My only issue with Affinity being at 10% is there are like 7 different builds of the deck now. 2 are aggro, 2 are tempo/controlish, 2 are mid rangy, and the last one is more like burn then affinity (could be classified as another aggro deck). Saying Affinity is 10% of the meta is a little miss leading.
Deck archetypes that share ~85%+ of their card base are often grouped together, whether we like it or not. Are these deck variants really so fundamentally different from each other? Or is it just a few sideboard flex slots that can take the Plan B to different places?
Maybe they are just not showing up in top 8's.
In the last month or since Kal/Revolt came out with the new tech Metallic Rebuke I have seen mono blue builds that are more controlish running rebuke, negates, spell pierce, and thoughtcasr. Saw this at a local PPTQ, just missed the top 8 of a 70 person event), blue white controlish versions, running mana tithe, rebuke, spell pierce, and dispatch (saw at the same PPTQ was in top 16 know he was in the money), 2 different blue black builds, both mid rangy, one running multiple Tezz's, the other running Disciple of the Vault. Both decks running counter magic main. Then there are the colorless aggro builds which are shown above. The red versions that play more like a burn deck, and the Rx decks that can convert from full aggro to control with side board.
The differences in the decks is pretty huge. Not only the cards played, but the style they are played.
I'm real curious where they are having modern PPTQs since the release of Aether Revolt, considering the last modern PPTQ season ended ~3-4 months before that set came out, and we won't have another modern season for a few more months. It's not even an option to run modern in this timeframe, which means either your claim is falsified to some extent OR there is a store that is breaking WPN policy and is in need of reporting.
I personally don't think that snapcaster should be unbanned, but I still expect it to happen at some point. Wotc has already mentioned several times about how they're worried about blue deck sin modern and snapcaster is the backbone of almost all of them. I really hope that I'm wrong about him, but I can't help but worry that he's going to leave at some point. Such is the problem of "aggressive bannings" just to shake up the format.
Where does this notion come from? Maybe if snapcaster mage decks start to hit 40%+ of the meta. I think we're past the point of thinking WotC says "let's ban something just to force change".
I don't think I agree that it has no business in faeries, the creature types on him are mostly irrelevant. As has been pointed out, he's blue's best source of card advantage, but that's maybe something they're trying to fix now, given the two blue delve cards coming out. With those two, and maybe an Ancestral Vision unban in the nearish future, maybe he will no longer be every blue deck's card advantage of choice. Even if he's pushing other cards out though, I'm not convinced it's that different from Goyf pushing out other green creatures.
I think people who have tested the artifact lands in affinity have pretty much concluded that they're busted.
Here Caleb Durward explains why he thinks the artifact lands are a safe unban, and I'd have to say I agree with him. Yes, it makes affinity slightly better, but also opens them up more to sideboard hate on top of them having to give up some of their manlands plus the ability to play whatever they want out of the sideboard.
Who said anything about selling them soon down the road? Even if Treasure Cruise ends up being the real deal in modern and legacy, AV will still see play in Legacy and EDH even if not in modern. I don't see it dropping below $7 or wherever it is right now. If the assumption is that it will probably be unbanned at some point over the next 4 months, and when/if it does it will probably do something similar to Bitterblossom and double-quadruple in price, isn't it just safer to buy them now if you know that you want them?
I bought them with the intent of using them when they get unbanned, not to resell a week after the announcement that might say "no changes".
Would it be stupid to pick up some Ancestral Visions? Last time I heard this much talk about a potential unbanning, it was in regard to Nacatl and Blossom. Given that AV is rare, I think the price will spike extremely high should an unbanning be announced.
It might be smarter to wait until closer to the January announcement I guess...
No reason not to if you can spare the cash. I just picked up 4 and 4 agent of bolas as both have the potential to spike insanely based off of the announcement. Neither is likely to ever dip below where they're at now.
There actually is something on the ban list for aggro decks: Artifact lands. It plays into the combo aspect of affinity, but isn't any aggro deck really just a broad combo deck? Think burn and the plan to just resolve 6 spells.
With cards like Galvanic Blast and Thoughtcast I wonder what would happen if they unbanned the red or blue artifact land.
After playing modern affinity for a few seasons, I tested legacy affinity.... It gave me a new perspective on how powerful artifact lands can be. But yes, too powerful.
I'm pretty sure the artifact lands are the only difference between modern affinity and legacy affinity. Should at least make it easy enough to test.....
Maybe ban Hexmage and unban Depths. I mean, the only way to use it effectively is with Thespian's Stage and getting both without Crop Rotation is hard. All of a sudden a new archetype is made without being broken.
But the question is do we really need yet another combo deck? If anything aggro and control need some help for diversity. If you want to play combo you have a number of tier 1 options.
