For the person playing them, maybe. For their opponents? Not as much. I don't know if anyone has ever gone "Oh my God! You did sol ring/signet into turn 2 Riku again? That's so cool!" I forget whether it was a comment in this thread or something in an article somewhere else, but I vaguely recall a rules committee member expressing an aspect of the "social contract" as each player intending to create fun experiences for the whole table, not just themselves.
Such things are self-regulating. An early, explosive start makes one a target.
If people want to explode in the start and either go so far ahead that they end up playing archenemy, or drop something so big early that they practically guarantee an early win, they need to accept they will shed themselves in a negative light more often then not. My decks CAN play or be competitive and fast, but there are many times I hold back or don't drop my sol ring or mana crypt turn one. Why because I know I just painted a target on my head if I do and I'm here to have fun NOT win, so i'll hold it for a few turns if I can. If someone else explodes out of the start and I see no one else will adjust quick enough, I might then drop my manacrypt and catch up and attempt to not let the game end early, but that is rarely ever needed. The game is about having fun TOGETHER politically, not racking up wins.. I don't think enough people realize this.
If you play games with random people in stores, decks clearly wont be tuned for each other and some will be MUCH more competitive than others and the game tends to be about who can show off and rack up wins.. there actually IS a very fun fix to this that I've adopted. Break out a Planechase deck for the table to share and enjoy. Many people have never tried it but fall in love with it instantly, and the randomness of the various Planes and Phenomenons can cause the best decks to fall behind and the worst decks to jump ahead, even if the best deck gets better or the worse deck gets worse it happened on a random effect from a Plane and a lucky roll of the Planar Die. It makes everyone feel equal and the games can change drastically by chance and luck even if you are so far behind it is ridiculous. ALSO, the Planechase deck does a good job of giving you a chance to play for another turn or two even if you didn't topdeck an answer from your own deck.
TLDR: Play for fun not to win. If you're playing random people and decks are imbalanced (super casuals and super competitives) break out a Planechase deck for the table to share!
Drop the Sol Ring crusade. It isn't happening, so you're just going to frustrate yourself. Try to house ban it. I'm not saying this as a mod, just a user who visits this thread like everyone else.
I am going Sol Ring sober after this post.
People who want it banned NOW don't accept the truth: They got a thorough review of the card by the RC, and were told 'It's a powerful card that is staying legal'.
And going in reverse the presence of fast mana in the format probably led to a lot of the bannings that have happened because too much acceleration makes cards that are not that good on their own better.
Wild speculation does not engender much of a discussion either. Their aren't 'a lot' of banning and none of them have to do with how soon a card comes out.
If people are sick of reading about stuff just stop taking part. You have 100% control over what you read. Simic Ascendancy isn't going to get banned just because you didn't tell someone to shut up on the internet.
Yeah, just had a game where someone kept a 0-lander and won turn 2. That was a lot of fun.
Yes, Mana Crypt and Sol Ring were both involved, how did you guess?
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My Commander decks:
Chandra, Torch of Defiance - Oops! All Chandras.
Prime Speaker Zegana - Draw for Power.
Pir & Toothy - Counterpalooza.
Arcades, the Strategist - Another Brick in the Wall.
Zacama, Primal Calamity - Calamity of Double Mana.
Edgar Markov - Vampires Don't Die.
Child of Alara - Dreamcrusher.
If people are sick of reading about stuff just stop taking part. You have 100% control over what you read. Simic Ascendancy isn't going to get banned just because you didn't tell someone to shut up on the internet.
Because we didn't know. As I've stated countless times before, fluid playgroups exist.
This guy went Mana Crypt, Sol Ring, Mox Opal, Signet, Signet, Greaves, pass, turn 2 Narset, attack...and it went south quickly.
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My Commander decks:
Chandra, Torch of Defiance - Oops! All Chandras.
Prime Speaker Zegana - Draw for Power.
Pir & Toothy - Counterpalooza.
Arcades, the Strategist - Another Brick in the Wall.
Zacama, Primal Calamity - Calamity of Double Mana.
Edgar Markov - Vampires Don't Die.
Child of Alara - Dreamcrusher.
Neither of those cards are particularly good/useful in Kozilek, but I'll keep it in mind. I also never got a turn 2, so that didn't help either.
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My Commander decks:
Chandra, Torch of Defiance - Oops! All Chandras.
Prime Speaker Zegana - Draw for Power.
Pir & Toothy - Counterpalooza.
