I wrote a simulation comparing the 2. I ran it both ways 100,000 times.
Assumptions:
You have a 2 card combo.
You have a 60 card deck.
You are running 4 of each combo card.
With current mulligan rules, you are willing to mull to 2 to get it.
With the current rules, there's a 24% chance of starting your hand with the combo. With the "new" method, it increases to 29%.
I figured that wasn't a realistic example, really...so I adjusted the simulator. This time, I counted how many turns, on average, it would take to assemble your combo. Again, 100,000 times.
Assumptions:
Same deck configuration as before.
With current mulligan rules, you are willing to mull to 5 to get it.
With current rules, it takes 14-15 turns. With the "new" method, it takes 9-10.
Interestingly, the number of cards you are willing to mull down to doesn't make much of a difference under current rules. Any reasonable number keeps you at 14-15 turns. If you're willing to go down to 1, it increases to 15-16, and 16-17 at mull to 0.
I ran a simulation of this. Here are my assumptions:
1) You attack, starting turn 4 (casting blade on 3, equipping on 4.)
2) You attack each turn until the opponent is decked.
3) Your creature is blocked each time, so the opponent never dies from combat damage.
4) Your opponent is running 40 cards.
I ran the simulation 100,000 times for each landcount. Here are my results (For X Lands:, the blade averages Y extra damage per attack.):
X Y
12 3.095
13 2.879
14 2.691
15 2.526
16 2.380
17 2.250
18 2.136
Using the same method, but changing the deck size to 60 cards and landcount to 22, I got an average of 2.638 extra damage per attack.
Note that my numbers differ from the original post because mine are an average through the course of a game (well, 100,000 games to be exact) whereas the original post is a snapshot of a 40 card deck, single attack, with X lands.
Unfortunately, the postal worker felt it was perfectly acceptable to bend the entire envelope (with its rigid cardboard) in half to put it in my mailbox. So, there is a crease across the card about 1/3 of the way from the top. :\
Because Thought Lash has a trigger that cares about IF the upkeep was paid. It doesn't care who didn't pay the upkeep, and it's not a part of the upkeep trigger itself. It's a separate trigger.
701.3a. To attach an Aura, Equipment, or Fortification to an object means to take it from where it currently is and put it onto that object. If something is attached to a permanent on the battlefield, it's customary to place it so that it's physically touching the permanent. An Aura, Equipment, or Fortification can't be attached to an object it couldn't enchant, equip, or fortify, respectively.
701.3b. If an effect tries to attach an Aura, Equipment, or Fortification to an object it can't be attached to, the Aura, Equipment, or Fortification doesn't move. If an effect tries to attach an Aura, Equipment, or Fortification to the object it's already attached to, the effect does nothing.
Players play with their hands revealed.
At the beginning of each player’s upkeep, put an Idle counter on each card in that player’s hand.
At the beginning of each player’s end step, Devil’s Play deals X damage to that player where X is the total number of Idle counters on cards in that player’s hand.
Encourages emptying of hands, or at least cycling.
1) Thought Lash’s cumulative upkeep
2) Zedruu’s draw/life gain
Optimally, you put Thought Lash’s trigger on the stack first, followed by Zedruu’s. Then, respond to Zedruu’s by “donating” the Thought Lash to an opponent. Assuming no other responses, the following happens:
1) Opponent gains control of Thought Lash
2) Zedruu’s ability resolves, and you gain life/cards for perms you own that others control (including your newly donated Thought Lash)
3) Though Lash’s cumulative upkeep resolves. You put an age counter and choose not to pay. You try to sacrifice it, but can’t, because you don’t control it.
4) Thought Lash’s other trigger triggers since you didn’t pay. Assuming no responses, the opponent exiles their library.
5) Whenever that opponent would draw a card, they lose, and control of Thought Lash returns to you.
Why would you ever have to pay the echo? On turn 3, echo would see a creature that hasn't entered the battlefield since the beginning of your last upkeep and not demand a cost, right?
