OK - degenerate time. I'm looking to put together a Limited Resources deck, and here is what I have as a first draft - no testing done at all yet. Wanted to get some thoughts.
First thing is that I'm figuring to put in Gemstone Cavernsx4 in there... seems like a pretty low opportunity cost. It obviously stands to make Serra Avenger harder to cast if it's not in my opening hand, but I don't think its going to be a big deal.
It should be noted that I do not have any MLDs in here, because I will not be keeping hands without Limited Resources or Enlightened Tutor in them, making MLDs pretty useless. I suppose a couple Disenchants for a couple Serra Avengers may not be a bad idea.
Don't forget about the "very high upside" aspect of the equation. The card is bonkers if it's in your opening hand since hitting 3 or even 4 lands (rare but possible) provides you with an insurmountable advantage.
4x LR 4x E.Tutor and 4x Serum Powder is overkill. Otherwise the worst cards in the deck are Mom, Student of Warfare, Serra Avenger and Plow. Not "you must cut these" but "if you're looking for cuts start here." Start with Students, then Serras, then Plows and finally Moms if needed.
Yeah I figured. Whenever I build a combo like that, I overdo the pieces prior to testing, and then shave until I can't shave anymore. As someone who has fielded this archetype, what numbers have you settled into? I'm pretty sure 4x E. Tutor is correct, since I can pull LA with it too.
Yeah I figured. Whenever I build a combo like that, I overdo the pieces prior to testing, and then shave until I can't shave anymore. As someone who has fielded this archetype, what numbers have you settled into? I'm pretty sure 4x E. Tutor is correct, since I can pull LA with it too.
I only field 2x E.Tutor in my build and here's the math why:
Assume that you're willing to mull to 6 cards and that on your mull to 6 you'll Scry any non-LR/E.Tutor card if your opening 6 doesn't contain it. The probability of seeing an LR/E.Tutor in your 7 card hands in 54%. That's basic hypergemetric distribution and requires no explanation. Assuming that you blindly keep on 6 you'll see 6 cards, Scry a 7th to bottom (assuming that it's not LR/E.Tutor obv) and then your 8th card (your draw step) gives you 1 additional look. This bumps the probability up to 59% for your 6 card hand since you get to see up to 8 cards total.
Now we apply some basic conditional probability and calculate 0.54 + (1-0.54)(0.54) + (1-0.54)(1-0.54)(0.59) = 91% (note that all of the numbers were rounded-down for simplicity so that's a under-representation of the actual figure)
That is, assuming that you're willing to blindly mull 7-7-6 + Scry 1 looking for an LR/E.Tutor then more than nine times out of ten you'll have a 6+ card starting hand that contains one. Assuming that you're willing to mull lower than number increases but I offset that value based on the small number of games when you see unkeepable 6+ cards hands that contain an LR. They're few and far between between but it's not impossible.
Anyways, for me MP is about weighing risks and rewards. Having a deck that functions 90% of the time is "acceptable" for me and I think that E.Tutor is a poor Magic card in general. It's a slow 2-for-1 and it has terribly synergy with Thalia and Spheres and such. I don't care about Luminarch Ascension, I don't want to tutor for ramp, all I want is my turn 1-2 LR and that's it. So no, I don't field 4x E.Tutor myself because I don't think that it's a great card in general and the 3rd and 4th provide such diminishing returns.
Still, hey, do what you want. If you like E.Tutor as a card then field more. If you don't want to "fail" 10% of the time then feel free to add more. Again, I think that the card is quite poor and I want to field as few as possible. 6 is the number that tested the best for me and there's reasonable math to support it. Clearly 91% isn't some absolute, irrefutable figure though. You can draw the line wherever you want. I'm content with > 90% in multiplayer because I'm generally not expecting to win a large % of games regardless.
Thoughts? Questions on numbers? Is the card draw from SoFaI worth slotting in with the SFM package? StP is seeming increasingly pointless... that could potentialy free up a couple spot for more hate and/or SoFaI.