Arcades, the Strategist - Another Brick in the Wall.
Zacama, Primal Calamity - Calamity of Double Mana.
Edgar Markov - Vampires Don't Die.
Child of Alara - Dreamcrusher.
Because we didn't know. As I've stated countless times before, fluid playgroups exist.
This guy went Mana Crypt, Sol Ring, Mox Opal, Signet, Signet, Greaves, pass, turn 2 Narset, attack...and it went south quickly.
Well if they ban Mana Crypt like I'm suggesting AND implement a full mulligan, you wouldn't have had that issue.
My deck I played last week had a turn 0 god hand in it with 6 cards also. I'm sure if I played it enough I would eventually get it, but if I do I'm not going to get up in arms about how broken a particular card is, I'm going to recognize that my deck is the problem because I intentionally stuffed it to the gills with cheap mana acceleration and combo cards.
Playing magic with broken cards and broken strategies is fun.
For the person playing them, maybe. For their opponents? Not as much. I don't know if anyone has ever gone "Oh my God! You did sol ring/signet into turn 2 Riku again? That's so cool!" I forget whether it was a comment in this thread or something in an article somewhere else, but I vaguely recall a rules committee member expressing an aspect of the "social contract" as each player intending to create fun experiences for the whole table, not just themselves.
If everyone is playing equally "broken" stuff it can be fun, and fall within the social contract. Out of balance isn't, but that's true even if no one is playing anything people here would call "broken". If someone does the described play consistently, THEY are the issue. If someone does it on a god hand, shake it offto 'crazy junk happens in EDH'. I have been there, on both sides, and sometimes it sucks. Not all games can be epic, we have to strive to make as many of them epic as we can. I understand you think some particular bans would work towards that goal, maybe it would. But the thing is the people who make tough calls like that made it.
If people are sick of reading about stuff just stop taking part. You have 100% control over what you read. Simic Ascendancy isn't going to get banned just because you didn't tell someone to shut up on the internet.
I think Cryogen is mostly on the right track. I'd just get rid of partial paris mulligans. I don't even think Mana Crypt needs to be banned. Get rid of hand sculpting before banning god hand exploits.
For the person playing them, maybe. For their opponents? Not as much. I don't know if anyone has ever gone "Oh my God! You did sol ring/signet into turn 2 Riku again? That's so cool!" I forget whether it was a comment in this thread or something in an article somewhere else, but I vaguely recall a rules committee member expressing an aspect of the "social contract" as each player intending to create fun experiences for the whole table, not just themselves.
Such things are self-regulating. An early, explosive start makes one a target.
Or, worst case, the game is over quickly, and everyone shuffles up for a new game. And if the same player keeps starting with T1 Sol Ring over and over, his shuffling probably needs to be examined closely.
I think Cryogen is mostly on the right track. I'd just get rid of partial paris mulligans. I don't even think Mana Crypt needs to be banned. Get rid of hand sculpting before banning god hand exploits.
It is my sincere hope that getting rid of PP will have this effect. Now if we can just make something which allows people to be in the game from the start without fostering the T3 kill, we'll be golden. Vancouver+multiplayer might be it. The modified Gis mulligan might be it. Or it might just be in a fertile brain somewhere. We'll see.
I think Cryogen is mostly on the right track. I'd just get rid of partial paris mulligans. I don't even think Mana Crypt needs to be banned. Get rid of hand sculpting before banning god hand exploits.
It is my sincere hope that getting rid of PP will have this effect. Now if we can just make something which allows people to be in the game from the start without fostering the T3 kill, we'll be golden. Vancouver+multiplayer might be it. The modified Gis mulligan might be it. Or it might just be in a fertile brain somewhere. We'll see.
You'll never hear a complaint from me any time you make an effort to keep cards in the card pool. Commander is awesome because you can play practically everything. There are a few cards I think are unbannable not just in a selfish for my own deck way, but not adding to the banned list is always a good decision.
It is my sincere hope that getting rid of PP will have this effect. Now if we can just make something which allows people to be in the game from the start without fostering the T3 kill, we'll be golden. Vancouver+multiplayer might be it. The modified Gis mulligan might be it. Or it might just be in a fertile brain somewhere. We'll see.
I want to respond to this, but it is more suited for the new mulligan thread, so I responded here. I encourage everyone who also wishes to respond to do so there as well (if it's about mulligans).
Because we didn't know. As I've stated countless times before, fluid playgroups exist.
