I've been playing Commander for a few years now, having started shortly after the release of the first commander pre cons, I quickly dropped standard and went head first into commander.
At first, I was god awful, but over time I got much much better, to the point where I can now safely say I'm really really good at commander.
But as I got better, and I started paying more attention, and actually caring about the game, I noticed something awful.
The vast vast majority of players who seem to play 3-5 player commander (sometimes more) Have terrible or non existent threat assessment.
It's gotten to the point where it's sometimes just frustrating to play with them.
So the point of this thread, is so I can ask if anyone else has to deal with this like I'm trying to, or is this just me caring too much.
And on a side note, if you do notice this kind of poor play, why don't we share story's about when threat assessment went terribly wrong.
Hell yeah there are people out there with terribad threat assessment. Hell, I remember one game where a guy was gunning for me the entire game (to the point of ignoring the combo player with a Consecrated Sphinx) solely because I'm the organizer for the league.
I'm usually the target in EDH because I'm the best at Standard, Modern, and Legacy in my whole group, yet funnily enough I'm the poorest player I know at EDH yet I'm always considered the threat.
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Not just in EDH, but multiplayer in general, I've had to deal with people who seem to bear a grudge because I blew up their cool thing or did some early game damage to them, and so they'll focus on me even when someone else is clearly winning. They seem to care more about getting even than making the right plays.
I have people with bad threat assessment that regularly play EDH in a tournament at my LGS on tuesdays. I tend to regularly play Nekusar, which I understand will draw some hate, but there is a Riku player who always(yes I do mean always) either places 1st or top 4, because everyone wastes their resources and he just sits there ramping like crazy(He has 2 different infinites in his deck that he uses)
A lot of players, especially players that are less experienced with different decktypes and common card combo's will only do a threat assesment based on what they see and what is happening to them. They don't look ahead because they simply don't know what can follow.
That said a lot of players also underestimate 'hidden' threats such as ramping, pillowfort and such. They figure it's no big deal since "nothing is on the field yet". Which starts becoming a problen when they 'waste' all their removal on the cannon fodder before the big bombs and combo's start hitting the field.
That said a lot of players also underestimate 'hidden' threats such as ramping, pillowfort and such. They figure it's no big deal since "nothing is on the field yet". Which starts becoming a problen when they 'waste' all their removal on the cannon fodder before the big bombs and combo's start hitting the field.
Oh god yes. If someone's doing nothing but droppping lands and mana rocks or even worse, dropping lands and rocks and drawing cards, unless there's an immediate must answer threat on the board, they are the prime target. A board empty of everything but mana (and maybe a couple of defenisve cards) is a clear sign someone's up to something...
Hi, new here, but have recently got back into MTG, and especially commander. I am terrible at threat assessment when it comes to cards and combos, but I can tell out of our group of four who we need to worry about first. The issue though is that we are there to have fun and see what crazy things will happen, not necessarily to win the game (we don't play with commander damage). If we played to win as quickly as possible, then only one of us would ever win and thus ruining the fun.
I had a moment where I didn't tutor for Garruck's Wake, but rather Varaska instead, just because I wanted to try something different rather than going for the board wipe. Didn't matter because I ended up top decking it anyways, and still didn't help. Damn Token creators after death...
What usually screws me over in my meta is when I'm playing against Prossh, Skyraider of Kher and Sen Triplets. Sen triplets is a grindy control deck that usually just wins by having an overwhelming board presence, and Prossh, well Prossh is Prossh. The dragon is usually a kill on sight card, but by the time we've wasted our removal slowing down Prossh, Sen Triplets have gained the upper hand through a few turns of ramp, and usually dropping a Darksteel Forge. If we target the Triplets first then prossh will explode into play and win in 2/3 consecutive turns. I never know what to do.
This is why board wipes, removal, more board wipes, and recursion are so good. No one in this format knows what a threat is, so it's easier to just blow stuff up.
