still, 30% was a guesstimate, but I'm pretty certain that mono u and esper control will be the premier decks of the tournament.
This is what I would expect and would tool against. Honestly U tempo is beast it just has good game against everything and nut draws are very common which really makes it hard to deal with even if your prepared.
Pyrored and WW both seem like good 'under the radar' choices that can deal with U though.
Meanwhile Rg devotion could be a surprise contender if one is expecting esper and U tempo to be out in force. So many good SB options while maintaining the red devotion shell.
I doubt black devo will make much of a splash but I would expect plenty of mortars so Gr monsters of the x/5 variety could also be a rogue factor.
I kind of really like something like this. It's very similar to the deck I went 3-0, and 4-0 with this week. I like having ways to get out the threats if they kill your dorks, since that's what people seemed to do around where I live. I definitely like monsters variant more than devotion, but I found kind of a medium ground. I'll post my list below, if you had some feedback. I really want to put the ghor-clans back in, and I'm considering it since I've been mostly using the boon satyr's as combat tricks anyway.
Sideboard stuff - plummet vs arbor colossus if I'm not too worried about devotion? Also I see a lot of people having trouble with Esper, I have thought about putting a Chandra in the side for that matchup, they don't have a lot of creatures, but the ones they do (blood baron really I guess since they would exile aetherling) being pinged from Chandra and unable to block seems pretty good. As well as more ways to get card advantage. What do you think?
I like the direction of these latest lists much more than the 12 mana dudes version. Is there a reason bow of nylea doesnt make the cut in gruul? Its like a mini plainswalker especially with nylea and polukranos not to mention if you get the god and bow down together.
Honestly if any card choices in tempo blue are to be questioned it shouldnt be the 1 drops.. it should be mutavault vs nykthos. I absolutely hate it when specter snatches a nykthos from me because blue can just explode and its particularly good for landing bident/jace without tempo loss.
Judges familiar sets thoughtseize and any other non verdict removal back an entire turn in addition to little things like growing cloudfin and tapping desecration demon that vaporkin can do too. I use it in my herioc deck where its much more important but it can be very annoying here as well. I think bottom line is if your in topdeck mode either one is bad but familiar is the better early play with the same devotion.
The difference you will feel is huge. Hands that start cloudfin curving into anything are simply amazing and hands that go t1 cloudfin, t2 cloudfin + familiar into t3 tidebinder/frostburn/specter and so on up are nearly unwinnable for red.
The interaction of initiative/reckoner + anger is something ive considered building around too (well not initiative, nice call).
Have you considered the black splash to access high priest of penance? Ive heard 2 mana vindicates are good, especially when you can reccur them, say with boros charm or ethereal armor..
Man 4 soldier 4 priest 4 reckoner 4 anger would seriously hose aggro. Add thoughtseize/duress to taste.
I've been trying to figure that out as well. I play legacy but I'm also a huge fan of greek mythology and I want to play theros/rtr block constructed, casually, if that makes sense but costs are prohibitive! Ugh.. I would like to build a couple devotion decks but I found I needed to actually sell some legacy staples to afford standard staples! I guess that's just the cost of entertainment. Wishing I had anticipated some of these cards increasing prices.
Here's a sketch of my PunFit which I would play when I'd feel like playing NicFit. I'm still fairly new with this archetype and don't have much time for countless testings, so if you see something that could be changed to improve the deck - don't hold back the criticism.
Creatures (14):
4x Veteran Explorer
2x Scavenging Ooze
2x Eternal Witness
3x Huntmaster of the Fells
1x Thragtusk
1x Broodmate Dragon
1x Primeval Titan
Spells (23):
2x Sensei's Divining Top
4x Cabal Therapy
4x Green Sun's Zenith
3x Punishing Fire
3x Abrupt Decay
1x Maelstrom Pulse
3x Pernicious Deed
2x Liliana of the Veil
1x Garruk, Primal Hunter
I'm very tight on space. I'd love to squeeze in DRS, more lands, maybe a 2nd Garruk, but can't find anything that could be cut
Also, maybe I could drop the number of Groves to 3 since they can be fetched up with Titan and add another utility land like Phyrexian Tower, etc.?