This guy went Mana Crypt, Sol Ring, Mox Opal, Signet, Signet, Greaves, pass, turn 2 Narset, attack...and it went south quickly.
I'm fairly sure that the likelihood of that opener happening is less than winning the lottery. Tell your buddy to buy a ticket.
For that specific combination of cards, the odds are pretty low. But that doesn't mean much. What's more relevant is how often the t2 narset play can happen off of god hands.
With Partial paris mulligans? It's more likely than you think.
Let's see, assuming those aren't the only mana rocks the narset player runs, I can think of a few more that can enable an early narset. Also swiftfoot boots is another card that can replace lightning greaves. Mass Hysteria too. Being conservative, there are probably about 12 successes in the population (another signet, chrome mox, mox diamond, simian spirit guide, rituals, etc, etc). With partial paris, he can mulligan down to 5 cards, and draw the 6th. With a free mull (that seems to be the standard on cockatrice, your group may vary), that means he can see up to 26 cards in his deck, if he's really digging. (7+7+6+5+1). This is hardly exact, but it's close enough. We can use the Hypergeometric distribution to calculate the probability.
There are 99 cards in the population
26 cards in the sample size
12 cards in his deck that can enable the t2 narset.
We require six of those cards in this example.
Plug that all in to a hypergeometric distribution calculator, and you get about 4% odds of the turn 2 narset happening. Hardly lottery winning levels. And I was being extremely conservative with the amount of cards that let it happen. Throw in some more mana rocks, rituals, etc, and I think the odds jump way up. For instance, if there are 20 cards in your deck that can enable a t2 narset, then under this model you have a roughly 20% chance of plopping her down on t2. But that's less relevant, because decks like that aren't the format's concern.
It's not an exact simulation of partial paris mulligans. For instance, having a success card in your initial hand reduces your ability to partial Paris, and thus reduces the sample size. A proper calculation would probably run a distribution at each stage of the partial paris, and then for each possible outcome of that, and then for each possible outcome after a partial paris of those. That seems like a lot of work though, and I don't think it would change the results that much. Further, it doesn't differentiate between cards. A sol ring is more of a success/boost than a mox diamond for instance.
And finally, it doesn't take into account lands. Adding lands into the calculation would definitely increase the odds of god like hands that enable t2 narset, though I have no idea how to model that. As a wild guess from personal experience playing decks with fast mana and lands, it doesn't seem off to say there's maybe a 10% chance of 6 mana plays happening on turn 2 in a deck with the efficient rocks.
I'm reading these anti-sol ring posts, and wow you guys are noisy. There's a lot of talking and not a lot of listening. I used to share that view but I hope I never sounded that angry about it
First of all - show some damned respect. Sheldon, papa_funk, and the rest of the RC are legends in the magic scene. If you've watched pro tour footage you've probably seen Sheldon judging final tables. He understands competitive magic, and doesn't need a lesson on broken cards.
Secondly - they didn't just invent this wonderful format that we all love, they defined its guiding philosophy which has been the reason for its popularity and growth. This vision of EDH that has been continually challenged for these last ~10 pages or so IS what EDH is.
Perhaps instead of lecturing them on things you *think* they don't understand, stop and listen. There is wisdom and experience behind this philosophy, and if you make some effort to understand and appreciate it you might start to realize that it isn't "inconsistent" or "flawed" - it's actually beautiful.
I'm speaking as a guy who, at first, thought it was ridiculous that sol ring was legal. If you search my username on the now-retiring wotc forums, you'll see me making the same exact points that are being made now. Like EXACTLY. But that was a long time ago and I 'get it' now. And if you open your mind a little, you could too.
And you really should, because believe me, group magic is WAY more fun this way. Deckbuilding....somewhat less so, I'll admit. There is a certain pleasure to be found in tuning a decklist to near-perfection. But as far as actually sitting down for a game with others and enjoying the process of playing? Not even close...embracing the casual EDH philosophy is the way.
I see a lot of examples given, none of them actually applicable. Many of you are confusing banlist problems with social problems.
A guy dumping a bunch of mana rocks and winning uninteractively is not a banlist problem - that's a job for the social contract.
A guy enjoying a great start for krenko, or his voltron general can be fine - but if he decides to use that to focus one single opponent out of the game in 2 swings - that's another social issue too, believe it or not.
Casual play is all about understanding that sometimes it's worth sacrificing some %age of your win rate to ensure the game is more fun for your peers. And that includes everything from deck-building, to deciding who to attack.