Naturally, the first game I played I went 7-7-6-5, Scry to bottom, and two draw steps with no Enlightened Tutor/Limited Resources. lol...
After that game, deck has been steller. Only thing I will say is that with Æther Vial + all the non-creature spell tax, I'm tempted to take out some number of Luminarch Ascensions for Brimaz, King of Oreskos and try him out. Probably start by trying 3 LA and 1 Brimaz.
After that game, deck has been steller. Only thing I will say is that with Æther Vial + all the non-creature spell tax, I'm tempted to take out some number of Luminarch Ascensions for Brimaz, King of Oreskos and try him out. Probably start by trying 3 LA and 1 Brimaz.
Solid points. I'll have have to try some of them. Not sure new Thalia is where I want to be in a deck that already wrecks people's lands, but I could be wrong. She still could be pretty useful. Spirit of Laberimth helps protect me from Storm, which can still go off with only a couple lands.
Solid points. I'll have have to try some of them. Not sure new Thalia is where I want to be in a deck that already wrecks people's lands, but I could be wrong. She still could be pretty useful. Spirit of Laberimth helps protect me from Storm, which can still go off with only a couple lands.
You're probably thinking of Eidolon of Rhetoric which is typically just weaker than Ethersworn Canonist. Both have their uses though. That being said I've never seen a Storm deck beat a LR + Thalia opener and if you manage to stick any other lockpiece (Thorn, Wingmare) they're drawing dead. The reason why I like Spirit of the Labyrinth is because it shuts down cards like Brainstorm and Trade Secrets that can dig you into whatever it is that you need. It's also fantastic against Wheels which, again, unfair combo decks tend to lean heavily on.
Oops I was thinking Ethersworn Canonist. Not sure why I got those mixed up. I've beat Thalia playing ANT with a single land in play before (Abrupt Decay with no Karakas down on their end step using two Lotus Petals that I already had down from T1). Limited Resources isn't played in DnT obviously in duels, but Thalia can be beat. That being said, you do kinda have to get lucky to do it...
I do like Spirit of the Labyrinth for sure, and will test it in there. Stopping extra card draw is a very real thing.
So, the deck is humming along nicely. I'm down to two LAs, and I've added 2x Sanctum Prelate. Card is a beating. Otherwise, not much has changed. Different hate bears go in from time to time if I know what I'll be facing, and usually Serras come out for them.
So, the deck is humming along nicely. I'm down to two LAs, and I've added 2x Sanctum Prelate. Card is a beating. Otherwise, not much has changed. Different hate bears go in from time to time if I know what I'll be facing, and usually Serras come out for them.
I tested Sanctum Prelate but felt that it was almost strictly worse than Vryn Wingmare every single time that I cast it. I've never lost a game to generic creatures with this style of deck (SFM fetching Umezawa's Jitte/Batterskull makes it impossible) and the combo of Thalia + Wingmare ostensibly makes all spells uncastable. In my experience this deck loses to cards like Nature's Claim, Swan Song, Abrupt Decay, Serenity, Abolish and Force of Will way more than anything else.
FWIW I also agree that LA is win-more. Back when I initially proposed them (I'm talking years back on the WOTC forums) the card was still like a dollar and the cool thing about LA is that some % of the time you run it out on turn 2 and untap with it active on turn 4. Not "100% of the time" or anything but enough that you notice it. Now it's finally starting to cost actual money so it's not the $1.00 auto-win machine that it used to be.
20 Plains
Creatures:
4 Mother of Runes
4 Student of Warfare
4 Serra Avenger
4 Stoneforge Mystic
4 Thalia, Guardian of Thraben
2 Swords to Plowshares
4 Enlightened Tutor
4 Limited Resources
1 Umezawa's Jitte
4 Luminarch Ascension
4 Serum Powder
1 Batterskull
First thing is that I'm figuring to put in Gemstone Cavernsx4 in there... seems like a pretty low opportunity cost. It obviously stands to make Serra Avenger harder to cast if it's not in my opening hand, but I don't think its going to be a big deal.
