-$10 arbitrary threshold. Cards like Bloodstained Mire are already ~$12 (or $12.50) as I type this. I have a feeling we're witnessing a price trend similar to RTR's key rares: shocks, drs, decay. The prices gradually fell week by week. At some point they rose up -- but over time the supply cut heavily into prices. I think by mid-October we'll be looking at all fetchlands in and around $10, perhaps lower.
In terms of "old" fetches (for those of us who still have them), I think prices won't deflate much lower. Look at old vs new Thoughtseize. The old ones still retain a bit of $ value.
10th at SCG: Syracuse (2014), GP:NJ Last-Chance Grinder Winner (2014):: Former Legacy Mod
And Hierarch is considered a "Pimp" card. It'sprice while Deathrite was in Modern was $8. As soon as Deathrite was banned, it hit $50 and is still there.
U Merfolk | GR Tron | WUR Jeskai Control | WBG Abzan Company
EDH:
G Ezuri, Renegade Leader, Fighting for Rivendell
WU Brago, King Eternal, Long Live the King
WUBRG Scion of the Ur-Dragon, Worship the Dragon
Like monastery swiftspear is 3 bucks? It's not much but it's just a common! And a foil one is already around 20$ each!
I don't even want to think about what it will be later on. And treasure cruise also spiked. I know these cards are expensive cuz everyone wants it for their delver but cmon, it's waaaay too much. I'm sure there are others but can't think of any for right now
Still it doesn't make sense for it to be so expensive for just an uncommon. I have golds worth less than that!
You think this is bad? Circular Logic was $8 each when I played Standard back in the day. 7th Edition Duress was $3. Onslaught Shock (yes, that Shock) was $2. Preorder Isochron Scepter was $9, and that card never got played in any substantial amount, because Affinity killed any deck that needed to durdle for more than 3 turns.
Mildly playable rares were priced the same as mildly playable Mythics today. New cards are much, much more affordable today than a few years ago.
Current decks of choice:
Vintage: Shops.
Legacy: Lands.
Modern: Lantern.
This is just my wild pie in the sky fantasy, but I would speculate on Delver getting banned rather than its price increasing.
1.20 TcgMid in only three years. Since I'm drafting the hell out of this set anyway, it's worth keeping them around.
Brainstorm would be banned way-way before wizards banned Delver (otherwise wizards was talking out of their ass when they banned Survival... )
I dont see it as much of a price increase, although I have doubts that wizards will reprint Delver or go back on the flip over cycle. So eventually Delver may hit the 5.00 mark, maybe 10 dollars.
It's not unheard of a common breaking 5.00 or more. I believe for a short time Priest of Titania was going for 15 dollars!
In his Second 100 days - Yawgmoth's Bargain is unrestricted in Vintage.
What is going to happen in the Next 100 days!!!
A) a large set
B) a first set
C) containing large amounts of cards wanted by all formats (Something that is hard to achieve)
It will be widely opened and thus the commons in it are unlikely to be a safe bet on the cost ever increasing to the levels seen by other commons in the past.
Current decks of choice:
Vintage: Shops.
Legacy: Lands.
Modern: Lantern.
D) Not too many decks can play TC. Really, some decks dont fill up the graveyard that fast and others need card in the graveyard.
E) TC is not faster then most 1cc cantrips (TC cannot be played on turn 1 or 2 and cannot be played right after each other - unless you have 14 cards in the graveyard)
F) TC is no brainstorm.
G) Brainstorm is still less then a dollar each (so it makes no sense to use TC as an alternated card for Brainstorm)
H) Everybody that tested TC is learning that playing 4 is too much, players are dropping down to 3, 2 and even 1 in a deck
If TC is valued over 1.00 it's because of current hype and most likely drop.
If TC is valued over 5.00 it's most likely some silly kid is buying up the TC's with hopes in crashing the market - good luck kid because that's a lot of TC's you need to buy.
In his Second 100 days - Yawgmoth's Bargain is unrestricted in Vintage.
What is going to happen in the Next 100 days!!!
Thanks Argentleman;)
WB Teysa token aggroBW (retired)
MAKING (Onmath, Numot, maybe something in Esper)