My favorite play of all time was a 7 minute turn around turn 20. There was an omniscience in play, and the player concluded acidic slime targeting sol ring was the correct play because "sol ring is overpowered." The player with omniscience (who had no cards in hand) drew into mind spring for 8 which became 25 shortly after. His hand came down on the board followed by the blue myojin........ I'm not sure if this was poor threat assessment or stupidity, but it's painfully common in this format. I'm used to drafting and it's no where this bad (and i've played along the east coast and Canada). This is why I feel like I'm better than most people, because I blow up omniscience over sol ring.
I agree. We should all only play g/x decks because they are the most objectively fun and anyone who disagrees does not know the truth about EDH. Everyone should just play their decks because interaction beyond high fiving about how many land are in play is unfun and equivalent to casting Stasis while kicking puppies. I for one will never play with anyone who casts tutors, removal spells, blue cards, things I arbitrarily decide I don't like but will probably cast myself later.
Threat assessment in EDH is strange because you have to take in to account so many other factors beyond current board state.
If you know you are playing combo players you have to deal with them based off what they might do. If you are playing unfamiliar opponents you have to deal with them based off commander reputation. This all has to be tempered with the randomness that is a 99 card singleton deck. All the factors often lead to plays that seem like poor threat assessment but aren't necessarily.
Is it a bad play to blow up the combo players mana rocks when the aggro player has better, more threatening targets? Maybe. But you never now if that combo player just wins his next turn if he has those rocks. While you know you have time to find answers for the aggro player. Is it wrong to over target the player using a commander known for combo while another player goes largely unmolested? Probably. But you can't know someone is playing a sub optimal deck until you've played against it a few times.
Most other formats are different because you usually know the near exact makeup of your opponents deck by t2 or t3. Just off their plays. So the element of making plays based off guessing an opponents deck is much easier. Also, most other formats aren't mp.
Threat assessment in EDH is strange because you have to take in to account so many other factors beyond current board state.
This is an important point that some overlook when talking about threat assessment. The unseen is often as important as the seen. Sometimes the best decisions aren't always apparent based on the board state. Board states rarely ever exist in a vacuum, but sometimes people forget this.
There's been quite alot of games that ended just because one of the newer players/ people that does not understand threat assessment didn't figure out what they should've done.
Sometimes it was because they had a grudge against a certain player and wanted to deal 10 damage to him/her.
This is what I read from the OP: "I started something awhile ago and have gotten better at that thing. Now I notice a disparity in skill levels amongst those I do that thing with."
You could change the nouns and post this on any occupation/hobby forum in the world and it'd be about the same.
Threat assessment is a skill people develop if they chose to develop as a player. Some people are better than other, some people don't care, and some don't even know that it's a thing. But it's really just part of doing anything. I just recommend you not talk down to them and think of them as inferior people even though it sounds like you have moved ahead of where they are in their game.
I remember a time when my threat assessment was awful. I would attack at people because of certain cards on the field. Most would go *rolls eyes* "ok then..." I would ask for feedback and others would point out a combo potential by another player, or cards in hand/card advantage person.
I recently played a game with Sakashima the Impostor where I had Kami of the Crescent moon, Sakashima as a clone of him, Howling Mine, and Dictate of Kruphix all in play at the same time. It was all for the sake of hoping my opponents would cover the board in creatures for me to steal and kill them with, which they did. All was going according to plan so far, I had no counterspells but i did have 3 boardwipes. The game was fairly balanced with me having flying blockers and the other two players having roughly equal creature-covered fields, where if anyone swung they'd probably die to someone else's board.
Then the Surrak Dragonclaw player played omniscience with a hand full of draw spells I had given him with my group hug effects, and proceeded to make plays that drew half of his deck into hand while tapped out from dropping omniscience, saying he had about 5 or 6 counterspells in hand after that.
What I would've done for a Wipe Away or Krosan Grip, or any counterspell for that matter. Since I didn't have it to prevent the omniscience shenanigans in the first place, we all scooped. Felt bad for playing group hug. If it wasn't for that damnable omniscience I could've kept it under control.
Moral of the story about threat assessment: Don't overdo the group hug to the point where people draw 5 cards a turn unless if you already have the really strong answers on hand, like split second spells. I should've gotten one of those and probably dug my Teferi, Mage of Zhalfir out before I did such risky hug plays.