It should be noted that I do not have any MLDs in here, because I will not be keeping hands without Limited Resources or Enlightened Tutor in them, making MLDs pretty useless. I suppose a couple Disenchants for a couple Serra Avengers may not be a bad idea.
What else have people used? Thoughts?
My Powered 630 card Vintage Multiplayer Cube
cEDH: WUBR Blue Farm WUBR, UG Kinnan Flips UG, U Urza Scepter U
Don't forget about the "very high upside" aspect of the equation. The card is bonkers if it's in your opening hand since hitting 3 or even 4 lands (rare but possible) provides you with an insurmountable advantage.
Lotus Petal, Mox Diamond, Chrome Mox, Æther Vial, Thorn of Amethyst, Sphere of Resistance, Trinisphere, Vryn Wingmare
4x LR 4x E.Tutor and 4x Serum Powder is overkill. Otherwise the worst cards in the deck are Mom, Student of Warfare, Serra Avenger and Plow. Not "you must cut these" but "if you're looking for cuts start here." Start with Students, then Serras, then Plows and finally Moms if needed.
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Green - Blue - Red - White - Gold
Yeah I figured. Whenever I build a combo like that, I overdo the pieces prior to testing, and then shave until I can't shave anymore. As someone who has fielded this archetype, what numbers have you settled into? I'm pretty sure 4x E. Tutor is correct, since I can pull LA with it too.
My Powered 630 card Vintage Multiplayer Cube
cEDH: WUBR Blue Farm WUBR, UG Kinnan Flips UG, U Urza Scepter U
I only field 2x E.Tutor in my build and here's the math why:
Assume that you're willing to mull to 6 cards and that on your mull to 6 you'll Scry any non-LR/E.Tutor card if your opening 6 doesn't contain it. The probability of seeing an LR/E.Tutor in your 7 card hands in 54%. That's basic hypergemetric distribution and requires no explanation. Assuming that you blindly keep on 6 you'll see 6 cards, Scry a 7th to bottom (assuming that it's not LR/E.Tutor obv) and then your 8th card (your draw step) gives you 1 additional look. This bumps the probability up to 59% for your 6 card hand since you get to see up to 8 cards total.
Now we apply some basic conditional probability and calculate 0.54 + (1-0.54)(0.54) + (1-0.54)(1-0.54)(0.59) = 91% (note that all of the numbers were rounded-down for simplicity so that's a under-representation of the actual figure)
That is, assuming that you're willing to blindly mull 7-7-6 + Scry 1 looking for an LR/E.Tutor then more than nine times out of ten you'll have a 6+ card starting hand that contains one. Assuming that you're willing to mull lower than number increases but I offset that value based on the small number of games when you see unkeepable 6+ cards hands that contain an LR. They're few and far between between but it's not impossible.
Anyways, for me MP is about weighing risks and rewards. Having a deck that functions 90% of the time is "acceptable" for me and I think that E.Tutor is a poor Magic card in general. It's a slow 2-for-1 and it has terribly synergy with Thalia and Spheres and such. I don't care about Luminarch Ascension, I don't want to tutor for ramp, all I want is my turn 1-2 LR and that's it. So no, I don't field 4x E.Tutor myself because I don't think that it's a great card in general and the 3rd and 4th provide such diminishing returns.
Still, hey, do what you want. If you like E.Tutor as a card then field more. If you don't want to "fail" 10% of the time then feel free to add more. Again, I think that the card is quite poor and I want to field as few as possible. 6 is the number that tested the best for me and there's reasonable math to support it. Clearly 91% isn't some absolute, irrefutable figure though. You can draw the line wherever you want. I'm content with > 90% in multiplayer because I'm generally not expecting to win a large % of games regardless.
