They have long since shown they are OK with the level of graveyard abuse, and do not see any current decks as a problem. They will likely hand-waive off Hogaak, just like they do Neoform. Unless it takes like 4+ Top 8 slots in back to back to back GPs thanks to London Mulligan, then maybe they might pretend like they care about all the fast combos and GY abuse. They'll share some stern words, and tell us "help is on the way in upcoming sets!" Meanwhile innocuous, fair, and considerably less powerful cards continue to rot on the banned list.
Neoform has 1 appearance in the last two MTGO Challenge top 32s, so it is not comparable with Hogaak. It is not safe to assume that WotC is OK with a lot of graveyard.
Quote from WotC on banning GGT »
Golgari Grave-Troll—Dredge, the mechanic and the deck, has a negative impact on Modern by pushing the format too far toward a battle of sideboards. With the printing of Cathartic Reunion and Prized Amalgam, the deck once again became unhealthy for the format. While those cards were discussed, the real offender always has been the dredge mechanic itself.
How do we break Scheming Symmetry? It's good mid-combo but not so hot pre-combo. It's great with Thought Scour, Jace, the Mind Sculptor's +2, or Ashiok, Dream Render's -1, but then you need an additional card. It's yet another way to enable Archive Trap. You can cast it at instant speed with Teferi, Time Raveler, but then you need to capitalize on the tempo gain fast before they inevitably draw into the answer they tutored for.
Probably not really breaking, but it does put Emrakul, the Aeons Torn on top of your deck, so you can cast it with Possibility Storm. Or cascade into a Living End or Restore Balance without worrying too much about 0, 1 and 2 CMC spells in your deck. Or Miracle spells are also very reliable with this card. All pretty janky, but it is interesting to have this kind of effect in Modern.
Four copies of Hogaak in the top 8, taking 1st to 3rd positions.
I still don't know whether it is a case of Eldrazi Winter or a case of Hollow One. Both decks were omnipresent but Hollow One decreased rapidly after the first few tournaments. Last week there were 11 Hogaak decks in the top 32, now only 6.
not sure what to say.. maybe it's just because the Hogaak deck is new?
It's not new on MTGO. Last week the Challenge was full with Hogaak, so I can't imagine people joining the Challenge this week without being prepared for it.
A truly awful deck with a 40% win rate has a (0.4^5=0.01) 1% chance of winning and being reported. With a lot of people playing random decks, some of the bad stuff will leak through.
I'm fairly confident that tomorrow's (Friday's) results will come out on schedule and be for Competitive Leagues only.
It is not that WotC combines the results of the Competitive with the Friendly. Competitive and Friendly Leagues simply don't exist anymore and are replaced by a single League.
Our first MTGO Modern Challenge with Modern Horizons cards is in the books, and it's got a truly scary 10 Bridgevine decks with Altar of Dementia and Hogaak, Arisen Necropolis in its Top 32 (including 3 copies in the Top 8 and a notable 2nd place). How much will this deck affect the meta? Will it push out Dredge? Will it drive everyone and their dog to run UR Phoenix.meta levels of maindeck graveyard hate? What decks will prey on it? Maybe Neoform Grishoalbrand, for example, with its faster clock and ability to dodge Turn 1 targeted discard by comboing on Turn 1?
Looks like in Modern Horizons they were very careful with the Storm cards, Dredge cards and Force cards, but they underestimated the Delve cards. A recurring proactive 0 card is quite something.
Could someone tell me what are the narset probabilities of failing to draw anything? The minimum number of noncreatures nonlands spells in your deck for Narset to not fail most of the time.
With 35 non-land, non-creature, the chance of drawing something else is 25/60 or 42%. Chance of failing to draw a non-land non-creature four times in a row is roughly 0.42^4 = 0.03 or 3%. With 30 non-land, non-creature it with roughly be 0.5^4 = 0.0625 or 6%. You will fail most of the time (>50%) when you have 0.5^0.25 = 0.84 or 84% of your spells is creature or land. This is when you have 10 or less nonland noncreature cards in your 60 card deck.
Basically compared to CalebD, it is -4 CoCo, +2 Lead the Stampede, +1 Firedrinker Satyr, +1 Metallic Mimic. I suppose this change makes it a bit easier on the mana, as not always you reach 4 lands quickly.
I don't know what to think. I'm considering selling out of the format out of the concern that they will spike the power level and indirectly render our existing decks obsolete. Also, the potential hit on value is a concern.
The reason why I play this format is because it changes only very slowly. If it becomes a second Standard then I just don't want to compete (money wise) in the long run.
As a teaser they obviously spoiled two relatively high powered cards and these cards don't seem to break anything. Although the power will be relatively high, I doubt it will lead to extreme power creep.
Nothing rotates out, so it is not really comparable to Standard. However, if there is a chase mythic in the set you need 4x for your deck, then it can become expensive.