This archtype is pretty wide open as far as optimal builds go but certain things are pretty set in stone. Heres my 2 cents:
-3 sensei's tops is bare minimum, you should see 1 per game this way and you always want to see one.
-Liliana is insane with PF and a 3cc edict without so id run 4 PFs since you always want to see both and they both have great synergy with explorer.
-as above 4 groves is pretty essential, even if titan can find one. You wont always be reaching 6-7 mana for titan that easily so dont count on his tutor ability to find grove not to mention wasteland.
-this may cause some controversy but 3 huntmasters is IMO too many. In fact 1 might be too many but as a GSZ target should probably still be in the 60. He can randomly take over games but often hes 2 x 2/2s for 4cc which in legacy is not impressive. Thrun will always be better than the 3rd HM, often better than the 2nd.
-Your land distribution should be as red hot pancakes says then -1 mountain -1 arbor +1 phyrexian tower (I say 2) +1 swamp, his other suggestions are also very solid. Pulse is not needed main, hell this deck can routinely deed for 10.. (ok not standard but ive seen it).
For other considerations:
2 innocent blood are damn unfair in this deck. If you see any combo I would also consider adding 2 thoughtseize to the main.
Wolf run is janky anywhere else but here its straight murder. Getting smacked with a 7/1 trample explorer hurts.
Karakas should probably be a 1-of in this deck regardless of if you play white.. consider it as a colorless land with the same ability and its probably better than stronghold in several matchups, especially if you run crop rotations in the 75.
A manland is often very useful for closing games or the odd time when you cant find a removal for jace. Pulses and the 3rd abrupt decay could stand to be in the board IMO. Lastly alternate ramp sources are arguable but IMO more SB status than main.
Of those you listed I say Canadian thresh (RUG delver). It has game against everything great side board options and has consistently proven itself as tier 1 more than any other deck, fair or non. It's also very technical and rewarding to play but punishes weak misplays similar to combo. Another option to look into is bURG which is basically thresh splashing black for deathrite, decays and an insane side board.
Another fair deck to consider is UWr blade. It's a pretty standard control shell with insane amounts of spot removal in 4 StP 4 bolts + SCM and can also include s combo element in helm/RiP not to mention main deck grave hate and blood moon. Once again a choice that like CT requires solid knowledge of the format.
True about the exiling since lethal damage is checked as state based, plus it does support NO. The only problem and is exiling goyf food so I would have to avoid casting it until I have an instant and preferably also a sorcery in the yard. Hmmm not that hard though so maybe ill test it before writing it off.
I did test 1 mongoose main and it was often really nasty coming in off GSZ for 1. Sometimes goyfs are straight better getting huge off exalted but Ive had goose swinging for 5 before and causing jace problems not to mention laughing at removal. Goyfs hate decays but im ok with them decaying a hierarch since they cant him goose.
Probably not really worth it overall since drawing him in the opener sucks though, same would be true of dryad militant.
They can respond to the activated ability of the fetch, if not it resolves and active player gets priority casting NO which sacking the arbor is a cost of. Interacting on the stack to remove the creature isn't ever really an issue, it's having one available with 4 mana with NO in hand. I'm actually thinking of testing 1 mongoose since its not easy to remove, GSZ finds it for 2 and occasionally it might be good as a beater.
Thanks for the suggestions guys. I think my best options main are ooze and DRS main, maybe wasteland. Side is surgicals. I'm currently on all those but I'll test the two rogue suggestions and maybe even try to squeeze a couple wastes since I can always sandbag em with cantrips if not necessary.
It's true you can't respond to tapping grove but you can respond to the PF trigger.
This is what I would expect and would tool against. Honestly U tempo is beast it just has good game against everything and nut draws are very common which really makes it hard to deal with even if your prepared.