If you have 26 0-2 drop mana rocks in Narset, your odds of winning off the first swing seem incredibly low, but I do see your point.
That being said, if you're playing a Narset deck with 26 mana rocks with the intention of being able to play her turn 2, your playgroup should be playing equivalently powerful decks or you're just being a dick.
If you have 26 0-2 drop mana rocks in Narset, your odds of winning off the first swing seem incredibly low, but I do see your point.
That being said, if you're playing a Narset deck with 26 mana rocks with the intention of being able to play her turn 2, your playgroup should be playing equivalently powerful decks or you're just being a dick.
Just to clarify: my math wasn't based on you having 26 mana rocks in your deck. It assumed 12 mana rocks. The 26 is the sample size of cards you can conceivably see by partial parising.
So first you have 7 cards. Then you partial paris all 7 away and take the free mull (Yes, I realize this is insanely broken, but it's the culture that's developed)for another 7. Then you mull those away and get 6 cards. Then you mull those away and get 5. Then you keep and draw 1. That's a total of 26 cards that you have gotten to see. I know it doesn't exactly track the actual scenario, but it's a good number to base the estimate off of. I am admittedly an armchair mathematician with no qualifications, so feel free to pick it apart.
Getting to see up to 26 cards with partial paris mulling, and with 12 possible cards that enable the god hand in your deck, the odds work out to about a 4% chance of drawing some version of your god hand.
There are some serious flaws in that math. What you've done is calculate the chance of being able to cast a turn 2 narset with a single opening hand of 26 cards.
That's VERY VERY different from draw 7, keep or chuck, draw 7, keep or chuck, draw 6, keep or chuck, draw 5+1.
There are some serious flaws in that math. What you've done is calculate the chance of being able to cast a turn 2 narset with a single opening hand of 26 cards.
That's VERY VERY different from draw 7, keep or chuck, draw 7, keep or chuck, draw 6, keep or chuck, draw 5+1.
It's more like draw 7, keep the acceleration and chuck the rest, then draw that many, etc. because of Partial Paris.
Yeah but there are all kinds of possibilities you're not accounting for. For example, in the first couple of mulls you keep the acceleration and pitch the rest (including lands), then succeed at reaching the acceleration quota with the last batch that unfortunately contains no lands. So you fail to drop turn 2 narset. One-26-card-hand math would still count this as a success, since the 26 cards contained everything needed.
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Such things are self-regulating. An early, explosive start makes one a target.
If you play games with random people in stores, decks clearly wont be tuned for each other and some will be MUCH more competitive than others and the game tends to be about who can show off and rack up wins.. there actually IS a very fun fix to this that I've adopted. Break out a Planechase deck for the table to share and enjoy. Many people have never tried it but fall in love with it instantly, and the randomness of the various Planes and Phenomenons can cause the best decks to fall behind and the worst decks to jump ahead, even if the best deck gets better or the worse deck gets worse it happened on a random effect from a Plane and a lucky roll of the Planar Die. It makes everyone feel equal and the games can change drastically by chance and luck even if you are so far behind it is ridiculous. ALSO, the Planechase deck does a good job of giving you a chance to play for another turn or two even if you didn't topdeck an answer from your own deck.
TLDR: Play for fun not to win. If you're playing random people and decks are imbalanced (super casuals and super competitives) break out a Planechase deck for the table to share!
People who want it banned NOW don't accept the truth: They got a thorough review of the card by the RC, and were told 'It's a powerful card that is staying legal'. Wild speculation does not engender much of a discussion either. Their aren't 'a lot' of banning and none of them have to do with how soon a card comes out.
Yes, Mana Crypt and Sol Ring were both involved, how did you guess?
Chandra, Torch of Defiance - Oops! All Chandras.
Prime Speaker Zegana - Draw for Power.
Pir & Toothy - Counterpalooza.
Arcades, the Strategist - Another Brick in the Wall.
Zacama, Primal Calamity - Calamity of Double Mana.
Edgar Markov - Vampires Don't Die.
Child of Alara - Dreamcrusher.
This guy went Mana Crypt, Sol Ring, Mox Opal, Signet, Signet, Greaves, pass, turn 2 Narset, attack...and it went south quickly.
Chandra, Torch of Defiance - Oops! All Chandras.
Prime Speaker Zegana - Draw for Power.
Pir & Toothy - Counterpalooza.