Are you suggesting it wouldn't be a top tier combo deck? If so, what does it matter if it's legal? Why bother keeping it banned unless you're afraid it will warp the meta?
I think there are enough answers played commonly in modern that Marit Lage isn't necessarily the end of the game right there, plus a combo Depths list would be very fragile to disruption. You have to have so many specific cards, and use your first 2-3 turns and nothing else, in order to power out Marit Lage early. If your opponent has any answer to it, you lose, period. It's actually I think more parts to assemble than GriselCannon, which can actually win faster than Depths. I'm not sold that Hexmage/Depths as a combo deck would be that scary, though I admit I could be wrong....
Banning something just to shake up the meta seems like a really bad idea to me. DRS warranted a ban due to power, and I feel like nothing else right now is close to that level. I do, however, think that there are more safe unbans than just GGT and AV. I still believe that Dark Depths, Sword of the Meek, and maybe Bloodbraid Elf would be okay...
The real question to ask about AV, or any banned card for that matter, is the following:
Does it break the turn 4 win or overwhelming advantage rule?
Does it enable new archetypes or give help to decks that are not tier 1?
Will it make current decks too good?
Would it put aggro as an archetype in an even worse spot than it is now?
As I see it, AV doesn't break the turn 4 rule, it MIGHT enable bug control or bug midrange as a new deck to play, it would at the same time be a great help to many tier 2 decks such as faeries and various control decks. It is actually bad against aggro as you can easily be dead before a turn 1 visions does anything and if you draw it later than turn 1 it is a miserable top deck and is even worse when you're behind and under pressure. And lastly it does not make any current decks (that I can tell at least) too good. Am I missing anything or do you think I'm way off on something?
Seems to be about sum it up in my opinion...
Sadly I still don't see anything coming off the ban list after Khans. After Fate Reforged, which is just a few weeks before the next modern Pro Tour, would be the time I think they would unban/ban anything, though I think a banning is unlikely....
If AV were to be unbanned, it would cement the fact that UWR is the only thing resembling control for good in modern. The main reasons you have to go into black is for actual card draw (esper charm) But with AV there would be no need to cut the red at all. And with Khans focusing on wedges, which UWR falls into, it is unlikely that we'll have anything other than counter burn plus revelation to qualify as control in modern. That being said, I still firmly believe that AV is perfectly fine for modern and would give control the help that it needs. AV doesn't break any of the rules since it has suspend four, doesn't fit into any deck other than control, and brainstorm doesn't exist to abuse the cascade mechanic. I'm certain that it will come back at some point.
I'm on the fence as to whether I would try it in Scapeshift or not if it were unbanned. I do, however, think it would not force you to play UWR for control. Yes, you don't need Esper Charm as badly if you play that color combination, but there are other reasons to play that combination (Mystical Teachings, for example). Likewise I think Grixis control would still be a reasonable deck with the addition of AV....
Scalding Tarn and Verdant Catacombs will most likely move the least (unless people - rightfully - get scared of a reprint) because they are absolutely invaluable in a lot of "top tier" Modern decks like Jeskai (U/W/R) Control, Twin, Storm, Scapeshift, Jund, Abzan (G/B/W) Midrange and Golgari (B/G) Midrange.
Of course, those are just my casual predictions.
Scapeshift wants Misty, not Tarn. There is no reason to fetch a basic mountain in this deck that I've run into. There are cases where you may need to fetch for a basic forest. Misty is a slight upgrade over Tarn. Granted, you almost always want to get a Breeding Pool anyway with your first one, so you could likely play any Island fetch you have access to and be fine.
All rejoice with the return of fetches!!!! While this deck probably benefits the most from the return of fetches, it is important to keep in mind that the majority of other decks also get a bump up for this (possible new archetypes include Esper Fae, BUG midrange, Grixis Twin, and possibly a 3 color Delver) . Also, I'm still not a fan of Cruel Ultimatum as a finisher. But I am a huge fan of Sarkhan! This guy is the ultimate 5 drop! that is in an incredible finisher that just wreaks havoc on everything! The only thing that kills it is Path, which is not that common right now. I love the shake up that Khans is already creating!!! Is there anyone else in favor of at least trying Sarkhan 3.0 over Cruel Ultimatum?
No. If I want a five drop that I'm tapping out for I want it to either be Batterskull or Keranos, not Sarkhan. Sarkhan would only be good if we're already ahead, and is useless if we don't have complete control of the board as we can't do anything with it.
1 B/G and 1 pod (in top 8), no reason to continue the complain train that's been going on for the past few weeks. Glad to see some blue decks represented here though.
I think Verdant Catacombs and Scalding Tarn will go down the least, since BGx and URx decks are the most powerful decks in the format at present, alongside Affinity, which doesn't play any fetchlands anyway...