Pyrored and WW both seem like good 'under the radar' choices that can deal with U though.
Meanwhile Rg devotion could be a surprise contender if one is expecting esper and U tempo to be out in force. So many good SB options while maintaining the red devotion shell.
I doubt black devo will make much of a splash but I would expect plenty of mortars so Gr monsters of the x/5 variety could also be a rogue factor.
Thats what I got..
I like the direction of these latest lists much more than the 12 mana dudes version. Is there a reason bow of nylea doesnt make the cut in gruul? Its like a mini plainswalker especially with nylea and polukranos not to mention if you get the god and bow down together.
4 Vaporkin
4 Dissolve
4 Claustrophobia
For these:
4 cloudfin raptor
4 judges familiar
2 omenspeaker/bident
2 jace
The difference you will feel is huge. Hands that start cloudfin curving into anything are simply amazing and hands that go t1 cloudfin, t2 cloudfin + familiar into t3 tidebinder/frostburn/specter and so on up are nearly unwinnable for red.
Chandra is a very good idea here. Also fury and/or flames of the firebrand get ridiculous with multiple priests onboard.
Have you considered the black splash to access high priest of penance? Ive heard 2 mana vindicates are good, especially when you can reccur them, say with boros charm or ethereal armor..
Man 4 soldier 4 priest 4 reckoner 4 anger would seriously hose aggro. Add thoughtseize/duress to taste.
This archtype is pretty wide open as far as optimal builds go but certain things are pretty set in stone. Heres my 2 cents:
-3 sensei's tops is bare minimum, you should see 1 per game this way and you always want to see one.
-Liliana is insane with PF and a 3cc edict without so id run 4 PFs since you always want to see both and they both have great synergy with explorer.
-as above 4 groves is pretty essential, even if titan can find one. You wont always be reaching 6-7 mana for titan that easily so dont count on his tutor ability to find grove not to mention wasteland.
-this may cause some controversy but 3 huntmasters is IMO too many. In fact 1 might be too many but as a GSZ target should probably still be in the 60. He can randomly take over games but often hes 2 x 2/2s for 4cc which in legacy is not impressive. Thrun will always be better than the 3rd HM, often better than the 2nd.
-Your land distribution should be as red hot pancakes says then -1 mountain -1 arbor +1 phyrexian tower (I say 2) +1 swamp, his other suggestions are also very solid. Pulse is not needed main, hell this deck can routinely deed for 10.. (ok not standard but ive seen it).
For other considerations:
2 innocent blood are damn unfair in this deck. If you see any combo I would also consider adding 2 thoughtseize to the main.
Wolf run is janky anywhere else but here its straight murder. Getting smacked with a 7/1 trample explorer hurts.
Karakas should probably be a 1-of in this deck regardless of if you play white.. consider it as a colorless land with the same ability and its probably better than stronghold in several matchups, especially if you run crop rotations in the 75.
A manland is often very useful for closing games or the odd time when you cant find a removal for jace. Pulses and the 3rd abrupt decay could stand to be in the board IMO. Lastly alternate ramp sources are arguable but IMO more SB status than main.
Thats what I got.
Another fair deck to consider is UWr blade. It's a pretty standard control shell with insane amounts of spot removal in 4 StP 4 bolts + SCM and can also include s combo element in helm/RiP not to mention main deck grave hate and blood moon. Once again a choice that like CT requires solid knowledge of the format.
Anyway those are my votes.
I did test 1 mongoose main and it was often really nasty coming in off GSZ for 1. Sometimes goyfs are straight better getting huge off exalted but Ive had goose swinging for 5 before and causing jace problems not to mention laughing at removal. Goyfs hate decays but im ok with them decaying a hierarch since they cant him goose.
Probably not really worth it overall since drawing him in the opener sucks though, same would be true of dryad militant.
It's true you can't respond to tapping grove but you can respond to the PF trigger.