Arcades, the Strategist - Another Brick in the Wall.
Zacama, Primal Calamity - Calamity of Double Mana.
Edgar Markov - Vampires Don't Die.
Child of Alara - Dreamcrusher.
I'm fairly sure that the likelihood of that opener happening is less than winning the lottery. Tell your buddy to buy a ticket.
BRGrenzo, Dungeon Warden EDH
GAzusa, Always in a Rush EDH
GWUDerevi, Empyrial Warlord EDH
Trade thread on MOTL
Chandra, Torch of Defiance - Oops! All Chandras.
Prime Speaker Zegana - Draw for Power.
Pir & Toothy - Counterpalooza.
Arcades, the Strategist - Another Brick in the Wall.
Zacama, Primal Calamity - Calamity of Double Mana.
Edgar Markov - Vampires Don't Die.
Child of Alara - Dreamcrusher.
Well if they ban Mana Crypt like I'm suggesting AND implement a full mulligan, you wouldn't have had that issue.
My deck I played last week had a turn 0 god hand in it with 6 cards also. I'm sure if I played it enough I would eventually get it, but if I do I'm not going to get up in arms about how broken a particular card is, I'm going to recognize that my deck is the problem because I intentionally stuffed it to the gills with cheap mana acceleration and combo cards.
Misc. EDH Stuff: Commander Cube | Zombies (Horde)
Resources:Commander Rulings FAQ | Commander Deckbuilding Guide
Follow me on Twitter! @cryogen_mtg
I understand fluid playgroups, but you never have to play that person again. At least you knew on T1.
If everyone is playing equally "broken" stuff it can be fun, and fall within the social contract. Out of balance isn't, but that's true even if no one is playing anything people here would call "broken". If someone does the described play consistently, THEY are the issue. If someone does it on a god hand, shake it offto 'crazy junk happens in EDH'. I have been there, on both sides, and sometimes it sucks. Not all games can be epic, we have to strive to make as many of them epic as we can. I understand you think some particular bans would work towards that goal, maybe it would. But the thing is the people who make tough calls like that made it.
I keep using the same example:
2 land
Sol ring
Signet
Executioner's flail
Zurgo in command zone
Signets are not particularly broken
Zurgo isn't even close to broken
Executioner's flail is certainly FAR from broken
All of these cards are fair.
And yet it's still a T3 kill, which can kill someone before they see a third land.
The deck is not the problem. It's running fair voltron cards.
Sol ring is the problem. But it has to be run, because EVERYONE runs sol ring. Every fair, normally fun opening becomes unfair with sol ring
Or, worst case, the game is over quickly, and everyone shuffles up for a new game. And if the same player keeps starting with T1 Sol Ring over and over, his shuffling probably needs to be examined closely.
It is my sincere hope that getting rid of PP will have this effect. Now if we can just make something which allows people to be in the game from the start without fostering the T3 kill, we'll be golden. Vancouver+multiplayer might be it. The modified Gis mulligan might be it. Or it might just be in a fertile brain somewhere. We'll see.
You'll never hear a complaint from me any time you make an effort to keep cards in the card pool. Commander is awesome because you can play practically everything. There are a few cards I think are unbannable not just in a selfish for my own deck way, but not adding to the banned list is always a good decision.
I want to respond to this, but it is more suited for the new mulligan thread, so I responded here. I encourage everyone who also wishes to respond to do so there as well (if it's about mulligans).
Misc. EDH Stuff: Commander Cube | Zombies (Horde)
Resources:Commander Rulings FAQ | Commander Deckbuilding Guide
Follow me on Twitter! @cryogen_mtg
For that specific combination of cards, the odds are pretty low. But that doesn't mean much. What's more relevant is how often the t2 narset play can happen off of god hands.
With Partial paris mulligans? It's more likely than you think.
Let's see, assuming those aren't the only mana rocks the narset player runs, I can think of a few more that can enable an early narset. Also swiftfoot boots is another card that can replace lightning greaves. Mass Hysteria too. Being conservative, there are probably about 12 successes in the population (another signet, chrome mox, mox diamond, simian spirit guide, rituals, etc, etc). With partial paris, he can mulligan down to 5 cards, and draw the 6th. With a free mull (that seems to be the standard on cockatrice, your group may vary), that means he can see up to 26 cards in his deck, if he's really digging. (7+7+6+5+1). This is hardly exact, but it's close enough. We can use the Hypergeometric distribution to calculate the probability.
