Another question you could ask would be how much life you are willing to give up to start with 8 cards in hand. Would you be willing to start at 10? 15? 18? It certainly depends on your deck, of course.
First-picking a tri-land isn't only good if you end up in that wedge. You can use it as a dual in two of the others as well. It's a much more open pick than a three-colour bomb.
Right, it's actually comparable to picking a single color card. Both can go in 3 wedges + 2 enemy color decks.
That's not entirely accurate, I think. Who has the highest chance to hit their second land drop first? Clearly the player on the play. Who has the higher chance of hitting their eighth land drop first? That's the player on the draw, because he has one more card. For the fifth land drop, I can't tell straight away who has the best chance of hitting it first. I'd guess the player on the play, but by a very thin margin. The fact that it seems pretty equal means it's not a deciding factor for the play/draw decision.
I did a simulation, assuming 17 lands and mulligan if you have 1 or 6 lands. Here is the average turn on which you hit land drop X:
So obviously you hit them slightly earlier on the draw. But since you get to go first on the play, you can see that being on the draw never puts you a full turn ahead (at least up to 10 lands). So you are not correct that being on the draw helps you hit your 8th land drop earlier.
What turn are you casting this? Turn 4 seems good, as you avoid the turn to play morphs (3) and the turn to unmorph the good morphs (5). But then you can't both use it and unmorph on turn 5, so maybe you wait till turn 6 to use it. If we assume a slow format that lasts ~9 turns on average, then that could work well: you get to use it on turns 6-9. That still sounds pretty bad though.
It's better as a topdeck. Later in the game it basically locks down their creature forever. Too bad it only does it on offense or defense.
I assume it's good in a fliers deck where you want to disable their reach creature or only flier so your team can get in. The awkward thing is that you are wasting a ton of mana to do that, and so they might still be able to race back.
Modern is too sanitized in my personal opinion, but the Ponder/Preordain ban had to do with Storm/Twin and their ability to break the WotC vision of the turn four rule if they were not on the ban list.
I doubt this is good enough for Modern. If your Young Pyromancer lives till turn 4 you've probably won already anyway, you don't need to pump the tokens. And this costs you a card and a full 3 mana (could be 3 spells you cast!). And still dies to Abrupt Decay.
I opened a horrible pool with no removal, but somehow went 8-1 in the sealed portion with a BW deck. The deck featured 19 creatures (2 Seraphs of the Masses, a Indulgent Tormentor, a Soul of Innistrad, and TEN 2- and 1- drops)
While I haven't played much Limited recently, I have a hard time believing that there were decks in (e.g.) JBT or TTT that could beat a Whip that's been active long enough to give its controller 60 life, which seems to be the easiest way to accomplish this.
There were many other Limited formats in the last 10 years.
For Theros block specifically: Heroes' Bane can deal an inordinate amount of damage bestowed with any evasion or trample. I've also had opponents scoop at over 30 life after I EOT activated Hydra Broodmaster. Or after bestowing Chromanticore on Bassara Tower Archer. And don't underestimate Colossus of Akros in UB control for being able to end long drawn out games vs Whip.
Not really on-topic, but I once won a game of M13 draft when my opponent reached 80+ life in just a few swings (multiple Sphinx of Uthuun + Predatory Rampage).
The summary is that for limited you need (90% probability):
C by turn 2: 9 sources
C by turn 5: 7 sources
C by turn 7: 6 sources
(So on a typical "splash" with 3 sources you have to expect that often you won't be able to cast it)
CC by turn 2: 14 sources
CC by turn 5: 11 sources
CCC by turn 3: 16 sources
This really suggests that in limited it's going to be hard to have a consistent 3 color deck. Even 2 color decks are inconsistent without good fixing (like guildgates). In Theros for instance you might have WW, BB, GG two drops, which is pretty awkward since some games you might only be able to cast it on turn 7 or later.
Izzet Staticaster seems much better as a "combo" with Hornet's Nest. Instant speed, less mana, don't have to take damage, also good against Master of Waves/Elspeth.
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Right, it's actually comparable to picking a single color card. Both can go in 3 wedges + 2 enemy color decks.
I did a simulation, assuming 17 lands and mulligan if you have 1 or 6 lands. Here is the average turn on which you hit land drop X:
On the draw:
3 lands => 3.1 turns
4 lands => 4.4 turns
5 lands => 5.8 turns
6 lands => 7.5 turns
7 lands => 9.4 turns
8 lands => 11.4 turns
9 lands => 13.5 turns
10 lands => 15.8 turns
On the play:
3 lands => 3.2 turns
4 lands => 4.6 turns
5 lands => 6.2 turns
6 lands => 8.1 turns
7 lands => 10.1 turns
8 lands => 12.2 turns
9 lands => 14.4 turns
10 lands => 16.7 turns
So obviously you hit them slightly earlier on the draw. But since you get to go first on the play, you can see that being on the draw never puts you a full turn ahead (at least up to 10 lands). So you are not correct that being on the draw helps you hit your 8th land drop earlier.
The online release is actually the Monday after the pre-release.
It's better as a topdeck. Later in the game it basically locks down their creature forever. Too bad it only does it on offense or defense.
I assume it's good in a fliers deck where you want to disable their reach creature or only flier so your team can get in. The awkward thing is that you are wasting a ton of mana to do that, and so they might still be able to race back.
How does twin ever break the turn four rule?
You want to be able to play tron lands the first three turns, but still have colored mana. Signets are great for this.
Wow, that pool sure sounds "horrible".
Not really on-topic, but I once won a game of M13 draft when my opponent reached 80+ life in just a few swings (multiple Sphinx of Uthuun + Predatory Rampage).
The summary is that for limited you need (90% probability):
C by turn 2: 9 sources
C by turn 5: 7 sources
C by turn 7: 6 sources
(So on a typical "splash" with 3 sources you have to expect that often you won't be able to cast it)
CC by turn 2: 14 sources
CC by turn 5: 11 sources
CCC by turn 3: 16 sources
This really suggests that in limited it's going to be hard to have a consistent 3 color deck. Even 2 color decks are inconsistent without good fixing (like guildgates). In Theros for instance you might have WW, BB, GG two drops, which is pretty awkward since some games you might only be able to cast it on turn 7 or later.