What usually screws me over in my meta is when I'm playing against Prossh, Skyraider of Kher and Sen Triplets. Sen triplets is a grindy control deck that usually just wins by having an overwhelming board presence, and Prossh, well Prossh is Prossh. The dragon is usually a kill on sight card, but by the time we've wasted our removal slowing down Prossh, Sen Triplets have gained the upper hand through a few turns of ramp, and usually dropping a Darksteel Forge. If we target the Triplets first then prossh will explode into play and win in 2/3 consecutive turns. I never know what to do.
I recently played a game with Sakashima the Impostor where I had Kami of the Crescent moon, Sakashima as a clone of him, Howling Mine, and Dictate of Kruphix all in play at the same time. It was all for the sake of hoping my opponents would cover the board in creatures for me to steal and kill them with, which they did. All was going according to plan so far, I had no counterspells but i did have 3 boardwipes. The game was fairly balanced with me having flying blockers and the other two players having roughly equal creature-covered fields, where if anyone swung they'd probably die to someone else's board.
Then the Surrak Dragonclaw player played omniscience with a hand full of draw spells I had given him with my group hug effects, and proceeded to make plays that drew half of his deck into hand while tapped out from dropping omniscience, saying he had about 5 or 6 counterspells in hand after that.
What I would've done for a Wipe Away or Krosan Grip, or any counterspell for that matter. Since I didn't have it to prevent the omniscience shenanigans in the first place, we all scooped. Felt bad for playing group hug. If it wasn't for that damnable omniscience I could've kept it under control.
Moral of the story about threat assessment: Don't overdo the group hug to the point where people draw 5 cards a turn unless if you already have the really strong answers on hand, like split second spells. I should've gotten one of those and probably dug my Teferi, Mage of Zhalfir out before I did such risky hug plays.
Yeah, I mean, Group Hug is often just Kingmaker. I'd try to remove some of those group hug cards.
Threat assessment has been a constant problem since the dawn of multiplayer.
The only really solution is politics. Try to use game state and knowledge of your opponents decks to deflect.
More aggressive decks do have problems in which they will take hate despite getting behind after the first boardwipe, you just have to accept that will happen and hope to weather the first wave of hate then try to deflect it afterwards, long enough to get into resursion or reach stage of your deck to steal games.
I also have a very annoying deck, that packs all sorts of hate but doesn't win so fast on its own. The hate cards attract hate from people for whom cards in their hands are being invalidated and they try to destroy the hate or kill me. (I have put in a lot of life gain to try to survive into later game). I know this will happen but my deck is also acting as the police for other decks and I can use that to political advantage in a multiplayer game. "Ok so you can't use your sol ring but he can't use his birthing pod you should let me keep this stony silence". Also bring up other games in the past, " you shouldn't destroy my Rest in Peace remember the last time you did that and he took infinite turns, he already has the archeomancer in play."
I have a friend whoes decks aren't even that good but he is great at politics and wins games because of it.
And I have another friend who is completely immune to it. "YOU KILLED MY FAVOURITE CREATURE WITH WRATH OF GOD YOU DIE NOW" "Umm but he was going to kill us all with his huge board if I didn't" "DON'T CARE YOU DIE"
Having a reputation as a complete psycho who will retaliate against any attack on his board/life even at the cost of the game can also be a long term strategy for discouraging early aggression against him.
Having a reputation as a complete psycho who will retaliate against any attack on his board/life even at the cost of the game can also be a long term strategy for discouraging early aggression against him.
Lol. I think you're right: we're looking at this the wrong way. Poor threat assessment isn't a problem; it's a strategy!
To contribute to the thread, though, threat assessment really is an acquired skill. I'm sure I've told this story a billion times, but it's worth mentioning again. I was playing 4-man FFA with my mono-White angels/equipment against Radha, Teferi, and Sharuum. Radha was not only ramping but also dropping small creatures that either got bigger or multiplied. Radha also had Stranglehold and Vexing Shusher, so he could easily make his spells incounterable while preventing us from finding answers. Teferi was on the board, but besides that, no one besides Radha had much of a presence beyond a few mana rocks.
