I don't see how Scheming isn't playable since it's basically "Scry 5" for 2, except instead of it going to the bottom, it's "your worst cards among those 5 fuel Delve." That seems like an okay thing to me. It depends on if you'll be delving, of course, but taking 1-5 off the mana cost of any delver for 1U seems like a steal. It certainly would've been in Innistrad.
I could definitely be wrong on this one, but it seems hardly better than Index. I guess late game it's a lot better since you just get rid of the early-game cards/lands instead of drawing them 3 turns later. Not getting a card or affecting the board seems so bad. OTOH, I guess Innistrad decks played that flashback mill spell so it depends on how valuable the self-mill turns out to be.
Sage-Eye Harrier - D
This feels like a reach card masquerading as a flyer. Sure it can trigger raid or get out of control with some granted +1/+1 counters but it's rarely going to do anything but die as a morph or stall as an overly expensive blocker.
It is a warrior, so if you've picked up a couple Chiefs of the Edge you can feel better/less bad about playing it. I'm tempted to say that if warrior tribal is a thing, getting these guys on the wheel will be a big part of it.
Tormenting Voice - B
This seems like card parity but it's really more of a 2 mana divination. It's cheap enough that it can help fix your colors early on top of tossing excess lands for gas late. Very solid common.
Also enables Delve, and while you're not in the delve tribe it's pretty likely you'll pick up a delve card or two.
Is there that many low-cost enablers that sultai can cast hooting mandrill earlier than temur? Consider that a delve deck might not be so keen to use-up its graveyard to power-out a vanilla 4/4...
The complete list of cards that put more than one card in your yard, CMC <=3:
Out of the commons, I don't think Scheming is playable; Secret might be if the format is very slow, but it's probably not best played on turn 3. Voice is actually probably the best of these to play on-curve (aside from the rare) since it means forgoing a bear rather than a morph. So actually Temur is better placed for a turn 4 monkey than sultai.
(Turn 3 monkey needs either scheming or a fetchland plus voice or Despise plus voice in your Jund shard deck.)
1 - Treasure Cruise - will be played in multiple tier decks
2 - Hooting Mandrills - will probably be played in a tier 1/2 deck (stompy).
3 - Mardu Skullhunter
4 - Sultai Scavenger - both decent in suicide black, Skullhunter can be a 4-of, though. I don't think they're enough to push Sui black to competitive. Scavenger interacts nicely with Ghoulraiser in zombie decks (turns random return into your-choice).
5 - Shambling Attendants - without the other delve cards would be higher, but U/B control wants to use its graveyard cards to go on a cruise, and MBC uses its graveyard a lot more.
6 - Feed the Clan - anti burn sideboard in affinity.
-------- line of playability --------
7 - Disowned Ancestor
8 - Archers' Parapet
For the cheap 5 toughness blocking.
9 - Ponyback Brigade because ponies.
10 - Whirlwind Adept will either be totally unplayable or will be the center of a gross combo/control deck that figures out how to abuse it.
Invocation. There are a lot of guys with big butts in the format and several of them are likely to go late. You should be able to get a 5/5 out of this guy pretty early.
One thing I was looking for here was whether there were any interesting morphs to use Cloudshift and friends; mainly looking for beaters with toughness >4 (something that didn't exist at common before). Snowhorn Rider (5/5 trample, RUG3 casting cost, RUG2 morph) is one possibility there; Woolly Loxodon (6/7 vanilla, GG5 casting cost G5 morph) is the other. I don't see either of them making morph/cloudshift a deck. The other guy who seems fun to cloudshift is the RWB one, Ponyback Brigade, who's a 2/2 that carries 3 1/1 goblins around with him. Fun but probably not practical.
I kind of want to bring my janky +1/+1 counters deck back and put Longshot Squad and Ainok Bond-Kin in it, but realistically that's not going to happen.
A couple low-drop blockers who are 5 toughness or can be 5 toughness: Disowned Ancestor (cc: B, 0/4 Outlast 1B) and Archers' Parapet (CC: 1G, 0/5 wall, 1B, tap, opponent loses 1 life).
Could Feed the Clan work as an anti-Burn sideboard card for Affinity? Not sure how consistently it can be turned on.
Finally, just noting that Tormenting Voice is strictly better than Wild Guess in non-mono-red decks; OTOH, I think Guess was only (sometimes) played in mono-red decks so there's that.
My guess would be that aggro is most likely to be good/overpowered, and Mardu is the most aggro of the clans. But I could be wrong.
Changed my vote to Abzan with more info; looks like there's enough stall (including the lifegaining lands and a bunch of guys with big butts) that the red-based aggro plan seems risky.
Could it be that Treasure Cruise would be most at home in the perenially-maligned Erasure Turbofog lists?
EDIT: Oh yeah, and Hooting Mandrills seems pretty boss, with the one major problem that it's only a 4/4 in an environment with well-established answers to 4/4s...
Definitely could see it in Turbofog; the lifegain lands also help the fog deck quite a bit. Really, I think it will see play in pretty much any blue deck that plans to play past turn 5-6 (so not cyclopsfiend and maybe only sideboard in delver).
Weirdly, it's a common that's better in other constructed formats than Pauper, where there's just too much action that happens in the 1-3 CMC slots. It does hit Gary and various affinity golems, but that's about it.
Cruise isn't yet confirmed - if real, it's very good. I'd run it over the delve creatures in a blue deck; looks to me like all of the delve cards should be playable in competitive decks. Wonder if anyone's going to go crazy and play more than 2 of them in something.
Couple other cards - Disdainful Stroke,a 1U counterspell that counters a card with CMC 4 or more - seems too narrow to do work in Pauper, where so much action happens at CMC 3 and lower. Most of the bombs you would want to stop with this card also get stopped by Remove Soul or Exclude.