Yeah, Therapist doesn't do anything the turn you cast it. Then next turn you could sac it to itself making it a delayed random guess discard spell (unless you used Peek in your upkeep or something). In turn 3 you could actually sac another creature and may get some mileage out of the card as by then you may have an active Bridge From Below or something. Still, it is precombat, so you are delaying yourself by saccing a potential attacker.
Turn 1: nothing
Turn 2: poor discard
Turn 3: actual use
Turn 4: do you still want discard spells at this stage?
I was intrigued by the Cabal Therap-part, but probably this card ends up being a trap.
AFAIK MTGSalvation was recently sold. All EU users had to agree to transfer their data or have their account deleted. I never got the popup and the mails went to my spam folder, so I never got the message and my account was deleted. I had in this thread 200+ posts, so there are some gaps now.
I mean this is wizards we are talking about, they change their mind every three months at the flick of a hat. Whatever they decide to do modern wise for arena will probably be something completely different 6 months later
WotC often does a 180, but for Modern on Arena they didn't change their stance from the beginning. They again said it isn't coming.
Seems like the first competitive result in years .
By the way, all but a handful of my posts have been erased due to EU rules. So, if there appear to be holes in this thread, this could be because to this.
Neoform has 1 appearance in the last two MTGO Challenge top 32s, so it is not comparable with Hogaak. It is not safe to assume that WotC is OK with a lot of graveyard.
It is not that WotC combines the results of the Competitive with the Friendly. Competitive and Friendly Leagues simply don't exist anymore and are replaced by a single League.
3 Spikeshot Elder
2 Bosk Banneret
4 Burning-Tree Emissary
4 Elvish Visionary
3 Firedrinker Satyr
4 Flamekin Harbinger
3 Judith, the Scourge Diva
2 Metallic Mimic
3 Rix Maadi Reveler
4 Rage Forger
SPELLS (6)
2 Lead the Stampede
4 Lightning Bolt
4 Cavern of Souls
4 Copperline Gorge
1 Blood Crypt
1 Forest
1 Fire-Lit Thicket
2 Mountain
1 Overgrown Tomb
2 Stomping Ground
2 Verdant Catacombs
4 Wooded Foothills
1 Bonfire of the Damned
1 Eternal Witness
3 Fulminator Mage
2 Plaguecrafter
3 Reclamation Sage
2 Surgical Extraction
3 Tormod's Crypt
Basically compared to CalebD, it is -4 CoCo, +2 Lead the Stampede, +1 Firedrinker Satyr, +1 Metallic Mimic. I suppose this change makes it a bit easier on the mana, as not always you reach 4 lands quickly.
Nothing rotates out, so it is not really comparable to Standard. However, if there is a chase mythic in the set you need 4x for your deck, then it can become expensive.
Turn 1: nothing
Turn 2: poor discard
Turn 3: actual use
Turn 4: do you still want discard spells at this stage?
I was intrigued by the Cabal Therap-part, but probably this card ends up being a trap.
Meanwhile, MTGGoldfish featured a budget Rakdos Shaman deck.
4 Flamekin Harbinger
2 Glarewielder
4 Judith, the Scourge Diva
4 Metallic Mimic
4 Rage Forger
4 Rix Maadi Reveler
4 Spikeshot Elder
4 Skewer the Critics
11 Mountain
4 Foreboding Ruins
4 Smoldering Marsh
1 Swamp
2 Dragonskull Summit
3 Duress
1 Minister of Pain
3 Molten Rain
2 Plaguecrafter
2 Shatterstorm
1 Shriekmaw
3 Tormod's Crypt
AFAIK MTGSalvation was recently sold. All EU users had to agree to transfer their data or have their account deleted. I never got the popup and the mails went to my spam folder, so I never got the message and my account was deleted. I had in this thread 200+ posts, so there are some gaps now.
2 Bosk Banneret
4 Burning-Tree Emissary
4 Elvish Visionary
2 Firedrinker Satyr
4 Flamekin Harbinger
3 Judith, the Scourge Diva
1 Metallic Mimic
4 Rage Forger
3 Rix Maadi Reveler
3 Spikeshot Elder
SPELLS
4 Collected Company
4 Lightning Bolt
1 Blood Crypt
4 Cavern of Souls
4 Copperline Gorge
1 Fire-Lit Thicket
1 Forest
2 Mountain
1 Overgrown Tomb
2 Stomping Ground
2 Verdant Catacombs
4 Wooded Foothills
1 Bonfire of the Damned
1 Eternal Witness
3 Fulminator Mage
2 Plaguecrafter
3 Reclamation Sage
2 Surgical Extraction
3 Tormod's Crypt
Seems like the first competitive result in years
By the way, all but a handful of my posts have been erased due to EU rules. So, if there appear to be holes in this thread, this could be because to this.
EDIT: Actual footage: https://www.twitch.tv/videos/375330858?t=05h14m23s
I am not very active anymore in Modern, so if someone wants to adopt these threads, it is also fine by me.