As for which ones will fall the most, I think that will be some combination of Arid Mesa and Misty Rainforest - RW and UG aren't particularly prevalent color combinations - in particular, the RUG decks will likely be swapping some Rainforests for Foothills, Pod will drop Rainforests for Heaths, and UWR will drop some Mesas for Strands.
Agreed like i said Arid mesa is only really in burn now and rainforest in scapeshift(maybe kiki pod?)(barring new archetypes).
Mesa and Rainforest will still be in 2 color decks like how Splinter Twin plays Rainforest.
Maybe, maybe not. Since UR Twin only gets islands off of a Misty, they could also play the much cheaper Flooded Strand or Polluted Delta. Players who already have Mistys may just stick to them, especially since it enables a single stomping ground pretty well, but players buying in now would likely take the new fetches instead....
Wouldn't a ban to shakeup the metagame most likely be preserved until just before a PT?
I think people would be pretty unhappy with such a thing though, bans should be to increase diversity not just to shift what decks are tier 1 and which are tier 2.
Makes sense to see one in January then, but I don't think it necessarily has to be a ban. Plus I see no reason, at this time, to ban anything. I do think there are plenty of cards that are potentially safe for an unban, it's just a question of which way WotC would want to go....
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I'm real curious where they are having modern PPTQs since the release of Aether Revolt, considering the last modern PPTQ season ended ~3-4 months before that set came out, and we won't have another modern season for a few more months. It's not even an option to run modern in this timeframe, which means either your claim is falsified to some extent OR there is a store that is breaking WPN policy and is in need of reporting.
Where does this notion come from? Maybe if snapcaster mage decks start to hit 40%+ of the meta. I think we're past the point of thinking WotC says "let's ban something just to force change".
Here Caleb Durward explains why he thinks the artifact lands are a safe unban, and I'd have to say I agree with him. Yes, it makes affinity slightly better, but also opens them up more to sideboard hate on top of them having to give up some of their manlands plus the ability to play whatever they want out of the sideboard.
I bought them with the intent of using them when they get unbanned, not to resell a week after the announcement that might say "no changes".
No reason not to if you can spare the cash. I just picked up 4 and 4 agent of bolas as both have the potential to spike insanely based off of the announcement. Neither is likely to ever dip below where they're at now.
I'm pretty sure the artifact lands are the only difference between modern affinity and legacy affinity. Should at least make it easy enough to test.....
Are you suggesting it wouldn't be a top tier combo deck? If so, what does it matter if it's legal? Why bother keeping it banned unless you're afraid it will warp the meta?
I think there are enough answers played commonly in modern that Marit Lage isn't necessarily the end of the game right there, plus a combo Depths list would be very fragile to disruption. You have to have so many specific cards, and use your first 2-3 turns and nothing else, in order to power out Marit Lage early. If your opponent has any answer to it, you lose, period. It's actually I think more parts to assemble than GriselCannon, which can actually win faster than Depths. I'm not sold that Hexmage/Depths as a combo deck would be that scary, though I admit I could be wrong....
Seems to be about sum it up in my opinion...
Sadly I still don't see anything coming off the ban list after Khans. After Fate Reforged, which is just a few weeks before the next modern Pro Tour, would be the time I think they would unban/ban anything, though I think a banning is unlikely....
I'm on the fence as to whether I would try it in Scapeshift or not if it were unbanned. I do, however, think it would not force you to play UWR for control. Yes, you don't need Esper Charm as badly if you play that color combination, but there are other reasons to play that combination (Mystical Teachings, for example). Likewise I think Grixis control would still be a reasonable deck with the addition of AV....
Scapeshift wants Misty, not Tarn. There is no reason to fetch a basic mountain in this deck that I've run into. There are cases where you may need to fetch for a basic forest. Misty is a slight upgrade over Tarn. Granted, you almost always want to get a Breeding Pool anyway with your first one, so you could likely play any Island fetch you have access to and be fine.
No. If I want a five drop that I'm tapping out for I want it to either be Batterskull or Keranos, not Sarkhan. Sarkhan would only be good if we're already ahead, and is useless if we don't have complete control of the board as we can't do anything with it.
Maybe, maybe not. Since UR Twin only gets islands off of a Misty, they could also play the much cheaper Flooded Strand or Polluted Delta. Players who already have Mistys may just stick to them, especially since it enables a single stomping ground pretty well, but players buying in now would likely take the new fetches instead....
Makes sense to see one in January then, but I don't think it necessarily has to be a ban. Plus I see no reason, at this time, to ban anything. I do think there are plenty of cards that are potentially safe for an unban, it's just a question of which way WotC would want to go....