Guilds of Ravnica - Commander 2018 - Core 2019 - Battlebond - Dominaria - Rivals of Ixalan - Ixalan - Commander 2017 - Hour of Devastation - Amonket - Aether Revolt - Commander 2016 - Kaladesh - Conspiracy 2 - Eldritch Moon - Shadows Over Innistrad - Oath of the Gatewatch - Commander 2015 - Battle for Zendikar - Magic Origins - Dragons of Tarkir
Green - Blue - Red - White - Gold
My Powered 630 card Vintage Multiplayer Cube
cEDH: WUBR Blue Farm WUBR, UG Kinnan Flips UG, U Urza Scepter U
Assuming that you're content with ~91% then yes. You could always adjust it as you see fit though.
Guilds of Ravnica - Commander 2018 - Core 2019 - Battlebond - Dominaria - Rivals of Ixalan - Ixalan - Commander 2017 - Hour of Devastation - Amonket - Aether Revolt - Commander 2016 - Kaladesh - Conspiracy 2 - Eldritch Moon - Shadows Over Innistrad - Oath of the Gatewatch - Commander 2015 - Battle for Zendikar - Magic Origins - Dragons of Tarkir
Green - Blue - Red - White - Gold
90% is my goal in typical cases. 91% surpass it!
My Powered 630 card Vintage Multiplayer Cube
cEDH: WUBR Blue Farm WUBR, UG Kinnan Flips UG, U Urza Scepter U
16 Plains
4x Gemstone Caverns
Creatures:
4 Mother of Runes
4 Serra Avenger
4 Stoneforge Mystic
4 Thalia, Guardian of Thraben
2 Vryn Wingmare
4 Lotus Petal
4 Æther Vial
2 Enlightened Tutor
4 Limited Resources
2 Swords to Plowshares
4 Luminarch Ascension
1 Umezawa's Jitte
1 Batterskull
Thoughts? Questions on numbers? Is the card draw from SoFaI worth slotting in with the SFM package? StP is seeming increasingly pointless... that could potentialy free up a couple spot for more hate and/or SoFaI.
My Powered 630 card Vintage Multiplayer Cube
cEDH: WUBR Blue Farm WUBR, UG Kinnan Flips UG, U Urza Scepter U
A couple StPs never hurts. You never know what people will show up with.
Guilds of Ravnica - Commander 2018 - Core 2019 - Battlebond - Dominaria - Rivals of Ixalan - Ixalan - Commander 2017 - Hour of Devastation - Amonket - Aether Revolt - Commander 2016 - Kaladesh - Conspiracy 2 - Eldritch Moon - Shadows Over Innistrad - Oath of the Gatewatch - Commander 2015 - Battle for Zendikar - Magic Origins - Dragons of Tarkir
Green - Blue - Red - White - Gold
After that game, deck has been steller. Only thing I will say is that with Æther Vial + all the non-creature spell tax, I'm tempted to take out some number of Luminarch Ascensions for Brimaz, King of Oreskos and try him out. Probably start by trying 3 LA and 1 Brimaz.
My Powered 630 card Vintage Multiplayer Cube
cEDH: WUBR Blue Farm WUBR, UG Kinnan Flips UG, U Urza Scepter U
You could also consider trying thing like Leonin Arbiter, Spirit of the Labyrinth, Serene Master (the ultimate Wall, prevents people from teaming up on you somehow), Thalia, Heretic Cathar, Glowrider, etc. I find that generic beaters tend to lose out to actual Hate Bears.
