It will probably be quite a while before these jump from the 10ish dollars they'll stabilize at due to supply taking quite a while to dry up for these. At least a year after rotation if not 3. Depends on a lot of variables really/it's nigh impossible to calculate the number 1 variable being whether magic continues to grow.
Check the historical data: Misty Rainforest, from around launch (October 2009) to today. It started off high (launch), dropped below $10 by January (Worldwake release), and stayed there until rotation in October 2011 (Innistrad launch). It gained slowly, but didn't really start picking up until October of 2012 (Return to Ravnica), where it had a steady (and rather steep) climb until very recently.
You can expect that the current batch of fetches will probably follow a similar pattern. Prices will fall to their lowest around when the second Khans set hit the shelves (market saturation of the first set), and then they will likely start to rebound around rotation time.
This is pretty much what happened with Zen too. It wasn't till after the initial wave that fetch prices dropped below $10, but it's inevitable. Especially when Zen's first printing had random "priceless treasures" mixed in as well.
If memory serves, there are 121 rares on the rare sheet and 10 of those slots will be fetches (53 rares x2 + 15 mythics). This puts the chance of pulling a fetchland at roughly 1 in every 12.1 packs, so you can expect to get a sliver under 3 fetches per box on average, not counting foils or printing errors. Given the cost of boxes from a distributor (~$75 each), there's no way that fetchlands can maintain prices above $25 each. If they did, the rest of the cards in the set would have to be a net negative value.
Right now, tcgplayer says Wooded Foothills is about $14 average. I want to buy a playset, but I always feel bad about dropping $50 on 4 cards. However, the price will probably just go up, right?
Wait for 2-3 weeks after release before buying. The price will drop unless a tier 1 deck emerges with foothills as a 4-of.
What are we looking at as Sarkhan's value once he's released? I've seen numerous preorders at $19.99, worth picking up now? Not sure what to make of him since a ton of Khans product will be opened, so I don't see a $40 tag ala Nissa, but he's a very powerful card that should be in pretty high demand.
Unless you need them for early competition, your chance of winning that gamble is something like 5% or less. The vast majority of preorder singles end up being losers. Only a handful have been successful - New Nissa, Big Jace, Bonfire, Sphinx's Rev, Thundermaw Hellkite, etc. The list might look kind of big, but you've got to realize that every other rare and mythic besides these handful has fallen post-release. I caution against preorders unless you're really feeling lucky.
It will take at most two months for the prices to settle. By the time the next spoiler season is around the corner, they'll settle out and people will move on to being excited about the next big thing.
So Keranos, god of storms is making waves in SB in Modern and MB in Legacy... the real spike has yet to happen. If you need copies for personal use now is the time. This will soon be a + $ 20,00 card.
One problem with the math of boxes is that Khans boxes are up to $110 or so.
Doesn't matter. The presses will continue to print more until the prices return. This happened with ZEN as well. They will print until the demand is satisfied. The only time that you'll see box prices permanently jump is after they've stopped printing completely, which is what caused the huge WWK/Jace/Stoneforge spike. For those who don't remember, WWK was actually kind of underopened and unpopular at the beginning (pretty normal for a middle set), and then suddenly picked up near the end. Unfortunately, it picked up right after Wizards had started printing ROE and WWK had been retired, which resulted in a huge price jump on WWK that's been there ever since.
I would be truly shocked if any foil fetch sells below $50. I suspect this set will be opened as much as, if not more, than RtR.
That is precisely why they would sell for below $50. Not even Deathrite Shaman foils reached $50 before they were banned in Modern, and they were practically ubiquitous in Modern (and still are in Legacy).
Yes you are correct. I did kind of contradict myself there. However I will stand by them being +$50 in long term. Regardless definitely get them when you can.
Most definitely, but that's at least a year or two after rotation. The target price for fetch foils while in standard is probably $20-30, but they will jump up each time Modern season comes around without a reprint.
I would be truly shocked if any foil fetch sells below $50. I suspect this set will be opened as much as, if not more, than RtR.
That is precisely why they would sell for below $50. Not even Deathrite Shaman foils reached $50 before they were banned in Modern, and they were practically ubiquitous in Modern (and still are in Legacy).
Weird. I remember seeing the huge price disparity between foil and non on Keranos, but I didn't expect the price correction to push upward. He still sees no play yet. I guess people are just banking super hard on Jeskai.