I had instant-speed spot removal in hand, but Radha's board was overflowing. And Teferi was out anyways, so I would have had to cast it on my turn regardless. I finally drew a Wrath and cast it.
Me: "Aha! Finally! Take that!"
Radha: "I thought that might be coming soon." (Starts to pick up creatures.)
Sharuum: "Phew, thanks."
Teferi: "Counterspell."
We all -- yes, even the Radha player -- look at him, utterly bewildered.
Me: "W-why? Can't you see he's going to kill us all next turn?"
Teferi: "Because I can, and because I don't want Teferi to cost more..."
Radha puts his creatures back on the board and proceeds to kill Teferi. (Sharuum and I scooped because we had no other answers.)
Some people can't be reasoned with; some people just want to watch the world burn.
It's one of my biggest pet peeves when people act irrationally. It's one thing if you are just a bad player, but nothing infuriates me more than if you know better and still make sub-optimal plays, which happens all the time.
Teferi: "Because I can, and because I don't want Teferi to cost more..."
In my playgroup I have a player who does the same things. He's our 'chaos' factor, he can have his mind set on 1 person all game if you did a specific thing, sometimes randomly cast spells to remove things which aren't really a threat and when he's about to die he goes ham, usually on one specific player.
And oftentimes he just does things because he can and thinks they're funny. When you're not the target of such plays it can actually be kind of funny at times since it's unpredictable to play with.
But the simple fact is, he lacks experience which gives him poor threat assessment although when he's in a 'calm' mood (i.e. noone 'aggro-ed' him yet) he can often be persueded to do the 'right' thing.
Threat assessment has been a constant problem since the dawn of multiplayer.
The only really solution is politics. Try to use game state and knowledge of your opponents decks to deflect.
More aggressive decks do have problems in which they will take hate despite getting behind after the first boardwipe, you just have to accept that will happen and hope to weather the first wave of hate then try to deflect it afterwards, long enough to get into resursion or reach stage of your deck to steal games.
I also have a very annoying deck, that packs all sorts of hate but doesn't win so fast on its own. The hate cards attract hate from people for whom cards in their hands are being invalidated and they try to destroy the hate or kill me. (I have put in a lot of life gain to try to survive into later game). I know this will happen but my deck is also acting as the police for other decks and I can use that to political advantage in a multiplayer game. "Ok so you can't use your sol ring but he can't use his birthing pod you should let me keep this stony silence". Also bring up other games in the past, " you shouldn't destroy my Rest in Peace remember the last time you did that and he took infinite turns, he already has the archeomancer in play."
I have a friend whoes decks aren't even that good but he is great at politics and wins games because of it.
And I have another friend who is completely immune to it. "YOU KILLED MY FAVOURITE CREATURE WITH WRATH OF GOD YOU DIE NOW" "Umm but he was going to kill us all with his huge board if I didn't" "DON'T CARE YOU DIE"
Honestly, this is one of the things that I hate about politics: it stunts players' growth. I have seen so many times when a new player is trying to decide what's a threat, and 3 other players start yelling at them about "no, no, no! My [insert huge threat here] isn't as bad as Timmy's [insert less threatening threat]." "No, kill that other thing. My C. Sphinx isn't doing anything, blow up that Sol Ring - it's OP!!"
That's a massive obstacle to overcome for new players, and seeing them being held back by smooth talking players is super frustrating to me. if people want to their peers to get better at Threat Assessment, they need to start educating people, not playing them.
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At first, I was god awful, but over time I got much much better, to the point where I can now safely say I'm really really good at commander.
But as I got better, and I started paying more attention, and actually caring about the game, I noticed something awful.
The vast vast majority of players who seem to play 3-5 player commander (sometimes more) Have terrible or non existent threat assessment.
It's gotten to the point where it's sometimes just frustrating to play with them.
So the point of this thread, is so I can ask if anyone else has to deal with this like I'm trying to, or is this just me caring too much.
And on a side note, if you do notice this kind of poor play, why don't we share story's about when threat assessment went terribly wrong.