Guilds of Ravnica - Commander 2018 - Core 2019 - Battlebond - Dominaria - Rivals of Ixalan - Ixalan - Commander 2017 - Hour of Devastation - Amonket - Aether Revolt - Commander 2016 - Kaladesh - Conspiracy 2 - Eldritch Moon - Shadows Over Innistrad - Oath of the Gatewatch - Commander 2015 - Battle for Zendikar - Magic Origins - Dragons of Tarkir
Green - Blue - Red - White - Gold
My Powered 630 card Vintage Multiplayer Cube
cEDH: WUBR Blue Farm WUBR, UG Kinnan Flips UG, U Urza Scepter U
You're probably thinking of Eidolon of Rhetoric which is typically just weaker than Ethersworn Canonist. Both have their uses though. That being said I've never seen a Storm deck beat a LR + Thalia opener and if you manage to stick any other lockpiece (Thorn, Wingmare) they're drawing dead. The reason why I like Spirit of the Labyrinth is because it shuts down cards like Brainstorm and Trade Secrets that can dig you into whatever it is that you need. It's also fantastic against Wheels which, again, unfair combo decks tend to lean heavily on.
Guilds of Ravnica - Commander 2018 - Core 2019 - Battlebond - Dominaria - Rivals of Ixalan - Ixalan - Commander 2017 - Hour of Devastation - Amonket - Aether Revolt - Commander 2016 - Kaladesh - Conspiracy 2 - Eldritch Moon - Shadows Over Innistrad - Oath of the Gatewatch - Commander 2015 - Battle for Zendikar - Magic Origins - Dragons of Tarkir
Green - Blue - Red - White - Gold
I do like Spirit of the Labyrinth for sure, and will test it in there. Stopping extra card draw is a very real thing.
My Powered 630 card Vintage Multiplayer Cube
cEDH: WUBR Blue Farm WUBR, UG Kinnan Flips UG, U Urza Scepter U
That would be:
P(X >=1) 0.54 + (1-0.54)(0.54) + (1-0.54)(1-0.54)(0.48) + (1-0.54)(1-0.54)(1-0.48)(0.59) = 0.95488688 = 95.488%
Spiking the 1/20 FeelsBadMan.
Guilds of Ravnica - Commander 2018 - Core 2019 - Battlebond - Dominaria - Rivals of Ixalan - Ixalan - Commander 2017 - Hour of Devastation - Amonket - Aether Revolt - Commander 2016 - Kaladesh - Conspiracy 2 - Eldritch Moon - Shadows Over Innistrad - Oath of the Gatewatch - Commander 2015 - Battle for Zendikar - Magic Origins - Dragons of Tarkir
Green - Blue - Red - White - Gold
Yeah, no kidding. Lol
My Powered 630 card Vintage Multiplayer Cube
cEDH: WUBR Blue Farm WUBR, UG Kinnan Flips UG, U Urza Scepter U
My Powered 630 card Vintage Multiplayer Cube
cEDH: WUBR Blue Farm WUBR, UG Kinnan Flips UG, U Urza Scepter U
I tested Sanctum Prelate but felt that it was almost strictly worse than Vryn Wingmare every single time that I cast it. I've never lost a game to generic creatures with this style of deck (SFM fetching Umezawa's Jitte/Batterskull makes it impossible) and the combo of Thalia + Wingmare ostensibly makes all spells uncastable. In my experience this deck loses to cards like Nature's Claim, Swan Song, Abrupt Decay, Serenity, Abolish and Force of Will way more than anything else.
FWIW I also agree that LA is win-more. Back when I initially proposed them (I'm talking years back on the WOTC forums) the card was still like a dollar and the cool thing about LA is that some % of the time you run it out on turn 2 and untap with it active on turn 4. Not "100% of the time" or anything but enough that you notice it. Now it's finally starting to cost actual money so it's not the $1.00 auto-win machine that it used to be.
Oh, for removal spells play either Fragmentize or Abolish. Disenchant variants are now a thing of the past.
Guilds of Ravnica - Commander 2018 - Core 2019 - Battlebond - Dominaria - Rivals of Ixalan - Ixalan - Commander 2017 - Hour of Devastation - Amonket - Aether Revolt - Commander 2016 - Kaladesh - Conspiracy 2 - Eldritch Moon - Shadows Over Innistrad - Oath of the Gatewatch - Commander 2015 - Battle for Zendikar - Magic Origins - Dragons of Tarkir
Green - Blue - Red - White - Gold