Savage Punch, 1G sorcery-speed fight - if you control a creature with power 4 or more, your creature also gets +2/+2 till EOT. Doesn't seems as good as the other fight options available. I guess Affinity might have enough 4/4s to like it, but Affinity has many better removal options and doesn't use most of them. (OTOH, it does show a guy punching out a bear. Could only be better if he were the Punisher.)
Sidisi's Pet 3B
Creature-Zombie Ape (C)
Lifelink
Morph 1B
The Sultai distinguish between pet and slave by the material of the chain.
1/4
Looks unplayable. If only it were 1/5.
Hooting Mandrills 5G
Creature-Ape (C)
Delve
Trample
Interlopers in Sultai territory usually end up as crocodile chow or baboon bait.
4/4
OTOH, this looks eminently playable, and not only in graveyard decks. Play it as a one-of in Stompy and delve it out off of early trades and pump spells; probably can't go more than 2-of in any deck since decks that fill the yard usually have other plans for the stuff they put there.
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I could definitely be wrong on this one, but it seems hardly better than Index. I guess late game it's a lot better since you just get rid of the early-game cards/lands instead of drawing them 3 turns later. Not getting a card or affecting the board seems so bad. OTOH, I guess Innistrad decks played that flashback mill spell so it depends on how valuable the self-mill turns out to be.
It is a warrior, so if you've picked up a couple Chiefs of the Edge you can feel better/less bad about playing it. I'm tempted to say that if warrior tribal is a thing, getting these guys on the wheel will be a big part of it.
Also enables Delve, and while you're not in the delve tribe it's pretty likely you'll pick up a delve card or two.
The complete list of cards that put more than one card in your yard, CMC <=3:
BUG:
Sultai Ascendancy (rare) CMC 3
Sultai Charm (uncommon) CMC 3
Green:
Scout the Borders (common) CMC 3
Red:
Tormenting Voice (common) CMC 2
Black:
Rakshasa's Secret (common) CMC 3
Blue:
Taigam's Scheming (common) CMC 2
Out of the commons, I don't think Scheming is playable; Secret might be if the format is very slow, but it's probably not best played on turn 3. Voice is actually probably the best of these to play on-curve (aside from the rare) since it means forgoing a bear rather than a morph. So actually Temur is better placed for a turn 4 monkey than sultai.
(Turn 3 monkey needs either scheming or a fetchland plus voice or Despise plus voice in your Jund shard deck.)
Plus Castle.
1 - Treasure Cruise - will be played in multiple tier decks
2 - Hooting Mandrills - will probably be played in a tier 1/2 deck (stompy).
3 - Mardu Skullhunter
4 - Sultai Scavenger - both decent in suicide black, Skullhunter can be a 4-of, though. I don't think they're enough to push Sui black to competitive. Scavenger interacts nicely with Ghoulraiser in zombie decks (turns random return into your-choice).
5 - Shambling Attendants - without the other delve cards would be higher, but U/B control wants to use its graveyard cards to go on a cruise, and MBC uses its graveyard a lot more.
6 - Feed the Clan - anti burn sideboard in affinity.
-------- line of playability --------
7 - Disowned Ancestor
8 - Archers' Parapet
For the cheap 5 toughness blocking.
9 - Ponyback Brigade because ponies.
10 - Whirlwind Adept will either be totally unplayable or will be the center of a gross combo/control deck that figures out how to abuse it.
I kind of want to bring my janky +1/+1 counters deck back and put Longshot Squad and Ainok Bond-Kin in it, but realistically that's not going to happen.
A couple low-drop blockers who are 5 toughness or can be 5 toughness: Disowned Ancestor (cc: B, 0/4 Outlast 1B) and Archers' Parapet (CC: 1G, 0/5 wall, 1B, tap, opponent loses 1 life).
Could Feed the Clan work as an anti-Burn sideboard card for Affinity? Not sure how consistently it can be turned on.
Finally, just noting that Tormenting Voice is strictly better than Wild Guess in non-mono-red decks; OTOH, I think Guess was only (sometimes) played in mono-red decks so there's that.
Changed my vote to Abzan with more info; looks like there's enough stall (including the lifegaining lands and a bunch of guys with big butts) that the red-based aggro plan seems risky.
Definitely could see it in Turbofog; the lifegain lands also help the fog deck quite a bit. Really, I think it will see play in pretty much any blue deck that plans to play past turn 5-6 (so not cyclopsfiend and maybe only sideboard in delver).
https://i.chzbgr.com/maxW500/3562648320/h8408CCAB/
Couple other cards - Disdainful Stroke,a 1U counterspell that counters a card with CMC 4 or more - seems too narrow to do work in Pauper, where so much action happens at CMC 3 and lower. Most of the bombs you would want to stop with this card also get stopped by Remove Soul or Exclude.
Savage Punch, 1G sorcery-speed fight - if you control a creature with power 4 or more, your creature also gets +2/+2 till EOT. Doesn't seems as good as the other fight options available. I guess Affinity might have enough 4/4s to like it, but Affinity has many better removal options and doesn't use most of them. (OTOH, it does show a guy punching out a bear. Could only be better if he were the Punisher.)
Creature-Zombie Ape (C)
Lifelink
Morph 1B
The Sultai distinguish between pet and slave by the material of the chain.
1/4
Looks unplayable. If only it were 1/5.
Hooting Mandrills 5G
Creature-Ape (C)
Delve
Trample
Interlopers in Sultai territory usually end up as crocodile chow or baboon bait.
4/4
OTOH, this looks eminently playable, and not only in graveyard decks. Play it as a one-of in Stompy and delve it out off of early trades and pump spells; probably can't go more than 2-of in any deck since decks that fill the yard usually have other plans for the stuff they put there.