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WUBRG Scion of the Ur-Dragon, Worship the Dragon
I have seen grudges, master durdlers, play a specific card, make someone ragequit, and all sorts of other "wins."
Cheers!
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That said a lot of players also underestimate 'hidden' threats such as ramping, pillowfort and such. They figure it's no big deal since "nothing is on the field yet". Which starts becoming a problen when they 'waste' all their removal on the cannon fodder before the big bombs and combo's start hitting the field.
Oh god yes. If someone's doing nothing but droppping lands and mana rocks or even worse, dropping lands and rocks and drawing cards, unless there's an immediate must answer threat on the board, they are the prime target. A board empty of everything but mana (and maybe a couple of defenisve cards) is a clear sign someone's up to something...
I had a moment where I didn't tutor for Garruck's Wake, but rather Varaska instead, just because I wanted to try something different rather than going for the board wipe. Didn't matter because I ended up top decking it anyways, and still didn't help. Damn Token creators after death...
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My favorite play of all time was a 7 minute turn around turn 20. There was an omniscience in play, and the player concluded acidic slime targeting sol ring was the correct play because "sol ring is overpowered." The player with omniscience (who had no cards in hand) drew into mind spring for 8 which became 25 shortly after. His hand came down on the board followed by the blue myojin........ I'm not sure if this was poor threat assessment or stupidity, but it's painfully common in this format. I'm used to drafting and it's no where this bad (and i've played along the east coast and Canada). This is why I feel like I'm better than most people, because I blow up omniscience over sol ring.
If you know you are playing combo players you have to deal with them based off what they might do. If you are playing unfamiliar opponents you have to deal with them based off commander reputation. This all has to be tempered with the randomness that is a 99 card singleton deck. All the factors often lead to plays that seem like poor threat assessment but aren't necessarily.
Is it a bad play to blow up the combo players mana rocks when the aggro player has better, more threatening targets? Maybe. But you never now if that combo player just wins his next turn if he has those rocks. While you know you have time to find answers for the aggro player. Is it wrong to over target the player using a commander known for combo while another player goes largely unmolested? Probably. But you can't know someone is playing a sub optimal deck until you've played against it a few times.
Most other formats are different because you usually know the near exact makeup of your opponents deck by t2 or t3. Just off their plays. So the element of making plays based off guessing an opponents deck is much easier. Also, most other formats aren't mp.
EDH Decks:
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BRGProssh, Eater of the Blue MageBRG
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UBInspired SirenUB
This is an important point that some overlook when talking about threat assessment. The unseen is often as important as the seen. Sometimes the best decisions aren't always apparent based on the board state. Board states rarely ever exist in a vacuum, but sometimes people forget this.
Sometimes it was because they had a grudge against a certain player and wanted to deal 10 damage to him/her.
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You could change the nouns and post this on any occupation/hobby forum in the world and it'd be about the same.
Threat assessment is a skill people develop if they chose to develop as a player. Some people are better than other, some people don't care, and some don't even know that it's a thing. But it's really just part of doing anything. I just recommend you not talk down to them and think of them as inferior people even though it sounds like you have moved ahead of where they are in their game.
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Purphoros, God of the Forge: Global Punishment
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Edric, Spymaster of Trest: Donald's list
Then the Surrak Dragonclaw player played omniscience with a hand full of draw spells I had given him with my group hug effects, and proceeded to make plays that drew half of his deck into hand while tapped out from dropping omniscience, saying he had about 5 or 6 counterspells in hand after that.
What I would've done for a Wipe Away or Krosan Grip, or any counterspell for that matter. Since I didn't have it to prevent the omniscience shenanigans in the first place, we all scooped. Felt bad for playing group hug. If it wasn't for that damnable omniscience I could've kept it under control.
Moral of the story about threat assessment: Don't overdo the group hug to the point where people draw 5 cards a turn unless if you already have the really strong answers on hand, like split second spells. I should've gotten one of those and probably dug my Teferi, Mage of Zhalfir out before I did such risky hug plays.
Race them both. Play something faster.
Yeah, I mean, Group Hug is often just Kingmaker. I'd try to remove some of those group hug cards.
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The only really solution is politics. Try to use game state and knowledge of your opponents decks to deflect.