I wonder if we will see the same printing as RtR (shocks) for Fetches. 1st set Onslaught Fetches, 2nd set Zen Fetches, 3rd Set all 10 fetches but in lower numbers. To me, this kind of pattern makes sense and is a GREAT way to mass produce fetches (like they did shocks) and wash their hands of the "fetch problem" once and for all.
It would more likely be 5/10/5, since the block is supposed to go large small large.
The obvious:
- Onslaught fetches drop in price
- New fetches start off high (at preorder time, just like 2009), then drop off as people realize "they'll keep printing this set for around a year, and it will be drafted for almost as long."
- If they aren't reprinted, ZEN fetches will be pulled down because of allied fetch alternatives now available. If they are, they will follow the same trajectory as the allied fetches.
The secondary effect:
- Cards that play well with fetches will go up.
- Due to the increased fetch supply, you'll begin to see a rise in other format staples to compensate for the lack of money in the fetches. I expect that ABU duals, Goyf, Clique, Wasteland, Force, etc. will all see an overall rise to compensate.
The interesting thing is that the amount of money that people are putting into Legacy and Modern isn't going to decrease because of this. Those who were invested in Modern and Legacy before will continue to be doing so. But since it will be cheaper to buy in on the fetches, the money that they would have spent there won't simply vanish - it will simply flow into other format staples instead. I don't think Modern and Legacy will get any cheaper; the market will correct itself.
Check the historical data: Misty Rainforest, from around launch (October 2009) to today. It started off high (launch), dropped below $10 by January (Worldwake release), and stayed there until rotation in October 2011 (Innistrad launch). It gained slowly, but didn't really start picking up until October of 2012 (Return to Ravnica), where it had a steady (and rather steep) climb until very recently.
You can expect that the current batch of fetches will probably follow a similar pattern. Prices will fall to their lowest around when the second Khans set hit the shelves (market saturation of the first set), and then they will likely start to rebound around rotation time.
Wait for 2-3 weeks after release before buying. The price will drop unless a tier 1 deck emerges with foothills as a 4-of.
Unless you need them for early competition, your chance of winning that gamble is something like 5% or less. The vast majority of preorder singles end up being losers. Only a handful have been successful - New Nissa, Big Jace, Bonfire, Sphinx's Rev, Thundermaw Hellkite, etc. The list might look kind of big, but you've got to realize that every other rare and mythic besides these handful has fallen post-release. I caution against preorders unless you're really feeling lucky.
Where is he showing up in Legacy?
Doesn't matter. The presses will continue to print more until the prices return. This happened with ZEN as well. They will print until the demand is satisfied. The only time that you'll see box prices permanently jump is after they've stopped printing completely, which is what caused the huge WWK/Jace/Stoneforge spike. For those who don't remember, WWK was actually kind of underopened and unpopular at the beginning (pretty normal for a middle set), and then suddenly picked up near the end. Unfortunately, it picked up right after Wizards had started printing ROE and WWK had been retired, which resulted in a huge price jump on WWK that's been there ever since.
Most definitely, but that's at least a year or two after rotation. The target price for fetch foils while in standard is probably $20-30, but they will jump up each time Modern season comes around without a reprint.
It's worse than Reverberate, which also never amounted to much. It's too much of a win-more card. It's bulk.
That is precisely why they would sell for below $50. Not even Deathrite Shaman foils reached $50 before they were banned in Modern, and they were practically ubiquitous in Modern (and still are in Legacy).
It would more likely be 5/10/5, since the block is supposed to go large small large.
The obvious:
- Onslaught fetches drop in price
- New fetches start off high (at preorder time, just like 2009), then drop off as people realize "they'll keep printing this set for around a year, and it will be drafted for almost as long."
- If they aren't reprinted, ZEN fetches will be pulled down because of allied fetch alternatives now available. If they are, they will follow the same trajectory as the allied fetches.
The secondary effect:
- Cards that play well with fetches will go up.
- Due to the increased fetch supply, you'll begin to see a rise in other format staples to compensate for the lack of money in the fetches. I expect that ABU duals, Goyf, Clique, Wasteland, Force, etc. will all see an overall rise to compensate.
The interesting thing is that the amount of money that people are putting into Legacy and Modern isn't going to decrease because of this. Those who were invested in Modern and Legacy before will continue to be doing so. But since it will be cheaper to buy in on the fetches, the money that they would have spent there won't simply vanish - it will simply flow into other format staples instead. I don't think Modern and Legacy will get any cheaper; the market will correct itself.