Granted, this has probably changed since that FAQ... was written.
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Neither. It was a simulation. It was easier to write a simulation than to do the calculations.
And it was turns, assuming you are on the draw.
Assumptions:
You have a 2 card combo.
You have a 60 card deck.
You are running 4 of each combo card.
With current mulligan rules, you are willing to mull to 2 to get it.
With the current rules, there's a 24% chance of starting your hand with the combo. With the "new" method, it increases to 29%.
I figured that wasn't a realistic example, really...so I adjusted the simulator. This time, I counted how many turns, on average, it would take to assemble your combo. Again, 100,000 times.
Assumptions:
Same deck configuration as before.
With current mulligan rules, you are willing to mull to 5 to get it.
With current rules, it takes 14-15 turns. With the "new" method, it takes 9-10.
Interestingly, the number of cards you are willing to mull down to doesn't make much of a difference under current rules. Any reasonable number keeps you at 14-15 turns. If you're willing to go down to 1, it increases to 15-16, and 16-17 at mull to 0.
So...take what you will from that.
1) You attack, starting turn 4 (casting blade on 3, equipping on 4.)
2) You attack each turn until the opponent is decked.
3) Your creature is blocked each time, so the opponent never dies from combat damage.
4) Your opponent is running 40 cards.
I ran the simulation 100,000 times for each landcount. Here are my results (For X Lands:, the blade averages Y extra damage per attack.):
Using the same method, but changing the deck size to 60 cards and landcount to 22, I got an average of 2.638 extra damage per attack.
Note that my numbers differ from the original post because mine are an average through the course of a game (well, 100,000 games to be exact) whereas the original post is a snapshot of a 40 card deck, single attack, with X lands.
Unfortunately, the postal worker felt it was perfectly acceptable to bend the entire envelope (with its rigid cardboard) in half to put it in my mailbox. So, there is a crease across the card about 1/3 of the way from the top. :\
701.3a. To attach an Aura, Equipment, or Fortification to an object means to take it from where it currently is and put it onto that object. If something is attached to a permanent on the battlefield, it's customary to place it so that it's physically touching the permanent. An Aura, Equipment, or Fortification can't be attached to an object it couldn't enchant, equip, or fortify, respectively.
701.3b. If an effect tries to attach an Aura, Equipment, or Fortification to an object it can't be attached to, the Aura, Equipment, or Fortification doesn't move. If an effect tries to attach an Aura, Equipment, or Fortification to the object it's already attached to, the effect does nothing.
Players play with their hands revealed.
At the beginning of each player’s upkeep, put an Idle counter on each card in that player’s hand.
At the beginning of each player’s end step, Devil’s Play deals X damage to that player where X is the total number of Idle counters on cards in that player’s hand.
Encourages emptying of hands, or at least cycling.
Yep. Realized that pretty much right after I clicked submit and deleted my post. Bad timing. Lol.
1) Thought Lash’s cumulative upkeep
2) Zedruu’s draw/life gain
Optimally, you put Thought Lash’s trigger on the stack first, followed by Zedruu’s. Then, respond to Zedruu’s by “donating” the Thought Lash to an opponent. Assuming no other responses, the following happens:
1) Opponent gains control of Thought Lash
2) Zedruu’s ability resolves, and you gain life/cards for perms you own that others control (including your newly donated Thought Lash)
3) Though Lash’s cumulative upkeep resolves. You put an age counter and choose not to pay. You try to sacrifice it, but can’t, because you don’t control it.
4) Thought Lash’s other trigger triggers since you didn’t pay. Assuming no responses, the opponent exiles their library.
5) Whenever that opponent would draw a card, they lose, and control of Thought Lash returns to you.
I just did the same thing, and it's only previously-printed cards.
Mirror Mastery: $62.63
Devour for Power: $86.33
Heavenly Inferno: $69.38
Political Puppets: $66.71
These are based on the cheapest NM/M price on SCG for each single. Subtract about $7 each to ignore basic lands.
Granted, this has probably changed since that FAQ... was written.