More aggressive decks do have problems in which they will take hate despite getting behind after the first boardwipe, you just have to accept that will happen and hope to weather the first wave of hate then try to deflect it afterwards, long enough to get into resursion or reach stage of your deck to steal games.
I also have a very annoying deck, that packs all sorts of hate but doesn't win so fast on its own. The hate cards attract hate from people for whom cards in their hands are being invalidated and they try to destroy the hate or kill me. (I have put in a lot of life gain to try to survive into later game). I know this will happen but my deck is also acting as the police for other decks and I can use that to political advantage in a multiplayer game. "Ok so you can't use your sol ring but he can't use his birthing pod you should let me keep this stony silence". Also bring up other games in the past, " you shouldn't destroy my Rest in Peace remember the last time you did that and he took infinite turns, he already has the archeomancer in play."
I have a friend whoes decks aren't even that good but he is great at politics and wins games because of it.
And I have another friend who is completely immune to it. "YOU KILLED MY FAVOURITE CREATURE WITH WRATH OF GOD YOU DIE NOW" "Umm but he was going to kill us all with his huge board if I didn't" "DON'T CARE YOU DIE"
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GB Glissa, the traitor: Army of Cans
UW Dragonlord Ojutai: Dragonlord NOjutai
UWGDerevi, Empyrial Tactician "you cannot fight the storm"
R Zirilan of the claw. The solution to every problem is dragons
UB Etrata, the Silencer Cloning assassination
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Lol. I think you're right: we're looking at this the wrong way. Poor threat assessment isn't a problem; it's a strategy!
To contribute to the thread, though, threat assessment really is an acquired skill. I'm sure I've told this story a billion times, but it's worth mentioning again. I was playing 4-man FFA with my mono-White angels/equipment against Radha, Teferi, and Sharuum. Radha was not only ramping but also dropping small creatures that either got bigger or multiplied. Radha also had Stranglehold and Vexing Shusher, so he could easily make his spells incounterable while preventing us from finding answers. Teferi was on the board, but besides that, no one besides Radha had much of a presence beyond a few mana rocks.
I had instant-speed spot removal in hand, but Radha's board was overflowing. And Teferi was out anyways, so I would have had to cast it on my turn regardless. I finally drew a Wrath and cast it.
Me: "Aha! Finally! Take that!"
Radha: "I thought that might be coming soon." (Starts to pick up creatures.)
Sharuum: "Phew, thanks."
Teferi: "Counterspell."
We all -- yes, even the Radha player -- look at him, utterly bewildered.
Me: "W-why? Can't you see he's going to kill us all next turn?"
Teferi: "Because I can, and because I don't want Teferi to cost more..."
Radha puts his creatures back on the board and proceeds to kill Teferi. (Sharuum and I scooped because we had no other answers.)
Some people can't be reasoned with; some people just want to watch the world burn.
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In my playgroup I have a player who does the same things. He's our 'chaos' factor, he can have his mind set on 1 person all game if you did a specific thing, sometimes randomly cast spells to remove things which aren't really a threat and when he's about to die he goes ham, usually on one specific player.
And oftentimes he just does things because he can and thinks they're funny. When you're not the target of such plays it can actually be kind of funny at times since it's unpredictable to play with.
But the simple fact is, he lacks experience which gives him poor threat assessment although when he's in a 'calm' mood (i.e. noone 'aggro-ed' him yet) he can often be persueded to do the 'right' thing.
Honestly, this is one of the things that I hate about politics: it stunts players' growth. I have seen so many times when a new player is trying to decide what's a threat, and 3 other players start yelling at them about "no, no, no! My [insert huge threat here] isn't as bad as Timmy's [insert less threatening threat]." "No, kill that other thing. My C. Sphinx isn't doing anything, blow up that Sol Ring - it's OP!!"
That's a massive obstacle to overcome for new players, and seeing them being held back by smooth talking players is super frustrating to me. if people want to their peers to get better at Threat Assessment, they need to start educating people, not playing them.
R8whackR
WUBGAtraxa Stax-Superfriends *Under Construction*WUBG