There are 99 cards in the population
26 cards in the sample size
12 cards in his deck that can enable the t2 narset.
We require six of those cards in this example.
Plug that all in to a hypergeometric distribution calculator, and you get about 4% odds of the turn 2 narset happening. Hardly lottery winning levels. And I was being extremely conservative with the amount of cards that let it happen. Throw in some more mana rocks, rituals, etc, and I think the odds jump way up. For instance, if there are 20 cards in your deck that can enable a t2 narset, then under this model you have a roughly 20% chance of plopping her down on t2. But that's less relevant, because decks like that aren't the format's concern.
It's not an exact simulation of partial paris mulligans. For instance, having a success card in your initial hand reduces your ability to partial Paris, and thus reduces the sample size. A proper calculation would probably run a distribution at each stage of the partial paris, and then for each possible outcome of that, and then for each possible outcome after a partial paris of those. That seems like a lot of work though, and I don't think it would change the results that much. Further, it doesn't differentiate between cards. A sol ring is more of a success/boost than a mox diamond for instance.
And finally, it doesn't take into account lands. Adding lands into the calculation would definitely increase the odds of god like hands that enable t2 narset, though I have no idea how to model that. As a wild guess from personal experience playing decks with fast mana and lands, it doesn't seem off to say there's maybe a 10% chance of 6 mana plays happening on turn 2 in a deck with the efficient rocks.
First of all - show some damned respect. Sheldon, papa_funk, and the rest of the RC are legends in the magic scene. If you've watched pro tour footage you've probably seen Sheldon judging final tables. He understands competitive magic, and doesn't need a lesson on broken cards.
Secondly - they didn't just invent this wonderful format that we all love, they defined its guiding philosophy which has been the reason for its popularity and growth. This vision of EDH that has been continually challenged for these last ~10 pages or so IS what EDH is.
Perhaps instead of lecturing them on things you *think* they don't understand, stop and listen. There is wisdom and experience behind this philosophy, and if you make some effort to understand and appreciate it you might start to realize that it isn't "inconsistent" or "flawed" - it's actually beautiful.
I'm speaking as a guy who, at first, thought it was ridiculous that sol ring was legal. If you search my username on the now-retiring wotc forums, you'll see me making the same exact points that are being made now. Like EXACTLY. But that was a long time ago and I 'get it' now. And if you open your mind a little, you could too.
And you really should, because believe me, group magic is WAY more fun this way. Deckbuilding....somewhat less so, I'll admit. There is a certain pleasure to be found in tuning a decklist to near-perfection. But as far as actually sitting down for a game with others and enjoying the process of playing? Not even close...embracing the casual EDH philosophy is the way.
I see a lot of examples given, none of them actually applicable. Many of you are confusing banlist problems with social problems.
A guy dumping a bunch of mana rocks and winning uninteractively is not a banlist problem - that's a job for the social contract.
A guy enjoying a great start for krenko, or his voltron general can be fine - but if he decides to use that to focus one single opponent out of the game in 2 swings - that's another social issue too, believe it or not.
Casual play is all about understanding that sometimes it's worth sacrificing some %age of your win rate to ensure the game is more fun for your peers. And that includes everything from deck-building, to deciding who to attack.
That being said, if you're playing a Narset deck with 26 mana rocks with the intention of being able to play her turn 2, your playgroup should be playing equivalently powerful decks or you're just being a dick.
Just to clarify: my math wasn't based on you having 26 mana rocks in your deck. It assumed 12 mana rocks. The 26 is the sample size of cards you can conceivably see by partial parising.
So first you have 7 cards. Then you partial paris all 7 away and take the free mull (Yes, I realize this is insanely broken, but it's the culture that's developed)for another 7. Then you mull those away and get 6 cards. Then you mull those away and get 5. Then you keep and draw 1. That's a total of 26 cards that you have gotten to see. I know it doesn't exactly track the actual scenario, but it's a good number to base the estimate off of. I am admittedly an armchair mathematician with no qualifications, so feel free to pick it apart.
Getting to see up to 26 cards with partial paris mulling, and with 12 possible cards that enable the god hand in your deck, the odds work out to about a 4% chance of drawing some version of your god hand.
That's VERY VERY different from draw 7, keep or chuck, draw 7, keep or chuck, draw 6, keep or chuck, draw 5+1.
It's more like draw 7, keep the acceleration and chuck the rest, then draw that many, etc. because of Partial Paris.